this is bbc news, we will have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour as newsday continues, straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk, i am stephen sackur. russia �*s invasion of ukraine and he have �*s defiant response will have a long—term impact on geopolitics far beyond europe �*s eastern flank. the west insists putin

must fail, but this century �*s rising power, china, offers mr putin friendship without limits. could be ukrainian invasion foreshadow an effort by beijing to eliminate the thorn in its side, namely, taiwan. my guest is type a representative to the eu ming—yen tsai. could what starts in ukraine and in taiwan? ming—yen tsai in brussels, welcome to hardtalk. my pleasure _ welcome to hardtalk. my pleasure to _ welcome to hardtalk. my pleasure to be _ welcome to hardtalk. m pleasure to be here with welcome to hardtalk. mg pleasure to be here with you. welcome to hardtalk. my - pleasure to be here with you. a pleasure to be here with you. a pleasure to be here with you. a pleasure to have you on the

showstopper you sit there in brazil two brussels, you are the representative of type a as it is put, to the european union, ijust wonder, from your position, what impact has russia �*s invasion of ukraine had on your homeland? l russia 's invasion of ukraine had on your homeland? i think our whole _ had on your homeland? i think our whole community - had on your homeland? i think our whole community is - had on your homeland? i think. our whole community is watching the situation in ukraine closely, and we believe the impact of the ukraine situation will be far—reaching, so i think the first situation need to keep watching will be about geopolitical things, europe will come out with a new map, so this is a wake—up call to our global community, because it shows how easily authoritarian countries can use force to challenge liberal base order and international borders, so it's very important for our democratic community to hold a line and then brace for the cost of russia �*s invasion,

otherwise other authoritarian countries around the world such as trainable copy that type of mantle, and expanded into our neighbourhood. let mantle, and expanded into our neighbourhood.— mantle, and expanded into our neighbourhood. let me stop you there. neighbourhood. let me stop you there- you _ neighbourhood. let me stop you there. you do _ neighbourhood. let me stop you there. you do feel— neighbourhood. let me stop you there. you do feel that - there. you do feel that something has happened with invasion of ukraine has repercussions in your region, and in particular you see it as some sort of values trier, where the rule of law, international law and democracy are somehow at stake in a much broader sense?— broader sense? yes, that's correct — broader sense? yes, that's correct. this _ broader sense? yes, that's correct. this time, - broader sense? yes, that's correct. this time, russia i broader sense? yes, that's | correct. this time, russia is using its pressure to challenge the international border, and in our region, china has very strong intentions to challenge the liberal base order, so we are concerned that trainable copy that kind of model and follow russian steps to do the same thing to the neighbourhood, and in the past few years china has intensified its military activity in the

facility of taiwan, and china keep sending its military aircraft to intrude into the aero defence zone of taiwan, by showing its military muscles. we will get to the military situation on the ground and in the taiwan straits and just a moment butjust to stick the taiwan straits and just a moment but just to stick with your notion of this being about international rules, the international rules, the international order, the implication of what you are saying is that there is some direct parallel between russia and ukraine, and then china and taiwan, but of course there is one fundamental difference, the international community recognises and has long recognised the sovereignty of ukraine as an independent nationstate. the international community does not recognise today taiwan �*s status as an independent nationstate, indeed the vast majority of countries around the world adhere to the one china policy and the notion

that your status is far short of being an independent nation. you are right, but more and more countries around the world, they are starting to look at taiwan from the perspective of one china policy, as you mentioned but the one china policy has some differences compared to china �*s proposalfor differences compared to china �*s proposal for the one china principal because one china policy recognises that the people's republic is the only legal government in china, but does not recognise that taiwan is part of the people �*s republic so we hope we can continue to use that kind of partnership to deepen the partnership to deepen the partnership with our friends around the world. if you think the international order and international rules are at stake, how disappointed were you that when it came to that crucial early vote at the united nations demanding a

withdrawal of russian forces from all ukrainian territory, some of the biggest, most influential countries in the world chose to abstain and are not thinking just of china itself, but india, pakistan, south africa, interview in taiwan want to convince yourselves that the international community does respect rules and does value democracy, may that vote was a bit of a disappointment? yes, i understand your concerns but i think what we are witnessing is a kind of competition between two different groups, one is the democracy and the other is autocracy, and after russia �*s invasion of ukraine, the competition between these two groups will be to new high in the future, and we are concerned that russia and china has announced that they will deepen their strategic partnership with the tire, and as you mentioned earlier, their partnership will have no boundaries, no limits, so that

is something that we witness on the side of the autocracy, and on the other side... ll the side of the autocracy, and on the other side. . ._ on the other side... if that concerns _ on the other side... if that concerns you, _ on the other side... if that concerns you, you - on the other side... if that concerns you, you see - on the other side... if that concerns you, you see the | concerns you, you see the strength and depth of the friendship between russia and china, do you believe that what has happened in the last month and a half has made more likely and a half has made more likely a chinese military intervention in your homeland, in taiwan? yes, actually, we are on high alert, based on military activity around taiwan by china, and the first day of russia �*s invasion, there were ten sorties of military aircraft to intrude into taiwan �*s aerial zone, and we continue to watch the situation and we are concerned that trainable show with military muscle to taiwan and the purpose is to use military intimidation against the taiwan �*s people and government, to say that

china has militarily banded against taiwan and will use its military control in the taiwan strait to get used to the battlefield in the taiwan strait. l battlefield in the taiwan strait. ., ., battlefield in the taiwan strait. . ., , ., battlefield in the taiwan strait. ., . . strait. i hear what you are saying. — strait. i hear what you are saying. and _ strait. i hear what you are saying, and no _ strait. i hear what you are saying, and no doubt- saying, and no doubt there are a number of sorties by the chinese air force over taiwan , s chinese air force over taiwan �*s airspace, and there is something going on, and one can also say i guess that the focus of international tension is very much on ukraine right now which beijing may well be aware of. one us congress would put it like this just the other day, mike gallagher, saying all of this evidence to suggest that we are right now in the window of maximum danger taiwan. is that the way that you see it?— you see it? yes, i think this time we _ you see it? yes, i think this time we need _ you see it? yes, i think this time we need to _ you see it? yes, i think this time we need to hold - you see it? yes, i think this time we need to hold a - you see it? yes, i think thisl time we need to hold a spirit of solidarity and unity to support ukraine and then raise

the cost russia �*s invasion and i believe china is watching the situation closely because there will be two major concerns of the chinese side, number one is how likely russia can conquer ukraine without too much advice, and what the economic impact will be of global mobilisation against russia. if russia can conquer ukraine and achieve its political and military objective without paying to do much price, then china made all of those steps, and if russia has to pay a lot for the invasion, that china has to think twice, because this is a very important political era in year 4 china, the party will organises 20 of national congress, and xi jingping will extend his reign for another five jingping will extend his reign for anotherfive years, jingping will extend his reign for another five years, maybe for another five years, maybe for the rest of his life, so he will be very cautious to do the calculation before waging a war in a theatre of the taiwan strait against taiwan,. xi

jinguiug strait against taiwan,. xi jingping may well be cautious, if he believes that taiwan can put up as fierce and effective resistance to the might of the chinese military as ukraine has already put up in the face of the might of the russian military, so the question to you if i may say so, as a representative of your country, is do you believe, honestly, that taiwan is in a position right now to match ukraine and put up that level of effective military resistance?- military resistance? yes, i think we — military resistance? yes, i think we have _ military resistance? yes, i think we have been - military resistance? yes, i. think we have been investing military resistance? yes, i- think we have been investing so many resources to improve our defence capacity, and taiwan does not want to enter into a kind of arms race with china, which is not in taiwan �*s interest because china is much bigger than taiwan in terms of military resources and manpower, so what we want to do is improve our defence

capacity, particularly focus on the defence motion of tying our taiwan �*s capacity to defend against china �*s and potential invasion, and that goes to the modernisation of the taiwanese defence force, and our facilities, so we continue to build taiwan into a strong and potent military force to make china think twice before going too far. ., , , . china think twice before going too far. . , , . ., ~ ., too far. one aspect of ukraine 's resistance _ too far. one aspect of ukraine 's resistance which _ too far. one aspect of ukraine 's resistance which has - too far. one aspect of ukraine 's resistance which has been l �*s resistance which has been very striking is the degree of coherence in their society, from leadership, president zelenskyy defending his nation, in that all ukrainian has united. you think there is that same level of unity at the same quality of leadership in taiwan?—

quality of leadership in taiwan? , ~ taiwan? yes, i think when we talk about _ taiwan? yes, i think when we talk about the _ taiwan? yes, i think when we talk about the situation - taiwan? yes, i think when we talk about the situation in - talk about the situation in taiwan, one thing i want to share with you is that taiwan is a democracy, we don't want to become part of authoritarian china, particularly after hong kong �*s situation, no—one in taiwan has any interest in the proposal for one country two systems, so if china decides to move towards invasion of taiwan, we will take the steps we need to defend our democracy. the endeavour by the ukrainian people and the government, that is how to build a very resilient civilian society against an invasion, and they will become a very hot issue, that is how to build a very strong system to mobilise our reserve forces and to promote the connection between

our civilian society and our defence department, so that will become a very important issue in the parliament �*s debated taiwan at this point. that's very interesting. how worried are you by the leverage that you can weapons gives china, just as we can see in a certain sense the leverage that it has given vladimir putin, because when nato has shied away from any talk of imposing away from any talk of imposing a no—fly zone or indeed sending jet fighters to the ukrainian military, they have cited the danger of escalation, danger of escalating with russia, with a nuclear power which appears to be ready at some point to use nuclear weapons as part of its battlefield strategy. the very same could be said of china, and that gives china a leverage which may come back to haunt taiwan. ., which may come back to haunt taiwan. . , , taiwan. that may be very militant _ taiwan. that may be very militant - _ taiwan. that may be very militant - many - taiwan. that may be very militant - many military i militant — many military options in the hands of chinese leaders, but i won't prepare

for all of those scenarios in our best way.— our best way. how can you prepare — our best way. how can you prepare for _ our best way. how can you prepare for a _ our best way. how can you prepare for a scenario - our best way. how can you prepare for a scenario in i our best way. how can you - prepare for a scenario in which you don't have nuclear china doesn't hold world knows that? when we are about to declare war, we could mobilise all kinds of policies, resources and tools, i would like to share with you a very good idea, proposed by our american colleagues, integrated deterrence, which means that with democratic countries we can take some collective... and make use of all kinds of resources of policy instruments to hold ground and then raise the cost for those countries already regent powers that intends to challenge the world —based order and international borders. if we could do so that we will be able to push china to think twice before going too far, so that is our object of deterrence.

far, so that is our ob'ect of deterrence.�* far, so that is our ob'ect of deterrence. we have talked about different _ deterrence. we have talked about different aspects - deterrence. we have talked about different aspects of l deterrence. we have talked l about different aspects of the military strategising, let's not talk about economics and leveraged, again, what we have seenin leveraged, again, what we have seen in russia is the west, pretty united imposing sanctions but they have been limited because of the reliance of europe in particular on russian gas. the difficulties are even greater when it comes to assessing leverage in any future potential conflicts involving china and taiwan, because china is so interwoven into the world economy, so powerful in the world economy, particularly in europe. you see it as a representative of the type a in the eu. do you know howjust reliance germany is with the trade of china, you know that china �*s melton road initiative now reaches into hungary, italy, greece, a host

of european union member states, china has effectively ensured that the world can't afford to isolates china. l afford to isolates china. i think compared to russia, china is a much bigger economic power in the international arena, and we may also need to look at this issue from a different angle, and that is taiwan is also a powerhouse of semiconductors, and if wejust look at those, taiwan accounts for about 90% of the global production, so that is the best chips. i production, so that is the best chis. ~' ., , production, so that is the best chis. ~ ., , ., ., chips. i know very well from a little bit of — chips. i know very well from a little bit of research _ chips. i know very well from a little bit of research that - chips. i know very well from a little bit of research that the i little bit of research that the taiwanese dominance of the semiconductor chip market is extraordinary, you have the power whether it be from apple iphones do all of the computerisation of automobiles, you have the power to shut down

vast swathes of electronic industry across the world. are you telling me that you are now prepared to use that sort of power to become if you like a semiconductor superpower in the world? i semiconductor superpower in the world? ., semiconductor superpower in the world? . ., world? i am saying that if china invades _ world? i am saying that if china invades taiwan, - world? i am saying that if. china invades taiwan, there will cause a lot of problems with the shortage of taiwan supplies of those semiconductors and products, of which china would suffer badly, so taiwan also has some leverage in our hands, and the most important thing is that we need to camera as i mentioned earlier, so that kind of solidarity between our like—minded friends of the democratic society, and that democratic society, and that democratic invaders of the cost that would be very high if they go too far. that would be very high if they go too far-— go too far. sometime in these have talked — go too far. sometime in these have talked about _ go too far. sometime in these have talked about a _ go too far. sometime in these have talked about a silicon - have talked about a silicon shield that protects taiwan in

reality from chinese aggression. do you really believe that?— aggression. do you really believe that? �* ,, ., believe that? after the russian invasion of— believe that? after the russian invasion of ukraine _ believe that? after the russian invasion of ukraine it _ believe that? after the russian invasion of ukraine it would - believe that? after the russian invasion of ukraine it would be| invasion of ukraine it would be very important for our global community particularly our democratic society to think about how to shape supply chain security for many items, such as energy, food, semiconductors or other key sectors of. without doing so, i'm afraid the question you mentioned earlier, if wejust the question you mentioned earlier, if we just depend on china �*s market, they may increase china �*s leverage and make china more confidently use its force to achieve its critical objectives in the future. critical ob'ectives in the future. �* critical ob'ectives in the future. ., _ ., future. i'm fascinated by what ou are future. i'm fascinated by what you are saying _ future. i'm fascinated by what you are saying in _ future. i'm fascinated by what you are saying in the - future. i'm fascinated by what you are saying in the quiet - future. i'm fascinated by what | you are saying in the quiet way in which you are protecting — projecting taiwanese power but let's be real and look at brussels where you set. one country in the european union, lithuania has gone much further than their eu fellow members and they have allowed taiwan to

open and office under the label of taiwan in their country, in essence an embassy of taiwan. china has been infuriated by that and as a result has cut trade ties with lithuania, tried to isolate lithuania and lithuania is paying a price and indeed is so upset that it's trying to counteract toner �*s measures at the world trade organisation by the message of that spat between giants china antonio the media is that many europeans are going to think very hard before they confront china in that way. we understand _ china in that way. we understand your - china in that way. - understand your concerns and leather when you is a country that will always withstand that kind of pressure from foreign hostile states, and this time, deepened cooperation with taiwan and economic... because this time china went further to impose secondary sanctions against that the media, which

is to push european countries or companies not to use their components or steel parts from lithuania, otherwise they cannot sell their products to china. this kind of action not only does damages to the economic situation of lithuania butjeopardises economic situation of lithuania but jeopardises the economic situation of lithuania butjeopardises the eu �*s important principle of single market integration, and the process of suffering economic coercion from china, there is also political support from the european commission and consul, and for that reason, we just mentioned, the eu would like to submit the lithuania case to the wto for the further concept of consultation in support of lithuania. so while i am saying that we will continue to deepen our cooperation with the european commission, because taiwan has been isolated from the international community, so we treasure that kind of

cooperation between the commission, and the european union has been operating with normative power in the world, so we use our cooperation with the european union to reach out to many important issues, like issues of common concerns. that issues of common concerns. that is our issues of common concerns. that is yourjob _ issues of common concerns. that is yourjob as _ issues of common concerns. that is yourjob as the _ issues of common concerns. that is yourjob as the diplomatic representative type a to the eu, that is yourjob, but you also come with a lot of experience in the national security council and think tanks and national security backin tanks and national security back in time once i'm going to tap that experience to ask a bigger picture question about your most important relationship, and that is with the united states. are you concerned thatjoe biden is a little bit confused about how far he is prepared to go in defence of taiwan because last year he made some statements about defending taiwan annette had to backtrack. confusion does not help you, does it? actually, the united states and taiwan are long—term friends and partners in the indo pacific region, and in past united has announced if i

remember correctly, about 15 packages of arms deals to taiwan in support of taiwan �*s defence authorisation. l taiwan in support of taiwan 's defence authorisation.- defence authorisation. i know that, you _ defence authorisation. i know that. you are _ defence authorisation. i know that, you are certainly - defence authorisation. i know| that, you are certainly getting weapons but i'm coming to the point aboutjoe biden, what he said last year when he said anyone taking action, invading against our need to bash nato allies, we would respond, and he went on to say mrs emma japan, korea, taiwan, and people reminded him it wasn't quite the same with taiwan and the us has a policy of strategic ambiguity rather than a full—fledged defence pact, and joe biden �*s white house had to backtrack and ijust wondering whether that confusion worries you. hot confusion worries you. not reall . confusion worries you. not really- we _ confusion worries you. not really. we get _ confusion worries you. not really. we get the - confusion worries you. llrrlt really. we get the sense in taiwan that the us commitment is stronger than ever, and at the beginning of last year �*s invasion of ukraine, the united states immediately sent naval vessels to patrol the waters of

taiwan �*s street, and a high—ranking delegation led by the chief commander of general staff to confirm us security commitment to taiwan �*s security, the security of the taiwan strait, so we reiterate that kind of career commitment issued by the us government. last question, you said this year is sensitive for xi jingping. year is sensitive for xi jingping, you don't think he would launch a military operation in taiwan this year. let's look at for the next five years and let's try to learn the lessons of russia and ukraine. do you think within the next five years that your homeland, taiwan, will face a major military attack from china? , ., , ., china? yes, that is one thing that we are _ china? yes, that is one thing that we are in _ china? yes, that is one thing that we are in very _ china? yes, that is one thing that we are in very high - china? yes, that is one thing that we are in very high alertj that we are in very high alert for, and that is why we mentioned earlier in our conversation, seeing that we would prepare for the best

scenario to deal with all kinds of scenarios that may play out in the theatre of the taiwan strait and the number one thing that we would like to do is to consolidate domestic consensus. your message to your domestic population is more is coming, is it? , ., , is it? yes, we need to prepare for war. _ is it? yes, we need to prepare for war. we — is it? yes, we need to prepare for war, we cannot _ is it? yes, we need to prepare for war, we cannot predict - is it? yes, we need to prepare i for war, we cannot predict when or how it will happen, but what we can do is prepare for the worst—case scenario in the best way possible and that is a kind of political complication the government and our people and also a kind of communication between taiwan and our international community, particularly our friends from our democratic societies. ming—yen tsai, i thank you very much indeed forjoining me from brussels, thank you.— much indeed forjoining me from | brussels, thank you.—

hello, there. there was a lot of sunshine around first thing on sunday, but it was cold and frosty, and it was quite widespread across the country. these were the kind of temperatures we woke up to first thing on sunday morning, as low as minus six celsius. now, all change and quite literally as we speak because of this area of low pressure that is throwing cloud right across the country, and that is acting like a blanket so it is preventing those temperatures from falling too far. it will be a frost free start to monday morning, with temperatures more likely about four or five or six degrees above freezing. so, a difference to the feel of the weather, and quite a cloudy, grey story first thing in the morning. the winds are going to strengthen, and that is going to throw up some showery outbreaks of rain through wales, northern ireland,

north—west england as well through the day. quite blustery winds as well, either coming from a southerly or south—easterly direction, widely gusting in excess of 30 miles an hour. but sheltered eastern areas will see some sunshine and with the wind direction now coming from the south, that means it will be a little bit warmer, 17 degrees the expected high. thundery downpours are likely into the south—west through monday night into tuesday, and we can trail that weather front all the way back down into spain. in fact, the air is coming up from the sahara. it is going to be pushing its way steadily northwards, with the exception perhaps of the northern isles. here, you will stay in the cooler air for the next few days. that means first thing on tuesday morning, we are likely to see temperatures for degrees in lerwick but ten or 11 degrees not out of the question across central and southern parts of england and wales. yes, there is going to be some rain, some of it quite heavy, some thundery downpours pushing their way

steadily north and because the area is coming from the sahara, it could have sprinkling of saharan dust and that rain as well, that mightjust turn your washing or your car is a little bit grainy, a little bit orange at times. in terms of the feel of things, 17 or 18 degrees down into the south—east whether cloud lingers, we are only looking out around a maximum of six to eight celsius. but the rain will ease away, the isobars open up through the middle part of the week, and the weather story is set to quieten down. it looks likely that wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with 19 or 20 degrees not out of the question. a good deal of dry weather as well, as we head towards the easter weekend. whatever you are doing, take care and enjoy.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore. i'm karishma vaswani. the headlines: emmanuel macron is on target to win the first ballot in the french presidential election, but marine le pen gains ground at the polls. translation: don't make a mistake, this _ translation: don't make a mistake, this isn't _ translation: don't make a mistake, this isn't over. - translation: don't make a mistake, this isn't over. the | mistake, this isn't over. the debate we're going to have over next 15 days decides for our country and for europe. grim discoveries in ukraine. more than 1,200 bodies are found in areas around kyiv that were previously occupied by russian troops. the british chancellor asks for an official review of his financial affairs, saying he's confident it will show he followed the rules.

thousands take to the streets in pakistan to protest