the prime minister says plans for an invasion of ukraine may have already begun. i'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is full something that could he really the biggest war in europe since 1945, just in terms of sheer scale. it's as russia and belarus take part in huge military exercises, just 160 kilometres from ukraine's border. the legal requirement to self—isolate after catching covid in england is expected to be dropped from next week. the shadow health secretary says he's worried that the prime minister isn't following the science. this seems very premature. it seems like boris johnson is keen to declare victory before the war is over in the hope he gets some headlines about victory day on covid instead of police officers ask questions about actions at number 10. as the clean up from storm eunice continues, another storm is named — franklin is expected to bring more strong winds and heavy

rain today and tomorrow, particularly in northern ireland. great britain finally gets the gold on the last day of the winter olympics. eve muirhead's women's curlers beat japan 10—3 in beijing, at her fourth games. it's been hard work. there have been ups, there's been downs. when you get this round your neck at the end, it's definitely worth it. now on bbc news, zeinab badawi and a panel of experts in nairobi, kenya, take questions concerning recent successive coups in africa. hello and welcome to global questions, with me zeinab badawi, in nairobi. kenya is in a tough neighbourhood. it's surrounded by countries that are mired in conflict. somalia has long battled extremist insurgents. south sudan has known little piece. and ethiopia is in the throes of what many describe as a civil war. plus, there have been several

military takeovers in the past year, which have prompted fears that the army is making a comeback in african politics. applause. you join us in central nairobi, where a local audience here will be putting their questions about conflict and army coups in africa. so, let me introduce my panel to you straightaway. adan keynan, senior mp from the ruling coalition here in kenya, and he is a member of the national assembly's defence and foreign relations committee. ethiopian—born gabriel negatu, who has held many senior official positions in africa and is currently managing director at invest afrique.

and murithi mutiga is africa programme director at the conflict resolution, the icg, that's the international crisis group. that's our panel, welcome to you all, give them a round of applause. applause. and remember, you too can join the conversation. it's #bbcglobal0uestions. now, before we take our first question from our audience, i thought it would be a good idea to just give you a brief overview of the topic in hand, just to provide you with a bit of background about army coups and conflict in africa. so let's just watch this short film. what should happen when a coup is welcomed by the people? there was jubilation on the streets of conakry, the capital of guinea, six months ago, when the army ousted president alpha conde. there had been anger when he changed the rules to run for a third term, in what many described as a constitutional coup. the military in mali, and then more recently in burkina faso, both said they had no choice

but to take over, since the government had failed to bring security in the face of extremist attacks. in february, there was a failed coup attempt in guinea—bissau, which president embalo blamed on the drug traffickers and their supporters that have turned the country into a narco state. the government of niger said it had stopped a coup last year, just before the new president was sworn in. west africa has been the coup belt of the continent this past year or so. but further east, there has been one military takeover, and a major conflict that has been likened to a civil war. in october, the head of the sudanese army, generalal—burhan, moved against his civilian allies and sacked them from the joint provisional government, leading to widespread condemnation and continuing civilian protests, in which dozens have been killed. in ethiopia, the prime minister abiy ahmed has been fighting rebels,

mostly in the northern tigray province, in a conflict in which 100,000 are believed to have died, with both sides blamed for atrocities. i hope that has given you a little bit of context of our discussions, right? good. ok, let's get down to ourfirst question and it is from dido, where are you? your question, please. my question is, is there a good coup or bad coup, and if there are, - what makes it good or bad? thank you. oh, my. that's a big question to kick off with. murithi mutiga from icg, you start. say what we are seeing in west africa, it is something more complex. it is basically a cry for help. coups borne out of desperation. you know, in many parts of the sahel, these are people that were never particularly wealthy, were not particularly engaged in the democratic process, but could at least live lives

of relative normality. lives at peace, where they could attend weddings, they could use public transport, they could go to funerals, all that has been upended. we have seen at least a decade of banditry, jihady violence, and so the people have cried out to men in arms. so are you going on the record, then, murithi, and saying there is such a thing as a coup? there may not be a good... there certainly are bad coups, i would say coups are dangerous. so, gabriel, there is a kind of coup—ometer as it were, with varying degrees of how bad a coup is or how good it is. do you agree? no, i... i don't believe there is such a thing as a good coup. a coup d'etat is a manifestation of the lack of a constitutional provision to address problems in a country.

if you had a constitution that allowed, that had a safety valve, if you would, that allowed grievances to be settled around the table, then that would remove the need for a coup, you have actually lived through three coups yourself. yes, i have. have you lived through any, murithi? no, i was born... maybe that is... why he has got a different point of view. all right. adan keynan. your answer. yes, in africa, i cannot. recollect any good coup. because the circumstances are... one might say what happened in libya, at a certain stage, i because of where libya was, i until gadaffi was overthrown, that might have been a good coup, . because of the kind of developmental trajectory that they went through, but generally speaking, _ on the african continent, all coups have failed, - simply because of this.

what contributed is a regime change, or because of underdevelopment - or undevelopment or because of deep—rooted ethnic biases. - as a result of either colonial legacies, . colonial misadministration. generally speaking, from west africa to north africa, to all of africa, - these coups are extremely bad in the african continent. - ok, you looked at north africa. let me just give you egypt. because abdel fattah al—sisi, current president, a coup in 2013, removed a democratically—elected president. 2014, the european union for instance, said, "no, we don't recognise you." he recently was given, by president macron of france, the highest honour that the french can bestow. so people change their mind, don't they? the international community can. that, again, is the basis for the definition of- diplomatic engagement. if you look at foreign relations, i countries have different interests, and that is actually...

so, when france, the president of france is doing that, - there must have been certain salient historical relationship _ between egypt and france, and that might have had... j but, i mean, the point is people accept, don't they? they accept coup leaders, even if, at first, they reject them, if it suits them. if you delve into that, - you realise that some of these countries have supported coups in africa, for their— own selfish reasons. applause. they like what you said there. i think it was the point about the hypocrisy of the west that got you the applause. ok, let's go to our second question. it is from henry. henry. thank you very much. does the joy with which the populus welcomes coup leaders, _ who topple democratically elected i leaders, signal a disillusionmentl with african politicians' leadership |ability, and the failure of westernj democracy, as applied in africa? gabriel, let's take that and look at it as a failure of democratic governance in africa.

when you were director of the eastern region for the african development bank, you dealt with an awful lot of african leaders, so how would you answer this? i would tend to agree with his assessment, that indeed coups reflect disillusionment, disenfranchisement of citizens, in the face of their own life, in their own affairs. where i would disagree with you is, there is no such thing as a west or east, it's not a geographic issue. it is, each country has tailored democracy through its constitution, the type of democracy it seeks. there are some basic fundamental tenants of democracy and good governance, whether it is east—west, or what have you. but beyond that, it is all tailored to meet the needs of each country. so it's not so much

that it is the west, but there are some principles pushed and promoted by the west, there i think there is a critical failure, but clearly, this is a failure of democracy to deliver on its promise. adan keynan, your answer. yes, in the first place, _ some of the countries here were not prepared for democracy. democracy was outside, it was outside centred, i it was outside placed, . therefore, when it comes to the actual implementation, there are challenges, - and i think this is why right now, we're getting home—grown- democracies, which slowly feeds actually into the place _ of african democracy. hang on, are you honestly saying that africans are not ready for democracy, and electing their leaders and deciding who is in power? i will tell you this. go back to the early '90s, there are sanctions, - either from the institutions, that if you don't accept thisl particular route as part - of your governor's platform, either through constitutional changes or through this, - there are sanctions. applause. that is the reality.

so some of these countries were not l prepared for the changes that tookl place, and that is why... the expectation, the failed expectations didn't work, i and therefore the only solution was go back to military rule. i the military rule didn't i work and there is chaos. 0k. and you need to analyse somalia, you need to analyse ethiopia, - and you need to analyse both the sudans, you need to look at even egypt right now, - the entire west african region. it's because the democracy that they were asked - to implement was not home—grown. it was forced. 0k, murithi, i mean, we are seeing conflict in countries that have had democratically—held elections. you know, we saw it in somalia, we see it in mozambique. you still have conflict. democracy does not necessarily deliver stability and prosperity, does it? in africa. it's a complex issue. at the risk of sounding like a coup—monger, if you look at the recent coups, for sure, there was deep public disillusionment. in guinea, for example, with alpha conde, extending his term, jailing a lot of his opponents. in mali, with a rigged

parliamentary election, in burkina faso as i mentioned, with raging insecurity. and then in places like mozambique that are conflict—free anew you have a real gap between the centre and the peripheries. you have people out there feeling that the government doesn't represent them, that elites at the centre are corrupt and accountable, and don't really connect with the masses. you know, since 2015... what about south sudan, since you are doing a little tour of the continent? neighbouring south sudan. you have had an elected president there, salva kiir, you have still got a lot of conflict there. you have, in south sudan, what i would call a predatory elite. in fact, if you want to be rude, it is a vulture elite. it is an elite that milks all the money from oil wealth and delivers very little for the people. it is a bit of an outlier, because it's exceptionally bad, it's a very tactical elite that focuses only on consolidating power. butjust very quickly, i would say that, ultimately, democracy does deliver, even if it is in the long run. let's go to our next question, then.

and that is from caroline. caroline. my question is that, i it's actually an opinion. in the sense that, it seems that only the military has the means for effective interruption| of ineffective leadership. now, the problem is, _ after the jubilation and everything, the holders of the guns - on their part usually have no idea what to do with the masses. so what next? applause. gabriel. democracy does not begin and end with elections. that isjust the beginning. how do you make sure, over the next four or five years, there is enough accountability, enough transparency, enough engagement from civil society and everyone else, to hold these leaders accountable ? a soldier does not train to be a statesman.

maybe he knows some military strategy here and there. and to expect them to be the statesmen is perhaps not the right... you say a soldier is not meant to be a statesman, but they are often accepted as having a role in a transition. if you look at the sudan, the agreement between the civilians and the military was that there should be a coexistence in the government. and that was internationally accepted. limited to the security sector. yes. limited to bring stability, so there is a role for the army sometimes? ina shared... and sudan was truly a unique sudan experience, while hamdok dealt with... that is the former prime minister, abdalla hamdok. gave to the administration, the other side was to take care of the security. but nevertheless, murithi, what is your answer to caroline�*s point, that usually the "holders of the guns," as she says, have no idea what to do with the masses? i think what we need is a nuanced approach. it strikes me that every military leader, when they capture power, they say this is transitional.

i think they need to be held to their word, they need to, you know, a coup is less than ideal, but they need to make sure it's temporary, if they can restore security, they need to hand back to elected institutions, but again, i would call for nuance in the case of west africa and this is desperation and these are people that are probably, you know, responding to the public demand for change. i think mali gives a very good example, because it is lieutenent colonel goita there, who originally said he was handing over power and then extended that to 2025. yes, and that is one weakness. you know, power can be addictive, power is very seductive, and that is the question. the problem with military coups is that, how do you then terminate them? how do you move to the next level?

i would say that is where you have a role for regional blocs. the regional bloc in west africa is particularly effective, it has imposed sanctions on mali, for example. and so i think it calls for nuanced engagement for regional leaders to try and hold these military leaders to their word, to make sure that, you know, when they capture power, which should never happen, but in the context of a do, that it should be temporary, and that power should eventually revert to a democratic institution. caroline, do you want to come back? i think what i would say is, . whether the leadership comes in through the ballot, | or through the bullet, without a proper plan, either would fail. - and that is why, when the military comes in, they will sing, - they will dance, we are happy, i but after that, there is this daily life that needs to go on.

without a plan... it doesn't work. thank you, thank you, caroline. applause. let's go to our next question. what do you want to ask our panel? what is the role of external actors in discouraging military coups? i your answer, murithi. i wouldn't say that the coups are externally—driven. i think they are a response to frustration, in this... yeah, but can they be externally solved? that was the question. i don't think they can, really. all right, so... so the african union is wasting its time when it suspends burkina faso and mali and sudan and says we don't want to military there? they are just wasting their time? i think they are sending a very important signal, but we have seen in west africa, burkina faso, guinea and mali, they have ignored the sanctions. in fact, the west african bloc ordered an embargo on mali, guinea refused to implement it. so ultimately, i think the african union sends an important message, in terms of sending a signal that coups are not acceptable,

but they will ultimately have to be resolved domestically. gabriel. there is a role, but it has to be a nuanced role. for external partners. and for me, the guiding principle should, at a minimum, be, "do no harm." you know, don't exacerbate the situation that is already difficult. 0k? coups are largely manifestation of internal discord and what have you. now, where i think the external partners could help, the international community could, you know, economic issues are largely drivers of coups. let's help kick—start those economies. let's make sure that people are eating two meals, three meals a day, can go to school, blah blah blah. let's build the local institutions that modulate

between conflicting sides, so that you don't end up taking arms, rather than selling arms to this side and selling the anti—arms equipment to the other side and benefiting from both. applause. i mean, ijust, you know, the un secretary general antonio guterres said this year that military coups are back in africa, and he has blamed a lack of unity in the international community in their response. for not doing something about them. so clearly, he is quite sceptical. 0k, ourfinal question is from paul. paul, what is your question, please. thank you so much. my question is, what is the role of the international communityl in the ongoing conflict in ethiopia? and must the west intervene, or can ethiopia's conflict be i resolved using african - agencies and institutions? thank you. gabriel, i will come to you, because you are ethiopian—born and obviously you have got a good

sense of this, so... what is your answer? yeah, this is... it is a loaded question. what can the external partners do? again, this is very much an internal issue. through and through, make no mistake. it started as a law enforcement campaign that evolved into, now, all but a civil war. and i think what the west, or the international partners can do is assist the country to develop those agencies and capacity to again, within the constitutional framework, resolve its issues. you know? there is a constitution that does allow even up to secession. i think the only constitution in africa, perhaps, that allows a certain region to secede from the country, but through a process.

so when you have that, there is no need for this kind of conflict. i think when the tplf kicked this fight, it was in violation of their own constitution. so i think developing the capacity is one. but the externals can also help by giving countries the policy space they need to sort their own issues. to make their own mistakes. god knows mistakes will be made. no question about it. but you know, it is like saying "this is our mistakes, give us a chance to own them, before you tell us what to do and what not." 0k, let me ask adan keynan this, because kenya is a country that has a bilateral defence and security pact with ethiopia, which gives you a pretty good platform to try and stop the awful violence and killings that are going on there, so what is your answer to the question?

the defence pact between kenyan and ethiopian is historical. - historical in the sense that it - dates back to during, you know... laughter. he is our resident history teacher, isn't he? laughter. we are very impressed. it is not something that i just happened yesterday. two, because of the location, where ethiopia is right now, i ethiopia is a very important country, very important - neighbour actually to kenya, | ethiopia has over 100 million population, with many ethnic groups, kenya being a neighbour— with that defence pact, - having somalia on this side, having the sudans on this side, it is the responsibility, - cardinal responsibility actually, and the number one agenda i of kenya, to make sure i ethiopia remains peaceful. and that is why our president, on his own initiative, - on the initiative of, . as a result of decided to play peacemaker. along with the au special envoy. but what i want to say is actually,

the events in ethiopia, _ in my opinion, it's - because of two things. i think the democratisation process was just too fast, i because of the history, - that might have happened. the second thing is, _ when some of the things happened, the kind of statements that have been attributed to some - of the developed nations, was not a very good, - in my opinion, and therefore, right now, the ethiopian- conflict can be solved - through africa resolution, must be prevented by au, |get the support of the neighbours, j who understand actually that really |the external pressure and i believe| that is what is happening right now, and ultimately, pray- for the ethiopians actually, to think out—of—the—box and solve their conflict. | i so that they don't join the otheri neighbouring countries actually... applause. that is the true situation, but for now, you see... . thank you. 0ne stage, actually if you look. at even the stages of the conflict, there are changes of position - from some of the developed nations. ithat is not good for a conflict, l and i think these are things that

people are learning slowly and i hope ultimately- that the ethiopians will. solve their own problems. we are going to entrap that programme because we have heard in the last few minutes that buckingham palace has confirmed the queen has today tested positive for covid—19. the monarchy is experiencing mild, cold like symptoms we are told but expects to continue light duty that winter over the coming weeks. she will continue to receive medical attention and will follow all appropriate guidelines. that is just coming into us from buckingham palace. i will read the statement again that the queen has tested positive for covid—19, says the palace, and is experiencing mild, cold like symptoms but does expect to continue light duties at windsor over the next djs and is going to

continue to get medical attention and will follow the appropriate guidelines. let's give a better background to that. —— a bit of background. we knew prince charles, the prince of wales, had actually tested positive two days... met the queen two days before testing positive. that was a few days ago. the previous evening he and the duchess of cornwall had met the chancellor rishi sunak and others at a reception at the british museum. that was a number of days ago and a 73—year—old air to the throne had previously caught the virus in march 2020 when he reported only mild symptoms. let mejust 2020 when he reported only mild symptoms. let me just repeat the statement we have just had in from buckingham palace. the queen, 95 years old, has tested positive for

covid, is experiencing mild, cold like symptoms but does expect to be carrying out light duties in the coming week. these are some recent pictures of the queen at windsor castle. the royal household does have its own royal physicians. the queen'sdoctors will be on hand to take care of and monitor the queen. and professor sir hugh thomas is head of the medical household and physician to the queen. he would be expected to be in charge at the moment. we are being told and the palace stressing this, the symptoms at the moment are mild, just like a cold. in fact the queen will be carrying on with her duties, light duties but of course there will be concern that the queen, who is 95

years of age and has the platinum jubilee celebrations this year for her 70 years on the throne. that was 17 years on february the six she reached the extraordinary milestone of 70 years on the throne. there will be concern of course that she has contracted covid—19. the queen actually carried out her first major public engagement for more than three monthsjust the public engagement for more than three months just the other day on february the theft by saturday february the theft by saturday february the theft by saturday february the 5th, the eve of her jubilee, when she met charity workers at sandringham and cut a celebratory cake. she used a walking stick to rest on. she is understood to be triple vaccinated. she had

been on doctor's orders to rest since mid—0ctober. you may remember previous concern about her health after she cancelled a run of engagements and she did, you might recall, spend a night in hospital. that was towards the end of last year. she spent a night in hospital undergoing preliminary tests. then, if wejust fast undergoing preliminary tests. then, if we just fast forward to this month, she is believed to have spent time with prince charles, as i mentioned, on february the 8th. he hosted an investiture at windsor castle and then a few days later he tested positive for covid but he did make a very quick recovery to full health. there was concern that charles had been in proximity to the queen when he had covid. let's talk to our royal correspondent, nicholas witchell, who can join us now on the

line. let's recap for anyone who is justjoining us, what the statement is from buckingham palace we have just adding in the last for minutes. the palace has confirmed that the queen has tested positive for coronavirus. saying she experiences mild cold like symptoms and expects to continue with light duties at windsor castle. she will continue to receive medical attention according to the palace and will follow all appropriate guidelines and i understand there have been other covid outbreaks within windsor castle and the household, and presumably that would explain why she has tested positive. there were of course rumours a couple of weeks ago after the prince of wales tested positive and it was disclosed he had met her at windsor where the prince of wales had been carrying out an investiture but she clearly did not contract covid on that occasion. we

saw her a few days