the winds actually ease by the afternoon but still enough of a wind on the north sea to push waters onshore into norfolk and suffolk, coastal swelling as we will have high tides here as well. a cooler feel to the north of the uk once again to start this week. for the rest of the week, it is still looking pretty unsettled. we will see pressure systems rolling through to the north of the uk, high pressure neverfar to the south. thejet stream up here to the north just keeping us feeding this system in. what we will notice there is the fronts dive down close to the areas of high pressure. we lose much of the rain on them so for england and wales actually very, very little in the way of rain to come through the next seven days. these are our accumulations. you can see for western scotland, particularly the north—west, perhaps we will get up to 60,

70 millimetres, a couple of inches of rain before we are through where the fronts clip in here. certainly though tuesday, not much to report in the way of wet weather for the uk. a north—westerly breeze. actually much milder to the south of the uk once again, temperatures 12 or 13 degrees. temperatures up as well to 9 degrees in aberdeen, some showers to the north—west of scotland. wednesday, not too much to report either. a front tries to trickle its way into the north—west of the uk. more cloud for northern ireland, some rain for northernmost scotland. for many though, yes, a breezy day but fine with some bright or sunny spells and temperatures in double figures. thursday there is a chance of us seeing some rain sinking its way south across the uk, perhaps some rain getting into wales. across southern england, it will be nothing more than sunlight and patchy drizzle. you can see for england and wales, it is looking pretty fine really, well on into next weekend, but for the north—west of scotland, we do stay on a rather unsettled footing.

hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are the political commentator, jo phillips and nigel nelson, political editor of the people and sunday mirror. tomorrow's front pages. the sunday times leads on the agreement between the prime minister and the chancellor that the planned rise on national insurance will go—ahead after calls to scrap the increase over cost—of—living fears. the telegraph features a picture of the prime minister

as the uk ramps up it's deployment to ukraine — but leads on the government's response to the afghanistan crisis in the summer. the paper says borisjohnson's aide watched cricket as kabul fell to the taliban. the express leads on the uk's response to the crisis in ukraine — with britain sending more troops, jets and warships. and the guardian says the government are accused of what it calls a levelling—up stunt to save the prime minister's job. we'll crack on straightaway and start off with, and typically i have just lost my list, are, there we go, the times. rishi sunak and boris johnson together with this editorial and, well, the editorialising in the sunday times but it looks like they

have a united front, something that we haven't seen for a while, jo? m0. we haven't seen for a while, jo? no, not at all. — we haven't seen for a while, jo? no, not at all. and _ we haven't seen for a while, jo? no, not at all, and it _ we haven't seen for a while, jo? no, not at all, and it is _ we haven't seen for a while, jo? iirr, not at all, and it is interesting because it is widely rumoured that rishi sunak is not hugely impressed by the goings—on with partygate, and evenin by the goings—on with partygate, and even in one of the papers we may come to later, it is reported that he is getting his leadership campaign up and ready but this is an article, a piece from both the prime minister and the chancellor, pretty much saying, you know, you can moan if you want to, but we are going ahead with this 1.25 increase in national insurance, or £12 billion, which will hit the pay packets and employers as well from april. so, a lot of conservative mps have voiced concern because the cost of living, as we all know it, zooming, and next week, the energy price cap is due to come to an end, and that will put a

huge increase on energy bills. there are real concerns about the cost of living but this is the prime minister and the chancellor sticking to their downs and, as you say, trying to send out a message of unity. g trying to send out a message of uni . �* , ., , , unity. a message of unity, but, niel, unity. a message of unity, but, nigel. we _ unity. a message of unity, but, nigel, we have _ unity. a message of unity, but, nigel, we have tim _ unity. a message of unity, but, nigel, we have tim shipman i unity. a message of unity, but, j nigel, we have tim shipman on unity. a message of unity, but, - nigel, we have tim shipman on the front page of the sunday times, and that little cartoon, his thoughts, saving johnson's bacon. what are your thoughts?— saving johnson's bacon. what are your thoughts? saving johnson's bacon. what are our thou~hts? ~ u, , ., ., your thoughts? when it comes down to the national insurance _ your thoughts? when it comes down to the national insurance rise, _ your thoughts? when it comes down to the national insurance rise, it - the national insurance rise, it won't — the national insurance rise, it won't please a lot of tory mps. the national insurance rise, it won't please a lot of tory mp5. the way the _ won't please a lot of tory mp5. the way the sunday times is interpreting this is_ way the sunday times is interpreting this is that _ way the sunday times is interpreting this is that borisjohnson way the sunday times is interpreting this is that boris johnson feels that he — this is that boris johnson feels that he is— this is that boris johnson feels that he is now safe or at least safer— that he is now safe or at least safer which is why he feels he can io safer which is why he feels he can go ahead — safer which is why he feels he can go ahead with his tax increase. i am not sure _ go ahead with his tax increase. i am not sure he's— go ahead with his tax increase. i am not sure he's right. the position hash't _ not sure he's right. the position hasn't changed with mp5 for the last two weeks — hasn't changed with mp5 for the last two weeks. they are waiting for sue

gray's _ two weeks. they are waiting for sue gray's report, they will then decide whether— gray's report, they will then decide whether to — gray's report, they will then decide whether to push for a no—confidence vote _ whether to push for a no—confidence vote at— whether to push for a no—confidence vote at the — whether to push for a no—confidence vote. at the moment, what i understand from the rebel camp, or the rebei— understand from the rebel camp, or the rebel number crunches who have been going _ the rebel number crunches who have been going around trying to gauge what support there is, you will need 180 mps— what support there is, you will need 180 mps to — what support there is, you will need 180 mp5 to get rid of borisjohnson. they reckon they are about ten short — they reckon they are about ten short but _ they reckon they are about ten short. but ten is not very many. all you need _ short. but ten is not very many. all you need is— short. but ten is not very many. all you need is sue gray's report to be devastating, and the prime minister is in serious — devastating, and the prime minister is in serious trouble. but devastating, and the prime minister is in serious trouble.— is in serious trouble. but while we await sue gray's _ is in serious trouble. but while we await sue gray's report, _ is in serious trouble. but while we await sue gray's report, the - is in serious trouble. but while we i await sue gray's report, the sunday times has also got a slightly different story, still obviously focusing on the prime minister, but jo, this frat house culture, talk us what this is about. what is tim shipman alleging too? it is quite

extraordinary — shipman alleging too? it is quite extraordinary but _ shipman alleging too? it is quite extraordinary but apparently, - shipman alleging too? it is quite extraordinary but apparently, it. extraordinary but apparently, it just conjures up this image of the student flat with carrie, the promise of�*s wife and her friends, who had apparently got a secret pin code to get in and out of the flat, the flat above the shop, if you like, sort of lounging around, having a lovely sociable time, while boxes of very secret, top secret material, for the prime minister's eyes only, were left littered around the flat, further running the article talks about boxes being left outside the door, you know, and they were still there the next morning. and they were there many hours later. what this conjures up, it is not so much the detail but it is this sort of shambolic, casual, you know, we are just having a good time, we don't take anything very seriously. some of this has come from dominic cummings, who as we know is out to get borisjohnson, come hell or high water, but it was

he, apparently, who insisted, he got very concerned about this frat house atmosphere in the upstairs flat, and in a couple's private rooms at chequers. and, as a result, martin reynolds, the principal private secretary of the prime minister, insisted that the prime minister approved a secret intelligence request in his number ten office, because, you know, you can't have top secret stuff just lying because, you know, you can't have top secret stuffjust lying around. but, again, as i say, it is this sense of shambles.— but, again, as i say, it is this sense of shambles. and the way it is described, dominic _ sense of shambles. and the way it is described, dominic cummings - sense of shambles. and the way it is described, dominic cummings of- described, dominic cummings of course named in this article by tim, nigel, but the headlinesjust keep coming, when it comes to the prime minister, and asjo was saying, the culture behind the leadership. yes. culture behind the leadership. yes, and i think culture behind the leadership. yes, and i thinkjo _ culture behind the leadership. yes, and i thinkjo is _ culture behind the leadership. yes, and i thinkjo is absolutely right, it is plain — and i thinkjo is absolutely right, it is plain shambolic when you hear stories— it is plain shambolic when you hear stories like — it is plain shambolic when you hear stories like this. i'm not sure that

i stories like this. i'm not sure that iwoutd _ stories like this. i'm not sure that i would blame carrie johnson or her friends _ i would blame carrie johnson or her friends for— i would blame carrie johnson or her friends for being there. the question— friends for being there. the question is why is the prime minister— question is why is the prime minister of this country not more carefut— minister of this country not more careful with top—secret documents? just leaving his red box lying there. — just leaving his red box lying there, open, is an absolute disgrace _ there, open, is an absolute disgrace. but this seems to be the way that— disgrace. but this seems to be the way that he goes about both his personal— way that he goes about both his personal life and his professional one _ personal life and his professional one he — personal life and his professional one. he doesn't really seem to care terribly— one. he doesn't really seem to care terribly much about anything. but, obviously. — terribly much about anything. but, obviously, in a situation like this, i obviously, in a situation like this, i am _ obviously, in a situation like this, i am sure — obviously, in a situation like this, i am sure there is no great security risk, _ i am sure there is no great security risk, welt, — i am sure there is no great security risk, well, you don't know, we don't actually— risk, well, you don't know, we don't actually know— risk, well, you don't know, we don't actually know who is going in and out of— actually know who is going in and out of the — actually know who is going in and out of the place, and if people have -ot out of the place, and if people have got the _ out of the place, and if people have got the bin— out of the place, and if people have got the pin code you get in, which is what _ got the pin code you get in, which is what this— got the pin code you get in, which is what this article suggests, that could _ is what this article suggests, that could be — is what this article suggests, that could be a — is what this article suggests, that could be a real problem. but itjust shows— could be a real problem. but itjust shows the — could be a real problem. but itjust shows the character of the prime minister. — shows the character of the prime minister, and that is the most worrying — minister, and that is the most worrying thing about this story. and we alwa s worrying thing about this story. fific we always hear, if worrying thing about this story. fific we always hear, if we have worrying thing about this story. e"ic we always hear, if we have a worrying thing about this story. el"ic we always hear, if we have a look at the telegraph, rick britain ransacked via power to determine

russian invasion, and we are talking about this and the parties and sue gray and metropolitan police, but at the same time, we have got all of this on an international platform, jo, with a uk ramping up its firepower to deter russian invasion. we believe that borisjohnson will be travelling to eastern europe. we've got an increase in british troops, in theory, bolstering up the numbers there. and people are very worried about what is happening on the ukrainian border. weill. worried about what is happening on the ukrainian border.— the ukrainian border. well, they are, and the ukrainian border. well, they are. and i— the ukrainian border. well, they are. and i am — the ukrainian border. well, they are, and i am sure _ the ukrainian border. well, they are, and i am sure boris - the ukrainian border. well, they| are, and i am sure boris johnson are, and i am sure borisjohnson couldn't wait to get a return ticket to ukraine or anywhere else, if the alternative is being in the commons and having to report on sue gray's report, if it gets to him next week. i was interesting to hear your interview earlier this evening that ukrainian diplomat because there is a sense that, you know, this is terribly useful forjoe biden who

has got problems at home, it is terribly useful for borisjohnson for reasons that we have already discussed. but what that person whose name i had forgotten was saying to you was that the troops have been there for a long time, nothing much has changed, except that, you know, the wider world is taking more interest. but we have got a very disunited europe on how to tackle this problem. we've got america and the uk trying to go in there and play hard and sabre rattle with troops and warships and things like that. but you have also got the ukrainian government themselves saying, actually, hang on a minute, stop talking up this panic because it is crippling our economy and we need to grow, we want to be strong and independent. so, there is an awful lot at stake here and i don't think it is as simple as it looks on paper. think it is as simple as it looks on -a er. , ~' think it is as simple as it looks on -a er. , ~ .. think it is as simple as it looks on --aer. , ~ .. think it is as simple as it looks on “aen , ~' ., ..

think it is as simple as it looks on --aer. , ~ ., ., . . paper. very kind of you to watch earlier hours, _ paper. very kind of you to watch earlier hours, yes, _ paper. very kind of you to watch earlier hours, yes, he _ paper. very kind of you to watch earlier hours, yes, he was - paper. very kind of you to watch | earlier hours, yes, he was saying that in kyiv people are getting on with it and there have been this build—up for some time, and effectively they have been a difficult state says the annexation of crimea. but when it comes to the international perspective, potentially, nigel, minister going to that region, but again the sunday telegraph reflecting on what was happening back over the summer when afghanistan was being taken over by the taliban, and this is a scathing headline. , , �* ., , headline. yes, it is, indeed. boris johnson's chief _ headline. yes, it is, indeed. boris johnson's chief of _ headline. yes, it is, indeed. boris johnson's chief of staff, _ headline. yes, it is, indeed. boris johnson's chief of staff, what - headline. yes, it is, indeed. boris johnson's chief of staff, what the | johnson's chief of staff, what the telegraph as saying that three days before _ telegraph as saying that three days before kabul fell, he was at lord's cricket _ before kabul fell, he was at lord's cricket match. now, why this is significant _ cricket match. now, why this is significant is because he is suspected of being the official that ordered _ suspected of being the official that ordered the then foreign secretary dondnic— ordered the then foreign secretary dominic ralph to come back from a holiday— dominic ralph to come back from a holiday in— dominic ralph to come back from a

holiday in cyprus. again, we are actually— holiday in cyprus. again, we are actually seeing chaos around downing street, _ actually seeing chaos around downing street, the _ actually seeing chaos around downing street, the kind of cavalier attitude, devil may care. the idea that when— attitude, devil may care. the idea that when you have got a major international crisis like this brewing, _ international crisis like this brewing, the last thing you think you would — brewing, the last thing you think you would do is go to a cricket match — you would do is go to a cricket match. anyway, nine days into it, he went— match. anyway, nine days into it, he went to _ match. anyway, nine days into it, he went to another one, semi tobviously didn't— went to another one, semi tobviously didn't bother him too much. it went to another one, semi tobviously didn't bother him too much.— didn't bother him too much. it does have a feeling. _ didn't bother him too much. it does have a feeling, don't _ didn't bother him too much. it does have a feeling, don't you _ didn't bother him too much. it does have a feeling, don't you think, - have a feeling, don't you think, nigel, that this might be the beginning of some damning stuff being put up because dan rosen feels is very much in the firing line and there are calls for his head on a plate. but he was appointed by boris johnson, but this does have that sort of dodgy fingerprints of someone putting out to rubbish him in order to save the prime minister. it could be a bit of that, sadly, i think— it could be a bit of that, sadly, i think whether boris johnson survives or not. _ think whether boris johnson survives or not, there is bound to be quite a bil or not, there is bound to be quite a big clear— or not, there is bound to be quite a big clear out — or not, there is bound to be quite a big clear out in number ten. you talk about _ big clear out in number ten. you talk about saving _ big clear out in number ten. you. talk about saving the prime

minister, jo, seamlessly leading us onto the observer, the tories are accused of living up stand to save boris johnson's accused of living up stand to save borisjohnson's job. —— accused of living up stand to save borisjohnson'sjob. —— levelling up stand. talk us through what is being alleged. stand. talk us through what is being alleaed. , ., ,.. alleged. there is nothing quite so enthusiastically _ alleged. there is nothing quite so enthusiastically approached - alleged. there is nothing quite so enthusiastically approached as . enthusiastically approached as recycling old money and putting it out as a press release as a new intervention. and we are still waiting for the much heralded levelling up report which was supposed to be this main plank of boris johnson's supposed to be this main plank of borisjohnson's premiership. two boris johnson's premiership. two years borisjohnson's premiership. two years on, we still haven't seen it. it was coming out last week, it was supposed to be coming out soon, now the sue gray report and the met police is being used as the excuse for delaying everything. but this was a press release put out by michael gove's levelling up department, talk about a new fund for poor areas but on further

investigation by the