showery outbreaks of rain, again some of it heavy, possibly even thundery, but if you dodged those showers and you keep that sunshine, particularly across east anglia and south—east england, once again we could see 19, possibly 20 degrees. so, the rain, the dividing line between that slightly colder air sitting in the far north of scotland but it will head in your direction. and you can see, as we head towards the easter weekend, once that rain eases away, it will be drier and relatively milder in comparison to the last few days.

this is bbc news. the headlines: imran khan has been removed as prime minister of pakistan after losing a confidence vote. mr khan said he wouldn't recognise a new opposition government, after claiming that there was a us—led conspiracy to remove him. an assembly will meet on monday

to choose a new leader. the british prime minister, borisjohnson has pledged more support for ukraine after holding face to face talks with president zelensky in kyiv. mrjohnson praised what he called the "invincible heroism" of the ukrainian people. mr zelensky urged other western allies to intensify the pressure on moscow. campaigning has ended in the first round of france's presidential election. president emmanuel macron�*s lead over his main challenger, the far—right leader marine le pen has fallen dramatically in recent weeks. the polls are due to open in a few hours time// analysts expect many voters to boycott the election. now on bbc news: talking business. hello, everybody, a very warm welcome to talking business weekly, with me, aaron heslehurst. let's have a look at what's on the show. the great russian reformation.

as sanctions keep growing, i'm going to ask what impact they are having on living standards under putin's regime. with prices of everything, from sugar to medicine, on the rise, i'm going to speak to a former russian deputy energy minister turned opposition politician, who says that we have never seen such a big cut off of such a major economy in the history of globalisation. and the consequences will be profound. after more than 20 years in power, just how much does president putin worry about the impact his decisions are having on livelihoods across that vast nation? his former chief economic adviser will give me an insight into the thinking inside the kremlin. also on the show, ukraine has been cut off in a different way — its skies have been closed to all air traffic since russia's invasion began. this top executive from the ukrainian airline, skyup, will tell me just what that has meant for the business.

where ever you arejoining me from, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. russia's invasion of ukraine is having a major impact on the global economy, but of course it is also having an impact within russia itself. before the war russia was closely connected to the rest of the world, exports accounted for nearly a third of its economy. that's because russia is a major exporter of raw materials, from oil and gas, to weed and sunflower oil. now in russia there is growing economic turbulence. russia's path of economic growth has been bumpy since the fall of the soviet union more than 30 years ago. recent economic dips coincide with the invasion of crimea in 2014 and the coronavirus pandemic. amid widespread sanctions,

a recent survey by russia's own a central bank forecasts that the economy will shrink by 8% this year, other estimates put that number as high as 15% to stop that could translate to a major drop in living standards for russia's population. the unemployment rate could nearly double to nearly 7.8% this year, because many companies have policy trading. life is already getting more expensive. at the end of march, the economy ministry said prices were increasing at a yearly rate of almost 16%. cars and electronics have seen some of the biggest rises. for years, the russian economy has brought in billions of dollars by selling its oil and gas to other countries. but as they try to move away from all of that, president putin remains defiant. translation: the collective west is not going to abandon j

the policy of economic pressure on russia. we need to strive to maximise the utilisation of our enterprises to create new abilities and increase the global competitive nests of russia as a whole. at the same time, the key economic factor of the economy for i should be the preservation and creation ofjobs, the reduction of poverty, the improvement of the quality of life for people, and the availability of goods and services. let's get a sense of the impact inside russia. here is some of the reporting steve rosenberg has been doing since the war in ukraine began at the end of february. once, moscow glistened with aspiration to be a global financial centre, an economic giant. after the kremlin�*s invasion of ukraine, the world has turned its back on russia. russians are feeling it. svetlana's advertising agency

is already losing clients. it isjust like a nightmare for me, really. i can't believe that this is really happening. we don't want to go back there, to the iron curtain. we don't want to be isolated from the society. me personally and everybody who i know, we don't want this. life is changing for russians. sanctions are making their country look very different. at mcdonald's, final orders. it is suspending russia in —— business in russia, over what it calls the needless human suffering unfolding in ukraine to stop this customer believes that the russian offensive is destroying russia's future. it is very sad. it is notjust mcdonald's closing, all western - businesses are shutting down. everyone who can is leaving.

it is a symbol- of the new times. we will be left isolated. i was actually in the queue here 30 —— 32 years ago when mcdonald's first opened. for muscovites, this place was a symbol of russia are opening up to the world, a symbol of easter embracing west. but it feels now that is all gone, and instead russia is increasingly isolated. international brands are vanishing from moscow's shopping centres. but russians have less money to spend here anyway. sanctions have because the value of the rouble to plunge. ibut those who back moscow's onslaught in ukraine, made of them claim they couldn't care less about global corporations disappearing from the russian market. but when this conflict does end, my fear will never be the same. then vladimir putin came to power in which a than 20

years ago he promised russian security and stability. today his arm is suffering losses in ukraine. the economy here are suffering from sanctions, and russia is facing growing international isolation. that was our russia editor, steve rosenberg. let's pick up on that part of the russian economy suffering from all the sanctions. one man who has a good sense of what that means is vladimir me a lot. he was deputy men energy minister into visiting to. he is now an opposition politician. he fled last year before campaigning against vladimir putin. thank you forjoining me on my show. there are growing reports that the water in ukraine has led to shortages of basic items in russia, such as sugar, which of course is widely used in that country. no need to make vodka, for example. its price has gone up by more than 45%.

how much is that been notice by ordinary russians and who do they blame? it has been noticed. however, it isjust the beginning of a stop i think the basic shortages we have are mostly a result of consumer panic. when there were reports yet that might be empty shelves in stores, theyjust rushed and made excessive purchases of daily products wassup however, the worst is yet to come. because the basic supply chains are disrupted, logistics are disrupted. russian producers of food and other daily products are basically very dependent on intermediary goods, components, technologies, whatever. i would say that what we have seen so far is just the very early stage. there is more to come. however they raised the alarm

very much, we are not yet on the territory to attribute blame specifically to somebody. this is very alarming, we haven't seen anything like it in 30 years. what do the consumers do? basically, what happens if and when they can't afford their basic extensions? i think we'll see some real shortages, we will see sharper price rises in april, may, june and further down the summer. which means that russians will have too seriously adjust their consumer basket, basic supplies, and living standards also will seriously deteriorate. in five of the last eight years, the real incomes of russian people have fallen. in 2020, the average russian had around 11% less to spend than they did in 2013. i'm wondering, how much if thread is that you vladimir putin?

that is a significant threat. before the invasion of ukraine, you probably saw due to an�*s approval ratings were historically low. —— putin mac's approval ratings. that is something he has never experienced in his whole presidential secure. but again the processes in russia are really slow. it takes people time to realise there is a connection between the deterioration of their living standards and government policies. the moscow—based think tank, the centre for strategic research, says 2 millionjobs are under threat as companies pull out. i'm wondering, are russian workers concerned about their jobs? many people are concerned about losing theirjobs wassup i think it is the majority do not realise the severity of the economic situation, and they don't realise they might lose their jobs very quickly. i think the loss of 2 millionjobs isjust a very mild estimate,

to see the very least. for instance, when i spoke about destruction of the man for more expensive goods, that is bad news for a lot of businesses working in russia. what i said essentially, is that people will stop going to fitness clubs, catholics or restaurants. theyjust eat basic foods at home. this is what we saw seven, eight years ago when a similar price rises are broke out. so, small businesses out on the verge of destruction. even a survey of russia's own central bank, if forecasted russia shrinking by 8% this year. 0ther estimates are at nearly double that. what does that mean you for your country? again, these estimates are preliminary and mild, we might find yourself in worse territory. i also think it is very hard to make these comparisons

with the absence of a real rouble exchange rate. we will be in the territory of a double—digit launch. it is actually much worse than the 90s, this will have an impact on the structural integrity of putin's system, also on the opinion of russian elites. they are the ones who will suffer terribly from the situation. they basically have nowhere else to go, there is no prospect to grow and develop. they are also being cut off from the international community, so that will be a very severe blow, something unseen even in the 80s and the 90s. as we know, much of the world is doing what i can to wean itself off russian energy, basically refusing to buy russian oil and gas. as a former deputy energy minister, can you explain to us just how important that money is to the russian economy? that is extremely important.

just the cash flows from the export of natural gas to europe is about 400 million euros a day. that is like every two and a half days, i billion euros comes into putin's pockets. that is extremely helpful for putin to continue to keep your system running, to continue to finance the war. with the extreme rise of energy prices of late, that also miss the flow of hard currency to putin's pockets. this is why all as at the moment our focus on the potential oil and gas embargo by the european union. if they would cut off this currency flow, that would be a very severe blow to thank mike and his policies. however, while cash continues to arrive on russia's accounts, that is a reassuring factor for putin and his elites,

that they will continue to finance the war, to resupply the army, to launch another offensive in donbas, whatever. so this issue of energy embargo is vital. 0nce his energy flow is disrupted, putin will have to rethink its policy because he will not have resources to finance further aggression. on that note, vladimir milov, i really appreciate your time. thank you forjoining me, good luck with everything. let's lay with the changes to russia's economy. what do they mean inside the kremlin? just how much to the influence president putin thinking? from 2000—2005 andrey illarionov was present putin's chief economic adviser. he nowjoins me from washington. in 2015, president putin famously said our sovereignty is not up for sale,

and applying a financial cost will not prevent him from claiming territory that he considers to be his. how much does this dominate his thinking. for the last 40 days or so, especially during the latest stage of president putin's war against ukraine, we have learned for putin his imperial ambitions are much more important than anything else, including the livelihood of the russian population, the national situation in the country. even the financial state of his government. over the past few years, president putin has repeatedly tried to raise spending on social welfare. he said in 2019, there are too many poor people, we should focus our attention on fighting this phenomenon. does he regard us as important to maintain his grip on power,

or is itjust words he feels he needs to say? we cannot exclude, initially come in at the first years in office he was very serious about keeping the living standards of the population. but it looks like that is not the goal any more with him. since he has embarked on this imperial, the problem of imperial conquerors. it looks like he is completely not interested in economics, economic policy, or in living standards of the russian population was up around 20 million russians live below the poverty line.

in 2018, present putin promised to have that number by 202a. does all this war and what it is costing, or that prevent that? in terms of those numbers, we may see the number of those people doubling, no bead tripling. the resources on the russian state and business to sustain the population is actually pretty limited. has there been too much of a focus on perceived external threats over internal problems? and has it always been that way for him? all this talk of external threats are absolutely baseless. this is completely baseless. in the whole world, nobody threatens russia today. russia is a big country, it has some substantial economic potential, it is the largest country in the world by territory. it is a pretty big country by population. it has nuclear weapons. nobody in the world is threatening russia without sovereignty,

with its territorial integrity. where does the oil and gas fit into president putin thinking? i'm wondering, does he have any concern that pushing away customers will simply undermine his other ambitions? looks as though he does not take seriously all the discussions in the western countries that the west could cut off itself from the russian oil and gas. even in these first weeks of his invasion against ukraine, european countries keep consuming and keep on importing russian oil and gas. but i would say that if the western countries without an ounce and tried to implement real embargo on oil and gas exports from russia.

i would bet that probably within months, russian military operation in ukraine probably will be stopped. so that is why it is one of the very effective instruments are still in the position of western countries. what will it need or take for russia to be reintegrated into the global economy? is it going to take a new president? is absolutely impossible to have any positive future for russia with

the current political regime. there is no way the country might be integrated back into international relations, in the world economy. even in normal communications with the rest of the world. it will definitely happen sooner or later, there is no other way. thank you for sharing your insights, andrey illarionov. thank you forjoining me. before the war in ukraine, is home grown air lying, skyup, was perhaps best known for its radical decision to abandon skirts and high heels for the uniform for female flight attendants. before only starting flying four years ago, it was hoping to carry 3.5 million passengers this year as ukrainians�* appetite for international travel sword. i caught up with the airline's chief commercial officer. thank you so much forjoining me, i am sorry it is under these circumstances. given the immense dangers of flying anywhere with in ukrainian airspace, are you operating any services at all at the moment? thank you for the

opportunity to be here. in the meantime, a special order it was announced that aircraft should be grounded immediately on february 24. after this order was issued,... will still have operational activities within poland, romania and moldova. apart from one aircraft, you moved all of your fleet out of ukraine? yes, exactly. we move them out of ukraine due to a lesser insurance and our own efforts. we know that skyup planes have been using evacuations. can you tell us how many people you have managed to carry? and where have you been flying from and to?

we have carried around 4000 people already, all of them are refugees. we are really grateful to aviation authorities of poland, romania and moldova because they treat us like our second motherland. in different cities, all foreign imports are ready to help. from romania, again, all airports are here. namely, people go to... there are now in the process of initiation with uk and sweden. for skyup, do you know how much infrastructure has been damaged in these russian attacks? whether it is aircraft

themselves or airports. for sure, we know, but for confidential reasons we don't want to provide any details. we canjust underline the airports are almost destroyed or significantly damaged. immediately after the war, it would be finished, it will be done a special audit for our airfields, for our equipment, for airport infrastructure. honestly speaking, one of the main issues for us now is who will pay for repairing? aviation and everything costs a fortune. really, we need a plan for aviation in ukraine in order to start operations at the day after the war. skyup is relatively new to providing a cargo service. i believe you only started operating at this time last year. when at the war is over, do you expect the cargo side of your business to increase significantly given the restocking and rebuilding efforts that are going to be needed in your country?

we had a started work with cargo during covid times. we had flights from china to ukraine with masks, medicines. now we modify due to war efforts to cargo modification. when the water stops for sure... first of all, we will continue with our cargo service. we made a decision we would increase our fleet because we have huge experience in this. skyup has appealed to other airlines to make use of your aircraft and your staff. is that correct and why have you done that? the second hour aircraft, honestly speaking, is in the same position. we have support from the lessor is, is really important for us. we don't have to return aircraft about some of them may be returned. for this reason, if you have some three equipment. the second hour aircraft, honestly speaking, is in the same position.

we have support from the lessor is, is really important for us. we don't have to return aircraft about some of them may be returned. for this reason, if you have some three equipment. these are bound during summer is really high in aviation. we are ready to take some jobs from other airlines. we have many requests from around the world. on that positive note, i really appreciate your time. stay safe, good luck with everything and i would love to talk to you soon. that is all from this week's show, i hope you have enjoyed it. don't forget, you can keep up to date on the war in ukraine and how it is impacting the global economy on the bbc website and also on the smartphone app. thanks for watching, i'll see you soon, bye—bye.

hello there. clear skies are allowing those temperatures to fall away quite sharply as we speak. it means a frosty start to sunday morning. glorious with some early sunshine but gradually clouding over as the day continues. so, the best of the sunshine certainly will be out to the east. we'll see that sunshine turning increasingly hazy from the west and outbreaks of light rain gradually moving into northern ireland by the end of the afternoon. northern ireland, england, and wales seeing temperatures of around ten to 13 degrees, a little bit cooler once again into the north—east of scotland along with the northern isles. now, as we move into monday, all eyes are focused on this area of low pressure, it is going to bring

outbreaks of rain, some of it heavy, from the west. the isobars are squeezing together, the winds strengthening but at least the winds are coming from the south—easterly direction, a warmer source. so, a band of rain, some of it heavy, possibly thundery, moving its way across the west and steadily northwards as we go through the day. top temperatures in the sunshine, however, 17 celsius, a little milder.

this is bbc news ? welcome if you re watching here in the uk or around the globe. i m lucy grey. our top stories... imran khan is removed as prime minister of pakistan after losing a vote of confidence in parliament. armoured vehicles and new missiles — borisjohnson pledges more british support for ukraine after talks with president zelensky in kyiv. there is a huge amount to do to make sure that ukraine is successful, that ukraine wins and that putin must fail. people in luhansk are being urged to flee, following the attack on a railway station in kramatorsk — where at least 50 people were killed. translation: when you see our future being killed, _ the future of ukraine, you can't control your|

emotions, you understand it's genocide and they are killing.