tv Africa Eye BBC News February 25, 2022 2:30am-3:01am GMT
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eu leaders announced sanctions on russia targeting its financial, energy and sectors. an excellent ban on material. russian is to upgrade its oil refineries. it follows similar measures taken by governments across the west. ukraine says more than 130 people have been killed as forces begin a second day of fighting with russia. the country is under attack on multiple fronts. there are reports russia has captured the disused chernobyl powerplant. disused chernobyl powerpla nt. nations disused chernobyl powerplant. nations are preparing to receive huge numbers of people fleeing the conflict. 100,000 ukrainians have already fled since the invasion began. they are your headlines.
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now we discussed the biggest stories newscast. this week, adam isn't here. chris isn't here. i couldn't have a better partner in the studio with me than this week thanjames. a friend and colleague of the westminster parish. james, it has been a very sombre, serious and historic day for all the wrong reasons. when did you discover what was going on? i got a text, on my phone next to my bed, you hear the news. what struck me then and then throughout the day is just the sense of the enormity of the change we are experiencing. it is very easy should do what we do. sometimes you need to step back and pull the threads of history together and say, crikey. this is a big moment.
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because so much has changed. we as human beings are very conservative, we like our norms, we like what we know, and what we know has changed today, and will change for ever, and i think that requires one to take a step back and take a breath and it's very hard in the initial phases of a story or crisis like this to do that, but i think it does require us all to step back and think, the world is different now. the world is different now, from looking at the pictures of what we are seeing, coming out of european country, a country that is only about 1,000 miles away from where we're sitting talking in westminster and recording at about 7:00 on thursday night, vladimir putin's troops invaded ukraine, a european country, with borders with all sorts of eu countries, in the very early hours of this morning, about 5:00am, and all of those certainties, many politicians would say that they have had for their whole generation,
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all of their certainty is that many of us would have had for our lives, that smaller countries, less powerful countries, do not get invaded by big, noisy, bruiser neighbours. the thing that also struck me is, in myjob i tend to travel a bit, at least pre—covid, and i go to parts of the world where people live with conflict all the time, and we shouldn't forget that. the difference is that this is about europe, it's closer to home, there's that awful phrase, "a first world problem," when people are worrying about things on the internet or something is wrong with... not being able to get the right coffee. yes, first world problems. those today on a day like today take a step back and we get down to hard tax, what we're talking about here is a city — i was in kyivjust a few weeks ago myself —
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and it is a european city, it is a place where it looks like, feels like, it is a european city, and yet it is under attack as we speak. war in europe. welcome to this week's newscast. so, the day began with vladimir putin's rambling announcement, we don't quite know when it was recorded, but essentially declaring war on ukraine, and of course from the uk side, like all the other western allies, the response, the acknowledgement, the need for a response, and the horror, was pretty immediate, there was a cobra meeting, the government's emergency committee at 7:30 this morning, mid—morning, there was then a statement from the prime minister talking of the grave danger that basically war in our continent for the first time in so many decades, and then the prime minister was in the commons later on this afternoon... for this, putin will stand condemned in the eyes
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of the world, and of history. he will never be able to cleanse the blood of ukraine from his hands. and although the uk and allies tried every avenue for diplomacy until the final hour, i'm driven to conclude that putin was always determined to attack his neighbour, no matter what we did. now we see him for what he is. a bloodstained aggressor who believes in imperial conquest. coming to mps and to the public with the uk's response, which won't be, we don't think it will ever be, uk boots on the ground, it is really important to understand that, but instead, a package of sanctions, so more freezes on assets, action against banks, individual punishments for about 100 oligarchs and companies. james, what do you make of the uk's diplomatic approach to this? well, what's been interesting in the weeks coming up
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to it is two things. one is as an exercise of diplomacy, it hasn't been too bad. it's been relatively united. a lot of people thought, and the russians presumed, that the west would crumble and would split on this, because there are differences over what sanctions should be applied, but actually, in terms of strategy the west has been remarkably united, and attempts to divide have not succeeded and there are lots of fears for example that the germans wouldn't stop the nord stream 2 pipeline, but actually, they were first out of the chocks to ban it. so, a big oil pipeline that would have earned billions for russia. at huge cost to germany and the rest of europe, because it will mean higher gas prices and energy prices. that is the first point. the second point is that this whole issue of sanctions, and the big row we've had in the last 2a hours, was it enough? it's quite obvious that no sanctions were going to deter president putin. if you watched that speech
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earlier in the week, one hour and five minutes long, it was all about why ukraine should not exist. historically, he blamed lenin for it, and it should not exist, geographically, because it was part of russia, and it should not exist politically because he believed that the current government, although democratically elected, was illegitimate. and if you take that view, then nothing was going to stop this man. we've got some great people to talk to as well, but i just wanted to compare expectations from the people we've been talking to today. so, talking to some politicians who've been party to some of the chats inside government about what's really going on. it seems to me that the broad expectation, and of course, this is a very volatile situation, is that it is going to be very hard to stop president putin getting to kyiv and taking the country and trying to instil some kind of propped up government, and that whatever the west does, they may be able, over time,
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to degrade his economy, to make really unworthwhile for him to be there, but at this stage, it seems like the expectation is it will be very hard to do that, partly because russian special forces seem to have been inside ukraine already, looking for people who might help them, and also looking for people who they might have to take out or remove, who might be people who would resist, does that match up with what you have heard from your end of the landscape? the people i talk to whose names i cannot repeat and i can't tell you where they come from... it's newscast, but you don't give away your sources, it's ok! the idea was that there would be a quick thrust to kyiv but also a second effort to seal off and control ukraine's forces in the east, because that is where the weight of ukraine's elite troops are. what the russians don't want is those two to unite. the question mark hanging over that, though — when you talk to the military specialists — is, they say, what happens
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when the russian forces get to kyiv? do theyjust encircle it and hope that they can oust the sitting government and replace it with their own puppet regime? but if they cannot do that, do they then actually have to enter kyiv proper? because entering kyiv proper, and if that is defended by ukraine, suddenly you get into urban warfare. urban warfare is slow, it is bloody, it is difficult with huge casualties on both sides. and that is the sort of scenario that the military guys say russia would probably want to avoid if it can. so it is easy to drive military... tanks through the countryside. down through roads and things. but if you get into an urban environment, then it becomes different. if that is where we get to. and slowing down, therefore, might be one of the best things the allies might be able to hope for, to make things harder for the vladimir putin. one of the other things to say is, this isn't remote, we are all going to feel this
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when we fill up our car, maybe even when we by bread at the supermarket — ukraine is a huge food exporter — this is going to do all sorts of things possibly, we are all going to feel this. we are all going to feel this. whether or not you are the kind of person who follows foreign, and whether or not you are somebody well acquainted with all of this, and vladimir putin's mode of behaviour, we are all going to feel this in one way or another. certainly, if this is something that is resisted by the west for a period of time, then there will be a price to be paid for it economically and socially, certainly. i think lots of people in this country, ukraine, you know it is on the edge of europe, you know vaguely where it is, but, james, you're a diplomatic expert, tell us a bit about the geography of what's going on. well, you've got to understand, ukraine is an enormous country. in the past, newspapers would say something was compared to the size of wales, well, ukraine is sort of france and germany stuck together
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with a few other countries... it is enormous, from east to west. obviously, the initial flashpoint was towards the east, the area known as the donbas, the disputed regions. then to the south, obviously, crimea, that was then annexed by russia in 2014. and then just spread around the country, if you look at the map, kyiv right slap—bang in the middle to the north, crucially, close to belarus, where thousands and thousands of russian troops have been based, and all around it you can see those little flashpoints, just shows you the sheer scale and geographic breadth of the incursion, the invasion, that is taking place. kiev, of course, the fear in the uk government is that putin's troops are all heading for the capital, and right there for us tonight i'm pleased to say on newscast is lyse doucet, our excellent and amazing bbc chief international correspondent.
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you are kyiv, lyse. what does it feel like there to you? laura and james, i have to confess that even though we have been poring over those intelligence reports, we're seeing more intelligence getting brought out into the open than in any other conflict of our time, the americans are sharing more intelligence with their european partners than in any other conflict of their time. but every time i heard president biden or boris johnson saying, "president putin is going to target kyiv," i said, and in conversations with others, even defence ministers and foreign ministers, no, really? would president putin really try to take over kyiv? it seemed unthinkable. but i have to say, in kyiv tonight, ukrainians are thinking the unthinkable. russian forces have already taken over a major airfield, which isjust 1.5 hours' drive from here, and further north, closer
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to the belarusian border, they have now, again, unthinkably, taken over the chernobyl power station. ukrainians went to bed last night, many did not get any sleep, tonight will be another sleepless night because they will be thinking, is kyiv going to be hit? is kyiv going to be the target? what sort of strategy do you infer from what's happened today? what do you think is the russian aim? you see the comments on social media, half in gest, the black humour one often sees in times like this, although this is no laughing matter, but this time, western intelligence was correct. they talked about a movement into ukraine from many directions, and we have seen them coming from the north, with president putin said, "no, no, no, we are not going to invade, "these are just military exercises
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"with our allies in belarus." in the east, where russia said, no, we had tens of thousands of troops on the border with eastern ukraine for a long time. from the south, they are also coming in, the russian navy now in the black sea. they are coming on like this, and there was talk of a pincer movement to come and take kyiv. from what we see, they are steadily moving forward. yes, ukrainian forces are fighting back, but when you look at these shocking images coming from across ukraine today, i could only think of president zelenskyy time and again saying in recent weeks, thank you so much for the weapons and ammunition that western armies have been sending us, thank you so much for the training that western armies have been giving us. but when it comes to the fight, it will be only ukraine which will be doing this fight. from people you have spoken to in ukraine in the last 2a hours, what sticks in your mind? who have you talked to and the decisions and folks in peoples minds?
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—— who have you talked to and the decisions and thoughts in people's minds? these are historic times that matter, most of all to ukrainians but to all of us. these are times to turn to poets and philosophers, and i heard from a philosopher today, who said ukrainians are just ordinary people. "we just want to live normal lives. "we want to live in our own country." he says, "i have three daughters and quite possibly, "we are thinking this could be the end of our normal times". this is a story of our time. we had the pandemic, which crossed borders, we have the climate emergency, which crossed borders, and this is the crossing borders of all crossing borders that we are seeing tonight and for many days to come. lyse, thank you so much and please,
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you and your team who are working hard, go well. and who better than to try and help us navigate it but somebody who was the foreign secretary once upon a time, jeremy hunt, conservative mp now chair of the health select committee. thank you forjoining us. hi, laura. hello. so, first off. most straightforwardly, having been foreign secretary 2018—19, so recently in the sweep of history, what did you make of what the prime minister announced today — what he described as this really severe package of sanctions? what is your take? well, it's a lot better than what we had yesterday but the truth is sanctions are not going to be enough. putin will have predicted sanctions and discounted sanctions and they are going to take a very long time to work. he has got $600 billion worth of foreign currency reserved. and what you are really trying to do with sanctions is to make it more difficult for the russian state to finance the russian military, so it's a long—term
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game but it's definitely the right thing to do, but i am afraid history has really changed today and we have to revisit all our assumptions and we've got to go back to looking at whether we have the right defence capability in europe because, for the first time really that i can remember — certainly the first time this century — we have a major power that is prepared to smash and grab smaller countries on its periphery, and that is a massive, massive change. what does that mean in practical terms? does it mean just reconstituting the way we think about nato, the way we think about our own armed forces, how much we spent on it? you obviously have to look at the funding for defence but there are bigger questions we have to ask. i mean, what about those smaller countries that aren't members of nato? we know would go to the defence of poland, but there are lots of other smaller countries that may be at risk in the way ukraine was.
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does it work that european countries spend about 2% of their gdp on defence? america spends 4% and we expect america to take the leadership role. so all these things are now, sadly, going to have to be rethought. jeremy, what do you think about the un? because one of the things that struck me today was the extraordinary image in the early hours of the united nations security council meeting in emergency session to discuss this crisis and yet, it was a meeting that was chaired by a russian diplomat. the un is a paradox. you will have understood this from your many reports from the un, james, but there is a great paradox in the un because it really has no actual power because it totally depends on consensus. but nonetheless, everyone who's involvement in it says it is much better
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to have a forum where people who don't agree with each other can sit down and talk than not to have that forum, so it is valuable that we have a security council, even though we have this profound disagreement with both russia and china about that how the world should work, but we can't count on it. in the end, what you have to count on is strength, and if you believe in democracy and the rule of law — that is basically nato plus a few other countries like australia and, increasingly, japan — and we have to ask ourselves whether the structures that we have, as people who say we believe in liberal democracy, the rule of law, big countries not invading small countries, is it up to scratch? and i don't think there are very many people who, in their hearts today, who will say that it is. do you think that the west, the liberal democracies that you are talking about, actually have the will to do that? because essentially,
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you are saying they need to spend more on defence and be more willing to deploy defence to defend their ideals and their principles that have been so shattered by the events of the last 2a hours. well, this is the most fundamental question of all, james, because i think, if you are looking at the 20th century through the lens of democracy and freedom, you would say that, by the end of that century, freedom won, but it took us two world wars, a holocaust and a cold war to get there. the question is, this century, are we — the question is, this century, are we going to get to that point — are we going to get to that point where freedom wins? i think— point where freedom wins? i think it — point where freedom wins? i think it will do, by the way, because _ think it will do, by the way, because i_ think it will do, by the way, because i think it is the most powerful— because i think it is the most powerful ideal you can have. are we — powerful ideal you can have. are we going to need all of the pain— are we going to need all of the pain to — are we going to need all of the pain to get there or are we going _ pain to get there or are we going to _ pain to get there or are we going to learn the lessons of what — going to learn the lessons of what happened before and take action_ what happened before and take action before it gets to that point? _
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are you suggesting, though, that this could be the period — this could be the beginning of a period of prolonged conflicts ? and the implication, if i am reading you right, of what you are saying is we may be back in a situation where western forces actually have to fight — whether that is through nato or anything else? well, when i grew up in the 1980s, my dad was in the navy all his life, we knew that we couldn't take freedom and democracy for granted because there was a big superpower not very far away that didn't believe in it and so, we had that very different assumption to the assumption that we've had since the fall of the berlin wall in 1989. we are now back in a world where two big powers — russia and china — don't share our assumptions about some of the basic things about how the world should be run and so, yes, i'm afraid, very sadly, what's happened today has crystallised that change in many people's minds and the question is are
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we going to get our act together quickly so that we can avoid all those tragedies that we had in the 20th century, or are we going to end up being as complacent as people were in the run—up to both — first and second world wars? but does that mean we might have to change our assumption, which is the assumption, certainly in this country right now and, i think in other western countries, too, that there won't be boots on the ground? i was talking to some of your colleagues today and there was a real sense of regret, some of them saying, actually, the uk essentially, partly over that famous vote over syria, partly, of course, over what happened in the summer in afghanistan with that — too many people, distressing withdrawal from kabul, essentially the uk and other western countries have taken force of the table and therefore, that is a green light to people who want to take countries, who want to see themselves as strongmen and roll tanks into wherever they like.
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yes, we are paying the price for decades of foreign policy failure. there is this great irony in foreign policy that — if you have strength and are willing to use it, in the end, you are more likely to avert war than to cause war, and it's because putin has calculated that, in the end, the west won't come to the aid of a non—nato country that he has taken this enormous gamble with ukraine, so we absolutely have to rethink all those assumptions, those comfortable assumptions that we had before, that basically, whatever else went wrong in the world, freedom and democracy were not fundamentally going to be at risk, because i'm afraid that's not the case. but when you say we must rethink and get our act together, you know, as we talk now at 7pm, not even 2a hours on thursday since putin rolled his troops further into ukraine, what do you mean "right now"? okay, i'm not advocating western military intervention
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in- ukraine. we have never had conflict between permanent nuclear armed members of the united nations security council, and that will be a very high—risk route. but we are going to have to be willing to build up our military capabilities and be willing to project force going forward. because if we aren't, then our opponents will calculate that what they did today, they can do again, and so, that is a very big change. jeremy, you spent a large part of your career when you were in the foreign office dealing with russians — and you dealt closely with sergei lavrov, the foreign minister, the veteran foreign minister who has held the position for, i think, for 18 years now. do you think, though, that the russian leadership at the moment is detterable, it is beatable, it is persuadable that, regardless of western
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strength, western unity — because you could argue that there has been a greater sense of western unity than some had imagined, that there has been greater agreement about sanctions, there's been an awful lot of diplomacy going on, and yet the russians have carried on and on what they have done. do you think they can be persuaded? i do, and we could have averted what happened but they fundamentally interpreted what happened, for example, after the murder of alexander litvinenko in london — that horrific poisoning — we huffed and we puffed and then a few years later both the government in britain and the united states said they wanted to do a reset of relations and give the russians another chance. crosstalk. it was one bjohnson who went to try and have that reset with lavrov? yes, and it might have been earlier than that, one of his predecessors,
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and we had the same thing happen after the invasions in georgia and after the crimea, and each time, the russians interpreted this as us wanting to make a bit of noise when they did something bad but, in the end, not being willing to follow through, and that's what has to be different this time. 0kay, jeremy, we must leave it there but we appreciate as ever, coming on newscast and giving us the benefit of your expertise and your views. thank you so much for being with us. thank you! thank you very much to both of you. james, it has been great having you with us tonight, sharing your knowledge and the perfect person to sit in for your knowledge and the perfect person to sit in for adam your knowledge and the perfect person to sit in for adam on your knowledge and the perfect person to sit in for adam on a day like today, such an important day and with telling everyone you can keep up with everything that is happening in ukraine on our brand new sister podcast ukrainecast, with james de bisha —— victoria derbyshire. thank you very much for being with us.
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james, thank you again. cheerio, bye—bye. newscast. newscast. newscast. from the sac. _ hello there. we're ending the working week on a largely fine and settled note, thanks to a ridge of high pressure. the winds and showers continue to ease down during the overnight period. it's a chilly start to friday morning but there will be a lot of sunshine around and it'll feel a little bit warmer than it did yesterday, too. now, here's the ridge of high pressure pushing in from the west. you can see fewer isobars, so lighter winds. this weather front, though, may bring more cloud northern ireland, western scotland later on. could start with a few blustery showers through the morning. these will fade away, the winds will turn lighter, plenty of sunshine bar a little fair weather cloud into the afternoon. more cloud for northern ireland and western scotland, thanks to that weather front i showed you, and outbreaks of rain for western scotland. could see a little bit
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of wintriness over the higher ground as well. but the temperatures a bit higher than yesterday's — 7—11, maybe 12 degrees across the far south—west. as we head through friday night, it stays cloudy for scotland and northern ireland — quite breezy here, too. for england and wales, we'll have clear skies. lighter winds here, so another chilly night to come. maybe a touch of frost out of town. less cold further north and west, where we have more cloud and more breeze. into the weekend, then, this area of high pressure over the near continent will influence the weather across england and wales. but you'll see the further north—west you go, closer to this weather front, it's likely to be cloudier and also breezier, so more cloud for scotland and northern ireland through the day, could see some outbreaks of rain for the north—west of scotland. it should be drier further south and east but for england and wales, another largely fine, dry and settled day. and after that chilly start, with all the sunshine around, it'll be quite mild with top temperatures of 10—12 degrees, so feeling quite springlike.
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similar story for england and wales on sunday, though this weather front may have a bit more influence. this area of low pressure will have more of an influence across the country — during monday, it'll bring us outbreaks of rain. so, sunday starts off dry and bright, plenty of sunshine across england and wales. that weather front, though, fading as it moves its way eastwards to bring a bit more cloud around. but again, scotland and northern ireland probably seeing most of the cloud through the day and temperatures again similar to saturday's — 8—11 degrees. on monday, that area of low pressure i showed you brings wetter conditions for a time on monday but then, high pressure builds back in and the rest of the week looks largely fine and settled with some spells of sunshine.
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welcome to bbc news. i'm nuala mcgovern. our top stories: the eu says it is imposing severe sanctions on russia, targeting its financial, energy and transport sectors. as russia's invasion into that second day, 137 citizens have been killed. leaving their lives behind, the un says around 100,000 ukrainians have led the country. they urge their neighbours to keep their borders open. russians take to the streets of more than 50 cities to protest the government's move. almost 2000 arrests.
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