now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm ben brown and this week we pay tribute to one of the world's most remarkable women. her majesty queen elizabeth has been on the british throne for a record 70 years this weekend. also, we will be looking at the diplomatic offensive to persuade president putin not to invade ukraine. joining me in the studio to discuss that, thomas kielinger, die welt�*s veteran correspondent in london, and virtually, we have also the sunday times royal editor roya nikkhah

and the american journalist from bloomberg news stephanie baker. welcome to you all. thank you for being with us. roya, kick us off by talking about 70 years this weekend since a 25—year—old princess elizabeth, on safari with her husband, learned that her father, george vi, had died and suddenly she had lost a father and become queen. in the decades since, she has come to embody the british monarchy and, indeed, modern british history. a living link to churchill and the desperate days of the second world war and also link to the winds of change, as the british empire collapsed. roya, for a woman who didn't originally expect to be queen, she has done a pretty extraordinary job over 70 years. you are right, she has. listening to you trying to encapsulate that extraordinary 70 years, it's remarkable, thinking of the link back to winston churchill,

we are 1a prime ministers on and the way things are going, borisjohnson might not be her last, and she has seen so much and she has experienced so much, and yet one of the extraordinary things about the queen is that, where it has been a long reign, 70 years, no other british monarch has done that, and is almost 96, i think one of the key things of the success of her reign is how the queen has acknowledged that she needs to perhaps slowly but still absolutely embrace change and make sure the monarchy evolves, this age—old institution keeps evolving. i think that's one reason why, when we are polled in this country about people's views of the monarchy, it's still popular, and the queen is still so popular. those images we are starting to see, and we will see more over the weekend, the queen starting to mark that milestone, she is this most extraordinary historical figure, there is almost nobody else in the world who has seen

and experienced so much of politics, social, economic, political change. it's a remarkable feat. thomas, you have written about the queen extensively and you compared her to queen elizabeth i. in my biography, i had to look at this issue, because she herself as a young queen in 1953, in herfirst christmas broadcast, attached herself to the issue, what is the difference between myself and the elizabethan age before me? this quote is significant. the queen said, "some people have expressed the hope that my reign may mark a new elizabethan age. frankly, i do not feel myself at all like my great tudor forebear, who was blessed with neither husband or children, who ruled as a despot was never able to leave her native shores. but there is at least one very significant resemblance between her age and mine, for her kingdom, small though it may have been and poor by comparison

with european neighbours, was yet great in spirit and well endowed with many men who were ready to encompass the earth." that, to me, is the difference, because who encompasses the earth now from britain? the queen herself — she is the most widely travelled monarchy in the world. she has been called the queen of the world. she travels and she is a global figure. when i say that, i'm reminded of the theatre in which shakespeare played and performed, called the globe. the country has had a global figure since those tudor days, and why brexit chose "global britain" as a mantra to follow, i don't understand. it's always been global. politically, the country has declined, no question, when you compare 1952 to 2022, but that's a different story to the tudor days, britain was in the ascendancy and became a large and important power, now she is declining,

she is a middling player on the national stage. but she is still there and she follows the motto of her predecessor, elizabeth i, who used the latin phrase, "semper eadem" — always the same. she has been the same in all the changes that have happened around her. stephanie, how do you think she is seen in america and around the world? what is their view of queen elizabeth? i think she is incredibly popular, particularly in the us. _ she has met 12 us presidents, so she is as much a part- of our history as she is, given her reign, over 14 british prime ministers. americans love the queen and will lap up the pomp i and pageantry of the jubilee celebrations later this year. | prince william and kate are very. popular, but prince charles is less so, and i think one of the issues as well that could overshadow, i

unfortunately, the queen'sjubilee is the prince andrew trial- in new york, the case against him by virginia giuffre. _ i think that threatens to cast - a dark shadow over the celebrations. if it goes to trial and does not settle, we could have a lot. of unsavoury testimony coming out. virginia giuffre is seeking - the testimony of prince andrew's equerry, robert 0lney, - as well as other testimony that could prove quite damaging if it does go to trial. - i think that could cast a dark shadow over celebrations i later this year, likewise - prince harry's memoir that is due to come out later this year, - could also come out with potentially i embarrassing details and revive i these allegations that were made

i during their interview with 0prah| about someone in the royal family making a racist remark, - and i think it's quite sad that such a momentous celebration could be kind of marred - by both of those things. roya, there have been dark shadows before, of course, during the 70 year reign. there was the annus horribilis, and the claim that the royal family were perhaps out of touch after diana's death. there have been lows for the queen. there have, and i think stephanie has succinctly summed up how much the queen is still having to deal with at the age of 95. it's quite interesting, i have written quite a lot about the queen recently, and there is a feeling, you mention the annus horribilis in 1992, the breakdown of some of her children's marriages, the burning of windsor castle, and there was a feeling in royal circles in the run—up to the golden jubilee that nobody quite knew how it was going to go,

the monarchy had hit lows in public opinion toward the end of the �*90s, and yet the outpouring of affection for the queen in 2002 took everybody by surprise. i think people in royal circles felt that was a page turner, the goldenjubilee, and there was a feeling that the institution was on the mend again. i have to pick up on one thing thomas says, which i'm going to disagree with, that the queen is no longer a big power player in the world stage, he says, and i know that the queen has to be above politics — i would disagree, but i think the soft power she still deploys is enormous, and we keep seeing that, and at the g21, it was so interesting to me to see how everyone from biden to macron to merkel were jostling to be photographed next to her, the only unelected head of state there, and the way the queen was deployed to the g21 and cop, doing the remote virtual message, she is still above politics but she is still a huge soft power

player on the international stage. what do you say to that, thomas? there is no doubt about it. you must have misunderstood what i meant to say — i was saying as a political power, britain is diminished compared to where the queen started and britain is no longer a major world power, but as a figure of influence, the queen stands above it all, and i quite agree with you that, amazingly, despite all the change, she presides over a certain charisma, almost, that attaches itself to royalty and to britain. the monarchy itself does not explain what political power is in the world. it's a different thing. but i agree with you that the charisma of the monarchy is the abiding feature of how you recognise great britain in those 70 years. no scandal, no transformation has been able to topple the british attachment to monarchy

as the recognisable feature of your institutional stability. stephanie, do you think her long reign, stability, as thomas says, continuity, has underpinned british democracy over all those decades? yes, i think it has. she is a constant. she has remained - steadfastly impartial. she is a steadying presence through times of crisis, - and i think she has definitely provided that continuity and, if you look at it, in two years' time, she will be the longest| serving monarch in history. she will surpass louis xiv. that is an incredible achievement and i think, without her, - i i think the country is facing real. challenges for the sad day, when it comes, when she passes away, because i think there will be .

a real transition and a real rethink for the monarchy i when prince charles takes over, and i think there are a lot - of questions about. how it is managed — prince charles has talked about a slimmed down monarchy. - of course, we know much more about his political views- than we do with the queen, i so i think he will have a harder time rising above the political fray as she has, and i think— there will be a real- difficulty grappling with how prominent is prince charles, - what role does he give to his more popular son, prince william, - and how do they navigate what can be very difficult _ political waters ahead? i think it's fair to say a lot of republicans even have a respect for the queen's sense of duty, hard work, her devotion to her role,

but picking up on what stephanie was talking about, how does the monarchy maintain its relevance? you were talking earlier about the need to modernise. absolutely. it was interesting, i remember a quote from prince william around the time of the queen's 90th, saying, "one of my big challenges is, how do i keep this relevant for the future?" i was in barbados recently, as it became a republic. there is no doubt that when the queen is no longer with us in the future, our position in the world will change, and the great challenge for the prince of wales and prince william will be, how do we keep it relevant? i think prince charles is acutely aware of that, particularly given his age — he will be an old king — and i think the slimmed down monarchy is just part of it. we know he wants to open up the palaces and private royal homes and bring the public closer to the monarchy. i think there will be a lot

of change under king charles to modernise the monarchy when he becomes king. i think thomas wants a last word on this. i look forward to the changes, but i am rather sanguine about the survivability of the institution. it's 1000 years old and, throughout history, there have been many on the throne who were not very liked, almost despised, one thinks of george iii and so forth, and the attachment of great britain as a country and a people to its ancient institutions is such that it is well likely to survive all the changes and uncertainties that may come. i predict that this institution, kingdom, in britain, will be here to stay and, as long as there is a united kingdom, there will be a monarchy in britain to recognise her as what she is. that is the antiquity of the institution. thomas, thank you very much. we are going to turn our attention to the crisis over ukraine. with well over 100,000 russian

troops massed on its borders, president putin is still very much keeping us guessing about whether or not he is indeed planning an invasion. boris johnson flew to kyiv to show support for the ukrainian president, while mr putin has been meeting his chinese counterpart, president xijinping. the two allies stood shoulder to shoulder in demanding nato stops its eastward expansion. stephanie, what do you think now, in terms of the diplomatic efforts to try and stop an invasion, to stop a war in ukraine, which could be incredibly bloody, have those diplomatic efforts really got a chance? i think they do. look, it looks like putin views| the threat of invasion as more i useful than an actual invasion, l which would be incredibly costly on many different levels. do you think is bluffing, essentially? no—one can get inside .

putin's head, obviously, but it does look like he is building up his forces. i there were 90,000 to 100,000 troops on the border in april 2021, so, - although has been an additional build—up and movement - of forces since then, this has been ongoing for quite a while. - the sources we talk to seem to say he is using this as leverage, - as diplomatic leverage, i to get security guarantees that he wants. can he get those guarantees? is the west going to give him those guarantees? i i don't think they are going to give. in to his demand that they guarantee that ukraine never becomes part of new _ that's a step too far. but there was some responses that were leaked, us responses, - which provided some openings for strategic dialogue over, -

for instance, intermediate—range - nuclear missiles, which is something that russia has been asking to start negotiating on for a while now. - i think the us made some overtures about agreeing not to deploy- offensive weaponry in ukraine. so i think there is - some common ground. what you see coming out of russia, l which is significant, is they keep l banging the drum about implementing the minsk agreements, _ which are these 2015 ceasefire . agreements to stop the fighting, and they want that to go forward through this normandy format, i which is germany, france, russia and ukraine, - to restart those talks, but fundamentally, i russia and ukraine have different i interpretations of that minsk report and how to implement it. russia wants to implement it . in a way whereby you hold local elections in the donbass region,

|and re—integrate it with the restj of ukraine and give it i an autonomous status. ukraine disagrees with that - interpretation and wants to regain control over its border with russia there, then hold local elections i and perhaps give some special autonomy to the region. - i think what putin really wants is ultimately to use that - as a way to destabilisej ukraine going forward. everyone talks about putin - as being this master strategist, but ultimately he miscalculated in 2014 by annexing crimea - and backing separatists in the east of ukraine, i because he took the pro—russian forces and ukraine's political- dialogue off the table, . and so it united ukraine, made it much more unified in its tilt to the west- and undermined his ability|

to control through proxies. so i think his main goal- is to try to destabilise ukraine. i don't think he wants - to march troops into kyiv. roya, it is quite a terrifying prospect that, in 2022, we have more than 100,000 troops, who could, we don't know, but it's possible, could mount an invasion and there could be a really bloody war in europe. it is a terrifying prospect and i thought what was even more terrifying, actually, was when borisjohnson went over to ukraine earlier this week and was there standing shoulder to shoulder with the president. we talked earlier about our position in the world, and all diplomatic routes are being explored and we are giving support to ukraine, but borisjohnson was dogged during this press conference about what you have described, a terrifying prospect of war in europe, with what was going on at home, and thomas mentioned our position in the world, on the international stage, and it feels at the moment

that perhaps even our attempts to push the diplomatic route are damaged because of what's going on back here, and i think that is one of the more worrying aspects for us back home in terms of our position in the world and what we can do on the diplomatic stage when we have the distractions of borisjohnson�*s leadership back here. but it is a terrifying prospect and it feels that leadership here is distracted to deal with that, and that's worrying. thomas, what is putin's game? what is his strategy? what are his sensitivities, which the west misread seven and more years ago? the soviet union collapsed and we thought the west had triumphed and we expanded nato. we were forgetting that, for one thing, ukraine, in russian sentiment, is part of russia, in the sense that kyiv is part of the capitals of the old russian identity, so should you move an alliance

like nato right up to the border with russia? i spent eight years in america covering us policy from the white house, and the americans have such a thing as the monroe doctrine, which doesn't allow a neighbouring country around america to have an alliance with another force which would likely position its weapons in the neighbourhood of the us. should we not have recognised russia's, as it were, entitlement to similar treatment, that no kind of organised alliance should come close to their borders with troops and defence alliances? that was a mistake. so to what extent can you satisfy putin's request that this not happen? i think to say that ukraine has a right to join and so forth, she's a free country, but behind the scenes there has to be some diplomatic understanding of the issue of nato moving up to the frontier of russia is not a viable one, not a useful one.

it'll only incense russian sentiments while, at the same time, i totally find an acceptable for russia to occupy ukrainian i totally find unacceptable for russia to occupy ukrainian territory and countryside, but we have not dealt properly with russia's concern, as a big power, for another alliance to come to their borders and appear to be threatening. they overblow this threat, of course, but we should, a diplomatic solution should be about allowing ukraine to be a free country without a promise to become a nato ally. that would be foolhardy and we need to get off that position completely. stephanie, you are based in moscow. what is your sense of what the russian people think on this? i know it's massively hard to generalise, especially from a distance, but do you think they share president putin's anger about an eastward—expanding nato,

or do you think perhaps putin is just using all of this to try and shore up his support at home? he has a lot of economic problems at home. i i don't think there is any reali support in russia for an all—out invasion of ukraine, _ particularly among the younger generation, who would have to be fighting on the front line - in this war. he hasn't been talking it up. in the way you might expect, to drum up support for such a huge military action. - it could be another afghanistan or chechnya, in which russian troops just get bogged down. exactly, and i don't think anybody thinks they can i march their forces into ukraine, into kyiv and beyond, _ and actually hold it without it being incredibly costly, - both in terms of lives - and in terms of financial cost, as well as the possibility of sanctions. _

i do think russians like seeing their leader as a strong - figure on the world stage, and he has achieved that. by this military build—up. he has gotten the - attention of the west. he has managed to then get nato to sit down with him. _ he has restarted this . normandy format talks on the situation in eastern ukraine. in that sense, there - is support for his actions, but a full—scale military invasion, i don't see that. _ thomas, do you think war can be avoided? i think putin knows how unconscionable the consequences would be if he invades. i think he calculates quite well the risks he is running, so i think he would step away from that threat. he makes blustery noises to convince the west he has sensitivities that need to be satisfied, but i don't think in reality he is planning to occupy.

he could mount a partial invasion. that's as good as an invasion, whatever you call it, it's an invasion, period, and a partial one is as good as a proper all—out war. it is war, violation of international territorial accords, and absolutely unacceptable. he knows that. the consequences would be such as to outweigh the pros and the profit that he hopes to gain from it. i think he can calculate quite well what he has lined up against him to stay away from the ultimate threat of occupying ukraine. he got away with crimea at a time when we were not really paying attention, but the next step is a whole different ball game, and i don't think it's likely to happen in the near future. i think he will refrain from it in his own mind. thank you very much and thanks to stephanie and roya as well. very good to have you all with us.

and that is all we have time for this week. many thanks again to all my guests — thomas kielinger, roya nikkhah and stephanie baker. thanks very much to you too for watching. please do join us on dateline again next week at the same time, same place. goodbye from all of us. hello again. our weather will feel quite a lot colder today compared with yesterday, and it has been cold enough for some snow. this is how we started the day in the highlands of scotland, a thick covering here. i'm not too far away from their in

inverness, we have also had a little bit of snow giving some icy conditions first thing this morning. for many of us the weather will brighten up today, sunshine and showers, but with cold and gusty north—westerly winds. the satellite picture shows the shower cloud streaming and across the north, we have had thick cloud across england and wales bringing widespread outbreaks of rain this morning. but the sound of rain will be clearing its way eastwards, so the weather will to improve —— may continue to improve for most across england and wales. there is a risk we could see rain lingering across western areas of cornwall or most of us seeing sunshine but showers will be frequent across north—western areas. nowhere is a mere —— immune from seeing a downpour but the showers will continue to fall as snow in the highlands of scotland, where it is high elevations, we are looking at 10 to 15 centimetres of snow. that could cause some localised transport disruption and it's going to be a cold kind of day, temperatures for

“p cold kind of day, temperatures for up to 7 celsius but factor in the cold north—westerly winds and it really will feel quite chilly out and about. still hanging on to something a little bit milder in the far south. tonight, showers will continue for the first part of the night, and after midnight they should tend to fade away, the sky is clear and the winds fall light. it will be called with a widespread frost and there could be some icy stretches to take us into monday morning. monday will see another change in the weather pattern as this warm front moves in from the west, bringing milder south—westerly winds. for many, it is going to be quite a nice sunrise first thing. after that fine and sunny start, the weather will cloud over, this area of drizzle and light patchy rain moving on from the west. there could be some mist and fog patches around coasts and hills. we end the day with heavy rain pushing into western scotland. it might be quite witty times but it will be a lot milder, temperatures in double figures for most, 10 to 12, and keeping the mild air into tuesday and wednesday,

turning cooler late in the week but more dry and more as well. —— more sunny as well.

good afternoon. the queen marks the 70th anniversary of the beginning of her reign today — a milestone no british monarch has reached before. her majesty has marked the occasion with a statement saying she wants camilla, the duchess of cornwall, to be known as queen consort when prince charles eventually becomes king.

this morning, the prince of wales said he and the duchess were "deeply