hello, and welcome to the programme that is after two years of covid—19 restrictions able to bring together again bbc specialists and foreign correspondent who write, blog and broadcast for the dateline london. stephanie baker, senior writer at bloomberg. marc, belgian economist and journalist who writes for a french magazine, and clive myrie, bbc news presenter and long—standing foreign

correspondent and as the song goes, it is so nice to have you all back where you belong. thank you so much for coming in. how to read the last seven days in ukraine. on the one hand, russia has been shelling residential areas in kyiv and now attacking lviv as well with heightening fears they were about to surround the capital city, and on the other signs of progress in the peace talks between the country and have the sanctions on the russian economy begun to work? stephanie, you have worked for bloomberg, are the sanctions starting to have an impact and what are the problems that still remain? clearly they have had an immediate impact on the russian economy. the rouble crashed. russia is on the verge of a default. thousands, hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs. and there has been this huge brain drain of the people fleeing, 200,000 russians have fled just in the first ten days

of the invasion. so, in that sense, it's had an immediate impact in things like freezing russia's bank reserves and cutting banks out of the international payment system has had a huge impact. whether or not that's actually had an impact on putin's calculation of the war remains to be seen. i think you are seeing a slight dial back in the demands from the kremlin. recently when you're talking about peace talks and the possibility of a peace deal, that looks to be more like the fact they had miscalculated the invasion and encountered far more resistance from the ukrainians than they were expecting. not because of the impact of sanctions. the problem with sanctions is they take a long time to really have any kind of effect. and maybe they were looking forward to how long can we sustain this and it's true the russians are sustaining huge losses

in ukraine, both in terms of billions of dollars of military equipment, thousands of lives lost, the us estimates that 7,000 russian soldiers died. but sanctioning the oligarchs and these moves against the russian economy, i think that's going to take a little bit more time to feed through. you've spoken to somebody who is a very wealthy russian living in london this week. what is his experience? has he felt it directly? yes, i interviewed mikhail, a billionaire born in ukraine that made his money into russia and who lives in london while running a private equity firm. he was sanctioned by the eu on the 20th of february and then again by the uk in the most recent round of sanctions and as a result he has no access to cash. he is a billionaire without money essentially. and has to apply to the uk government for a licence in order

to spend money and the uk government can decide what is reasonable. and indications are that the amount was something like £2500 a month, which if you were worth 1a million before the war, now he's worth 10 million on paper... "11; "14 billion before the war, and 10 billion on paper. that's quite a dramatic downfall. i think his view is they want me to go back to russia, but i don't want to go back to russia. and if you see the comments that putin made this week you had this chilling speech this week calling on traitors and the west backing a fifth column of russians who have made their money in russia but were living abroad and was kind of directed at those like him. it's very... russia is returning to a very dark place that has the overtones of stalinism and i think it's hard to see how the sanctions will play out for people like that who don't want to go back. i think some of the sanctioned

oligarchs will go back to russia and there is a possibility it could backfire and strengthen them because that's what putin always wanted. he always wanted all those russians to come back. ideally bring the resources, but even if they cannot do that, they physically bring them home. clive, you have been in ukraine and spent some time there during this war. is there much confidence, much faith among ukrainians you met that sanctions are going to deliver the goods for them? no, they're not thinking about sanctions at all. if they do, they might think it's nice the west is doing something but what they want is boots on the ground. they want to have a no—fly zone. they want potentially when it comes to sanctions a trade blockade for instance. that might be something that would prick up the ears of the average ukrainian but ultimately what they want is force to be applied. i agree with stephanie the sanctions take a long time to bed in.

and the suggestion is that it some point, the gdp could fall, i saw anything from 12% with some estimates at 30%. 35%, absolutely. russian gdp because of the sanctions and that is crippling. that takes the country back to the 1990s. does putin care about that? yes, but he would rather have military success and it's the fact that the troops are having problems on the ground, bogged down and the americans are sending in the stingers, the british are sending in anti—tank weapons, it's all flooding in on that western border from the nato countries which is why you were seeing that in the last sort of three or four days. attacks on that air maintenance base not far from the polish border and the barracks there as well. and the military office as well. a reminder to the west that you supply these ukrainians with all these weapons, you are directly in our line of fire.

but it's the fact that he has bogged down in ukraine that is changing perhaps the perception of this war for him and not really, i think at this moment, sanctions. 0n the question of sanctions, the other question is sanctions busting and france has fallen on this in the past. both towards south africa but also towards russia and tell us a bit about the history of that. france did what most countries in the defence industry - which is create massive jobs. which is selling jobs whatever the political colouration. so they did it in south africa and it was... i arms for wine, wine for arms? and they did it to russia. they were not the only one doing it with russia. - they were not the only one doing it. the problem with sanctions, | because i have been working on sanctions on russian diamonds| in antwerp, is that they don't work

because they are circumvented. in the case of diamonds, - the russian diamond is forbidden by the eu, by the us, but in practice israel, | china and india are helping the russians by putting - all the russian diamonds together. with other diamonds and then selling to antwerp because you cannot see the difference. _ canadian or african or russian and that is true that sanctionsi are not working except long—term and i believe the sanctions - will really work and the financial. once through the payment system and the central banks. it's that lack of access to that fund, what 630 billion he put away, squirreled away for a war. so he could defend the bank if needed. now he cannot touch it, which is the way to apply sanctions. even on sanctions, there are exceptions being made with people, individuals sanctioned

but maybe their businesses are not because of fears about the consequences of damaging the businesses, employment and all the rest. if you look at the oligarchs who were sanctioned, it's remarkable that some have been targeted and some have escaped. russia's richest man you would think might be on the list that he might be somehow connected to the kremlin, but he has not been sanctioned that's because he owns or has a big chunk of a big nickel producer. likewise the us and the uk and the eu sanctioned alisher usmanov who used to own part of arsenal and now part of everton and they sanctioned him and blocked his yacht and various things but gave a licence to some of his companies to continue trading because they are worried about disruption in the metals market. and because they learned that in 2018 when the us sanctioned 0leg

and they did not realise by sanctioning him, they were sanctioning one of the biggest aluminium producers and that caused mayhem in the aluminium markets. and so i think they are very wary of market disruption... france has been at the forefront of the sanctions this time - because macron there is head of the eu and he has been. the coordinator for the eu, i tough sanctions, much more than britain and atl the level of the us. and of course it's very difficult to get all the eu 27 membersl because you have the hardliners i which are mostly eastern european and then germany, finland - who depend on gas from russia. and you have to find a compromise, and i find that the french this time i i have done really well with the eui and the proof is emmanuel macron and his ratings have i

gone from 23% to 31%. that of course is the ultimate sanction, cutting off oil and cutting off gas and if you did that, maybe putin listens. and what we have at the moment our promises to end it by the year or in a year's time in the eu and that the uk level. talk is a little bit about the experience that ukrainians are living with in the moment. those who have stayed in the country, those obviously in kyiv, where some tried to stay in their homes and obviously many of left but as many must have remained. it's hell. there is no question about it. you have got places like kharkiv, mariupol and 0desa which are under siege. access is cut off. that means food, water, _ access is cut off. that means food, water, medicine all that stuff cannot— water, medicine all that stuff cannot get in. all the cities are full of either

young or the old and all men are away fighting and it's mainly women and children who have been spirited out of the country as refugees to moldova, poland and so on. and it's a nightmare for these people not knowing what the future holds. i mean, they are constantly in underground basements, life is lived subterraneously now across many big cities because of the fear of air raids and so on. and there isjust a sense that at some point, there will be a concerted land push into these areas and then what happens? and that's the big fear. i mean, this is... i've covered a number of conflicts through my career, and this is two big modern armies going at each other with no

help from the outside, not yemen, not bosnia, not a number of conflicts that have sort of risen in infamy over the last 20 or 30 years. this is the 1930s—1940s in the heart of europe. it's really quite astonishing. joe biden announced this week additional military help, i think $800 million, he was very keen to stress that some of that money was going to be on anti—aircraft operations and reasonably a kind of a signal to ukraine and to his nato allies in europe that having blocked poland transferring its aircraft via the state to ukraine to help the ukrainians, that he was doing something concrete. do you think it will have been enough to kind of pacify those frustrations with some even in the us congress feeling at the moment about the limits of what america and other countries are prepared to do?

he is trying to do as much as he possibly can without trying to antagonise putin further. president zelensky give this address to members of congress this week underscoring the need for additional help and i think the military support is the least that they can do and there may be a lot more they can do. it looks like this prospect of getting the migs in is off the table even though the ukrainians say we need it but they are doing incredibly well just with the anti—aircraft equipment that they have got. some of it i think they need still training on, some of the new stuff that is being supplied. but i think that the us and europe are giving everything they can in terms of sanctions and military support because they don't want to get involved in a direct military confrontation with a nuclear power. the problem is president zelensky's address to the germans has shownl is that germany is very reluctant -

to force the eu to help more ukraine because of their reliance on gas because the fact that it's - a coalition where you have the - greens, so this be another return, so they've done a great effort with defence by increasing. production and on the whole - the germans are really for the first time in europe, in. the eu, in the back, they are not participating. 0n the nato side, the secretary general announced this week there will be a special summit on the 24th of march. joe biden says he is coming to that, which reasonably is an indication about the need for some face time again between the nato partners.

is there any prospect do you think of that signalling any kind of change of approach by nato? there will be a much tougher. attitude because of the pressure of public opinion in the countries which they have discussed - what we are seeing on television and the refugees and all that. i the problem again is germany because ifjoe biden does noti personally choose to get along with all the europeans, - and eastern europe, | to reinforce ukraine, europe won't be able to do more. i so, the us i think will not do more | either and as a consequence it might be a missed opportunity. picking up on that point, i think you are going to see a shift with nato's attitude and i think what nato has been doing since this war began is say what it's not willing to do. i think you will start seeing a bit more of a proactive move towards saying what they will do. because i was wondering why does president zelensky keep making out

about a no—fly zone when he knows they are not going to be given that. but there may be levels beneath that. and it may well be that you hear certain announcements that might suggest that there is going to be a little bit more active a role, but stephanie is right, the last thing you want is annoying a nuclear power. with someone at the helm who is willing to push the button. now compared to brezhnev or gorbachev or any of the former soviet leaders, none of them i suspect were willing to press the button. i think there is a belief that putin might be one of those guys. there is part here because putin is not a leader who was born during the war. he is of that generation who don't remember that as most of our leaders don't now, and certainly in some sense leaders tended to be older, almost universally, but mostly

in that is a significant change, someone who does not remember what total war is like and what it gives to europe. khrushchev of course... he backed off. and did not remain leaderfor a very long. that might be another listing in history. —— lesson in history. i don't know if that is really the issue that might push putin over the edge or not, i think there are other things going on. yeah, i mean the interesting thing about... there is been some sign of hope that maybe we could get some sort of negotiated peace deal, but people think about it as the ukrainians and the russians sitting down across that table, but the other party is nato. the us, they cannot do a deal without some sort of, for instance, i don't think russia would sign up to any kind of deal without a promise to roll back at least some of the sanctions, maybe say if the russians agree to withdraw some of their troops in exchange for the lifting of the restrictions in freezing

the central bank... that would've have to be part of the deal, _ that would've have to be part of the deal. i _ that would've have to be part of the deal, i would that would've have to be part of the deal, iwould have that would've have to be part of the deal, i would have thought. so it's notjust a very simple calculation or negotiation because there is this other thing hanging on the negotiations that could influence that. is that your sense is well is that putin is not interested in a deal right now on these terms because some of the movement this week has been a lot more positive and effectively it looked like president zelensky was conceding neutrality? it looked like ukraine is neutral and that will be for sure - that they won't join the eu, that was never a question l to join nato anyway, - it was an excuse of putin. something to knock down for him. the question of neutrality is a de facto guarantee, l but the problem is if you have a situation of world war i, - a complete military stalemate l

and then that might push putin, he will be quite happy- with the separation of east and west ukraine so that- will push him to compromise. in the sense, borisjohnson said this week that he thinks the terrible mistake was 2014 when the west did not do enough to respond to the annexation of crimea and having already taken the part that ukraine is not part of ukraine any more, it's quite hard to go to war over let's say donestk and luhansk. he's starting with crimea, but i will go back to 1999 and chechnya and then we go to aleppo and syria. we had all this stuff with ben wallace talking about appeasement at the beginning of the war. the appeasement began in 1999. it is as simple as that, when grozhny was levelled. that is where the west fell down on its own principles and everything that it believes it stands for.

for some reason, none of that mattered when it came to massacring people in chechnya, and that is where this whole crisis starts. i think the real question here is this only ends with some sort of negotiated settlement. and what russia has demanded, which is recognition of crimea as russian territory, allowing donestk and luhansk to be recognised as independent states and neutrality for ukraine, now the neutrality for ukraine is the easy part, right? those two other things are really hard for president zelensky to accept. and i don't see how you get to a deal without solving those two things. and him saving face. so you've a situation where putin needs an offering,

but zelensky need a deal he gets out of the public and in a weird way putin has an easier time. he can try to dress up whatever deal he gets and deploy his propaganda a machine to say it's a triumph and there is the access to independent media has been cut off in russia. so he has a much easier time. the ukrainians say we've gone through all this, my house destroyed, my family destroyed, cities levelled, we go through all this and you give him ukraine, sorry crimea, officially give him crimea and you give him that sort of quarter of the country in the east? they have not really done that with the deal that was negotiated in minsk, the minsk process effectively had done that anyway, in some fact at least. i think realistically most ukrainians would not be expecting crimea to be... they've given up on it. interesting because what they have

gone through it now, that's changed. probably has changed that calculation. an even harder thing is look at the russian advance in the south where they have made more gains. that is where they have been somewhat successful, so what do you do with mariupol? they are trying to develop this corridor, is russia really going to withdraw from those areas? unlikely, highly unlikely. so there is one option of a negotiated settlement but the other option which is looking pretty likely is that this grinds on for months and months if not longer. we have not mentioned to china in all of this as well. i wanted to come onto this because friday there was a discussion between president putin and president xi and that has huge potential. is there the sense of the mere fact they were willing to talk on this... you meanjoe biden and xi jinping? yes, sorry, they have not spoken very much and we had one other phone call with great effort to get that but is that a good sign?

a positive sign? do they both have reason to want to get this resolved? it is a positive sign. the only way that russia escapes the punishing sanctions is if china comes and bails them out, either with potential military support or buying more oil and gas and keeping russia and their economy going. so china is a really crucial player here if they decide to help russia out, then this could go on for quite a long time. remember the sanctions, - if the west put the same sanctions on china that they had put on russia... - which is what biden has threatened to do. which he has threatened to do - and that could work to make china hesitant to help moscow. but also the fact that russia being in league with china,

they had the no holds barred deal just before the war started. does xi jinping want to be saddled with a loser? does he want to be saddled with a russia that is a pariah around the world, has sanctions on it, that is bringing down the prestige of the chinese? this is a difficult decision that he has got to make. does he stick with the guy he thought he had or does he cut and run now? thank you all very much. great to see you all here and definitely to have your company for dateline this week. and we are back around this table at the same time next week with a good question from clive to leave us with there, is putin now a loser? we will not know the answer that for perhaps months to come. goodbye.

despite the sunshine many of us would agree it feels on the cold side, particularly the wind. the skies are clear with lots of fine weather around and that will lead to a frost tonight. thanks to this high pressure, which will stick around for the weekend and into next week but around this area of high pressure, the winds are pretty strong, blowing in from the east and the sea is very chilly this time of the year. in fact, the temperatures around coastal areas are seven or eight degrees. that wind blows off the sea gusting to around 30mph and drags that chilly air off the water inland and then it feels cold. of course it does warm up a little bit inland. up to around 13 or 1a degrees.

in western parts of scotland, we have more shelter with temperatures going up to 17 degrees so hints of spring across this part of the world. tonight, clearskies with the nagging wind out there but where the wind falls light, particularly inland, there will be a touch of frost, probably around freezing in rural areas and two or three degrees above freezing in city centres. high pressure still with us tomorrow. this area of cloud across the netherlands and belgium is heading our way and for some of us it will be a bit more cloudy on sunday, maybe a few more showers around in east anglia and the south—east. it starts off sunny and breezy and chilly first thing and the area of cloud from belgium and the netherlands moves into east anglia and maybe brings a couple of showers. many central areas from the south to the north lots of sunshine around. a bit chilly on north sea course

and about nine degrees in newcastle with the wind blowing off the north sea. monday and tuesday, the wind switches from the south and it will be much milder. i would say it is even going to feel warm and a really promising outlook for the second half of the week. temperatures up to 17 or 18 and will probably touch 20 degrees, fingers crossed, for the first time this year.

this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm lewis vaughan jones. russian forces advance into mariupol — with fighting now reported in the centre of the city. the russia invasion of ukraine continues — trapped for 30 hours under rubble after shelling in the city of mikolayiv a ukrainian soldier is pulled out alive. very tense year, looks like there are planes overhead and rubbing totally very weakly which is what we are doing now. you 80% of buildings in the port city mariupol have been damaged by the russian assault. those who've managed to get out

describe what they've fled. translation: there