this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour as newsday continues, straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. russia's invasion of ukraine is under way. it is an assault on the sovereignty of a european nation. the cost in blood and treasure is sure to be high. this war is a choice, vladimir putin's choice. why did he make it? and why now? my guest is leonid volkov, one of the most prominent

figures in russia's opposition movement led by the imprisoned alexei navalny. is putin waging war from a position of strength? leonid volkov in california, welcome to hardtalk. hello. good morning. yes. now, mrvolkov, we arejoining you in california because you are a political exile. you're a wanted man in russia, a leading figure in the anti—putin movement. i just wonder how you feel watching russian forces cross that border and invade ukraine.

i feel terrible. ifeel ashamed. i feel very bad because, i mean, this is something that will have terrible consequences for my country, for russia, for ukraine, clearly. and i'm afraid also for the whole world. vladimir putin isa warcriminal. we were talking about it for many years. we were trying to explain to the people also in the west that, like, he's a criminal, he has to be stopped, he has to be deterred — when he poisoned alexei navalny, when he poisoned people there in salisbury, in the uk, and when he invaded crimea in 2014. we were talking about it a lot, and now we see apparently that was not enough because, like, the response came too little, too late and kind of untied putin's hands.

i don't want, of course, to blame anyone but him. he has the full responsibility over the war crime that he is now committing, being streamed online. but still, of course, i try to reflect and to find answers, like, "what went wrong? "how is it possible that we have been so wrong?" because, like, there are 23 years of putin analysis behind us, and we were all thinking he's evil but rational. he is... our model, our perceptions of putin was always that he's trying to make rational steps, like, to maximise his income, his ability to steal money. but... yeah, well, you talk of rationality. i'm just wondering whether your feelings about putin are altogether rational, because i was very struck by something you tweeted just a short time ago.

you described him — putin, that is — as like hitler with a nuclear bomb. now, hitler to russians is the murderer of millions of your fellow countrymen. don't you have to be a little bit careful at this time of terrible, terrible significance to just be a little bit careful with your words? no, of course not. well, i mean, 2022 is still different from 1939, and the world's ability to absorb war, to accept victims, to consider something as acceptable and not acceptable has changed over this, like, 83 years. so, of course, we have to, like, adjust our impression, our perception to this difference between 2022 and 1939. still, putin, without any

provocation, without any rational reason, isjust starting a major war against another european country, publicly declaring his desire to destroy it. and it doesn't so much differ, unfortunately, from september 1st, 1939, from hitler's invasion to poland. but, hang on, whatare you...? what are you in the opposition going to do when — and i put this bluntly, and it's a horrible thing to think about, but — the body bags start coming back to russia? we know from ukrainian sources there've already been russian casualties, some sources saying 100 or more russian service personnel already killed. those are young russians who will come back to your country, they will be mourned, and you in the opposition have to figure out how to deal with this politically. what is your message to russia's people?

well, our message to russian people is, of course, to resist. but now, it finally makes sense to us, actually, why putin did what he has done in the previous two years, why did he poison alexei navalny, why he had, like, expelled our organisation from our country and declare it as an extremist organisation. like, for instance, if i would publicly call russians to turn out for a protest rally in moscow, then everyone would face ten years of imprisonment immediately, for answering my call for participation in an activity of an extremist organisation. well, let me... if you don't mind, let me go through this carefully with you. i mean, some of your group have already called for that. infact, i know from, again, reports inside russia that individuals and small groups of people have been seen in cities like yekaterinburg and novosibirsk already

chanting, "stop the war!" the problem is, as you've just said, your group is now legally defined as an extremist terror organisation. those people, if they take to the streets, are going to be arrested, aren't they? people that participate in the street rallies now in russia face severe risks, not because we are doing something wrong, but also because putin is doing something wrong and because putin destroyed all opportunities for people to participate in politics, to participate in rallies and street protests. but is your message to these people in russia that they should take to the streets? i noticed one of your colleagues still inside the country has called later this week for street protests in many russian towns and cities. i'm just wondering whether you feel you can continue to try to use your social media platforms and your internet

links to call for rallies and protests which you know will lead to people being arrested? we call to people to resist in different possible ways. there are people who resign, who retire from their positions within government organisations. there are people who just do not comply to the criminal orders given by those who are criminals. so, there are different opportunities to resist, and we urge people to look to find the most efficient ways to provide resistance. we support... 0n the social media, we amplify whatever, like, russian celebrities are saying aloud. and now, there is a huge amount of very important messages from public opinion leaders in russia who clearly

express their position, to stop the war, against the war. and so, we use... we try to make the best use of our social media to reach out to our supporters in russia and to people who are still victims of propaganda, to explain what's actually happening. like, right now, and we started it, like, many hours ago, we are doing a huge live broadcast on our main youtube channel, just to explain to our fellow russian citizens what's actually happening and to counter the propaganda. that's so important. right, but as i understand it... obviously, it is very difficult for you now. the anti—corruption foundation has effectively been neutralised inside russia. that is yours and mr navalny�*s organisation, your political movement, which, of course, had offices and organisation across the country. that also now is labelled extremist and is completely illegal.

and i'm just wondering, from your personal point of view, whether you are worried that your remaining family inside russia is going to be targeted? because i know that you quite recently received a letter in exile, saying, "we know where you live," and implying that your family was potentially in danger, too. so, you have to think about this, don't you? and i am thinking of this. i'm like... i'm an ordinary man. and, of course, i do care about my family, friends and relatives back there in russia, and those who also live now abroad, part of my family. but, well, we are talking about something that could potentially result in a third world war, so... he laughs. ..i still have to do myjob. i still have to, like, organise our movement to try to make the situation as painful for putin as possible.

well, i'm not saying we have enough tools to stop him right now, but we have to increase cost for him, like, both internally and internationally, in order to deter him. that's what we were calling for, like, to increase the cost. that's why we were campaigning during the last year for these massive personal sanctions against putin's money. and these sanctions unfortunately came too late. well, we'll talk sanctions injust a moment. just clarify for me, if you would, whether you believe that putin's message, which we saw in that extraordinary address to his national security council — and we've heard in his writings as well — that ukraine is in essence a fake nation, that it really has no legitimacy, that it is run by a puppet regime which he now seems to be saying is neo—nazi in its politics, and that it is a fundamental

threat to russia and russia has every right to re—exert its power in the ukrainian space. that seems to be his message. do you think that has any resonance at all with the russian people? it has some, but very limited. putin definitely wanted to replay the crimea scenario of 2014, when his invasion and conquer of crimea was unfortunately very much supported by the majority of russian population. this unfortunately happened, and all celebrities were supporting putin and there were no protest rallies, and so on and so on and so on. and putin liked it, and maybe that was his expectation, that he will be able to do it again. he miscalculated. he was very wrong. and public opinion in russia is split. according to the most trustworthy polls,

the independent levada polls, it's like 45 pro and 40% contra, which is bad news for putin, which never happened. he used to enjoy like 70 or 80% of popular support. so, now the country's split. we have to work hard also to split putin's elite, to install cracks within the elite that may help, well, to stop him. because there are people inside the government, around putin, who are very unhappy with what's actually happening. they are losing billions and tens of billions. they are losing, like, ties to europe, where the assets and children and yachts and everything is. well, just a quick word on your colleague and associate, alexei navalny, before we get to those sanctions and the impact they're going to have on people around putin, and putin himself. alexei navalny is back in court in his penal colony, facing

new charges which could carry up to 15 years extended to his current sentence. and in court the other day, he basically said everything that's happening in ukraine is a diversion. and i'm just wondering what he meant by that. well, remember where we have been four months ago. the world has been discussing russia, the results of russian parliamentary elections, no recognition of legitimacy of state dumas has been elected. something very painfulfor putin. the world was discussing alexei navalny�*s poisoning. there was a request of 55 countries, led by great britain, in the 0pcw, the chemical weapons organisation, targeting russia, threatening sanctions, asking questions about navalny�*s poisoning. there was a lot of buzz around alexei navalny�*s new trial and his persecution, and also persecution of independent ngos and

independent media in russia. that's all gone. so, putin may... putin was able to divert the agenda completely, so something that was, like, very important and very painfulfor him... right, but... ..four months ago is not any more existent on the agenda. yeah, but it didn't take the invasion of ukraine to make it pretty obvious to me and many others that, as long as vladimir putin's in power, it seems highly unlikely that vladimir... that alexei navalny will ever be freed. would you accept that? and do you think that there is a real danger, given his health problems — he looks gaunt, he's suffered the novichok poisoning — is there a danger that alexei navalny may die in prison? there is a danger. definitely so. and also, because of this diversion, because the only things that kept alexei navalny relatively secure was the attention the world was paying, and now the world... it's completely understandable.

but now, the world is not able to pay that amount of attention. and the timing of alexei navalny�*s new trial is anything but random. it's of course not. it was very carefully selected so that the first trial was during... the first day in court was during the first problems on the ukrainian border, and then, the next day, during the start of military operation, and so on and so on. so, putin, of course, makes it very efficient, like, to make the trial about...against, like, the world political prisoner number one nonexistent in the western media. yeah, 0k. you and navalny described putin as the richest man on earth, as a result, you say, of just the systemic, massive corruption

engaged in by himself and his key associates. what confidence do you have that, for all of the words from president biden, prime minister boris johnson and many others, what confidence do you have that the western powers are going to impose the sort of economic pain on russia that really will force putin to think again? we hope they will finally decide to do so. so, once again, we have urged them. we have asked them, like, for years to do this, to use, to exercise their leverage on putin, because they actually had enormous leverage on putin. corrupt regime needs at least two countries to operate. the one country where the rule of law is nonexistent. in our case, russia, which allows them to steal enormous money. but also, they need a second country, because they want

to pass the assets they stole to their children, to their heirs. they need rule of law to legalise those assets, to buy something, to buy some property, to make it legit and to be able to pass it to their heirs. as they perfectly know, it's not possible in their home country because there is no rule of law. so, for years, they've been pumping, like, hundreds of billions of dollars, like putin and his friends, to the west. london being the most important destination for the money stolen from russian taxpayers, and that's somethings that always made and still makes him vulnerable. but i come back to the question, because i understand what you are saying, but the fact is that the london property and financial markets are now so used to russian money that there is a real danger they will suffer great

pain if they withdraw from it. same with the international energy market. same with the luxury goods market in countries like italy. there are all sorts of different ways in which the wielders of power in the west are going to have to accept real pain at home if they disengage completely from the russian economy. my question is again this, do you think those in the west are prepared to take that pain? they were not... even if they were not prepared, the time has come. so, first of all, like, let me rephrase. it's always painful to get off heroin. but you are literally saying, like, "ok, it's so painful that i'll do it later," but later you will still have to do it if you want to survive, but later it will be more painful, right? so, the earlier you do it the better.

and if you would have... if you would have done it, like, a couple of years ago, the war would not be happening today, that's first. and second, yes, now the influence of putin's money in the west is so large that getting rid of it and exercising it as leverage would be painful. and, well, undersimilar conditions, a great leader of your country said, "i can promise nothing but pain and blood and tears," and i don't recall... right... so, even if there now is an acceptance in the west that they need to take drastic measures, which will be painful at home, but they need to do it to isolate russia completely in economic terms, even if they do it, russia now seems to be feeling it is increasingly resilient. they've built up massive foreign currency reserves. some say $600 billion worth, or more. they've struck new trade and energy deals with china, which insulate the russian economy to a certain extent.

are you sure russia is as vulnerable as you claim it is? well, that's the only leverage the west now has on russia. well, i don't pretend and i don't expect that, like, nato would start a war with russia. not going to happen, right? so, the only, like, "peaceful" leverage the west still has is going after putin's money and trying to use it. so, this is something that, at least, is worth trying, because everything else we know already. all those diplomatic efforts of this, like, you know, shuttle diplomacy didn't work. another thought. you're an it expert. that was your specialism before you got into politics, and cyber warfare is something you study closely and know a great deal about. it seems right now that, again, russia is on the front foot. they're very capable of disrupting ukraine's cyber capabilities. they're also very capable of disrupting your political

activities on the internet. do you fear that, again, the west has underestimated putin's ability to exert power through digital means? yes, the west has underestimated the risks here in the cyberspace, and indeed we don't see any solid response and any strategy of response. ok, so putin is bombing ukrainian cities right now, and we don't see any disruptions in communications only in those of the ukrainians. so, like, presumably many nato countries should have developed also, like, a cyber unit that should be capable of operating in the cyberspace to deter attacks like this. but this is so far not happening, and that's quite disappointing. leonid volkov, i have

to ask you this. do you believe that vladimir putin has just taken the biggest political gamble of his life? because whatever happens next in ukraine, what we can say for sure is that it is deeply uncertain and it could carry a very high cost for russia. yes, putin is taking enormous risks. he... well, i believe... i still believe he miscalculated. he overestimated his ability to be lucky and to get out of any trouble situation without being held responsible for it. so, i believe that, actually, as we say in russia, putin is trying to eat a piece of cake that's too large for his mouth. i believe he will actually strangle over this. 0n the other hand, nationalism

is an extremely powerful force in russia, and that remains true, does it not? er, it's not really so. and it doesn't work against ukraine. i mean, ukraine is our neighbours. 50 million ethnic ukrainians live in russia. almost every... almost every family in russia has relatives or close friends, or both, in ukraine. you just can't sell this nationalist idea, even through the most powerful propaganda machine, even through putin's propaganda machine. it wouldn't work. leonid volkov, we have to end there. but i thank you very much indeed forjoining me from california. thank you.

hello there. we're ending the working week on a largely fine and settled note thanks to a ridge of high pressure. the winds and showers continue to ease down during the overnight period. it's a chilly start to friday morning, but there will be a lot of sunshine around and it'll feel a little bit warmer than it did yesterday, too. here's the ridge of high pressure pushing in from the west. you can see fewer isobars, so lighter winds. this weather front, though, may bring more cloud to northern ireland, western scotland later on. could start with a few blustery showers through the morning. these will fade away, the winds will turn lighter, plenty of sunshine bar a little fairweather cloud into the afternoon. more cloud for northern ireland and western scotland thanks to that weather front i showed you and outbreaks of rain for western scotland. could see a little wintriness over the higher ground as well. but the temperatures a bit higher than yesterday's, 7—11, maybe 12 degrees across the far southwest. as we head through friday night, it stays cloudy for

scotland and northern ireland, quite breezy here, too. for england and wales, we'll have clear skies, lighter winds here, so another chilly night to come. maybe a touch of frost out of town, less cold further north and west where we have more cloud and more breeze. into the weekend, this area of high pressure over the near continent will influence the weather across england and wales. you'll see the further northwest you go closer to this weather front, it's likely to be cloudier and also breezier. so, more cloud for scotland and northern ireland through the day. could see some outbreaks of rain for the northwest of scotland. should be drier further south and east, but for england and wales, another largely fine, dry and settled day. after that chilly start, with all the sunshine around, it'll be quite mild with top temperatures of 10—12 degrees, so feeling quite springlike. similar story for england and wales on sunday, though this weather front may have a bit more influence. this area of low pressure will have more of an influence across the country during monday to bring us outbreaks of rain. so, sunday starts off dry and bright, plenty of sunshine

across england and wales. that weather front, though, fading as it moves its way eastwards to bring a bit more cloud around. but again, scotland and northern ireland probably seeing most of the cloud through the day, and temperatures, again, similar to saturday's — 8—11 degrees. on monday, that area of low pressure i showed you brings wetter conditions for a time on monday, but then, high pressure builds back in and the rest of the week looks largely fine and settled with some spells of sunshine.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore, i'm karishma vaswani. the headlines: explosions. russia launches a full—scale assault on ukraine with missiles hitting multiple targets. vladimir putin has this warning. translation: whoever tries to interfere with _ translation: whoever tries to interfere with us _ translation: whoever tries to interfere with us or _ translation: whoever tries to interfere with us or threaten - interfere with us or threaten our country should know that russia's response will be immediate, and leads to such consequences that have never been experienced in history. queues on the roads in ukraine's capital kyiv, with an exodus of fearful residents.

we have armoured personnel carriers