hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching context on bbc news. the mayor of mariupol says 5000 people have died in his city and thousands are still trapped. can the talks which begin again in istanbul tomorrow, offer any hope to those suffering under russian bombardment? president zelensky says he is ready to accept putin's terms on ukraine's future neutrality. but who would give the ukrainians the security they seek. roman abramovich was treated for a suspected poisoning, along with three ukrainian diplomats, after attending talks in kyiv earlier this month. ajudge in the united states says it is more likely than not preisdent trump committed a federal crime in his various attempts to disrupt the certifying of the 2020 election. tonight with the context, the ukrainan mp lesia

vasylenko, co—chair of the european council on foreign relations, carl bildt and former director for european affairs on the us national security council, retired lieutenta nt colonel alexander vindman. hello, welcome to the programme. ukraine's army is putting up a heroic fight. today, according to the mayor of irpin, 12 miles to the north of the capital, the city has been retaken. at every axis of this battle the russians are facing stiff resitance and are paying a severe price. but they are not ready to quit. each side thinks it still has a chance to outlast the other. and that, say the diplomats, is why the chances for a cease—fire look so dim. even though, when the two sides sit down again tomorrow, in istanbul, there are russian demands, relating to ukraine's future neutrality, which president zelensky

is prepared to accept. translation: security i guarantees and neutrality. non—nuclear status of our state. we are ready to go for it. this is the most important point. it was the main point for russia, as far as i can remember. and if i remember correctly, this is why they started the war. the truth is no—one knows what vladimir putin is really thinking. 0r indeed whether he even wants a solution. translation: the crisis in ukraine, the conflict inside ukraine, - has been brewing so long. all these years, that a huge number of problems have built up. therefore just meeting and exchanging views on what you thing and i think, that would just be counter—productive now. ukraine, thinks the kremlin�*s new objective is to split the country like the korean peninsular. some say, in the end zelensky may have to concede on the future status of the donbass, in yellow. maybe he has intimated as much. but could he ever contemplate a dividing line that traces

the dnipro riverfrom north to south — marked in blue — carving his country into two seperate parts. tonight we will talk about the state of the war, we are going to look ahead to the talks in istanbul tomorrow. and what might be on the table, and what security guarantees, the west might be able offer to ukraine, if it cedes to russians demands for neutrality. lets start in kyiv with ukrainian mp lesia vasylenko. wa nt to want to come to the statement we have had from the mayor of irpin. you are our eyes and ears on the ground, what can you tell us about the state of the battle there? it was with great joy that we heard was with greatjoy that we heard today the statement from the mayor of irpin who declared that we had finally regained full control of irpin, meaning that no russian forces remain in the city. there are still clean up operations going on as we speak but around irpin, in the

small villages and in residential areas which have spread from irpin to kyiv, there are still battles going on, there is still heavy fighting. i have colleagues who have been reporting that it is not quiet, it is not quiet at all, and we still must be very vigilant, our army is still very much tense in and around irpin, because we understand that at any moment, the russians can regroup and try to take the city again. i mean, the intensity of the fighting has not gone down that much and the russian artillery is still working everything that they have. it is as if the russian soldiers have some kind of, you know, targets of the number of artillery that they have to shoot to the ukrainian side and on ukrainian villages and on ukrainian citizens, and it is as if they are working this norm to get

high scores on their military bulletins. so, it still remains to be seen for how long we will be able to hold irpin and mainly how quickly we can clean out all the villages and the other residential areas around irpin.— and the other residential areas around irpin. carl bildt, kept do ou think around irpin. carl bildt, kept do you think the — around irpin. carl bildt, kept do you think the state _ around irpin. carl bildt, kept do you think the state of _ around irpin. carl bildt, kept do you think the state of the - around irpin. carl bildt, kept do i you think the state of the fighting and the bravery that the ukrainian army are showing, do you think that is focusing minds in istanbul and is that the context in which we should see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know — see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know in _ see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know. in the _ see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know. in the talks _ see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know. in the talks so - see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know. in the talks so far, - see the talks tomorrow? we simply don't know. in the talks so far, the | don't know. in the talks so far, the russians_ don't know. in the talks so far, the russians have evidently presented a number_ russians have evidently presented a number of— russians have evidently presented a number of demands which has indicated _ number of demands which has indicated they are not ready for the serious _ indicated they are not ready for the serious negotiations and compromise and withdrawal that will have to be the basis _ and withdrawal that will have to be the basis for any agreement. whether that changes in istanbul tomorrow remains _ that changes in istanbul tomorrow remains to— that changes in istanbul tomorrow remains to be seen. i remain somewhat— remains to be seen. i remain somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman, i — somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman. i am _ somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman, i am going _ somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman, i am going to _ somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman, i am going to put - somewhat sceptical so far. colonel vindman, i am going to put that i somewhat sceptical so far. colonel. vindman, i am going to put that map up vindman, i am going to put that map up again, isuppose

vindman, i am going to put that map up again, i suppose when it comes to the negotiations, a lot of it will depend on what the status is on the ground. if the russian troops are hemmed in to the donbas and parts around mariupol, that is one thing, but clearly if they were able to form a line through the middle of the country that would frame the negotiations on a complete different way, wouldn't it? it negotiations on a complete different way. wouldn't it?— way, wouldn't it? it would but that is also unrealistic. _ way, wouldn't it? it would but that is also unrealistic. they _ way, wouldn't it? it would but that is also unrealistic. they are - way, wouldn't it? it would but that is also unrealistic. they are still. is also unrealistic. they are still operating — is also unrealistic. they are still operating on three... can is also unrealistic. they are still operating on three. . ._ is also unrealistic. they are still operating on three... can you hear me? yes, — operating on three... can you hear me? yes. we _ operating on three... can you hear me? yes, we can, _ operating on three... can you hear me? yes, we can, go _ operating on three... can you hear me? yes, we can, go ahead. - operating on three... can you hear me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, l operating on three... can you hear i me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, that would... me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, that would- -- that — me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, that would... that is _ me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, that would... that is unrealistic, - me? yes, we can, go ahead. so, that would... that is unrealistic, given - would... that is unrealistic, given the fact— would... that is unrealistic, given the fact that — would... that is unrealistic, given the fact that that they are operating on three different axes to the north, _ operating on three different axes to the north, to the east, and the south — the north, to the east, and the south. they need to consolidate their— south. they need to consolidate their force — south. they need to consolidate their force structure around the main _ their force structure around the main access of attack, probably to the east. — main access of attack, probably to the east. if— main access of attack, probably to the east, if they want to achieve this objective. they have not done that, _ this objective. they have not done that, they— this objective. they have not done that, they are still operating on all those —

that, they are still operating on all those lines. they are still significant population sectors that they need to secure. dnipro would be criticat— they need to secure. dnipro would be critical to— they need to secure. dnipro would be critical to this particular objective if they want to go all the way out _ objective if they want to go all the way out to— objective if they want to go all the way out to the river. it is right now _ way out to the river. it is right now unclear, the rhetoric is around this idea _ now unclear, the rhetoric is around this idea of— now unclear, the rhetoric is around this idea of establishing the donbas boundaries that these two regions that the _ boundaries that these two regions that the russians have had partial controt— that the russians have had partial control of— that the russians have had partial control of since 2014, extending them _ control of since 2014, extending them out — control of since 2014, extending them out to the full boundaries of those _ them out to the full boundaries of those territories, provinces. that is not _ those territories, provinces. that is notjogging those territories, provinces. that is not jogging with those territories, provinces. that is notjogging with a those territories, provinces. that is not jogging with a fax those territories, provinces. that is notjogging with a fax on those territories, provinces. that is not jogging with a fax on the ground, — is not jogging with a fax on the ground, based on the way that russians— ground, based on the way that russians have arrayed their forces. it is russians have arrayed their forces. it is likely— russians have arrayed their forces. it is likely that over the course of the coming — it is likely that over the course of the coming weeks, as we get into the winter. _ the coming weeks, as we get into the winter. the _ the coming weeks, as we get into the winter, the russians are going to take a _ winter, the russians are going to take a pause, potentially prepare for summer operations, then we can see some _ for summer operations, then we can see some forces shifting around, but for the _ see some forces shifting around, but for the time — see some forces shifting around, but for the time being, see some forces shifting around, but forthe time being, it see some forces shifting around, but for the time being, it looks like they— for the time being, it looks like they are — for the time being, it looks like they are still operating on all these — they are still operating on all these axes, three distinct prongs of attack— these axes, three distinct prongs of attack with— these axes, three distinct prongs of attack with three distinct leaderships, all filtering up to moscow— leaderships, all filtering up to moscow for control. |

leaderships, all filtering up to moscow for control.— leaderships, all filtering up to moscow for control. i am really in the front page — moscow for control. i am really in the front page of _ moscow for control. i am really in the front page of the _ moscow for control. i am really in the front page of the financial - the front page of the financial times tonight and they are saying that the russians have now given up on this plane that they want to denazify the country, and it seems they are happy for ukraine to be part of the european union, which, when you go back to 2014 and the revolution and where we were eight years ago, that is quite extraordinary. and that seems to me to be quite a concession that has come from a result of the fighting on the ground. i come from a result of the fighting on the ground-— on the ground. i don't see it as a concession- _ on the ground. i don't see it as a concession. ukraine _ on the ground. i don't see it as a concession. ukraine is _ on the ground. i don't see it as a concession. ukraine is a - on the ground. i don't see it as a concession. ukraine is a free - concession. ukraine is a free country, an independent country, and if we are still speaking about the very concept of sovereign states, then there should be no issue with russia having any say in what ukraine does in its international point. i ukraine does in its international oint. . ~ ukraine does in its international oint. , , point. i take your point, but it is a movement— point. i take your point, but it is a movement in _ point. i take your point, but it is a movement in the _ point. i take your point, but it is a movement in the russian - point. i take your point, but it is - a movement in the russian position, isn't it? it is a movement in what russia says it is prepared to accept. russia says it is prepared to

acce t. ., ., ,, ., accept. the movement of russian osition is accept. the movement of russian position is what _ accept. the movement of russian position is what we _ accept. the movement of russian position is what we see _ accept. the movement of russian position is what we see here - accept. the movement of russian position is what we see here on i accept. the movement of russian | position is what we see here on the ground with air forces, and what we see here on the ground is that the minute putin declares that he is willing to concentrate phase two of his operation in the east of ukraine, the minute he declares that, we have russian fighterjets covering the whole of ukraine, and we have explosions in dnipro, in other western parts of ukraine, which is very, very far from the area of the donetsk and hanks regions, which is the east of ukraine, literally thousand calamitous away, so this is the russian position, as we see it. —— it is literally a thousand kilometre away. we have learned here not to trust any word of what putin says. he has a reputation of being the biggest lie in the world. usually, when putin says one thing, he does the opposite. whether it is a shift or not, time will also show and it

will also show how much he is prepared to accept ukrainian serenity. irate prepared to accept ukrainian sereni . ~ ., �* prepared to accept ukrainian sereni .~ ., , prepared to accept ukrainian sereni . ~ ., �* ., , ,, ., ., serenity. we don't really know what vladimir putin — serenity. we don't really know what vladimir putin de _ serenity. we don't really know what vladimir putin de is _ serenity. we don't really know what vladimir putin de is prepared - serenity. we don't really know what vladimir putin de is prepared to - vladimir putin de is prepared to accept or how serious he is about negotiations but let's presume for a second that this talk about ukraine for future neutrality is serious. ukraine says it wants some guarantees for its own security, clearly that would have to go further than the budapest memorandum in 1994 which wasn't worth the paper it was written on. which country would be able to give ukraine the security that it seeks? what would be able to give ukraine the security that it seeks? what would be ossible security that it seeks? what would be possible would _ security that it seeks? what would be possible would be _ security that it seeks? what would be possible would be the - security that it seeks? what would be possible would be the us - security that it seeks? what would be possible would be the us and l security that it seeks? what would . be possible would be the us and nato because _ be possible would be the us and nato because that is a substantial one, but that— because that is a substantial one, but that is— because that is a substantial one, but that is obviously on the table and the — but that is obviously on the table and the nato issue was off the table seven years ago. to be realistic, the only— seven years ago. to be realistic, the only security guarantee that i can see _ the only security guarantee that i can see for— the only security guarantee that i can see for the future of ukraine is

the strength of the armed forces of ukraine _ the strength of the armed forces of ukraine itself. because the russians can sign— ukraine itself. because the russians can sign any sort of paper, they have _ can sign any sort of paper, they have signed papers giving the territorial integrity of ukraine and they were — territorial integrity of ukraine and they were worth nothing when russia saw the _ they were worth nothing when russia saw the pensive 80 of moving. —— the possibly— saw the pensive 80 of moving. —— the possibly of— saw the pensive 80 of moving. —— the possibly of moving. in the preliminary talks, the ones we have seen so _ preliminary talks, the ones we have seen so far. — preliminary talks, the ones we have seen so far, there is a radical reduction _ seen so far, there is a radical reduction in the military strength of ukraine. i have heard they have asked _ of ukraine. i have heard they have asked in_ of ukraine. i have heard they have asked in the — of ukraine. i have heard they have asked in the initial talks, they talked — asked in the initial talks, they talked about a 90% reduction in the ukraine _ talked about a 90% reduction in the ukraine armed forces and of course that can _ ukraine armed forces and of course that can he — ukraine armed forces and of course that can be seen as fair wanting to have _ that can be seen as fair wanting to have de _ that can be seen as fair wanting to have de facto military control over the region— have de facto military control over the region and no one being able to contest _ the region and no one being able to contest it~ — the region and no one being able to contest it. so, security guarantees on paper, — contest it. so, security guarantees on paper, fine, sign whatever, but at the _ on paper, fine, sign whatever, but at the end — on paper, fine, sign whatever, but at the end of the day, it is going to he _ at the end of the day, it is going to he the — at the end of the day, it is going to be the armed forces of ukraine that secured the sticky —— secure

the future — that secured the sticky —— secure the future of the country. that secured the sticky -- secure the future of the country.- that secured the sticky -- secure the future of the country. does that underline why _ the future of the country. does that underline why there _ the future of the country. does that underline why there is _ the future of the country. does that underline why there is so _ the future of the country. does that underline why there is so much - underline why there is so much pessimism about the talks tomorrow? in the first five minutes of our programme, we have laid bare the problems. lessee had doesn't trust the russians, colonel vindman says and negotiation isn't facilitated because the russians have met their objectives and the ukrainian still think they can push them back, and there really is no outside actor who can provide assurances ukraine once. we know very little about the state of this _ we know very little about the state of this particular port —— talks. the _ of this particular port —— talks. the aim — of this particular port —— talks. the aim to _ of this particular port —— talks. the aim to launch this particular aggression was far—reaching. there was defector control, the elimination of ukraine as the sovereign nation, and then they change — sovereign nation, and then they change it— sovereign nation, and then they change it to demilitarisation, which is essentially the same thing. they have to _ is essentially the same thing. they have to he — is essentially the same thing. they

have to be major concessions to be withdrawat— have to be major concessions to be withdrawal of all the russian forces and for— withdrawal of all the russian forces and for the ukraine to continue to exist. _ and for the ukraine to continue to exist. which— and for the ukraine to continue to exist, which is the basic requirement of the outside world. that remains to be seen. i don't think— that remains to be seen. i don't think we — that remains to be seen. i don't think we are there yet. we know very little about _ think we are there yet. we know very little about what russia is ready to do. ., ., ., ., ., ., ,, do. colonelvindman, i want to talk about how the _ do. colonelvindman, i want to talk about how the west _ do. colonelvindman, i want to talk about how the west should - do. colonel vindman, i want to talk. about how the west should approach the peace negotiations because of course president biden's comments in poland have been well discussed over the last 24 hours. i think that position is still evolving. this is what he had to sayjust a few minute ago that the comments he made with regards to removing vladimir putin. i was expressing my outrage. he shouldn't remain in power. just like, you know, bad people shouldn't continue to do bad things. but it doesn't mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take putin down any way.

the issue is, there might be a piece where ukraine signed a peace agreement under duress that is not acceptable to president biden. maybe he is laying out here a future where europe, nato, can't accept a piece in which vladimir putin is still around. . �* , in which vladimir putin is still around. . �*, ., ._ around. that's not the way i interpret — around. that's not the way i interpret it. _ around. that's not the way i interpret it. i— around. that's not the way i interpret it. i think - around. that's not the way i interpret it. i think the - around. that's not the way i interpret it. i think the us i around. that's not the way i j interpret it. i think the us is around. that's not the way i i interpret it. i think the us is on the point — interpret it. i think the us is on the point of correction in the leadership of ukraine on this issue. this will— leadership of ukraine on this issue. this will be... this is going to be an issue — this will be... this is going to be an issue that— this will be... this is going to be an issue that will be solved between vladimir— an issue that will be solved between vladimir putin and volodymyr zelensky. and insisting on that as it principle — zelensky. and insisting on that as it principle and following the ukrainian league, we are accountable without, _ ukrainian league, we are accountable without, we _ ukrainian league, we are accountable without, we are ctrl that the ukrainian _ without, we are ctrl that the ukrainian people will provide only so much — ukrainian people will provide only so much for negotiating and compromising ukraine's sovereignty and independence, if at all. i think the fact— and independence, if at all. i think the fact is— and independence, if at all. i think the fact is that this is fundamentally going to be settled on the ground in ukraine by the

ukrainian— the ground in ukraine by the ukrainian armed forces matching up against _ ukrainian armed forces matching up against the _ ukrainian armed forces matching up against the russian armed forces and the us— against the russian armed forces and the us plays a marginal role with regards _ the us plays a marginal role with regards to— the us plays a marginal role with regards to diplomacy. the biggest thing _ regards to diplomacy. the biggest thing we _ regards to diplomacy. the biggest thing we can do is support ukraine in a robust — thing we can do is support ukraine in a robust manner where they can compet— in a robust manner where they can compel the — in a robust manner where they can compel the russians to enter negotiations earnestly with the desire — negotiations earnestly with the desire of compromise and exiting ukraine, — desire of compromise and exiting ukraine, going back to russian territory — ukraine, going back to russian territory. that is probably as much of a supporting role as the us will do. of a supporting role as the us will do i_ of a supporting role as the us will do ithink— of a supporting role as the us will do. i think president biden stated the same — do. i think president biden stated the same thing that many of us had saidi _ the same thing that many of us had said. that _ the same thing that many of us had said, that this is the beginning of the end _ said, that this is the beginning of the end of— said, that this is the beginning of the end of president putin. he is not going — the end of president putin. he is not going to stay in power. it was not going to stay in power. it was not an— not going to stay in power. it was not an assertion of regime change, as a policy— not an assertion of regime change, as a policy of the united states, he has had _ as a policy of the united states, he has had to— as a policy of the united states, he has had to clarify this issue to a certain— has had to clarify this issue to a certain extent because of bureaucratic mismanagement immediately the white house came out and started to changes words. if

they let — and started to changes words. if they let it— and started to changes words. if they let it stand and what he said, he could _ they let it stand and what he said, he could have clarity —— clarified it in _ he could have clarity —— clarified it in follow—up commentary, saying it in follow—up commentary, saying it is not— it in follow—up commentary, saying it is not about regime change, but saying _ it is not about regime change, but saying that — it is not about regime change, but saying that putin will play a huge price _ saying that putin will play a huge price for— saying that putin will play a huge price for getting russia involved in the war~ _ price for getting russia involved in the war. . , . , the war. that is an interesting oint. the war. that is an interesting point- have — the war. that is an interesting point- have a _ the war. that is an interesting point. have a listen _ the war. that is an interesting point. have a listen to - the war. that is an interesting point. have a listen to the - the war. that is an interesting point. have a listen to the uk| point. have a listen to the uk foreign secretary liz truss talking in the house of commons today. sanctions were put on by the g7 in unison. and they shouldn't be removed, as long as putin continues with his war and he still has troops in ukraine. that is not all. we need to ensure that putin can never act in this aggressive way again. any long—term settlement needs to include a clear sanction snapback which would be triggered automatically by any russian aggression. did you get the sense, carl bildt, that president biden has set the hare running here? clearly she is making a point in relation to what

he said in warsaw this weekend. as liz truss spelling out what many europeans think, that really this is, that sanctions will continue to be imposed as long as putin is there? ., . ., , , be imposed as long as putin is there? ., . ., , there? the lifting of sanctions is a iuestion there? the lifting of sanctions is a question for _ there? the lifting of sanctions is a question for the _ there? the lifting of sanctions is a question for the us _ there? the lifting of sanctions is a question for the us primarily. - there? the lifting of sanctions is a question for the us primarily. she j question for the us primarily. she referred _ question for the us primarily. she referred to — question for the us primarily. she referred to the g7 as well. exactly the conditions for lifting sanctions hasn't _ the conditions for lifting sanctions hasn't been specified. 0f the conditions for lifting sanctions hasn't been specified. of course, it is president — hasn't been specified. of course, it is president zelensky who is the key man or— is president zelensky who is the key man or the — is president zelensky who is the key man or the people of ukraine. but there _ man or the people of ukraine. but there has— man or the people of ukraine. but there has to be issues of compensation, there might be questions of legal responsibility for war— questions of legal responsibility for war crimes, there might questions of legal responsibility forwar crimes, there might be questions of legal responsibility for war crimes, there might be ex members — for war crimes, there might be ex members of other issues, there was the mention— members of other issues, there was the mention of possibility of snapback provision if there was continued — snapback provision if there was continued violation. i think there will be _ continued violation. i think there will be a — continued violation. i think there will be a quite a number of issues that should — will be a quite a number of issues that should be on the table. it is not going — that should be on the table. it is not going to be formally a question of whether mr putin is there or not, but the _ of whether mr putin is there or not, but the reality is of course that it

is going — but the reality is of course that it is going to — but the reality is of course that it is going to be extremely difficult for leaders of the west to sit down with president putin personally on any subject in any forum for a very lon- any subject in any forum for a very lohg time — any subject in any forum for a very lohg time to — any subject in any forum for a very long time to come indeed.- any subject in any forum for a very long time to come indeed. lesia, can we talk about — long time to come indeed. lesia, can we talk about this _ long time to come indeed. lesia, can we talk about this report _ long time to come indeed. lesia, can we talk about this report that - long time to come indeed. lesia, can we talk about this report that is - we talk about this report that is emerging tonight about the ill effects the negotiators suffered while meeting in kyiv early this month. i was going to use the term suspected poisoning which is how bellingcat reported it tonight but there are sources in washington briefing writers tonight that they suspect it was environmental and nature, whatever that means. there are however thing is that we learn from this report. the first is that roman abramovich was at this negotiation in kyiv at the beginning of the month, confirming that he is playing the role, and sources close to him have confirmed he did suffer the symptoms consistent with a chemical poisoning, including peeling skin on his face and hands and read teary—eyed. it is reportedly lost to sight for several

hours and was rated treated in turkey. lesia, can you shed any light on this? have you spoken to the ukrainian negotiators that were there? i the ukrainian negotiators that were there? . ., ., ., the ukrainian negotiators that were there? ., ., ., ., , the ukrainian negotiators that were there? . ., ., ., , ., there? i have, and one of them is a member of— there? i have, and one of them is a member of my _ there? i have, and one of them is a member of my party. _ there? i have, and one of them is a member of my party, and - there? i have, and one of them is a member of my party, and there - there? i have, and one of them is a| member of my party, and there was there? i have, and one of them is a i member of my party, and there was a rumour going around this morning that apparently he himself too was poisoned. these rumours were true, and i have spoken to others today, he is fine and well and in turkey preparing for the negotiations so it is still unclear what is going on there, with all of these rumours happening on the ground, it could be, as it turned out into the public lightjust before the negotiations, this could be an instrument for these negotiations to go one way or these negotiations to go one way or the other, but unfortunately i cannot tell you any more than that. so we don't want to know what environmental in nature would be, there was nothing wrong with the room, there was nothing untoward

while they were meeting? yes. room, there was nothing untoward while they were meeting? yes, that is a second — while they were meeting? yes, that is a second what _ while they were meeting? yes, that is a second what i _ while they were meeting? yes, that is a second what i mean. _ while they were meeting? yes, that is a second what i mean. it's - while they were meeting? yes, that is a second what i mean. it's either| is a second what i mean. it's either somebody using this as a setup for further negotiations. but in any case just turning to a different point, there are a lot of concerns about russia actually using chemical weapons in ukraine or preparing to use chemical weapons. there is a lot of concern going around the ukrainian armed forces and also the ukrainian armed forces and also the ukrainian government. we don't know yet to what extent this is true and to what extent they are prepared to use that and also that would mean a whole different military front for the ukrainians, as well as for what do we do and to what extent do we prepare our civilian population to withstand such an attack if one ever happens. withstand such an attack if one ever ha ens. ~ withstand such an attack if one ever hauens. ~ , ., withstand such an attack if one ever ha ens. ~ .., , ., ., happens. well, it comes down to the lack of trust — happens. well, it comes down to the lack of trust that _ happens. well, it comes down to the lack of trust that there _ happens. well, it comes down to the lack of trust that there is, _ lack of trust that there is, generally. can i ask you, the fact

that you know the people that were in the room in these negotiations with roman abramovich, does that suggest to us that actually the ukrainian parliament is playing quite a significant role in these talks and how they are framed? these talks, talks and how they are framed? these talks. again. — talks and how they are framed? these talks. again. they _ talks and how they are framed? these talks, again, they are _ talks and how they are framed? tire talks, again, they are happening in a very close to manner. we don't have much information about them, as ukrainian parliamentarians as well, but at the same time, what we do know is that the parties involved and the people involved in these negotiations, they are very firm on conveying the general response of the ukrainian population. and the general response of the ukrainian population is such that we are not very to cede any of our territories and we are not ready to cede any of our freedoms, and we are not ready to cede any of ourfreedoms, which we have and we are not ready to cede any of our freedoms, which we have as a sovereign state and as the sovereign nation inside of a sovereign state. carl bildt, on the way this issue

wasjumped on this carl bildt, on the way this issue was jumped on this afternoon, does really speak of the regime that we are dealing with, that people immediatelyjump to conclusions that there was a chemical poisoning. because, let's face it, it has happened many times before. the bbc has reported today that the future prime minister —— someone who was close to boris yeltsin, he had been tailed for several months before he was shot dead in moscow, said this is a regime that does away with people it is like. it is a regime that does away with people it is like.— people it is like. it certainly is and we have _ people it is like. it certainly is and we have also _ people it is like. it certainly is and we have also had - people it is like. it certainly is and we have also had reports| people it is like. it certainly is - and we have also had reports today and we have also had reports today and earlier— and we have also had reports today and earlier of different groups of people _ and earlier of different groups of people that have been sent to assassinate president zelensky. there _ assassinate president zelensky. there is— assassinate president zelensky. there is no question there were attempts— there is no question there were attempts of that sort. i don't know how far—reaching in the beginning of this particular aggression. and they have been— this particular aggression. and they have been repeated reports along those _ have been repeated reports along those lines. in view of what mr putin— those lines. in view of what mr putin said. _ those lines. in view of what mr putin said, he called mr zelensky, a dru- putin said, he called mr zelensky, a drug addict. — putin said, he called mr zelensky, a drug addict, a neo—nazi or whatever,

one cannot _ drug addict, a neo—nazi or whatever, one cannot discount these reports. we have _ one cannot discount these reports. we have to — one cannot discount these reports. we have to be, everyone has to be extremely — we have to be, everyone has to be extremely careful. we are dealing with a _ extremely careful. we are dealing with a regime that is desperate to reach _ with a regime that is desperate to reach very— with a regime that is desperate to reach very far—reaching aims indeed. cotonet— reach very far—reaching aims indeed. colonel vindman, reach very far—reaching aims indeed. colonelvindman, do reach very far—reaching aims indeed. colonel vindman, do you suspect there are divisions in moscow, that certain groups want different things? if this had been a chemical poisoning, we would have been asking ourselves whether they were groups in moscow that were seeking to sabotage the talks? we do know that the group that came to kyiv apparently looking for president zelensky was tipped off by russians. well, that is one of the rumours or theories _ well, that is one of the rumours or theories in— well, that is one of the rumours or theories. in fact, they have always been _ theories. in fact, they have always been different factions within the russian — been different factions within the russian government. the technocratic factions. _ russian government. the technocratic factions, the power structures, those _ factions, the power structures, those were always historically intentioned, the way that the putin

regime _ intentioned, the way that the putin regime has unfolded, you have one state _ regime has unfolded, you have one state power structure faction that has become the dominant role, but the other— has become the dominant role, but the other elements haven't gone away _ the other elements haven't gone away the — the other elements haven't gone away. the business leaders have been suppressed. _ away. the business leaders have been suppressed, their power has been neutralised. president putin's mastery— neutralised. president putin's mastery of russian politics is his ability— mastery of russian politics is his ability to— mastery of russian politics is his ability to kind of keep these, all these _ ability to kind of keep these, all these factions, in balance, the ones that he _ these factions, in balance, the ones that he was— these factions, in balance, the ones that he was dominating in the lead. ithink— that he was dominating in the lead. i think we _ that he was dominating in the lead. i think we will of with regards to sections — i think we will of with regards to sections unfolding over the coming weeks _ sections unfolding over the coming weeks and — sections unfolding over the coming weeks and months, this war on the battlefield — weeks and months, this war on the battlefield and the consequences of all these _ battlefield and the consequences of all these casualties, are these factions— all these casualties, are these factions are going right to continue tojockey_ factions are going right to continue tojockey for control, factions are going right to continue to jockey for control, and that will bubble _ to jockey for control, and that will bubbte up. — to jockey for control, and that will bubble up, as well as the socioeconomic protest that are likety— socioeconomic protest that are likely to — socioeconomic protest that are likely to unfold with regards to people — likely to unfold with regards to people not been able to provide basic— people not been able to provide basic needs for their families, security— basic needs for their families, security service, not enjoying the kind of— security service, not enjoying the kind of windfalls in terms of financial— kind of windfalls in terms of financial windfalls they have got

historically. this is part of the way— historically. this is part of the way piggyback power will unravel in the lohg _ way piggyback power will unravel in the long term. i'm not saying there is going _ the long term. i'm not saying there is going to — the long term. i'm not saying there is going to be a killer tent or something like that but it will be increasingly hard for him to manage these _ increasingly hard for him to manage these factions. —— i am increasingly hard for him to manage these factions. —— lam not increasingly hard for him to manage these factions. —— i am not saying there's— these factions. —— i am not saying there's going to be a killer attempt. —— i—macro t'attend. this will ultimately lead to his undoing. the next _ will ultimately lead to his undoing. the next decades and over the course of the _ the next decades and over the course of the next _ the next decades and over the course of the next several years. that is my suspicion. of the next several years. that is my suspicion-— of the next several years. that is my suspicion. carl bildt, thank you for “oinini my suspicion. carl bildt, thank you forjoining us— my suspicion. carl bildt, thank you forjoining us from _ my suspicion. carl bildt, thank you forjoining us from stockholm, - my suspicion. carl bildt, thank you forjoining us from stockholm, andj forjoining us from stockholm, and lesia vasylenko, thank you for joining us in kyiv, stay safe over there. stay with us. plenty more to come. we'll talk about the federal investigation into the capital riots on january the sex and investigation into the capital riots onjanuary the sex and the comments of a judge in california today who spoke about covid in china, and also

that incident at the oscars. do stay with us. hello there. the weather will look and feel very different through the rest of this week. today it was warm enough in the sunshine. highest temperatures were around glasgow, 18 degrees here, and some magnolias too. cold air is sitting to the north of scotland and that will get swept southwards as we develop a northerly wind in the next few days, so these are the temperatures we are looking at on thursday. maximum temperatures. with those sort of numbers, we are likely to find sleet and snow falling almost anywhere from mid week onwards. coldest weather today has been across northern parts of england, where we have been stuck under a cloud, there has been some rain as well. that rain is tending to ease off overnight, we still have the threat of rain coming in from the channel across southernmost parts of england and we will see a band of rain moving down into the

north of scotland. the rest of mainland scotland will have clear skies, which could lead to a touch of frost by the end of the night. milder elsewhere, a lot of low cloud and mist and fog come back in off the north sea, pushing its way into the midlands. some places will stay grey all day, but for many, it may well brighten up. some sunshine, leading to a few showers breaking out. still the threat of some rain in the channel to the far south of england, and that wet weather pushing further south, turning to sleet and snow in the hills. it will be colder tomorrow, maximum temperature 14 in the west, a lot colder across northern parts of scotland, the colder air coming in across that cold front, bringing that rain southwards. we will find some sleet and snow over the hills of northern england and north wales. to the north of that, that really cold air is going to mean sunshine and wintry showers, as the cold air continues to push down behind that weather front, that is where it is on wednesday. still have some wet weather into wednesday night,

and with the colder air continuing to dig in behind that, could well find some sleet and snow falling even on lower levels across southern parts of england and wales, could be a light covering in places on thursday morning. that will push away, then it's sunshine and a whole rash of wintry showers on thursday — hail, sleet and snow, a good deal of those across the eastern side of the uk. here temperatures may be no better than six or seven degrees on thursday, but with some stronger northerly winds as well, it will feel quite a bit colder than that.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching context on bbc news. ukraine and russia prepare for the first face—to—face peace talks in more than two weeks. but hopes aren't exactly high. it's emerged that russian billionaire roman abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in kyiv earlier this month. a us judge says former president donald trump "likely" committed crimes in a bid to overturn the results of the 2020 election. chaos at coronavirus testing sites in china as shanghai's 25 million residents go into lockdown. and the oscars organisers condemn will smith's slapping of chris rock following a joke at his wife's expense. tonight with the context, retired lieutenant colonel,

alexander vindman, former director for european affairs on the us national security council. and also the former labour adviser and comedian and ayesha hazarika. welcome back. a federaljudge in california says donald trump "more likely than not" committed a federal crime in trying to stop the counting of the electoral votes onjanuary 6th, 2021. that's the phrase — �*more likely than not�*. it's not a conviction, it's not an indictment. ..an opinion. but it's an important one. separate to that, the washington post is reporting that the congressional committee investigating the insurrection will seek an interview with virginia thomas. ginni, as she's called, is the wife of the supreme court justice clarence thomas. and she's been in the news recently over the discussions

she was having to try and help the trump white house overturn the 2020 election. let's bring in the bbc�*s anthony zurcher to walk us through all this. notan not an indictment, but a significant choice of words from this federal judge in california. 5. choice of words from this federal judge in california.— judge in california. s, and the federaljudge _ judge in california. s, and the federaljudge was _ judge in california. s, and the federaljudge was looking - judge in california. s, and the federaljudge was looking at l judge in california. s, and the - federaljudge was looking at e-mails federaljudge was looking at e—mails that a law professor in california was sending to donald trump in the january —— and the january six investigatory committee in congress wanted to get their hands on e—mails to see what was being said about challenging the election results. eastman said that he did not want to share the e—mails and client attorney protection protects that, but that does not protect them with the invariance of a crime. thejudge looked at one e—mail in particular and said that the attorney client privilege is punctured because it

was invariance of a crime and it was more likely than not that they were conspiring to commit a crime, a violation of federal law in challenging the election results. so that was the specific binding here, it is not that donald trump will necessarily be indicted, but it is a judge who is looking at the evidence and saying, there is a chance that donald trump committed a crime. i don't make an agreement with the committee, because it has been closely watched. —— i agree with the committee. it has been said that they suspected that eastman and donald trump have been suspected of a felony, but the judge says this may be the first formal finding of criminal activity. so the question is, what is now? what does the justice department do with this? that is the big question and this could raise the pressure on the justice department to bring criminal charges against donald trump. there

is certainly a political component to this, even if it is a legal case unrelated to an investigation into donald trump. there is a political component to this and the political pressure on congress and members on this committee, thejustice department, it will be increased because of this finding. they can say, this is a judge who look at the evidence that said that it is more likely than not, there was a crime here, that donald trump was involved in. we are going to see calls increase for the justice department to do something about it and they will point to this case, this finding in particular as evidence that they should act.— finding in particular as evidence that they should act. several people ve hiih that they should act. several people very high ranking — that they should act. several people very high ranking people _ that they should act. several people very high ranking people bought- that they should act. several people| very high ranking people bought into these conspiracy theories and now we learn one of them was ginny thomas, wife of the supreme courtjustice, and she bought in quite heavily into the conspiracy theories and she talks about one of her friends, and

she and her husband have spoken about being best friends with him before. in one of the ruling is the supreme court issued, he was alone presenting voice relating to the camp documents going to the national archives, which he did not want them to go to. is he in a position where he needs to recuse himself on decisions related to january the 6th? , ., ., ., , decisions related to january the 6th? , ., ., .,, ., .,, 6th? needs to and has to, obliged to, the 6th? needs to and has to, obliged to. they are _ 6th? needs to and has to, obliged to. they are very _ 6th? needs to and has to, obliged to, they are very different - to, they are very different questions. this definitely will have to increase pressure on him, increased pressure on him to recuse himself, but there is no ethical rule governing supreme court justices. they govern federaljudges in the lower courts, but they do not apply to supreme courtjustices. it is a self policing group of nine men and women on the high court and they decide individually when they might recuse themselves and when they might not, and there is no one who can tell them, you must step aside

on this case. they must volunteer for that. so if it was up to clarence thomas, it is up to him whether he needs to step aside on these matters. the more evidence that mounts, the more it becomes a headache for the supreme court and for republicans, because here you have a member of the supreme court who has a connection to a woman who was participating very closely in attempts to overturn the election results, and it is not a good look when that justice as results, and it is not a good look when thatjustice as you mentioned, is one of the soul of voices objecting to the furtherance of this investigation.— investigation. yes, thank you for that. i investigation. yes, thank you for that- i want _ investigation. yes, thank you for that. i want to _ investigation. yes, thank you for that. i want to put _ investigation. yes, thank you for that. i want to put this _ investigation. yes, thank you for that. i want to put this to - investigation. yes, thank you for that. i want to put this to you, i that. i want to put this to you, colonel. i should say you are not impartial, wholly impartial on this, because you are suing former members of the administration. but what do you make of what you are hearing tonight? does it tally with your experience of what went on in this white house?—

white house? certainly it seems clear that the _ white house? certainly it seems clear that the president, - white house? certainly it seems clear that the president, even i white house? certainly it seems clear that the president, even if| clear that the president, even if ham _ clear that the president, even if ham handedty. _ clear that the president, even if ham handedly, tried _ clear that the president, even if ham handedly, tried multiple i clear that the president, even if- ham handedly, tried multiple means to attain— ham handedly, tried multiple means to attain power. _ ham handedly, tried multiple means to attain power, and _ ham handedly, tried multiple means to attain power, and that _ ham handedly, tried multiple means to attain power, and that was - to attain power, and that was through— to attain power, and that was through the _ to attain power, and that was through the courts _ to attain power, and that was through the courts where i to attain power, and that was through the courts where he i to attain power, and that was i through the courts where he failed extensively — through the courts where he failed extensively basically— through the courts where he failed extensively basically not _ through the courts where he failed extensively basically not having i through the courts where he failed l extensively basically not having any success _ extensively basically not having any success whatsoever, _ extensively basically not having any success whatsoever, an _ extensively basically not having any success whatsoever, an effort - extensively basically not having any success whatsoever, an effort led i extensively basically not having anyl success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani. — success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani, and _ success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani, and he _ success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani, and he tried _ success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani, and he tried to - success whatsoever, an effort led by rudy giuliani, and he tried to do i rudy giuliani, and he tried to do that by— rudy giuliani, and he tried to do that by applying _ rudy giuliani, and he tried to do that by applying pressure - rudy giuliani, and he tried to do that by applying pressure to i rudy giuliani, and he tried to do. that by applying pressure to state secretaries — that by applying pressure to state secretaries the _ that by applying pressure to state secretaries the state _ that by applying pressure to state secretaries the state level, - that by applying pressure to state secretaries the state level, to i that by applying pressure to state i secretaries the state level, to have them _ secretaries the state level, to have them change — secretaries the state level, to have them change the _ secretaries the state level, to have them change the election- secretaries the state level, to have i them change the election outcomes. thereon— them change the election outcomes. thereon numerous... _ them change the election outcomes. thereon numerous... there - them change the election outcomes. thereon numerous... there are i thereon numerous... there are numerous — thereon numerous... there are numerous ways _ thereon numerous... there are numerous ways he _ thereon numerous... there are numerous ways he was - thereon numerous... there are numerous ways he was looking | thereon numerous... there are i numerous ways he was looking to retain _ numerous ways he was looking to retain power~ _ numerous ways he was looking to retain power~ i_ numerous ways he was looking to retain power. i first—hand - retain power. i first—hand experience _ retain power. ifirst—hand experience is— retain power. ifirst—hand experience is in- retain power. i first—hand experience is in the - retain power. i first—hand i experience is in the ukraine retain power. i first—hand _ experience is in the ukraine scandal when _ experience is in the ukraine scandal when he _ experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was — experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was looking _ experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was looking to _ experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was looking to cheat - experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was looking to cheat in i experience is in the ukraine scandal when he was looking to cheat in the 2020 _ when he was looking to cheat in the 2020 election— when he was looking to cheat in the 2020 election by— when he was looking to cheat in the 2020 election by getting _ when he was looking to cheat in the 2020 election by getting the - 2020 election by getting the president— 2020 election by getting the president to _ 2020 election by getting the president to provide - 2020 election by getting the president to provide dirt i 2020 election by getting the president to provide dirt onl 2020 election by getting the . president to provide dirt on his opponent. _ president to provide dirt on his opponent. to _ president to provide dirt on his opponent. to tip _ president to provide dirt on his opponent, to tip the _ president to provide dirt on his opponent, to tip the scales i president to provide dirt on his opponent, to tip the scales in. president to provide dirt on his. opponent, to tip the scales in his favour— opponent, to tip the scales in his favour and — opponent, to tip the scales in his favour and cast— opponent, to tip the scales in his favour and cast a _ opponent, to tip the scales in his favour and cast a shadow - opponent, to tip the scales in his favour and cast a shadow over. opponent, to tip the scales in his i favour and cast a shadow over then vice president— favour and cast a shadow over then vice president biden. _ favour and cast a shadow over then vice president biden. it— favour and cast a shadow over then vice president biden. it has- favour and cast a shadow over then vice president biden. it has been. favour and cast a shadow over then vice president biden. it has been a| vice president biden. it has been a continuing — vice president biden. it has been a continuing enterprise _ vice president biden. it has been a continuing enterprise since - vice president biden. it has been a continuing enterprise since 2019, i vice president biden. it has been ai continuing enterprise since 2019, at least from _

continuing enterprise since 2019, at least from my— continuing enterprise since 2019, at least from my experience. - continuing enterprise since 2019, at least from my experience. all - continuing enterprise since 2019, at least from my experience. all the i least from my experience. all the way through— least from my experience. all the way through to _ least from my experience. all the way through to the _ least from my experience. all the way through to the end. - least from my experience. all the way through to the end. this i least from my experience. all the way through to the end. this wasl least from my experience. all the i way through to the end. this was my expectation — way through to the end. this was my expectation all — way through to the end. this was my expectation all along, _ way through to the end. this was my expectation all along, but _ expectation all along, but eventually _ expectation all along, but eventually out _ expectation all along, but eventually out of - expectation all along, but eventually out of power, i expectation all along, but i eventually out of power, there expectation all along, but _ eventually out of power, there would be an _ eventually out of power, there would be an effort — eventually out of power, there would be an effort under— eventually out of power, there would be an effort under way— eventually out of power, there would be an effort under way for— be an effort under way for accountability. _ be an effort under way for accountability. my - be an effort under way for. accountability. my litigation be an effort under way for- accountability. my litigation is my effort _ accountability. my litigation is my effort for — accountability. my litigation is my effort for accountability, - accountability. my litigation is my effort for accountability, to - effort for accountability, to disclose _ effort for accountability, to disclose the _ effort for accountability, to disclose the president's i effort for accountability, to i disclose the president's abuse effort for accountability, to - disclose the president's abuse of power— disclose the president's abuse of power and — disclose the president's abuse of power and his— disclose the president's abuse of power and his abuse _ disclose the president's abuse of power and his abuse of- disclose the president's abuse of power and his abuse of power. disclose the president's abuse ofi power and his abuse of power and retaliation. — power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and _ power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and this _ power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and this is _ power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and this is part- power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and this is part of- power and his abuse of power and retaliation, and this is part of a i retaliation, and this is part of a bigger— retaliation, and this is part of a bigger landscape _ retaliation, and this is part of a bigger landscape in _ retaliation, and this is part of a bigger landscape in capturing i retaliation, and this is part of a i bigger landscape in capturing this. what _ bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers _ bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers me _ bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers me is _ bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers me is it— bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers me is it is— bigger landscape in capturing this. what bothers me is it is starting. bigger landscape in capturing this. | what bothers me is it is starting to play out _ what bothers me is it is starting to play out in — what bothers me is it is starting to play out in the _ what bothers me is it is starting to play out in the courts _ what bothers me is it is starting to play out in the courts and - what bothers me is it is starting to play out in the courts and it - what bothers me is it is starting to play out in the courts and it may. play out in the courts and it may well _ play out in the courts and it may well get — play out in the courts and it may well get decided _ play out in the courts and it may well get decided in _ play out in the courts and it may well get decided in the - play out in the courts and it may well get decided in the supreme court _ well get decided in the supreme court there _ well get decided in the supreme court. there was _ well get decided in the supreme court. there was a _ well get decided in the supreme court. there was a sacrosanct i well get decided in the supreme i court. there was a sacrosanct notion that the _ court. there was a sacrosanct notion that the supreme _ court. there was a sacrosanct notion that the supreme court _ court. there was a sacrosanct notion that the supreme court was - court. there was a sacrosanct notion that the supreme court was above . that the supreme court was above politics _ that the supreme court was above potitics i— that the supreme court was above politics itear— that the supreme court was above politics. i fear that _ that the supreme court was above politics. i fear that that _ that the supreme court was above politics. i fear that that is - that the supreme court was above politics. i fear that that is no - politics. i fear that that is no longer— politics. i fear that that is no longer the _ politics. i fear that that is no longer the case. _ politics. i fear that that is no longer the case. it— politics. i fear that that is no longer the case. it is- politics. i fear that that is no . longer the case. it is perceived politics. i fear that that is no - longer the case. it is perceived as a partisan — longer the case. it is perceived as a partisan instrument _ longer the case. it is perceived as a partisan instrument where - longer the case. it is perceived as| a partisan instrument where there longer the case. it is perceived as. a partisan instrument where there is a partisan instrument where there is a 6-3_ a partisan instrument where there is a 6-3 majority— a partisan instrument where there is a 6—3 majority conservative - a partisan instrument where there is a 6—3 majority conservative to - a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal. — a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal. and _ a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal, and that _ a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal, and that is _ a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal, and that is the - a 6—3 majority conservative to liberal, and that is the way. a 6—3 majority conservative to| liberal, and that is the way the court _ liberal, and that is the way the court is — liberal, and that is the way the court is perceived. _

liberal, and that is the way the court is perceived. you - liberal, and that is the way the court is perceived.— liberal, and that is the way the court is perceived. you have your suspicions _ court is perceived. you have your suspicions about _ court is perceived. you have your suspicions about the _ court is perceived. you have your suspicions about the court - court is perceived. you have your i suspicions about the court founded on what anthony has told us. i have never asked you before but i know you are writing a book on it, how do you are writing a book on it, how do you believe what happened over that incident, the debate whether or not to send the javelin is at that period in time, the trump administration did a lot for ukraine sending trainers to ukraine, sending weapons, but do you believe that particular period was crucial to where we are today and ukraine's ability to defend itself? absolutely. we should recognise that the business of government is to protect us national security interests. he had plenty of professionals under the previous two administration is doing the work of advancing that effort started with president obama in 2014 and continued an advance under president john's administration, but it was president trump himself who was the

biggest impediment to healthy relations with ukraine that would have avoided the outcomes we have today. we should remember that as a consequence of the ukraine scandal, ukraine became radioactive. presidents are ski became radioactive. that is probably one of the key data points for president putin in deciding whether to conduct this offensive. what is the perspective, the cost of conducting this offensive? and his signalling was that at least half of the political elites would come down on the side of putin, the consequences of these actions would be limited, and that carried on all the way through the hours before the offensive, when president trump was praising and cheering president putin, talking about how it was an attempt to snap up half of ukraine. that is the legacy of the trump administration. the javelins been provided, they were by capable folks

that were in leadership positions in december of 2017, thinking that is what we needed to do to avoid a confrontation, making ukraine hardened against rushing attacks. president trump acted against us national security interests and precipitated the conflict we see today. it's drove this thinking about the weakness of the us, about the divisions between the us and nato, and i think president trump and his minions have blood on their hands. . ~ hands. interesting. we will get republicans — hands. interesting. we will get republicans on _ hands. interesting. we will get republicans on that _ hands. interesting. we will get republicans on that later - hands. interesting. we will get republicans on that later in - hands. interesting. we will get| republicans on that later in the week to talk about that but some interesting points. you were nodding, ayesha. lovely to have you with us. . nodding, ayesha. lovely to have you with us. , . , , . with us. yes, i absolutely agree with us. yes, i absolutely agree with so much — with us. yes, i absolutely agree with so much of— with us. yes, i absolutely agree with so much of what _ with us. yes, i absolutely agree with so much of what was - with us. yes, i absolutely agree with so much of what was said. | with so much of what was said. remember, donald trump said putin was a genius, they were the absolute words he said, and we should not kid ourselves. putin would have been

very happy having donald trump in the white house. remember, donald trump really tried to pull up the threads of nato, donald trump really tried to undermine multilateralism, the concept of nato, america first, he very much pushed this sort of go it alone strongman type leadership. and, actually, what this russian invasion has done, one of the unintended consequences of president putin's invasion is to remind people in the west that, actually, nato is really important, that these alliances, this multilateralism is very important. and donald trump is against all of that.— against all of that. yes, some important _ against all of that. yes, some important themes _ against all of that. yes, some important themes that - against all of that. yes, some important themes that have l against all of that. yes, some - important themes that have come together in the context of what we have been discussing in ukraine. the thing is, there is always an e—mail trail, which brings us to our next story. there is breaking news in the last hour that the bbc has been told at least 15 people will be fined by

police who have been investigating government parties at downing street during the pandemic. sources at westminster say the first batch of fixed penalty notices will be issued immenently, possibly tomorrow. ayes ha, ayesha, it has slightly gone off the boil, this. partly because the labour leader has let it go off the boil, he has thrown his lot in with borisjohnson in support of ukraine, and the sanctions, and i guess from his point of view, undermining boris johnson at this point in time is not particularly helpful, but this brings it back to before, and i wonder what you make of the news that 15 people will face these fixed penalty notices. it is that 15 people will face these fixed penalty noticea— penalty notices. it is very important _ penalty notices. it is very important that _ penalty notices. it is very important that the - penalty notices. it is very important that the police | penalty notices. it is very - important that the police have penalty notices. it is very _ important that the police have been carrying on this investigation. of course, other things happen in politics and events happening, the invasion of ukraine has been huge and pretty much created this one story in town. but we should not

forget that absolute anger and rage that people up and down the country felt towards the prime minister and those in at number ten, because we were operating under the most draconian cuts to our civil liberties are people did not say goodbye today dying relatives, some of them could not even say goodbye on an ipad. they all stop to the rules. but the prime minister and number ten —— they all stuck to the rules, but the prime minister at number ten did not. rules, but the prime minister at numberten did not. it rules, but the prime minister at number ten did not. it is not the issue has gone away, but the media has been dominated by this incredibly important story in ukraine. fora lot incredibly important story in ukraine. for a lot of people out there, and this is people right across the political spectrum, i have done many tv shows and radio shows, lifelong conservative voters have a run in saying they were so mad and heartbroken that they had stuck to the rules. at great personal cost, and the prime minister had not. this story has not

gone away. minister had not. this story has not one awa . ~ . minister had not. this story has not gone away-— minister had not. this story has not gone away. what we do not know is whether boris _ gone away. what we do not know is whether boris johnson _ gone away. what we do not know is whether boris johnson is _ gone away. what we do not know is whether boris johnson is one - gone away. what we do not know is whether boris johnson is one of - whether borisjohnson is one of these 15, and there is a suggestion that he may not be fined because this was his home, and that is the decision the police have to come to in the coming days. i want to ask you, what do you think labour�*s position should be and do you suspect, given they will be a number of staff who will be fined who might have thought about the way the prime minister behaved, do you suspect that more will come out? because they will feel particularly aggrieved about that. they will feel particularly a: arieved about that. . aggrieved about that. remember, there is one _ aggrieved about that. remember, there is one particularly _ there is one particularly disgruntled former employee, dominic cummings, who has made it his life's work to bring discomfort to the prime minister. i think a lot of staffers at number ten, i used to work there, and the idea of throwing junior members of staff under the bus is not very noble, and i think a lot of people will not take kindly

to this. the other thing it is important to point out is the metropolitan police is not exactly being held in high regard at the moment, and i have worked in downing street, i worked under tony blair, under gordon brown, and the buck does stop with the boss. when you work at number ten, you call the prime minister the boss. that is the slant you use. i think to govern is to lead and if you cannot even lead your team and take responsibility in your team and take responsibility in your own home when we are in unprecedented times, it is not a good look. remember, there are local elections coming down the track, so this party may not have gone away. 0ur political editor says tonight that it could be tonight we learn the names of these 15 people or it could be tomorrow, it is wait and see at the moment. turkey and israel are emerging as the two countries who might attempt to broker a peace agreement with ukraine. the one country that could force a solution is of course china. but for the moment it seems

not that interested. maybe that's because at home they are dealing with a crisis of their own — the war with covid. they have just announced the biggest city—wide lockdown since the covid outbreak began more than two years ago. tens of millions are already in lockdown and now the 25 million people living in shanghai arejoining that number, as china continues to follow its zero covid model. 0ur correspondent steve mcdonnell is there. panic buying led to fights, as shanghai's 25 million residents prepared to go into lockdown. from today, the east side of the financial capital is a ghost town. the west side will follow on friday. across china, daily covid tests are mostly orderly, but at times chaotic. in the third year of this crisis, the government's complete elimination strategy is under huge strain, with signs of pandemic exhaustion. those who break the rules are being taken away by the police, some are forced

to make public confessions. here are a woman pleads to be allowed to leave home so her husband can receive urgent cancer treatment. from the north—east to the south, tens of millions of people are now confined to their homes. and yet compared with the united states and europe, the infection rates are pretty low. in the week prior to 24th march, there were just over 1a,000 new cases in the whole of mainland china. in the uk over a similar period, there were over 610,000 new infections. albeit the vaccines here are working and hospitalisation is comparitively low. rising, but low comparative to where they might have been two years ago with that level of infection. ayes ha, ayesha, when you put the stats together, you show what china is doing a 1a,000 infections in a week and what we are doing here, it is remarkable, really, but does that speak about the confidence they have in their vaccine? does it not stop

the hospitalisations to the extent hours to? it the hospitalisations to the extent hours to? . the hospitalisations to the extent hours to? , , . ., hours to? it is difficult for countries _ hours to? it is difficult for countries that _ hours to? it is difficult for countries that have - hours to? it is difficult for countries that have been | hours to? it is difficult for - countries that have been pursuing a aggressive zero covid strategy. you can only do that for so long a time. it is also important to remember cases are rising and there is a certain population in china and hong kong that have not been vaccinated because there is this deep mistrust in the government, so a lot of these cases are with older people who have been hitherto unvaccinated. but it is really interesting looking at the case numbers. in the uk, cases are rocketing up. in scotland it is the highest ever since the pandemic, one in 11 in scotland is carrying the virus, i havejust had covid badly, it was not a mild cold. i was wiped out the eight days and nobody wants to go back to these very

restrictions. —— very draconian restrictions. —— very draconian restrictions. it seems crazy the government is ending free testing and we are not tracking the data in the way we used to. self responsibility is really important, free testing is the cornerstone of that. . ~' ., free testing is the cornerstone of that. , ,, ., . , that. yes, i know so many people with covid — that. yes, i know so many people with covid and _ that. yes, i know so many people with covid and i _ that. yes, i know so many people with covid and i am _ that. yes, i know so many people with covid and i am sure - that. yes, i know so many people | with covid and i am sure everyone that. yes, i know so many people i with covid and i am sure everyone is the same, anecdotally, loads of it around. i have the perfect guest for the last story we will tackle. before last night's oscars ceremony, there was the usual chatter about ratings, and how the academy can stay relevant to a younger audiences. they have tried all sort of ways to shake it up — big stars, live performances, back stage. you name it. i am not sure anyone could have quite predicted how this year's awards would get people talking. jada, i love you. gi jane 2, can't wait to see it, all right? that was a nice one! ok, i am out here... uh—oh. richa. .. wow.

chris rock's joke, gi jane 2, was a reference to jada pinkett smith's shaved head — a result of her condition, alopecia. shortly after he had smacked chris rock, will smith was awarded best actor for his role in king richard — and then came back to the stage. in this business you have got to be able to have people disrespecting you. and you have got to smile and pretend like that's ok. i want to apologise to the academy, i want to apologise to all my fellow nominees. today, the academy of motion pictures, arts and sciences said it condemns will smith's actions. the academy is launching a formal review of the altercation, and will explore further actions. ayes ha, ayesha, i want to talk to you because you are a comedian, sol wonder what you see in that. ljust wonder what you see in that. i 'ust thou . ht wonder what you see in that. i 'ust thought the — wonder what you see in that. i 'ust thought the whole i wonder what you see in that. i 'ust thought the whole thing i

wonder what you see in that. limit thought the whole thing was awful. first of all, a believer in free speech, but also, if you are going to be a comedian and do an edgy joke, make sure it is a good joke. it was a really rubbish joke, and joke, make sure it is a good joke. it was a really rubbishjoke, and gi jane, that film was out in 1997, not even topical. it was very mean, crass and nasty. the woman has got alopecia. foranybody crass and nasty. the woman has got alopecia. for anybody to lose their hair, it is awful, particularly traumatic for women in the public eye, black women get a really hard time in the press, something which chris rock should know. really bad joke. will smith is right to be furious at thatjoke, but joke. will smith is right to be furious at that joke, but are furious at thatjoke, but are not all right to go and throw a punch. it is the oscars, not eastenders. the person i feel sorry for is jaeger, because it is incredibly embarrassing for her, by two dome accumulating for her. —— quite humiliating pair. we should be celebrating the fact that not many

black men have won oscars, and instead it is this incredibly unseemly fight. i think chris rock should apologise, but i don't think they should take the oscar away from will smith. idistill they should take the oscar away from will smith. ~ ,, . , will smith. will smith has apologised _ will smith. will smith has apologised to _ will smith. will smith has apologised to everybody l will smith. will smith has - apologised to everybody except will smith. will smith has _ apologised to everybody except chris rock. colonel, people will be wondering why you are relevant to this but you are mixing with the stars as well, i have seen a tweet from barbara streisand, who has enjoyed your company of late. friend of the stars, colonel. what did you make of this? i heard today that will smith's persona is an inventive one and in his book he felt guilty he did not protect his mother from his abusive father. i wondered, people have asked today, weather played role last night when he saw how heard his wife was, and that is why he got involved. —— how heard his wife was. i why he got involved. -- how heard his wife was-—

why he got involved. -- how heard his wife was. . . ., . ., his wife was. i am a common man on the street- — his wife was. i am a common man on the street- i — his wife was. i am a common man on the street- i am _ his wife was. i am a common man on the street- i am a — his wife was. i am a common man on the street. i am a big _ his wife was. i am a common man on the street. i am a big fan _ his wife was. i am a common man on the street. i am a big fan of- his wife was. i am a common man on the street. i am a big fan of will- the street. i am a big fan of will smith— the street. i am a big fan of will smith and — the street. i am a big fan of will smith and chris rock, they are both terrific— smith and chris rock, they are both terrific artists. this is a very unfortunate incident that played out publicly— unfortunate incident that played out publicly and i think both deserve criticism, — publicly and i think both deserve criticism, one for the joke that precipitated the action, but certainly for the violence and if not the — certainly for the violence and if not the glorification, the acceptance of violence, public violence _ acceptance of violence, public violence. it is not a good example to our— violence. it is not a good example to our young people that think it is ok. to our young people that think it is ok i_ to our young people that think it is ok i had — to our young people that think it is ok. i had my wife under attack from the far— ok. i had my wife under attack from the far right — ok. i had my wife under attack from the far right on numerous occasions. i the far right on numerous occasions. i tend _ i tend to ignore it. i do not know what i would do in the face of somebody staring me in the face, i think— somebody staring me in the face, i think it _ somebody staring me in the face, i think it probably would not go down well. partly because i am a military officer _ well. partly because i am a military officer but — well. partly because i am a military officer. but i would have shown restraint — officer. but i would have shown restraint in _ officer. but i would have shown restraint in a public setting just because — restraint in a public setting just because that is unseemly and inappropriate. if because that is unseemly and inappropriate-— because that is unseemly and inappropriate. if there is anyone who has shown _ inappropriate. if there is anyone who has shown restraint - inappropriate. if there is anyone who has shown restraint over. inappropriate. if there is anyone - who has shown restraint over recent months, it is you. you are no

ordinary man of the street, but a panellist on context. we thank you for your company this evening. lovely to see you too, ayesha. we are back tomorrow. join us for that. good night. hello there. the weather this will look and feel very different through the rest of this week. temperature taking a significant tumble. the cold air is to another scotland, but the northerly wind will drag a cold air southwards across the whole of the country and these are the temperatures on thursday. it may well feel cold in the wind, and with those sort of numbers, we could find sleet and snow falling almost anywhere around the middle part of the week. it is rain that continues through the english channel on tuesday, perhaps still threatening southern counties of england. we should start misty and murky, lots of it will let anson

chan comes through, triggering showers. what weather moving southwards across scotland and metal tent wintry over hills. tuesday colder for all of us. tent wintry over hills. tuesday colderfor all of us. —— tent wintry over hills. tuesday colder for all of us. —— that will turn wintry. really cold air follows the band of wet weather, the weather front moving southwards over scotland, the weather and continue southwards overnight, bringing damp weather southwards, colder air follows behind. this is where the weather front is on wednesday morning, brings rain, sleet and snow perhaps increasingly over high ground in the north of england, north wales. north of that, cold air, sunshine and wintry showers blown in. a cold day again on wednesday, 8 degrees if you are lucky in glasgow, also in norwich. the weather front continues to push slowly southwards, colder air continuing to dig in behind that, so we could have a covering of snow in places across even southern parts of england and wales early on thursday morning will stop before that damp weather moves away, then we are all in the same boat. hail, sleet and

snow, quite a lot of those as well, especially for the eastern side of the ukraine, where temperatures may well be no better than 6 degrees but will feel cold in the wind. the strongest winds are likely to be had eastern and south—eastern parts of england as a weather system clears away and we get high pressure coming in from the atlantic. that tends to head our way but the winds will not be a strong heading into friday. still a cold, frosty start, a few more wintry showers, but not as many. the northern parts of scotland, a cloud over, rain, sleet and snow in the highlands, and temperature still only around 7—9 to end the week. high pressure still sitting to be west of the uk. —— the east of the —— the west of the uk. lots of cloud streaming down from the north—west, that could bring some showers. most showers falling as rain, but only 7 degrees in eastern scotland and the north—east

of england. still in cold air as we head into next week. on the colder side of the upper level winds, the jet stream, the petition of the jet stream may change and we could push in something more milder. towards the south—west high pressure sitting, so around that area of high pressure, we are feeding air from the atlantic in some areas of low pressure could occasionally bring wet and windy weather, mainly to parts of scotland. does it mean for our city forecast? away from northern parts of scotland, maybe not too much falling from the sky, lots of cloud in the flow and temperatures is nearer normal. not quite as cold as we expected to be week. goodbye.

tonight at 10:00pm, it's understood roman abramovich suffered symptoms of a suspected poisoning at peace talks over the war in ukraine earlier this month. sources close to the owner of chelsea football club say he had sore eyes and skin peeling. two ukrainian peace negotiators were also affected. it does appear that there are organophosphates, aka, nerve agents, involved, and we really need to see the medical records. also on the programme ukraine's president says he wants peace without delay and would discuss a neutral status for his country as part of any deal with russia. peace talks are expected to resume tomorrow in istanbul, but for now the war here in ukraine rages on.

the other leaders have said that if they intervened in the war,