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tv   War in Ukraine  BBC News  April 7, 2022 11:30am-12:01pm BST

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which conditions, either inside russia or outside will make putin stop further aggression and further invasion? what can western and central region of ukraine expect in the nearest future? can people who had to leave their houses from those regions to get back home? is it safe? what is required from us - as a citizen and from our leaders to actually gain the international financial support _ in the post—war time, in the post—war period to rebuild our cities? i what we can expect from our partners around the globe?
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i mean, like, can we expect some air defence systems? can we expect more weapons? how do we make sure that attention is paid at all times, and the situation here and the war in ukraine does not become the thing of yesterday? hello and welcome to your questions answered. those were the voices of young ukrainians in lviv whom we asked to send us questions — we will be puting those questions to our panel, as well as more from vieweres around
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let us look at our panel now. from hertfordshire — emily ferris, royal united services institute. research fellow russia. you are an expert on domestic politics and vladimir putin. to emily's right is head of land vehicles and weapons, at the defence intelligence publisher, he is a former british infantry man and joins us from sussex. below emily we arejoined by joins us from sussex. below emily we are joined by professor lemar her, joins us from sussex. below emily we arejoined by professor lemar her, a barrister and director of a club city firm which specialises in the law of war, previously he has been a lawyer at the united nations and also for the british army. welcome
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lee and to his right professor kataryna lee and to his right professor kata ryna wolczuk lee and to his right professor kataryna wolczuk is from poland, and associate fellow at chatham house specialises in ukrainian and eastern european politics at the university of birmingham from where we joins us now. thank you all. dozens and dozens of questions, let us start with a question from yuri which conditions either inside russia or outside will make putin or outside will make putin stop further aggression and further invasion into ukrainian territory? emily could i come to you we that one, please? emily could i come to you we that one. please?— emily could i come to you we that one, please? thanks very much for that question- _ one, please? thanks very much for that question. so _ one, please? thanks very much for that question. so i _ one, please? thanks very much for that question. so i think _ one, please? thanks very much for that question. so i think obviously | that question. so i think obviously the political negotiations that are ongoing at the moment, things like non—nuclear status for ukraine, potentially non—nato membership,
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conversations about kyiv recognising crimea as russian territory, these are all concrete things that putin can point to, i think as a face saving exercise once the war is over, and he can sort —— sort of frame it that russia has won concessions from ukraine, in my mind one of the most difficult things is that ukraine and russia are discussing the word neutrality, around it is not clear to me they both understand what the other means by that, there isn't even a particular russian word for it, they are using the western word, so what are using the western word, so what are the russian understandings of that word and how does that factor into the political negotiations? i mean just as an example before the war and before it signed this security doctrine with russia, in november 2021, security doctrine with russia, in november202i, belarus security doctrine with russia, in november 2021, belarus was considered a neutral country by moscow, and obviously they have been the launch pad for the offensive on kyiv. that country, even before the war was so deeply linked to russia,
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so i think the problem will be what is russia's interpretation of ukraine's neutrality going to look like i ukraine's neutrality going to look like ., ., _, ., ukraine's neutrality going to look like a, ukraine's neutrality going to look like ., ., ., ., like i want to come to you with a suwlementary _ like i want to come to you with a supplementary question, - like i want to come to you with a supplementary question, let - like i want to come to you with a supplementary question, let us| like i want to come to you with a - supplementary question, let us look at the map of ukraine pre the invasion of february 24th, o, and if we can get that map up we can show you the areas, iner the donetsk region which, well they had russian control of russian backed militias there and if we look at the map now and you can see where the russian forces have moved in, you can see that curtain, just in the east there, and the south of what clearly russia's war aims now are to try and seal off that area, and emily, just another question. this is from joseph. what does putin want from ukraine? ~ ~ , ., ukraine? well, i think there is a coule of ukraine? well, i think there is a coume of ways _ ukraine? well, i think there is a couple of ways i _ ukraine? well, i think there is a couple of ways i would - ukraine? well, i think there is a
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couple of ways i would look - ukraine? well, i think there is a couple of ways i would look at i ukraine? well, i think there is a i couple of ways i would look at this, you are right. putin's goal has changed, it started off being this regime change in kyiv, deposing zelensky and installing a pro moscow government to bring the country closer to moscow's orbit, now given these problems, and the russian military has run—in to, they have been unable to take the major cities and hold them, they have been unable to control the railways so the strategy has moved to focus on eastern donetsk and luhansk so the forces are regrouping, but secondly, sorry. forces are regrouping, but secondly, sor . . , , , ., forces are regrouping, but secondly, sor . ., , ,, ., sorry. please, finish your thought? i was 'ust sorry. please, finish your thought? i wasiust going — sorry. please, finish your thought? i wasiust going to _ sorry. please, finish your thought? i wasjust going to say _ sorry. please, finish your thought? i wasjust going to say we - sorry. please, finish your thought? i wasjust going to say we have - sorry. please, finish your thought? l i wasjust going to say we have seen i was just going to say we have seen for many of the articles that putin has been publishing about the way he sees ukraine and russian interests, he is concerned is about his legacy and the way he will be remembered. he has lofty goals for ukraine. that was that rally _ he has lofty goals for ukraine. that was that rally in _ he has lofty goals for ukraine. that was that rally in fact _ he has lofty goals for ukraine. that was that rally in fact a _ he has lofty goals for ukraine. that was that rally in fact a few weeks ago when he addressed the crowds, some of which had been bussed in.
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andrew, let us hearfrom weronika. she wants to know when it might be safe for her to return to her home. what can ukraine expect in the nearest future can people who had to leave their houses from those regions, to get back home? is it safe? andrew, we have seen the withdrawal of russian forces back to the east, is it is safe for people to go back if they are near to kyiv.- if they are near to kyiv. russian retains the _ if they are near to kyiv. russian retains the ability _ if they are near to kyiv. russian retains the ability to _ if they are near to kyiv. russian retains the ability to strike - if they are near to kyiv. russian retains the ability to strike backj retains the ability to strike back in to ukraine, it still has a significant inventory of missiles and rockets that can be launched at military targets, or indeed any other target it chooses, for supply depots, ukrainian military installations, so, there is nowhere thatis installations, so, there is nowhere that is truly safe within ukraine itself, and as the russian forces
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have been withdrawing, they have been destroying bridge, potentially they have a lot of mined capabilities, so there is no guarantee of safety anywhere, particularly in those central, northern, eastern areas, where ukrainian forces have been advancing, against that withdrawing russian force, so it is very very difficult to say that there is anywhere safe, and it would require ukrainian forces to ensure that there is no legacy munitions been left behind before they could declare those safe. qm. left behind before they could declare those safe. �* , declare those safe. 0k, andrew, 'ust to exlain declare those safe. 0k, andrew, 'ust to explain to — declare those safe. 0k, andrew, 'ust to explain to viewers, the i declare those safe. 0k, andrew, just to explain to viewers, the pictures i to explain to viewers, the pictures are near the donetsk region, these are near the donetsk region, these are ukrainian forces, so very close to the front line now. lee, let us move on to you, this is a question from fiona in london, who asks, if
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war has not been declared and the current situation in ukraine is according to russia, special military operation, can the apparent atrocities be categorised as war crimes? ~ ., ., ., ., crimes? well, good morning, and thank ou crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to _ crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to fiona _ crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to fiona for— crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to fiona for what - crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to fiona for what is - crimes? well, good morning, and thank you to fiona for what is an l thank you to fiona for what is an excellent question. in this day and age there is no need for what was a formal declaration of war, or international humanitarian law or the law of war to apply. the application of international humanitarian law is a factual determination and it turns on the answers to the question, is there an international armed conflict in existence? now here, clearly we have russia one sovereign state has the has unlawfully attacked another, ukraine and ukraine is lawfully defending itself pure suint under articles from the un charter. we have an international armed
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conflict: it does an pleer and serious breaches of law amount to war crimes so in short the answer is yes to that question. qm. war crimes so in short the answer is yes to that question.— yes to that question. 0k, and 'ust a supplementary i yes to that question. 0k, and 'ust a supplementary so i yes to that question. 0k, and 'ust a supplementary so a i yes to that question. 0k, and 'ust a supplementary so a wart yes to that question. 0k, and just a supplementary so a war crime, - yes to that question. 0k, and just a supplementary so a war crime, it i supplementary so a war crime, it covers a range of crimes and a weapon of war can be hunger, rape and other things, can you list them for us? , ~ and other things, can you list them for us? , ,, _, ., , ., for us? yes, i think contrary to what vladimir _ for us? yes, i think contrary to what vladimir putin _ for us? yes, i think contrary to what vladimir putin and - for us? yes, i think contrary to what vladimir putin and some | for us? yes, i think contrary to i what vladimir putin and some of for us? yes, i think contrary to - what vladimir putin and some of his generals may think, war is in fact regulated by law, as i have said thatis regulated by law, as i have said that is nerkt humanitarian law or the law of war and that is made up of geneva and hague convention, the geneva convention of191l9 are rules essentially protecting the victims of war, civilians and the wounded, whereas the hague conventions, some of which date back to the last century are rules o dealing with methods and means of war, how you go about conducting a war, serious or grave breaches of international humanitarian law amount to war
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crimes, which can be prosecuted under international criminal law, and they include, in so far as civilians are concerned, such things as murder, torture, rape, other inhumane treatment, pillage, wanton destruction, hostage taking, forced deportation and much more, in fact everything we appear to be seeing in ukraine, especially in mariupol. in fact those images were from bucha. let us go to professor kataryna wolczuk. this is from ivan. sfrg ets a sfrgets a new security alliance possible and under what conditions? yes this is a very good question and a new security alliance has been
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discussed for several decades and russia mentioned a demand for new security architecture, what we have seenin security architecture, what we have seen in the context of russian aggression, it is consolidation of the existing alliance giving it a new lease of life to protect the member states rather than consider any sort of new arrangement, having said that, some countries in the us -- eu said that, some countries in the us —— eu are looking to provide a greater defence component, and france has been and president macron has been calling for this for a long time. having said that, the nato member states and eu member states such as the baltic countries, and poland, would be very cautious about considering this as a viable option to nato, so for the time being, any new security alliance is unlikely to happen. new security alliance is unlikely to ha- len. ., new security alliance is unlikely to ha en, ., ., ~' , new security alliance is unlikely to
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hauen. ., ., ~' , ., happen. 0k, and keith hawkins from scotland asked _ happen. 0k, and keith hawkins from scotland asked a _ happen. 0k, and keith hawkins from scotland asked a similar _ happen. 0k, and keith hawkins from scotland asked a similar question - scotland asked a similar question and that is puzzle viewer, i remember in 2014 when i was there and the big debate was about ukraine joining the eu or nato, why exactly cannot ukrainejoin nato, or the eu? this is a very good question and it is a fast—moving story. in terms of nato, the story that we see continuity, ukraine was offered membership in, 2008 but it wasn't given what is called map, the membership action plan. this hasn't changed. nato needs unanimity to admit any new member, it has admitted then from the western balkans but through is a line in the sand when it comes to countries which are basically like moldova, especially ukraine and georgia, so nato, there is no prospect for membership at least for the time being, not least because countries like germany and france are very much opposed to it. when it comes to
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the eu, it is a very different organisation, and what we have seen, in the last six weeks, a massive change. ukraine was denied what is known as the membership perspective, but since the invasion, this has changed and now, eu membership is going to be discussed. also despite the objection from germany and france it is very difficult to see how the eu would not recognise ukraine as a candidate state, so things are happening on the eu, the eu front but it will take a long time, but in terms...- time, but in terms... briefly, aren't there _ time, but in terms... briefly, aren't there financial- time, but in terms... briefly, - aren't there financial transparency criteria involved here as well? yes. criteria involved here as well? yes, the are criteria involved here as well? yes, they are and _ criteria involved here as well? yes, they are and it _ criteria involved here as well? yes, they are and it is _ criteria involved here as well? yes, they are and it is unlikely _ criteria involved here as well? lei: they are and it is unlikely that eu will take any short cuts, the rule of lock and democracy are important and the eu is unlikely to take short cuts when it comes to standards because there a lot of countries in
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the waiting room and the eu would not like to fast track ukraine, having said that, there is a lot of recognition with what has been happening in ukraine, that ukraine needs this symbolic acknowledgement of being a european country, but the conditions i don't think they are going to be relaxeded for ukraine. 0k, look, lots more questions to question to. emily, this is from nicola in wales who asked what are the long—term risk of russia becoming a pariah state to the west in in the last cold war china, wasn't such a big power or ally of the soviet yet union, do we risk pushing them together? china's role is lloin to pushing them together? china's role is going to be _ pushing them together? china's role is going to be increasingly _ is going to be increasingly important because russia will have to start reorientating some exports to start reorientating some exports to china if its clients in the west, especially in oil and gas are cut off to them. but i think there has been a lot of discussion about the russia—china relationship and a lot made of the meet between the
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president and the prime minister. we have to ask how deep the relationship go, russia is cautious of the power balance, it doesn't want to be this kind of oil exporter to china, and the ambulance of power is very much tipped in china's favour. if they have got things like similar ideas about authoritarianism and how to run their countries, i don't think putin can count on xi to share his world view. you can see that in the way that china responded to things like the annexation of crimea, they abstained on the un general assembly vote and also, its role in the conflict in ukraine and they have been cautious, used the kremlin language and not calling it a war. they recognised that the war benefits nobody and for china it scuppered a lot their economic plans which included ukraine, and then obviously there is i suppose the domestic problems which is a a lot of the russian media in the far east, in border regions close to
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china has tried to fan some of this anti—chinese sentiment, and the idea that china might be poised to invade parts of the russian far east as parts of the russian far east as part of a historical claim to their lands, you don't see much push back forensic the kremlin in that, so i think we do need to question how close that relationship can go and how much this alliance of convenience rather than anything else. ., , , �* else. that is interesting. andrew, lookinl at else. that is interesting. andrew, looking at the _ else. that is interesting. andrew, looking at the military _ else. that is interesting. andrew, looking at the military options - looking at the military options here, let us look at that man again, to see what russia is in control of at the moment. is it possible, now this is a question from alan stuart, is it possible for ukraine to progress this war to at least recover all the ground, lost from this invasion, because it is complicated, those areas round luhansk and donetsk have been held ijy luhansk and donetsk have been held by russian backed militias since 2014 and the annexation of crimea,
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in that war which has never really come to an end? the in that war which has never really come to an end?— in that war which has never really come to an end? the ukrainian forces and the bulk — come to an end? the ukrainian forces and the bulk of _ come to an end? the ukrainian forces and the bulk of the _ come to an end? the ukrainian forces and the bulk of the ukrainian - come to an end? the ukrainian forces and the bulk of the ukrainian ground l and the bulk of the ukrainian ground forces have been engaged for about eight years fighting in those potentially break away areas, so, the challenge that the ukrainians now have is that if russia puts an effort into the supporting the russian backed separatists in the donbas area, they also still from the the ability to threaten elsewhere across that very very long border, between russia and ukraine, so russia could launch other attacks which will require the ukrainians to put their reserve forces on stand by to move against other russian incursions so it is like squeezing a balloon, where russia chooses to squeeze or ukrainian tries to squeeze, our awe —— other areas
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could break out, so the ukrainian command has got a real challenge to react to what russia does, where it puts its pressure. {lilia react to what russia does, where it puts its pressure.— puts its pressure. 0k, czech republic— puts its pressure. 0k, czech republic have _ puts its pressure. 0k, czech republic have sent - puts its pressure. 0k, czech republic have sent tanks - puts its pressure. 0k, czech| republic have sent tanks into ukraine. they are asking for heavier weaponry as well. let us just listen to christina. i would like you to answer this one as well. this is what she asks.— answer this one as well. this is what she asks. what can we expect from our partners _ what she asks. what can we expect from our partners round _ what she asks. what can we expect from our partners round the - what she asks. what can we expect| from our partners round the globe? what she asks. what can we expect i from our partners round the globe? i mean, like can we expect on air defence systems? can we expect on more weapons? we are really pressed by time, and we are pressed by russian army, so, we need to have more weapons, what is your plan on it, and what you can provide through your side? thank you for your support and thank you for standing by ukraine. andrew. , ., ,
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by ukraine. andrew. , ., ., 11:1 andrew. there is a list of over 200 items that — andrew. there is a list of over 200 items that have _ andrew. there is a list of over 200 items that have been _ andrew. there is a list of over 200 items that have been promised - andrew. there is a list of over 200 items that have been promised or| items that have been promised or delivered already to the ukrainian forces and these vary from what we have seen which has proven effective against russian vehicles and armour but it goes through to the stinger which the earlier versions proved very effective in the hands of the mujahideen against soviet forces during their invasion of afghanistan, so there is a wide variety of equipment provided or will be provided, the star streaked missile provided by the uk which we understand has proven effective in combat, so there is a lot of equipment that is going into ukraine, the t72s, bmp1s that are coming from elsewhere, they are becoming familiar to the ukrainian forces, they could get in, they have no problem in training or learning
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how to use that equipment, they can just get in and use it. {lilia how to use that equipment, they can just get in and use it.— just get in and use it. ok, lee, this is a question _ just get in and use it. ok, lee, this is a question from - just get in and use it. ok, lee, this is a question from sue, - just get in and use it. ok, lee, | this is a question from sue, sue just get in and use it. ok, lee, - this is a question from sue, sue say there's can be little doubt that russia has carried out war crimes against innocent civilians, how and when can action be taken against the perpetrator, can putin be arrested for his part inner the unfolding genocide? for his part inner the unfolding lenocide? ., ~ for his part inner the unfolding genocide?— for his part inner the unfolding lenocide? ., ~' ,, , . for his part inner the unfolding lenocide? ., ,, , . ,, genocide? thank you very much sue. itle alwa s genocide? thank you very much sue. itle always a — genocide? thank you very much sue. itle always a challenge _ genocide? thank you very much sue. itle always a challenge and _ genocide? thank you very much sue. itle always a challenge and it - itle always a challenge and it always takes time to prosecute war crimes, but an international criminaljustice crimes, but an international criminal justice system crimes, but an international criminaljustice system does exist, under which those whoa are accused of war crimes can be tried of them, and if they are convicted they can be imprisoned. that international criminaljustice be imprisoned. that international criminal justice system be imprisoned. that international criminaljustice system is centred on the international criminal court, that was established in 1998 but an international treaty, known as the rome statute. here is the problem. russia is not a member of the international criminal court, it does not accept the jurisdiction of
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the international criminal court. so what does this mean in practise? well, the international criminal court can and is investigating allegation of war crimes, in ukraine, because it has been asked to do so by member states, but if thejudges of the to do so by member states, but if the judges of the international criminal court issue international arrest warrant, well, then, russia will not recognise or execute those warrants in respect of its soldiers in russia, it will not presumably extradite its members of its arm de ed services to the international criminal court in the hague to stand trial, and i have no doubt, that it will not subject its service personnel to courts martial within whatever militaryjustice personnel to courts martial within whatever military justice system exists welcome back its armed forces, so what that means in practise, those who are accused of war crimes, and who remain in russia, certainly while president
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putin or a like minded president remains in power, will probably evade internationaljustice, so i suppose what is the answers to that question? well, we need to do things differently. we can't maintain the status quo, we need toe do things better and quicker and we need to be more innovative t and i really do think this is the time, now, for an integrated co—ordinated and if i i dare seiko heernt international legal response to what is going on, which could centre round the establishment of a new international body, called something like the international legal assistance headquarters for ukraine, which could co—ordinate all the current legal responses that are occurring and if we could establish something like that, then we could facilitate far better the work of the international criminal court, the international criminal court, the international court ofjustice and international court of justice and more, international court ofjustice and more, so i think we can do things but we need to get on it with it.
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sorry to race you because we just have a few minutes left. this is a question from andy, who asks and this is what a lot of people have been asking, what do nato and the rest of the world do, when there are no more sanctions possible? surely putin knows there is only so much the west can do against his country and eventually these options will dry up and then, what happens? it seems that there has been not much thinking about this, the west really relied on the sanction, the diplomacy and military support to be enough to change the state in moscow, we knew theyeesed them in answer keptal way and have not affected what russia is doing on the ground in ukraine. but there are some very important sanction, perhaps knots sanctions but basically stopping energy supplies with russia, at the moment they include for example coal supplies but they just amount russia get
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eabout $4 billion a year from coal supplies to the eu, energy, energy supplies, oiland supplies to the eu, energy, energy supplies, oil and gas generate1 billion a day for russia, so the eu and nato are still funding the war machine in russia, this is on the agenda but it is taking time, it is, we are talking about disrupting 40 years of building energy dependence on russia, but at the moment, for the time being, at least in the open, we cannot see nato considering, despite voices from the various experts, and individual nato member states about basically providing more military support, not only in terms of armoury but establishing for example a partial no—fly zone or everyone basically serving diplomatic relations with russia. thank you very much. we are out of time, many more questions to put do you which we haven't got time for. thank you all very much indeed for
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giving us your expertise, we will leave just now with pictures of bucha and president zelensky walking round that scene of destruction there. i have your fill weekend forecast coming up but let us look at what is happening out there. pressure pulling away eastwards from the uk but strong winds wrapped round that and a batch of showers as well. winds probably touching 40—50mph in gust, especially this morning and they are pushing showers through quickly for some but today fewer showers in southern counties compared with yesterday, more you spending the day dry. fairly cloudy, outbreaks of rain, sleet, hill snow at time, scotland, northern ireland see more sunshine through this afternoon but here there will be a few wintry shower, and for all temperatures dropping through the day it will feel chilly as we go through into the afternoon. that is because winds are switching into
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more northerly direction, skies clearfor more northerly direction, skies clear for the most part. more northerly direction, skies clearfor the most part. a more northerly direction, skies clear for the most part. a few showers dotted round in areas exposed to to that wind, where you have shelter, that means much of the uk it will be a cold night. temperatures dropping below freezing for a fair few. temperatures dropping below freezing for a fairfew. in temperatures dropping below freezing for a fair few. in the south we have this storm diego which will bring damaging winds to france, but for us it will bring rain. especially through friday morning, ah overhang of cloud into southern england south wales, north o that sunny spell, a few showers, most frequent in northern scotland and we have the chilly air so some could be a mixture of sleet and snow, but with winds lighter than today, maybe feeling a little less chilly, those winds as they start tot fall light as we go through into friday evening and the showers is fade, notice the blue colours appearing more widely, a widespread frost to start the weekend and of course with some showers dotted round there could be ice too, the showers continue
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throughout the day, in the far north of scotland, elsewhere, one or two popping up into the afternoon, vast majority, saturday, dry, sunny spells, and temperatures starting to just lift up a bit as winds fall lighter, they will lift further as we go through into sunday, high pressure to begin with, into sunday, as this weather system approaches winds go more southerly, we will have more cloud with outbreaks of rain in ireland especially. the further east hazy sunshine throughout the day and temperatures into the mid teen, could get milder next week. week. see you soon.
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this is bbc news. the headlines. the government puts nuclear power at the heart of its new energy strategy — it wants eight new reactors approved by the end of the decade. it wants eight new reactors approved this it wants eight new reactors approved is about tackl m ista kes this is about tackling some of the mistakes of the past and making sure we are set well for the future and no longer subject, never again subject to the vagaries of the global oil and gas price. there's a boost for offshore wind energy too, but critics say the government's plan fails to tackle the key issues the government has rejected moving on a sprint on key things that would have made the difference. 0nshore wind, solar and energy efficiency.
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a plea for military help from the ukrainians,

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