hello and welcome to the programme which brings together some of the uk's leading columnists, bbc specialists and the foreign correspondents who write, blog and broadcast to their audiences back home from the dateline london. this week, borisjohnson�*s stay of execution, the uk's inflation problem, and whyjoe biden has a problem keeping nato allies on side over ukraine. to discuss all that we're joined by marc roche, an economist and correspondent with the french news magazine, le point. isabel hilton, whose distinguished

as a foreign corerespondent has been followe by founding hina dialogue, improving understanding of china's —— followed by founding china dialogue, improving understanding of china's environmental challenges. here in the studio, the bbc�*s business editor simonjack. make business editor simonjack. welcome to all of you. have make welcome to all of you. good to have ou make welcome to all of you. good to have you with _ make welcome to all of you. good to have you with us. _ it's official, everything in the uk is going up — the number of conservative mps demanding a vote on whether to replace the prime minister, the number of labour mps after this week's defection, and the odds on borisjohnson surviving in office. none of that can be blamed on inflation, which has hit a near 30—year high more on that later. the parlous state of mrjohnson�*s fortunes was laid bare in two appearances this week. challenged repeatedly in a tv interview about parties in downing street during covid lockdowns, the prime minister said "no one had told him" they were against the rules his government had imposed. a day later, despairing at this response, a veteran mp repeated to the prime minister's face the words used to despatch one of his hapless predecessors 80 years ago. "you have sat there too long for all the good you have done.

in the name of god, go". mark, how it you explaining to boris johnson's plate to your readers and the people who looked at le point? there is enormous interest in terms of his personality in france because brexit and because he's been a terrible partner in post—brexit negotiation. so i'm trying to explain to french readers first the rule of —— role of parliament and how important it is in the uk compared to france where it's less important. and try also to explain the feeling of entitlement of the upper classes in this country where there is a rule for some and a rule for other areas, and what i'm trying

to explain is where you have top civil servants going to the supermarket to buy cheap rose and cheap cheese and boozing the whole evening altogether. in france, that would never happen because you take wine with a meal and good wine to me that's what civil servants will do in france. 50 that's what civil servants will do in france. h that's what civil servants will do in france-— in france. so it's appalling on every level— in france. so it's appalling on every level as _ in france. so it's appalling on every level as far _ in france. so it's appalling on every level as far as - in france. so it's appalling on every level as far as your - in france. so it's appalling on - every level as far as your readers are concerned. every level as far as your readers are concerned-— every level as far as your readers are concerned. yes, and of course, as far as my _ are concerned. yes, and of course, as far as my readers _ are concerned. yes, and of course, as far as my readers are _ are concerned. yes, and of course, | as far as my readers are concerned, as far as my readers are concerned, as soon as borisjohnson goes, the better it is for the eu and the uk. is there not some advantage in having a prime minister like him from france?— having a prime minister like him from france? ., , ., from france? know, there is none. you know. — from france? know, there is none. you know. you _ from france? know, there is none. you know, you want _ from france? know, there is none. you know, you want a _ from france? know, there is none. you know, you want a good - you know, you want a good relationship and you want a good relationship and you want a good relationship with britain because all the terrible challenges we are all the terrible challenges we are

all facing. i5 all the terrible challenges we are all facina. , ., ,., all the terrible challenges we are all facin. , ., ., all facing. is about some of the quotation _ all facing. is about some of the quotation i _ all facing. is about some of the quotation i mention _ all facing. is about some of the quotation i mention delivered l all facing. is about some of the l quotation i mention delivered by david davis, the words of the ally of winston churchill aimed at neville chamberlain who is going very soon after. that must�*ve really hurt for a prime minister who day fis churchill. the hurt for a prime minister who day fis churchill.— hurt for a prime minister who day fis churchill. the amount indeed. david davis _ fis churchill. the amount indeed. david davis knew— fis churchill. the amount indeed. david davis knew that _ fis churchill. the amount indeed. david davis knew that it _ fis churchill. the amount indeed. david davis knew that it would - fis churchill. the amount indeed. | david davis knew that it would hurt because he said before he delivered this line with which borisjohnson was familiar. our stance and then pretended he didn't know what he was talking about, which rather raises the question _ talking about, which rather raises the question did _ talking about, which rather raises the question did boris _ talking about, which rather raises the question did boris johnson i the question did borisjohnson actuaiiy— the question did borisjohnson actually write the question did borisjohnson actually write that biography of churchill that carries his name, because — churchill that carries his name, because if— churchill that carries his name, because if he did, there is no way from _ because if he did, there is no way from knowing that quotation from oliver _ from knowing that quotation from oliver cromwell. dismissed the wrong parliament_ oliver cromwell. dismissed the wrong parliament in 1653. oliver cromwell is a fabulous source of quotations. he does_ is a fabulous source of quotations. he does rather put our current

parliamentarians to shame. it's worth_ parliamentarians to shame. it's worth browsing through them. one of them, _ worth browsing through them. one of them, i_ worth browsing through them. one of them, i think perhaps borisjohnson might— them, i think perhaps borisjohnson might think about this. he did say, ithink_ might think about this. he did say, i think the — might think about this. he did say, i think the scottish presbyterian, in the _ i think the scottish presbyterian, in the name of god, you might be wrong _ in the name of god, you might be wronu. ., ., , , wrong. that would be very good advice for _ wrong. that would be very good advice for all _ wrong. that would be very good advice for all politicians - wrong. that would be very good l advice for all politicians perhaps, someone on the level with the figure that one roman emperor had saying you are not a god, you are not a god, you are mortal. which is a good reminder. . �* , . god, you are mortal. which is a good reminder. ., �* , ., ., . reminder. that's a great civil service job- _ reminder. that's a great civil service job. or _ reminder. that's a great civil service job. or the _ reminder. that's a great civil l service job. or the conscience, reminder. that's a great civil - service job. or the conscience, one service 'ob. or the conscience, one miaht service job. or the conscience, one might even — service job. or the conscience, one might even call— service job. or the conscience, one might even call it. _ service job. or the conscience, one might even call it. the _ service job. or the conscience, one might even call it. the prime - might even call it. the prime minister must be feeling a lot less like a roman emperor, a lot less like a roman emperor, a lot less like a roman emperor, a lot less like a french president, a lot less like a french president, a lot less like oliver cromwell right now. the communities for prime ministers has always been the business committee. i wonder about your dealings with the business community. and businesses are big and small in different areas, is there of you

about this government? has it got a defined relationship for business? idly for a conservative prime minister. _ idly for a conservative prime minister, he's _ idly for a conservative prime minister, he's actually - idly for a conservative prime minister, he's actually got. idly for a conservative prime i minister, he's actually got quite idly for a conservative prime - minister, he's actually got quite a fractious— minister, he's actually got quite a fractious relationship— minister, he's actually got quite a fractious relationship with - minister, he's actually got quite a fractious relationship with the - fractious relationship with the business _ fractious relationship with the business community. - fractious relationship with the business community. a - fractious relationship with the business community. a lot. fractious relationship with the business community. a lot of| fractious relationship with the - business community. a lot of that started _ business community. a lot of that started with — business community. a lot of that started with brexit. they- business community. a lot of that started with brexit. they weren'tl started with brexit. they weren't sure about — started with brexit. they weren't sure about the _ started with brexit. they weren't sure about the direction - started with brexit. they weren't sure about the direction going i started with brexit. they weren'tl sure about the direction going on, they didn't — sure about the direction going on, they didn't like _ sure about the direction going on, they didn't like uncertainty - sure about the direction going on, they didn't like uncertainty and i they didn't like uncertainty and there _ they didn't like uncertainty and there was— they didn't like uncertainty and there was plenty— they didn't like uncertainty and there was plenty of— they didn't like uncertainty and there was plenty of that. - they didn't like uncertainty and there was plenty of that. when they didn't like uncertainty and - there was plenty of that. when they express— there was plenty of that. when they express their — there was plenty of that. when they express their concerns, _ there was plenty of that. when they express their concerns, the - there was plenty of that. when they express their concerns, the famousl express their concerns, the famous four letter— express their concerns, the famous four letter apathetic _ express their concerns, the famous four letter apathetic he _ express their concerns, the famous four letter apathetic he sent - express their concerns, the famous four letter apathetic he sent in - four letter apathetic he sent in their— four letter apathetic he sent in their direction— four letter apathetic he sent in their direction about _ four letter apathetic he sent in their direction about their- their direction about their concerns _ their direction about their concerns. that— their direction about their concerns. that kind - their direction about their concerns. that kind of. their direction about their| concerns. that kind of set their direction about their- concerns. that kind of set the their direction about their— concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've _ concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've got — concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've got to — concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've got to remember— concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've got to remember also - concerns. that kind of set the tone. you've got to remember also that l concerns. that kind of set the tone. i you've got to remember also that the business _ you've got to remember also that the business community— you've got to remember also that the business community have _ you've got to remember also that the business community have seen - you've got to remember also that the business community have seen a - business community have seen a massive — business community have seen a massive increase _ business community have seen a massive increase in _ business community have seen a massive increase in taxes - business community have seen a massive increase in taxes whichl business community have seen a i massive increase in taxes which is going _ massive increase in taxes which is going to _ massive increase in taxes which is going to kick— massive increase in taxes which is going to kick and _ massive increase in taxes which is going to kick and in— massive increase in taxes which is going to kick and in april. - going to kick and in april. they've whacked — going to kick and in april. they've whacked corporation _ going to kick and in april. they've whacked corporation tax - going to kick and in april. they've whacked corporation tax up - going to kick and in april. they've whacked corporation tax up from i going to kick and in april. they've i whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%. _ whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%. undoing _ whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%, undoing and _ whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%, undoing and a _ whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%, undoing and a stroke - whacked corporation tax up from 19 to 25%, undoing and a stroke ten. to 25%, undoing and a stroke ten years of— to 25%, undoing and a stroke ten years of previous _ to 25%, undoing and a stroke ten years of previous conservative i years of previous conservative policy — years of previous conservative policy to — years of previous conservative policy to try _ years of previous conservative policy to try to _ years of previous conservative policy to try to get _ years of previous conservative policy to try to get taxes - years of previous conservative policy to try to get taxes low. i years of previous conservative . policy to try to get taxes low. the other _ policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing — policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing is— policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing is i_ policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing is i think— policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing is i think that- policy to try to get taxes low. the other thing is i think that he - other thing is i think that he genuinely. _ other thing is i think that he genuinely, boris _ other thing is i think that he genuinely, borisjohnson, . other thing is i think that he genuinely, borisjohnson, ii other thing is i think that he . genuinely, borisjohnson, i had other thing is i think that he - genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty— genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty of— genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty of speeches _ genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty of speeches that _ genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty of speeches that he's - genuinely, borisjohnson, i had seen plenty of speeches that he's given i plenty of speeches that he's given to businesses. _ plenty of speeches that he's given to businesses. he _ plenty of speeches that he's given to businesses. he finds _ plenty of speeches that he's given to businesses. he finds business. to businesses. he finds business people _ to businesses. he finds business people quite _ to businesses. he finds business people quite tedious, _ to businesses. he finds business people quite tedious, anything. i to businesses. he finds businessi people quite tedious, anything. i think— people quite tedious, anything. i think he — people quite tedious, anything. i think he thinks— people quite tedious, anything. i think he thinks that _ people quite tedious, anything. i think he thinks that their- people quite tedious, anything. i think he thinks that their world l people quite tedious, anything. i| think he thinks that their world of risk analysis— think he thinks that their world of risk analysis and _ think he thinks that their world of risk analysis and spreadsheets i

think he thinks that their world of| risk analysis and spreadsheets and financial— risk analysis and spreadsheets and financial commitment— risk analysis and spreadsheets and financial commitment or _ risk analysis and spreadsheets and | financial commitment or whatever, boring _ financial commitment or whatever, boring at— financial commitment or whatever, boring at best. _ financial commitment or whatever, boring at best, almost _ financial commitment or whatever, boring at best, almost cowardly . financial commitment or whatever, boring at best, almost cowardly at| boring at best, almost cowardly at worst _ boring at best, almost cowardly at worst with — boring at best, almost cowardly at worst with a _ boring at best, almost cowardly at worst. with a fair— boring at best, almost cowardly at worst. with a fair wind _ boring at best, almost cowardly at worst. with a fair wind that - boring at best, almost cowardly at worst. with a fair wind that kind i boring at best, almost cowardly ati worst. with a fair wind that kind of boosters _ worst. with a fair wind that kind of boosters we — worst. with a fair wind that kind of boosters we talked _ worst. with a fair wind that kind of boosters we talked about. - worst. with a fair wind that kind of boosters we talked about. why- worst. with a fair wind that kind of. boosters we talked about. why can't we all _ boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust _ boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust qet — boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust get on— boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust get on side. _ boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust get on side. having - boosters we talked about. why can't we alljust get on side. having said i we alljust get on side. having said that, _ we alljust get on side. having said that, they— we alljust get on side. having said that, they don't _ we alljust get on side. having said that, they don't like _ we alljust get on side. having said that, they don't like uncertainty. . that, they don't like uncertainty. delivering — that, they don't like uncertainty. delivering an _ that, they don't like uncertainty. delivering an 80 _ that, they don't like uncertainty. delivering an 80 seat _ that, they don't like uncertainty. delivering an 80 seat majority, ij delivering an 80 seat majority, i think— delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this — delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is _ delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is over— delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is over for— delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is over for a _ delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is over for a while. - delivering an 80 seat majority, i think this is over for a while. it i think this is over for a while. it will be — think this is over for a while. it will be a — think this is over for a while. it will be a stable _ think this is over for a while. it will be a stable period. - think this is over for a while. it will be a stable period. even. think this is over for a while. it will be a stable period. even if| will be a stable period. even if we don't _ will be a stable period. even if we don't like — will be a stable period. even if we don't like everything _ will be a stable period. even if we don't like everything about - will be a stable period. even if we don't like everything about it, - will be a stable period. even if wel don't like everything about it, they will be _ don't like everything about it, they will be some — don't like everything about it, they will be some political— don't like everything about it, they will be some political stability. - will be some political stability. that's — will be some political stability. that's why _ will be some political stability. that's why this _ will be some political stability. that's why this is _ will be some political stability. that's why this is throwing - will be some political stability. | that's why this is throwing that into sharp _ that's why this is throwing that into sharp relief. _ that's why this is throwing that into sharp relief. there's - that's why this is throwing that into sharp relief. there's two . into sharp relief. there's two things— into sharp relief. there's two things going _ into sharp relief. there's two things going on _ into sharp relief. there's two things going on here, - into sharp relief. there's two things going on here, the - into sharp relief. there's ton things going on here, the one into sharp relief. there's two - things going on here, the one where boris _ things going on here, the one where borisjohnson — things going on here, the one where borisjohnson in _ things going on here, the one where borisjohnson in parliament- things going on here, the one where boris johnson in parliament and - things going on here, the one where borisjohnson in parliament and hisl borisjohnson in parliament and his own mps _ borisjohnson in parliament and his own mps. remember, _ borisjohnson in parliament and his own mps. remember, local- borisjohnson in parliament and his . own mps. remember, local elections coming _ own mps. remember, local elections coming in_ own mps. remember, local elections coming in may— own mps. remember, local elections coming in may when _ own mps. remember, local elections coming in may when he _ own mps. remember, local elections coming in may when he will— own mps. remember, local elections coming in may when he will have - own mps. remember, local elections coming in may when he will have to l coming in may when he will have to face the _ coming in may when he will have to face the country _ coming in may when he will have to face the country and _ coming in may when he will have to face the country and we _ coming in may when he will have to face the country and we will - coming in may when he will have to face the country and we will know. face the country and we will know that all— face the country and we will know that all of— face the country and we will know that all of that — face the country and we will know that all of that stuff _ face the country and we will know that all of that stuff that - face the country and we will know that all of that stuff that mark - face the country and we will know| that all of that stuff that mark has been _ that all of that stuff that mark has been writing — that all of that stuff that mark has been writing about, _ that all of that stuff that mark has been writing about, and _ that all of that stuff that mark has been writing about, and others, . that all of that stuff that mark hasj been writing about, and others, is actually— been writing about, and others, is actually a — been writing about, and others, is actually a political— been writing about, and others, is actually a political liability- been writing about, and others, is actually a political liability are - actually a political liability are not _ actually a political liability are not. , ., ., ,., not. the unusualthing about scandals these _ not. the unusualthing about scandals these days - not. the unusualthing about scandals these days is - not. the unusualthing about scandals these days is they l not. the unusual thing about l scandals these days is they are not. the unusual thing about - scandals these days is they are not just a case of allegations of he said she said and the other side

denying it. there is evidence and durable evidence. technology has come into play in this story in a way that presumably explains why we are even having the inquiry that everybody is waiting for air before delivering the verdict on whether or not the prime minister knew about parties and light about parties. the guardian is reporting that an e—mail that was— guardian is reporting that an e—mail that was sent warning boris johnson not to— that was sent warning boris johnson not to hold — that was sent warning boris johnson not to hold this party, warning against — not to hold this party, warning against a — not to hold this party, warning against a party in question has been made _ against a party in question has been made available. and so much of what happens _ made available. and so much of what happens now, the conspiracies, the factions— happens now, the conspiracies, the factions and — happens now, the conspiracies, the factions and the plots happens on whatsapp groups and happens on signal— whatsapp groups and happens on signal and happens in e—mail. the difficulty— signal and happens in e—mail. the difficulty is, — signal and happens in e—mail. the difficulty is, the inquiry has no powers— difficulty is, the inquiry has no powers to _ difficulty is, the inquiry has no powers to call for evidence, such as rather— powers to call for evidence, such as rather reliant on this evidence. it's rather reliant on this evidence. it's rather— rather reliant on this evidence. it's rather selective to me. one of these _ it's rather selective to me. one of these notorious parties was given in

honour— these notorious parties was given in honour of— these notorious parties was given in honour of the departure of the head of communications who went on to be deputy— of communications who went on to be deputy editor of the sun, where you would _ deputy editor of the sun, where you would assume a key nuisance would prevail, _ would assume a key nuisance would prevail, but— would assume a key nuisance would prevail, but unaccountably has not reported _ prevail, but unaccountably has not reported were indeed published any of the _ reported were indeed published any of the e—mails connected with his own farewell party. yes, there is evidence, — own farewell party. yes, there is evidence, but getting hold of it unless — evidence, but getting hold of it unless you are the police or have judicial— unless you are the police or have judicial authority is not a given. and the — judicial authority is not a given. and the police have famously said that that they will only investigate if the cabinet office, in other words a branch of government tells them that they should investigate, so presumably the police are also waiting for the report as well. do you have any hope that the affair johnson will be resolved in the coming week?— johnson will be resolved in the coming week? johnson will be resolved in the comint week? ~ ., ~ coming week? well, no. ithink, asi said, this official— coming week? well, no. ithink, asi said, this official report _ coming week? well, no. ithink, asi said, this official report will - coming week? well, no. ithink, asi said, this official report will be - coming week? well, no. ithink, asi said, this official report will be a - said, this official report will be a whitewash. i think all of these tories, people of hostile conservative mps who fizzled out, but the fact is that boris johnson,

if he hasn't lied to parliament, then they will have to go, but he will be a lame—duck prime minister like teresa mae, john major and to a certain extent, and that means that none of his big policies, especially equality between regions can really be successful.— equality between regions can really be successful. mark, thank you very much. in december, inflation rose to 5.4% up from 5.1% the previous month. it's the highest figure since march 1992. food, clothing, and household goods all rose. the bank of england, the uk's central bank predicts inflation hitting 6% by april. that's also the month in which the energy cap will be revised to reflect the spike in wholesale gas prices. simon, how painful is this going to

get, do you think? it’s get, do you think? it's awful, actually- _ get, do you think? it's awful, actually- i — get, do you think? it's awful, actually. i think _ get, do you think? it's awful, actually. i think for _ get, do you think? it's awful, actually. i think for all - get, do you think? it's awful, actually. i think for all of - get, do you think? it's awful, actually. i think for all of this | actually. i think for all of this political chicanery_ actually. i think for all of this political chicanery that - actually. i think for all of this political chicanery that we i actually. i think for all of this| political chicanery that we are seeing, — political chicanery that we are seeing, there— political chicanery that we are seeing, there is— political chicanery that we are seeing, there is nothing - political chicanery that we are j seeing, there is nothing more difficult — seeing, there is nothing more difficult for — seeing, there is nothing more difficult for a _ seeing, there is nothing more difficult for a government - seeing, there is nothing more. difficult for a government when seeing, there is nothing more - difficult for a government when it citizens— difficult for a government when it citizens are — difficult for a government when it citizens are actually _ difficult for a government when it citizens are actually getting - difficult for a government when it citizens are actually getting a - difficult for a government when it citizens are actually getting a biti citizens are actually getting a bit poorer _ citizens are actually getting a bit poorer every _ citizens are actually getting a bit poorer every day _ citizens are actually getting a bit poorer every day because - citizens are actually getting a bit poorer every day because of- citizens are actually getting a bit poorer every day because of the| citizens are actually getting a bit - poorer every day because of the cost of living _ poorer every day because of the cost of living is _ poorer every day because of the cost of living is going _ poorer every day because of the cost of living is going up _ poorer every day because of the cost of living is going up faster— poorer every day because of the cost of living is going up faster than- of living is going up faster than their— of living is going up faster than their wages— of living is going up faster than their wages and _ of living is going up faster than their wages and there - of living is going up faster than their wages and there is - of living is going up faster than their wages and there is no - of living is going up faster than- their wages and there is no evidence that i've _ their wages and there is no evidence that i've seen — their wages and there is no evidence that i've seen from _ their wages and there is no evidence that i've seen from talking _ their wages and there is no evidence that i've seen from talking to - their wages and there is no evidence that i've seen from talking to a - that i've seen from talking to a lot of industry— that i've seen from talking to a lot of industry leaders _ that i've seen from talking to a lot of industry leaders that _ that i've seen from talking to a lot of industry leaders that this - that i've seen from talking to a lot of industry leaders that this has i of industry leaders that this has tot of industry leaders that this has got any— of industry leaders that this has got any short—term _ of industry leaders that this has got any short—term fix. - of industry leaders that this has got any short—term fix. a - of industry leaders that this has got any short—term fix. a sharp| of industry leaders that this has - got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this— got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this is— got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this is a — got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this is a massive _ got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this is a massive rise _ got any short—term fix. a sharp and of this is a massive rise in- of this is a massive rise in wholesale _ of this is a massive rise in wholesale gas _ of this is a massive rise in wholesale gas prices. - of this is a massive rise in. wholesale gas prices. europe approached _ wholesale gas prices. europe approached this— wholesale gas prices. europe approached this season - wholesale gas prices. europe approached this season withl wholesale gas prices. europe i approached this season with low reserves — approached this season with low reserves you _ approached this season with low reserves. you got— approached this season with low reserves. you got the _ approached this season with low reserves. you got the world - approached this season with low- reserves. you got the world economy waking _ reserves. you got the world economy waking up _ reserves. you got the world economy waking up from — reserves. you got the world economy waking up from out _ reserves. you got the world economy waking up from out of— reserves. you got the world economy waking up from out of covid - reserves. you got the world economy waking up from out of covid related, i waking up from out of covid related, , and _ waking up from out of covid related, , and you've — waking up from out of covid related, , and you've got _ waking up from out of covid related, , and you've got asian _ waking up from out of covid related, , and you've got asian economies. , and you've got asian economies like china, — , and you've got asian economies like china, part _ , and you've got asian economies like china, part of— , and you've got asian economies like china, part of this— , and you've got asian economies like china, part of this is- , and you've got asian economies like china, part of this is to - like china, part of this is to do with— like china, part of this is to do with moving _ like china, part of this is to do with moving to _ like china, part of this is to do with moving to net _ like china, part of this is to do with moving to net zero. - like china, part of this is to do - with moving to net zero. everyone in the world _ with moving to net zero. everyone in the world has— with moving to net zero. everyone in the world has decided _ with moving to net zero. everyone in the world has decided that _ with moving to net zero. everyone in the world has decided that gas - with moving to net zero. everyone in the world has decided that gas is - the world has decided that gas is their— the world has decided that gas is their transition— the world has decided that gas is their transition fuel— the world has decided that gas is their transition fuel to— the world has decided that gas is their transition fuel to get - the world has decided that gas is their transition fuel to get there i their transition fuel to get there at the _ their transition fuel to get there at the same _ their transition fuel to get there at the same time, _ their transition fuel to get there at the same time, and - their transition fuel to get there at the same time, and that- their transition fuel to get there i at the same time, and that means everyone — at the same time, and that means everyone is— at the same time, and that means everyone is going _ at the same time, and that means everyone is going up, _ at the same time, and that means everyone is going up, a _ at the same time, and that means everyone is going up, a —— - at the same time, and that means everyone is going up, a —— for- at the same time, and that means| everyone is going up, a —— for gas. so this— everyone is going up, a —— for gas. so this is— everyone is going up, a —— for gas. so this is absolutely— everyone is going up, a —— for gas. so this is absolutely crucial. - everyone is going up, a —— for gas. so this is absolutely crucial. lots . so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries _ so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries which _ so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries which rely _ so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries which rely on - so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries which rely on gas i so this is absolutely crucial. lots of countries which rely on gas to| of countries which rely on gas to make _ of countries which rely on gas to make electricity— of countries which rely on gas to make electricity are _ of countries which rely on gas to make electricity are seeing - of countries which rely on gas to make electricity are seeing this. j make electricity are seeing this.

government— make electricity are seeing this. government here _ make electricity are seeing this. government here under- make electricity are seeing this. . government here under enormous pressure — government here under enormous pressure there's _ government here under enormous pressure. there's been _ government here under enormous pressure. there's been different. pressure. there's been different measures. — pressure. there's been different measures, friends— pressure. there's been different measures, friends have - pressure. there's been different measures, friends have been i pressure. there's been different- measures, friends have been getting out 100 _ measures, friends have been getting out 100 euros— measures, friends have been getting out 100 euros tokens. _ measures, friends have been getting out 100 euros tokens. in _ measures, friends have been getting out 100 euros tokens. in spain- measures, friends have been getting out 100 euros tokens. in spain theyl out 100 euros tokens. in spain they have removed — out 100 euros tokens. in spain they have removed vat, _ out 100 euros tokens. in spain they have removed vat, so _ out100 euros tokens. in spain they have removed vat, so all— out 100 euros tokens. in spain they have removed vat, so all of - have removed vat, so all of these options _ have removed vat, so all of these options are — have removed vat, so all of these options are out— have removed vat, so all of these options are out there _ have removed vat, so all of these options are out there including - have removed vat, so all of these . options are out there including some sort of— options are out there including some sort of bailout — options are out there including some sort of bailout for _ options are out there including some sort of bailout for the _ options are out there including some sort of bailout for the industry - options are out there including some sort of bailout for the industry to - sort of bailout for the industry to smooth — sort of bailout for the industry to smooth this— sort of bailout for the industry to smooth this spite _ sort of bailout for the industry to smooth this spite over _ sort of bailout for the industry to smooth this spite over time. - sort of bailout for the industry to smooth this spite over time. i. sort of bailout for the industry to i smooth this spite over time. i think this is— smooth this spite over time. i think this is in_ smooth this spite over time. i think this is in many— smooth this spite over time. i think this is in many ways _ smooth this spite over time. i think this is in many ways a _ smooth this spite over time. i think this is in many ways a political- this is in many ways a political emergency— this is in many ways a political emergency and _ this is in many ways a political emergency and an _ this is in many ways a political. emergency and an international this is in many ways a political- emergency and an international one because _ emergency and an international one because it's — emergency and an international one because it's not _ emergency and an international one because it's not unconnected - emergency and an international one because it's not unconnected to - because it's not unconnected to what's — because it's not unconnected to what's going _ because it's not unconnected to what's going on— because it's not unconnected to what's going on in— because it's not unconnected to what's going on in ukraine - because it's not unconnected to what's going on in ukraine are i what's going on in ukraine are certainly— what's going on in ukraine are certainly that— what's going on in ukraine are certainly that things _ what's going on in ukraine are certainly that things aren't - what's going on in ukraine are - certainly that things aren't talking about— certainly that things aren't talking about is— certainly that things aren't talking about is not— certainly that things aren't talking about is not unconnected - certainly that things aren't talking about is not unconnected to - certainly that things aren't talking about is not unconnected to the l about is not unconnected to the relationship _ about is not unconnected to the relationship with— about is not unconnected to the relationship with russia - about is not unconnected to the relationship with russia at - about is not unconnected to the relationship with russia at this. relationship with russia at this time — relationship with russia at this time perhaps— relationship with russia at this time. perhaps we _ relationship with russia at this time. perhaps we can - relationship with russia at this time. perhaps we can discuss. relationship with russia at this - time. perhaps we can discuss that. this is— time. perhaps we can discuss that. this is a _ time. perhaps we can discuss that. this is a serious _ time. perhaps we can discuss that. this is a serious moment. - time. perhaps we can discuss that. this is a serious moment.— this is a serious moment. that's a tood this is a serious moment. that's a good idea. — this is a serious moment. that's a good idea. we _ this is a serious moment. that's a good idea, we will— this is a serious moment. that's a good idea, we will discuss - this is a serious moment. that's a good idea, we will discuss that - this is a serious moment. that's a good idea, we will discuss that in l this is a serious moment. that's a | good idea, we will discuss that in a minute. mark, you are an economist, what leaders exist did allow government to in some ways mitigate the effects of inflation? is there any sign that they work these days? because a lot of people say interest rates are so low that you can incrementally raise them, but has very little effect in dampening inflation. ,., ., ,

very little effect in dampening inflation. ., inflation. government has a limited room of manoeuvre _ inflation. government has a limited room of manoeuvre because - inflation. government has a limited room of manoeuvre because they i inflation. government has a limited i room of manoeuvre because they can get a bit of money, they can put taxes on winners of covid like pharmaceutical companies like a windfall tax, utilities or food companies, supermarkets, but that won't help, it might help short—term, but really france giving £100, you should maybe get £500 or £1000, who knows? i think the only solution is the central bank, because a central bank is really responsible also of the inflationary mess we are in because they undervalue inflation. they continue to print money because they want to support the relaunch of plans and

they came too late by increasing interests. interest rates are the only thing that will work if you increase them drastically, which is very difficult politically, so what you need is a real interest rate increase, not 1% to 25%, but something like one or 2%, short—term held by the government is the only way we might get out... problems of supply of energy and food stamp we only have to look too tricky to see the damage that can be done when political motives control central—bank decisions. in this country, we at least have a central bank that is we are told independent comment was made independent and 25 years or so ago by that then incoming labour government when gordon brown was chancellor. presumably, there is an opportunity here for the government and his colleagues on the committee to say

let's hit the inflation and hit it hard and do whatever the focus in number 10 downing street or the treasury thanks.— number 10 downing street or the treasury thanks. there is. you have covid recovery- _ treasury thanks. there is. you have covid recovery. if— treasury thanks. there is. you have covid recovery. if you _ treasury thanks. there is. you have covid recovery. if you raise - covid recovery. if you raise interest— covid recovery. if you raise interest rates, which is one way to hit inflation — interest rates, which is one way to hit inflation. you make it much harder— hit inflation. you make it much harder for an already weakened economy— harder for an already weakened economy to recover the coming of, any government, and indeed the apposition wouldn't be too happy if the recession that we are likely to see his _ the recession that we are likely to see his deep bends by that. there is a reluctance — see his deep bends by that. there is a reluctance on the part of central banks— a reluctance on the part of central banks in— a reluctance on the part of central banks in general to do that, but i 'ust banks in general to do that, but i just wanted to pick up on something that simon— just wanted to pick up on something that simon said, and households in britain _ that simon said, and households in britain are — that simon said, and households in britain are going to hurt, and they are going — britain are going to hurt, and they are going to hurt, they are going to hurt in— are going to hurt, they are going to hurt in some — are going to hurt, they are going to hurt in some ways worse than other households— hurt in some ways worse than other households because of our particular dependence on gas. more british homes _ dependence on gas. more british homes are — dependence on gas. more british homes are heated by gas than in the rest of— homes are heated by gas than in the rest of europe and we use gas to

generate — rest of europe and we use gas to generate electricity, so a tripling of the _ generate electricity, so a tripling of the price of gas is going to hit british— of the price of gas is going to hit british households very hard. particularly hard because if you remember in 2013, there was a memorable son headline that said cut the green _ memorable son headline that said cut the green clap, and there is a relationship between net zero and what's _ relationship between net zero and what's happening now. it's a —1. by cutting _ what's happening now. it's a —1. by cutting that — what's happening now. it's a —1. by cutting that which cameron and osborne — cutting that which cameron and osborne dead, they cut energy efficiency members, they cut the investment which would have helped households to transition to other forms— households to transition to other forms of— households to transition to other forms of energy, and they cut all the energy— forms of energy, and they cut all the energy saving measures, and as a result, british households are paying — result, british households are paying 2.5 billion more on their energy— paying 2.5 billion more on their energy bills than they would have done _ energy bills than they would have done had — energy bills than they would have done had those programmes remained in place _ done had those programmes remained in place so— done had those programmes remained in place. so these short—term measures— in place. so these short—term measures have long—term effects, we are really— measures have long—term effects, we are really exposed to fluctuations in the _ are really exposed to fluctuations in the wholesale price of energy in

a way— in the wholesale price of energy in a way that— in the wholesale price of energy in a way that many countries are simply less exposed. a way that many countries are simply less “posed-— less exposed. isabel makes a good oint. we less exposed. isabel makes a good point- we don't _ less exposed. isabel makes a good point. we don't have _ less exposed. isabel makes a good point. we don't have much - less exposed. isabel makes a good point. we don't have much in - less exposed. isabel makes a good point. we don't have much in the l less exposed. isabel makes a good i point. we don't have much in the way of gas storage, so we have to pay a premium price as a result because we are buying to use it. we are picking up are buying to use it. we are picking up on this question of inflation. i was talking to the food writerjack munroe on thursday on this channel, and she was saying the inflation measure doesn't reveal the full story, because it's an average person's guides. it hides the fact that for some households on lower incomes, they are being affected much more steeply, so a basket that has champagne and it doesn't deal with a family that doesn't drink champagne, but has to buy basic foods and basic foodstuffs like pasta have gone up massively in the last six months. i’m pasta have gone up massively in the last six months.— last six months. i'm not enough of an economics _ last six months. i'm not enough of an economics expert _ last six months. i'm not enough of an economics expert to _ last six months. i'm not enough of an economics expert to be - last six months. i'm not enough of an economics expert to be able . last six months. i'm not enough of an economics expert to be able to | an economics expert to be able to take that —

an economics expert to be able to take that basket and _ an economics expert to be able to take that basket and analyse - an economics expert to be able to take that basket and analyse it. an economics expert to be able to. take that basket and analyse it that by that, _ take that basket and analyse it that by that, and — take that basket and analyse it that bytbat, and i— take that basket and analyse it that by that, and i noticed _ take that basket and analyse it that by that, and i noticed that- take that basket and analyse it that by that, and i noticed that chris - by that, and i noticed that chris giles _ by that, and i noticed that chris giles and — by that, and i noticed that chris giles and the _ by that, and i noticed that chris giles and the financial- by that, and i noticed that chris giles and the financial times i by that, and i noticed that chris i giles and the financial times had by that, and i noticed that chris . giles and the financial times had a bit of a _ giles and the financial times had a bit of a two — giles and the financial times had a bit of a two and _ giles and the financial times had a bit of a two and fro _ giles and the financial times had a bit of a two and fro about - giles and the financial times had a bit of a two and fro about this, - giles and the financial times had a bit of a two and fro about this, but| bit of a two and fro about this, but there _ bit of a two and fro about this, but there is_ bit of a two and fro about this, but there is no— bit of a two and fro about this, but there is no doubt— bit of a two and fro about this, but there is no doubt that _ bit of a two and fro about this, but there is no doubt that for- there is no doubt that for example, i if you consider heating your home is a necessity, — if you consider heating your home is a necessity, then... _ if you consider heating your home is a necessity, then. . ._ a necessity, then... most people would. a necessity, then... most people would- this _ a necessity, then... most people would. this is _ a necessity, then... most people would. this is why _ a necessity, then... most people would. this is why don't - a necessity, then... most people - would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to — would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me _ would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me by _ would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me by more _ would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me by more of- would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me by more of it. - would. this is why don't understand, if is cheap to me by more of it. do i if is cheap to me by more of it. do you. _ if is cheap to me by more of it. do you. really? — if is cheap to me by more of it. do you. really? i_ if is cheap to me by more of it. do you, really? ithank_ if is cheap to me by more of it. do you, really? i thank you _ if is cheap to me by more of it. do you, really? i thank you heat - if is cheap to me by more of it. do you, really? i thank you heat your| you, really? i thank you heat your house _ you, really? i thank you heat your house that — you, really? i thank you heat your house that we _ you, really? i thank you heat your house that we usually _ you, really? i thank you heat your house that we usually do, - you, really? i thank you heat your house that we usually do, and - you, really? i thank you heat your| house that we usually do, and that clearly things— house that we usually do, and that clearly things like _ house that we usually do, and that clearly things like that _ house that we usually do, and that clearly things like that are - house that we usually do, and that clearly things like that are much i clearly things like that are much bigger— clearly things like that are much bigger component— clearly things like that are much bigger component of— clearly things like that are much bigger component of people's . bigger component of people's disposable _ bigger component of people's disposable income _ bigger component of people's disposable income than - bigger component of people'sl disposable income than people bigger component of people's - disposable income than people whose basket— disposable income than people whose basket is— disposable income than people whose basket is champagne, _ disposable income than people whose basket is champagne, as— disposable income than people whose basket is champagne, as you - disposable income than people whose basket is champagne, as you say, - basket is champagne, as you say, international— basket is champagne, as you say, international travel, _ basket is champagne, as you say, international travel, what - basket is champagne, as you say, international travel, what have i basket is champagne, as you say, l international travel, what have you. so for _ international travel, what have you. so for those — international travel, what have you. so for those people _ international travel, what have you. so for those people on _ international travel, what have you. so for those people on limited - so for those people on limited incomes. _ so for those people on limited incomes. for— so for those people on limited incomes, for example, - so for those people on limited - incomes, for example, pensioners, benefits, _ incomes, for example, pensioners, benefits, this — incomes, for example, pensioners, benefits, this is _ incomes, for example, pensioners, benefits, this is an _ incomes, for example, pensioners, benefits, this is an absolutely- benefits, this is an absolutely excruciating _ benefits, this is an absolutely excruciating horror— benefits, this is an absolutely excruciating horror show, - benefits, this is an absolutely excruciating horror show, and benefits, this is an absolutely- excruciating horror show, and it's going _ excruciating horror show, and it's going to — excruciating horror show, and it's going to get _ excruciating horror show, and it's going to get really— excruciating horror show, and it's going to get really bad. _ excruciating horror show, and it's going to get really bad. we - excruciating horror show, and it's going to get really bad. we will. going to get really bad. we will find out — going to get really bad. we will find out to— going to get really bad. we will find out to the _ going to get really bad. we will find out to the government's i find out to the government's credits. _ find out to the government's credits. they— find out to the government's credits, they have _ find out to the government's credits, they have had - find out to the government's credits, they have had this. find out to the government's - credits, they have had this energy price _ credits, they have had this energy price gab— credits, they have had this energy price gap which _ credits, they have had this energy price gap which is— credits, they have had this energy price gap which is protected - credits, they have had this energy price gap which is protected a - credits, they have had this energy price gap which is protected a lotl price gap which is protected a lot of people. — price gap which is protected a lot of people, retailers, _ price gap which is protected a lot of people, retailers, it's - price gap which is protected a lotl of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all— of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all the — of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all the suppliers, _ of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all the suppliers, 25 _ of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all the suppliers, 25 of - of people, retailers, it's bankrupt at all the suppliers, 25 of them, i at all the suppliers, 25 of them, but it— at all the suppliers, 25 of them, but it has— at all the suppliers, 25 of them, but it has protected _ at all the suppliers, 25 of them, but it has protected some - at all the suppliers, 25 of them,

but it has protected some of- at all the suppliers, 25 of them, i but it has protected some of them. that protection— but it has protected some of them. that protection will— but it has protected some of them. that protection will lapse _ but it has protected some of them. that protection will lapse when - but it has protected some of them. that protection will lapse when the i that protection will lapse when the new energy — that protection will lapse when the new energy price _ that protection will lapse when the new energy price gap _ that protection will lapse when the new energy price gap is— that protection will lapse when the new energy price gap is set, - that protection will lapse when the new energy price gap is set, whenl that protection will lapse when the i new energy price gap is set, when it comes— new energy price gap is set, when it comes into — new energy price gap is set, when it comes into effect _ new energy price gap is set, when it comes into effect on _ new energy price gap is set, when it comes into effect on april— new energy price gap is set, when it comes into effect on april the - new energy price gap is set, when it comes into effect on april the 1st . comes into effect on april the 1st and there — comes into effect on april the 1st and there is— comes into effect on april the 1st and there is intense _ comes into effect on april the 1st and there is intense pressure, i comes into effect on april the 1st i and there is intense pressure, just this afternoon _ and there is intense pressure, just this afternoon from _ and there is intense pressure, just this afternoon from a _ and there is intense pressure, just this afternoon from a bunch - and there is intense pressure, just this afternoon from a bunch of- this afternoon from a bunch of business — this afternoon from a bunch of business group _ this afternoon from a bunch of business group saying - this afternoon from a bunch of business group saying you - this afternoon from a bunch of. business group saying you need this afternoon from a bunch of- business group saying you need to act urgentiy~ — business group saying you need to act urgentiy~ i_ business group saying you need to act urgently. ithink— business group saying you need to act urgently. i think it's _ business group saying you need to act urgently. i think it's number. act urgently. i think it's number one story— act urgently. i think it's number one story in _ act urgently. i think it's number one story in the _ act urgently. i think it's number one story in the number- act urgently. i think it's number one story in the number one - one story in the number one political— one story in the number one political and _ one story in the number one political and economic- political and economic consideration, - political and economic consideration, not. political and economic| consideration, notjust political and economic. consideration, notjust in political and economic- consideration, notjust in the political and economic— consideration, notjust in the uk, but probably— consideration, notjust in the uk, but probably in _ consideration, notjust in the uk, but probably in western - consideration, notjust in the uk, but probably in western europe. i consideration, notjust in the uk, i but probably in western europe. we will but probably in western europe. c will be but probably in western europe. will be talking more about it in the coming weeks and months. talking about the cost of living. let's talk about the cost of living. let's talk about something that's about the cost that may have to be bared to prevent a lot of people from dying. that's measures to discourage or to punish russia if it invades ukraine or crosses into any part of ukraine's territory. there is a lot of talk of forcing them out of the banking system. can you explain what that pan is it such a plan exists and what might be the effect? i can and what might be the effect? i can exlain and what might be the effect? i can expiain what _ and what might be the effect? i can explain what the _ and what might be the effect? i can explain what the plan _ and what might be the effect? i can explain what the plan is. _ and what might be the effect? i can explain what the plan is. i'm doubtfui— explain what the plan is. i'm doubtful that— explain what the plan is. i'm doubtful that it _ explain what the plan is. i'm doubtful that it will- explain what the plan is. i'm doubtful that it will actuallyl doubtful that it will actually happen, _ doubtful that it will actually happen. but _ doubtful that it will actually happen, but this _ doubtful that it will actually happen, but this would - doubtful that it will actually happen, but this would be i doubtful that it will actually - happen, but this would be something called _ happen, but this would be something called the _ happen, but this would be something called the swift _ happen, but this would be something called the swift system, _ happen, but this would be something called the swift system, which - called the swift system, which connects — called the swift system, which connects about _

called the swift system, which connects about 11,000 - called the swift system, which connects about 11,000 banks i called the swift system, which - connects about 11,000 banks around the world, _ connects about 11,000 banks around the world, and — connects about 11,000 banks around the world, and it _ connects about 11,000 banks around the world, and it facilitates - the world, and it facilitates cross—border— the world, and it facilitates cross—border payments. i the world, and it facilitates i cross—border payments. you the world, and it facilitates - cross—border payments. you could take russia — cross—border payments. you could take russia out _ cross—border payments. you could take russia out of _ cross—border payments. you could take russia out of that _ cross—border payments. you could take russia out of that system, i cross—border payments. you couldl take russia out of that system, the us has— take russia out of that system, the us has an _ take russia out of that system, the us has an enormous _ take russia out of that system, the us has an enormous amount - take russia out of that system, the us has an enormous amount of- take russia out of that system, the - us has an enormous amount of control over that _ us has an enormous amount of control overthat~ it's— us has an enormous amount of control over that. it's based _ us has an enormous amount of control over that. it's based in— us has an enormous amount of control over that. it's based in belgium, - over that. it's based in belgium, but the — over that. it's based in belgium, but the us— over that. it's based in belgium, but the us can _ over that. it's based in belgium, but the us can force _ over that. it's based in belgium, but the us can force the - over that. it's based in belgium, but the us can force the issue. l over that. it's based in belgium, | but the us can force the issue. it did with — but the us can force the issue. it did with iran— but the us can force the issue. it did with iran which _ but the us can force the issue. it did with iran which set _ but the us can force the issue. it did with iran which set a - but the us can force the issue. it i did with iran which set a precedent. iran did with iran which set a precedent. iran is— did with iran which set a precedent. iran is one — did with iran which set a precedent. iran is one thing, _ did with iran which set a precedent. iran is one thing, taking _ did with iran which set a precedent. iran is one thing, taking russia - did with iran which set a precedent. iran is one thing, taking russia out| iran is one thing, taking russia out of the _ iran is one thing, taking russia out of the banking _ iran is one thing, taking russia out of the banking system _ iran is one thing, taking russia out of the banking system is— iran is one thing, taking russia out of the banking system is quite - of the banking system is quite another — of the banking system is quite another as— of the banking system is quite another. as we _ of the banking system is quite another. as we have - of the banking system is quite another. as we have just - of the banking system is quitej another. as we have just been discussing _ another. as we have just been discussing commit— another. as we have just been discussing commit supplies i another. as we have just been. discussing commit supplies one another. as we have just been- discussing commit supplies one third of all of— discussing commit supplies one third of all of yours — discussing commit supplies one third of all of your's natural _ discussing commit supplies one third of all of your's natural gas. _ discussing commit supplies one third of all of your's natural gas. it's - of all of your's natural gas. it's one _ of all of your's natural gas. it's one of— of all of your's natural gas. it's one of the _ of all of your's natural gas. it's one of the eu's _ of all of your's natural gas. it's one of the eu's biggest - of all of your's natural gas. it'sj one of the eu's biggest trading partners — one of the eu's biggest trading partners. anything _ one of the eu's biggest trading partners. anything i— one of the eu's biggest trading partners. anything i did - one of the eu's biggest trading partners. anything i did that i one of the eu's biggest trading - partners. anything i did that would have enormous— partners. anything i did that would have enormous amount _ partners. anything i did that would have enormous amount of - partners. anything i did that would. have enormous amount of collateral damage. _ have enormous amount of collateral damage. and — have enormous amount of collateral damage. and this _ have enormous amount of collateral damage, and this is _ have enormous amount of collateral damage, and this is the _ have enormous amount of collateral damage, and this is the main - damage, and this is the main objection— damage, and this is the main objection in— damage, and this is the main objection in my— damage, and this is the main objection in my view, - damage, and this is the main objection in my view, which l damage, and this is the main| objection in my view, which is damage, and this is the main - objection in my view, which is that they've _ objection in my view, which is that they've got — objection in my view, which is that they've got an _ objection in my view, which is that they've got an alternative - objection in my view, which is that they've got an alternative system i they've got an alternative system which _ they've got an alternative system which they— they've got an alternative system which they have _ they've got an alternative system which they have developed, - they've got an alternative system which they have developed, so i they've got an alternative system i which they have developed, so has china, _ which they have developed, so has china, and — which they have developed, so has china, and i— which they have developed, so has china, and i think— which they have developed, so has china, and i think that— which they have developed, so has china, and i think that at _ which they have developed, so has china, and i think that at a - which they have developed, so has i china, and i think that at a moments when _ china, and i think that at a moments when the _ china, and i think that at a moments when the presumed _ china, and i think that at a moments when the presumed supremacy- china, and i think that at a moments when the presumed supremacy of. china, and i think that at a momentsl when the presumed supremacy of the dottar— when the presumed supremacy of the dollar banking — when the presumed supremacy of the dollar banking system _ when the presumed supremacy of the dollar banking system looks - when the presumed supremacy of the dollar banking system looks like - when the presumed supremacy of the dollar banking system looks like it - dollar banking system looks like it could _ dollar banking system looks like it could be _ dollar banking system looks like it could be fracturing, _ dollar banking system looks like it could be fracturing, if _ dollar banking system looks like it could be fracturing, if you - dollar banking system looks like it could be fracturing, if you where l dollar banking system looks like itl could be fracturing, if you where to do this— could be fracturing, if you where to do this and — could be fracturing, if you where to do this and create _ could be fracturing, if you where to do this and create a _ could be fracturing, if you where to do this and create a further- do this and create a further fracture. _ do this and create a further fracture, you _ do this and create a further fracture, you might- do this and create a further fracture, you might well. do this and create a further fracture, you might well be do this and create a further- fracture, you might well be playing into china's — fracture, you might well be playing into china's hands, _ fracture, you might well be playing into china's hands, and _ fracture, you might well be playing into china's hands, and i— fracture, you might well be playing into china's hands, and i don't - into china's hands, and i don't think— into china's hands, and i don't think the — into china's hands, and i don't think the us _ into china's hands, and i don't think the us would _ into china's hands, and i don't think the us would really - into china's hands, and i don'tj think the us would really want into china's hands, and i don't i think the us would really want to into china's hands, and i don't - think the us would really want to do that because — think the us would really want to do that because that _ think the us would really want to do that because that this _ think the us would really want to do that because that this whole - that because that this whole dollar -based _ that because that this whole dollar —based international— that because that this whole dollar —based international rule—based i —based international rule—based order— —based international rule—based order is— —based international rule—based order is up — —based international rule—based order is up for— —based international rule—based order is up for grabs. _ —based international rule—based order is up for grabs. as- —based international rule—based order is up for grabs. as will. —based international rule—based order is up for grabs. as will be| —based international rule—based . order is up for grabs. as will be an acceleration— order is up for grabs. as will be an acceleration down— order is up for grabs. as will be an acceleration down a _ order is up for grabs. as will be an

acceleration down a path. - order is up for grabs. as will be an acceleration down a path.— acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism _ acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism of _ acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism of the _ acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism of the idea - acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism of the idea of- acceleration down a path. that's a telling criticism of the idea of the | telling criticism of the idea of the plan, and it underlines the problem the west faces. it was unintentionally exposed byjoe biden's speech or a news conference on wednesday where he more or less admitted that short of a full—scale invasion the european allies would seek to oppose and would act against him anything less, which let's face it is more likely, there would be disagreement. there would not be a united front. i thought that cnn caught it very well when it described it as an uncomfortable truth at a dangerous moment. bill described it as an uncomfortable truth at a dangerous moment. all the cards are in — truth at a dangerous moment. all the cards are in his _ truth at a dangerous moment. all the cards are in his hands. _ truth at a dangerous moment. all the cards are in his hands. present - cards are in his hands. present background said to the european parliament this week because of a french presidency to russia, let's negotiate directly in russia. of course, they refused because of security and military europe is a dwarf. the only two armies that are

of any consequence are the british. they are not in the eu any more, and they are helping ukraine anyway. the french you are not going to die for ukraine for three months of the presidential election, all of this, you have also forgot to say that very strong sympathetic to russia lobbying in the eu with germany and bringing arms to ukraine and joe biden, and you have greece and cyprus and others. so it does include all of that, i think mr putin is waiting at the moment. is putin is waiting at the moment. is about, only one of the meetings that took place in that flow of diplomacy a week ago actually directly involved ukraine itself. the meeting of the osce which some might say was the least important in terms of the

kind of potential for military conflict and. to think the west is in danger of making a mistake is made in the past of talking about countries rather than with countries? lip countries rather than with countries?— countries? up to a point. although, it rather depends _ countries? up to a point. although, it rather depends on _ countries? up to a point. although, it rather depends on what _ countries? up to a point. although, it rather depends on what russia i countries? up to a point. although, it rather depends on what russia is| it rather depends on what russia is looking _ it rather depends on what russia is looking for— it rather depends on what russia is looking for here and what the most promising — looking for here and what the most promising diplomatic form has. there are multiple and ukraine has been involved _ are multiple and ukraine has been involved with the european union and long—standing efforts to get some kind of— long—standing efforts to get some kind of settlement over damn bass and defuse tensions. they have found ukraine _ and defuse tensions. they have found ukraine rather unhelpful in some respects — ukraine rather unhelpful in some respects i— ukraine rather unhelpful in some respects. i agree that it is very little _ respects. i agree that it is very little likelihood that anyone is to have _ little likelihood that anyone is to have put— little likelihood that anyone is to have put soldiers into ukraine. the united _ have put soldiers into ukraine. the united states isn't going to want people _ united states isn't going to want people to die in ukraine either. so

actually— people to die in ukraine either. so actually put doesn't need to invade ukraine _ actually put doesn't need to invade ukraine in— actually put doesn't need to invade ukraine in orderto actually put doesn't need to invade ukraine in order to get what he wants. — ukraine in order to get what he wants. but— ukraine in order to get what he wants, but it's not always clear what _ wants, but it's not always clear what russia does want. there is a fairiy— what russia does want. there is a fairly well—established sense certainly amongst american strategists that are fresh and is making — strategists that are fresh and is making a — strategists that are fresh and is making a big noise in one corner,

you should look in no missiles no bases _ you should look in no missiles no bases in — you should look in no missiles no bases in the _ you should look in no missiles no bases in the ukraine that quote, "in god name pulse might go." that's datelined london, goodbye.

hello, there. last night was the coldest night of the winter so far in wales. we saw a lot of cloud coming into england and wales, into that cold air. slow rise in temperature, for example, here in reading — it was only about five celsius in the afternoon. some sunshine, though, in the northeast of scotlan — and here, temperatures were in double figures. all of us, though, dry, high pressure still in charge, it's been a dominant feature of the weather for the last ten days or so. there is a weak weather front approaching the far north west, and eventually that will bring a little bit of rain mainly to the highlands later on in the night. ahead of it, a lot of cloud coming in, but some breaks are likely across some southern and eastern parts of england, and for a while, in eastern scotland. so these areas will be quite chilly, there's a risk of some frost,

but it's nowhere near as cold in southern parts of the uk as it was last night. we start the weekend with a lot of cloud, but probably dry for the most part — and that's the way it'll stay for the next five days, this is the rainfall accumulation, most places completely dry, rain is more likely up towards the northwest, into the highlands. and the weekend is not going to be quite as cold, still dry for most places. a lot more cloud around during this weekend, so that will limit the frost, and also the fog, as well. and we start with a lot of cloud, really, on saturday. some sunshine more, especially across some eastern areas of the uk once again. that weak weather front straddling scotland may bring a little light rain or drizzle in the west. otherwise, it's a dry day. a lot of cloud, temperatures not bad, though, for the time of year, 8—9 across england and wales, and again, double figures more widely across scotland and also northern ireland. and that's because the high is centred more to the south of the uk, and around the top of it, we've got some stronger winds, milderaircoming in from the atlantic — the really cold air, that's a long way away, actually, across some eastern parts of europe. so for the second half of the weekend, it's more of the same.

could be a chilly start in places, 1—2 mist and fog patches, otherwise a lot of cloud, some sunshine now and again. probably more across eastern scotland, because we've got a stronger wind in scotland and northern ireland. but again, a lot of dry weather, and those temperatures of around 6—8 celsius pretty widely. heading into the early part of next week, and things don't change very much at all, because high pressure is still going to be in charge. away from the northwest and it will be dry, a lot of cloud around, some sunshine now and again, and decent temperatures.

this is bbc news. i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 8pm — russia and america hold urgent talks amid fears that russia could be about to invade ukraine. we've been clear. if any russian military forces move across ukraine's border, that's a renewed invasion. it will be met with swift, severe and a united response. translation: no-one is hiding the fact that weapons _ are being handed overto ukraine, that hundreds of military instructors are flocking to ukraine. aid agencies say dozens of people have been killed and many more have been wounded in two air strikes by the saudi—led coalition in yemen. a campaign to persuade 4 million people in the uk to be vaccinated against covid — we speak to some with reservations about the jab.

a £1 billion pound shortfall in state pension payments to tens