this is bbc news. the headlines: furtherfighting has been taking place outside the ukrainian capital kyiv, where russian forces are around 25 kilometres from the centre of the city. british military intelligence believes those russian troops have been regrouping, possibly for a fresh offensive that could happen in the coming days. a senior ukrainian minister says around 13,000 people were evacuated from a number of ukrainian cities on saturday — almost twice the number who were able to get out the day before — but no—one managed to leave the besieged port of mariupol, blocked by russian forces. in iraq, the state news agency says the city of erbil has been hit by several missiles. video on social media shows several large explosions in the vicinity of the american consulate. no casualties were reported. erbil is the capital of the autonomous kurdish region in northern iraq. now on bbc news,

dateline london. hello and welcome to the programme which brings together bbc specialists and the foreign correspondents who write, blog and broadcast to audiences back home from the dateline london. two weeks in, what do russians know about the war that, in their country, do not speak its name? europe begins to wean itself from russian energy, but is it fast enough? and as shortages bite extremely in different ukrainian exports of wheat but what about those who depend on it? joining us this week — henry chu, an experienced foreign correspondent at the la times who, as the us west coast sleeps,

is ensuring its readers are kept up to date on what's happening in ukraine. vera krichevskaya is a documentary film—maker. she helped to found tv rain, an independent channel in russia which has now been shut down. and joining me in the studio, gabriel gatehouse, international editor for bbc television's newsnight programme. thank you very much, and to vera, who isjoining us for the first time on this programme. i would like to start with you, if i may, how are russians are finding out about what the kremlin calls its �*special military operation'? good evening. can i start with the latest news? in one hour and 30 minutes, instagram in russia will be officially banned before, on this week, twitter and facebook was banned, so but all this started two weeks ago, the first day of the war. the new law was enforced that restricted to say the word

�*war�* and to call it, this war, as a �*special operation'. and another law was enforced, saying you cannot quote any source regarding the war, except the official sources of the russian ministry of defence or the russian news state media. that's how it started, two weeks ago. is there a way russians can get around this? are they finding ways to get information? situation was changed several times. first week of the war, tv rain and other independent media could work during the first seven days. even more — maybe eight days. it was a kind of verbal game. for example, tv rain, tv dorscht give voices for many ukrainians, many ukrainian experts, participated, broadcasting.

but later, later, new amendments were aired and any �*fake�* information regarding the war became punishable with 15 years in prison. crosstalk. and, of course, the authorities decide what is and is not fake. yes! henry, of course, the sanctions are clearly having an impact. isn't there a risk in some of the social media companies have themselves withdrawn, have closed access to their sites in russia. is there is a danger that, actually, willing hearts and minds is not happening? is there enough of an effort to do that? well, it is a difficult challenge because to win hearts and minds, you need access to eyes and ears and, as vera wasjust saying, those avenues that —— of information that are not from state sources are becoming fewer and fewer. it is not any more a war where nato, for example, is directly flying

over russian airspace and can drop leaflets on the people, as we thought about wars back before — it is much more electronic now. and when you have the majority people still relying on television, and if you are on the outside don't have access to those airwaves, then trying to actually get information over to them and to win them over is going to be a really tough task. as vera said, social media, too, are being shutdown — facebook, instagram and twitter. in fact, the facebook parent organisation, meta, is being designated an extremist organisation. and we also need to remember even those russians, younger ones, by and large, who are getting information on online sources and social media, that does not necessarily mean they're getting western information. it could be from russian sources themselves and from other— pro— russian outlets,

so finding that way in is really difficult. i think that perhaps, the most effective appeals to hearts — and minds has actually come from ukraine's own president, volodmyr zelensky, who speaks russian and has made direct appeals to the russian people in their own language to say, you know, this is not your war. why are your leaders doing this? and encouraging them to protest against that. but again, if there are no avenues in, then it is going to be very difficult to try to win those hearts and minds you talked about, sean. i suppose there are informal connections, because so many ukrainians have russian relatives and vice versa. vast numbers. i've been speaking to peoplel in eastern ukraine especially, where most people have russian as a first language, _ who say they have _ been talking to their relatives inside russia but often, - you hear these heartbreaking tales of people saying, "guys!

"you guys are bombing us here! "what are you doing?" and their relatives _ on the other side of the divide saying, "we don't believe you. "this is propaganda. "these are the ukrainians doing it to themselves." i so you have — these heart— rending situations where families are being driven apart by warand bombs, - but also emotionally and no . longer sharing a shared truth. ijust want to pick up - on what henry was saying about social media and . winning hearts and minds. i mean, meta, facebook'sl parent company yesterday, i think, took the - extraordinary decision to suspend its prohibition. on calls for violence against russians. now, 0k, they have been blocked in russia so maybe it isjust - a business decision but talking about how not to win hearts i and minds, right, it is| an incredible decision. that does sound bizarre. i'd interested to see what the company's explanation is for that. i suppose the group of people who might have access to information are the people around president putin. have you detected in the conversations and contacts you have in russia any sense of unease within the regime? i would be very interested

to know to what extent i the greater kremlin — - the tight circle around putin — actually believes thisl orwellian propaganda that they are putting out. 0rto or to what extent... what are we talking about? a couple of dozen, 100? i would say more of a region of a couple — i would say more of a region of a couple of— i would say more of a region of a couple of dozen, _ i would say more of a region of a couple of dozen, but - i would say more of a region of a couple of dozen, but it- i would say more of a region of a couple of dozen, but it is- i would say more of a region of a couple of dozen, but it is in. a couple of dozen, but it is in flux, — a couple of dozen, but it is in flux, right? _ it is shrinking. i always used to think. of putin's powers resting on a three stool. you could still say you have the oligarchs, _ the money men, the technocrats, people like the foreign - minister who basically can be a politician to make the system and put essentially do - what they while getting quite i rich at the same time and then the strong men. the people from the security apparatus and all of that. - i thought of putin's power resting on two legs. - but i think what we have come to realise the last two weeks l or 2.5 weeks is that - the influence of those two

first groups — the oligarchs and the apparatchiks, - the strongmen, is much strongen _ really, the key questioni is what are they thinking and i don't know what you think i but i don't think anyone reallyl knows. first of all, i would like to say that the that the state, the regime created years ago — in 2014 — they created not an existing world for the audience, for russian viewers and then believed in this non—existent world. i think they started believing of their own propaganda — that is what happened. otherwise, you cannot explain to anyone this invasion. it is the first thing. the second thing is i think it is clear already that putin

got a very non — extremelty non—professional report regarding a leak from different sources and we got a report today that one fps general and his deputy was put on home arrest. house arrest, yes? house arrest, yes. and this particular general reported about what is going on in ukraine. so it looks like the kremlin started understanding that they knew nothing about what is going on in ukraine, really. got you. henry, president biden on friday again returned to the question of sanctions. president putin had said on thursday — the first address i think he's made on the subject publicly — yes, some things are going to hurt but we are going to mitigate the effects. biden has moved fast. is there any frustration that the pace at which the europeans

and british are moving, because they are manifestly moving at a slower pace in terms of banning oil and gas imports. i think on the fuel question, you are right — there is a two—speed effort going on. on some of the previous ones, though, in terms of sanctioning actual people, for example, the lawmakers in the duma who voted for in favour of this recognising the breakaway republics and other oligarchs and some of the other sanctions that have been applied, lthink— there was much more unanimity and a bit more synchronicity in terms of when they actually imposed the sanctions. and actually, although biden, you know, did announce this ban on oil and gas imports from russia, and then on some products, perhaps putting more sanctions on them by revoking

this most—favoured—nation trading _ status, there is some sympathy in washington that europe, of course, is in a very different situation from the us when it comes to the reliance on russian fuel and russian products. you look at what the us imports in terms of barrels of oil from russia. it is only about 700,000 a day, whereas for europe, it is 4 million. and then you look at some european countries that are one — almost 100% reliant on russian gas. so to tell their people that now you need to freeze or actually be paying through the roof for home heating and home cooking is going to be very difficult. so i think there are some compassion there within washington as to europe trying to go a little bit slower, and also recognising that, for example, you have chancellor 0laf scholz in germany already taking that step of suspending the nord stream ii pipeline, which the biden administration had wanted for a long time. and now they actually have done. the figures are dramatic — only 2% of that is to the uk. 8% to the us. europe is absolutely exposed.

i was thinking when this first started, in the first week, i few days, everyone was - so shocked by what happened and then, suddenly, - everybody came together. i mean, the response was quite incredible. | the sort of europe which we think of as being kind - of congenitally disunited really came together- on this and i was thinking in . those days — and i was talking to people inside russia in moscow and trying . to figure out what was going on inside the kremlin, - and would anyone turn against putin if the consequences — i economic consequences, lifestyle consequences . for these people - seemed dire enough — and there was a moment i wondered whether, if . in those early days i when they were piling on the pressure, day by day, and it was getting bigger- and bigger, europe had said, you know what? i were not — going to buy your gas. don't care what it costs. we'll print money. we will do whatever, you know. i wondered, at that point, - whether there might have been

a palace coup. whether some of the people around him, i who had been around him for 15 or 20 years, who have got veryl rich, while sort of ranting. and railing against the west at home but, you know, going to their... - this is russia's export. the whole regime l runs on oil and gas. that is their lifeblood. that is what gives them power, j that is what gives them wealth. so i wondered whether some of those people, who, - you know, rail against the west at home but go on holidays- in their nice, fancy yachts and stay in their villas - in tuscany— and send their kids to british boarding schools whether, l if there had been the energy thing, if europe had - said, do you know what? we're not buying your gas. whether somebody would admit against him. - but it's speculation. but i think that - window has passed now. vera, clearly, one side effect of the kind of surge in oil prices that actually means russia gets a bit more for what it does sell — the 20% to china and all the rest of it —

but do you get the impression from talking to friends in russia that the sanctions are yet hitting ordinary russians? are they yet feeling the effects of this? no, no, no, they are panicking. there is a panic en masse. in saint petersburg. i mean, average people, because prices for food, various simple food baskets, sugar, grains, going people try to buy something in advance and it is already shortage on shelves at supermarkets. people are panicking. and there is a problem with the banking system as well. so i think it hurts the average people from the beginning. from the second day, i would say. my friends in moscow, many of whom are journalists

and many of whom have been forced to flee because, as you said, journalism has effectively become a crime punishable by 50 years injail, they now find themselves in a position whereby — i have got a friend who hasjust left. his visa cards don't work because of british sanctions, he cannot get any this money out of his bank accounts in russia because of russian counter sanctions, some of these lectures are hurting the wrong people. absolutely, absolutely. most of my colleagues found themselves on tuesday morning without money. no money and they can't work? in georgia, in istanbul, no money. cards stopped working. it is a disaster for them. talking about unintended consequences, we have been here before, haven't we? exports of oil had not been made available by countries as a punishment. this is punishing herself a good cause but it is possible russia may by making it

harder to get oil and gas. remins us what impact that had after the war in �*73 when arab countries punish those who had supported israel. that was what some people called the first oil shock - that the world have - experienced up to that point. and it meant that the us, i for example, under embargo with oil from the middle east and i think oil prices went upj by about four fold. it was really felt, certainly in the us and other parts. of the world when there was rationing and there| was really quite an uproar in the us over this - and president nixon, i at the time, was really grasping at differentj ways to try to get oil into the country, and make sure it was not going to lead - to his own downfall for that reason. - what it had, though, - is a more long—term effect, on the us, _ was a sort of clearing of the mind and the realisation

that the us needed to developj different energy sources, that it could not only rely - on the middle east any longer. but it needed to increase domestic production, - it needed to increase efficiency and it led l to a real soul searching - when it came to energy policy and then what you have now is an interesting turn - of the wheel of history. what happened within a few years is that the soviet union, then, actually became - the word's largest oil producer. - they started doing a lot more production and exploration i in siberia, and so that ended up diversifying the overall i supply so that there was not the sort of reliance - on the middle east. and now what do we see? the usa saying it is - going to ban russian oil, the biden administration is actually talking - about getting more oil from, where? l the middle east. saudi arabia. 0r indeed, venezuela. i saw some comments from the president of venezuela

where the who was almost public enemy number one in washington saying he had had a very respectful and cordial meeting with an last sunday talking about exactly this. accessing some of venezuela's oil. absolutely, energy shocks make for interesting bedfellows. - you know ukraine incredibly well and you lived there for some years, you are backwards and forwards regularly and you have of friends there. it is a vast country, and you showed me some of that when i visited for work and worked with you. vast, beautiful country. agriculturally, so rich. and last weekend they were imposing export controls not just pn wheat, but things as basic as poultry and eggs and almost everybody has got poultry around the country in such a rural country, a country with such big rural areas. does that suggest there will be getting seriously worried about food supplies? i think they are seriously worried about everything. ithink, for the moment, from ukrainians i am speaking to, is that they are fighting fortheir lives, right? cities like mariupol are encircled. people are melting snow to drink.

so i think the sort of slightly longer term, you know, you can see them putting in these policies which will be kind of governmental thinking, and thinking for the long term, but the average person is thinking, where do i run to? how can i live once i have run there? and what are our prospects for kind of maintaining a independence and those are the ones that have the ability to move. the other ones, in these surrounded cities, they are facing the prospect of potentially very long sieges, encirclement. potentially starvation conditions. 0utside humanitarian supplies are not getting in. they are not getting in. and if we see the kind of tactics that russia and the syrians used in syria, you know, we see what the ukrainians might be looking forward to, and this is a very scary prospect. henry, ijust wanted to pick up

on the consequences of this worldwide because one of the things i did not know until this conflict started, is how much of a country like lebanon and i think yemen as well, but lebanon in particular, is dependant on ukrainian wheat. there is a country on its uppers. it is bankrupt. it is struggling to feed its people. and suddenly, ukrainian wheat and i think russia and ukraine together is about 30% of the traded wheat in the world, it is not there. it is not available. i mean, this is a war it could be exported, couldn't it? in terms of instability, ukraine, central europe and other parts of the but could start to feel that instability as well. political instability, - and also just food insecurity. i think, for lebanon, - is about to remember looking at those incredible photos. after the glass in the beirut port damaged those huge grain silos, that is why so much - of lebanon's grain came - in and i think it is an amount that it had relied on ukraine l for was about 60% of its grain supply and, as you say, i it is a completely bankrupt country now and it is -

desperately looking for other sources of grain and in egypt, as well, which i think- is the word's largest wheat importer, that is another. country where wheartl is incredibly subsidised by the government, and . rightfully so, for population that is quite dependent. and quite poor on wheat. and so if those prices start. going up, which some experts say could be happening already, obviously some prices _ are already going up| and injuly, perhaps, being felt all the more. you could be exporting - political instability to those places and it is not| just within that sort of more close—lying region. actually, a lot of the wheat. goes as far as afield as asia. indonesia has a quarter. of its wheat from ukraine and there, it is processed - into instant noodles and snacks that very poor people rely on. so, you are right. this could actually be felt all the way out in ripplesl around the world to the extent

that today, i think, _ the united nations food - and agricultural organisation said that you can havel 13 million more people experiencing food insecurityl by next year, and that isjust because of what is happening in what is often called - the breadbasket of europe and certainly, perhaps, i the breadbasket of the world. wheat trading figures in chicago, the ones i saw most was that the committee is 50% up, the cost, since the invasion. that is the bulk price. we have a minute each just at the end before we go. what worries you most about the trajectory of this war? about the way things are going? i think it might last very long. and i do not believe now, in this particular moment, that this war might be ended tomorrow or in a week. it does not look so. and, obviously, it is going to

be a huge wave of repressions inside russia as well. and endless amount of deaths. henry. thinking of those incrediblel numbers of people escaping the country, i think- that it is over 2.5 million now, and they say hafl of those are children. i women and children . are being allowed out. men of fighting age are told to stay within ukraine. - what is that due to l a country long—term? already that is about over one i eighth of people under the age of 18 in ukraine have left. what does that mean demographically andl for the future? this will unfold i for years to come. we have got a couple of minutes left. henry is right. this is a catastrophe for ukraine. but there is a question here.

if this is, and vera touched on this, if this ends up being a short war and let's hope it is, and that ukraine comes out of it with its independence more or less intact, ukraine will end up being a much stronger country than it was when it went in. versus ukrainian speakers will have almost entirely been wiped out by this cataclysmic event and this common enemy. russia, on the other hand, vera is quite right on this. no matter how long this war goes on how it ends, it is going to get very, very dark in russia, i think, as vera says, repressions, the economy that we've talked about, all this kind of stuff, until this regime is removed, things are going to get dark. i have no doubt that this war is the beginning of the end for vladimir putin. it is a question of how long the end takes to

come to fruition. i think, you know, at the end of the day, all wars end in a negotiated settlement. and i think, this week there were kind of in a place where it could either war with a negotiated settlement perhaps something recognising crimea at the separatist republics and neutrality for ukraine, or a long war. and i think we were kind of in that pivot point when we saw talks in turkey that did not go incredibly well, and that is being decided right now. thank you all very much. i look forward to welcoming you into the studio very soon to have henry back in with us as well. gabriel, lovely to see.

hello there. cloud, wind, and rain moving in from the southwest will dominate over the next few hours. it's an area of low pressure that will gradually sit towards the west of northern ireland, that's where we will see the strongest of the winds and perhaps the heaviest of the rain throughout the day this sunday. elsewhere, there is a weak weather front which will produce some showery rain through central and eastern scotland and eastern england first thing. that will ease away, sunshine comes through and a scattering of showers across england and wales, some of them heavy and thundery. the sharper showers, the most frequent rain likely to be to the northwest, that's where we will see the strongest of the winds as well, 50—60 mph gusts not out of the question. windierfor all of us through sunday, top temperatures though 9—13 celsius. if you dodge the showers and keep a little bit more sunshine, that will feel pleasant enough. now, as we move out of sunday into monday, start a new working week, we are likely to see this weather front here bringing some outbreaks of rain to begin with, but on the whole, it's an improving picture. much lighter winds on monday, that means with the sunshine coming through, it will feel noticeably warmer out there. so the rain quite light and patchy, and it will drift its way steadily eastwards

and fragment further into the afternoon. more cloud for scotland but generally sunny spells, a few isolated showers, lighter winds and highs of 14 degrees on monday. now, with some clearer skies, we could see some patchy mist and maybe some fog forming first thing on tuesday morning. it's going to be a chilly start on tuesday. the fog will lift, we will have sunshine coming through, not a bad day, largely dry with light winds for all of us, and again, pleasant enough, 14 degrees the high. wednesday, the middle part of the week, looks likely to be the day where some of us will see some rain at some point, and some of it quite heavy in actualfact. now, to the south of this weather front, it could turn very mild indeed with more of a southerly flow across eastern and south—east england. so, here, 16 degrees not out of the question, but some of that rain really could be quite heavy, and behind those weather fronts, up into the far northwest, here, it will be noticeably cooler, 8—9 celsius the overall high. so, that's how we are looking through the middle part of the week. let's just summarise that for you one more time. it looks likely that our week ahead will be largely dry with lighter winds and mild, but looks likely that on wednesday, there will be some rain for all of us at some point. take care.

welcome to bbc news. i'm lewis vaughan jones. our top stories: barricades on the outskirts of kyiv, where they're preparing for an assault possibly within days. president zelensky was asked about it today and he said if the russians, if president putin is determined to take kyiv, he will have to raze the city to the ground. we hear from the young ukrainian recruits at the checkpoints they'll be defending. satellite imagery shows some of the damage in the city of mariupol, with claims russian troops are stopping people from leaving. string music. and, making music amidst the madness — we talk to some of the violinists trying to raise money for the people of ukraine.