this is bbc news with the latest headlines: a russian invasion of ukraine is �*highly likely�*. that's the assessment of the defence secretary ben wallace — comparing some western diplomatic efforts to the appeasement of nazi germany. but the ukrainian ambassador to the uk said it wasn't the best time to offend partners. you can't trust a word of russians, but at the same time, we have to work with them. there is diplomacy. so, we don't trust, but we have to find where we can actually work together to understand how the situation can be defused. the us evacuates most of its embassy staff in kyiv as it expects that a russian military incursion could come �*any day'. war can take an unpredictable path and if russia does act in the way that we fear it will it will bring tremendous hardship and greater insecurity into the heart of europe.

thirteen people are injured after a mezzanine floor collapses at a pub in east london. early results shows that people in switzerland have voted in favour of tightening the country's tobacco laws by banning virtually all advertising of tobacco products. and coming up at 3.30 — the story of olympic, world and european champion in figure skating john curry, and the impact his career had on sport and the lgbt+ community. the defence secretary, ben wallace, says it's highly likely vladimir putin will order russian forces to attack ukraine. mr wallace says current diplomatic efforts have "a whiff of munich in the air" — a reference to the efforts to make a peace deal

with hitler before world war two. he's now returning to the uk from a family holiday in europe early because of his concerns over "the worsening situation in ukraine". russia has up to 130,000 troops along its border with ukraine. the kremlin has repeatedly denied any plans to invade. here's our political correspondent charlotte rose. visits to moscow this week by the uk defence secretary ben wallace along with phone calls by the prime minister and us presidentjoe biden seem to have done little to change the minds of russian leaders. and scenes of tanks rolling up to a european border have made some western politicians fearful of history repeating itself. in an interview with the times this morning, mr wallace said the current situation had, "a whiff of munich in the air from some in the west." which many had thought was a reference to attempts by european leaders to appease hitler before the second world war. but it's been stressed

that he still believes attempts at diplomacy to de—escalate the situation are important. his cabinet colleague was asked to clarify his remarks. he's not talking about appeasement. i think the comparison ben was drawing, i know the comparison he was drawing, it was around the attempts for a diplomatic outcome that it turned out adversaries at the time were not really interested in. is he directing this at france, germany? no, no, the point he is making is that we are all working on this to find a diplomatic outcome. labour says it shares the government's concerns about the seriousness of the situation. it is immensely serious and nobody should be naive about what russia is up to. and the scale of the troops amassing on the ukraine border. and that's why i think there has to be this extremely strong and swift and severe economic sanctions, financial sanctions, looking at the energy sector. meanwhile, this morning came this warning from an american foreign policy adviser. war can take an unpredictable path and we think if— russia does act in the way we fear

it will, it will bring _ tremendous hardship and greaterl insecurity into the heart of europe and that is a concern to all of us. it's a concern to the - united states as a nato ally. brits living in ukraine have been told to leave the country whilst commercial flights are still available. but that's not an option for ukrainian people and the country's president says talk of an invasion is overblown. with the german chancellor due to visit moscow next week, nato allies hope that talking can stop the march towards war. charlotte rose, bbc news. ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky is due to speak the us presidentjoe biden later today. 0ur correspondent in kyiv james waterhouse says despite the threat, life is continuing as normal for many ukrainians. the government here has described this information about what could happen as unhelpful, whether it will be a full—scale invasion,

an air strike on the capital kyiv, or otherwise. they have called it less than helpful, but they are striking a defiant tone. the foreign minister says the country's diplomacy, military and economy are all stronger than they were eight years ago when russia first annexed crimea. he also gave an assurance that ukraine would be ready for any scenario. that said, it is a crisp day here. ukrainians are getting on with their sunday as normal, going for a coffee and a walk, completely at odds with the growing urgency in political language by western leaders as well as the growing movement of russian troops along the border as well as to the north, a movement of troops that is getting harder and harder to ignore. earlier my colleaguejoanna gosling spoke to ukraine's ambassador to the united kingdom, vadym prystaiko, about the comparison to nazi germany,

and whether he believed moscow could negotiate in good faith. how can we believe after what has happened to us, after all these years of war, previous promises, like, we will defend you if you give up nuclear weapons and getting out of crimea by 2017, which we signed with them, and still, 2022, and they are still there — so we cannot believe or trust the word of russians but at the same time we have to work with them, there is diplomacy, so we don't trust but we have to find where we can work together to understand how the situation can be defused. what is the scope for that? i think we are unfortunately reaching the moment when all the cards are already on the table, all the leaders made their visits, telephone calls, collectively, personally, individually, the russians act quite unhappy that they haven't received the answers on their demands which they put to nato, that nato will roll back on 1997 line. who even remember where the network, 1997?

everything which was done already can be done, maybe something more, maybe, but we are reaching a point where the decision has to be made. is there any way that ukraine could give any sort of assurance to moscow on future membership of nato? because as things stand it is hard to see how ukraine does become a member of nato in the immediate future. russia brings so many different realities brought to the table at the same time. they talk about their vulnerability, and ukrainians' possible membership in nato, eastern ukraine, which ukraine have to be pressed to go with the minsk process, so there are many different things. if we talk about nato only, ukraine has been trying to get in nato at least 20 years, were promised in 2008 that ukraine would become a member of nato. when and how is a decision of the family, so all the 30 members have to decide when and if ukraine becomes a member. we're getting prepared and we are asking —

it's not we want to poke a bear from behind the bars of nato, no, we just can't find anything better than nato in the part of the european part of the globe. do you understand russia's concerns about the eastward expansion of nato? i do understand my concerns. we are already dying, we are not threatening russia, what people are doing, t5hey are killing us, 13,500 already dead because they wanted to prove some point. it's not like nato is getting into russian borders, each and every nation from the soviet union and baltic states, they are fleeing and trying to escape. russia have to look in the mirror and understand what is actually happening. is nato encroaching, or everybody else is just running away from russia? is russia concerned about an existential threat if ukraine becomes a member of nato and that increases westward looking from the soviet states? i understand the danger of ukraine as to the way russians are ruled right now. it is not to the russian people, it is a huge territory,

and not to russian resources and cities, maybe this is a danger for putin and his way of ruling his own people, if ukraine actually become something democratic in something like the west, and god forbid even live better than them, then they will ask putin or anybody else, whatever the name will be, should we be against all the work, can we be friends as ukrainians, our sisters or brothers? we are a huge nation, by the way, almost half of the russian population. 12 countries have now told their citizens to get out of ukraine because of the level of troops, 130,000 on the border, and it's notjust that, it's the hardware and the infrastructure around that, which indicates they are now in a position to attack any moment — and there have been some suggestions that an invasion could come or an air assault on wednesday, what is your sense of that? some people are scared, you know, people are reading the 16th is the day, and people are scared, people have to understand how they survive this time,

they are buying nonperishable food and checking where is the next bomb shelter. at the same time, more ukrainians are getting ready to fight, and we have reserves of almost two million people signed in for reserves, we have people for the territorial defence, normal folks who have taken their hunting rifles and will guard their cities, their villagers, so the whole nation is getting, unfortunately, prepared for the war. the problem is that many are leaving the nation, the people are leaving, foreigners are leaving, so this all creates some sort of panic which is not helping us. maybe putin wants exactly this, so we panic to the level where we cannot function as a state, and he will tell you, he was not actually...no incursion on his side, he never shot ukrainian soldiers. they crippled and toppled down themselves. joining me now is andrey kortunov — director general of the russian international affairs council, a diplomatic think tank that aims to integrate russia into the global community through peaceful means.

thank you very much forjoining us. how likely is it that russia is going to amount to some sort of incursion into the uk and us seem to be convinced they will? i incursion into the uk and us seem to be convinced they will?— be convinced they will? i might be missin: be convinced they will? i might be missing something _ be convinced they will? i might be missing something here, - be convinced they will? i might be missing something here, i - be convinced they will? i might be missing something here, i think. be convinced they will? i might be. missing something here, i think it's a high probability, i don't think russia has a lot to gain if it takes such military operation clearly it has a lot to lose, i assume president putin is a national politician and therefore he will think twice before doing anything like that. it does not mean that a war cannot happen, it i think it could happen because of an inadvertent escalation, but doesn't is a plan to occupy ukraine or start a massive military action in ukraine. this is not what mr putin

is usually doing when it gets down to military actions abroad. whig. to military actions abroad. why, then, to military actions abroad. why, then. are _ to military actions abroad. why, then. are we — to military actions abroad. why, then, are we seeing _ to military actions abroad. why, then, are we seeing 130,000 i to military actions abroad. why, then, are we seeing 130,000 russian troops around the edges of ukraine? is it nothing more, then, then a show of strength for his audience back home?— show of strength for his audience back home? ., ~ ., , ,., back home? no, i think he has some secific back home? no, i think he has some specific goals — back home? no, i think he has some specific goals he _ back home? no, i think he has some specific goals he wants _ back home? no, i think he has some specific goals he wants to _ back home? no, i think he has some specific goals he wants to achieve. i specific goals he wants to achieve. maybe in the kremlin they are concerned about ukraine being tempted to use military means in order to change the situation in the east to the benefits of kyiv, maybe the idea is to get more attention from the west to really listen to russia's complaints, to what putin described as a military cultivation of ukrainian territory by select nato members, but definitely the

calls were heard by the west, and visitors coming to moscow to discuss though it is president putin. imilli though it is president putin. will come back _ though it is president putin. will come back to — though it is president putin. will come back to the idea of nato expansion in the moment, but how helpful are these various phone calls and diplomacy with so many players trying to be heard in the melee? mi; players trying to be heard in the melee? y . ., , players trying to be heard in the melee? g ., ~ , ., , melee? my take is that even if this conversation _ melee? my take is that even if this conversation does _ melee? my take is that even if this conversation does not _ melee? my take is that even if this conversation does not generate - conversation does not generate practical results, they are still helpful, because the russian side continues to maintain that it has no aspirations towards ukraine, and i think that mike create additional guarantees that war will not take place. guarantees that war will not take lace. ., , ., , , place. you written the perhaps the concerns that _ place. you written the perhaps the concerns that president _ place. you written the perhaps the concerns that president putin - place. you written the perhaps the i concerns that president putin claims to have over nato expanding to

include ukraine, which doesn't even appear to be on the horizon, could be sorted out if there were a new treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. how much political will is there to update the treaty? it will be a complicated task. it is difficult to start with, it is very difficult to start with, it is very difficult to start with, it is very difficult to amend the treaty back in 1999, and notjust the lack of political trust, in 1999, and notjust the lack of politicaltrust, but in 1999, and notjust the lack of political trust, but also a lot of technical developments in military hardware, in 1919 no one heard about the rungs, but now we cannot have another treaty without taking the drones into account, so it will be a formidable task, but with the degree of political will i think these tasks can still be met.- of political will i think these tasks can still be met. how is this story being _ tasks can still be met. how is this story being reported, _ tasks can still be met. how is this story being reported, what - tasks can still be met. how is this story being reported, what is - tasks can still be met. how is this story being reported, what is the| story being reported, what is the russian public�*s review on this and

what appetite they have for military action, which putin will be only too keen to placate any concerns. mi; keen to placate any concerns. my take is keen to placate any concerns. ij�*i take is that keen to placate any concerns. m take is that today keen to placate any concerns. m: take is that today russians keen to placate any concerns. m; take is that today russians are much more concerned about domestic social and economic problems rather than anything abroad, and frankly i think that the public in russia is tired of ukraine, they would like to have better relations with ukraine. i think most russians have finally come to understand that ukraine is a different country with a different culture, somewhat different lyrical trajectory, and that has to be respected. it is not what it was eight years ago during the crimea events, because there was a perception that most of the population crimea would like to reunite with russia. i don't think that today there is a perception that most of ukrainians would welcome the russian army. thank you

ve much welcome the russian army. thank you very much for— welcome the russian army. thank you very much for your _ welcome the russian army. thank you very much for your time _ welcome the russian army. thank you very much for your time and _ welcome the russian army. thank you very much for your time and your- very much for your time and your insight. the headlines on bbc news: a russian invasion of ukraine is �*highly likely�*. that's the assessment of the defence secretary ben wallace — comparing some western diplomatic efforts to the appeasement of nazi germany. thirteen people are injured after a mezzanine floor collapses at a pub in east london. early results shows that people in switzerland have voted in favour of tightening the country's tobacco laws by banning virtually all advertising of tobacco products. sport and a full round up from the bbc sport centre. england wouldn't expect to lose to italy — in fact, they never have — but if that changes in rome this afternoon they'd surely be out of the six nations reckoning. eddiejones made significant changes to the side that

lost to scotland last weekend. marcus smith with a try in the tenth minute. the stages, just 15 minutes gone in rome so far. the weather in rome is considerably better than it was in london, where saracens dealt with the wind and rain a little better to beat defending premiership champions harlequins. sean maitland scored one of two tries for sarries in the first half, but the scores were level at half—time, only for the home side to pull away through three penalties after the break from alex lozowski to seal a 19—10 win and a league double over their london rivals. liverpool are hoping to reduce manchester city's 12 point lead in the premier league. they are doing so as things stand. three of the four games for a tpm kick—off. it is for pino that has the goal for them. newcastle lead,

hoping to make it three wins in a row. leicesteragainst hoping to make it three wins in a row. leicester against west ham is the fourth 30 kick—off in the premier league this afternoon. caroline weir has a habit of doing what she did again in the wsl manchester derby this afternoon. her superb goal was the difference between her team city and united. as jo currie reports. not even the manchester rain could dampen this highly anticipated derby clash. manchester city is threatened first, lauren hempel unable to control the ball in front of an open goal. the highlight of an otherwise underwhelming first hand. after the break, just park tried to start the match into to life only to be denied by the woodwork. manchester united's chances were few and far between. the match looked like it was heading

for an uninspiring drawer until this. caroline weir known as a second—half substitute with a moment of magic. second-half substitute with a moment of manic. ., ., ~ ., ., , of magic. caroline weir and as manchester — of magic. caroline weir and as manchester united _ of magic. caroline weir and as manchester united with - of magic. caroline weir and as . manchester united with moments of magic. caroline weir and as - manchester united with moments of sheer brilliance. abs, manchester united with moments of sheer brilliance.— sheer brilliance. a little look up, and then the _ sheer brilliance. a little look up, and then the audacious - sheer brilliance. a little look up, and then the audacious chip. - sheer brilliance. a little look up, and then the audacious chip. in | and then the audacious chip. in front of a stadium record crowd, city ahead and ten minutes to hang on. with united unable to mount a response, the home side saw out the win. bragging rights in the win took bag, city edging closer to the top of the table in the champions league spot. elsewhere, aston villa won 2—0 away at everton. the other three are into the second half. easy wins on the cards for the likes of brighton and hove albion, and leicester city have commanding leads in the game so far

hibernian beat arbroath 3—1 to become the sixth premiership side into the scottish cup quarter—finals. hibs came from 1 nil down to beat the championship leaders with chris mueller the scoring the third. the win ends their five game wait for a victory. to the winter olympics, where heavy snow in beijing has caused havoc to the ski schedule with a number of events delayed or cancelled on day 9. it means team gb�*s katie summerhayes and kirsty muir will go tomorrow in the ski slopestyle qualification instead. but things haven't been affected inside the ice cube, where it's been a good day so far for britian's curlers. eve muirhead and her rink beat denmark and are now third in the table having won three of theirfive round robin matches. the top four go through to the semifinals. and things are going even betterfor the men. bruce mouat and his side made light work of the danes as they won 8—2. earlier, they beat hosts china 7—6. they now sit second in the table having won all but one of their 5 matches.

out of live sport going on, more in the next hour. at least 13 people have been injured after a floor collapsed at a pub in east london. firefighters rescued seven people who became trapped in the bar in hackney. nickjohnson reports it was just before five o'clock yesterday afternoon when the floor gave way at the two more years bar in hackney wick. firefighters rescued seven people who were trapped, and paramedics said three people were seriously hurt. another ten had minor injuries. suddenly there was this earthquake like rumble, and before we know it, suddenly the floor gave way, and we all started to sink, and quite fast. describing the rescue, the london fire brigade said crews used a ladder to make a bridge between the floor and the internal staircase to get people safely out of the building. a statement on two more years' instagram account said the venue would remain closed for now,

and added, our thoughts are with everyone that's been affected. the local mp rushanara ali also took to social media to say she was very concerned about the collapse. a spokesperson for the metropolitan police says it has not launched an investigation into the incident. it says the local authority is looking at how this pub floor gave way on a busy saturday afternoon. two nhs hospital trusts are working with police after a doctor from the west midlands was arrested on suspicion of sexual assault. the sunday times reports that staffordshire police are working with the nhs on a major incident review of the doctor's work at hospitals across the midlands. the force says the 34—year—old man was arrested in december and released on bail. the public inquiry into the wrongful convictions of post office branch managers begins tomorrow. more than 700 sub—postmasters were given criminal convictions and some were jailed after being wrongly accused of stealing from their own tills when a computer software

issue was responsible. ahead of the inquiry the sub—postmaster thought to have been given the longest prison sentence, has been talking to our business correspondent colletta smith. harjinder butoy ran a post office with his wife in nottinghamshire, but he's spent the last 1a years fighting to clear his name. charged with stealing £208,000, he was sentenced to three years and three months in prison for a crime he didn't commit. they found me guilty on ten counts out of the 11. that's when everything just... like you're hearing voices in the background while the charges are being read. it was horrible. were your family there in court? sorry... yeah. i can still hear it from this day, that cell door slamming behind me. with three children under ten, her husband sent to prison,

her own news agency business in ruins, balbinder has suffered just as much. it destroyed me. me, the kids. i had nobody. for years, the butoys have been told by the post office that there wasn't a problem with the accounting system. but there was. a big problem. and that's what this public inquiry is supposed to get to the bottom of. who in the post office knew? and why did they continue to blame and prosecute sub—postmasters? the company who sold the software to the post office was fujitsu. jez thompson used to work for them, training sub—postmasters on the new computer system as it was rolled out nationwide. when we did start to get towards, you know, the real meat end of the training, when we were teaching them how to do the closing of accounts at the end of the month, then we did find and discover a few faults.

we could never reckon up everything to be exact. more often than not, it was wrong, yeah. and those reports were always passed up through our managers to fujitsu services and i would imagine to the post office, saying there is still a fault on the live system. the post office have again said they are sorry and that their first priority is providing full, fair and final compensation, but that's not what harjinder wants. i want somebody on the other side to be charged and jailed like i was. they are the ones who signed the final paperwork off. they are the ones who knew if there were any faults on the system or not. you were fighting this for 1h years. does it still feel like you are fighting this?— yeah, it does to me. harjinder butoy ending that report there by colletta smith. the prime minister of pakistan, imran khan, has warned that lynchings will be dealt with the full severity of the law after a man accused of blasphemy was beaten to death.

the man was killed on saturday after accusations of desecrating the islamic holy book quran. it comes two months after another incident in which a sri lankan man accused of blasphemy was killed in pakistan, sparking protests. 0ur south asia editor, anbarasan ethirajan, told me more about the latest incident. there were hundreds of people, according to local media reports, in the district, and there was an announcement that one particular individual that desecrated the holy koran, he set fire to some pages, that was the accusation, and his family said that he was having mental health issues, and despite, he was pleading innocence, this group was trying to target, and the local police arrived and they were trying to arrest, because desecrating the koran or any insult to islam is a crime in pakistan, so they arrested him, and because the crowd was really calling for his release

and they wanted to take away, and local media reported, the crowd simply snatched him by force from the police and beat him to death with stones, that is why the pakistani officials and now calling for an inquiry to find out whether there was any dereliction of duty by the local police officers. there have been other instances of people being killed over comments that are regarded by some as blasphemous in pakistan. why is this proving such a challenge to get on top of the authorities? it is a very sensitive issue in the muslim dominated pakistan. for a number of years, people have been killed, lynched to death by mobs, on accusations of insulting islam, but the various governments have been hesitant to attach it issue, because even though there have been lost in the british colonial period about insulting religion, these laws were strengthened during the regime when

the islamisation happen, when the death penalty was also included in this blasphemy law, and that triggered a lot of violent incidences, because people were using this to settle personal scores, and also sects which were not considered part of the mainstream muslim, they were targeted, and the religious parties, they hold a considerable amount of influence, they are stoutly opposed to removing the death penalty or reforming the blasphemy law, and that's why the pakistan government, despite promising to have a look at these lows, to review the laws, they were not able to do it. voters in switzerland have backed new legislation banning tobacco advertising anywhere young people might see it — in effect, a complete ban. with all votes counted, 56% of those voting said yes to the ban and more than half

of switzerland's 26 cantons. a majority in both was needed for the ban to become law. the decision brings switzerland into line with the rest of europe. imogen faulkes reports from bern. the draft legislation says is promotion, advertising of tobacco, anywhere young people might see it, it is very hard to think of a place where they might not have access to it, so i think it's effectively a band, and a victory for doctors associations, teachers associations, parents and so on, who campaigned hard for this, despite intense lobbying by the industry, the big tobacco companies have their headquarters in switzerland, and the government, who said, look, this legislation goes too far, tobacco remains a legal product, you cannot ban all promotion of it. this time, some commentators

are already writing their analysis for tomorrow morning, tobacco might have a lobby among business, among politicians, it has not got a lobby among the people, and under switzerland's system of direct democracy, it is the people who decide. now it's time for a look at the weather with tomasz. hello. a thoroughly wet day out there is forecast for most parts of the country, and, as far as the week ahead is concerned, more rain on the way, and some very strong winds as well, particularly from mid week onwards. the low pressure bringing us the bad weather right now is slowly moving out into the north sea. however, it is still going to rain across the south and south—east through the night, also showers across parts of wales, but many of us in the north will have clear spells overnight, here temperatures will dip to around 3—4 in biggertowns, then tomorrow a northerly wind, pretty cold, perhaps a wintriness

across the scottish hills, and it really will feel quite nippy