to coordinate efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the ukraine crisis. mr macron will travel to moscow later to speak to his russian counterpart, vladimir putin. russia has continued to deploy large numbers of troops on the ukrainian border. at least ten people have been killed and thousands left homeless in madagascar after the island was hit by the second severe storm in two weeks. cyclone batsirai brought strong winds and heavy rains leading to flooding. whole villages were reported to have been almost completely destroyed. the canadian capital ottawa has declared a state of emergency in response to more than a week of protests by truckers against covid restrictions. the mayor said the protests posed a threat to the safety of residents. the truckers have paralysed the city with vehicles and tents blocking roads. now on bbc news, it's time

for dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm ben brown and this week, we pay tribute to one of the world's most remarkable women. her majesty queen elizabeth has been on the british throne for a record 70 years this weekend. also on the program, we will be looking at the diplomatic offensive to persuade president putin not to invade ukraine. well, joining me in the studio to discuss all of that — thomas kielinger, die welt�*s veteran correspondent here in london and, virtually, we have also the sunday times�* royal editor roya nikkhah, and the american journalist from bloomberg news

stephanie baker. welcome to you all. thank you so much for being with us. roya, why don't you kick us off here? because we're talking about 70 years this weekend since a 25—year—old princess elizabeth, on safari with her husband, learned that her father, george vi, had died. suddenly, she had lost a father and become queen. well, in the decades since, she has come to embody the british monarchy and, indeed, modern british history. a living link to churchill and the desperate days of the second world war, and also a link to the winds of change as the british empire collapsed. so, roya, for a woman who didn't originally expect to be queen, she has done a pretty extraordinary job over 70 years! i think you're abslutely right, ben, she has. listening to you trying to encapsulate that

extraordinary 70 years, it's remarkable, thinking of the link back to winston churchill, we are 1a prime ministers on now — and the way things are going, perhaps we'll talk about later, borisjohnson might not be her last — and she has seen so much and she has experienced so much and yet, one of the really extraordinary things, ithink, about the queen is that, where it has been a long reign, 70 years, historic, no other british monarch has done that — and is almost 96, i think one of the key things of the success of her reign is how the queen has acknowledged that she needs to perhaps slowly but still absolutely embrace change and make sure that the monarchy evolves and this age—old institution keeps evolving. i think that's one of the reasons why, when we are constnatly polled in this country about people's views of the monarchy, it's still popular, and the queen is still so popular. but i think these images that we are starting to see — and we will see more over the weekend — of the queen starting to mark that milestone, she is this most extraordinary historical figure. there is almost nobody else

lke her in the world who has seen and experienced so much of politics, social, economic, political change. it's a remarkable feat. thomas, you have written about the queen extensively and you compared her to queen elizabeth i? well, yes. in my biography, i had to look at this issue because she herself, as a young queen in 1953, in her first christmas broadcast, attached herself to the issue — what is the difference between myself and the elizabethan age before me? have to redo this quotation. it is significant. —— have to read you this quotation. the queen said, "some people have expressed the hope "that my reign may mark a new elizabethan age. "frankly, i do not feel myself at all like my great tudor "forebear, who was blessed with neither husband "or children, who ruled as a despot and was never able "to leave her native shores. "but there is at least one very significant resemblance "between her age and mine, for her kingdom, small though "it may have been and poor by comparison with european

"neighbours, was yet great in spirit and well endowed "with many men who were ready to encompass the earth." that, to me, is the difference, because who encompasses the earth now from britain? the queen herself! she is the most widely travelled monarch in the world. robert hardman, in his last book, calls her queen of the world. she travels and she is a global figure. when i say that, i'm reminded of the theatre in which shakespeare played and performed, called the globe. the country has been a global figure since those tudor days and why the brexit people, for example, chose "global britain" as a mantra to follow, i don't understand. it's always been global. now, politically, the country has declined — no question about it, when you compare 1952 to 2022 — but that's a different story to the tudor days. britain was on the ascendancy and she became a large and important power. now, it's declining — she is a middling player

on the international stage — but she is still there and she follows the motto of her predecessor, elizabeth i, who used the latin phrase, "semper eadem" — always the same. she has been the same in all the changes that have happened around her. indeed. stephanie, how do you think she is seen in america and around the world? what is their view of queen elizabeth? i think she is incredibly popular, particularly. in the united states. she has met, i believe, 12 us| presidents, so she is as much a part of our historyl as she is, you know, given her reign, over mj british prime ministers. so, you know, americans love . the queen, will lap up the pomp and pageantry of the jubilee celebrations later this year. | prince william and kate - are very popular, but prince charles is less so, and i think one of the issues as well that could overshadow, - unfortunately, the queen's jubilee is the prince andrew

trial in new york, the case. against him - by virginia giuffre. and i think that does threaten to cast a dark shadow - over the celebrations. if it goes to trial and does - not settle, we could have a lot of unsavoury- testimony coming out. you know, virginia giuffre has — is seeking the testimony- of prince andrew's - equerry, robert 0lney, as well as other testimony that could prove quite damaging - if it does go to trial. so, i think that could cast - a dark shadow over celebrations later this year. likewise, prince harry's memoir that is due to come out- later this year could also come out with potentially— embarrassing details and revive these allegations that _ were made during their interview with 0prah i about someone in the royal.

family making a racist remark, and i think it's quite sad, - actually, that such a momentous celebration _ could be kind of marred by both of those things. roya, there have been dark shadows before, of course, during the 70—year reign. there was the annus horribilis and the claim that the royal family were perhaps out of touch after diana's death, so there have been lows, haven't there, for the queen? there have, and i think stephanie has succinctly summed up how much the queen is still having to deal with on her plate at the age of 95. it's quite interesting. i have written quite a lot about the queen recently and there was very much is a feeling — you mention the annus horribilis in 1992, the breakdown of some of her children's marriages, the burning of windsor castle. there was a feeling in royal circles in the run—up to the goldenjubilee in 2002, no—one quite knew how it was going to go.

the monarchy had hit lows in public opinion toward the end of the �*90s and yet, the outpouring of affection for the queen in 2002 took everybody by surprise — not even her — and i think people in royal circles felt that was a page—turner, the golden jubilee, and there was a feeling that the institution was sort of on the mend again. i think — actually, i have to pick up on one thing thomas says which i'm going to disagree with — that the queen is no longer a big power player on the world stage politically. i know that the queen has to be above politics. i would disagree. i think the soft power she still deploys is enormous, and we keep seeing that and at the g21, it was so interesting to me to see how everyone, from biden to macron to merkel, they were jostling to be photographed next to her, the only unelected head of state among her, and the way the queen was deployed to the g21 — and, of course, at cop, doing the remote virtual

message — make no mistake, she is still above politics but she is still a huge soft power player on the international stage. what do you say to that, thomas? because she is, isn't she? there is no doubt about it. you must have misunderstood what i meant to say. i was saying politics — as a political power, britain is diminished compared to when the queen started and britain is no longer a major world power but as a figure of influence, the queen stands above it all. and i quite agree with you that, amazingly, despite all the change, she presides over a certain charisma, almost, that attaches itself to royalty and to britain. but the monarchy itself does not explain what political power is in the world. it's a different thing. but i agree with you that the charisma of the monarchy is the abiding feature of how you recognise great britain in those 70 years. nothing — no scandal, no transformation has been able to topple the british attachment to monarchy as the recognisable feature of your institutional stability.

well, let's talk about that stability with stephanie. do you think her long reign, stability, as thomas says — continuity, really — has underpinned british democracy over all those decades? yes, i think it has. i mean, she is a constant. she has remained - steadfastly impartial. she is a steadying presence through times of crisis, - and i think she has definitely provided that continuity and, if you look at it, she is — - in two years' time, she will be the longest servingj monarch in history. she will surpass louis xiv. and that isjust an incredible achievement and i think - without her, i think- the country is facing real challenges for when she — l the sad day, when it comes, when she does pass i

away, because i think there will be a real transition and a real rethink for the - monarchy when prince charles takes over, and i think- there are a lot of questions about how it is managed. l prince charles has talked - about a slimmed—down monarchy. of course, we know much more about his political views- than we do with the queen, so i think he will have - a hardertime rising. above the political fray as she has, and i think- there will be a real difficulty grappling with how prominent is prince charles, what role i does he give to his more i popular son prince william, and how do they navigate what can be very difficult| political waters ahead ? roya, last word to you on this. i think it's fair to say a lot of republicans, even, have a respect for the queen's sense of duty, her hard work, her devotion to her role.

but let's pick up on what stephanie was talking about — how does the monarchy maintain its relevance? you were talking earlier about the need to modernise. absolutely. it was interesting, i remember a quote from prince william around the time of the queen's 90th, when he was interviewed by the bbc and he said, "one of my big challenges is, how do i keep this relevant for the future?" i was in barbados recently, as it became a republic. and there is no doubt that when the queen is no longer with us in the future, our position in the world will change and the great challenge for the prince of wales and prince william will be how do we keep it releva nt? and i think prince charles is acutely aware of that, particularly given his age — he will be an old king — and i think his vision of a slimmed—down monarchy is just part of it. we know he wants to open up the palaces, the private royal homes and he wants to bring the public closer

to the monarchy and i think there will be a lot of change under king charles to modernise the monarchy when he becomes king. i said last word to roya but i think thomas wants a last word on this! i look forward to the changes but i am rather sanguine about the survivability of the institution. it's 1,000 years old and, throughout history, there have been many on the throne who were not very liked, who almost despised — one thinks of george iii and so forth, and the attachment of great britain as a country and a people to its ancient institutions is such that it is well likely to survive all the changes and uncertainties that may come. i predict that this institution, kingdom, in britain, will be here to stay and as long as there is a united kingdom, there will be a monarchy in britain to recognise her as what she is. that is the antiquity of the institution. all right, thomas, thank you very much. we are going to turn our attention to the crisis over ukraine. with well over 100,000 russian troops massed on its borders,

president putin is still very much keeping us guessing about whether or not he is indeed planning an invasion. well, boris johnson flew to kyiv to show support for the ukrainian president, while mr putin has been meeting his chinese counterpart, president xi jinping. the two allies stood shoulder to shoulder in demanding nato stops its eastward expansion. stephanie, what do you think now, in terms of the diplomatic efforts to try and stop an invasion, to stop a war in ukraine, which could be incredibly bloody, have those diplomatic efforts really got a chance? i think they do. look, it looks like putin - views the threat of invasion as more — useful than an actual invasion, which would be incredibly costly on manyl different levels. do you think he's bluffing, essentially? no—one can get inside putin's head, obviously, but it does i

look like he is building up his forces. - there were 90,000 to100,000 troops on the border in april- 2021, so, although has been an additional build—up - and movement of forces since then, _ this has been— ongoing for quite a while. the sources we talk to seem to say— he is using this as- leverage, as diplomatic leverage, - to get security guarantees that he wants. can he get those guarantees? is the west going to give him those guarantees? i don't think they are going to give in to his demand i that they guarantee that ukraine never becomesl part of nato. that's a step too far. but there was some responses . that were leaked, us responses, which provided some openings for strategic dialogue over, - forinstance.— intermediate—range nuclear

missiles, which is something that russia has been askingl to start negotiating on for a while now. j i think the us made some i overtures about agreeing not to deploy offensive . weaponry in ukraine. so i think there is - some common ground. what you see coming out of russia, which is significant,j is they keep banging - the drum about implementing the minsk agreements, - which are these 2015 ceasefire agreements to stop - the fighting, and they want that to go forward through this normandy format, - which is germany, france, russia and ukraine, - to restart those talks, but fundamentally, i russia and ukraine have different interpretations - of that minsk report and how to implement it. russia wants to implement it . in a way whereby you hold local elections in the donbass . region, and re—integrate it with the rest of ukraine and l

give it an autonomous status. ukraine disagrees with that interpretation and wants i to regain control over- its border with russia there, then hold local elections- and perhaps give some special autonomy to the region. i think what putin really wants is ultimately to use that - as a way to destabilisej ukraine going forward. everyone talks about putin as being this master- strategist, but ultimately he miscalculated in 2014| by annexing crimea and backing separatists in the east - of ukraine, because he took the pro—russian forces - and ukraine's political| dialogue off the table, and so it united ukraine, . made it much more unified in its tilt to the west- and undermined his ability to control through proxies. so i think his main goal is to try to destabilise i

ukraine. i don't think he wants - to march troops into kyiv. roya, it is quite a terrifying prospect that, in 2022, we have more than 100,000 troops, who could, we don't know, but it's possible, could mount an invasion and there could be a really bloody war in europe. it is a terrifying prospect and i thought what was even more terrifying, actually, was when borisjohnson went over to ukraine earlier this week and was there standing shoulder to shoulder with the president. we talked earlier about our position in the world, and all diplomatic routes are being explored and we are giving support to ukraine, but borisjohnson was dogged during this press conference about what you have described, a terrifying prospect of war in europe, with what was going on at home, and thomas mentioned our position in the world, on the international stage, and it feels at the moment that perhaps even our attempts

to push the diplomatic route are damaged because of what's going on back here, and i think that is one of the more worrying aspects for us back home in terms of our position in the world and what we can do on the diplomatic stage when we have the distractions of borisjohnson�*s leadership back here. but it is a terrifying prospect and it feels that leadership here is distracted to deal with that, and that's worrying. thomas, what is putin's game? what is his strategy? what are his sensitivities, which the west misread seven and more years ago? the soviet union collapsed and we thought the west had triumphed and we expanded nato. we were forgetting that, for one thing, ukraine, in russian sentiment, is part of russia, in the sense that kyiv is part of the capitals of the old russian identity, so should you move an alliance like nato right up to the border with russia? i spent eight years

in america covering us policy from the white house, and the americans have such a thing as the monroe doctrine, which doesn't allow a neighbouring country around america to have an alliance with another force which would likely position its weapons in the neighbourhood of the us. should we not have recognised russia's, as it were, entitlement to similar treatment, that no kind of organised alliance should come close to their borders with troops and defence alliances? that was a mistake. so to what extent can you satisfy putin's request that this not happen? i think to say that ukraine has a right to join and so forth, she's a free country, but behind the scenes there has to be some diplomatic understanding of the issue of nato moving up to the frontier of russia is not a viable one, not a useful one. it'll only incense russian sentiments while, at the same

time, i totally find unacceptable for russia to occupy ukrainian territory and countryside, but we have not dealt properly with russia's concern, as a big power, for another alliance to come to their borders and appear to be threatening. they overblow this threat, of course, but we should, a diplomatic solution should be about allowing ukraine to be a free country without a promise to become a nato ally. that would be foolhardy and we need to get off that position completely. stephanie, you were based in moscow. what is your sense of what the russian people think on this? i know it's massively hard to generalise, especially from a distance, but do you think they share president putin's anger about an eastward—expanding nato, or do you think perhaps putin is just using all of this to try and shore up his support at home?

he has a lot of economic problems at home. i don't think there is any real support in russia i for an all—out invasion - of ukraine, particularly among the younger generation, - who would have to be fighting on the front line in this war. he hasn't been talking it up. in the way you might expect, to drum up support for such a huge military action. - it could be another afghanistan or chechnya, in which russian troops just get bogged down. exactly, and i don't think anybody thinks they can i march their forces into - ukraine, into kyiv and beyond, and actually hold it without it being incredibly costly, - both in terms of lives - and in terms of financial cost, as well as the possibility of sanctions. _ i do think russians like seeing |their leader as a strong figure j on the world stage, -

and he has achieved that by this military build—up. he has gotten the - attention of the west. he has managed to then get nato to sit down with him. _ he has restarted this normandy format talks on the situation . in eastern ukraine. in that sense, there - is support for his actions, but a full—scale military . invasion, i don't see that. thomas, do you think war can be avoided? i think putin knows how unconscionable the consequences would be if he invades. i think he calculates quite well the risks he is running, so i think he would step away from that threat. he makes blustery noises to convince the west he has sensitivities that need to be satisfied, but i don't think in reality he is planning to occupy. he could mount a partial invasion. that's as good as an invasion, whatever you call it,

it's an invasion, period, and a partial one is as good as a proper all—out war. it is war, violation of international territorial accords, and absolutely unacceptable. he knows that. the consequences would be such as to outweigh the pros and the profit that he hopes to gain from it. i think he can calculate quite well what he has lined up against him to stay away from the ultimate threat of occupying ukraine. he got away with crimea at a time when we were not really paying attention, but the next step is a whole different ball game, and i don't think it's likely to happen in the near future. i think he will refrain from it in his own mind. thank you very much and thanks to stephanie and roya as well. very good to have you all with us. and that is all we have time for this week. many thanks again to all my guests — thomas kielinger,

roya nikkhah and stephanie baker. thanks very much to you too for watching. please do join us on dateline again next week at the same time, same place. goodbye from all of us. hello there. a quieter end to the night to come, those wintry showers are easing away, as are the winds, which have been a feature of the weather throughout the weekend. and that's because we're having a little ridge of high pressure building in. so not only are the winds easing but, as the showers die down, the cloud is breaking and temperatures tumbling away. close to freezing in many parts by dawn, so a much colder start by monday morning and potentially as well an icy start where the surfaces

are still damp because temperatures notjust in the air but on the roads will be close to freezing. you can stay up—to—date with the warnings as ever on our website. for the day ahead, we've got further weather fronts coming in and fairly brisk winds but not as windy as it has been, and as those weather fronts come in to the high pressure further south, there won't be that much rain but what they will do is introduce much milder air through the day. so initially there could be some snow on the forward edge of that weather front as it moves into the hills of scotland, but it will turn back to rain quite quickly. what we will find though is the sunshine that we start the day with. lovely bright start will tend to fade as the cloud comes in. still staying largely dry and bright across many central, southern and eastern areas, but some drizzly rain and hill fog in western and northern areas. more significant rain for the highlands and the islands but the temperatures — 10—12 degrees celsius. yes, there will be a stronger wind picking up towards the north—west, but much milder air to the south of our weather front, and that continues through monday night into tuesday. the colder air returns though with a few wintry showers

in the north. not as cold as it has been, and still much milder a night for many as we go into tuesday, when we have that weather front straddling the country. probably northern ireland, parts of scotland, northern england, perhaps north wales. the dividing line, if you like, between that mild atlantic air and lots of dry weather but quite cloudy weather in the south, and brighter but showery weather further the north. and we will see some sunshine breaking through equally in the south as well, and it will be very mild on tuesday, 13s and 14s. and still relatively around normal further north, even in the colder air. and that battle continues through the week, with our weather front straddling central areas, not producing that much rain, we don't think, as it's coming into the high pressure butjust keeping a lot of cloud with us here, whilst we could see a spell of windier weather midweek in the north and harnessing those wintry showers, but then high pressure builds towards the end of the week, for a lot of dry, bright but chillier weather.

this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm david eades. our top stories: can the french break the ice in tensions between russia and the west? presidents macron and putin to meet. we report on the frontline of hostilities in the east of the country. this entire village is a casualty of the conflict. it is extraordinary that anyone still lives here. the handful who remain are pretty much cut off. chinese tennis star peng shuai again denies making allegations of sexual assault in her first western media interview since the accusations emerged on social media. a second storm wreaks havoc in madagascar — whole villages are swept away as a cyclone leaves a trail of destruction