this is bbc news. russian forces have continued their offensive in ukraine with heavy bombardment west of kyiv. a correspondence at a steady stream of people have been fleeing the area on foot, taking only what they can carry with them to try to find safety. the israeli prime minister met president putin in russia to discuss the war in ukraine. they spoke for three hours and also discussed the situation in syria. he is now heading to berlin to meet the german chancellor. visa and mastercard are suspending their respective services in russia. mastercard said it will no longer support cards issued by russian banks and mastercard is issued outside the country will not work at russian merchants. visa says it will stop all transactions in russia in coming days. now time for

talking business. let's go and take a look at what is on the show. the war in ukraine is having a devastating impact. people are dying and there are growing fears about what is now a wartime economy continuing to function. just how can it carry on supporting the civilians and soldiers who are fighting russia as well as the millions who can't flee the country? i'm going to speak to one of president zelinsky�*s economic advisors and find out how efforts to reshape everything from banking to agriculture are drawing in more western support. big names such as carlsberg, coca—cola and ups have had to close operations in the country so one business leader will tell me what the word means for the foreign investment ukraine so badly needs. also on the show will be

speaking to the boss of the world bank as it tries to help ukraine to war which it says will only add to the inflationary pressures already pushing up the cost of living for all of us all around the world. wherever in the world you're joining me from a big hello and one welcome to the show. this week we're taking a special look at ukraine and how its people and its economy have been impacted by the war. it is a country famed for its vast farmlands. the other part of the flag are said to represent the flag are said to represent the golden wheat fields and thatis the golden wheat fields and that is a big part of the economy. in fact, that is a big part of the economy. infact, ukraine that is a big part of the economy. in fact, ukraine is considered the breadbasket of europe. the latest numbers show

the economy is worth $180 billion after a struggle through the coronavirus pandemic. because of tight restrictions with limited government support. things were starting to improve and less than four weeks before russia invaded ukraine's independent central bank said it expected growth of 3% this year. that now seems unlikely. the entire country is on a war footing and thatis country is on a war footing and that is having a knock on economy heavily depended on the service industry manufacturing and agriculture. that agricultural industry is really important to the rest of the world. nearly half of global sunflower oil exports come from ukraine as the 16 and a half percent of corn and 12% of wheat. i caught up with an economic adviser to president zelinsky and on their supervisory board of the state—owned company. thank you

forjoining me. i really appreciate your time. let's start with this. the ukrainian economy is a significant global player. more so than some might think so can you paint is a brief overview of the economy and its performance over the past few years?— and its performance over the past few years? yes, it is the [arc est past few years? yes, it is the largest in _ past few years? yes, it is the largest in band, _ past few years? yes, it is the largest in band, not - past few years? yes, it is the largest in band, not counting| largest in band, not counting russia. not a very rich country but still large economy. it is primarily, is not too different from other economies and i should say that it has been developing quite rapidly so we've seen some good stable growth since the first big crisis with russia happened in the war started in the east and now we have reached this point. what are the most important parts of the economy to keep

going through all of this. and how are you doing that as a government? it how are you doing that as a government?— government? it is hard to really pinpoint _ government? it is hard to really pinpoint anything i government? it is hard to j really pinpoint anything at this stage but it is clear that anything to do with the production of materials or things necessary for the conduct of war is obviously essential to support so that is what we are doing. we are getting, you know, aid from abroad and producing a lot of military equipment. that is obviously vital in this situation. the other vital aspect is everything helping people sustain their lives so food production and logistics, basic services like energy. we have energy disruptions and people mightjust be sitting around without light four days so we have to avoid that by all means. , so we have to avoid that by all means. i. ,, . , so we have to avoid that by all means. ,~ ,, . ,., means. key aspects of the economy _ means. key aspects of the economy is _ means. key aspects of the economy is the _ means. key aspects of the i economy is the infrastructure but your troops are having to blow up bridges and russian missiles destroying so much

there. how bad is that damage from all of that? in the market is kind of shocking of course. even just in a few days of the first days we have already seen massive destructions, like you said, of roads and bridges and infrastructure so that is something that will have to be rebuilt when the war is over. it is hard to put a number on that right now but we can already see that we've given up percentages in gdp growth because of what happened already so that is an underestimate, probably, because the war seems to be an ongoing conflict that will stay with us for quite some time. so, yes, it is a catastrophic impact for our economy and for the region overall. the most important part of ukraine's economy, its people, are in large numbers either fleeing economy, its people, are in large numbers eitherfleeing or fighting. what is that doing to the economy when it comes to basic like keeping supermarkets stocked with food.—

stocked with food. people are fleeina. stocked with food. people are fleeing. less _ stocked with food. people are fleeing. less workforce - stocked with food. people are l fleeing. less workforce around, obviously, so production is collapsing, that is automatically happening. nursing supply chain disruptions, food is harder to get, for it is harder to transport. so the effect, of course, is horrendous. just from all of that together. your president _ from all of that together. your president has _ from all of that together. your president has made _ from all of that together. your president has made a - from all of that together. your president has made a lot - from all of that together. your president has made a lot of. president has made a lot of reforms to the economy that had been well received by foreign investors and the likes of the imf so i am wondering how much do they reflect the president's desire for ukraine to be part of the eu and the west rather than russia? i of the eu and the west rather than russia?— than russia? i think that is sot than russia? i think that is spot on- — than russia? i think that is spot on- they _ than russia? i think that is spot on. they absolutely . spot on. they absolutely reflect the people's desire in ukraine to integrate with the european union and be part of the european family and to just have a democratic, strong economically free country that is flourishing. so, for

example, we had a big land reform and that was a very big step forward for a country that has 74% agricultural land in terms of its surface area. so thatis terms of its surface area. so that is hugely important. we had reforms in thejudicial sector making, in attempt to make ourjudiciary more make our judiciary more independent make ourjudiciary more independent and just more transparent than it used to be. we had reforms in the digitisation of the economy so in other words, ukraine, according to many, is now at the forefront of digitisation globally when it comes to government services, ease of doing business, and so on. so all of that, of course, stands in stark contrast to what is happening in russia. and continues to happen in russia over all these years and that is perhaps another reason why the russian leaderjust so blatantly hate everything about ukraine is what ukraine stands for. , , ukraine is what ukraine stands for. i, ., ukraine is what ukraine stands for. i, . ., ., for. cyber attacks are another art of for. cyber attacks are another part of this — for. cyber attacks are another part of this conflict. _ for. cyber attacks are another part of this conflict. how- for. cyber attacks are another part of this conflict. how is i part of this conflict. how is the banking system faring? this

is art of the banking system faring? this is part of hybrid _ the banking system faring? ti 3 is part of hybrid warfare. we have been having to deal with this on a regular basis for the last, you know, weeks, since just before the invasion, attacks have intensified and that really shifted our focus so when i am a supervisory board member, we had to really secure our data sensitive focusing on privatisation we were shifting securing our operations, securing data, we have had to move to rooms of hardware from kyiv, the core of our transactions and data systems to the very west of the country. just to make sure, you know, have the data secured for now if something happens to care. we have had contingency plans of what he would do with the cash to any of the cities

of our branches. where cities are captured and so on. it would not be the cash to the enemy which is something you have to do in wartime.- have to do in wartime. thank ou so have to do in wartime. thank you so much _ have to do in wartime. thank you so much for— have to do in wartime. thank you so much for your - have to do in wartime. thank you so much for your time i have to do in wartime. thank i you so much for your time that i really appreciate it. take care, stay safe and i in with you soon. care, stay safe and i in with you soon-— care, stay safe and i in with ou soon. ., ~ ,, , . you soon. thank you very much. ukraine's _ you soon. thank you very much. ukraine's government _ you soon. thank you very much. ukraine's government has - you soon. thank you very much. ukraine's government has been | ukraine's government has been trying to introduce widespread reforms to the economy. the economy. the gas industry, banking and farming arejust some of the many areas where change has been happening. the big hope is that clamping down on corruption and making sure the law is upheld properly will make the country more attractive to foreign investors. they were steadily pouring more money in until the pandemic took hold. that means, if we look at the latest numbers, they show that in 2020, nearly $870 million was actually taken out of the country but there were signs of improvement last year. 65% of members of the american chamber of commerce in ukraine said,

backin of commerce in ukraine said, back in september, that their incomes were on course to grow incomes were on course to grow in 2021. crucially 46% of increase staff numbers, normally a sign of confidence for the future. the 600 plus members include big names such as coca—cola, bmw and citibank and i've been speaking to its president. thank you for joining me. just explain to as what the impact of the russian invasion so far has been in the ukrainian economy and not only for your 600 plus members but for your 600 plus members but for everyone. you make the effect is massive. firstly, in terms of the employees, the companies, the number one priority is the safety and security of all employees so many have had contingency plans in place for years. have a sense putin invaded crimea in 2014. but of late, the last man

to have been detailed to contingency plans that have been updated on a daily basis. they were focusing on issues including cyber security and hibernation, relocation and now evacuation. the effect has been massive. many companies have had to close and many have evacuated employees. and the good thing is many companies have come together and they understand it is down to business now to help the humanitarian drive getting foods, medicines, all kinds of help to those most in need. and thatis help to those most in need. and that is why companies have come together and are giving access. these are some of the best logistics across the country so they have access lorries, drivers, warehouses and their using their warehouses all across the country and even on the border across poland,

hungary, slovakia or romania, using warehouses by the borders and helping aid to get through. 0ffices and helping aid to get through. offices and factories come to a grinding halt because staff are fleeing to safety orjoin the fight against russia, i'm curious about some factories because some can be closed for others it is not that simple, is it? like steel plants. you cannot switch those off. you hit the nail _ cannot switch those off. you hit the nail on _ cannot switch those off. you hit the nail on the _ cannot switch those off. you hit the nail on the head. - cannot switch those off. ym. hit the nail on the head. some of the factories, especially here in western ukraine, they are continuing and are trying to get the message across to keep the economy turning over but steel mills, you cannot switch that off, you can switch of the furnace, the urban wear it solidifies and that is it. that furnace will not be able to be used again. ukraine is a

big exporter of wheat, corn, soy, sunflower. sunflower seeds, sunflower oil. ports are close. it will have a knock—on effect for the commodity crisis. , ., , ., ., crisis. the big worry for now is that foreign _ crisis. the big worry for now is that foreign investment . crisis. the big worry for now is that foreign investment is going to simply dry up as this conflict continues. some of these countries will be looking at what they can do to boost the economy once this horrible war is over. there will be some sort of a marshall plan coming across. we saw germany in 1945. i think it would be the whole world coming together and rebuilding the infrastructure, rebuilding, getting the country back on track and that is really where foreign investment will come in. what we have seen over the last month, the actual revenues that tax collections,

there were 150 million us dollars more than they had planned. why? companies understand now they are actually prepaying voluntarily their taxes because they understand that you need to keep the economy ticking over. if you don't mind, you have no left years and i believe you're in slovakia. what was that journey right? it in slovakia. what was that journey right?— in slovakia. what was that “ourne riuht? . , . , journey right? it was a number of stages- _ journey right? it was a number of stages- we _ journey right? it was a number of stages. we left _ journey right? it was a number of stages. we left with - journey right? it was a number of stages. we left with my - journey right? it was a number of stages. we left with my son j of stages. we left with my son is the sirens were blaring. it was something i will remember for the rest of my life and something that was very emotional. leaving kyiv where the air sirens blaring. i think the air sirens blaring. i think thejourney, we had a number of stages. you know, i had jerry cans in the car. already in place for weeks because we had contingency plans in place. we

had a map, paper maps and the carjust in case the internet and mobile network were to go down. the reason why we left is keeping in contact. having internet access. also helping now with the humanitarian drive and that is much easier to coordinate here on the border on this side of ukraine and being on your other border. stay safe and i really appreciate your time. thank you forjoining me. the international community has rounded on russia over its invasion of ukraine. punishing economic and financial sanctions are being used to try to stop president putin. at the international community has limited its support for ukraine's government. the likes of the european union, uk and united states are wary of getting drawn into full—scale war with russia. but for years there have been putting money

into supporting ukraine's efforts to make its economy more western in outlook. much of that ghosted economic development bodies like the imf and the world bank. in fact, i have been talking with the president of the world bank. always a pleasure having you with us. unfortunately it is under the circumstances but let me start with this. the world bank has been heavily involved in ukraine since the 2014 revolution that led to the president fleeing to russia. what sort of things has the world bank been funding? at what sort of things has the world bank been funding? at the crimea invasion _ world bank been funding? at the crimea invasion there _ world bank been funding? at the crimea invasion there was - world bank been funding? at the crimea invasion there was a - world bank been funding? at the crimea invasion there was a big l crimea invasion there was a big effort to have ukraine be more market orientated and be more connected with europe. that means on each kind of product, if you think about ukraine, it has got huge potential in terms of agriculture, for example, but that means fertiliser, that means export markets for the

products and so, we were involved with those sectors, land reform is very important because they inherited all the leftover with the old soviet system. a communist system that was an utter failure system. a communist system that was an utterfailure in system. a communist system that was an utter failure in terms of agricultural production and so we were involved in that. also in the banking reform efforts. i guess the pattern, if you can think about it, is the need for state owned enterprises to be allowed to have private ownership but also to be more productive and for there to be a structure for that. ~ ~' ., there to be a structure for that. ~ ~ ., i. there to be a structure for that. ~ ~ ., ., there to be a structure for that. ~ ~ ., , ., ., ., there to be a structure for that. . ~' ., , ., ., ., ., that. we know you have had a long-standing _ that. we know you have had a long-standing interest - that. we know you have had a long-standing interest in - that. we know you have had a long-standing interest in this| long—standing interest in this part of the world. you studied russian, ukraine was the second day she visited in your current role. what are your deepest worries for the country of ukraine?— ukraine? this could be a lastin: ukraine? this could be a lasting setback. - ukraine? this could be a lasting setback. under. ukraine? this could be a i lasting setback. under the ideas and goals of an

individual reader. it is not clear how representative putin is of russia. i don't think very representative with regard to what he is doing in ukraine. and yet it is possible that he will be able to dominate the situation. i have emphasised, you know, russia has weaknesses. their income is falling below china. because in part because of economic mismanagement and because they really have maintained such a centralised system of decision—making under putin for now, eversince decision—making under putin for now, ever since 2000, the risk is that ukraine is control controlled by that. i'd bet how'd you describe economic damage in ukraine? i was speaking to an economic adviser to president zelensky who described it as absolutely catastrophic. you can measure

that in terms of gdp if you want to so numbers of gdp in 2022 will be -30% want to so numbers of gdp in 2022 will be —30% or some very large number. we don't know and it is too early to make that assessment. we are working with the imf on that. also there is the imf on that. also there is the stoppage of investment and financial thefts. everything moving backward. and a lot of people. people leave. it is very hard to relocate. think of the costs of simply moving. i have to tell you today i am more concerned about the popular human loss of life. i5 popular human loss of life. is build you, david. i'm going to stay on this water does make you angry, especially when you talk about infrastructure, which in ukraine we are seeing has literally been blown up in front of our own eyes and you've read an organisation thatis you've read an organisation that is funded a lot of that. i know that i and many world bank staff have worked, myself less

long but staff for 20 years to build a ukraine that are strong and to build a russia that is strong. belarus that is strong. we have programmes and we are seeing those efforts destroyed. which is a sadness. there is so much of this that cannot be recovered. think of for russia to have built an economy. not a very powerful economy. the gdp is $1.4 trillion roughly, like spain, which is disappointing if you know best and energy—rich russia is. they have reserves all the way through energy reserves, natural resource reserves all the way to the pacific ocean. i've flown across russia and

you go through 12 time zones as you go through 12 time zones as you cross this fascination and the gdp never really took off because oligarchs were taking so much of the prophet. fist because oligarchs were taking so much of the prophet. at the time of this _ so much of the prophet. at the time of this recording - so much of the prophet. at the time of this recording there - so much of the prophet. at the time of this recording there is l time of this recording there is a discussion going on at the world bank by $350 million aid package for ukraine. we know this is a fast—moving event but if that goes to what will it fun? give a help fund the budget of ukraine so in this particular instance this package is to add on previous operation that was done by the world bank so it goes to support land reform that ukraine has been undertaking which is critical for its long—term success. and other reforms that are nearing

completion before the war broke out. are you effectively then underwriting the cost of work for ukraine and therefore the world bank, in your near 190 members are effectively taking on russia? i members are effectively taking on russia?— on russia? i don't see a turtle- _ on russia? i don't see a turtle. we _ on russia? i don't see a turtle. we are _ on russia? i don't see a turtle. we are looking i on russia? i don't see a l turtle. we are looking for on russia? i don't see a - turtle. we are looking for ways to support ukraine as it faces economic catastrophe and that can be measured in terms of the loss of international reserves that ukraine is suffering. the loss of tax revenues because of the shutdown of the economy. we have seen a steady stream of sanctions imposed on russia because of president putin's invasion. what will they mean for the russian economy in the living standards for the russian people?- living standards for the russian people? there are multiple — russian people? there are multiple aspects _ russian people? there are multiple aspects of - russian people? there are multiple aspects of it. - russian people? there are multiple aspects of it. one russian people? there are i multiple aspects of it. one of the weakness of rouble. that hits russians immediately because they have to pay more for all of their goods. it is recorded as very high inflation rate. it is the poor in russia the most so it is very unfair

tax. the oligarchs don't pay the inflation tax because they have a lot of their money in hard currency so that is one factor. the second is the loss of export income because of the sanctions themselves and the cutting off imports. there is a major and it will be important for the future of russia how the world adjusts to the energy situation. they may permanently lose some of their market given the direction of the world. before this war the rising cost of living was already a huge problem for millions of others around the world. what impact will this war in ukraine have on that rising cost of everything picture? you make the war comes at a bad time for the war comes at a bad time for the world because inflation was already rising and in

developing countries a third of them already had interest rates raised so that puts a real burden on their financial systems. the energy cost rises hit everyone especially they are a progressive tax which at the poor than most as does inflation. food prices are very real consideration and problem for people in poor countries and for everyone and they have gone up a lot. russia and ukraine are both big food producers. ajane factor in the word out that has the energy situation. we have to take that into account. vas a major provider in the pipelines have been this important sense of dependence by western europe. are be saying that consumer prices all around the world are going to go even higher because

of this war? the going to go even higher because of this war?— of this war? the war is likely to ut of this war? the war is likely to put upward _ of this war? the war is likely to put upward pressure - of this war? the war is likely to put upward pressure on i to put upward pressure on prices so inflation would go higher than it would have gone without the war. there is no way to adjust quickly enough to the loss of from ukraine are from russia.— the loss of from ukraine are from russia. could this lead to a ulobal from russia. could this lead to a global recession? _ from russia. could this lead to a global recession? if- from russia. could this lead to a global recession? if the - from russia. could this lead to a global recession? if the mic| a global recession? if the mic i think it is too early to say that this will be a what it is is a catastrophe for russia, for ukraine, and for their neighbours and the rest of the world will need to adjust very rapidly in order to go forward. 0n rapidly in order to go forward. on that note, always a pleasure speaking to you. unfortunately it is under the circumstances but i always appreciate your time. thank you forjoining me. that is all for this week's share but you can get all the latest developments in the war in ukraine on the bbc news website or download the app on your smartphone. website or download the app on yoursmartphone. in website or download the app on your smartphone. in the you can keepin your smartphone. in the you can keep in touch with me on

twitter. hello — it is cold and frosty across the northern half of the uk where we have clearer skies and light winds. sunday morning starts off on that chilly note, but some sunshine on offer for most of the day. the lowest temperatures will be across rural scotland, perhaps as low as —8 during the early hours of sunday morning. further south we have more cloud across england and wales producing some spots of drizzle through the morning. cloud should tend to break up with more sunshine for many areas compared to what we saw on saturday. perhaps a bit more cloud for south—western england

and into wales as well. further north, like winds and lots of sunshine on offer back towards southern england and wales, a breeze coming in from the north—east and that will take the edge off the temperatures. not particularly warm with high of between 7—9 celsius but with the light winds and the sunshine it should be a fairly pleasant day across the north. on sunday night and on into monday morning, cloud still towards the south and south—west, tending to fade so under those clearer skies with light winds, the frost will be even more extensive as we head in to monday morning. that is not quite as low, those temperatures, but many of us seeing a touch of frost to start monday morning. monday, largely dry with spells of sunshine, always a bit more cloud across england and wales, just drifting northwards into northern ireland and southern scotland but it will be well broken, so some sunny spells but still chilly at around 7—9 celsius. looking further ahead, high pressure will ease towards the east overnight into tuesday, allowing that to work in from the rest and as it does, the breeze

will be picking up on tuesday from a south—easterly direction and we are likely to see some showers arriving across south—west england and wales and northern ireland later in the day. warmer by this stage, around 7—11, the top temperature on tuesday. midweek and it looks as though low pressure will try to move in from the atlantic as high pressure slips away the east. that will mean a bit more cloud and rain at times but milder air working in, so a bit of a chilly start to the new working week. it looks like things will turn a bit more unsettled, but also milder for midweek. goodbye for now.

welcome to bbc news. i'm james reynolds. our top stories. as more people flee the bombings and missile strikes a former ukrainian president tells the bbc his country is desperate. you see all these people are suffering from that and this is completely unacceptable and when we are asking the no—fly zone, this is exactly for these people. nato rules out a no—fly zone but poland looks at a plan that could see ukraine given old fighterjets. the economic fighter jets. the economic fallout fighterjets. the economic fallout from the war continues. these and mastercard announced they are each disconnecting their services in russia. solidarity in the streets — and in the football stands — thousands continue to show support for the people of ukraine.