he is the perma—crisis chancellor if you like, he has only known one economic emergency after another and, as you say, we have known for some time, haven't we, that inflation was on the way up. we have known that there was going to be huge pressure for people, particularly from energy bills. that was already going to be the case, that money was going less far before the invasion of ukraine, that, of course, has exacerbated and accelerated that, so the backdrop to the chancellor's spring statement, which is not as big a deal as a budget, tougher by the day. but what was fascinating about the set of political choices that rishi sunak made, because they are a set of political choices, was that any wriggle room he had, he held some of it back, for when things get worse, which people expect them to, but some of it all so he put towards tax cuts and the promise of a tax cut in two years time.

not real tax cuts, but the promise of a tax cut in two years time, really trying to polish up his own kind of status in the conservative party, because genuinely i think he believes that he wants to cut taxes, but also he wants other people to see him that way. the problem is him trying to create this image of himself as a tax cutter is one, one of the tax cuts is a promise of something in two years time that he cannot guarantee, because he does not even know what energy bills are going to be in six months and he might not even be chancellor. secondly, the other tax cut that he talked about, taking more people out of having to pay national insurance, is a partial reversal of the tax rise that he himself introduced and overall, he is the chancellor who has raised taxes very, very significantly, so the opposition and his critics and some people in the tory party have said, actually, he is doing a bit of a hokey cokey here, there is smoke and mirrors around. the other day, i was channelling my inner adam fleming, because someone has got to do it when he is not here, when he still had the two red bars of doom and reading, because i missed it at the time, because it was right at the start,

i think it was on the day in fact, that russia had invaded ukraine, of the chancellor's lecture at a business school in london. field of corn. which was, the kind of essence of rishi sunak as, his economic philosophy, really, and it was all talking about adam smith, the guy who was seen as kind of the father of free markets and all that kind of stuff, and his big central desire, in the end, to have a smaller state, that the government cannot solve all of our problems, classic kind of conservative chancellor kind of thinking, and yet, as you say, here he is, because of the circumstances of a pandemic and now what he is facing now, coupled with his own political choices, with a bigger tax burden and a bigger spending state than has happened in our lifetimes and in the lifetimes of lots of newscasters, leaving him in a situation where the only way he can kind of burnish that political sense of wanting to be seen to be a tax cutter, is to promise something that might never happen in a couple

of years, coupled with a tax cut that is actually chipping off a bit of what you were saying was a tax rise! and there are, you know, some measures in there that are going to help people, you know, 5p of fuel duty, less than the amount that we know petrol has gone up by, but 5p off fuel duty, a bit of extra money to help people who will struggle most with their energy bills, but there is a real sense, even among ministers, and i have to say, some ministers i talked to today have being really scathing, actually, not necessarily about the individual measures, but the impression that rishi sunak has given, it is a kind of wait and see until things get really, really bad, before he is actually going to give people any more help, but that sort of disconnect. one minister was saying to me, actually, right now, the public wants the state to help them, politics is not in a place where the population is in the mood for that kind of lean, low tax, agile, we are just not in that kind of moment and one minister was saying to me, the reason why the tories are so successful is because they kind of read the room, they read what the country wants in that particular moment.

boris johnson was wanting to embrace big spending. their claim was that rishi sunak has actually demonstrated, in the last 2a hours, and it is one view, and his team would deny it, that actually he is maybe less able to read what the public wants, than he would like to believe so quite sharp criticism and fascinating. let us give give people a reminder, look at the front pages this morning, even the conservative supporting bits of the press, really scathing about that kind... i know we have been chatting to mps about it as well. i went over the road to parliament and first of all, someone made exactly that point, of this juncture between the broad reception, positive reception that the chancellor seemed to get when he met his backbenchers immediately afterwards and then, people were waving their paper and all of that, and then the front pages, and then i was talking to a minister who does not normally shoot their mouth off, who said it was tinkering, there were little bits here and there that people

will barely notice, because either the petrol station does not pass on the tax cut, or the price of oil goes up by more than that and it just gets overtaken by events, someone also, and they did not mean this as a compliment, because they were on the conservative side, compared it to some of gordon brown's budgets, let us tinker here and let us remove that and stealthy little things that don't really add up to much. then, and this is a more sort of a micro—political point, people taking the mickey out of him and this is quite interesting in terms of his brand and his, you know, future ambitions. there is the business of the car he filled up with petrol that was not his, that was the sort of photo op connected to the 5p cut in duty. that sense that perhaps, as this conservative put it, not quite grasping the scale of the challenge, that this would be a massive, as the government acknowledges, this would be a massive challenge for any government to take at any time, but given the taxing and spending of the last few years, are they sufficiently inclined, as some see it, to want to do it

again, or try to get into a more traditional conservative space? look, inflation is a nightmare for any government, right? it is a nightmare and there is a limit to what they can do about it. rishi sunak�*s team i think would say that they need, other bits of the government, but also the public, they need them to understand that there are limits to what any government can do and we are seeing that and seeing that in other countries and seeing that from what he is saying, but, you know, is it worth betting 50p that in the next few months he is going to be back at the dispatch box, last of the big spenders, 50p, let us make it a whole pound, is it worth a small bet that he will be back at the dispatch box having to announce more support, whether that is for energy bills or whether it is doing something else on benefits, because there is no mention of increases to benefit yesterday, no mention also, there has not been much talk about this and we will get

into this with our guests in a moment, i think, what does this also mean for other government budgets? because the government's cash will go less far as well. when it comes to inflation. if you are, the department for transport, trying to build all the roads that borisjohnson has promised, 5% fewer roads, are we going to have fewer new hospitals been built? because everything is going to cost more and it is going to cost more for the government as well as all of us. last thought, i actually think that perhaps any of the detail of yesterday is just going to be completely swamped actually by the sort of roar of inflation coming in at the rate that it might do. the tricky thing then is, if you're in the treasury, you think, you funded a tax cut and it does not really, it cost you money, but it does not really get you anywhere politically. and you have given away what might have been your big election giveaway, so you already promised that income tax cut in the elections, so what are you going to promise next? voters do notjust go, oh, thank you so much for what you have already promised me, it is what is next, what is next? and of course, don't forget, rishi sunak has got a next—door neighbour who is quite fond

of getting him to write big checks for big projects, the grand ideas... and there is a philosophical difference now, it would appear. so, a rishi sunak budget and there are going to be people in the tory party who might quietly have a little bit of schadenfreude, might be quite happy that sort of rishi sunak image might have taken a little bit of a knock. maybe even some people in number 10. because it was a rishi sunak budget, this was not a borisjohnson budget and we are in relationship, probably a more traditional number io — numberii relationship, where number 11 does not share everything it does not have to do with number 10. that old idea that dominic cummings had that there would be this great, you know, joint team, a nerve centre of government... sajid javid packing it in as chancellor and rishi sunak coming in. exactly, we are not in that world.

you know, there is a number 10 world view and there is a you know, there is a number 10 world view and there is a number 11 world view and they do not always join up. they are very different characters in so many different ways. and that, to an extent, kind of, what matters to so many people now is the bills they are facing, politics is secondary to that and a general election isi million miles down the track, potentially, but the extent to which this coming crunch around the cost of living could have massive political implications. how this government is perceived and how electorally viable it is at the next election is huge, isn't it, if people start thinking, particularly if people start blaming, which they may or may not, but start blaming the government for the predicament so many people could find themselves in pretty soon. and it is hard to have a feel—good factor for any government when people are feeling skint. now, i do not want you to take offence, i don't want to make you feel bad about that feel—good factor, but i am going to chuck you out. it is that moment! off to your cupboard of news. after my glorious week of solitude, when you and adam were away, i'm going to return...

now he says! well, you've got to seize these moments. right, off you go. i'm going to vacate the seat for the big brains of economics that are going tojoin us. marvellous, all right, i'll chat to you in a second. i'm taking my water, though, i tell you. so, now chris is in the cupboard and it has made space for our guest tonight. rupert harrison, who now works for blackrock, the giant investment company, but was chief of staff to george osborne, so you know your way around a budget. and dr miatta fahnbulleh who's the chief exec of the new economics foundation. you advised three prime ministers on economics, didn't you? i did, i did. blimey. well, to both of you first of all, just most straightforwardly. what did you make of yesterday overall when you saw all the announcements? i think for me the word of the day was disappointing. i think when you're being told by the obr that we're seeing the biggest living standards squeeze since the 19505, when you know you've got a massive cost of living crisis, ijust didn't think he did enough, particularly, and this is the bit i'm hoping rupert can shed some

light, because i still don't get, particularly for the bottom households, people that we know are on the edge, people that we know are literally at the point that is catastrophic because they have cut everything they can cut, done everything they can do. there was nothing, literally nothing in the budget. in fact, what we had was an £11 billion real terms cut in social security, which seems absolutely extraordinary after that cut to the £20 uplift. so for me that was the thing, that i don't feel like that budget recognised the scale of the challenge out there, and what people are feeling and how painful it is, and therefore it felt really tone deaf. and the office for budget responsibility, the obr, is like the official number crunches who did give that warning that we're looking at the sharpest drop in living standards, basically, since records began, or modern records began. i mean, rupert, for you, can you see what he was trying to do? because a lot of people have had that reaction, including some conservatives and the conservative traditionally supporting newspapers. i think i can see - what he's trying to do. i think basically it's a sort

of wait and see strategy, | and in a way that makes sense, because unfortunately this - is going to get worse. we know it's going to get worse. we know that particularly household gas and energy prices _ are going to go up again, - and i'm pretty confident this is not the last word from rishi sunak on how he's going to deal- with the cost of living crisis. in fact, the prime minister's - already said today we will do more. so i think that rishi sunak's whole strategy was basically to kind - of live to fight another day. he needed to do one big thing, which will secure his _ national insurance rise, - and in a sense from a narrow treasury point of view, - that's quite an achievement, so he felt that was very - important in order to deliver sustainable public finances, pay for the extra money- for the nhs and social care, and a lot of people thoughti he was going to have to backtrackj on that in the face of this massive cost of living crisis. he's got that enormous tax rise through. - he's done enough, i think, - for the conservative party to say we're helping the bottom end of the income distribution. i tax, he has done that energy package a few weeks ago - for the first increase, _

and he's going to have to do more, i think he knows that, - but it was living to fight another day, i think. i'm glad you said he's going to have to do more, because i've already bet chris 50p that he will be back before that long with some more measures to help. but chris...? yes, miatta, i'm looking forward to that 50p if i win the bet. every yorkshireman will crave every 50p that he can get. miatta, i wonder, given your analysis and your sense that not enough was done, what one thing do you think he should or could have done that he didn't do? so the single thing i think he could have done and should have done was on universal credit. and for me, if he had for example put in £9 billion in order to uprate universal credit with inflation, that would have made a big difference. i would have liked him to do £15 billion, which essentially would have reversed the cuts that we've seen since 2010, and for a two—person household with two kids, that's about £4,000 in their pocket, which, for families that are literally on the brink at the moment, having to miss meals,

not feeding their kids because they can't survive any more, that would have been a huge lifeline. i don't know why he didn't do that. do you have sympathy, though, for rishi sunak in this situation? so the debt interest, £83 billion now, and for the government as well as for everybody, cash is going less far. i think we're overstating the debt interest. if you look at what the office for budget responsibility has said, it spikes this year, yes, it does, and it's a big number. but then if you look at it as a percentage of gdp, every single year of the parliament, it is below 2%, and if you compare that to the 30 year average, which is about 2.2%, we're actually at a relatively low place. so he has space. and if you look at what's happening to debt, it is decreasing at the fastest rate in the next five years than it has done for decades. so i don't buy this argument that he didn't have space and he doesn't have space. he does have space. not to even talk about the fact that the bank of england has bought up 40% of the debt.

so again it feels like a political construct, because he doesn't want to act, and that's the thing i don't understand against the biggest cost of living crisis we've seen in decades. we've got to remember the big picture is the government - is still borrowing many billions of pounds, and the public- finances are still reeling - from the impact of the pandemic, when the treasury, i think, - very quickly and very effectively stepped in with huge sums to support the economy with _ the furlough scheme. so it's clearly not the case that this treasury and thisj chancellor aren't willing to step in _ i think he is very conscious that he'sjust had the pandemic, - still borrowing a huge amount, and the national debt is a lot, i lot higher than it was, _ and he is a very focused on the fact that he needs to try - and get that under control. look, of course, i think we all wish there was more money available i to help with the cost of living. we know that particularly these energy prices and food price - increases are going to cause real

hardship, and sadly it's only- going to get worse over the course of the year. i but no government can totally insulate all of us from these . global energy prices. it's something that unfortunately is making all of us poorer. - they can do what they can, - but there isn't this sort of endless pot of money to say, _ ok, energy prices are going up, we are basically going to take j the entire hit to the taxpayer. no one's saying that, but i think the two things i would say is, you know, i don't think we're out of the crisis yet. i think the cost of living crisis is a fallout from the pandemic, so actually that crisis war mode that we were in in the pandemic i think is to continue, and that's what a lot of other european countries are doing. and we do have headspace. in the end, what's his fiscal space he has to play with, he still got room to manoeuvre because what matters is the cost of financing that debt, and that is when you compare it over the last 30 years, still at a sustainable, realistic number. the second thing is, why on earth is he not putting a windfall tax on energy producers and energy generators in order to ask them to take some of the hit so he can cushion price rises for consumers. that is a choice he's made, which makes absolutely

no sense when they're making supernormal profits. so forget about even out with debt, there is stuff that he could have done if he chose to do it. again, all these things are very difficult. - it's interesting the german. coalition government actually announced today a package of very similar size, so helping _ households with about 300 euros on energy bills. - they actually announced a very kind of eye—popping 30 cents _ on the euro cut in fuel duty, so it looks a lot bigger, - but it's only for three months. so when you add it all up, it is quite similar in size. i windfall taxes are again very - tempting, but the whole response to this energy crisis and ukraine is that we need energy security, so we're not buying oil and gas from russia. i we need more renewables investment. i if you slap a windfall tax just i at the moment when you're asking the corporate sector to step up with massive investment, - you're going to achieve exactly the reverse. i so none of these things - are costless options, sadly. just to sort of dispute that. so i absolutely agree with you that in the end, a windfall tax is a short—term measure, but it will cushion us

for two years, and by the way, whilst it's doing that, we should be investing in renewables. we should be doing insulation... the reason over the last ten years the uk had the biggest _ renewables roll—out, - the last 12 years, biggest i renewables roll—out of any developed l economy, and that was because we had a really certain framework. you could come in, l get your investment, you knew what the payback was going to be. _ if you start messing with that certainty, | you're not going to be able to repeat the trick. - but in a world where actually even the market will say the sort of profits that we're seeing in the energy market, for producers and generators, they're supernormal profits. they weren't banking on it. it wasn't in their investment pipeline, it wasn't in their programme for giving dividends. these are supernormal profits, which actually, when you look at the scale of it, a lot of people could justify why you would do that given the absolute pain that consumers are feeling. so i think you can still have that environment, and what actually matters is the signal is the government sends about long—term investment in renewables, we back this, the things that you do to give the market certainty, i think you can do that, and ask some of the generators to take some of the hit in order

to cushion consumers. rupert, we've had loads of newscasters getting in touch with us in all sorts of sectors, citizens�* advice, education, health, talking about their fears around how people are going to deal with the cost of living crisis as it is increasingly called. and ijust wonder if politics has maybe shifted as a result of the pandemic. maybe there is a great expectation out there, whatever the pressures on the spreadsheets of the treasury, that people have grown accustomed to bigger government now, and perhaps want more of it, and certainly looking at some of the front pages, some of the mutterings that laura and i have been having privately with various ministers, that fear that he hasn't grasped the scale of the challenge, rishi sunak. i think that's a really good point. i think people that saw the scale i of the intervention in the pandemic and expect something of similar. size, and may that helps to explain why the reaction today has been a little bit underwhelmed. - but do you think rishi sunak, who was a very polished politician, spends a lot of time and effort on his image, did he get the presentation of it wrong,

even if you think the policies are in the right place? it is always very difficult when you're chancellor. j you've got multiple audiences. you've got to get the benches behind you cheering on the day. _ you've got the newspapers the next morning, and of course, _ most importantly, you've got the voters in the real- impact on people. clearly it hasn't landed i as he would have wanted. i think normally honesty is the best policy and just say, look, _ this is a very difficult situation. i can't do everything. there will be more. and the thing about "there will be more" is i know- the treasury are always very, very nervous about raising. expectations, because you think, i you know, they put £10 on the table and number 10 will be there to take 20. - hang on a minute, he's promised to cut income tax in two years�* time. that's true. i think he also trying - to kind of put his marker down in a way to say, this is the election i campaign i want to be - fighting in two years' time, |and he is saying to borisjohnson| in a sense, any money that i have to spare is going on this, not on the next thing - you come to ask me for. that's interesting, so it's

a message to the next—door neighbour as much as anybody else. partly, yeah. miatta, what do you think listening to that? so i think you got this wrong, which is a bit odd, because he is very good on image, and i think he has up to now play the politics really well. i think he is a popular chancellor because he's read where the public is, and he's managed to kind of position himself. i thought the income tax in two years was bonkers, was bonkers because actually he doesn't know what position he's going to be in and the public finances... or if he'll be chancellor. exactly. he's a huge hostage to fortune, it means that if things go wrong, what are you going to do? u—turn before a general election? so i think that was odd, but more importantly, i think for a lot of people who are, like, why on earth are you talking about an income tax drop in two years' time when i've got a cost of living crisis now? so i don't think he got that right. and if he had said let's wait and see, i think there would have been some sympathy, but i think for a lot

of people, they were like, what are you waiting to see for? it is biting now, it is pinching now, and actually, don't be the chancellor that... my one criticism of him is that he is always looking back and reacting, and actually he could have been a bit proactive and said, i know this is coming. this is only going to go in one direction... but hang on. i know your economic views are in a certain place, perfectly legitimately, but there might be lots of people who think, actually, do you know what? i've been paying loads of tax, i'm quite happy about the idea of a tax cut. that does give me some hope that when times are tough, actually, i'm going to get a bit more of my money back. and he's taking some money off when i go to fill up at the pump. so, you know, that will be appealing to many people listening to it. i there is a bit of a contrast as well. between actually some of the polling evidence in the last 24 hours that people like the measures, - and these very bad front pages clearly that he got, _ and in a sense it's because he's- sort of in the westminster world not really pleasing anyone, - because he is having to put up taxes, so the right—wing papers don't like that, l and he's not really doing - what the left wing is wanted on benefits and helping -

with the cost of living, so he's kind of caught between the two. but actually, i agree that, - you know, people will say, well, at least he's cut fuel duty, i at least he's trying to cut tax. we know that those things will at least go down well. | and, you know, to be fair to him, the national insurance threshold, which i think was the biggest measure that actually bites, you know, for middle income households, that's like £400, so that is a genuine thing. i don't think anyone's taking that away from him. i think my issue with it is for a low income household that it's £60. for the richest 10%, it's £500. so if you're thinking about how you use your money, i think he could have used it in a better way in order to protect the people that are really hurting. and when you help 70% but the 30% you don't help aren't the richest, which is what you'd expect, but it's the 30% that are the poorest, that stinks for me. that stinks. ijust don't understand it. well, thank you both so much. we got through a big chat about the spring statement, which is not a budget, but like a budget,

with rupert harrison in the studio without even mentioning a sausage roll or a pasty! there we go, i had to do itjust at the end, i couldn't help myself. almost ten years to the day! is it really? we are all so old! oh, dear. miatta and rupert, thank you so much for coming in and joining us on newscast tonight, thank you. and thank you for watching and listening, and will be back soon. bye. hello there. the weather story this week has been dominated by spring sunshine and warmth, hasn't it? but the temperature trend, well, it's set to change. i've taken york as an example, but i could have shown almost anywhere. we're moving from the high teens down to single figures, so temperatures way above the average for the time of year will close out the month of march below average

for the time of year. so get out and enjoy saturday's sunshine if you can. there will be plenty of it, with the exception of the far north of scotland and the northern isles, but there will be lots of sunshine. a bit more of a breeze coming in off the north sea, so perhaps a little bit cooler on those exposed coasts. further inland will see the highest values through saturday afternoon, once again into the high teens. don't forget, as we move into the early hours of sunday morning, it's the start of british summertime. we put the clocks forward an hour. so, yes, we lose an hour's sleep, but we do gain more daylight hours from sunday onwards. high pressure stays with us, but we'll continue to see the cloud drifting in. a little bit more in the way of low cloud coming in off the north sea, so we will start the day perhaps out to the east not quite as cold but could be potentially quite grey. some of that cloud may welljust drift a little bit further inland as we go through the day, and if that happens, it could just suppress the temperatures a little across england and wales. the best of the sunshine,

potentially the best of the warmth, further north and west. let's move out of sunday into monday. we've still got the high pressure but it is starting to relinquish its grip a little, so, potentially, for the early half of monday morning we could have a little more in the way of stubborn mist and fog around, and the potential during monday for a few sharp showers across north wales and northern england. to the south, we keep some warmth, maybe highs of 16 degrees with some sunshine, but early indications of something a little bit colder starting to develop. now, the colder air will arrive as we move from tuesday onwards, so the wind direction swings round to a north—easterly, driving that cold air further south as we go through the next few days. so, again, the potential for a little more in the way of cloud coming in off the north sea, a few scattered showers around on tuesday as well, and we'll start to feel the difference. temperatures around 4 degrees in the northern isles, 8 degrees for aberdeenshire, perhaps highest values around cardiff of 16 celsius.

then as we move out of tuesday into wednesday, we've got this little weather front here and with that cold air really starting to dig in now, we could see some of those showers to higher ground turning a little more wintry in nature. they will drift their way steadily south. it will be rain at lower levels, obviously, but noticeably colder for all. we're looking at around 5 to 8 degrees, just scraping double digits perhaps south of that band of rain. and then the colder air pushes as far south as the london area as we head through the end of the working week. indications of something a little less cold as we start the following weekend. now, further ahead, there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks likely that the high pressure that has been so dominant of late will start to ease away and we'll see more of a return to a mobile westerly flow, which means that our weather will turn a little more unsettled. so, as we head towards the beginning of april, the weather story hasn't changed at the moment. unsettled, with showers or longer

spells of rain at times, but the temperatures will dip back up to about where they should be for the time of year. that's it. take care.

tonight at ten — russia signals a shift in its military strategy in the war here, narrowing its focus to the east of the country. it comes amid new evidence that ukrainian troops have pushed back russian forces from around the capital kyiv. we have a report from the front line. orla guerin: and ukrainian troops have been able to achieve this - against a much larger army, a more powerful army. in places now they're notjust resisting, they are mounting a counter—attack. but in the south of the country, there are fears of starvation in the besieged city of mariupol, as hundreds queue for food and water amid the devastation. and president biden visits poland to show support for ukraine's neighbour.

and the other main stories tonight...