this is bbc news — the headlines: the united nations�* refugee agency says ten million ukrainians have now fled their homes because of the war — almost a quarter of the population. it described the speed and scale of the displacement as unprecedented in recent decades. nearly three—and—a—half—million people have left the country since russia invaded. the ukrainian government's rejected a russian demand to surrender the besieged southern city of mariupol, hours before a deadline set by moscow. the deputy prime minister iryna vereshchuk said there could be no question of soldiers laying down their arms. russia has offered to give fighters safe passage out of mariupol. ukrainian president has addressed the israeli parliament becoming the first foreign leader in history to do

so. volodymyr zelensky, who is ofjewish heritage, questioned of jewish heritage, questioned the ofjewish heritage, questioned the russian —— israeli reluctance to provide the renowned irony dome missile defence system to his besieged country. now news it is time for talking business. hello and welcome to talking business with me, aaron hassell hurst. let's have a look at what is on the show. in the west and its reliance on russia's vast oil and gas reserves? as vladimir putin continues the bombardment of ukrainian cities, europe continues to purchase fossil fuels from moscow but for how much longer? i will be discussing all of that with the head of the international energy agency, the iaea and the former boss of oil giant bp. also on the show, with energy prices on the up, the aviation industry faces another tough year. so i speak to the boss of delta airlines about the cost

of flying in 2022. wherever you arejoining me from around the world, hello and welcome to the show. events in ukraine are continuing to reverberate around the world. and as the death toll grows, so did the calls for further punitive sanctions to be placed on russia. western allies have so far acted with unprecedented co—ordination to get everything from russian central banks to its wealthiest individuals but, so far, sanctions on the country's most valuable export, oil and gas, have been more uneven with europe unwilling, for now at least, to turn off the tap. here is why. russia is the tap. here is why. russia is the third biggest producer of

oil in the world. pumping close to 11 million barrels of the black stuff every day. more than half of its oil exports go to europe. russia is also the world's second biggest producer of natural gas and accounts for 40% of the eu �*s gas imports. and all of this means that last year alone, and all of this means that last yearalone, russia and all of this means that last year alone, russia exported over $240 billion in oil and natural gas. placing an embargo on those exports would be devastating for the economy. but it would also lead to soaring global energy prices, rampant inflation and, possibly, a global recession. the problem is that by continuing to purchase russian foreign —— fossil fuel, continuing to purchase russian foreign —— fossilfuel, the west is inadvertently funding this more in ukraine. the big boss, the executive director of the international energy agency spoke to me a little earlier about this uncomfortable predict demand. always good to see you and thank you for your time. let's start with this, is oil at $100 a barrel? is that

the new normal now? i think when you — the new normal now? i think when you look— the new normal now? i think when you look at _ the new normal now? i think when you look at the - when you look at the fundamentals just before the crisis, i would say, it was a very high number but, given the fact that we are seeing the invasion of ukraine by russia sending shockwaves around the oil market, i think the $100 we are experiencing today may not be the highest price we will see in the weeks to come. find see in the weeks to come. and how much _ see in the weeks to come. and how much will _ see in the weeks to come. and how much will these _ see in the weeks to come. and how much will these higher oil prices dent and hurt the global economy at a time when we are already seeing consumer prices and pretty much everything rising at an unprecedented rate? , , ., rate? currently we estimate that the current _ rate? currently we estimate that the current price - rate? currently we estimate| that the current price levels, if they continue, like this, it

can drop off close to one percentage point from gdp but, of course, nobody knows how the geopolitical developments will look like and how will they affect energy markets further. the biggest chunk of what comes, of course, wash itself, the russian economy i think 30%, close to 30% of the russian economy can be cut off as a result. russian economy can be cut off as a result-— as a result. india is looking to purchase _ as a result. india is looking to purchase russian - as a result. india is looking to purchase russian oil - as a result. india is looking to purchase russian oil at. as a result. india is looking| to purchase russian oil at a possible massive discount because western nations are refusing to take it. but aren't theyjust refusing to take it. but aren't they just cutting refusing to take it. but aren't theyjust cutting the legs out from under the western sanctions?— from under the western sanctions? ~ , ., ., ., from under the western sanctions? , ., ., ., ., sanctions? we see that a lot of russian oil. — sanctions? we see that a lot of russian oil, the _ sanctions? we see that a lot of russian oil, the tankers - sanctions? we see that a lot of russian oil, the tankers are - russian oil, the tankers are looking for buyers because even though they will not be sanctioned directly by the us

or europe or other countries there is a bias that they may have some trouble, financial trouble through western financial institutions. so as a result, they are discounting the price of oil and i would not be surprised that one country or another would make use of that. having said that, you want to be careful. to buy those barrels may have two implications, one forthe implications, one for the buyers, implications, one forthe buyers, a certain financial transaction here and there are grey areas as to which part get sanctioned and which part does not. second every single dollar of oil going to russia economy will go back as a tank or a

bullet to the ukrainian people. so there is a moral aspect. the united states _ so there is a moral aspect. the united states has _ so there is a moral aspect. the united states has been pushing for more supply from nations such as venezuela and possibly even iran. not exactly a bastian for democracy though is it? ., . ., , ., ., it? there are countries around the world _ it? there are countries around the world who _ it? there are countries around the world who have _ it? there are countries around the world who have significantj the world who have significant amount of spare oil in them, especially those in the middle east. they have been, in difficult times in their history they have been responsible, they brought oil to the markets but on this occasion unfortunately i am not seeing them being as responsible as before. it is,

really, a desperate economic situation if we will see a major decline, ora situation if we will see a major decline, or a recession, as we saw in the 1970s, the oil price shocks, this would be bad news not only for consumers but for all of us. so there for i urge all producing companies to bring oil to the market as soon as possible in order to prevent as possible in order to prevent a significant supply shock. briefly let's go back to that. could you be suggesting that, of the back of this, we could see a global recession? i think when we look _ see a global recession? i think when we look at _ see a global recession? i think when we look at the _ see a global recession? i think when we look at the 1970s - see a global recession? i think when we look at the 1970s we | when we look at the 1970s we have seen two oil price shocks. they led to major recessions and at the same time a surgeon inflation and if the prices

continue at these levels for some time i would not exclude that we may see difficulty for the global economic recovery and even a recession. fin the global economic recovery and even a recession. on that note, and even a recession. on that note. always _ and even a recession. on that note, always appreciate - and even a recession. on that note, always appreciate your| note, always appreciate your time. thank you and we will talk to you soon. so, has rushes actions created an inflection point for the future of global energy supply and demand. to find out i spoke to lord brown, the former ceo of bp, one of the world's biggest oil companies. he expanded the company's footprint in russia and is credited with helping to shift industries approach to climate change. he now chairs beyond net zero an investment fund that specialises in supporting companies that offer solutions to tackle climate change tojohn, welcome to talking business. you have met and negotiated with president

vladimir putin and when you are about bp. i was wondering if you ever thought we would be in this situation today? i you ever thought we would be in this situation today?— this situation today? i had a little inkling _ this situation today? i had a little inkling that _ this situation today? i had a little inkling that one - this situation today? i had a little inkling that one day i little inkling that one day something might have because, of course, oil and energy is both used as a weapon and a shield. both, by many people. in my career i recall going back to the 70s when the embargoes on oil to the west created a crisis and the prices went up and that was the middle east. so it comes and goes. but, actually, when i was dealing with president putin, i think there was a high degree of mutual need, they needed us to modernise them oil oil industry and to demonstrate that foreign investment could actually occur in the new russian republic. so that was a very different situation than

it is today. very different situation than it is today-— very different situation than it is toda .g ., ., i. ~ it is today. john, do you think it is today. john, do you think it is today. john, do you think it is effectively _ it is today. john, do you think it is effectively untenable - it is today. john, do you think it is effectively untenable to l it is effectively untenable to do business with russia, certainly in the immediate foreseeable future. clearly it is because — foreseeable future. clearly it is because they _ foreseeable future. clearly it is because they have - foreseeable future. clearly it is because they have done i is because they have done something that is objectionable to all of us, to create a humanitarian crisis of large proportion. completely uncalled for so the nations of the world are arrayed against russia. there for foreign policy directs, there forforeign policy directs, trade must there for foreign policy directs, trade must follow. you s - oke directs, trade must follow. you spoke about — directs, trade must follow. you spoke about back _ directs, trade must follow. you spoke about back in _ directs, trade must follow. you spoke about back in the 19705 spoke about back in the 1970s and i am wondering was it a mistake for nations to rely on russian resources? i mistake for nations to rely on russian resources?— mistake for nations to rely on russian resources? i thinki go back to a _ russian resources? i thinki go back to a churchillian - back to a churchillian statement that the only basis

for security is diversity. and, actually, that rule applies from the 1970s to today. and, yes, we have made mistakes we have made mistakes not by relying on someone but by over relying on someone but by over relying on someone but by over relying on not having enough choices and sometimes we are lulled into a sense of false security because of track record. for example, russian gas is flown to the west, anyway, unimpeded sincerely 90s and everyone said it is clearly and everyone said it is clearly a reliable supplier. it is still reliable but it is used as a sword, not something to enhance the economics of europe. enhance the economics of euro e. ~ ., enhance the economics of europe-— europe. we are now in a situation _ europe. we are now in a situation where - europe. we are now in a situation where we - europe. we are now in a situation where we see i europe. we are now in a i situation where we see the europe. we are now in a - situation where we see the west to all it can to decouple itself from russia and its vast

resources. cannot be done? without hurting themselves, if you will? ii without hurting themselves, if ou will? , ., ., ., without hurting themselves, if ou will? ., ., ., without hurting themselves, if ouwill? ., ., ., ., you will? if you have a lot of time you _ you will? if you have a lot of time you can _ you will? if you have a lot of time you can decouple - you will? if you have a lot of time you can decouple from | time you can decouple from almost anything. but it is happening quickly. that's the difficult bit. so for oil, people use less russian oil but, of course, the less that some nations use, the more that other nations will use because, in my experience, it is difficult. there are always people who will buy and if you say give me 50 cents on every dollar then many people will say ok let's figure out how we do this. so this is a very difficult situation but as far as the west is concerned i think oil can be taken out of the system it will be difficult but it can be done. natural gas, however, in mainland

europe is quite another matter. because it is literally tied with a pipeline and it is the fundamental basis for a lot of the economies, notably germany. to be clear, there are nations out there who will continue buying russian oil.- out there who will continue buying russian oil. there are alwa s buying russian oil. there are always people _ buying russian oil. there are always people who _ buying russian oil. there are always people who will - buying russian oil. there are always people who will buy l always people who will buy stuff which is embargoed or, not quite embargoed but, actually, sanctioned by other people for not importing into their countries. other people who don't have the same attitude will clearly buy the oil. and that has happened in the past and it will happen again. the past and it will happen aaain. ~ the past and it will happen aain.. ., , the past and it will happen aiain,. ., , ., the past and it will happen aain. ., ., ., , again. we also see a worrying icture again. we also see a worrying picture of _ again. we also see a worrying picture of nations _ again. we also see a worrying picture of nations talking - picture of nations talking about firing up coal plants and further fracking. about firing up coal plants and furtherfracking. i'm just wondering, is there a concern and worry that the ukraine

invasion could lead to further climate change disaster? i think there's a reasonably good chance that's the case but the question is for good chance that's the case but the question is for how good chance that's the case but the question is for how long. but i think the immediate response from anybody is let's do what we can. so fire up some coal plants, use those, everything we can. and that will probably put a blip in the path of getting down to net zero by 2050, so we will have to redouble efforts. equally, equally i would say that people are saying well, let's get more domestic energy. and the sources of domestic energy are renewables — that's wind and solar— and nuclear. and those, i think, are all on the agenda at the moment. right across the world. to say, well, let's do more of that.— world. to say, well, let's do more of that. and, john, you've one more of that. and, john, you've gone from _ more of that. and, john, you've gone from running _ more of that. and, john, you've gone from running certainly - more of that. and, john, you've gone from running certainly one of the biggest oil firms to

leading investment in clean energy, so what is going to take to get enough of this green energy production to wean ourselves off fossil fuels? 50. ourselves off fossil fuels? so, continuous — ourselves off fossil fuels? sr, continuous development of technology is very important indeed. we have enough technology today to do a very good job of getting down to net 0- good job of getting down to net 0— not quite. let's say we have 80% of the technology but it's a bit expensive, it has to be rolled out at scale to get the economies of scale, the so—called learning curves that all engineers love to see. the more you build, the cheaper it is, the more efficient it becomes. so we have that. what we don't have is the right commercial framework. we don't have is the right commercialframework. remember, commercial framework. remember, for many commercialframework. remember, for many years — and still in many cases — the oil and gas industry was sort of subsidised by taxes. they were given

write—offs and preferences and things like that. it's time now for the things like that. it�*s time now for the non— things like that. it's time now for the non— oil and gas energy business to get some kick—starts, where the risk is too high for the private sector — which is the most important thing here — to invest money. here in the uk, the labour party have suggested a windfall tax on oil companies, certainly at the moment to help people pay for, the consumer to pay for the higher energy bills. goodidea for the higher energy bills. good idea or not? actually, they are — good idea or not? actually, they are justifiable - good idea or not? actually, they are justifiable because j good idea or not? actually, i they are justifiable because in they are justifiable because in the end, the resources are owned by the nation. so i would remind everybody except in the united states, there is some exceptions in the us, was everywhere in the world, when you go and explore and produce oil and gas, you are doing it under a license. and the license is given under certain conditions. now, you need to make sure most nations want to

keep people interested in what they are doing because they cannotjust they are doing because they cannot just say we will tax 100% because they will stop working, it's always a fine balance between how much do you let the rent owner have and how much do you take for the nation? so when it's outrageous and stays there, then i think it's not unreasonable to expect the nation to take a bigger portion of the rent to the treasury. portion of the rent to the treasury-_ portion of the rent to the treasury. portion of the rent to the treasu . g ., , ., treasury. so, john, while you were the _ treasury. so, john, while you were the boss _ treasury. so, john, while you were the boss of— treasury. so, john, while you were the boss of bp, - treasury. so, john, while you were the boss of bp, you - were the boss of bp, you expanded operations in russia. and you certainly had very close ties to the russian energy sector. in the subsequent years. do you regret that nowadays, looking at the devastation we are seeing unfolding in ukraine? i think context changes _ unfolding in ukraine? i think context changes everything l unfolding in ukraine? i think. context changes everything but while we were doing it, i absolutely didn't object to it. i supported it, absolutely didn't object to it. isupported it, i absolutely didn't object to it. i supported it, i thought it was very important, and the reason it was important was it

both brought oil and gas to the world and, at that time, that was the thing that drove the development of the world, right across the board. very important, better standard of living. and of course, it was where there was reciprocity, you know? bp was bringing managerial content, technical content organisational content and a reputation that you can do business there. russia was bringing derelict oil fields, bad management, lack of technology, and it was sort of a marriage which should happen. and that balance of activity, you know, between what you could bring and what you owned, but made a match that worked at the time. and over time, of course, that was different. i think it became very clear that

russia was basically, i think one commentator said it's like a very small economy with a big gas station attached. and, in some ways, but semi— true, that the politics, the foreign affairs of russia were heavily directed by what the leadership could say about oil and gas. and when that became clearer and clearer and clearer, then i think the balance of the advantage changed. talking of forei i n advantage changed. talking of foreign affairs _ advantage changed. talking of foreign affairs - _ advantage changed. talking of foreign affairs - and _ advantage changed. talking of foreign affairs - and with - advantage changed. talking of foreign affairs - and with all i foreign affairs — and with all due respect, i have to ask this, because you went back into the oil and gas business even after — with a russian oligarch, russian billionaire, mikal freeman who is now on the sanctions list, even after the britain regime annexed crimea. i mean, how does that sit with you —— vladimir putin regime. i did indeed. formally, i lived in 2020. this and so, i went there to set up an oil and gas

company for him, primarily gas, which i did in the hope that it could be run appropriately and for good values, which i think it did. so i don't...— it did. so i don't... regrets on that one? _ it did. so i don't... regrets on that one? none - it did. so i don't... regrets on that one? none at - it did. so i don't... regrets on that one? none at all. l it did. so i don't... regrets. on that one? none at all. and actually. _ on that one? none at all. and actually. and _ on that one? none at all. and actually, and maybe - on that one? none at all. and actually, and maybe i- on that one? none at all. and actually, and maybe i would l actually, and maybe i would think if the world was a little bit sharper to its response to the annexation of crimea, then we would all have them different i think. indeed. on that note. — different i think. indeed. on that note, lord _ different i think. indeed. on that note, lord browne, - different i think. indeed. on. that note, lord browne, thank you so much for your time. much appreciated. you know, with pandemic restrictions easing in much of the world, there are high hopes that the battered airline industry would be flying high again in 2022. however, rising oil prices as a result of the war in ukraine have now put that recovery under threat. have now put that recovery underthreat. globaljet fuel under threat. global jet fuel prices, they underthreat. globaljet fuel prices, they surged near 1a hi earlier this year. four months. i sat down with a bastion, the big boss of delta air lines, one of the world public biggest

carriers, and started by asking him to stop these higher prices will mean for the cost of flying. will mean for the cost of fl ini. �* , ., ., will mean for the cost of flini. h ., ., ., , flying. it's going to go up. you need _ flying. it's going to go up. you need to _ flying. it's going to go up. you need to be _ flying. it's going to go up. you need to be able - flying. it's going to go up. you need to be able to . flying. it's going to go up. l you need to be able to push forward your cost of production it would business you're in. now, in the us, we are not allowed to put surcharges onto our products, all of our domestic flying, we actually have to get it into our base pricing, so it takes a little bit longer typically. we can increase the price but it is a competitive battle with all of the airlines the airlines are struggling between the rising fuel, maintaining their revenues and their market share. so itjust takes longer in the us to get filtered through pricing as compared to international, where you are able to identify a specific surcharge and put that on your ticket. so international is very different so the international recovery tends to be faster than the us. but sta ini be faster than the us. but staying with _ be faster than the us. but staying with higher ticket prices, can you give me an idea how much higher in cost are we talking about? it how much higher in cost are we talking about?— talking about? it really depends where - talking about? it really depends where fuel. talking about? it really i depends where fuel prices settle out, they have been all over the map from $130 and

maybe a bit below that but i would say the average ticket price is probably about $25 on a ticket. i could be anywhere between 5— 10% at these high levels of oil. between 5- 1096 at these high levels of oil.— levels of oil. and i would imagine _ levels of oil. and i would imagine more _ levels of oil. and i would imagine more for- levels of oil. and i would - imagine more for international. international would be higher than that, yeah. internationalwould be higher than that, yeah.— internationalwould be higher than that, yeah. when it comes to sustainability, _ than that, yeah. when it comes to sustainability, i _ than that, yeah. when it comes to sustainability, i mean, - to sustainability, i mean, delta plans or aim is to fly 10% with sustainable fuel by 2030. i'mjust 10% with sustainable fuel by 2030. i'm just wondering if this crisis and the higher oil prices means that you are going to have to invest more in getting to that number. well, were doing — getting to that number. well, were doing everything - getting to that number. well, were doing everything we - getting to that number. well, were doing everything we can| getting to that number. well, i were doing everything we can to get there and in the current crisis, it's not making it easier because it's just pushing up the price to get to the future but what we need aaron is the government, us government, who continues to be quite receptive, to create the bridge between us and the energy producers. the energy producers want to create sustainable aviation fuels. the

airlines want to purchase it. but right now, the cost to produce versus the cost of buying is of a level of 305 times what is in the marketplace today. so that's where government can help stop the investment and create some scale —— 3—5 times. irate the investment and create some scale -- 3-5 times.— scale -- 3-5 times. we know that the _ scale -- 3-5 times. we know that the war _ scale -- 3-5 times. we know that the war in _ that the war in ukraine and all the economic consequences that it's causing around the world could not have come at a worse time for your industry. you are alljust time for your industry. you are all just getting time for your industry. you are alljust getting out, over the recovery from the pandemic. so i want to know what are your biggest fears now? what keeps you awake?— you awake? world is returning to travel and _ you awake? world is returning to travel and governments - you awake? world is returning l to travel and governments have decided that covid—19 is done. and it's freedom, free to roam, free to move into the world is moving. we're seeing some of our largest bookings we've ever had in our history and it's not just in the us, it's internationally as well and that's encouraging, given we still have our full system not up still have our full system not up and running it, in asia it is still pretty low in terms of

the travel lines. biggest thing we are doing right now is making sure we have all of our staff in place. we have our product fully restored, we are bringing back catering, we are bringing back catering, we are bringing back catering, we are bringing back the amenities, we are making certain people have everything they need to get our services and our premium services and our premium service where it needs to be. that's been a focus for sometime and it's paying off because we hired over 10,000 people in usjust in the because we hired over 10,000 people in us just in the last 12 months and this year we will properly hire another five or 10,000 on top of that. let's talk about — 10,000 on top of that. let's talk about the _ 10,000 on top of that. let's talk about the lucrative - 10,000 on top of that. let's| talk about the lucrative part, typically, of an airline which is business class. you're at what percentage today, in terms of return? , ., ., of return? currently we are at about 6096 — of return? currently we are at about 6096. that's _ of return? currently we are at about 6096. that's what - of return? currently we are at about 6096. that's what you i of return? currently we are at i about 6096. that's what you are also were _ about 6096. that's what you are also were back _ about 6096. that's what you are also were back in _ about 6096. that's what you are also were back in december- about 6096. that's what you are also were back in december sol also were back in december so i'm wondering how fast i a back...? it's pretty quick bounce back because when 0micron hit in the us, we got down to about 30— a0%. find omicron hit in the us, we got down to about 30- 4096. and so in recent weeks, _ down to about 30- 4096. and so in recent weeks, it's _ down to about 30- 4096. and so in recent weeks, it's come - down to about 30- 4096. and so in recent weeks, it's come fast i in recent weeks, it's come fast and i think by the summer, that number should easily be 70% or north of that as we go. so,

business, you know, return of business, you know, return of business is, you know, everyone has an opinion, it seems like. i realise there's forms of business travel that will never return, but a more efficient to handle over video technology. i also acknowledge will be many reasons why people travel like business travellers travel or consumers are buying the premium services that we offer, that we often equate to business but actually, i consume an hour. and that premium segment of our business has never been stronger. let premium segment of our business has never been stronger.- has never been stronger. let me end on a money _ has never been stronger. let me end on a money question. - has never been stronger. let me end on a money question. you i end on a money question. you had huge losses, like nearly all airlines around the world. last year the like $3.4 billion and you were hoping, i believe in the second half of year to return to profit. can you still do that, given what we've been talking about — certainly the higher oil prices? mr; higher oil prices? my expectations - higher oil prices? my expectations are - higher oil prices? ii’i expectations are we higher oil prices? ii expectations are we will be profitable this year and not just stop make a little bit. we meaningful profit, it won't be back 2019 levels just yet,

first quarter of the year we will lose some money, primarily because of 0micron. it's not fuel prices. but i do expect starting on the second quarter and beyond, we will be profitable.— and beyond, we will be profitable. and beyond, we will be rofitable. ., ., profitable. on that note, ed bastian, always _ profitable. on that note, ed bastian, always a _ profitable. on that note, ed bastian, always a pleasure. | bastian, always a pleasure. good luck with everything. that's all for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. following on twitter, tweet me and will tweet you back. thanks for watching and i will see you soon. goodbye. hello again. temperatures reached 15 celsius on sunday, not quite as warm as saturday but still pretty good for this time of year. over the next few hours there is a risk of seeing an odd patch of rain just

razing the eastern coast of england, also an odd patch in northern ireland where cloudy, we are keeping the frost at bay but for many of us, it's a cold one, a cold start to monday morning with a widespread frost in place. temperatures at the lowest about —6 in aberdeenshire. should be a lovely start of the day with plenty of sunshine around. an outside chance of a shower for eastern areas of scotland and some patches of cloud working on across the country from the south—west but still for most of us, it's a dry day, long spells of spring sunshine and in the spring sunshine it's starting to get a bit warm across england and wales, still some calare hanging on across scotland, northern ireland and the far north of england. however we are looking at a warming trend and over the next couple of days, will rise, bridge 20 in the warmest spots over the next couple of days.

welcome to bbc news. i'm david eades. our top stories: 10 million people have now fled their homes in ukraine since the start of russia's invasion — nearly a quarter of the population. millions of them are children, some of whom escaped from the besieged city of mariupol and are left with life—changing injuries. all of these are victims of russian attacks. it is notjust the physical injuries. many of these children have deep psychological trauma that they will perhaps never get over. russia's deadline for the defenders of mariupol to lay down their arms comes and goes, but there's no sign of surrender. and the legacy of war.

we examine how this conflict could be redrawing the world as we know it.