this is bbc news, i'm lukwesa burak. the top stories: ukraine's president says international rules protecting countries from attack are no longer working, amid fears of a russian invasion. translation: the security architecture of our world i is brittle, it is obsolete. the rules that have been agreed upon by the world dozens of years ago are no longer working. they are neither catching up with the new threats nor being effective in overcoming them. and as reports emerge of shelling in eastern ukraine, the british prime minister issues a new warning about the consquences of any russian invasion. if ukraine is invaded, and if ukraine is overwhelmed, we will witness the destruction of a democratic state, a country that has been

free for a generation, with a proud history of elections. counting the cost of storm eunice — 12 people die across europe, including three in the uk, where more than 155,000 homes are still without power. and we'll be taking an in—depth look at the papers with our reviewers — political commentator jo phillips, and nigel nelson, political editor of the people and sunday mirror. good evening. the prime minister has warned that any russian invasion of ukraine would see the destruction of a democratic state. borisjohnson said that nato —

a group of 30 nations in a military alliance — were united at "a moment of extreme danger". the ukrainian president has said his country is determined to protect itself from russia — with or without the support of western allies. 0rysia lutsevych is a research fellow and manager of the ukraine forum in the russia and eurasia programme at the think—tank chatham house. she's been explainig what the so—called "false flag" strategy is, and how russia is using it. that is the strategy that we have seen in ukraine in 2014, before the annexation of crimea, where russia was saying that there is a genocide of russian speakers and that there is an attack on those populations. we have seen false footages of children being molested. that was a pretext for then the russian duma to give consent to the russian president to use force in ukraine.

this reminds me very much what was happening. to use proxy formations, these militant formations that russia arms in order to stage an invasion further into ukrainian territory by blaming ukraine of the provocation. and we have seen a similar story in 2008 with the georgian war, so this very much looks like a substantial escalation with the possible military operation. when you talk about the russian duma, you're talking about the request to president putin to recognize the donetsk and luhansk republics. do you think, though, that the us revealing their hands, so to speak, in saying, "we know what you're up to," is that working to their favor? do you mean to the russian favour? to the us. well, i think the us

is right to expose the intelligence information that they have because every plan of the adversary that is public is, to a certain degree, disrupted. of course, there was a problem with pinpointing the exact date of the invasion. i think we are here in the mid—term of quite heightened escalations, that russia will squeeze ukraine from both sides, from the black sea, from the east, from the north in belarus, and we will see the situation evolving throughout the period of time of february and april. what are russia's aims around ukraine? because we heard the president earlier talking about appeasement. he is not happy with that. if russia were to walk away, what would be the minimum that they would be happy with? i think we are past the stage where russia will be satisfied with the minimum. there is a certain feeling in the kremlin that they can compel both ukraine and united states and nato allies to have their way. otherwise, they use the threat of military invasion to change

the situation and to alter the positions at the negotiating table. that is why i think what putin wants within ukraine, something that is not acceptable to ukrainian president and ukrainian populations, is ukraine being a gray no—man�*s—land where controls policy making and keeps ukraine hostage, arrested on its way to economic development, to democracy, to having a security for its populations. and then, more broadly, russia wants to have us out of europe. russia wants to decouple that security umbrella that emerged after the second world war, where the us provides quite a lot of security within nato on the european continent. just going back to the donbas issue. we mentioned the duma request about recognising it formally. i mean, that's been going on...

that is de facto, isn't it? since 2014 that has been recognised. this upping of conflict within the donbas region, is that likely to be the key factor that tips it over into conflict, full—blown conflict? i mean, i think it could be, but as i said, it's not just the donbas front that we should be watching because we see a buildup both from the south and the north of belarus. but donbas is here de facto already joined up with russia because russia issued quite a lot of russian passports. its economy is being integrated. ukrainian assets of companies were seized. the ruble is in operation and we see local populations, you know, in a way held in a manipulative way because for them, the only way to go is to save themselves in russia.

that was 0rysia lutsevych. staying with events in munich — the bbc�*s chief international correspondent, lyse doucet, spoke to us senator and republican, lindsey graham who was at the conference. lindsey graham, you heard president biden last night saying that he was pretty confident that president putin had made the decision to invade ukraine. do you agree? yeah, i think president biden�*s assessment is pretty much spot on. and the question is why would putin do such a thing? he believes it would make him stronger. it dismembers a democracy — ukraine on his border — reconstructs a little bit the old soviet union, but he believes it makes him stronger. i think it will make him weaker. but the biggest mistake we've made as a western world is not to tell putin in writing, "if you do this, here's what comes your way in the energy sector. all of your oligarch buddies are going to lose their ill—gotten gains. we're going to take the yachts and, you know, the lavish apartments we're going to come after your oil

and gas economy". the biggest mistake we've made is not to give putin clarity, because the lack of clarity in his world means that you're weak. but hasn't that been rectified? we're hearing from inside the munich security conference of robust sanctions, including in the energy sector by all members of nato. well, president zelensky said today, and it's probably the most consequential speech i've ever heard at munich, the president of ukraine, he says the lack of writing it down now makes putin believe it's not going to happen later. and if you really believe an invasion is anytime soon now, well, why wouldn't you tell putin and ukraine what's going to come putin's way and the help coming ukraine's way? we made a mistake here. so i can't rectify that mistake in the next 48 hours, but i do believe that republicans and democrats are coming away from this conference with a determination to crush the ruble, to shut down nord stream 2, and to punish the oil and gas sector.

the president of ukraine made a great point — in 1994 after the fall of the soviet union, ukraine had the third largest nuclear weapons inventory in the world. they gave up all their nukes with a promise by russia, the united states and, i think, great britain that their sovereignty would be honored. and zelensky said something that was pretty moving — "is article five of nato — an attack on one is an attack on all — any better than the budapest agreement?" so we need to get this right because china is watching and iran is watching.

borisjohnson warns we could be on the verge of the biggest conflict in europe since the second world war... gunfire since the second world war... this is the east of ukraine — the country's president says it won't be provoked into war. and in an exclusive interview with the bbc, the prime minister talks of the lives that will be lost if russia attacks ukraine... people need to understand the sheer cost in human life that that could entail, not just ukrainians but russians, too. 100 miles from ukraine's border, russia and belarus take part in huge military exercises. we'll bring you the latest. also tonight... hundreds of thousands of homes

are still without power, and train services remain severely disrupted after the biggest storm to hit the uk in decades. and great britain's first medal at the winter olympics — it's silver for the men's curling team — as theyjust miss out on gold. good evening. in an exclusive interview with bbc news, the prime minister has warned that a russian invasion of ukraine would be the biggest conflict in europe since the second world war. earlier, borisjohnson told a security conference of world leaders in munich that the military alliance nato, a group of 30 nations, was united at "a moment of extreme danger".

meanwhile, ukraine's president zelensky has said his country is determined to protect itself from russia with or without the support of western allies. paul adams has the latest from kyiv. no need to panic yet. a country already at war for eight years still somehow taking this crisis in its stride. i am not scared but my friends, some of them are nervous a little, but i don't think that we will have a war. gunfire but in the east, the situation is increasingly volatile. ukraine's interior minister and visiting journalists forced to flee when their convoy came under shell fire, close to areas controlled by pro—russia separatists. the separatists are evacuating their civilians across the border to russia, arguing, without evidence, that ukraine is about to attack.

temporary housing being set up to receive women, children and the elderly. men of fighting age being told to stay back. translation: my husband is a reserve officer. - the men were warned to stay where they were and children over 18 years old are not allowed out so that everyone is in place. in munich, a conference dominated by russia's challenge to european security. borisjohnson warning that ukraine cannot be abandoned. ..and if ukraine is overwhelmed, we will witness the destruction of a democratic state, a country that has been free for a generation with a proud history of elections. but ukraine's president was there, too, undiplomatically accusing the west of allowing all this to happen. translation: for eight years, ukraine has been a shield. - for eight years ukraine has been holding back one of the greatest

armies in the world which stands along our borders, not the borders of the european union. the government here says that russia, through its proxies in the east, is trying to goad ukraine into taking action, to give moscow an excuse to intervene. the government says it won't be provoked, but these are very dangerous times, and any of the sparks now flying could ignite a much wider conflict. pauladams, bbc news, kyiv. in ukraine itself, tensions continue to rise. ukraine's russian—backed breakaway eastern territories have ordered military mobilisations amid a deadly escalation in fighting. meanwhile, north of ukraine, russia and belarus are carrying out huge military drills, while still insisting there's no plan to attack ukraine. 0ur correspondent steve rosenberg is in belarus — and a warning this report contains flash photography.

definition of muscle flexing? this. gunfire 100 miles from ukraine's border, russia and belarus are holding joint exercises on an unprecedented scale. nato says it's the biggest deployment of russian troops in belarus since the cold war. at least 10,000 russian soldiers within easy reach of ukraine. but both moscow and minsk deny they are threatening anyone. translation: our country isn't | helping russia to capture ukraine. and russia doesn't want to capture ukraine. we don't need war in belarus or in russia. we've had enough war. we still remember world war ii. russia insists that these exercises are purely defensive.

ukraine says this is psychological pressure, at the very least, and at most, well, there is concern in kyiv and in the west that if there is a full—scale attack on ukraine then russian troops in belarus could be part of that. america seems to think so... for months now, russia has been building up its military forces in and around ukraine. including in belarus. they're uncoiling and are now poised to strike. meanwhile, in moscow... "you may begin," vladimir putin told army chiefs, and they began... the president oversaw drills by russia's strategic nuclearforces, showing off his country's state—of—the—art missiles.

a message, perhaps, to russia's rivals, and not a subtle one, that for now, at least, the kremlin is in no mood to compromise. steve rosenberg, bbc news, minsk. in a moment we'll talk to our chief international correspondent — who's been following events in munich. but first, in a bbc interview borisjohnson has warned of the possible extent of any future conflict. i'm afraid to say that the plan that we're seeing is for something that could be the biggest war in europe since 1945, just in terms of sheer scale. i think people need to understand the sheer cost in human life that that could entail, notjust ukrainians, but russians, and young russians. and that was the point i was trying to make earlier on in my speech today. 0ur chief international correspondent lyse doucet is in munich, where world

leaders met today. do they think it's more likely than not that russia is going to attack ukraine? that is the question of the hour, the question of our time, and a question notjust being asked by the question of our time, and a question notjust being asked question not “ust being asked by us, but the question notjust being asked by us, but the jarring _ question notjust being asked by us, but the jarring reality _ question notjust being asked by us, but the jarring reality of _ question notjust being asked by us, but the jarring reality of the - but the jarring reality of the moment is that that question has been asked around the clock for the last 48 hours and even before by defence ministers, foreign ministers, prime ministers and presidents, countries commanding some of the world's most powerful armies. would president putin do something that seems so illogical and so out of keeping with our times, notjust to invade a neighbouring country, even to try to take over its capital? the world leaders here are looking at the same intelligence, real—time intelligence, real—time intelligence, but it is onlyjoe biden who has come out and said that

he is convinced that president putin has decided to invade, but it is not the fact that everyone thinks this and even a borisjohnson pulled away from his comments and said there is still a chance that president putin would pull back from the brink, because maybe people are hoping against hope. maybe they do believe president putin hasn't made up his mind because in reality, the only person who can answer your question tonight is president putin himself. lyse doucet, many thanks. and you can watch the full interview with the prime minister on sunday morning with sophie raworth at 9am tomorrow morning on bbc one. 150,000 households remain without power tonight and many train services are still disrupted across the uk a day after storm eunice killed three people. insurance pay outs for the damage from the worst storm to hit the country for decades could reach £350 million

according to one estimate. there are two fresh weather warnings in place for tomorrow — one for wind for much of the country, and heavy rain in the north west of england. danny savage has more. it has been a day of assessing storm damage, right across the country. in brentwood in essex, a 400—year—old oak tree came crashing down on a family home, causing extensive damage. all of us were working from home, and about 1130 yesterday morning, probably the height of the wind speed, i would say, we just felt the house move, and that was a big gust of wind, and seconds later, the tree just crashed into the house, and we were covered in dust and just general debris, and we ran outside to see what had happened and we were confronted with what you can see behind us.

140 miles away in gloucestershire, aston on carrant near tewkesbury is just one of many places which has been without power since yesterday afternoon. the storm here didn'tjust knock over one tree. it destroyed a whole coppice, and when the bigger ones came down, they took out that electricity wire, knocking out power for everyone around here. it just went like that. this all happened in pauline's garden. very very bad. i have never seen the trees moving like they were yesterday. i shouted to my husband, "look at the trees," and i walked back into the kitchen, and said, they are going, they are going, it's gone. it was the needles on the isle of wight where a gust of 122mph was recorded yesterday, as the storm moved across the country. numerous trees were uprooted. and vehicles were blown over on the roads. passengers at preston station were typical of those trying to travel today.

it was absolutely awful, carnage. we got on at the first stop, got a seat, but it was standing for a lot of people all the way down. people lost their lives in these - winds, and because we were stood up on a train we were just grateful to get home _ wales was badly hit by the storm, too. in newport, today was about assessing damage and making things safe for the time being. the weather was still causing issues in some areas. snow fell across parts of northern england. storm eunice may have gone, but the problems caused by it are very much still with us. danny savage, bbc news. let's talk to our transport correspondent katy austin who's at paddington station in london. 24 hours on, things are nowhere near back to normal, are they? that is right. plenty of delays and cancellations around the country today because storm eunice left lots

of trees and other debris on the tracks that needed clearing and other damage that needed to be fixed and a number of train companies today were telling people, please don't travel, including south western railway and the great western railway and the great western railway and greater anglia. it looks like there could be further disruption into tomorrow with those weather warnings in place, great western railway says there will be a speed restriction across its network, and also if trains and delays and cancellations could be expected. —— also fewer trains. they say don't travel unless necessary. trains can be expected to be busy and generally the advice is still to check before you travel. katy austin, thanks forjoining us. a french modelling agent, who was a close associate of paedophilejeffrey epstein, has been found dead in his prison cell in paris. 76—year—old jean—luc brunel was facing rape, sexual assault

and sexual harassment charges, and had been in custody since trying to flee to senegal back in december 2020. time for the sport now. here'sjohn watson at the bbc sport centre. good evening. 0n the penultimate day of the winter olympics in beijing, great britain won their first medal of the games. they had to settle for silver in the men's curling after a 5—4 defeat to sweden. the women's team contest their gold medal match in the early hours of tomorrow morning againstjapan. laura scott reports. bittersweet smiles, knowing only too well what could have been. if sweden hadn't been on fire, on the ice. this would be a fabulous shot if it comes off. this had been billed as a clash of curling's titans. this had been billed as a clash on to that one, onto the other one, oh, and he's done it! but, anything britain could do, sweden could do better. he has done well, very well. splitting these familiar rivals was, at points, too close to call. time to bring in

the curling compass. a shot for great britain, it was close. but whether in the smash—up job... it is like the demolition derby when he comes to play. ..or the cagey game of chess, the swedes just had the edge. after nearly three hours of tactics and tension... it's got to hit that red. ..the red stone in the house brought the gold medal home for sweden. sweden have won the gold medal. heartbreak for the british team after the narrowest of defeats. not the golden moment they so badly wanted, but once the obvious disappointment subsides, this team will celebrate a silver medal that finally put team gb on the medal table on the penultimate day of these games. that's pretty special for all of just to know that team gb are leaving with some sort of medal. and hopefully the girls can go one better than us, tomorrow. and if there was a medal

for crash of the day, british skier gus kenworthy would surely be a contender. how did he walk away from this? laura scott, bbc news, beijing. to the premier league title race now. match of the day and sportscene follow this programme, so don't listen if you're waiting for the results, because here they come... harry kane scored two goals for tottenham, his second a 95th minute winner in a 3—2 victory over the league leaders manchester city, who saw their lead at the top reduced to six points after second—placed liverpool beat norwich earlier in the day. stjohnstone have moved off the bottom of the scottish premiership after beating hearts. they scored in the first minute of their 2—1 win. hibernian are up to fourth after beating ross county. rangers and celtic both play tomorrow. and a reminder you can follow the big showdown in british boxing between kell brook and amir khan tonight, the two former world champions due out in the ring in manchester shortly, via the bbc sport website.

that's all from me. and remember you can see the prime minister on bbc one tomorow at 9am on "sunday morning." have a good evening. hello, sunday i'm afraid it's going to be a windy day right across the uk again. we have a weather system sending southwards across woods. as it approaches, the wind strengthens to end get on sunday. says betty windy on sunday overnight and through much of monday before easing. the potential again for a strong disruptive gusts of wind, there are some met office weather warnings. after a mild start, it will be turning colder from the north later in the day. a lot of

cloud and outbreaks of lane to begin the day. focused on northwest england —— the rain to begin the day. it will take it well before the rain clears away from northern ireland and southern scotland. a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain in wales and england but then you see this narrow band of quite intensive and torrential rain firms and move southwards as the day goes on. with particularly squally winds along it. wind gusts 48 and 50 mph quite widely. more around the western and southern coast —— 40—50 miles per. at the coast, could be in excess of 60 mph. temperatures turning colder behind in the area of rain. the show that follow will be increasingly wintry. even to lower levels. the winds get stronger still at this stage around the coast of scotland, northern ireland and the irish sea. maybe to 70 mph in places. a

potential disruption out of those going into monday morning. the low pressure is pulling away on monday, still a squeeze on the isobars. still batches of showers moving southwards, easing later. some sunny what spells in between but it remains very windy out there. still gusting widely 50—60 mph, but a western and southern areas. those winds will gradually ease later in the day. not until we have dealt with some more potentially disruptive gusts out there. temperatures will be close to average, if not a little bit above for the time of year. it is a bit of a lull on monday night after that it stays unsettled with further spells of rain and wind, though perhaps not as windy as it has been at the moment. friday is looking like a fine day, but it doesn't look like it will last.