you're watching bbc news. these are the headlines: a further diplomatic push to avoid war in ukraine seems to be under way, the french president says both joe biden and vladimir putin have agreed in principle to meet to discuss the situation. further clashes are taking place in the donbas region between ukrainian government forces and russian backed rebels. queen elizabeth is due to carry out light duties this week after testing positive for covid. buckingham palace says that she is experiencing mild cold like symptoms. venues came just days after the queen marked 70 years since her accession to the throne. australia has opened its borders to fully vaccinated travellers for the first time in almost two years. more than 50 international flights are due in the course of monday. the country imposed some of the world's strictest travel bands after shutting itself off in march 2020. now on bbc news,

time to dateline london. hello, and welcome to the programme which brings together british commentators with foreign correspondents, who write, blog and broadcast to audiences back home from the dateline london. 0n today's programme, we will try to puncture the propaganda of arms and the theatre of diplomacy. what lies behind the threatened conflict over ukraine? the minsk agreements, what are they? could they be a way out of the crisis? and why, for some, have they the whiff of munich about them? how is china affecting the decisions being taken, both by vladimir putin and joe biden? joining us this week, ned temko, a former moscow correspondent, who writes for the christian science monitor,

nabila ramdani, a french algerianjournalist and broadcaster, vincent ni is china affairs correspondent with the guardian. he is here in the studio with me. welcome to all of you. good to have your company today on dateline. let's begin if we may, ned, with this question of the sort of phony war stage we seem to be at at the moment with ukraine. the west appears to be playing russia at its own game in the last few weeks. propaganda strikes, some sabre rattling. mobilising troops from the united states and other parts of europe. in a sense, calling president putin's bluff. do you think he's bluffing? one of the problems is, i think the only person who knows the answer to that question is vladimir putin himself. and i think it's fairly clear that that is at least in part what this is about. and that's to say that president putin wants russia to be centre stage again in world diplomacy, he wants

the west's and washington's eyes upon moscow and the kremlin. that has self—evidently been happening to a greater extent than pretty much at any time since the collapse of the soviet union. as to whether this amassing of huge numbers of combat—ready troops does indeed mean there's an invasion afoot, the only thing that apparently is incontrovertible is that he has enough combat—ready troops to move pretty much at any moment if he so chooses. nabila, all nato members are obliged to protect one another if any of the members are attacked. ukraine is not a member. there is no obligation to defend it. is there a sense that if president putin isn't bluffing, european countries acknowledge that they really are powerless to stop him?

in very simple terms, what lies behind this potential is the encirclement of a sovereign nation by a massive military machine. russia is clearly on a war footing and this is driven by intense nationalism within the kremlin. and by plenty of putin supporters across his vast country. now, putin is an imperialist who wants to expand russia and at the moment he feels the west is conspiring against his country and the ukrainians are at the centre of this. he would argue that offensive moves are all part of the defence of his nation and specifically the russians are furious at ukraine, which is a former soviet state, wants to join nato, as this will give nato a huge strategic advantage on the border of russia.

if ukraine does become a member of nato, then ukraine will become massively stronger militarily. as you quite rightly said, the principle of collective responsibility is what effectively underpins nato and if a nato—backed ukraine is threatened by russia, that means everybody is at war and this means all 30 nato states, including the united kingdom, will be going to war on the side of the ukraine. but, as we know, this is by no means a new geopolitical crisis, but one that has remained unresolved for far too long. labour russia has already annexed to the crimean remember, russia has already annexed the crimean peninsula in ukraine, back in 2014, claiming to respond to anti—russian agitation in ukraine. there was one of the biggest land grabs in europe since world war ii.

it has led to widespread condemnation from the west and of course sanctions. since then the russians have also been stepping up their military presence in the region at the ukrainian border, in particular since last year, after fighting escalated in donbas. vincent, let me bring you in here. nabila talked about sovereignty. we have two almost conflicting arguments, that nato countries are talking about sovereignty and protecting the identity of ukraine. russia is talking about identity. as a reporter who covers china—western relationships, some of this sounds familiar — a sense of a difference between what is sovereign and what is historic identity. we have seen all these disputes in china and things related to china, but also on the korean peninsula. the north and south korean crisis is yet to be resolved. going back to what nabila

was talking about, you know, there is a potential that a war will break out, dragging in all sorts of member states into this war. there's also a diplomacy going on at the munich security conference this week. clearly, putin is not interested in diplomacy. in solving this crisis. diplomacy is arguably the most desirable approach to solving this crisis, but... at the munich security conference, sergei lavrov is not present this week. we will have to see how the crisis will move forward and what can bring all sides together at the negotiating table. which everyone hopes for. we'll talk about one diplomatic option. ned, you've served in moscow and washington. you have two presidents who you could argue are kind of cold war warriors in terms of their long careers and experience. joe biden has been knocking around foreign affairs circles in washington for half a century.

putin has been in office for more than 20 years and was a kgb agent when the soviet union was in its pomp. are they fighting an old battle here or are they genuinely trying to find new rules of engagement to coexist in the years ahead? i think it's a mix of the two. one way to begin is to add to what nabila said. that is that one issue, and that is the potential of ukrainian membership in nato, putin knows it will not happen anytime soon. it was not even on the agenda. the ukrainians would like it and nato is not going to rule it out. but it's not imminent. what this is about for putin, the part which is kind of old cold war era, is he has been quite explicit. he wants to re—establish a kind of soviet era sphere of influence in eastern europe.

you're right, biden is both instinctively atlanticist. he believes very strongly the united states and the west have to be together in answering threats. such as the one on the border of ukraine. that is whether ukraine is a full member of nato or not. what has changed is two things. 0nw, and this will bear watching in the months ahead, is this explicit move by putin, and welcomed by president xi in beijing, to seek a kind of rapprochement between moscow and beijing as a joint counterweight to america and the west. 0n the western side, something which i don't think putin quite anticipated, is that whatever the short—term gains of getting the attention of the world as a result of the troop build—up, the fact is there has been

a greater degree of western unity in response and a greater sense, particularly in nato, which was a security alliance which has kind of lost its obvious kind of mission since the end of the cold war, now very much seems to feel that it does have a mission again, i am not sure that is something that putin anticipated. no, it's hard to believe it was only a couple of years ago that donald trump was expressing the view that nato had had its day and america's interests in europe had had its day too. vincent, in terms of what ned was talking about, it is an interesting weekend to be talking about this because it is 50 years since nixon went to china to kind of divide china and russia and stick two fingers up at moscow and say, "we are buddies with china!" it's putin now in beijing, not nixon. 0r indeed biden.

is there really a common interest here and is china in a position to insulate russia if there is military conflict and the west imposes sanctions? 0n the surface, both countries are getting closer and closer. 0n the eve of the opening ceremony of the winter olympics two weeks a-o, president putin and president xi sat down together. they expressed willingness to stand shoulder to shoulder. they released a long document saying cooperation between the two countries is limitless. when it comes to actually backing russia, if russia are being sanctioned by the international community, by the west, china will also have to weigh it up very carefully. trade between russia and china last year was about $140 billion. its trade with the european union last year was four, five times higher. so china has much more to lose. in the worst—case scenario,

if russia is excluded from the us dollar dominated swift international payment system, china will also suffer because much of the trade payment settlement between the two countries are also in us dollars. so china will have to weigh this up very, very carefully. it is one thing to say something that is so nice to each other, and quite another to behave in such a way to show you are real friends. and only this week, russia was saying, "china may be our best friend but germany is our second best friend." welcoming 0laf schulz to moscow a few days ago. that takes us to the diplomatic initiatives and there are plenty of them. lots of talk about reviving the minsk agreements which brought some kind of ceasefire in eastern ukraine back in 2014. it may turn into a hot war again.

do you have much confidence in minsk as a way out of this? the short answer is no. one of the strengths of minsk when it was conceived was when it had this wonderful facility for being understood differently by both parties. that is that ukraine, which basicallyjust wanted to end the fighting, and the fighting never ended completely, but it effectively dialled down the fighting in the eastern portion of ukraine, whereas the russians stressed the part of the accord which has not been fully implemented. it basically would give special status to these two self—styled breakaway ethnically russian republics in the eastern part of the ukraine and from the ukrainian perspective, would be kind of a trojan horse in the middle of the ukrainian constitutional system. both sides have an incentive to say, "oh, yes, great idea, let's implement this." each side sees this very differently.

it's interesting. we had the french foreign minister warning of the danger that russia potentially posed to europe in a sense an echo of the fears in the 1930s about germany. that perhaps some of the enthusiasm in countries like the united states and britain, for doing deals with dictators to prevent fighting, comes at a price, but a price that is paid by smaller countries, weaker countries. i think ben wallace talked about the whiff of munich in minsk. is that a widely—held fear in continental europe? to be perfectly honest, i'm not actually sure what the foreign ministry in france was driving at. but it could certainly be said mr macron has the look

of chamberlain about him, as he scuttles between capital cities. he looked particularly weak and ineffective in that moscow meeting with mr putin, especially when that ridiculous great table was placed between the two leaders. there has certainly always been a whiff of munich around the minsk agreement, especially in terms of the crimean annexation. we must not forget that russia got away with the annexation of crimea. the french position can be described as wishy—washy. dare i say appeasing, even too pro—russian. mr macron has even suggested that ukraine becomes like finland in the cold war, strictly neutral between russia and the west. now, the ukrainians would argue they have every right to make their own foreign policy decisions and i think that, more generally, the problem with the response from nato countries in relation to the ukraine crisis overall is that most of the focus

is on putin and not on president c of ukraine and a lot more attention should on president zelensky of ukraine and a lot more attention should be paid to his approach. he has been insisting for a long time there might be a diplomatic way out of this. since december the government has been focusing on the fine points. it is not the preferred outcome for his government but a possible solution to avoid war. i think ultimately the basis for negotiation is actually flawed and many ukrainians believe fulfilling the minsk accords per se is an concession to russian military aggression. ukraine was forced to sign them during earlier russian military

manoeuvres were staring at their will in the east. the ukrainian president has floated the possibility of ukraine guaranteeing its security in ways other than ascending to nato membership, which clearly the russians will be very pleased with. i don't think that it seems very likely. vincent, it is interesting, this pressure on countries to sort of kind of see the bigger picture. some of the big powerful neighbours saying, "sign, sign." clearly putin is not hitler and he does not want to occupy, invade or change the character of western europe but he wants to control his part and his borders. some say it is the same with beijing and taiwan. we have heard voices in washington, saying that pressure needs to be put on taiwan. let's have one country, two systems and acknowledge historically it is a chinese island and it is only the actions of the last few years that means it is an independent country. how syrians is —— serious is the challenge? this is going to be very

serious, a very difficult puzzle to solve. you talked about the visit of nixon. one of the biggest achievements for that visit was the signing of a communique in which they talk about taiwan. the us acknowledge there is only one china who defines who owns china and there was ambiguity. that has not resolved. you can argue the wise approach is to kick the can down the road again. is it going to happen? i do not have an answer and i do not think anyone has the answer. in a time of great power competition, if the proposal comes from washington, i am sure beijing would reject it because beijing wouldn't like the external force to interfere. that is the principal. taiwan, even if there were some politicians who are sympathetic to the idea longer term, they would be looking at what is happening in hong kong right now and saying, "what value is there in international guarantee?" the hong kong situation is quite different. it is a part of china.

the british handed it over to china in 1997. how this is going to be solved — no—one has the answer. we will have to see how history plays out again. is this in the end the price we have to pay as western countries for deciding we will not fight actually with our own troops for ukraine or countries in that similar situation? in the end, that comes at a price and that price is, you might not like the word appeasement but you sometimes have to compromise. you can call it lots of different names. if you are not prepared to fight for something, it becomes a question of what concessions you can extract. i think that is what the united states in particular is grappling with. i think the context we have to look to is the iraq war, afghanistan. there is a great fatigue on both sides of the united states about the notion of putting large numbers of boots on the ground overseas or on nation building.

what is fascinating and i think very important about where we are now is that an unintended consequence quite possibly of what putin is doing, is to focus american minds, both republican and democratic parties and many of the allies in western europe. nabil is absolutely right. there has been a whiff of appeasement among some western european powers towards ukraine for some time but there is a divide now. with 100,000 plus troops on the border of ukraine, for instance, you have poland and hungary, which on the one hand had it in logical strains with western europe within the eu but have no doubt and have just been reminded of where the security interests lie. we do not want the clock turned back to an idea

a fascinating discussion. we have a few minutes, thank you very much. —— thank you all very much for that. you each nugget a chance to determine what we should be talking about.— talking about. there's a story that came — talking about. there's a story that came to _ talking about. there's a story that came to my _ talking about. there's a story that came to my attention, . talking about. there's a story that came to my attention, a| that came to my attention, a great — that came to my attention, a great policy story. effectively france

pulling out of mali. i have to say the withdrawal from — i have to say the withdrawal from mali with the french forces _ from mali with the french forces from the country and indeed _ forces from the country and indeed allied western nations pulling — indeed allied western nations pulling out as well as an entirely— pulling out as well as an entirely predictably thing. it fits in with the american—led withdrawal from afghanistan after what can only be described as a disastrous war which lasted two decades. obviously, the war in mali was nothing like as long but equally difficult to prosecute and effectively had french forces fighting terrorist groups while also trying to maintain peace and democracy in a hugely unstable country. as we have seen, trying to actually create a sense of security and peace using the latest military hardware simply does not work and on the contrary, it causes horrific loss of civilian lives and widespread destruction.

it needs to the indigenous civilian population growing to despise what they see as invaders and increasing radicalism and terrorism. france has regularly been accused of adopting colonial us stance effectively in countries like mali and in the wider region. having said that, macron completely rejected the idea. he has a presidential election to win in april. any admission of defeat would be out of the question. what is the story you should be focusing more on? i am trying to be at the given the context of the programme. —— trying to be more up beat. the iran nuclear talks,

everyone assume headed towards abject failure up until a few weeks ago. these have been going on forever in vienna. of course the context is that donald trump unilaterally pulled the americans out of this 2015 deal when he was president. in the last few days both the americans and iranians for the first time said that actually great progress has been made. that does not mean we get an agreement but it is the first time that seems within prospect. if it happens one of the interesting aspects is it will have happened with the support of the russians and the chinese, who despite all the geopolitical tension with the united states and the west, equally do not want iran to get a nuclear weapon, it would appear. one potential consequence is that there it is very good for iran to be able to sell more oil, which is one of the things they want out of a deal, the end of sanctions or some of them, it is also

good for the world economy and potentially good for western europe at a time when gas supplies from russia with the ukraine crisis are under threat. thank you very much. vincent, finally. in a sense another aspect of identity politics. i'm going to talk about the 18—year—old sports personality called eileen gu. she was born in san francisco to a _ she was born in san francisco to a chinese mother and american father. for many years she saw herself as a bridge between the two great powers, china and america. now, as the great power competition starts to intensify, she is caught up in the middle. her citizenship. this winter olympics, she is competing for china and has won medals for china. in america, people say she is a traitor because you now— competing for our enemy, china.

in china, there is suspicion over— in china, there is suspicion over her— in china, there is suspicion over her loyalty. whether she identifies herself as chinese or american. because she she's either eileen gu or gu eileen. depending on english or chinese. i think the reason why i picked this story, we are talking today essentially about changing world order. these are not extra matters. they will be individuals like eileen gu caught up in the middle and we should look out for stories like hers and explain this much more complex story. thank you will very much. fascinating half hour. thank you very much. thank you very much for your company. we are back next week. goodbye. hello.

sunday brought more squally winds, heavy flooding rain, and travel disruption as yet another named storm approached the uk, storm franklin. and by monday morning, some of its biggest impacts and disruption can already be felt in northern ireland. with a met office amber warning, some gusts of wind along the north coast in particular, up to around 80 mph. it's just squeezing the isobars around storm franklin, pushing very strong and gusty winds as well across many western coastal areas overnight and into the morning, so you can expect some disruption in the morning and, indeed, through a large part of the day — although the winds are going to be slowly easing. but this is where some of the gusts will be at into the morning, the strongest ones in through northern ireland, into western coastal areas but elsewhere, gusting widely 50—60 mph for a time. it's where temperatures will be first thing. now, overnight, wintry showers will be giving a covering of snow in parts of scotland, northern ireland and northern england, especially but not exclusively into the hills, and this area of mostly rain will clear its way southwards through wales and england by the end of the morning and actually, we're left with increasing sunshine, the odd shower in northern scotland, along the north sea coast, but many places

in the afternoon will be dry with sunny spells — and these are the afternoon wind gusts by about four o'clock, so notice how much they've come down — so the winds — the strongest winds are going to be easing and by the end of the afternoon, it may not feel too bad out there with temperatures in double figures. but again, that destruction we'll have after the stormy start may well continue after once those strongest winds have eased. a chilly start on monday night. cloud and patchy rain spreading east, some heavier rain, then, putting on towards scotland and northern ireland as tuesday begins with the winds picking up again and gales developing in places but, from tuesday onwards, although it will be windy at times, the winds are not expected to be as extreme and severe as they've been. we'll see this cold front, though, moving southwards on tuesday with an area of rain. a few wintry showers following on behind. and notice after initially the rain's quite heavy through parts of northern england and wales, too, it does weaken as it reaches eastern and south east england later in the day. now, behind that, we have the sunshine, the showers again turning wintry, particularly onto the hills of northern britain. these are tuesday's temperatures. now, by wednesday, there'll be

another weather front moving into northern areas. a chilly start to the south. it will be cold across all parts on thursday with wintry showers around. it looks like a fine day to friday before low pressure moves back in at the weekend.

welcome to bbc news — i'm david eades. our top stories: a diplomatic push to avoid war in ukraine — as the us and russian presidents agree to hold a summit on the deepening crisis. international visitors return to australia as the country opens up to fully vaccinated travellers for the first time in almost two years. queen elizabeth tests positive for coronavirus — buckingham palace says the 95—year—old is experiencing mild symptoms. and after 16 days of competition, the winter olympics come to a spectacular close in beijing. and the secret to running 100 miles at world record pace and beating all the men in the process.