this is bbc news, the headlines: the us government clarifies president biden�*s comments about vladimir putin remaining in power — saying it is not america's job to force him out. as the destruction of ukraine continues, president zelensky urges western countries to supply more planes, tanks, and missile defence systems. ukrainian military intelligence says moscow may be attempting to split the country into two parts. the uk government plans to take a 20% stake in a large—scale nuclear plant at sizewell in suffolk.

now on bbc news, talking business. hello, everybody, a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's take a look at what's on the show. does it feel like the cost of your food shop is on the rise? the war in ukraine means supplies have been cut from aa country known as europe's breadbasket. so, will the world still have enough crops to feed everyone? the prices of everything, from wheat to sunflower oil and corn is on the up and this expert will explain what impact that's having on our global economy. so, just how can europe make sure it can feed itself for years to come if ukraine and russia don't grow the crops we all want? this european farming leader will explain the challenges in making up the shortfall. also on the show, i'm in paris, where the world's energy ministers are meeting to discuss the oil and gas prices caused by the war in ukraine. i'm going to be speaking with the canadian minister to find

out if the world's fourth biggest oil producer can help solve our energy shortage. wherever in the world you arejoining me from, once again, big hello and welcome to the show. you know, the cost of food, it's rising and it's certainly been noticed in shopping baskets all around the world. prices were already heading upwards because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic but then came a war in ukraine. what happens inside that country's borders is also being felt outside of them. why? because it's a major exporter of crops such as corn, wheat and sunflower seed. so, just how bad is the situation?

well, the united nations�* food agency has an index which measures international prices for a range of raw ingredients, such as cereals, meat and oil. it hit a record high in february. in fact, the highest since records began 60 years ago. most of february's un food price numbers was put together before russia's invasion of ukraine. there are major concerns that prices will rise even more with their supplies cut off from the global markets. there are many reasons behind the increases. one big one is the soaring cost of fertiliser. natural gas is a key ingredient for making fertiliser. but europe is looking to end its reliance on russian gas. a change that is increasingly problematic for farmers. take a listen to the boss of the world's biggest fertiliser company. half of the world's population gets food as a result of fertiliser because plants, just like us humans, they need nutrition in order to grow and fertiliser gives nutrients out in the field for the farmer.

in the field of the farmer. if that is removed from the field, for some crops, they will drop by 50% in the first season. it is a vital part of the food security for the whole world. russia and ukraine are both major players in global food supplies. they are the world's two biggest sunflower oil producers and combined account for more than three quarters of what other countries buy in. when it comes to wheat, nearly 30% of what other countries import come from russia and ukraine. and on top of that, ukraine is also a significant corn grower, accounting for 16% of global exports. and it's really hard to get those grains out of ukraine at the moment because port cities like mariupol have been under constant attack from russian forces, meaning the ports are all but closed. and it's bad timing for another reason. oleg ustenko, an economic adviser to ukraine's presidents zelensky wrote in the financial times recently the regular window. wrote in the financial times recently, "the regular window

for starting field work is the first ten days of march. and planting needs to be fully completed in the last week of april. he added some of these fields are likely to be mined or contained unexploded ordinance," which he says will need to be removed before crops are grown. that would make coping without the food grown in ukraine's fields just one more long—term problem when it comes to the world's food supplies. in the case of food prices, in some parts of the world, especially, for instance, in africa, you see high pass through, but a lot more effect will probably show up in 2023 because there tends to be a lag. that could lead to social unrest in different parts of the world. we are in a period where we have big inflation. what does the future hold for food prices? kona lasker haque is the head of research at ed&f man, a london based agricultural commodities merchant, commodities merchant, which trades globally in things like sugar, coffee, molasses, and animalfeed.

kona, always a pleasure to have you, thanks for your time. can we start with an explanation to our friends around the world, why are russia and ukraine so pivotal in the global food system? yes, we cannot overestimate just how much the production of grains, oil, seeds, edible oils, you name it, they are the breadbasket of the world. russia and ukraine together is really, a really huge dominant force in terms of food production. and with ports being closed, fields being bombed and in russia's case, sanctions in place, are we looking at having to cope without their supplies for the long term? a lot depends on how long the war lasts. right now, we are faced with a situation where a lot of the traders are too worried to go and actually get vessels into the region to load it with the necessary grains. partly because there is concerns over payment and insurance and sanctions. but there's also the security risks. i know that some vessels

have actually directly been hit by missiles. there's all of that side of things. secondly, as you said, the sanctions, will they even be lifted after the war is over? if it is, if it is the case, then maybe russia can continue to export. but on the other hand there is going to be a lot of problems because it's unlikely that things are going to remain smooth sailing. and i think you will see a situation where a lot of the world are going to try to look to divert their imports away from that region, because right now it's just a little bit too much of a risky region. indeed. we know that food prices were already at a ten year high before this war. just take us back, what was driving those increases? what we've been seeing for at least the last six months was a series of events globally amongst the major

food producers around the world. we just seem to be suffering all kinds of various supply setbacks. whether it was argentina with its drought or very dry weather in the us and canadian wheat growing areas, brazilian trouts, all the big grain producing countries, for some reason or other ended up with below average crops —— brazilian trouts. the supply side is already very tight. on top of that, we had very strong rising energy prices and crude oil prices, which meant the cost of shipping all that stuff was becoming very expensive. finally, we saw a situation where post—covid mac, demand for all the foodstuffs became... started to recover very sharply and this mismatch between rising demand and slow supply or drought hit yields across production in the major producing regions meant there wasjust not in the major producing regions meant there was just not enough supply to go around. and it ended up with

prices rising pretty strong, just to compensate from the fact that markets were already very tight. there really wasn't enough room for error and unfortunately that is exactly what we've got with this war. �* ., . ., , exactly what we've got with this war. �* ., _, , ., ., war. and, of course, now we add the water to that — war. and, of course, now we add the water to that picture. _ war. and, of course, now we add the water to that picture. what _ war. and, of course, now we add the water to that picture. what does - war. and, of course, now we add the water to that picture. what does it i water to that picture. what does it mean for people around the world doing their supermarket shop? what doing their supermarket shop? what we are facing — doing their supermarket shop? what we are facing is food _ doing their supermarket shop? tariat we are facing is food inflation. doing their supermarket shop? “gm"iat we are facing is food inflation. if it was just one region where food prices were rising, we would think be that something which may be we can cope with. but this is the global globally traded commodities, the middle east and north africa, for example, they rely directly on russia and ukraine for most of their wheat and grains. asia is a net food importing country again, whether it's palm oil or sunflower seed oil or soybean oil, they are heavy importers. asia imports their wheat

from this region as well. so they're all directly impacted. what's going to happen is that food producers are going to have to then pass that on to the food manufacturers, food manufacturers and pass that on to the retailers. the retailers will then pass it on to the consumers. so at the supermarkets, unfortunately, or in the markets generally, we will be seeing rising food inflation. and can we put a number on a rough estimate on these increases for the consumer? i would say a 20% increase year on year is something we've already been seeing. and obviously, that will depend on where you are because some countries will look to subsidise their consumers and protect them from the rising raw material costs. others will pass that on, so they may even see higher than 20% in price increases when the cost of food is rising in these unprecedented ways. when the cost of food is rising

in these unprecedented ways... i mean, just explain to us what is the impact on our global economy our economy, which is still being just struggling to recover from the pandemic? yeah, we were looking at 5% growth globally in terms of the world economic output this year. there was such a strong recovery post—covid. and now that growth is going to be seriously impacted by the inflationary pressures we're seeing everywhere. food inflation, in particular, will hit developing countries the most purely because much more of their incomes are spent on food products compared to the western world. the war has meant that 5% growth is now seen more at the 3% level, but i think developing countries might suffer more depending on how import dependent they are. well, on that note, kona, always a pleasure. thanks for your time, and i'll speak to you soon. thank you so much. thank you.

well, all of that food we depend on comes from just one place farms. so i've been speaking to tim cullinan, who“s president of the irish farmers association, as well as vice president of the committee of professional agricultural organisations, which represents over 22 million european farmers. tim, thank you very much forjoining me on my show. i want to start with this and the size of ukraine because the world bank numbers show that ukraine has $33 million hectares of crop growing farmland, more than anywhere else in europe, infact, nearly twice as much as france. so i guess the question isjust how important is that to feeding the continent? it's absolutely, very, very important. and you're right, not alone the size of the country, but the fertility of the land there is excellent. and you know, we often call it the breadbasket of europe. and if we look at it, 30% of the corn that is used for animal feed in europe comes from the ukraine. so obviously this is a massive concern now for us. well, actually, i wanted to touch

on that because again, correct me if i'm wrong, but right now is supposed to be the time for ukrainian farmers to plant their crops, whether it be wheat or sunflowers, barley, etc. if they can't, can european farmers make up the shortfall? yeah. well, look, and obviously our sympathies are and solidarity is with ukrainian farmers at the moment. with the conditions there, it's unlikely even the availability of diesel is a major problem there because any fuel that is available is being used to fight the war. look at what is happening here in the eu commission. there is a proposal that was agreed by the council of ministers, where the fallow or greening lands across europe, which is approximately 5.5 million hectares, is going to be allowed to grow a crop for this coming year. if this land comes online, can this land replace the same crops that we'd be missing from ukraine?

well, it may not grow the corn that was coming from ukraine, but obviously you could plant wheat or in particular, barley now for the spring. it would be replacing animalfeed. so that i think that is very important because, you know, we need we need a boost in the stocks, obviously now of the animal feed right across europe in the round, like, we need approximately 66 million tonnes of animal feed per year within europe. and, you know, if you take... the volume of in the region of ii to 15 million tonnes that had been coming from the ukraine, well, obviously there“s a deficit, so i believe the lands coming in will definitely help to make up the deficit. obviously, it won't relieve it all. but there is another initiative being looked at as well. we may have to import more feed from north to south america in the coming year as well to make up the balance and importing more grains. and importing more grains...

more feed importing it means higher prices, surely. yeah. the other thing we have been contending with right across the european union is the price of feed and fertiliser and fuel, obviously, hence is going to lead... going to lead to food prices, to the consumer are going to have to increase to be able to compensate farmers for the massive costs that they're incurring at the moment. and tim, i'm not to press you on this matter, but could you give me an idea of how much we're talking about? i mean, could you know, could we see food increasing by io%, 20%? yeah. well, i suppose if we look at it in the products that we are buying, let it be fertiliser feed, fuel like we're dealing with inflation of well in excess of 100% across the line. it will equate back to you may see the price of food and, you know, on retailer shelves needs to go up somewhere in the region of five to io%. and again, what's very important here is we have equality in the food

supply chain so that the margins that nobody is profiteering on the back of one other actor in the chain here, in particular during again this time of crisis. tim cullinan, i appreciate your time. thank you forjoining me. good luck with everything, and i'll check in with you soon. thanks, aaron, and a pleasure talking to your staff as well. to yourself as well. we all know the prices of oil and gas have been surging because of the war in ukraine, and that's been a top priority for the world's energy ministers who have been meeting here in paris. the big problem — those all important russian supplies are being squeezed out of the market and that's having a huge impact on our global economy, pushing up the prices for everything from transport to electricity. so can the world's fourth biggest oil producer, canada, help to fill the gap? well, i've been speaking with their natural resources minister jonathan wilkinson. minister wilkinson, welcome to my show. thanks for your time. you've been meeting with your fellow energy ministers here at the summit in paris. and i'm wondering, minister, is there a consensus that the world needs to cope without russian oil and gas?

i think there is a consensus. i think the only differences are around how fast can you actually get away from it? i think everybody is committed to doing that, and many of us are committing to trying to try to help as much as we can in terms of displacing russian oil and gas. but i think there was also a consensus about the need to advance the energy transition. minister, there are reports that the likes of india is considering buying russian oil heavily discounted because russia needs to sell it. so i'm just wondering on that point, isn't it near impossible to impose meaningful sanctions on russia when you'll always quite possibly have countries prepared to buy the oil regardless of sanctions or embargoes? well, i think the sanctions are still effective and it's not just sanctions on oil and gas, but even in the context of oil and gas, there may be some countries that that would choose to purchase russian oil and gas, although i think there

will be some moral suasion that will go into conversations with india, if that's the case and with others. but you just said at heavily discounted prices, that's painful for russia in the context of what they extract for value. and so, you know, i think we're seeing already the russian economy is in very serious trouble. it is, i think, one of the lasting and very unfortunate legacies of all of this is notjust that the ukrainian economy will be devastated and will require significant rebuilding in the aftermath of this terrible series of events, but that the russian people are going to pay an enormous economic price and it will not be a short term price. let's talk about your country, canada, fourth biggest oil producer on the planet. so, minister, can you and are you going to, well, help the world be less dependent on russian energy? we are, and we're going to do

that in the short term, and we're also going to try to do that in the long term. we'll be increasing our production and flow through the pipelines of oil of about 300,000 barrels a day by the end of the year. extra extra in line with work, the americans are also doing extra in line with work, the americans are also doing and the brazilians have also announced. we're also looking at at the potential for a couple of smaller lng facilities on the east coast that might be able to supply some. natural gas, but it will be in the context of how do you transition to something more sustainable over time? so any lng facility we would build in canada would need to be capable of converting to hydrogen. it would need to use electric drive technology so you're not creating domestic emissions that are going to be difficult to reconcile with your climate agenda. how do you pump out an extra 300,000 barrels when your pipes the full nearly? they're not. they're not quite full. and that's the exercise we've gone through with the producers, the pipeline companies and the provinces. we are a federation in canada.

to try to identify how much capacity was there and there's about 300,000 barrels per day or oil equivalent, 200,000 barrels of oil and 100,000 barrels of natural gas that we believe we can actually flow down to the united states. the united states has the take away capacity to be able to take that down to the gulf coast and either exported as crude and either export it as crude or refined it and export it as finished products. but let me say that, you know, the long term answer is not significant increases in oil production. we all know that oil has to go down, consumption has to go down if we're going to meet our climate goals. how quickly can you get this oil out? well, we will be ramping up over the course of the next few months. we expect that by the end of the year, we will be fully up to the 300,000 barrels. but isn't that only possible to let's say you ship this oil and these products to europe. when oil is at this price, it's not viable, right? surely, if it's back down to so—called normal levels? oh, i think it is. i mean, a lot of this is pulling

forward production levels that producers had intended to move towards over the coming couple of years. and the prices right now are such that oil companies around the world are actually making pretty, pretty healthy profits. the actual operating costs of the facilities that are in canada are actually relatively low. and so even if you went back to normal levels, that wouldn't be a problem. but we all know that demand for oil has to go down. so canada pumping out an extra 300,000 barrels to try and help alleviate the shortages, to do that, minister, do you have to throw out the climate rule book for now, at least to do that? no, no. and i think that's a really good question because i think a lot of people are asking that question. i think that energy security and climate change and fighting climate change are intimately linked. we actually need to move forward. and i will tell you around the iea table of ministers, there wasn't one country that didn't say we need to accelerate the rate of deployment of renewables.

we need to accelerate the energy transition to ensure that there is greater energy security in the world. and we are not in a situation like we are or many european countries are right now vis a vis russia. so we have to actually act to ensure that people that countries in europe have the ability to have mobility, that they have trucks that are going to carry goods that are going to distribute groceries and everything else, that people are able to heat their homes and that industries are able to produce the goods that we all need. so we have to act to do that. and, minister, when you speak to your colleagues in the g7 group of leading economies, how worried are they that these soaring energy prices means that inflation? prices means that inflation... could possibly be a long term problem for all of us? prices, in part because of the potential impacts on inflation, in part because of the impacts on affordability for people, particularly for people

who are, you know, not of high income within our respective economies. and so i think we're all thinking about how we can address that. but certainly, we all have an interest in bringing those prices down. we certainly don't want to see inflation become a chronic problem going forward, and i don't think we're there yet. i mean, some may look at this and think that this global energy crisis is just highlighting the need, and you've touched on it, but highlighting the need to accelerate our transition into greener energy, wind or solar. but that would take... that's going to take... to accelerate it, it's going to take more investment, isn't it? it's certainly the case that many countries around the world have made commitments that will require more investment. i mean, if you look at the commitments that were made in the run up to and at cop, we all made commitments to enhance our level of ambition. you don't make progress on enhancing your level of ambition without using all of the tools in the tool box that includes investments. it also includes regulatory mechanisms. it includes putting a price on carbon pollution,

which we in canada have done. minister, apart from oil and gas hydrocarbons, what other energy are you looking at to... and the energy ministers around the world, to provide this energy security we so desperately need? well, i think we're looking at all non—emitting sources of energy, some of which are obvious, like wind and solar, which europe has deployed in significant measure already but needs to do more. but nuclear in many jurisdictions you“ve... i'm sure you've heard belgium is going to continue with its nuclear programme. we do believe that there is a role for nuclear in manyjurisdictions in terms of providing baseload rather than intermittent power. on the point of of nuclear power, you're a big provider of uranium. are you prepared to export more uranium? we absolutely are. i mean, canada is blessed with an abundance of resources. uranium is certainly one of them, at this point in time. our uranium producers actually do have excess capacity and certainly could ramp up to help to fill the gap that russian supplies

will provide in this context. part of my show this week is talking about the soaring cost of food impacting everybody around the world everybody around the world. concerning politicians. indeed, the imf, the international monetary fund has warned that it could cause civil unrest. part of the reason for the soaring cost of food is the soaring cost of fertiliser. i mean, i believe, you know, it has gone up 100 to i30%. you supply, canada, huge in fertiliser, supply about a third of the world's production and given russia is number two, can you do more? can canada do more on the fertiliserfront? yes, we can. i mean, as you know, the food issue is a complicated one. there“s supply chain issues, there“s fertiliser issues, there“s energy cost issues and there's what's happening in ukraine. well. sorry to interrupt fertilisers and i've learned this myself, but fertiliser users needs

natural gas to produce it. the natural gas prices as increased the fertiliser, right? but to the point of can canada help with that? the answer is yes, we are. we are, as you say, one of the very largest potash producers in the world. we are one of the companies in canada that's located in central canada, just announced they are going to be expanding production to try to address some of the concerns that exist. it's not just russia. russia actually supports supply potash as well. and so we are looking at how canada can can usefully step in to help countries in europe and around the world with that issue. well, on that note, ministerwilkinson, much appreciate your time. thanks forjoining me. thank you. well, that's all for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. this week's show. don't forget you can keep up to date with the latest on the war in ukraine and the impact it“s having on our global economy on the bbc news website or the smartphone app. you can also follow me on twitter. tweet me, i'll tweet you back. you can get me @bbcaaron.

i'll see you soon and bye bye from paris. good afternoon. after the warm, sunny days we've had lately, i think the weather this week will come as something as a shock to the system because it's going to turn much colder and with that, for some of us, there will be some snow. the nights turning increasingly cold and frosty as well. where we have had low cloud, mist and fog today, it's been feeling quite chilly. that was the scene from a weather watcher in essex earlier on. some of these eastern areas will stay grey and murky through the day. out west, more sunshine, lifting temperatures to around 17. this evening and tonight the area of low cloud,

mist, and fog tends to expand and we see some showers breaking out across northern england and north wales, later tonight as well. where we do keep clear skies overnight it will be relatively chilly with temperatures getting down to around freezing. milder where we have more cloud. tomorrow, the area of high pressure that's been with us for so long shows signs of loosening its grip and that will allow things to slowly turn a bit more unsettled. so we'll have these showers across parts of northern england, the isle of man, potentially into south—eastern parts of northern ireland. cloud pushing up from the south bringing rain for the channel islands, the odd shower for the south—west of england and wales. some spells of sunshine elsewhere. temperatures up to 16 or 17 although quite chilly for the eastern coast. tuesday, a lot of cloud at this stage. the chance of showers to the south, some of them heavy. some showers breaking out further north as well and signs of those beginning to turn wintry across scotland as some colder air starts to tuck in. that's a sign of things to come. as we move into wednesday, this weather front is going to push

furthersouth, bringing rain, yes, but also potentially some snow. this much colder air pushing its way southwards. a band of rain, sleet and snow. i think the snow mostly over the hills but some could come down to the lower levels. lots of wintry showers packing into scotland through the day. they will certainly bring snow to some quite low levels. temperatures just 4, 5 degrees across northern areas. ii or 12 further south and it's going to be a pretty chilly end to the week with some rain, sleet or snow showers in places. some chilly days and cold, frosty nights. a big change on the way through the coming week after the warm

this is bbc news. welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. our top stories: clarification and warnings against escalation afterjoe biden described vladimir putin as a butcher and said he shouldn't be allowed to remain in power. as you know, and as you've heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in russia, or anywhere else for that matter. ukraine's military intelligence chief says moscow may be attempting to split the country into two parts in what he called a "korean scenario". as the destruction of ukraine continues, president zelensky urges western countries to supply more planes, tanks, and missile defence systems. officials in colombia say taylor hawkins,