this is bbc news, the headlines... the un secretary general has called for an independent litigation into the deaths of civilians in ukraine after russia was accused of war crimes. ukrainianforces russia was accused of war crimes. ukrainian forces have reported finding hundreds of bodies as they have re—entered areas close to the capital kyiv and mass graves in the town of bush. russia denies causing civilian deaths but in one town after another there are testimonies about indiscriminate killing put up the bbc has filmed bodies of civilians in the street that have been shocked. russia says the civilian killings are fake. police in california are searching for multiple suspects they believe carried out a deadly mass shooting

in the state capital. the city because mayor says that more needs to be done to tackle a senseless epidemic of gun violence. —— the city's mayor. hello and welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go and take a look at what is on the show. russia may be planning a cyber attack against us. presidentjoe biden warns that russia may be poised to launch a cyber attack on western companies. but are they ready? as the war in ukraine enters its sixth week and sanctions against russia ratchet up, could moscow strike back on the digital battlefield? i will be discussing all of that with these gentlemen, two major players in the world of cyber security. also on the show, has the war in ukraine triggered the beginning of the end to globalisation? that is the question i am putting to the head of the world trade organization.

wherever you arejoining me from around the world, once again a big hello and warm welcome to the show. you know, the cybersecurity world, it has been braced for some sort of large—scale cyber attack from russia since tensions began building between moscow and kyiv late last year. cyber authorities in the us, the uk and elsewhere, they have been warning notjust about attacks on ukraine, which have already happened, but also so—called spill over where other countries are targeted or where a hack accidentally spreads outside the theatre of conflict. speaking to business leaders recently in the us, president biden warned them to be ready. based on evolving intelligence, russia may be planning a cyber attack against us. as i said, the magnitude of russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential,

and it is coming. it is notjust your interests that are at stake with the potential use of cyber security, it is the national interest at stake, and i would respectfully suggest that the patriotic obligation is for you to invest as much as you can in making sure that — and we will help in any way — that you build up your technological capacity to deal with cyber attacks. so, as president biden said, the russian capability is consequential. so what are we talking about here? russia's military and intelligence establishment has long been honing their skills in cyber warfare. but they also seem to be backed up by a wide range of proxy groups who enjoy something of a symbiotic relationship with the regime. these tend to be groups that carry out ransomware attacks — locking companies or governments out of their own it systems, or stealing data and then holding it to ransom. cyber security research by chain analysis estimates

some 74% of all money made through ransomware attacks in 2021 went to russian—linked hackers. that amounts to some $400 million worth of crypto currency payments going to groups that they say are highly likely to be affiliated with russia. but russia denies this. added together, it has been estimated that global cyber crime caused damages to the tune of $6 trillion in 2021. and these attacks can have far—reaching consequences, often spreading across networks and even borders. the 2017 cyber attack on ukraine is thought to be the most costly in history, with the us, the uk and eu authorities blaming it on a group of russian military hackers. it is thought to have amassed global costs in the region of $10 billion. internationally, global cybercrime costs are expected to grow by 15% per year over the next four years. and numbers like that are certainly focusing the minds, particularly in the us finance industry, with companies increasing their cyber security spend by almost 20%

between 2019 and 2020. so, what is it that the hackers look for and how do they do it? here is one cyber expert whose job it is to test companies�* security. the first thing they do is kind of do this mass scan of the internet, looking for particularly vulnerable computers or vulnerable companies. so, you imagine that a thief is walking down the street, they are looking for a house to break into, they are looking for the house with the open door or open window. what the russians are able to do is scan everywhere. so you imagine they can look at every house, look for any open window in the whole country, or the whole of the us, the whole of the west, and then target them all simultaneously. and if a hacker from anywhere does find an open window, it can be very costly. but so far russia seems to be focused on more conventional warfare and we haven't seen the levels of digital disruption they are capable of. there may be a number of reasons behind this, not least the fierce resistance being put up by the ukrainian people. but there are fears these capabilities may be turned towards the west and its businesses as those sanctions bite.

i have been speaking to steven silberstein, president and ceo of the financial services information sharing and analysis centre. they work on cyber threats across the finance industry. steven, thanks so much forjoining me. steven, let's start with this because you have members in ukraine, how serious is the threat from russia that they are facing right now? well, we do not have any measures of how widespread, we do know that there have been continuous attacks. we have been reading about them. we know of attempts to take over websites and deface websites. we know of distributed denial of service attacks, ddos for short, where volumes of traffic are targeted, huge volumes of traffic are targeted at a website to disrupt its operation and attempts to disrupt the computers that are behind that. but the ukrainians have shown amazing resilience throughout this whole process, both in their physical

resistance and in their cyber resistance, so the sector is operating to some degree. so, is the financial industry more at risk of attempted cyber security breaches from russia as a result of the war in ukraine, more so than other industries do you think? sanctions against russia have no doubt raised the visibility of the financial services sector as a target. but the actual risk is hard to quantify. as a result, we have to be prepared. and as you noted earlier, the sector has been preparing, and has to prepare, as a target for a long time. fs—isac has been working with the sector for over 20 years to deal with these kind of situations. we give the sector a platform where they can share intelligence, rapidly communicate, collaborate on threats, as well as resiliency plans in case something happens. and is the industry... would you say the industry is fully prepared, is it all geared up and ready

for an onslaught? the answer to that one is yes, and it has been from the earliest days, as sanctions were even being considered before they were implemented. again, there is an historic history of being prepared. you know, cyber security, or security in the financial sector is not new. it goes back to the oldest days of physical banks where you worried about the safe, you worried about the guards, you had to protect your customers�* money, you put a wanted poster in the lobby of the bank to try to prevent an attack, and you shared that wanted poster with your other banks so that they could protect themselves. so this concept of sharing, preparation, and having to guard the assets of society has got a long tradition. we are nowjust seeing the conversion of that from the physical to the digital. you say the industry

is ready, but, steven, there will be some asking, can you really stop a nation with the capabilities of a state like russia? russia has attacked the industry before with ddos, it has attacked governments before with solarwinds. is there an absolute guarantee? no. but there is a lot of focus, a lot of resource, a lot of commitment to do that, and you have thousands of people dedicated to working really hard to make sure that we are safe at the end of the day. and let me end on this, steven, what can other sectors, other industries learn from the financial sector? the financial sector has done this as a lifestyle because they must, it is a requirement, basic business requirement. they have been doing it for a long time. i mentioned cyber hygiene, i mentioned effectiveness, a lot of the baseline things that are in place in

the financial sector can be implemented by all industries. i liken this to just adapting basic practices we have in our own life. we lock our door when we go out, we lock our car, we check to see that the oven is off. this is now the digital equivalent of basic safety in a virtual world. steven silberstein, i really appreciate your time, thanks forjoining me. i will talk to you soon. thank you, aaron. pleasure to be here. well, for more on the size of the threat from russia, i also spoke to general keith alexander, founder of the ironnet cyber security and former director of the us national security agency. keith, a real pleasure having you on my show, thank you forjoining me. let's start with this, keith, how big of a threat is russia to western businesses? i think russia, especially in cyber is a big threat to businesses across europe and the united states.

you heard from the administration, our administration that they were concerned about upcoming cyber threats. i think putin has really painted himself into a corner where he has only got a few options. his military is not doing well at all, they did not plan this ukrainian war well, they did not have the logistics, their troops were not trained, it is a total disaster for him. and now they have to cut their losses. they are looking at nowjust parts of eastern ukraine. where is the win for president putin? right now the only thing he can do is cyber, chemical or nuclear. those are the only three things he has got that he can win. he can say getting the donetsk and luhansk areas is a win, but he already had those. and the world and i think russia will see that as a failure. going back to your original question, he is going to attack

the united states and europe, i think in cyber, to try to break up the coalition, make us pay a price. on that point, are you seeing any tell—tale signs that a big attack is coming? no, i have not seen any. i would expect that the administration and intelligence agencies both here and in europe are seeing signs but we have not seen in the private sector, none at all. we did see some in eastern europe, and you may know that ukraine suffered over 3000 attacks by russia, so cyber forces from russia are focused on ukraine in that war over the last four weeks. now i think they are going to shift their focus on europe and the united states. let me ask you this, on a cyber attack front, what would be a worst—case scenario? so many worst—case scenarios.

i think the most probable case is he would go after those areas that have been sanctioned. oil and gas, the finance sector, energy sector, and probably the governments. what can you do to embarrass the countries? what can he do to make them pay a price? already europe is feeling the pain, as is the united states, on higher gas prices, so the population, if you can get the population to feel more pain, then countries are going to start to question whether they support the sanctions at all. he is going to do that, he has got to do something to break up the sanctions. for the uninitiated, let me say on this point, what does that look like? for example, an attack on the energy sector, would it be an attack on the infrastructure that would disrupt the flow of energy, for example? when you look at the energy sector, there are two parts of the attack. the oil and gas, how do

you shut down the pipelines? how do you go after the flow of gas and oil into europe? the answer is go after the control systems. and those systems around it that are attached to the network. destroy them with viruses. same thing for the financial sector, hit them with a wiper virus and make it very difficult to close at the end of the day any financial transactions. that would be a disaster for global financial communities. and in the energy sector, if you can hit the oil and gas and disrupt the flow of oil, like they did with the colonial pipeline, imagine now that you shut down the flow of gas to specific regions in europe. you would have long lines and panic in the streets. we cannot get gas, cannot fuel our cars, that is the worst case. this is where western countries and intelligence agencies have to work together to block those

types of attacks. if we look at the corporate world, do you believe businesses are spending enough on cyber security? when i look at it from my time running us cyber command, the governments are responsible for defending nations. here is the issue — governments cannot see attacks on the commercial sector. yet the governments are the only ones that can counter—fire. so the public and private sector have to work together to create a real—time radar picture of cyber to show when attacks are coming in. europe, nor the united states, they cannot see those today. the consequences are commercial sector and private companies are at risk. what they have to do is work together, create that radar picture, make it real—time, share it with the government so the government can see where they need to counter—fire and block these attacks. that is the future, i think, of cyber security.

that is how we reduce this to a future state where the public and private sector are working together while other nations are going to try to attack us in cyber to accomplish military objectives. i think we are going to see that with what russia is doing. let me end on this, what would your advice be to any business out there watching this at the moment? i think there are a couple of things i would do. all of the issues and capabilities you have in cyber, from end points to firewalls and all of that, you should be doing that. but i think we should take another step. how do you work together at network speed between companies within your sector and your sector with your government? think about that. we have to be willing to share real—time information, as we do radar information for aeroplanes, to protect our cyberspace in the future. we ought to be thinking about that, you ought to be pressing within companies and sectors, and between sectors with the government

to make that happen. i think that is the future of cyber, and that is the best defence we can do. general keith alexander, always a pleasure having you on the show. i will check in with you soon. thanks, good to be here. as the horrific death toll rises in ukraine and western sanctions seek to punish the putin regime, the economic disruption continues to mount. that is being felt particularly in the world of global trade, a system that relies on a certain amount of stability. let's face it, these are not stable times. covid brought about a rethink and exposed the vulnerabilities of a system so dependent on the speedy international movement of goods. suddenly who makes what and where regained importance. the waragain is exchanging priorities. so, what will business need to do in order to adapt? i caught up with the director—general of the world trade organization. a real pleasure having

you on my show, thank you so much for your time. let's start with this, first it was the pandemic, now the war in ukraine. i am just wondering, is global trade being stretched to breaking point? aaron, thank you, good to be with you. there are those who, of course, we oversee that multilateralism and of course within it global trade is really being stretched and tried. i do not know whether it is to breaking point, but definitely multilateralism is being stretched and stressed at the moment. and of course with the pandemic and now with the war in ukraine, we see that the outlook for global trade that we had projected for this year, 4.7% growth, our simulations are showing that with the present war, this could be cut in half. the growth in global

merchandise could go down to about 2.5% because of the impact of the war and related policies. indeed. and as we know, the world trade organization, it was created on the idea that trade would bring prosperity and peace. so, saying that, some will ask, does an aggressor like russia have any place in such a system? well, there are no instruments that we have at the wto for sending a member out or suspending them. it is not an easy thing to do. so that is what i can tell you. we do not have that instrument. some organisations do, we do not. members of the wto have taken those actions which they feel they want to take with respect to the present situation, but beyond that, we do not have an instrument for the question you are asking.

g7 countries are already revoking russia's most favoured nation status, which allows tariffs on russian exports to be increased or even an outright ban. i am wondering, do you think all other countries need to follow suit, to send a message to moscow? let's say this, i want to say that the war in ukraine is a terrible situation and we all feel for the difficulties that the people in ukraine are going through at the moment. and we must do everything possible to try to support the people in ukraine. let me say this, the 164 members of the wto and they are all taking different actions.

there is no one concerted view. there are many members who have applied sanctions and suspended or are planning to suspend recognition status, which means they can charge russia higher tariffs for goods. there are others who have not taken any action. so there are different views. those who have suspended the status for russia, of course normally we would not support this situation in which there is discrimination between members, that is what the wto is about, but it is within a clause that we have, members can do this for security reasons and they have chosen to exercise that right. there is a real danger here, is that right, that russia could be driven into the arms of, for instance, china? away from the west, effectively creating what you just mentioned, this divided east and west trading blocks.

there is a lot of talk about that, aaron, at the moment. of course, it will be normal to say that because of what has happened. notjust the pandemic, we must not forget the impact of the pandemic, and what that meant forjust—in—time production and supply chains, but also now the world. we are bound to see some onshoring and some reshoring, meaning people producing more at home or in friendly countries, bringing some production home. that is a little bit different from complete decoupling. i believe that this is something that the world must avoid. so there is a great deal of talk of that, and it will be very important to look at the consequences. that is why i was saying that our simulations show that just having decoupling into two trading blocs could cause a global output decline of about 5% in the longer term.

i think this is the time not to retreat inwards, but really this is the time to show what multilateralism can do and see trade as an instrument of resilience. one of the big global problems caused by the war in ukraine is that food exports from there and russia have been effectively cut off from global supply chains. what are your biggest worries about that? i am really worried and i have been very vocal about that. i think the first worry, of course, is for the people of ukraine, who are, you know, being displaced, not having enough food to eat, so that is a big worry. the second worry is for poorer countries globally. let's just take my continent of africa, for instance, my continent. you will find that 35 countries import wheat and other grains from russia and ukraine, and 22 from the continent

import fertiliser. these are huge numbers, 35 out of 55 countries, meaning there is a great deal of dependence. work being done by the african development bank now shows that in many countries food prices are rising by 20—50% already. this is huge. so my worry is that we have a food crisis that is brewing and that could become worse. now, at the wto, what we are trying to say and do, and i am very happy to say that many of our members are responding, is to not put in export restrictions and prohibitions, keeping food that you have. again, it is a natural reaction of policymakers to say, look, we have a problem, we must safeguard as much as we can for our population. but there are countries that do have extra in their buffer stocks. what we are really talking about is releasing those onto the world food market

so that prices can come down. when we are talking about inflation as we have, price rises on pretty much everything, unprecedented levels, do you believe that we all need to just get used to paying more for things, for years to come? undoubtedly in the short to medium term, i think that we are going to see these inflationary pressures continue. because of the issues we have just talked about. do you remember that prior to this war we had the pandemic and the supply chain issues related to that? and some of these supply chain issues are structural. it seems to me we have problems with shortage of truck drivers, seafarers, things that are not solved so easily as we all thought they might be. so it could be that in the medium term we continue to see some pains that will lead to more inflationary pressures.

but i do not say we should get used to this because i also believe that there are alternative actions we can take to bring prices down and make food more affordable, food in particular, and medicines more affordable for poorer people. the director—general of the world trade organization, always a pleasure to see you, thank you for your time. i will speak to you soon. thank you. that is it for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. you can get the latest updates on the war on ukraine and the impacts it is having, on the bbc website. you can also follow me on twitter. thank you for watching and i will see you soon.

hello there. looks like being a much milder start to the week. some rain as well. we have a warm sector bringing higher temperatures and a lot of cloud, but we start frost—free in the morning, temperatures from 6 in the south—east of england to a mild 10 celsius in scotland and northern ireland. still some rain moving south across england and wales, which will move away leaving damp, drizzly weather for western hills and coasts, and a lot of cloud. some further rain in northern ireland and western scotland. eastern scotland should be a bit drier and brighter. 0n the whole, cloudy skies on monday, breezy but mild, temperatures typically 12—111. for many parts of the country on tuesday, a milder air mass, and colder across northern scotland.

we have a zone of thick cloud and rain, for a while in northern ireland and northern england, but most of the wet weather is in scotland. the rain marches north across scotland, into the colder air, some snow in highland and grampian. the snow levels might drop on tuesday night. during the day, with the wintry weather, it will feel cold. for the central belt southwards, much milder. with sunshine across england and wales, temperatures up to 15 again. wednesday, an area of low pressure on the scene, sliding these weather fronts eastwards. just north of that, cold air. in the far north of scotland, sleet and snow. most of scotland seeing rain. northern ireland, england and wales with blustery showers blown in on the west to south—westerly winds. and some sunshine. temperatures not quite as high on wednesday. still stubborn cold air

in the far north of scotland. could be more snow overnight into thursday as the low pressure moves away. some damp weather for southern england and wales. colder air digging down from the north. still some uncertainty, but looks like turning colder, with the potential for more sleet and snow in the south. goodbye.

welcome to bbc news — i'm simon pusey — our top stories. growing alarm about alleged russian war crimes in ukraine — the un calls for an independent investigation. it is hard to understand human behaviour like this but what makes it really tragic is that there are so many accounts of it happening where russian soldiers have been and are now in ukraine. russia denies causing civilian deaths — but in one town after another — there are testimonies about indiscriminate killing: the pain is so bad. now i am all alone.