hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching context on bbc news. five days into the invasion of ukraine and president putin is intensifying his war. the civilian areas of kharkiv were bombed today — ukraine's president makes a direct appeal to the russian soldiers who've invaded his country. drop your weapons and get out of here. do not believe your commanders, do not believe your propagandists. just save your lives and go. the west puts new sanctions on russia's central bank — freezing its assets and banning transactions. it's an unprecedented move against one of the world's biggest central banks. huge crowds are camped in ukraine's railway stations as they try to escape

to neighbouring countries — over half a million have fled since the war began. and russia's national and club football teams are suspended from all international competition by fifa and uefa. tonight with the context, nathalie tocci, former eu foreign policy advisor and now director of italy's institute of international affairs and the times columnist, alex massie. welcome to the programme. after a long weekend under curfew, the residents of ukraine's two largest cities, kyiv and kharkiv ventured out today to grocery stores and pharmacies. a small window of freedom that coincided with some of the heaviest shelling and street fighting that's been seen, since this invasion began. the russians say they come as liberators —

but these are smerch cluster munition rockets fired into a built—up civilian area raining bomblets indiscriminately over a wide area of the city. today in kharkiv at least 11 people were confirmed dead. hundreds more were injured. for now the two main cities remain in ukrainian hands. it is remarkable, five days into this war, and while facing the might of the russian army, that somehow the ukrainians continues to blunt the advance. the odds though are overwhelming. in red you can see the areas now under russian control. this is chernihiv — in the north of ukraine pummelled by the russians this morning — and this is all that remains of a cinema in the main square of the city. a few hours ago another huge explosion, this time outside kyiv — that rattled the bomb shelters in the centre of the city. there are more russian troops heading towards kyiv from the north — these earlier satellite images showed a convoy of russian vehicles 3 miles long — that was only a0 miles

from the capital. and while this devastating onslaught continued, the ukrainians agreed to meet with the russians in a conference room on the belarus border. these were the first talks since the conflict began. it ended without any agreement. the negotiators say they will take the talking points back to their respective leaders. let's speak to the bbc�*s clive myrie who's in kyiv tonight. tonight the white house said russia is getting frustrated by the slow progress and could review their tactics to get more aggressive. when you look at the pictures in kharkiv today, that could be a concern. yes. today, that could be a concern. yes, it would be, — today, that could be a concern. yes, it would be, and _ today, that could be a concern. yes, it would be, and i— today, that could be a concern. yes, it would be, and i think _ today, that could be a concern. yes, it would be, and i think it's - it would be, and i think it's probably true, frankly. the ukrainians have been targeting their resistance, they have been clever in the resistance, they have been targeting supply lines, for

instance, so there has been numerous pictures on social media of russian tanks breaking down, running out of fuel, and rather young conscripts overfrom siberia being bewildered, not knowing what to do, stranded in these areas with local ukrainian forces bearing down on them. it has to be said, out of the 180, 100 90,000 troops that are on the northern border, the eastern border and the southern border, ringing this country, that vladimir putin has put into the theatre of battle, he is probably only used about 60% of them, and they will be the least experienced fighters that he has put into the theatre. the fact is that is another a0%, and those fighters could well be coming in over the next few days to try to break the

resistance of the ukrainians. i think those in the corridors of power in the kremlin and fundamentally vladimir putin and his generals, i think they have been completely surprised by how difficult this job has completely surprised by how difficult thisjob has been, and we know that one pro—putin journalist mistakenly put out in the public domain, he pressed send on his computer, a victory lap, an article talking about how it is wonderful that ukraine is now part of mother russia again. that was sent in error, but it was written ahead of time because the russians thought this was going to be a cakewalk. it was going to be chechnya, it was going to be crimea in 2014. it has turned out to be nothing like those campaigns. turned out to be nothing like those camaians. . , campaigns. that is quite extraordinary, _ campaigns. that is quite extraordinary, isn't - campaigns. that is quite extraordinary, isn't it? l campaigns. that is quite extraordinary, isn't it? i| campaigns. that is quite - extraordinary, isn't it? i want campaigns. that is quite - extraordinary, isn't it? iwant to extraordinary, isn't it? i want to talk about russian soldiers and their mentality. in new york today, ukraine's ambassador to the un,

addressed an emergency session of the general assembly — its only the 11 time since 1950 they have called such a meeting, and he read out a text message they had recovered from a phone, that was found on a dead russian soldier. and it's a conversation between a mother and son, which took place just a short time before he was killed. have a listen. mother, lam in ukraine. there is a realwar raging here. lam afraid. we are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians. we were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armoured vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. they call us fascists. mum and this is so hard.

we should remember a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, and given that was a personal message to a soldier's mother, some of them do not know what they are coming into. yeah, i mean, it is heartbreaking, and that testimony at the general assembly, as you say, very rarely done. that chimes with what we are hearing about the conscripts that are coming over here to fight this war, that they were told they would be treated as liberators, that they were told they would be welcomed in the streets. some of them are told that they were actually coming on a training exercise. these are young conscripts, 18, 19, 20—year—olds, who are basically being treated, it seems, like cannon fodder, not even tell what the mission is, in honesty, what they are supposed to

be over here to try to accomplish. they thought they were coming here on a completely different pretext to what it has turned out, and remember, ukrainian army is much better train, remember, ukrainian army is much bettertrain, much remember, ukrainian army is much better train, much better equipped thanit better train, much better equipped than it was in 2014 when the russians walked into crimea. nato weaponry has been coming in, it is slow because of the war, obviously, now, but laterweaponry slow because of the war, obviously, now, but later weaponry has been coming into this area over the last three, four weeks. the european union is now willing to send weaponry to a country that is at war, outside the block itself, and germany began this campaign by sending helmets. the president here said, what is that about? now the germans are sending weapons. that is the first time they have done that since 1945. i mean, everything in this conflict suggests that the

world order is being changed and turned upside down, but on a micro level, those conscripts who are coming over here from russia, thinking they are in a training exercise, they could well be on a hiding to nothing.— hiding to nothing. indeed so. as clive says. _ hiding to nothing. indeed so. as clive says. it _ hiding to nothing. indeed so. as clive says, it has _ hiding to nothing. indeed so. as clive says, it has been _ hiding to nothing. indeed so. as clive says, it has been a - hiding to nothing. indeed so. as| clive says, it has been a massive shift in eu thinking. 0ver clive says, it has been a massive shift in eu thinking. over three or four days over the weekend you were in munich at the security conference a week ago, could you imagine at that point we would be tonight? ida. that point we would be tonight? no, i couldn't have _ that point we would be tonight? no, i couldn't have imagined it, and what _ i couldn't have imagined it, and what is — i couldn't have imagined it, and what is striking about the situation is that— what is striking about the situation is that in_ what is striking about the situation is that in munich a week ago it was already— is that in munich a week ago it was already fairly clear that there would have been an invasion. what was not _ would have been an invasion. what was not clear is the extent that that invasion would have taken, how far putin _ that invasion would have taken, how far putin would have gone, but i remember— far putin would have gone, but i remember putting it very clearly to the german defence minister in munich— the german defence minister in munich and asking whether germany

would _ munich and asking whether germany would be _ munich and asking whether germany would be willing to review its policy — would be willing to review its policy concerning weapon support, and the _ policy concerning weapon support, and the answer was a very clear no. i and the answer was a very clear no. i asked _ and the answer was a very clear no. i asked her— and the answer was a very clear no. i asked her a — and the answer was a very clear no. i asked her a question about germany spending _ i asked her a question about germany spending 2% on defence, there was a kind of. _ spending 2% on defence, there was a kind of. you — spending 2% on defence, there was a kind of, you know, skirting the question— kind of, you know, skirting the question of fudging it by saying they would broadly spend 3% on development, diplomacy and defence, and this— development, diplomacy and defence, and this is, _ development, diplomacy and defence, and this is, again, in a context in which _ and this is, again, in a context in which already was fairly clear that putin was— which already was fairly clear that putin was going to make a move on ukraine, _ putin was going to make a move on ukraine, so— putin was going to make a move on ukraine, so there has been a paradigms shift, and i think it's important — paradigms shift, and i think it's important to recognise that the reason — important to recognise that the reason i — important to recognise that the reason i think fundamentally why there _ reason i think fundamentally why there has— reason i think fundamentally why there has been this paradigms shift is obviously this is an invasion of ukraine, — is obviously this is an invasion of ukraine, but the way europeans are thinking _ ukraine, but the way europeans are thinking about this war is that it is a war— thinking about this war is that it is a war in— thinking about this war is that it is a war in europe, on european

values, — values, because of what ukraine stands _ values, because of what ukraine stands for— values, because of what ukraine stands for and aspires to, and this is what _ stands for and aspires to, and this is what touches the hearts and minds of europeans today, and it is what is fundamentally leading to a paradigm shift.— is fundamentally leading to a paradigm shift. you might have cau~ht paradigm shift. you might have caught the _ paradigm shift. you might have caught the beginning _ paradigm shift. you might have caught the beginning of - paradigm shift. you might have caught the beginning of an - paradigm shift. you might have caught the beginning of an air l paradigm shift. you might have i caught the beginning of an air raid siren, so we can say goodbye to clive, who is on balcony. we have the swedes and finns sending weapons, norway, the swiss, historically neutral, following other european sanctions, it cannot just be russian soldiers who are scratching their heads. there must be russians and the kremlin scratching their heads. you would think so. scratching their heads. you would think s0- the _ scratching their heads. you would think so. the impression - scratching their heads. you would think so. the impression one - scratching their heads. you would | think so. the impression one gets scratching their heads. you would i think so. the impression one gets is that vladimir putin is perhaps more isolated than has previously been the case. you look at his generals when they are seen on television, they do not look particularly happy.

this is quite an extraordinary fast—moving situation, it is difficult to remember sometimes that the war is less than a week old, and everything happened so very rapidly these days, and there is so much information out there, exacerbated and encouraged by social media, that it is difficult to reach definitive conclusions on flimsy pieces of evidence, but what is certain is that this is fundamentally a war about self—determination. does ukraine have the right to make its own choices about its own future? we see that also now in scandinavia, as well, with finland and sweden seriously thinking aboutjoining seriously thinking about joining seriously thinking aboutjoining nato. the russians suggest that were they to do so they would face military and political consequences. well, that, too, is an affront to the independence of finland and sweden. this is fundamentally a war

of principle, actually. it's not just a police action of the sort that vladimir putin may have thought he was launching, he it's much bigger than that, that helps explain the continent wide, notjust in europe, but particularly obviously in europe, the revulsion that you see against russia's actions. this icture see against russia's actions. this picture that _ see against russia's actions. this picture that we — see against russia's actions. this picture that we have _ see against russia's actions. this picture that we have got today of president zelensky with his senior figures signing accession to the european union, signing a paper, effectively, their application to fast—track membership of the european union, and tonight there are a number of countries that have come out, most of the baltic countries and eastern european nations, who want the eu to consider this. how would that work, would it be considered in brussels? weill. this. how would that work, would it be considered in brussels? well, you know, the commission _ be considered in brussels? well, you know, the commission president, - know, the commission president, ursula _ know, the commission president, ursula von— know, the commission president, ursula von der leyen, was clear about— ursula von der leyen, was clear about this, _ ursula von der leyen, was clear about this, and so the commission is

on the _ about this, and so the commission is on the same — about this, and so the commission is on the same line, number of states on the same line, number of states on the _ on the same line, number of states on the same — on the same line, number of states on the same line, number of states on the same line, but i really like this to _ on the same line, but i really like this to the — on the same line, but i really like this to the fact that ukrainian ukrainians today are demonstrating that they— ukrainians today are demonstrating that they are the best europeans that they are the best europeans that you — that they are the best europeans that you can get, and what was unthinkable a week ago has become not only— unthinkable a week ago has become not only possible but desirable today~ — not only possible but desirable toda . �* , ., ~ not only possible but desirable toda. �*, .,~ ., not only possible but desirable toda. �*, , not only possible but desirable toda. �*, , today. let's take a step back and consider where _ today. let's take a step back and consider where we _ today. let's take a step back and consider where we are _ today. let's take a step back and consider where we are five - today. let's take a step back and consider where we are five days | today. let's take a step back and i consider where we are five days into this war. 0ur defence correspondent has been looking closer at the map. the russians have made advances, but slower than expected. the most significant gains have been in the south. remember, one of russia's are the objectives was to create a land bridge from crimea and then expand their control towards the russian declared republics in donetsk and luhansk. they also made gains in the north—east, but, as yet, they've been unable to take the main cities there, like kharkiv. now, let's look at their advances from the north. russian forces are continuing their efforts to surround the capital kyiv, but again they are meeting fierce resistance.

last week, russia claimed that it had taken hostomel airport, but british military intelligence today said it is still being held by ukrainian forces. western officials believe the invasion so far is not going according to plan. brigadier general mark kimmitt is with us. among many senior army positions he served as assistant to the supreme allied commander europe; and then went on to become assistant secretary of state for political—military affairs, under george w bush. general kimmitt, good evening. the us assessment was that kyiv would fall within one to four days. we are outside that window now. this gives the ukrainian army some time. as a military planner, if you are writing ukrainians now, would you be telling them about the way to defend kyiv, and what preparations would you be making?— kyiv, and what preparations would you be making? well, if there is one thin the you be making? well, if there is one thing the russians _ you be making? well, if there is one thing the russians know _ you be making? well, if there is one

thing the russians know about, i you be making? well, if there is one thing the russians know about, it i you be making? well, if there is one thing the russians know about, it is| thing the russians know about, it is urban conflict. a note from both sides of the equation. they know how tough it is, how it is to the advantage for a defender to be inside the city, and they have had a lot of experience with fighting inside of cities, and it has been bloody, it has been tough. not simply in chechnya but in places such like stalingrad, they have a long history of this kind of operation. what i tell ukrainians? i would tell them first and foremost to get their families out of there. there is no way that if the russians come into that city they are going to spare anybody. women and children included. then i would suggest they do with the way that so many victors in defensive battles inside of cities have done, which is digging, dig tunnels between positions, use the buildings to your advantage, try to channelised the fighters as much as possible, ijust don't give up,

because if you give up their is not a chance you will be surviving the movement from your building to the prisoner of war camp.— prisoner of war camp. natalie was talkin: prisoner of war camp. natalie was talking about _ prisoner of war camp. natalie was talking about the _ prisoner of war camp. natalie was talking about the weapons - prisoner of war camp. natalie was talking about the weapons that i prisoner of war camp. natalie was | talking about the weapons that can supply by other european countries, it is flooding into the country. how difficult logistically is it when the russians had the air cover to get that from the board to where it is needed in these two big cities? it is very difficult, because regardless of whether these are nato vehicles, nato equipment, as soon as they go into an ukraine they are going to be a target for russian aircraft. you saw the pictures of the long russian convoy of three miles long, that is just the target environment for a couple of aeroplanes. it shows the total air superiority russians have at this point, so the answer is move at night, grievance small dispersed movements, but they have to give

that to the ukraine fighters. what that to the ukraine fighters. what su ort that to the ukraine fighters. what support both _ that to the ukraine fighters. what support both the _ that to the ukraine fighters. what support both the ukrainian officer to be getting? will they be getting intelligence on what is happening what order it is happening? i think the will, what order it is happening? i think they will, probably _ what order it is happening? i think they will, probably the _ what order it is happening? i think they will, probably the best i they will, probably the best intelligence is going to be coming from channels like cnn and yourself. a lot of intelligence is being provided right now through the public media, and you can be sure the nato and its partners will be providing as much as they can on the ground. flan providing as much as they can on the round. ., ., r' providing as much as they can on the round. ., ., ,~' i. ., ,., ground. can i ask you about president — ground. can i ask you about president putin's _ ground. can i ask you about president putin's state i ground. can i ask you about president putin's state of. ground. can i ask you about i president putin's state of mind? it has been talked about a lot over the weekend, given what you said about nuclear deterrence and putting his forces on high alert. do you think he is getting accurate information from the front?— he is getting accurate information from the front? probably not. there are not a lot — from the front? probably not. there are not a lot of _ from the front? probably not. there are not a lot of commanders - from the front? probably not. there are not a lot of commanders who i from the front? probably not. there i are not a lot of commanders who want to call back to vladimir putin and say, we are stuck five miles behind

the lines that you wanted us in by this time yesterday. that is not a way to get promoted. in fact, probably not a good way to keep either yourjob or your life. he is probably not getting good information, but it it really matters when you talk about how to fight this kind of conflict inside of ukraine. fight this kind of conflict inside of ukraine-— fight this kind of conflict inside of ukraine. ., , ., ., ., i. of ukraine. really good to get your inut. of ukraine. really good to get your in - ut. it's of ukraine. really good to get your input. it's interesting, _ of ukraine. really good to get your input. it's interesting, when - input. it's interesting, when you talk about the russian army, you think about it being a crack unit and sort of shock and awe going into ukraine, but clearly it has not been that, we don't need to be military planners to work that out. there have been real problems keeping logistics up with the advancing columns that are going into ukraine. yes, but we think of russia as being the huge country with a mighty population, but russia's population has been falling, and it is not actually a wealthy country. there are some extraordinarily wealthy people in russia, but russia is not

physically wealthy. its economy is not particularly large. it is going to suffer enormously from economic sanctions. i'm not a military expert, but militarily it does appear there has been a problem in terms of a second echelon of russian soldiers moving into secure lines of communication and resupply, and those have been exposed to turkish made drawings and other ukrainian defences, but we are still at the very early stages of this conflict, the fact that russia has not achieved its objectives as rapidly as they expected to does not mean that they are going to be sorted or prevented from achieving those objectives in the longer term, so i think one has to be very cautious about, you know, there is a desire for people to look for good news from the ukrainian point of view, thatis from the ukrainian point of view, that is wholly understandable, but i think that as i has to be tempted to

boot tempered by an awareness that things are likely to go much more difficult for ukrainian people before they get any easier. when orderin: before they get any easier. when ordering his _ before they get any easier. when ordering his troops _ before they get any easier. when ordering his troops into - before they get any easier. when ordering his troops into ukraine vladimir putin claimed it was for the benefit of ukrainian people. not sure anyone believe that, least of all ukrainians, and as the days go by the war is becoming a humanitarian disaster. these people are in south—east ukraine shouting at russian troops. as russian troops advanced, there are thousands of displaced people heading for the border with eastern europe. the un says more than half a million people have crossed so far. this report was sent from western ukraine. to the edge of desperation and beyond. in a bewildering crisis. the women and children of ukraine fleeing their

country. you will not be allowed, the policeman shouts to the men on the policeman shouts to the men on the stairwell. women and children only. tempers fray. back—and—forth go the arguments and please. the police move to help those allowed to board. the women and children at the move from the crowd on the stairs now so they can board the train. the police are outnumbered, but they are doing their best. i've seen them go down into the crowd is trying to calm people. it's very difficult, given the volatility of the situation. these are scenes that we are supposed to be consigned to history

in europe, many women being separated, families being broken up, tears and platforms. they are just desperate scenes. are we doing enoughin desperate scenes. are we doing enough in europe to ensure that they have a place to go and there is probably too much care in place for them? i probably too much care in place for them? ~ probably too much care in place for them? ,, ., , , probably too much care in place for them? ,, .,, , ., probably too much care in place for them? ~' , ., , them? i think measures are being taken. m them? i think measures are being taken- my own — them? i think measures are being taken. my own government today| taken. my own government today passed _ taken. my own government today passed a — taken. my own government today passed a decree, essentially, opening — passed a decree, essentially, opening borders to ukraine, i think other— opening borders to ukraine, i think other member states have, the war has unleashed a sense of solidarity which _ has unleashed a sense of solidarity which is _ has unleashed a sense of solidarity which is really playing out in all different — which is really playing out in all different domains. it is the humanitarian, the military talked about, _ humanitarian, the military talked about, it — humanitarian, the military talked about, it is — humanitarian, the military talked about, it is the political. i think the question really is, is older sufficient? that is, of course, the question which i don't think anyone really— question which i don't think anyone really has _ question which i don't think anyone really has an answer to. i think

what _ really has an answer to. i think what is — really has an answer to. i think what is clear is that we are really in this— what is clear is that we are really in this for— what is clear is that we are really in this for the long haul. this is not something that will be resolved in a ntatter— not something that will be resolved in a matter of days or weeks, even in a matter of days or weeks, even in the _ in a matter of days or weeks, even in the best— in a matter of days or weeks, even in the best of circumstances, which is one _ in the best of circumstances, which is one that — in the best of circumstances, which is one that ukrainian authorities hold _ is one that ukrainian authorities hold out, — is one that ukrainian authorities hold out, but even in the event they do fall, _ hold out, but even in the event they do fall, the — hold out, but even in the event they do fall, the war is not going to end _ do fall, the war is not going to end. ukrainians are not going to stay— end. ukrainians are not going to stay put — end. ukrainians are not going to stay put and simply accept an occupation, sol stay put and simply accept an occupation, so i think this wave of solidarity, — occupation, so i think this wave of solidarity, again, across all different— solidarity, again, across all different domains that we are seeing today, _ different domains that we are seeing today, is— different domains that we are seeing today, is really something we have today, is really something we have to uphold — today, is really something we have to uphold and accelerate over the months, perhaps even over the years ahead _ months, perhaps even over the years ahead. ., ,, . ., , ., , ahead. the home secretary here has re'ected ahead. the home secretary here has rejected demands _ ahead. the home secretary here has rejected demands that _ ahead. the home secretary here has rejected demands that she _ ahead. the home secretary here has rejected demands that she has i ahead. the home secretary here has rejected demands that she has had l rejected demands that she has had from 37 conservative mps to offer full visa waivers ukrainians. if i understand right, it's full visa waivers ukrainians. if i understand right, its immediate family members canjoin people understand right, its immediate family members can join people who are already settled here. that would be available to spouses, unmarried partners of at least two years,

parents or their children if one is under 18, parents or their children if one is under18, but parents or their children if one is under 18, but what she is saying is that normal security checks will have to take place because they are worried that russians might be trying to come in, agents of russia might be trying to come in. are we on the right side of this?— on the right side of this? well, look, the _ on the right side of this? well, look, the home _ on the right side of this? well, look, the home office - on the right side of this? well, look, the home office has i on the right side of this? well, look, the home office has a i look, the home office has a pathological inability to rise to the occasion, and that is consistent aspect of his behaviour over many years, over many different emergencies and crises, so in that senseit emergencies and crises, so in that sense it is not a surprise that it is dragging its feet. eventually, the current government line will not hold, and the public demands that it shifts. it is not a sustainable position, eventually they will get to position which is much the same as is an apparent in other countries, allowing ukrainians in for two or three years or whatever without visas, and eventually there will be tracked into doing the right thing, but they will forfeit any

political advantage in doing so because of the manner in which they've had to be dragged to that realisation. ., ~ they've had to be dragged to that realisation. ., ,, , ., , they've had to be dragged to that realisation-— they've had to be dragged to that realisation. ., ,, , ., , . ., realisation. thank you very much for our realisation. thank you very much for your company receiving, _ realisation. thank you very much for your company receiving, been i realisation. thank you very much for your company receiving, been great| your company receiving, been great having you on the programme. do come back. don't forget will we concentrate a lot more in ukraine in the next half hour. hello there. the last day of meteorological winter was a dull and wet one, particularly for most of england and wales, and some of the heaviest rain developed through the afternoon across the south of wales into the hills. ahead of that wet weather, though, at least we did have some brightness and some hazy sunshine for a while in the southeast corner of england. this was the radar picture from earlier, not much rain in the morning, certainly did get wetter from the west, though, during the afternoon, and that rain is continuing to push its way eastwards at the moment. by midnight, this is where most of the rain is. more towards east anglia in the southeast, it will stay cloudy and damp in the southeast of england and through the english channel all night. further north, though, some clearer skies, big range of temperatures come the end of the night as well. mild in that cloudy, damp weather in the southeast.

northern england, scotland, northern ireland, though, starting tuesday with a slight frost, —2 or —3 celsius. clearer skies underneath that area of high—pressure promising some early spring sunshine for tuesday for some. in the south, though, it is going to be cloudy, and we have still got this threat of some rain and drizzle. it may well come back in again across my southern parts of england, eventually arriving in south wales and into east anglia later too. but for the north midlands, north wales and northwards, we're going to have a fair bit of sunshine, a few early showers in the far north of scotland perhaps, but even after that frost, temperatures will reach nine or ten celsius. in the south, though, we've got that weather front bringing the low cloud, bringing the wet weather too, and that will push its way northwards overnight. into the clearer air, though, we've got in scotland, it's going to be a frosty start on wednesday, could be the coldest night of the week, minus —4, —5 and fog patches as well. further south, though, it's mild there, but it's dull and damp, the and it's mostly light rain and drizzle by this stage. moving northwards on wednesday into the central belt affecting northern ireland, northern england, further south, it may become a bit drier in the south of england

in particular, temperatures reach 11 celsius. for many northern areas, though, it's going to be a cooler day on wednesday with that cloudy damp weather moving in after that chilly start. and by the time we get to thursday, another band of rain is coming in from the atlantic, and that's moving very slowly eastwards. most of the wet weather, i think, on thursday will be across northern and western parts of the uk. it may improve in the afternoon in the southwest, and for much of the day, it will be dry in eastern parts of england, temperatures here probably reaching around 12 celsius. quite a bit chillier, though, i think for scotland, eight or nine celsius, and this is where we will see most of the rain during the day.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching context on bbc news. ukraine's major cities are under attack five days into president putin is a salt. in the capital more missile strikes for its residents to take shelter underground but russia's advance is slowed by fears ukrainian resistance. russia struggles to contain the financial meant meltdown imposed in recent days. as putin puts his country's nuclear forces on high alert, we'll look at whether the russian president would actually press the nuclear button. we will look at what can be done. director of italy's institute for an

international affairs. national adder and columnist. russia is disappearing into the economic dumping sectors with gas problem. it's a third major oil company to announce such an exit in as many days. cutting off russia from nearly 630 billion dollars in financial reserves. from this point on finances in the united states and european union will be banned from trading with russia's central bank. sanctions also apply to russia's finance ministry in a sovereign fund. this is the uk foreign minister, lizz truss. we are determined to go much, much further. we want a situation where they can't access their funds, their

trade flow, their ships can dock and the planes can't land. putin is isolated. no one is willing to back his war of choice. in recent days are spoken to my counterparts in more than 20 countries around the world. yesterday i met g—7 foreign ministers where we were joined by ukraine's brave foreign minister, my friend dmytro kuleba. everyone is clear putin must lose. the impact of sanctions has been immediate. russia's currency, the rouble, has fallen 30% against the us dollar. a record low that will push up prices across russia. new sanctions on russia's central bank will prevent it joining me from washington isjulia friedlander, a senior fellow at the american think—tank the atlantic council. she also served as a senior policy adviser for europe in the us treasury. is there any precedent for the sanctions we've seen? ila. is there any precedent for the sanctions we've seen? no. i've been floored over — sanctions we've seen? no. i've been floored over the _ sanctions we've seen? no. i've been floored over the past _ sanctions we've seen? no. i've been floored over the past couple - sanctions we've seen? no. i've been floored over the past couple of i floored over the past couple of days, the amount of coordination is

been between the united states, uk and the european union. an unprecedented set of sanctions that have been rolled out so quickly and really no precedent for this in the history of stations. compared to what we've done in iran and venezuela, these measures are in russia are hitting hard for that we went from zero to 60. we went from individual designations of what was considered perhaps the hardest measures possible which are restrictions on foreign exchange reserves in the central bank. i’m reserves in the central bank. i'm confused- _ reserves in the central bank. i'm confused. last _ reserves in the central bank. i'm confused. last week we were talking about the russian economy begins tension proof. today were discussing whether there might soon be a default on russian sovereign debt? was our debt because that wasn't met. we didn't anticipate we will get to go this far this fast. this is an assault on the fortress russia after 2014, is an assault on the fortress russia after2014, russia is an assault on the fortress russia after 2014, russia was smart and said well, organisation improve our economy by shoring up our foreign exchange reserve id dollar rising

and buying a lot of gold. what we've seen over the past 24 hours is actually with the resolve of the west that turned into largely a myth. these assets and if vaporised overnight. it is triggered a currency crisis and potentially also spill over into the debt markets. this is a reflection also of the debt and equity restrictions that the us and its partners also placed just last week for that we are taking essentially every financial and economic letter we have in using it at once. ., ., ~' and economic letter we have in using it at once. ., ,, it at once. looking at the shell announcement, _ it at once. looking at the shell announcement, i'm wondering | it at once. looking at the shell i announcement, i'm wondering if it at once. looking at the shell - announcement, i'm wondering if there is a tipping point, whether companies start to sell section. if you were a shipping company tonight and you are looking at freight prices to transport from russia, you might think twice, right? absolutely. this is what in the sanctions world we referred to as a chilling effect. it divides into two parts, first is anticipation of future is i will lose my return on investment is suddenly my government is good to me i can't do this

anymore. the second is bad business. am i going to get a return on this investment, is it a healthy prospect? that's why you see the petroleum companies shell, bp, this norwegian state oil company shipping saying we are knocking to engage in this any more, working to pull out of ourjoint ventures. there's also an insurance questions. insurance markets are also pulling out of russia. this is a big uk business. it's making russia into a persona non grata on the economic stage. edward welcome to the program. i want to talk about president biden and the way he is discussed sanctions and cajole the europeans into going the way he wanted them to go. he showed patients and the face of intense criticism. did go. he showed patients and the face of intense criticism.— of intense criticism. did you get it riuht? of intense criticism. did you get it riht? i of intense criticism. did you get it right? i think _ of intense criticism. did you get it right? i think so _ of intense criticism. did you get it right? i think so far— of intense criticism. did you get it right? i think so far the _ of intense criticism. did you get it| right? i think so far the consensus is that— right? i think so far the consensus is that he — right? i think so far the consensus is that he is— right? i think so far the consensus is that he is getting it right. he was i _ is that he is getting it right. he was i think— is that he is getting it right. he was i think quite strong last summer

by the _ was i think quite strong last summer by the criticism from americans of european — by the criticism from americans of european partners of the way in which _ european partners of the way in which the — european partners of the way in which the us withdrew from afghanistan, the lack of consultation with europeans. it seems — consultation with europeans. it seems as— consultation with europeans. it seems as though that lesson has been learned _ seems as though that lesson has been learned. the consultations with europe — learned. the consultations with europe have been exemplary, i've not heard _ europe have been exemplary, i've not heard one _ europe have been exemplary, i've not heard one complaint from across the atlantic _ heard one complaint from across the atlantic. biden has shown a temperamental calmness that might be frustrating to hawks in washington but is _ frustrating to hawks in washington but is genuinely playing very well globally~ — but is genuinely playing very well globally. for example, when putin put his— globally. for example, when putin put his nuclear forces on high alert. — put his nuclear forces on high alert, biden could have done a richard — alert, biden could have done a richard nixon and moved to devcon three _ richard nixon and moved to devcon three and — richard nixon and moved to devcon three. and part of american forces on high _ three. and part of american forces on high alert. he didn't even consider— on high alert. he didn't even consider that. apparently he decided best to _ consider that. apparently he decided best to remain calm, keep it simple

and speak— best to remain calm, keep it simple and speak out with a soft voice by carrying _ and speak out with a soft voice by carrying a — and speak out with a soft voice by carrying a big stick i think biden is getting — carrying a big stick i think biden is getting quite high marks. wonder is getting quite high marks. i wonder if that is something to do with the way he was trained as a senator during the 80s and the height of the cold war. of course egos an awful long way back, joe biden. can i talk about fuel? 0bviously, biden. can i talk about fuel? obviously, there is a real concern for the country, you are in italy. they depend. like i remember when i lived in italy and there was a problem with gas coming across ukraine it because you real problems for italy. is there a security risk now that putin closes the taps? what now that putin closes the taps? what he could do essentially _ now that putin closes the taps? what he could do essentially invoke the swift _ he could do essentially invoke the swift decision— he could do essentially invoke the swift decision that _ he could do essentially invoke the swift decision that was _ he could do essentially invoke the swift decision that was taken. i he could do essentially invoke the swift decision that was taken. sol swift decision that was taken. so the inclusion— swift decision that was taken. so the inclusion of— swift decision that was taken. so the inclusion of swift _ swift decision that was taken. so the inclusion of swift in - swift decision that was taken. so the inclusion of swift in the i the inclusion of swift in the sanctions _ the inclusion of swift in the sanctions to— the inclusion of swift in the sanctions to interact - the inclusion of swift in the i sanctions to interact long—term contracts _ sanctions to interact long—term contracts. this— sanctions to interact long—term contracts. this is— sanctions to interact long—term contracts. this is something i sanctions to interact long—term. contracts. this is something that the government— contracts. this is something that the government is— contracts. this is something that the government is not— contracts. this is something thatl the government is not necessarily

expecting — the government is not necessarily expecting but _ the government is not necessarily expecting but certainly _ the government is not necessarily expecting but certainly part - the government is not necessarily expecting but certainly part of- the government is not necessarily expecting but certainly part of the picture _ expecting but certainly part of the picture today— expecting but certainly part of the picture. today our _ expecting but certainly part of the picture. today our foreign - expecting but certainly part of thel picture. today our foreign minister was in _ picture. today our foreign minister was in algeria. _ picture. today our foreign minister was in algeria, there _ picture. today our foreign minister was in algeria, there are _ picture. today our foreign minister was in algeria, there are talks- picture. today our foreign minister was in algeria, there are talks on. was in algeria, there are talks on going _ was in algeria, there are talks on going forward _ was in algeria, there are talks on going forward doubling _ was in algeria, there are talks on going forward doubling the - was in algeria, there are talks on| going forward doubling the transit adriatic— going forward doubling the transit adriatic pipeline. _ going forward doubling the transit adriatic pipeline. there _ going forward doubling the transit adriatic pipeline. there has- going forward doubling the transit adriatic pipeline. there has beenl adriatic pipeline. there has been not ekactly— adriatic pipeline. there has been not exactly good _ adriatic pipeline. there has been not exactly good for _ adriatic pipeline. there has been not exactly good for the - adriatic pipeline. there has been not exactly good for the climate i adriatic pipeline. there has been. not exactly good for the climate but there _ not exactly good for the climate but there has— not exactly good for the climate but there has been— not exactly good for the climate but there has been an _ not exactly good for the climate but there has been an authorisation i not exactly good for the climate but| there has been an authorisation also if necessary — there has been an authorisation also if necessary to — there has been an authorisation also if necessary to restart _ there has been an authorisation also if necessary to restart coal _ there has been an authorisation also if necessary to restart coal plants i if necessary to restart coal plants in this— if necessary to restart coal plants in this period _ if necessary to restart coal plants in this period as _ if necessary to restart coal plants in this period as well— if necessary to restart coal plants in this period as well as - if necessary to restart coal plants in this period as well as start i in this period as well as start drilling — in this period as well as start drilling gas— in this period as well as start drilling gas in— in this period as well as start drilling gas in the _ in this period as well as start drilling gas in the adriatic. in this period as well as start l drilling gas in the adriatic sea. in this period as well as start i drilling gas in the adriatic sea. so the government— drilling gas in the adriatic sea. so the government is— drilling gas in the adriatic sea. so the government is preparing i drilling gas in the adriatic sea. so the government is preparing for. the government is preparing for this _ the government is preparing for this it — the government is preparing for this it is — the government is preparing for this it is not _ the government is preparing for this. it is not something... i the government is preparing for this. it is not something... as l the government is preparing for. this. it is not something... as you know, _ this. it is not something... as you know. gas— this. it is not something... as you know, gas transactions _ this. it is not something... as you know, gas transactions can - this. it is not something... as you . know, gas transactions can continue but i know, gas transactions can continue but i think— know, gas transactions can continue but i think there _ know, gas transactions can continue but i think there is _ know, gas transactions can continue but i think there is an— know, gas transactions can continue but i think there is an expectation i but i think there is an expectation this may— but i think there is an expectation this may end _ but i think there is an expectation this may end up— but i think there is an expectation this may end up being _ but i think there is an expectation this may end up being something| but i think there is an expectation i this may end up being something that russia itself— this may end up being something that russia itself and _ this may end up being something that russia itself and drops _ this may end up being something that russia itself and drops in— this may end up being something that russia itself and drops in the - russia itself and drops in the coming days— russia itself and drops in the coming days or— russia itself and drops in the coming days or weeks. - russia itself and drops in the coming days or weeks. interesting ve much coming days or weeks. interesting very much on _ coming days or weeks. interesting very much on the _ coming days or weeks. interesting very much on the right _ coming days or weeks. interesting very much on the right page i coming days or weeks. interesting | very much on the right page saying we need to wean ourselves off russian gas and oil. if i let you 90, russian gas and oil. if i let you go, i want to talk about china.

julia, is it possible that china could fill the void? in julia, is it possible that china could fill the void?— julia, is it possible that china could fill the void? in a limited fashion. china _ could fill the void? in a limited fashion. china holds _ could fill the void? in a limited fashion. china holds about - could fill the void? in a limited fashion. china holds about 13%l could fill the void? in a limited i fashion. china holds about 1396 of fashion. china holds about 13% of these foreign exchange reserves. and could leverage them against russia essentially buy them back. i think that the russians and the chinese have a little bit of a type rope to walk here. if i were a chinese government official i would say, why would i help an economy that is essentially on the brink of collapse and must have extreme political incentive here? we've seen actions on the un the chinese are not necessarily of observing russian actions with sympathy. they are telling the line a little bit rhetorically. there are limited fashions in which the chinese can jump fashions in which the chinese can jump in and by purchasing agreements and energy markets. you could back to fill certain elements of us and western export control restrictions. i would really like to emphasise

that from a chinese economic advantage perspective it might not be the right moment when you're looking at a potential sovereign default to say, we are going to play the role of the imf.— the role of the imf. quite so. interesting — the role of the imf. quite so. interesting if— the role of the imf. quite so. interesting if you _ the role of the imf. quite so. interesting if you are - the role of the imf. quite so. | interesting if you are vladimir putin, certainly playing second fiddle to china, that's certainly not what he wants. thank you. the un was set the scene moscow's ambassador to the un was interrupting by his mobile phone. would you allow me just a second? i need to answer this call, please. he then put his phone away and told the reporters what he just heard. that reporters what he 'ust heard. that us authorities — reporters what he just heard. twat us authorities have undertaken another hostile action against the russian mission to united nations telling us that they are announcing

12 people from the russian mission persona non grata and demanding that they will leave by the 7th of march. coming at them at all fronts at the moment. just wondering how you feel about ambassadors being sent home from the un general assembly. we need to offer a there. there has to be some diplomatic work that is done however appalling we think this war is. j however appalling we think this war is. , , �* .., however appalling we think this war is. , , �* . ., , . ~ however appalling we think this war is. i guess biden can pick up the phone and _ is. i guess biden can pick up the phone and talk— is. i guess biden can pick up the phone and talk to _ is. i guess biden can pick up the phone and talk to putin - is. i guess biden can pick up the phone and talk to putin directly| is. i guess biden can pick up the i phone and talk to putin directly but the more _ phone and talk to putin directly but the more diplomats we expel the more these meetings get canceled. the secretary of state was due to meet lavrov _ secretary of state was due to meet lavrov at _ secretary of state was due to meet lavrov at his russian counterpart later_ lavrov at his russian counterpart later this — lavrov at his russian counterpart later this week and he cancelled that over the weekend. the more that these _ that over the weekend. the more that these lakes _ that over the weekend. the more that these lakes are cut off the more the feeling _ these lakes are cut off the more the feeling is _ these lakes are cut off the more the feeling is that putin is going to -et feeling is that putin is going to get filtered information that stokes his worldview which i think credibly many—

his worldview which i think credibly many of— his worldview which i think credibly many of us — his worldview which i think credibly many of us think is increasingly paranoid — many of us think is increasingly paranoid and unhinged. and that diplomatic off ramp you mentioned -ets diplomatic off ramp you mentioned gets narrower and narrower and murkier— gets narrower and narrower and murkier and murkier. gets narrower and narrower and murkierand murkier. ithink gets narrower and narrower and murkier and murkier. i think that the prospect of china in reference to what _ the prospect of china in reference to what julia was the prospect of china in reference to whatjulia wasjust the prospect of china in reference to what julia was just saying, china playing _ to what julia was just saying, china playing some kind of moderating role is something that's going to be explored — is something that's going to be explored more in the coming days. yes, _ explored more in the coming days. yes, crucially important. natalie, you've travelled the world with the foreign policy chief of europe. you know how important these talks build up know how important these talks build up momentum. lavrov was supposed to be in switzerland today and suddenly couldn't fly into switzerland. it reminds me of the former president said the other day, we can look at each other through binoculars in the sight of a gun but that's not going to find a solution.— to find a solution. yes. i think the difficulty now _ to find a solution. yes. i think the

difficulty now is _ to find a solution. yes. i think the difficulty now is firstly, _ to find a solution. yes. i think the difficulty now is firstly, it - to find a solution. yes. i think the difficulty now is firstly, it has - difficulty now is firstly, it has become _ difficulty now is firstly, it has become increasingly - difficulty now is firstly, it has. become increasingly clear that there is only— become increasingly clear that there is only one _ become increasingly clear that there is only one nran— become increasingly clear that there is only one man that _ become increasingly clear that there is only one man that takes - become increasingly clear that there is only one man that takes decisionl is only one man that takes decision and that— is only one man that takes decision and that one—man _ is only one man that takes decision and that one—man doesn't - is only one man that takes decision and that one—man doesn't exactly. and that one—man doesn't exactly listen _ and that one—man doesn't exactly listen to— and that one—man doesn't exactly listen to anyone _ and that one—man doesn't exactly listen to anyone around _ and that one—man doesn't exactly listen to anyone around him. - and that one—man doesn't exactly. listen to anyone around him. there is a general— listen to anyone around him. there is a general questioning _ listen to anyone around him. there is a general questioning as - listen to anyone around him. there is a general questioning as to - listen to anyone around him. there is a general questioning as to the l is a general questioning as to the usefulness— is a general questioning as to the usefulness of— is a general questioning as to the usefulness of those _ is a general questioning as to the usefulness of those diplomatic i usefulness of those diplomatic contacts — usefulness of those diplomatic contacts 0n— usefulness of those diplomatic contacts. on top _ usefulness of those diplomatic contacts. on top of _ usefulness of those diplomatic contacts. on top of this, - usefulness of those diplomatic contacts. on top of this, the l usefulness of those diplomatic - contacts. on top of this, the added difficulty— contacts. on top of this, the added difficulty of — contacts. on top of this, the added difficulty of talking _ contacts. on top of this, the added difficulty of talking about _ contacts. on top of this, the added difficulty of talking about what - difficulty of talking about what exactly — difficulty of talking about what exactly as _ difficulty of talking about what exactly as war _ difficulty of talking about what exactly as war is _ difficulty of talking about what exactly as war is raging - difficulty of talking about what exactly as war is raging in - difficulty of talking about what - exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty— exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty is _ exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty is where _ exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty is where as _ exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty is where as of - exactly as war is raging in ukraine? the difficulty is where as of today. the difficulty is where as of today that seems — the difficulty is where as of today that seems to _ the difficulty is where as of today that seems to be _ the difficulty is where as of today that seems to be an— the difficulty is where as of today that seems to be an avenue - the difficulty is where as of today| that seems to be an avenue which is completely— that seems to be an avenue which is completely closed _ that seems to be an avenue which is completely closed off, _ that seems to be an avenue which is completely closed off, no _ that seems to be an avenue which is completely closed off, no one - that seems to be an avenue which is completely closed off, no one could| completely closed off, no one could deny the _ completely closed off, no one could deny the fact — completely closed off, no one could deny the fact that _ completely closed off, no one could deny the fact that at _ completely closed off, no one could deny the fact that at some - completely closed off, no one could deny the fact that at some point - deny the fact that at some point that is— deny the fact that at some point that is indeed _ deny the fact that at some point that is indeed where _ deny the fact that at some point that is indeed where we - deny the fact that at some point that is indeed where we have i deny the fact that at some point that is indeed where we have to| deny the fact that at some point i that is indeed where we have to go back that is indeed where we have to go hack to the — that is indeed where we have to go back to. the risk— that is indeed where we have to go back to. the risk really— that is indeed where we have to go back to. the risk really is - that is indeed where we have to go back to. the risk really is that - back to. the risk really is that burning — back to. the risk really is that burning all— back to. the risk really is that burning all bridges, _ back to. the risk really is that burning all bridges, is - back to. the risk really is that burning all bridges, is china l back to. the risk really is that l burning all bridges, is china get back to. the risk really is that - burning all bridges, is china get a step into — burning all bridges, is china get a step into that _ burning all bridges, is china get a step into that void, _ burning all bridges, is china get a step into that void, or _ burning all bridges, is china get a step into that void, or other- step into that void, or other countries _ step into that void, or other countries going _ step into that void, or other countries going to - step into that void, or other countries going to be - step into that void, or other. countries going to be stepping step into that void, or other- countries going to be stepping into that void? — countries going to be stepping into that void? from _ countries going to be stepping into that void? from azerbaijan - countries going to be stepping into that void? from azerbaijan to - that void? from azerbaijan to turkey. — that void? from azerbaijan to turkey. all— that void? from azerbaijan to turkey, all the _ that void? from azerbaijan to turkey, all the way— that void? from azerbaijan to turkey, all the way to - that void? from azerbaijan to turkey, all the way to china. i that void? from azerbaijan to i turkey, all the way to china. we don't _ turkey, all the way to china. we don't have —

turkey, all the way to china. we don't have an _ turkey, all the way to china. we don't have an answer— turkey, all the way to china. we don't have an answer to - don't have an answer to that question _ don't have an answer to that question. what _ don't have an answer to that question. what is _ don't have an answer to that. question. what is increasingly don't have an answer to that - question. what is increasingly clear those _ question. what is increasingly clear those avenues _ question. what is increasingly clear those avenues are _ question. what is increasingly clear those avenues are increasingly- those avenues are increasingly closed — those avenues are increasingly closed. �* ., . ., . , closed. another concern for the west is moscovfs — closed. another concern for the west is moscow's military _ closed. another concern for the west is moscow's military doctrine - closed. another concern for the west is moscow's military doctrine allows l is moscow's military doctrine allows it to end the conflict is a part escalation to de—escalate strategy. when president putin said this no question alarm bells were ringing and western capitals. i'm ordering the minister of defence and the chief of the general staff to put the strategic nuclear forces on special alert. mr putin told defence chiefs his move was prompted by so called "aggressive statements" from the west — just for clarity that is president putin escalating the nuclear threat over political rhetoric. the us immediately condemned it, calling the decision "unacceptable". amid all this talk of nuclear weapons, there is an important distinction to make. strategic nuclear weapons are probably those you are more familiar with: weapons to be used on targets far away with the ability to wreak widespread

destruction across enormous areas. tactical nuclear weapons — are designed for use in battlefield situations at much closer range. they are smaller than strategic nuclear weapons but still they cause enormous destruction. experts say these would be more likely be used inside ukraine. there is a clear distinction between these two types of weapons, but not really any distinction on how the other side would consider their use. even the russians believe a nuclear strike, regardless of whether it was tactical or strategic ould be the start of a much greater nuclear conflagration. let's bring in pavel podvig, one of the world's leading experts on russian nuclear forces. lovely to have you on the program. what does that announcement that president putin made over the weekend, what does it change in terms of the command structure? we don't terms of the command structure? , don't know exactly, of course. but it does appear that it changes the

configuration of the command control system in the way that makes it more robust and less vulnerable to any potential intervention. so we haven't seen and the united states just confirmed however today that the united states doesn't see any movement of actual weapon systems, that would indicate some physical changes in a strategic posture. it does appear that the changes are not as profound as it appeared at ist. today the administer for defence in russia reported that from now on, following the order, all the combat

crews that are on duty are heavily reinforced. which means basically, it longer or shorter working hours, more personnel and things like that. but it is important that there were no visible things like dispersal of mobile missiles.— no visible things like dispersal of mobile missiles. that's reassuring. we are not — mobile missiles. that's reassuring. we are not seeing _ mobile missiles. that's reassuring. we are not seeing anything - mobile missiles. that's reassuring. we are not seeing anything on - mobile missiles. that's reassuring. we are not seeing anything on the| we are not seeing anything on the ground that should cause us concern. what we are saying, if i'm right in what you're saying, if there was a strike on the kremlin which is been suggested by no one, if there was a strike in the kremlin they would be now a communication structure for them to be able to fire their own weapons. is them to be able to fire their own wea ons. , ., ., them to be able to fire their own weaons. , . . ,, �* them to be able to fire their own weaons. , ., ., y., �* weapons. is that what you're saying? yes. it's a weapons. is that what you're saying? yes- it's a safety _ weapons. is that what you're saying? yes. it's a safety mechanism - weapons. is that what you're saying? yes. it's a safety mechanism that - weapons. is that what you're saying? yes. it's a safety mechanism that is i yes. it's a safety mechanism that is built into soviet and russian

system. in signal of course that course that announcement and the signal is to communicate to the united states that you don't dare attack us because the attack would be futile anyway. even if you are successful in decapitating the president. in a sense it's almost... i shouldn't say that. it's not as negative a development as it may appear. although i should say, the very fact that nuclear weapons can already complex situation is quite worrying. already complex situation is quite wor in. , already complex situation is quite wor inc. , . v already complex situation is quite wor inc. , worrying. yes. that's the point. comina worrying. yes. that's the point. coming back —

worrying. yes. that's the point. coming back to _ worrying. yes. that's the point. coming back to the _ worrying. yes. that's the point. coming back to the point - worrying. yes. that's the point. coming back to the point we - worrying. yes. that's the point. | coming back to the point we are making earlier about the experience thatjoe biden has through his many years sitting in the senate through the cold war, he didn't react, we weren't going up the deaf, ladder and he is to be praise for that. is and he is to be praise for that. is unique? yes, absolutely. ithink if there'd _ unique? yes, absolutely. ithink if there'd been more evidence of the upper— there'd been more evidence of the upper is _ there'd been more evidence of the upper is asian of russian strategic loop clear— upper is asian of russian strategic loop clear weapons that may have been _ loop clear weapons that may have been or— loop clear weapons that may have been or will be a different reaction from _ been or will be a different reaction from united states was up but i think it — from united states was up but i think it was interpreted initially and it— think it was interpreted initially and it is— think it was interpreted initially and it is so far been borne out by the lack— and it is so far been borne out by the lack of— and it is so far been borne out by the lack of movement on the ground as a performative moment reinforced by the _ as a performative moment reinforced by the fact— as a performative moment reinforced by the fact that i think for the first— by the fact that i think for the first time _ by the fact that i think for the first time in history a country put its forces — first time in history a country put its forces on nuclear alert on live tv. its forces on nuclear alert on live tv as _ its forces on nuclear alert on live tv as a — its forces on nuclear alert on live tv as a sort _ its forces on nuclear alert on live tv. as a sort of pr statement for the world — tv. as a sort of pr statement for the world. the russian military had sitting _ the world. the russian military had sitting at— the world. the russian military had sitting at the end of the table looking —

sitting at the end of the table looking rather shell—shocked by the nature _ looking rather shell—shocked by the nature of— looking rather shell—shocked by the nature of which this was announced. ithink— nature of which this was announced. i think the _ nature of which this was announced. i think the focus here for the time being. _ i think the focus here for the time being. in— i think the focus here for the time being, in the absence of further nuclear— being, in the absence of further nuclear escalation is the expectation that the ground war in ukraine _ expectation that the ground war in ukraine is— expectation that the ground war in ukraine is going to looks like it will be — ukraine is going to looks like it will be turning much darker. we've as you _ will be turning much darker. we've as you know — will be turning much darker. we've as you know a much tougher ukrainian resistance, _ as you know a much tougher ukrainian resistance, something that putin wasn't _ resistance, something that putin wasn't banking on, he thought he was going _ wasn't banking on, he thought he was going to _ wasn't banking on, he thought he was going to be _ wasn't banking on, he thought he was going to be a bit of a cakewalk. we now have _ going to be a bit of a cakewalk. we now have the really heavy machinery, the artillery. — now have the really heavy machinery, the artillery, the tank, the armoured vehicles moving towards the bil armoured vehicles moving towards the big cities— armoured vehicles moving towards the big cities put got a 17 mile long convoy heading for care. this isn't i don't _ convoy heading for care. this isn't ldon't think— convoy heading for care. this isn't i don't think performative. —— cchheeeerrll. i don't think performative. -- cchheeeerrll._ i don't think performative. -- cchheeeerrll. ., ., , , , cchheeeerrll. no. the other issue is the ltelarusian _ cchheeeerrll. no. the other issue is the belarusian president _ cchheeeerrll. no. the other issue is the belarusian president says - cchheeeerrll. no. the other issue is the belarusian president says they i the belarusian president says they had a referendum which means the russian nuclear weapons could return

to bella roof. also we know belarusian fighters could be joining the fighting in ukraine —— belarus. are you hear them talking that the same sanctions will be applied to president lukashenko? yes. same sanctions will be applied to president lukashenko?— same sanctions will be applied to president lukashenko? yes, i think this is very — president lukashenko? yes, i think this is very much _ president lukashenko? yes, i think this is very much the _ president lukashenko? yes, i think this is very much the idea. the - this is very much the idea. the thing i— this is very much the idea. the thing i want _ this is very much the idea. the thing i want to— this is very much the idea. the thing i want to add _ this is very much the idea. the thing i want to add here - this is very much the idea. the thing i want to add here is this| thing i want to add here is this conflict — thing i want to add here is this conflict is _ thing i want to add here is this conflict is really _ thing i want to add here is this conflict is really playing - thing i want to add here is this conflict is really playing out. thing i want to add here is this conflict is really playing out to| conflict is really playing out to different — conflict is really playing out to different levels. _ conflict is really playing out to different levels. the - conflict is really playing out to different levels. the questionl conflict is really playing out to i different levels. the question is where _ different levels. the question is where with— different levels. the question is where with these _ different levels. the question is where with these two _ different levels. the question is where with these two levels - different levels. the question is| where with these two levels god different levels. the question is- where with these two levels god for bid going _ where with these two levels god for bid going to— where with these two levels god for bid going to merge _ where with these two levels god for bid going to merge into— where with these two levels god for bid going to merge into one? - where with these two levels god for bid going to merge into one? you . bid going to merge into one? you have _ bid going to merge into one? you have a _ bid going to merge into one? you have a very— bid going to merge into one? you have a very real— bid going to merge into one? you have a very real war _ bid going to merge into one? you have a very real war which - bid going to merge into one? you have a very real war which is - have a very real war which is ongoing _ have a very real war which is ongoing in— have a very real war which is ongoing in ukraine - have a very real war which is ongoing in ukraine and - have a very real war which is ongoing in ukraine and then| have a very real war which is - ongoing in ukraine and then there is this threat— ongoing in ukraine and then there is this threat of— ongoing in ukraine and then there is this threat of a — ongoing in ukraine and then there is this threat of a much _ ongoing in ukraine and then there is this threat of a much broader- this threat of a much broader confrontation _ this threat of a much broader confrontation which - this threat of a much broader confrontation which is - this threat of a much broader confrontation which is taking| this threat of a much broader- confrontation which is taking place at the _ confrontation which is taking place at the moment— confrontation which is taking place at the moment very _ confrontation which is taking place at the moment very much - confrontation which is taking place at the moment very much throughj confrontation which is taking place i at the moment very much through pr and communication. _ at the moment very much through pr and communication. and _ at the moment very much through pr and communication. and it _ at the moment very much through pr and communication. and it is - at the moment very much through pr and communication. and it is about. and communication. and it is about the threats— and communication. and it is about the threats to — and communication. and it is about the threats to sweden _ and communication. and it is about the threats to sweden and - and communication. and it is about the threats to sweden and finland. | the threats to sweden and finland. it's about— the threats to sweden and finland. it's about the — the threats to sweden and finland. it's about the nuclear _ the threats to sweden and finland. it's about the nuclear high - the threats to sweden and finland. it's about the nuclear high alert. i it's about the nuclear high alert. it's about the nuclear high alert. it is about—

it's about the nuclear high alert. it is about the _ it's about the nuclear high alert. it is about the referendum - it's about the nuclear high alert. it is about the referendum in - it is about the referendum in belarus _ it is about the referendum in belarus. this _ it is about the referendum in belarus. this really- it is about the referendum in belarus. this really speaks l it is about the referendum in| belarus. this really speaks of it is about the referendum in . belarus. this really speaks of a conflict — belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that— belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that is _ belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that is really— belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that is really not - belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that is really not i, - belarus. this really speaks of a conflict that is really not i, it i conflict that is really not i, it simply— conflict that is really not i, it simply russia's— conflict that is really not i, it simply russia's invasion i conflict that is really not i, it simply russia's invasion of. conflict that is really not i, it - simply russia's invasion of ukraine but its— simply russia's invasion of ukraine but it's really— simply russia's invasion of ukraine but it's really a _ simply russia's invasion of ukraine but it's really a much— simply russia's invasion of ukraine but it's really a much broader- but it's really a much broader conflagration— but it's really a much broader conflagration between- but it's really a much broader conflagration between russia but it's really a much broader- conflagration between russia and the west _ conflagration between russia and the west. a, conflagration between russia and the west. ., ., ., ~ , ., west. okay. pavel podvig thank you ve much west. okay. pavel podvig thank you very much for— west. okay. pavel podvig thank you very much for coming on _ west. okay. pavel podvig thank you very much for coming on the - very much for coming on the programme and giving my expertise and setting my nerves a little calmer. thank you. i don't know if you know but the presidents black box for that nuclear cold is known as a football. after a weekend of muddled messaging from the governing bodies of world football, a statement tonight that russian football clubs and the national teams will be suspended from all competitions. fifa and uefa confirmed they will remain banned "until further notice". it means the russian men's team will not play their world cup play—off matches next month and will be not in qatar and the women's team have been banned from this summer's

euro 22 competition. i don't know why it takes these great sporting bodies to make a decision that we only was inevitable.— decision that we only was inevitable. ., �*, ., , ., inevitable. that's a good question. it's worth remembering, _ inevitable. that's a good question. it's worth remembering, there's i inevitable. that's a good question. it's worth remembering, there's a | it's worth remembering, there's a lot of— it's worth remembering, there's a lot of controversy about how affective _ lot of controversy about how affective sanctions are particularly if they're — affective sanctions are particularly if they're aimed at a leader who is in different— if they're aimed at a leader who is in different to the suffering is putin— in different to the suffering is putin might be in this instance. we should _ putin might be in this instance. we should remember the one perhaps on mixed example of sanctions being really _ mixed example of sanctions being really of _ mixed example of sanctions being really of effective is south africa, apartheid — really of effective is south africa, apartheid south africa in the 70s and 80s — apartheid south africa in the 70s and 80s. and south africans himself, white _ and 80s. and south africans himself, white south _ and 80s. and south africans himself, white south africans themselves said the sporting band was what really had been — the sporting band was what really had been the hardest which is what they resented the most. you're right, _ they resented the most. you're right, uefa and other sporting bodies — right, uefa and other sporting bodies have taken their time. i think— bodies have taken their time. i think what's been really striking as

an information war, is the attitude of football— an information war, is the attitude of football crowds, not just an information war, is the attitude of football crowds, notjust in england — of football crowds, notjust in england but across europe. extraordinary waving ukrainian flags, — extraordinary waving ukrainian flags, singing ukrainian anthems, the sharing of ukrainian players. this is— the sharing of ukrainian players. this is more powerful than some of the other— this is more powerful than some of the other sanctions. | this is more powerful than some of the other sanctions.— the other sanctions. i saw some ictures, the other sanctions. i saw some pictures. i _ the other sanctions. i saw some pictures. i saw _ the other sanctions. i saw some pictures, i saw pictures - the other sanctions. i saw some pictures, i saw pictures last i the other sanctions. i saw some l pictures, i saw pictures last night from portugal, one of ukrainian players coming onto the pitch. it's extraordinary how supporters actually rallied around the ukrainians.— actually rallied around the ukrainians. ~ , ,., , ~' ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why _ ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why this _ ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why this is _ ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why this is so _ ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why this is so powerful i ukrainians. absolutely. i think the reason why this is so powerful is l ukrainians. absolutely. i think the l reason why this is so powerful is on one hand _ reason why this is so powerful is on one hand it's— reason why this is so powerful is on one hand it's a _ reason why this is so powerful is on one hand it's a show— reason why this is so powerful is on one hand it's a show of— reason why this is so powerful is on one hand it's a show of solidarity. one hand it's a show of solidarity with ukrainians _ one hand it's a show of solidarity with ukrainians but _ one hand it's a show of solidarity with ukrainians but also - one hand it's a show of solidarity with ukrainians but also becausej with ukrainians but also because let's not— with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, _ with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, this _ with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, this is _ with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, this is not - with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, this is not a i with ukrainians but also because let's not forget, this is not a warj let's not forget, this is not a war which _ let's not forget, this is not a war which is — let's not forget, this is not a war which is particularly— let's not forget, this is not a war which is particularly popular- let's not forget, this is not a warj which is particularly popular with the russian _ which is particularly popular with the russian public— which is particularly popular with the russian public itself. - which is particularly popular with the russian public itself. i- which is particularly popular with the russian public itself. i thinkl the russian public itself. i think the russian public itself. i think the effect, _ the russian public itself. i think the effect, had _ the russian public itself. i think the effect, had this— the russian public itself. i think the effect, had this really- the russian public itself. i think the effect, had this really had . the russian public itself. i think. the effect, had this really had been a war—

the effect, had this really had been a war for— the effect, had this really had been a war for russians _ the effect, had this really had been a war for russians believed - the effect, had this really had been a war for russians believed and i the effect, had this really had been a war for russians believed and it i a war for russians believed and it probably would _ a war for russians believed and it probably would have _ a war for russians believed and it probably would have led - a war for russians believed and it probably would have led to - a war for russians believed and it probably would have led to a i a war for russians believed and it i probably would have led to a digging in of the _ probably would have led to a digging in of the hills — probably would have led to a digging in of the hills. but _ probably would have led to a digging in of the hills. but i _ probably would have led to a digging in of the hills. but i think— probably would have led to a digging in of the hills. but i think the - in of the hills. but i think the effectiveness— in of the hills. but i think the effectiveness and _ in of the hills. but i think the effectiveness and the - in of the hills. but i think the effectiveness and the show. in of the hills. but i think the| effectiveness and the show of solidarity _ effectiveness and the show of solidarity is _ effectiveness and the show of solidarity is really _ effectiveness and the show of solidarity is really that - effectiveness and the show of solidarity is really that it i solidarity is really that it connects _ solidarity is really that it connects-— solidarity is really that it connects. ., , ., connects. really a sense of unease. we are at a — connects. really a sense of unease. we are at a time. _ connects. really a sense of unease. we are at a time. thanks _ connects. really a sense of unease. we are at a time. thanks for- connects. really a sense of unease. we are at a time. thanks for being l we are at a time. thanks for being with us. good night. hello. tuesday is the first day of meteorological spring and the weather is powering down a bit. we had a fair bit of rain around on monday, that waterfront is heading its way south eastwards, getting stuck in the south of england and through the english channel. north of that high pressure means a colder start to tuesday, the prospect of some sunshine. grey skies and outbreaks of rain and drizzle across southern parts of england through the english channel. that wetter weather may move into south east anglia. further north, north wales, northern england and northwards should expect some sunshine, a few light showers and the far north of scotland for a while.

temperatures after that chilly start in northern areas nine or 10 degrees. further south that weather front continues to bring some outbreaks of rain. that will move its way northwards overnight into wednesday morning. for scotland were going to have some clear skies so a frosty start to the day here, temperatures could be down to —1i or —5. the coldest night of the week ahead. further south we've got this cloudy, damp weather, light rain and drizzle by this stage. that will head northwards into the central belt ofscotland for northern island, northern england. further south it may turn a bit drier, especially in southern england, temperatures averaging 11 degrees. for many northern areas a chillier day with the cloudy, damp weather moving in over that cold potentially frosty start. a bit more rain to come in from the atlantic overnight in for thursday. it's a weather front moving very slowly eastwards, bringing most of the rain during the day on thursday to northern and western parts of the uk. the wet weather could pivot away from southwest and we may get some sunshine here. ahead of the rain for much of the day it will be dry across much of eastern parts of england, temperatures may be reaching 12 degrees.

for scotland eight or 9 degrees. this is probably where we've got some of the wettest weather during the day on thursday. that wet weather does move away overnight. slowly that weather front exits out into the north sea, a brief ridge of high pressure ahead of that area of low pressure from the atlantic. this is where we've got most of that cloud and it is mostly cloud by this stage. not much rain. slowly moving away from eastern england then some sunshine follows the top wanted to showers, mainly in the northwest of scotland, many places will have a dry day but not particularly mild with temperatures seven to 10 c. let's look forward to the weekend. another quiet weekend to come. a lot of dry weather around, light winds but it is going to be quite cold. particularly at night. i mentioned that low pressure in the atlantic, lokk what happens to that? itjust feels, pressure rises across it we end up with high pressure building and across the uk on saturday. around the top of the high you've got stronger winds up toward the northern arrows, maybe a few showers, otherwise the winds will be light, we will have that cold potentially

frosty start but a dry day with a good deal of sunshine but not particularly mild. again, seven to 10 degrees. a bit below par for this time of the year. that high pressure is still in charge during the second half of the weekend, more of the same. from monday onwards the high stars to retreat eastwards. first weak weather front comes in on monday than a more active ones were exempt from the southwest around that deeper area of low pressure that sits to the northwest of the uk. that will strengthen the winds and will bring slightly cooler air from the atlantic as well. the really cold air is in eastern europe underneath that area of high pressure. so as you can see, through the weekend a lot of dry weather, decent amount of sunshine, may start to see a little bit of rain on monday but it's after monday that the weather turns more unsettled, stronger winds with some showers potentially some longer spells of rain. that's it. goodbye.

tonight at ten, we're live in kyiv, as the russian advance across ukraine, brings more devastation, and civilian casulaties. as fighting intensifies in the country's second largest city, of kharkiv, the president makes a direct appeal to russian soldiers, invading his country. translation: drop your weapons and get out of here. _ do not believe your commanders, do not believe your propagandists. just save your lives and go. half a million have left ukraine since the invasion began, with some cities witnessing a frantic scramble to escape.

the police again are outnumbered, but they're doing their best. i've seen them go down there into the crowds