fundamentals here for borisjohnson in your view haven't really changed, even after an eventful day like today. what did you mean by that? there has been a lot of drama today, big interventions of the house of commons, a deflection which is a very unusual event, but those fundamentals are, you know, there has been lots of distress among the public about revelations about what's been happening in there during the pandemic, we know there is a deep well of concern and anger in the conservative parliamentary party too, and remember why that matters so much, is because it is tory mps who have the power to decide what might be next, and we know that some of them, we don't know that some of them, we don't know how many, but some of them have submitted those secret letters to call for a vote of no confidence that could see borisjohnson out of office. but we also know today, and i think we saw real signs of that in the house of commons today, we know that boris johnson the house of commons today, we know that borisjohnson is determined to try to hang on. but for all of those different factors we know what might

happen next could be decisive, and thatis happen next could be decisive, and that is the official inquiry from the senior official sue gray, which is likely to report at the beginning of next week, she is likely to provide the details about exactly what was happening behind the black door through the emergency of the pandemic, those gatherings, drinks do is, or parties, that verdict will provide another decision point for the conservative party. and i think it's really only then when that emerges that we will have something of a conclusion over whether or not what so many tory mps say in private, that they don't believe borisjohnson can stay private, that they don't believe boris johnson can stay for that private, that they don't believe borisjohnson can stay for that much longer, are they really willing to actually take the kind of decisive action that could end the premiership of someone who won a huge victory at a general election only two years ago? that's something that only done i could not that long ago would have seemed like a fantasy but it is something that could be a reality before too long. yet at the

same time, if we have learned anything over all this time we have talked about politics in the last few years, things are very, very unpredictable. the mood in westminster today has been pretty chaotic and it is very hard to be sure what will actually happen next. laura, we will see what the next few days bring. thank you very much. laura kuenssberg with her analysis in downing street once again. that's it from us. newsnight is on bbc two with more analysis but here on bbc one time for the news where you are. from all of hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are tom newton—dunn from times radio and polly mackenzie from the think tank demos. tomorrow's front pages.

starting with the bury times, who broke the story that local conservative mp christian wakeford had defected to the labour party. the financial times says the pm has gained some time after wakeford's defection — which has rallied some support among his own mps. the metro, meanwhile, reports on the easing of restrictions that will see people return to working in the office, as well as former cabinet minister david davis�* call for borisjohnson to go. the daily telegraph has spoken to david davis — he's told the paper the pm would have to be dragged "kicking and screaming" from office. the i sastohnson is clinging to power amidst more potential defections and calls for him to quit. the guardian has a similar story on david davis�* call for borisjohnson to go and christian wakeford's defection — they report that tory critics are now happy to wait

for the results of sue gray's inquiry. the sun has a pun about the pork pie plot. there is a pie chart depicting the pm's position. see what they did there? let's begin now with the metro, shall we? any thanks to both of you forjoining me this evening. tom, if i could turn to you first, we have picked out this front page from the metro because they very nicely sit together these two major stories of the day. at the top, we have david davis and borisjohnson and the words that mr davis divorced johnson in the final hours of pmqs this morning, quoting cromwell, in the name of god, go, and just below it, return to the office, a reference to the government announcements that plan b is due to be phased out —— mr

davis put tojohnson. which is the bigger story? davis put tojohnson. which is the biggerstory? i davis put to johnson. which is the bigger story?— bigger story? i think the return to office of the _ bigger story? i think the return to office of the bigger _ bigger story? i think the return to office of the bigger story, - bigger story? i think the return to office of the bigger story, other i office of the bigger story, other papers leading on borisjohnson, david davis, christian wakefield's defection, so it's a toss—up. it is a toss—up. i don't know which one i would pick. it was an incredible hour of high drama, that christian wakefield defection for defections happen in politics quite often, you get them in times of real trouble for the government, we have not had one for a long while. labour told just before pmqs to do it. david davis, an absolute thunderbolt from the blue there, standing up and giving a very powerful quote said by a backbencher to neville

chamberlain, a triggerfor him to resign, and it was churchill who took over. it was an incredible day. i spent a few hours in the house of commons is afternoon. infinitely nervy moments where nobody knew what was what happened next. oddly, tory mps did not want to talk to us for very long, because they did i want to lay their bets. that very hour, they didn't know what ours is going to happen next. high they didn't know what ours is going to happen next-— they didn't know what ours is going to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were _ to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were all _ to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were all with _ to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were all with the _ to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were all with the house - to happen next. high day of drama. i think we were all with the house of. think we were all with the house of commons speaker, under the end of his breath, muttering, "what a day!" which do you think is the biggest story, pauly? which do you think is the biggest story. pauly?— story, pauly? that is the great question- _ story, pauly? that is the great question. boris _ story, pauly? that is the great question. boris johnson - story, pauly? that is the great - question. boris johnson attempted to move the _ question. boris johnson attempted to move the conversation on today stop he was _ move the conversation on today stop he was very— move the conversation on today stop he was very different at princes questions — he was very different at princes questions that he was yesterday, when _ questions that he was yesterday, when he — questions that he was yesterday, when he gave out these unfortunate

quotes _ when he gave out these unfortunate quotes -- _ when he gave out these unfortunate quotes -- at — when he gave out these unfortunate quotes —— at prime minister's questions _ quotes —— at prime minister's questions. this was a different boris _ questions. this was a different borisjohnson. first of questions. this was a different boris johnson. first of all, questions. this was a different borisjohnson. first of all, very belligerent and aggressive, basically deflecting all of the questions about parties to the reference to these two great inquiry and moving back onto the what he believes _ and moving back onto the what he believes is— and moving back onto the what he believes is the government's shiny policy— believes is the government's shiny policy record, and then as part of — i policy record, and then as part of — i don't _ policy record, and then as part of — i don't know— policy record, and then as part of — i don't know if we are still calling it operation red meat — going straight — it operation red meat — going straight out of pmqs into this mess of winding — straight out of pmqs into this mess of winding back of covid restrictions, a hope that that will boost _ restrictions, a hope that that will boost economic growth, a hope that it will, _ boost economic growth, a hope that it will, crucially, appealed to conservative number of parliament, to whom _ conservative number of parliament, to whom he — conservative number of parliament, to whom he has been saying this week, _ to whom he has been saying this week, sure, i screwed up, basically, they backed — week, sure, i screwed up, basically, they backed me because of my record.

what they— they backed me because of my record. what they are saying is, on the big calls, _ what they are saying is, on the big calls, i_ what they are saying is, on the big calls, i got— what they are saying is, on the big calls, i got it right. that is why we, _ calls, i got it right. that is why we, basically, are going to be first out of— we, basically, are going to be first out of covid — we, basically, are going to be first out of covid restrictions, the first country _ out of covid restrictions, the first country back to normal. i think it is clear— country back to normal. i think it is clear that _ country back to normal. i think it is clear that is being driven, in part— is clear that is being driven, in part by, — is clear that is being driven, in part by, relatively good signs in the data. — part by, relatively good signs in the data, but there is still more than _ the data, but there is still more than 300 — the data, but there is still more than 300 deaths announced today, so it is also— than 300 deaths announced today, so it is also very much driven by the politics. — it is also very much driven by the politics. by— it is also very much driven by the politics, by the need to shore up the views— politics, by the need to shore up the views of his backbenchers in particular. — the views of his backbenchers in particular, conservative activists. what _ particular, conservative activists. what is _ particular, conservative activists. what is odd about that, though, is that covid — what is odd about that, though, is that covid restrictions, while they are nowhere near as popular as they were in_ are nowhere near as popular as they were in the — are nowhere near as popular as they were in the height of the pandemic, nevertheless remain more popular with older— nevertheless remain more popular with older voters who of course tended to vote conservative. as a great don grassroots strategy, i am not sure it is the — grassroots strategy, i am not sure it is the greatest of offers and stop _ it is the greatest of offers and stop what you are not the first person — stop what you are not the first person i've spoken to this evening

who have — person i've spoken to this evening who have questioned the timing of the government announcements today to the government announcements today t. ,.., ., the government announcements today to scale down the plan. let's move the financial _ to scale down the plan. let's move the financial times, _ to scale down the plan. let's move the financial times, testament - to scale down the plan. let's move the financial times, testament to | the financial times, testament to how big a deal pmqs was this morning, that it is the story that dominates all of the papers. again, it is the main story on the financial times. they had this wonderful image of christian wakefield, after he crossed the house, sitting directly behind sir keir starmer in his unionjack facemask, but the paper makes the point, and what you both make of this, that he somewhat misread the mood of the tory party and of the house? that is moving across the house? that is moving across the house has rallied the tory party behind borisjohnson? tom, and what do you make of that? i can behind boris johnson? tom, and what do you make of that?— do you make of that? i can tell you, the drama got _ do you make of that? i can tell you, the drama got even _ do you make of that? i can tell you, the drama got even more _ do you make of that? i can tell you, the drama got even more exciting i the drama got even more exciting than that incredible moment of christian wakefield taking his seat

opposite. remember, 360, at least some of them, he counted as close friends before he walked into the house of commons when the news was announced, courtesy of the bury times, i am sure come to. such was the shock — he was a 2019 redwall mp — some left in tears because of what their friend would do. — some left in tears because of what theirfriend would do. what — some left in tears because of what their friend would do. what that then precipitated, which is the point of the ft�*s headline, is that while there was huge anger with borisjohnson and there remains huge anger with borisjohnson, subtly the panic started dropping quite rapidly with his own mps, is 2019 intake, who are most angry with him, that this was now a real threat to the tory party's survival in government. you had their own brethren crossing

the floor to labour, reducing their majority by two the moment that happens. that had an effect on all them, and subtly that did have a rousing effect. you saw some mps withdrawing their letters, but certainly it did bolster the prime minister a little bit. all i would say about that is, will the prime minister is safer tonight than he was this morning, it is not want to last. tories rally, if they circle the wagons when they have a shock like this, but that shock wears off in a couple of days. one of yours has left for labour, because he believes he has a more realistic chance of getting elected on their side. in the short term, it might just buy him some time. interested in our just buy him some time. interested in your predictions _ just buy him some time. interested in your predictions as _ just buy him some time. interested in your predictions as well, - just buy him some time. interested in your predictions as well, and - just buy him some time. interested in your predictions as well, and you j in your predictions as well, and you think that christian wakefield and david davis, if they misread the mood in the house? i david davis, if they misread the

mood in the house?— david davis, if they misread the mood in the house? i think they both would have expected _ mood in the house? i think they both would have expected to _ mood in the house? i think they both would have expected to go _ mood in the house? i think they both would have expected to go in - mood in the house? i think they both would have expected to go in the - would have expected to go in the other— would have expected to go in the other directions, ratherthan, as tom _ other directions, ratherthan, as tom says. — other directions, ratherthan, as tom says. it— other directions, ratherthan, as tom says, it triggering a partisan desire _ tom says, it triggering a partisan desire to — tom says, it triggering a partisan desire to circle of baggins, but 'ust desire to circle of baggins, but just to — desire to circle of baggins, but just to channel dominic cummings, it demands— just to channel dominic cummings, it demands on— just to channel dominic cummings, it demands on how many dimensions you were going _ demands on how many dimensions you were going to play chess in —— circle — were going to play chess in —— circle the _ were going to play chess in —— circle the wagons. probably it is better— circle the wagons. probably it is better for— circle the wagons. probably it is better for the labour party if boris johnson _ better for the labour party if boris johnson sticks around for a bit, and so buying _ johnson sticks around for a bit, and so buying the prime minister time might— so buying the prime minister time might feel good if you're boris johnson. — might feel good if you're boris johnson, but if you are thinking about— johnson, but if you are thinking about the — johnson, but if you are thinking about the interest of the conservative party, and the question whether— conservative party, and the question whether the quite substantial toxicity — whether the quite substantial toxicity now surrounding the prime minister— toxicity now surrounding the prime minister because of his integrity, a belief— minister because of his integrity, a belief that — minister because of his integrity, a belief that half of conservative voters — belief that half of conservative voters in — belief that half of conservative voters in one post suggesting that they do— voters in one post suggesting that they do not believe borisjohnson is telling _ they do not believe borisjohnson is telling the — they do not believe borisjohnson is telling the truth — half of your own voters? _ telling the truth — half of your own voters? that is massive. but does that stretch — voters? that is massive. but does that stretch out to a contagion about — that stretch out to a contagion about the _ that stretch out to a contagion about the whole conservative party? or can _ about the whole conservative party?

or can the _ about the whole conservative party? or can the cabinet, the 2019 and all of this— or can the cabinet, the 2019 and all of this generation of mps protect themselves by getting rid of him? if he stays around for weeks and weeks more. if— he stays around for weeks and weeks more. if he _ he stays around for weeks and weeks more, if he stays around all the way to the _ more, if he stays around all the way to the may— more, if he stays around all the way to the may elections, doesn't that potentially help the labour party? it is potentially help the labour party? it is not _ potentially help the labour party? it is not as— potentially help the labour party? it is not as simple as saying that the best— it is not as simple as saying that the best thing for keir starmer is for borisjohnson to the best thing for keir starmer is for boris johnson to go the best thing for keir starmer is for borisjohnson to go in the best thing for keir starmer is for boris johnson to go in the next 24 hours — for boris johnson to go in the next 24 hours. ., �* , for boris johnson to go in the next 24 hours. . �*, ,~' , for boris johnson to go in the next 24 hours. ., �*, , ., 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the j. 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the i- we — 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the i- we not _ 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the j. it's not the _ 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the j. it's not the same _ 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the j. it's not the same top - 24 hours. yeah, ok, let's skip over the j. it's not the same top story, | the i. it's not the same top story, unsurprisingly, a picture of boris johnson there. also a reference in the top right—hand corner to the inflation data, more than double the bank of england's target of 2%, almost its highest level for years. let's move onto the guardian again, the top story, pmqs putting david davis, invoking the ghost of a bygone era which i presume he had hoped to appeal to his historian like, borisjohnson, quoting, in the

name of god, go! the guardian also making the point the conservative party waiting with baited breath for sucre's report. how significant is that report going to be —— sue gray's report? it that report going to be -- sue gray's report?— that report going to be -- sue gray's report? it is going to be everything. — gray's report? it is going to be everything. quite _ gray's report? it is going to be everything, quite frankly. - gray's report? it is going to be everything, quite frankly. the | gray's report? it is going to be - everything, quite frankly. the mood in the tory party, the majority, anyway, was to wait to see what sucre had to say. today... anything can happen these days, especially in the parliament or conservative party, but i don't think the magic number of 53 now that christian we thought has gone will be triggered, to have that next week, but... something else we don't know in the report or something that emerges after the report, perhaps from the e—mail inbox of dominic

cummings, that reveals prime minister has not been fully honest about everything. all that is a big if, but everything hangs on what sue gray now says and what happens after sue gray. it is incredibly difficult for the prime minister, a minister who is a big ally of porsche onto described it to me as threading a needle in a snowstorm. he has to get everything right —— a minister who is a huge ally of borisjohnson described it to me. i put his chances of surviving a month at 5050, i would go 51—49 either way. what do you make of that? where would you put your predictions? and how important you think this long—awaited sue gray report really is? i long-awaited sue gray report really is? ~ . ., long-awaited sue gray report really is? ~ , ., ., , ., , is? i think it is going to be really important. _ is? i think it is going to be really important. but _ is? i think it is going to be really important, but it _ is? i think it is going to be really important, but it will— is? i think it is going to be really important, but it will also - is? i think it is going to be really important, but it will also be, i. important, but it will also be, i think. — important, but it will also be, i think, more dullthan important, but it will also be, i think, more dull than we are somehow done after— think, more dull than we are somehow done after it _ think, more dull than we are somehow done after it has been talked up as

if it