hello, this is bbc news. the headlines... a russian invasion of ukraine is highly likely. that's the assessment of the uk defence secretary, comparing some western diplomatic efforts to the appeasement of nazi germany — ukraine says that is not a helpful comparison. 13 people are injured after a mezzanine floor collapses at a pub in east london. following the resignation of the met police chief. the labour shadow home secretary warns that there is a perfect storm facing policing in the uk, and the force needs to be reformed. canada's prime minister says all options remain on the table, as efforts continue to remove protesters blocking key trade routes. and it's the biggest day of the year for american football, super bowl 56 takes place in los angeles. now on bbc news, it's time

for dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline london. i'm annita mcveigh. and this week, we assess the diplomatic efforts going on to persuade president putin not to invade ukraine. we also look at the alarming rise in the cost of living and compare what governments are doing to try to ease the pressure. and i'll find out from my guests which stories they think ought to be getting more of our attention. i'm joined by the london correspondent of the sydney morning herald, latika bourke, henry chu of the los angeles times, and in the studio with me this evening, the bbc�*s special correspondent clive myrie. welcome to you all. so let's begin with ukraine and that question of

whether diplomacy can work even as russia starts large—scale military drills with neighbouring belarus. while the usa and other countries have told their citizens in ukraine to leave the country as soon as possible, all interested parties say there's a will to continue talks and a will to negotiate. russia's main focus, it seems, is still on the us. crucially, russia has yet again emphasised that it feels its security concerns around potential nato expansion have not been answered. after talks involving a number of world leaders, hosted by president biden, nato�*s secretary generaljens stoltenberg said they stood united and prepared for any scenario and remained open for dialogue. henry, may i start with you? is this intense diplomacy, henry, getting us anywhere? we just heard from the us that it believes the world is now in the window very much where action by russia could begin, potentially, according to president biden�*s

national security adviser, even before the winter olympics end. to the extent that bullets are not yet flying and no blood has been shed, that's a good thing, and the more talking that can be done, the better, to try to put that prospect far off or prevent it altogether, but we also need to just look at what is happening on the ground during this time that the negotiation have been happening. you have ukraine almost encircled on all four sides of the north, south and east, by russian forces, by land and by sea. the forces are in easy striking distance of kyiv, certainly from belarus, where they've been conducting joint military drills, and that's just allowed president putin in russia to keep on piling on the pressure, making this invasion look like it could happen at any moment and getting in position for such a thing. and on the other side, to the west, you've got nato and the us deploying more troops, sending more of them

to the front—line eastern flank areas of the alliance. now the two are locked in this dance where, if we're not careful, through its own inexorable logic, it would take us right off the cliff. in terms of what the talking has achieved, let's remember that for president putin, he could be playing a long game, and when you have set yourself up to be leader for life, you can take a long view. and what he has already done is have these other countries that he thinks of as antagonists dance in attendance upon him. the flurry of meetings at very high levels with countries that had shut russia out or ignored it to a certain degree is staggering, and now russia is receiving the attention moscow thinks it deserves. you have that happening, and the allies who, for all their professions of unity, have to do a lot of talking to see what measures they are willing to impose and sacrifices they are willing to put up with in case of a russian invasion.

and the government in kyiv is being undermined daily by misinformation by russia, and by morale—sapping through all this talk of invasion. so certainly putin has achieved something with dragging this crisis out as much as possible. latika, a suggestion in all the diplomacy that ukraine adopts a neutral position, do you think that, ultimately, that is where the diplomacy might be heading, even though that, on the face of it, seems contradictory with the idea of ukraine determining its future? it has expressed that desire to, at some point, join nato. yes, i think that ukraine has made it very clear where its fortunes lie, and that's with nato, not as a neutral state. but either way, it does look like diplomacy is running out. there has been a very serious escalation in the rhetoric

from both britain and from the united states that we heard there from jake sullivan. just in the last two hours, boris johnson telling his counterparts of poland, germany, italy, nato, the european commission, and the united states, that he now fears for european security. that was not even a message we were hearing from the british government just a few hours ago. ben wallace was saying, actually, cooperation had gone from below zero to above zero, or about zero to above zero. not huge progress. whether it has been enough, the next few days will show, but this is the first time we have seen the united states actually put a timeframe on when they think the invasion could occur, and we are seeing us media — well—informed reports — saying that the invasion could occur in the next few days. diplomacy, neutrality for ukraine — i think that time is up. interesting, clive, latika's thinking in terms of diplomacy. what is your view on that? the situation outlined by the

white house is very dangerous. the white house warning of what they call false—flag incidents where russia tries to blame ukraine for starting military action. but do you think this rhetoric, this brinkmanship, if you want to call it that, is part of the natural evolution of the diplomacy in this process? ukraine is a huge country which, if the russians - do invade, are going to have to subdue. i and to do that, you need to have the right assets, | and they can move from belarus, straight down the road, - straight into kyiv, the capital. - wouldn't take that long. but they would have to hold the country, and that- could result in the kind of counterinsurgency, i with the body bags heading back to moscow, that putin does notl want to see. what the west has realised i is putin's assets are in place. he has been building up these forces over the last few- days and weeks.

the assets are in place - in order to launch the kind of invasion that could subduel the country, but that does not mean putin has decided he is going to invade, . and i think it's a veryl critical point to make. ijust heard a former uk- ambassador to washington saying that he still cannot believe putin will do this, - because it would be the most stupid thing to do. _ the ukrainians are going to . fight, weapons are flooding in. from the french and british. we have nato troops positioned in poland and nearby. _ it will be a bloody affair. putin is still, i suspect, i hoping he can get the kind of assurances he has been looking for from the - beginning by having all the assets in place. - i don't think we are as close to war as the americans - are pointing out. all the americans are saying, and boris johnson and - the others, all they're saying is, if he wanted to do it now, he could do it now. interesting to get those different views, and just to conclude this section of the programme,

henry, back to you. someone i spoke to recently about ukraine, an expert on the country, was talking about the jaw war rather than the war war — the talking — so is that what you think putin is trying to do, ramp up pressure, extract more concessions? we know that putin is a very calculated leader, and he knows full well that the minute there is an invasion, everything resets, right? some of the concessions he has been hoping for in the talks with us and nato, which he has not gotten yet, there at least have been some moves towards saying that there would be a negotiation over the security architecture in europe. it wouldn't exactly be what he wants in terms of complete banishment of ukraine and other countries from everjoining nato, but as i said, the minute

there are boots on the ground in ukraine, all of that goes off the table and any of those advantages or gains he would hope to have made would completely evaporate and get blown up, so i think he does realise that he needs to have pressure in order to get people to the table and he is willing to keep turning the screws until such time as that at least gets to some point of satisfaction for him. it doesn't mean that there won't be an invasion, but he still has time to let this play out and see if he can wrest more concessions from the west. 0k, well, let's move onto next topic in this dateline. energy costs up, food costs up, taxes up, inflation up. we've been talking about the cost of living crisis in the uk a lot, and this crisis is also global. what are governments around the world doing to help people cope? latika, let's begin with you on this, and tell us what the australian government is doing. inflation in australia is around 3.5%. that does not sound that high compared to the inflation jumps we are seeing in the united states and here in the uk, but from an australian

perspective, it is actually very high. it is the highest or fastest pace of growth since 2014, and in australia, the cost of living is already extremely expensive. salaries are very high, but the cost of living is also very high, so this is a potent political issue heading into an election. which australia is facing within the next three months. what we will see is the government announce some consumer feel—good policies. the trouble is, previous governments have tried this and they don't really work. energy prices are one real pressure point in australia. the government has brought in more hydropower to try and ease pricing, but with housing and energy prices at record prices in australia, any relief there is going to be quickly gobbled up. interestingly, on housing, new south wales, where sydney is the capital, the state premier there is going to announce today this scheme whereby they can give equity to the state government

and help first—time home—buyers to then acquire their first house, and even a situation where parents could give over some of their equity to government and help their kids get on the housing ladder. so there are some radical schemes in the works, but the cost of living in australia is always an electoral killer, and i think that could be a big sleeper issue heading into the election in may. clive, it is difficult to see how any schemes, whatever government comes up with them, will do anything significant to ease the immediate pressure on people, and that is certainly the case here in the uk. it is. you have the scottish - government having one—off £150 payments to people who are suffering - from fuel poverty. so the lowest—income families will get that i kind of one—off help. £350, again, to those in fuel poverty in england as well, l but some of that has to be paid back to the government. -

you've got these one—off payments which will help in the short—term, - but longer—term, it is about getting down inflation, . which is heading towards the 7.5% figure that the bank of england reckons it - will be around april time. you've got an increase in- taxes, in national insurance, coming, you've got the increase in the fuel cap as well, - which had kept energy prices down for ordinary people. i it is very, very difficult - indeed, but one suggestion put forward by the opposition labour party is a wealth tax, | a tax on those companies that have made huge profits - from extracting oil and gas. bp had huge profits — - they announced £10 billion in profits this week. shell last week announced huge profits as well. - the suggestion is that there should be a one—off tax - on these companies to help with the national—

economic picture. the criticism of that is that it does not . really help with supply, and it is the supply- issues longer—term that - are causing energy prices to go through the roof, and as- a result causing the squeeze on ordinary families. consequently, how do i you deal with all of this? you've got to hope that, at some point, energy. prices come down and that will have a levelling - effect on the overall economy generally. | although many experts think that that won't happen, oil prices coming down, for some time. and some countries are imposing that windfall tax on oil giants, like france, for example. henry, talk about that in the states. what is president biden doing to help hard—pressed people? i know one of the areas he's been looking at is ramping up infrastructure, to create more jobs and so on, but give us a broader sense of what it is like in the states at the moment. i was just there a few weeks ago, and indeed the pinch on people's wallets is really becoming quite felt now. there was one estimate that in the month ofjanuary,

the average house was looking at a rise in expenditure of about $275, which is a really hefty punch to the gut for many families, working families particularly, who are just getting by. and now you have gas prices, as we are talking about, going up. a totemic amount in the us, $3 per gallon, it's breached that in many places. it has come down in a few areas, but still it is hovering at a cost that many americans find extremely hurtful. and what we saw with inflation, 7.5%, we have hit that figure in the us. it's the biggestjump in a0 years, and what happened in the last month was notjust because of supply disruption. we have talked a lot about supply chains being cut because of the pandemic, but this time, what was driving inflation were rises in the cost of food, of electricity and also of shelter — apartment rents were going up, for example — and so

it's really hitting people where it hurts. this infrastructure package you talked about is something that actually finally was passed by the biden administation and by congress, and that will hopefully bring jobs in many areas where there's a lot of deprivation and also failing infrastructure, which, of course, makes a feedback loop with poverty, but a larger package that the government has been trying to put through is what's known as the build back better bill, which is more about social welfare, which would include real relief for these pocketbooks issues, such as more childcare help, bringing down the cost of drugs and medicine. but this package has been gummed up in congress, and notjust by republicans — who we know to a person will oppose it because it is coming from president biden — but by some of his own democrats, including joe manchin in virginia and kyrsten sinema in arizona. and until that obstacle can be overcome, i think americans will go on hurting.

that's fine for the gop, because we have got midterm elections coming up in november and, as latika was saying is the case for australia, cost—of—living rises and what feels like a real downside for american purses is deadly for any ruling party, and so the republicans would not be averse to seeing more of this pain go on, in terms of electoral advantage. and, latika, here in the uk, this cost—of—living crisis has often been crystallised with the image of people having to choose between food orfuel, and ijust wonder, is the squeeze as intense as that in australia? it varies. australia does a very good social safety net, so it is never in my mind as acute as some of the shortages that you do see in the uk, but certainly housing i think is the big killer. you have a generation that

cannot afford to buy a house, and with that comes little hope in theirfuture, their investment in capital and their feeling that they belong to the economy, and therefore wanting it to grow and thrive. and if you separate these generations from the economy, i think that is the longer—term generational issue that you have. and that's a big challenge here in the uk for the government — levelling up, we hear the westminster government talking about all the time, and that's the big challenge for them, to deliver on that. yeah, because you've got to have money to| deliver on all of that. we have already seen _ the government cut back on some of the attempts to approve the infrastructure, - particularly in rail in parts of the north of england, i those areas that voted - for borisjohnson in the last election that were expecting some kind of dividend - as a result of that. you've got to have an economy that is robust and strong, - and the gdp figures today actually suggested that i the british economy is rebounding and l doing pretty well. borisjohnson, -

the trick for him... if he gets over his current problems concerning - investigations into lockdown parties in downing street, l if he hangs onto power, - the trick for him is somehow balancing the competingl interests of those people in the north of england i that he needs to support, as well as keeping the economy on track, given the amount - of money that has been . borrowed in order to cope with the covid pandemic. challenges for governments everyhere to try to help people with the cost—of—living crisis. finally, let me ask all three of you to tell us of a story which we ought to be hearing more about but aren't. latika, i will begin with you. today, antony blinken was in melbourne with the quad foreign ministers of australia, india and japan, and it got lots and lots of attention, the news clips went everywhere. but there was a much more important or significant visit that should not go unnoticed that happened in australia this week, and that was the foreign minister

of lithuania, who travelled to canberra. growing up in australia, i don't think i ever heard everybody in my reporting or in my personal life raise lithuania as a country that anyone knew anything about, or was remotely interested, in or even really had a great relationship with in any way, but this week, it opened its first embassy in canberra, and the reason for this is china, because china has been trying to economically coerce lithuania in the same way that china has attacked and bullied australia. now you see these two countries forging a friendship, a relationship. they are going to work on trade, australia is going to set up a trade office in lithuania and try and help that tiny country maybe pick up some of its lost markets from china in australia, so china has this knack for pushing people together and perhaps losing friends along the way. interesting. i guess that's a story as old as time — alliances shift, new alliances form. henry, onto you.

what should be looking at in more detail? i think what's happening on the border between us and canada is really quite remarkable. we are hearing some about it, and particularly in north america... we have talked about this quite a lot — tell us why you think we ought to be looking at it even more closely! it is no longer something happening just in the us and canada, right? what is remarkable about it is how the because of the rise of social media, instant access to news and what is happening, this is really something that has been spreading around the world, this kind of idea that, through protest by truckers and blocking key infrastructure, this could really bring governments to their knees, so you had this happening in australia, new zealand, where the parliament in wellington was being besieged by a lot of truckers, and attempts at this in france. and there's even talk

that perhaps in vienna this is happening, so i find it really tricky. dissent in a democracy needs to be tolerated. it is important that people who have opposing views can express those views, sometimes even in ways that inconvenience others. you have now, though, a state of emergency in the state of ontario, the province of ontario, in canada, which is right across from detroit, and it's now rippling across the border to affect the auto industry on both sides of the border. what willjustin trudeau, the prime minister of canada, do? they are already talking about the possibility of cracking down more forcefully, perhaps bringing more police, maybe even military in, to clear this way, but it was trudeau himself, when, in india, farmers were blocking roads into new delhi, he was the one who said, "canada would always support free, nonviolent dissenting opinion," so he really has something tricky on his hands,

as will other governments if other lorry drivers follow suit around the world. always interesting to see how governments manage those competing interests. and, clive, your pick? i would keep an eye on kamila valieva, 15 years old, - the russian olympic committee figure skater — not russia, - because russia is banned — - an amazing skater for that age. she was part of the winning group team for the russian| olympic committee. earlier this week, she won - the gold medal, but that medal has not been presented, - because she was found to have had a banned substance - in her sample in december. the results of that have onlyjust come out. - the suggestion is that, i given that she isjust 15, would she have on her own potentially takenl

a banned substance? the allegations beginning to float out there now — l none of this has been- substantiated, but this is why i'm saying we should| keep an eye on this — the suggestion is that russian authorities are back— to their old tricks, - in terms of wider—scale use of banned substances. as i said, all allegations, - all suggestions, but the idea she has taken a banned - substance of her own volition or on her own, without anyone else being aware of it, - is something that people are going to start investigating. i there could be a lot more i to this than meets the eye. the fundametal question at stake here is, i guess, clive, whether a child, because she is a child, can be held culpable for something — not talking specifically about this case because, as you were saying, these are all allegations — but can a child be held responsible for this? exactly. just a minute left. anything else to squeeze in? latika?

you put me on the spot! something in the sydney morning herald, dawn fraser, a great olympian, has revealed that she stole not one but two olympic flags in her career, and today she has unveiled the olympic flag she nicked, prior to the one we all know about, so a bit of aussie thievery on display there! the athletes in beijing have been advised not to follow that one this time around. henry, in a line? the olympian eileen gu, american—born but skiing for china, and what that has meant for relations between the two sides. really interesting to hear you all finish off on olympic stories. thanks so much, latika bourke, henry chu, and, of course, clive myrie. that is it for dateline london this week.

we are back next week at the same time. goodbye. with a few exceptions, pretty wet and a bit of a theme coming through this week, the jet stream and strengthened coming out of north america, pushing across the atlantic which is blowing winds of up to 200 mph, the wind to develop jet streams flow pressure for us and one has been this area of low cloud that has pushed on through the morning bringing extensive rain across most parts of the uk, drive for some parts and the rain will push on through the afternoon, easing off a bit through western areas with some heavy pulses around across western parts of scotland, through the afternoon and to

the north of northern ireland, the foreign office got londonjoin the best of the day's weather, one or two isolated showers with spells of hazy sunshine and wind is light as he was strong to gale—force across southern parts. the wind is coming from a general southerly direction, but where we should be for this stage at 7—11 c but parts of scotland and east of scotland, east anglia, a few showers in the west which continue through a night and some guy is developing for many in between the showers with a northerly wind kicking and temperatures dropping so across parts of central and southern scotland, northern ireland, we could see a touch of frost into tomorrow. for tomorrow, this is the pressure, how to get to the north sea, ridge of high pressure follows link in its wake so the... we have become fewer. lots of outbreaks of rain here and there were brightening up and sunny spells for northern ireland some of the dry weather, some parts of scotland. wintry with a covering of sleet

and snow in places and even though temperatures may show at 5—9, 10 celsius on thermometers, the strength of the wind will make it feel colder. and tuesday, after a chilly start, is now first thing across the hills of scotland, followed through to northern ireland and england and through to southern counties and temperatures here is not 10—11 c where it is a bit cool towards the north and that mild i will put its way northwards into the midweek coming through the mid—atlantic but it is all tied into this, pretty significant area of low pressure which will wipe its way and across the north of scotland, bringing on wednesday into thursday gust of wind in excess of 70—80 mph and throughout this week, expect further rain at times, too. goodbye for now.

good afternoon. the defence secretary, ben wallace, says it's highly likely vladimir putin will order russian

forces to attack ukraine.