this is bbc news. we will have all the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour as newsday continue straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk, i'm stephen sackur. russia's invasion of ukraine and kyiv�*s defiant response will have a long—term impact on geopolitics far beyond europe's eastern flank. the west insists putin must fail, but this century's rising power, china, offers mr putin friendship without limits. could the ukrainian invasion foreshadow an effort by beijing

to eliminate the thorn in its side — namely, taiwan? well, my guest is taipei representative to the eu, ming—yen tsai. could what starts in ukraine end in taiwan? ming—yen tsai in brussels, welcome to hardtalk. it's my pleasure to be here with you. it's pleasure to have you on the show. you, of course, sit there in brussels, you are the representative of

taipei, as it's put, to the european union. ijust wonder, from your position, what impact has russia's invasion of ukraine had on your homeland? yes, i think our global community is watching the situation in ukraine closely and we believe that impact of the ukraine situation will be far—reaching and global—reaching, so i think the first situation that we need to keep watching will be about the geopolitical phase, and europe may turn out with a new map, so this is a wake—up call to our global community because it shows how easily authoritarian countries can use force to challenge liberal—based order and international borders, so it's very important for our democratic community to hold a line and then raise for the cost of russia's invasion, otherwise some other authoritarian countries around the world, such as china, may copy that type of model, and do the same thing to its neighbourhood. let me stop you there. you do feel, do you,

that something has happened with that invasion of ukraine which has repercussions in your region and, in particular, you see it as some sort of values trial where the rule of law, international law and democracy are somehow at stake in a much broader sense? yes, that's correct. because, i think, this time, russia is using its military muscle to challenge the international border and in our region, china has very strong intentions to challenge the liberal—based order, so we are concerned that china will copy that kind of model and follow russia's steps to do the same thing to the neighbourhood and, in the past few years, actually, china has intensified its military activity in the vicinity of taiwan and china keeps sending its military aircraft to intrude into the air defence demarcation zone of taiwan

by showing its military muscles. we will get to the military situation on the ground and in the taiwan straits injust a moment, butjust to stick with your notion of this being about international rules, the international order, the implication of what you're saying is that there is some direct parallel between russia and ukraine, and then china and taiwan but, of course, there is one fundamental difference, isn't there? the international community recognises, and has long recognised, the sovereignty of ukraine as an independent nation state. the international community does not recognise taiwan's status as an independent nation state. indeed, the vast majority of countries around the world adhere to the one china policy and the notion that your status is far short, in taiwan, of being an independent nation. yes, you are right, but more and more countries around the world, they are starting

to look at taiwan from the perspective of one china policy, as you just mentioned, but one china policy has some differences compared to china's proposal for the one china principal because one china policy recognises that the people's republic is the only legal government in china but does not recognise that taiwan is part of the people's republic, so we hope we can continue to use that kind of persistence to deepen taiwan's partnership and substantive cooperation with our friends around the world. if you think the international order and international rules are at stake, how disappointed were you that when it came to that crucial early vote at the united nations, demanding a withdrawal of russian forces from all ukrainian territory,

some of the biggest, most influential countries in the world chose to abstain — and i'm not thinking just of china itself, but india, pakistan, south africa? if you in taiwan want to convince yourselves that the international community does respect rules and does value democracy, maybe that vote was a bit of a disappointment? yes, i understand your concerns, but i think what we are now witnessing is a kind of competition between two different groups. one is democracy and the other is autocracy and after russia's invasion of ukraine, the competition between these two groups of countries will reach a new high in the future, and what we are concerned is that russia and china has announced that they will deepen their strategic partnership with each other and, as you mentioned earlier, they say their partnership will have no boundaries, will have no limits, so that is something that we witness on the side

of the autocracy, and on the other side... so, if that concerns you, you see the strength and depth of the friendship between russia and china, do you believe that what has happened in the last 1.5 months has made more likely a chinese military intervention in your homeland, in taiwan? yes, actually, we are in a state of high alert, based on china's military activity around taiwan. and in the first day of russia's invasion, china sent about ten sorties of military aircraft to intrude into taiwan's aerial zone, and we continue to watch the situation, and what we are concerned is that china is showing its military muscle to taiwan and the purpose is to use military intimidation against the taiwan's people and taiwan's government, to say that china has never abandoned its military option against taiwan and will use its military control in the taiwan strait

to get used to the battlefield in the taiwan strait. i hear what you are saying, and there is no doubt that if one looks at the number of sorties flown by the chinese airforce over taiwan's airspace, if one looks at the naval activity in the taiwan straits, there is something going on, and one can also say, i guess, that the focus of international attention is very much on ukraine right now, which beijing may well be aware of. one us congressman put it like this just the other day, mike gallagher, a republican, and he said, "all of this "evidence suggests that we are, right now, in the window "of maximum danger for taiwan". is that the way that you see it? yes, i think this time, we need to hold a spirit of solidarity and unity to support ukraine, and then raise the cost russia's invasion, and i believe china is watching the situation closely because there will be two major concerns

from the chinese side. number one is how likely russia can conquer ukraine without too much price. number two, is what the economic impact will be of global sanctions against russia? if russia can conquer ukraine and achieve its political and military objective without paying too much price, then china may follow those steps. and if russia has to pay a lot for the invasion, then china has to think twice because this is a very important political year for china. council party will organise its 20th national congress, in which xi jinping is going to extend his tenure for another five years, maybe for the entire rest of his life, so i believe xi jinping will be very cautious to do the calculation before waging a war in the theatre of the taiwan strait against taiwan. yes, well, xijinping may well be cautious if he believes that taiwan can put up as fierce and effective resistance

to the might of the chinese military as ukraine has already put up in the face of the might of the russian military, so the question to you, if i may say so, as a representative of your country, is do you believe, honestly, that taiwan is in a position right now to match ukraine and put up that level of effective military resistance? yes, i think we have been investing so many resources to improve our defence capacity and taiwan does not want to enter into a kind of arms race with china, which is not in taiwan's interest because china is much bigger than taiwan in terms of military resources and manpower, so what we want to do is to improve our defence capacity, particularly focus on the promotion of taiwan's capacity to do asymmetric warfare against china's potential invasion against taiwan, and a lot of focus goes

to the modernisation of the taiwanese submarine force, missile force, air defence system, and ourfacilities, so we will continue to build taiwan into a strong and agile military force to push china to think twice before going too far. one aspect of ukraine's resistance which has been very striking is the degree of coherence in their society, from leadership — president zelensky very effectively leading his nation — to the degree to which all ukrainians have united in their defiance and their common cause against russia. do you think there is that same level of unity and the same quality of leadership in taiwan? yes, i think when we talk about the situation in taiwan, one thing i want to share with you is that taiwan

is democracy. we don't want to become part of authoritarian china, particularly after hong kong's situation. no—one in taiwan has any interest in china's proposal for one country, two systems, so if china decides to move towards military adventurism in the taiwan strait, taiwan will take any sorts of efforts to safeguard our democracy and our sovereignty. sorry to interrupt... the endeavour taken by the ukraine people and the government, that is how to build a very resilient civilian society against foreign invasion, and one that has become a very hot issue in taiwan at the moment — that is how to build a very strong system to mobilise our reserve forces and to promote the connection between our civilian society and our defence department, so that has become a very important issue in the parliament's debate in taiwan at this point. that's very interesting.

how worried are you by the leverage that nuclear weapons gives china, just as we can see in a certain sense, the leverage it has given vladimir putin, because when nato has shied away from any talk of imposing a no—fly zone or indeed sending jet fighters to the ukrainian military, they have cited the danger of escalation, danger of escalating with russia — i.e. with a nuclear power which appears to be ready at some point to use nuclear weapons as part of its battlefield strategy? the very same could be said of china, and that gives china a leverage which may come back to haunt taiwan. yes, i think there might be many military options in the hands of chinese leaders, but what taiwan can do is prepare for all of those worst scenarios in our best way. how can you prepare for a scenario in which you don't have nukes and china does, and the whole world knows that?

because i think when we about to deter war, we can, you know, mobilise all kinds of policies, resources and tools. i personally would like to share with you a very good idea, proposed by our american colleagues, which idea is called �*integrated deterrence�*, which means that with democratic countries, we can take some collective efforts together and then, to make use of all kinds of policy resources or policy instruments to hold the ground and then to raise the cost for those countries or those region's powers that intends to challenge the world—based order and international borders. if we can do so, then we will be able to push china to think twice before going too far, so that's the, you know, object of deterrence. we have talked about different aspects of the military strategizing, let's now talk about economics and leverage. again, what we have seen

in russia is the west pretty united in imposing sanctions, but there have been limits because of the reliance of europe in particular on russian gas. the difficulties are even greater when it comes to assessing leverage in any future potential conflicts involving china and taiwan because china is so interwoven into the world economy, so powerful in the world economy — particularly in europe. you see it as the representative of taipei in the european union. you know howjust reliant germany, for example, is on trade with china — to the tune of some 200 billion euros a year. you know that china's belt and road initiative now reaches into hungary, italy, greece, a host of european union member states. china has effectively ensured that the world can't afford to isolate china.

yes, ithink, i mean, compared to russia, china is a much bigger economic power in the international arena and we may also need to look at this issue from a different angle. that is taiwan is also a powerhouse to semiconductors and ict products. if we just look at those at those chips, taiwan accounts for about 92% of the global production, so—called �*defence�* chips, which is under the 10mm... crosstalk. i know very well from a little bit of research that the taiwanese dominance of the semiconductor chip market is extraordinary. you have the power, whether it be from apple iphones to all of the computerisation of automobiles, you have the power to shut down vast swathes of electronic industry across the world. are you telling me you are now prepared to use that sort of power to become, if you like, a semiconductor

superpower in the world? i'm saying that if china invades taiwan, they will cause a lot of problems with the shortage of taiwan supplies of those semiconductors or ict products, in which china would suffer badly. so, what i am talking about, taiwan also has some leverage in our hands and the most important thing is that we need to, as i mentioned earlier, we need to show that kind of solidarity between our like—minded friends of the democratic society, to lead those potential invaders to understand the cost would be very high if they go too far. some taiwanese have even gone so far to talk of a �*silicon shield�* that protects taiwan in reality from chinese aggression. do you really believe that? yes, i think after the russian invasion of ukraine, it would be very important for our global community, particularly our democratic

society, to think about how to reshape supply chain security for many items such as energy, food, semiconductors or some other key industry sectors. without doing so, i�*m afraid, the question that you mentioned earlier, if we just depend on china�*s market, that may increase china�*s leverage and make china become more confident to use its force to achieve its political objectives in the future. i�*m fascinated by what you�*re saying and the quiet way in which you are projecting taiwanese power, but let�*s be real and again, let�*s look at brussels, where you sit. one country in the european union, lithuania, has gone much further than their eu fellow members and they�*ve actually allowed taiwan to open an office under the label of taiwan in their country — a much — in essence, an embassy of taiwan.

china has been infuriated by that and, as a result, has cut trade ties with lithuania, has tried to isolate lithuania, and lithuania is paying a price and, indeed, is so upset that it�*s trying to counteract china�*s measures at the wto but, surely, the message of that spat between giant china and tiny lithuania is that many europeans are going to think very hard before they confront china in that way? we understand your concerns, and lithuania is a very brave country that always withstands that kind of suppression or pressure from foreign hostile states, and this time, lithuania decided to deepen cooperation with taiwan and immediately suffered economic coercion from the economy side. but because this time, china went further to impose secondary sanctions against lithuania, which is to push european countries or european companies not to use the components or spare parts from lithuania,

otherwise they cannot sell their products to china. this kind of action not only does damage to lithuania�*s economic situation but also jeopardises the eu�*s important principle of single market integration, and by that reason might be in the process of suffering economic coercion from china. lithuania also receives very strong political support from the european commission and european council and for that reason you just mentioned, the eu would like to submit the lithuania case to the wto for further consultation in support of lithuania. so, what i am saying is that we will continue to deepen our cooperation with the european commission because taiwan has been isolated from the international community, so we treasure that kind of cooperation program between taiwan and the european commission. european union has been a very important normative power in the world, so we use our cooperation with european union

to reach out on so many important issues, like we share common concerns. crosstalk. that is yourjob as the diplomatic representative of taipei to the eu, that is yourjob, but you also come with a lot of experience in the national security council, in think tanks in national security back in taiwan, so i�*m going to tap that experience to ask a bigger picture question about your most important relationship, and that is with the united states. are you concerned that joe biden — well, to put it bluntly— is a little bit confused about how far he is prepared to go in defence of taiwan? because last year, he made some statements about defending taiwan and then had to backtrack. confusion doesn�*t help you, does it? actually, i mean, the united states and taiwan are long—term friends and partners in the indo—pacific region and in the past five—plus years, united states has announced, if i remember it correctly, about 15 packages

of arms deals to taiwan in support of taiwan�*s defence authorisation. crosstalk. i know that you are certainly getting weapons, but i�*m coming to this point about biden, what he said last year when he said "anyone taking action, invading "against our nato allies, we would respond", and then he went on to say, "it�*s the same with japan, "it�*s the same with south korea, "it�*s the same with taiwan," and then people reminded him it wasn�*t quite the same with taiwan and the us has a policy of �*strategic ambiguity�* rather than a full—fledged defence pact, and joe biden�*s white house had to backtrack, and i�*m just wondering whether that confusion worries you? not really. actually, what we sense in taiwan that the us commitment to taiwan�*s security is becoming clearer than ever and at the beginning of russia�*s invasion of ukraine, the united states immediately sent naval vessels to patrol in the waters of taiwan�*s strait and also sent a very high—ranking delegation, led by the chief commander of general staff,

to confirm us security commitment to taiwan�*s security, the security in the taiwan strait. right. so we treasure that kind of commitment issued by the us government. last question. you said that this year is sensitive for xi jinping, you don�*t think that he would launch a military operation in taiwan this year. let�*s look ahead for the next five years and let�*s try to learn the lessons of russia—ukraine. do you think within the next five years that your homeland, taiwan, will face a major military attack from china? yes. that is one thing that we are — we always stay on very high alert, and that is what i mentioned earlier in our conversation, saying that we would prepare for the worst scenario in the best way, the smartest way possible, to deal with all kinds of scenarios that may turn out in the theatre of the taiwan strait, and the number one thing

that we would like to do is to consolidate domestic consensus on this issue. but your message to your domestic population is that "war is coming," is it? yes, we need to prepare for the war. we cannot predict when or how it will happen, but what we can do is to prepare for the worst—case scenario in the best way possible, and that is a kind of a political communication between the government and our ordinary people, and also a kind of communication between taiwan and our international community — particularly our friends from our democratic societies. all right, well, ming—yen tsai, i thank you very much indeed forjoining me from brussels, thank you. thank you.

hello there. it was a much milder start monday morning, largely frost—free, as it will be again this morning. and that�*s because we�*ve changed the wind direction. they�*re coming in off the atlantic, they are gathered around an area of low pressure, which means we are pulling in more cloud and showery rain, as well. but it will at least stay relatively mild, if not warm in the sunshine as we saw on monday night, i9 celsius in heathrow. but lots of heavy showers have been gathering towards the south through the night. there could be some rumbles of thunder, patchy rain heading its way northwards elsewhere, and that�*s why we are seeing our temperatures holding up. the winds starting to ease, so it won�*t be as windy on tuesday, and we�*ve still got this onshore breeze for the east of scotland, the northern isles — so quite chilly here, but it shouldn�*t be as chilly for the eastern side of england, but as you can see,

we�*ve got showers and longer spells of rain, some of them heavy, some of them thundery pushing their way northwards and eastwards through the day. where we see some sunshine, temperatures will lift above average, particularly for england and wales. 18—20 celsius possibly across the east anglian region in the southeast, but for most, temperatures a little bit above par, except where we have the more persistent rain, which is likely to continue its journey northwards then through tuesday night into wednesday. eventually, the milder air reaches the northern isles, and again, it looks like a relatively mild start to wednesday, but misty and murky in places. we could have some patches of fog around tuesday as well as wednesday, which will take their time to break up. and then it�*s more likely to be a day of sunny spells and scattered showers, so perhaps a bit more sunshine on offer. but again, like we will see on tuesday, pollen levels pretty high, and temperatures getting into the high teens more widely as well further north, it will feel warmer, i think, across scotland and northern ireland on wednesday. come thursday, we�*ve got another weather system starting to work its way in from the west ahead of that early morning mist and fog taking the time to break up. but again, temperatures 15—19 celsius, and that�*s above average for this time of year.

and then further ahead into the easter weekend, that weather system weakens as it works eastwards because it�*s working into high pressure. so it�*s how established that high—pressure becomes, really, this weekend, how good it is at keeping our weather fronts at bay. there is still a little bit of uncertainty, as you can see, with low pressure close by to the west later on into the easter weekend. but at the moment, for many, there will be some warmth around, often dry and bright, but we do need to keep an eye on that one. do stay tuned.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore. i�*m karishma vaswani. the headlines... more evidence emerges about sexual violence ukraininan women have suffered at the hands of russian forces. we have a special report. the woman who lived in this house managed to escape, along with her child. she called the ukrainian police and she has given them her testimony. she has told them she was raped multiple times by the two drunk russian soldiers who killed her husband. ukraine�*s president warns russia is amassing tens of thousands of troops ahead of a fresh offensive in the eastern donbas region. we�*ll hear from our defence correspondent who�*s in that region.

also on newsday. ..