tv War in Ukraine BBC News April 28, 2022 12:30pm-1:01pm BST
12:30 pm
hello, this is bbc news. you have been sending in many questions about the war which we will be putting to our panel today. let us take you to the panel we have set up. christine is a veteran of foreign affairs journalism in france. among her many books is has written about russia and it oligarch, shejoins us written about russia and it oligarch, she joins us from written about russia and it oligarch, shejoins us from greece where you are on assignment. from south london, the security analyst michael clark is a professor of defence study, the former
12:31 pm
director—general of the royal united service institute. welcome to you as well. dr snedcov. author of russia's security policy under putin. she is also in london. welcome to you and finally from lviv. welcome to you all. andre, i would very much like to start with you, but before we start putting questions, to you, and the rest of the panel, just to get a feeling of what life is like for you, in lviv, you are right at the western end of course of ukraine, you are what, a 20 hour drive, a1400 kilometre journey to the donbas region, to luhansk where the fighting is intensifying. before we start with the question, how is life in lviv?
12:32 pm
how fearful of people of what is happening more than 1,000 kilometres away? hello? andre, can you hear me? 0k, away? hello? andre, can you hear me? ok, i away? hello? andre, can you hear me? 0k, iam away? hello? andre, can you hear me? ok, i am sorry, away? hello? andre, can you hear me? 0k, iam sorry, i away? hello? andre, can you hear me? ok, i am sorry, i think we have a few communication problems with andre, we will show pictures from lviv in a moment once get the connection back, let us go to the first question really, i think from the recent french elections recent tyne, this will be one for you. because of course, emmanuel macron, the re—elected president has been trying to negotiate and broker some sort of peace, with ukraine. let us take this question from emme a in france.
12:33 pm
i wanted to know how we are going to be the relations between france and russia, if the french president continues to help ukraine, and could he become dangerous?— continues to help ukraine, and could he become dangerous? christine, did ou catch he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all— he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all of _ he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all of that. _ he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all of that. i _ he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all of that. i wonder- he become dangerous? christine, did you catch all of that. i wonder what . you catch all of that. i wonder what your response is?— your response is? well, it is true has been eelected _ your response is? well, it is true has been eelected on _ your response is? well, it is true has been eelected on 2 - your response is? well, it is true has been eelected on 2 the - your response is? well, it is truej has been eelected on 2 the 24th. your response is? well, it is true - has been eelected on 2 the 24th. he will continue to play a leading role in the name of france, of course, but also of the european union, which has been made so far remarkably united in its support for ukraine, and its efforts, at least the french and the german ones in particular, to try and convince vladimir putin that this war is not only obscene, but it is useless.
12:34 pm
again the russian military efforts on ground, even if in donbas, the situation is getting worse for ukrainian forces, that the russian forces have performed usually badly. to get back to emmanuel macron, yes, he will certainly pursue his efforts. i assume he will certainly want to go to kyiv, in the coming days, macron was of course busy, in the french presidential campaign therefore he has to put all his efforts into getting reelected. is that going to be more dangerous for france? i think first, goal is to think about ukrainians, and the fact that of course it is our very values, and freedoms, which are also
12:35 pm
at stake, and the ukrainians are fighting for the same values. qm. fighting for the same values. 0k, christine, thank _ fighting for the same values. 0k, christine, thank you. i am fighting for the same values. 0k, christine, thank you. lam not fighting for the same values. 0k, christine, thank you. i am not sure if we have got connections with andriy. i don't think we have. so, i think michael i will turn to you if thatis think michael i will turn to you if that is all right. to the security, and military matters you are an expert in. a quick over view of the situation in the east of the country, as well how well is the us russian army doing well. a new offensive started several days ago but it is not making rapid progress, it seems to have been a rolling start, ratherthan it seems to have been a rolling start, rather than a thunder clap start, rather than a thunder clap start, which is to say that forces began the offensive with still equipment and more people coming in behind them, so the offensive will build up. it didn't get off to a very big start what the russians are trying to do is to draw a line from
12:36 pm
kharkiv in the north to mariupol, and create the, close the salient that would enclose, and therefore surround about 40% of the ukrainian army, who are well dug in in that area. to that is quite a big line to draw, more immediately the russians are trying to draw a smaller line, south of isium as far as donetsk. that would enclose a smaller area, and the _ that would enclose a smaller area, and the two — that would enclose a smaller area, and the two places they want to go for are _ and the two places they want to go for are not— and the two places they want to go for are not particularly close to them _ for are not particularly close to them at — for are not particularly close to them at the moment, they have bombarded both but if they take the two places, then they are, that is the key— two places, then they are, that is the key to— two places, then they are, that is the key to controlling all of the other— the key to controlling all of the other routes in and out of to donbas, _ other routes in and out of to donbas, so that will be the key battle — donbas, so that will be the key battle but it hasn't really started yet and — battle but it hasn't really started yet and so far the ukrainians are holding — yet and so far the ukrainians are holding the russians at most of the three _ holding the russians at most of the three of— holding the russians at most of the three of four area, the the lines of offensive — three of four area, the the lines of offensive that the russians have tried _
12:37 pm
offensive that the russians have tried to — offensive that the russians have tried to establish so far.- tried to establish so far. these ictures tried to establish so far. these pictures are — tried to establish so far. these pictures are from _ tried to establish so far. these pictures are from donbas, - tried to establish so far. these l pictures are from donbas, odesa pictures are from donbas, 0desa hasn't fallen but we are looking at what is happening in moldova, and in trans nhs are. andrew asks how do the russians supply their troops there, given there is no access to there, given there is no access to the sea and the only borders are with enemies of russia. mail moldova with enemies of russia. moll moldova is not an with enemies of russia. i’j�*ifiilil moldova is not an enemy in the sense ukraine is. is not an enemy in the sense ukraine is the— is not an enemy in the sense ukraine is. the russians have had troops in there _ is. the russians have had troops in there and _ is. the russians have had troops in there and it — is. the russians have had troops in there and it declared itself a russian _ there and it declared itself a russian speaking area. they have been _ russian speaking area. they have been instruct by the un you to remove — been instruct by the un you to remove troops but they have ignored it. it remove troops but they have ignored it it looks _ remove troops but they have ignored it. it looks as if the russians only have _ it. it looks as if the russians only have 15, — it. it looks as if the russians only have 15, 200,000 troops there. nobody—
12:38 pm
have 15, 200,000 troops there. nobody can substantiate it. there are a _ nobody can substantiate it. there are a lot — nobody can substantiate it. there are a lot of, of mercenaries there, are a lot of, of mercenaries there, a lot— are a lot of, of mercenaries there, a lot of— are a lot of, of mercenaries there, a lot of troops but the official so-caiied _ a lot of troops but the official so—called peacekeeping troops are probably— so—called peacekeeping troops are probably about 1500, they have been supplied _ probably about 1500, they have been supplied so far because this is the head _ supplied so far because this is the head quarters of the 14th army, the old red _ head quarters of the 14th army, the old red army, 14th army so there is a lot of— old red army, 14th army so there is a lot of stuff— old red army, 14th army so there is a lot of stuff there, and as peacekeepers, they are only there really. _ peacekeepers, they are only there really. to— peacekeepers, they are only there really, to keep order, so they don't need _ really, to keep order, so they don't need heavy— really, to keep order, so they don't need heavy equipment and moldova, the government has been careful not to push— the government has been careful not to push too— the government has been careful not to push too hard on this republic, and so _ to push too hard on this republic, and so until— to push too hard on this republic, and so until the war started, there was no _ and so until the war started, there was no problem in getting the troops resupplied. it may get more difficult _ resupplied. it may get more difficult if it does blow up as if it looks — difficult if it does blow up as if it looks about to, and moldova becomes— it looks about to, and moldova becomes unstable, supplying them may becomes unstable, supplying them may he more _ becomes unstable, supplying them may be more difficult. i becomes unstable, supplying them may be more difficult.— be more difficult. i think we have
12:39 pm
now not a be more difficult. i think we have now got a connection _ be more difficult. i think we have now got a connection with - be more difficult. i think we have| now got a connection with deputy mayor in leave. i hope you can hear me now, if that has been corrected. i wanted to start by asking what life was like where you are at the moment, you are a 20 hour drive from luhansk, the donbas region where the fighting is intensifying, what are things like there, just to start off with? how prepared are people there and aware of the conflict, more than 1,000 kilometres away.— 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say- _ 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it _ 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it is _ 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it is a _ 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it is a real _ 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it is a real war- 1,000 kilometres away. nobody can definitely say. it is a real war in - definitely say. it is a real war in ukraine, when two months has already passed, and so it is real when russians fight against not military, they killed children, you know, more than 200 children unfortunately were killed by russian, so women and so it is reality, which we live today,
12:40 pm
in our country, in our city, so come paribly lviv is a city with peaceful sky, because we had only several missile attacks but unfortunately, the last attack killed seven people, but come paribly what is in mariupol it is real in the sight of 21st century. we have today made mission to provide peaceful places for our ukrainians who are located from east of ukraine, cities were bombed every day and today we have more than 200,000 ukrainians, today we have more and more trains, with wounded ukrainians, and so it is really quite awful what our doctors see, they never see such a lot of and
12:41 pm
such awful injured ukrainian, after missile attacks from russia side. some companies —— companies relocated to our city, and i can definitely say for this last two months as ukrainians show for the whole world, for the whole europe that today all ukrainians are heroes, and so the really brave, they fight, we fight together and we will fight to win an end. we really do appreciate that, that people over the world who understand what is the real value of this, this war, what is real in this moment happen in mariupol, happen in kharkiv. the awful things which russia do and so it is a war not only against ukraine, so today we fight for the whole europe. stay with us, thank you. i am glad we have you now connected. let will
12:42 pm
us turn to what is happening in russia. what is the mind—set of vladimir putin, let us speak to a lecturer in the international politics of russia. this question from gideon about sanctions mr; from gideon about sanctions ij�*i: question from gideon about sanctions m: question regarding the russia—ukraine conflict. i5 question regarding the russia-ukraine conflict. , . ., russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the _ russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the best _ russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the best way _ russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the best way to _ russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the best way to deal- russia-ukraine conflict. is sanction in russia the best way to deal with | in russia the best way to deal with the situation at the moment, did you get that is sanctions the best way to deal with it. the get that is sanctions the best way to deal with it.— to deal with it. the sanctions we have seen _ to deal with it. the sanctions we have seen are _ to deal with it. the sanctions we have seen are unprecedented i to deal with it. the sanctions we have seen are unprecedented asj to deal with it. the sanctions we - have seen are unprecedented as early of february this year, the us agent the uk had launched sanctions, so it is unprecedented, we have to remember that russia has been under
12:43 pm
sanction since 2014, so the extent of sanction regime has been a long time, and there are expectations that the russian economy will indeed suffer, and contract, figures vary how much they contract, we don't know. now something to consider however, is that although the sanctions is regime is very extensive, russian inflation is on the up, and the situation in the country has been changing. it doesn't mean that sanctions will have in an eimmediate effect on the battlefield in ukraine. that is not what sanctions do, what they do is they degrade an actors capacity to be able to rebuild the military for example. we are already seeing that on the ground. we are seeing that the russian military is having difficulty to manufacture tanks, to find new components for example for the weapon, but it is important that the weapon, but it is important that
12:44 pm
the sanctions regime has been deployed, together with the military assistance, from the west, to ukraine, because what you need is a two pronged approach. we need the immediacy of the military assistance to ukraine and we need the longer term approach of sappingion against russia to ensure, to prevent yushchenkoist russia from being able to do this in the future. sanctions on their own is not enough to get out of this conflict but together with military assistance, together with military assistance, together with europe moving away from buying russian energy is a way of putting maximum pressure on russia domestically, on the ground militarily and in terms of the energy e port in trying to convince president putin to end this conflict and to help ukraine on their side to win this war on the ground. thank you. michael. i want to come back to you, nato is pouring more
12:45 pm
arms into the defence, we also know what the west�*s war aims are, potentially now, with ukraine, liz truss the foreign secretary peeking in london, to take russia back to pre—february 24th, or indeed, further than that, to what happened in 2014 where they annexed crimea. russia's response has always been that this war could escalate involving the use of nuclear weapons potentially. listen to this question from johan in france. hi. i potentially. listen to this question from johan in france.— from johan in france. hi, i am livin: in from johan in france. hi, i am living in france _ from johan in france. hi, i am living in france and _ from johan in france. hi, i am living in france and i - from johan in france. hi, i am living in france and i would i from johan in france. hi, i am| living in france and i would like from johan in france. hi, i am - living in france and i would like to ask, _ living in france and i would like to ask, do— living in france and i would like to ask, do you — living in france and i would like to ask, do you think that conflict in ukraine — ask, do you think that conflict in ukraine could lead to a global nuclear— ukraine could lead to a global nuclear war?— ukraine could lead to a global nuclear war? ~ . ., ., ., ., nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there _ nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there of _ nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there of that? _ nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there of that? not - nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there of that? not for - nuclear war? michael, how great a risk is there of that? not for a - risk is there of that? not for a ulobal risk is there of that? not for a global nuclear _ risk is there of that? not for a global nuclear war, _ risk is there of that? not for a global nuclear war, mine - risk is there of that? not for a global nuclear war, mine this | risk is there of that? not for a l global nuclear war, mine this is risk is there of that? not for a - global nuclear war, mine this is not a nuclear crisis, i mean, in cuba in 1962 the famous cuban missile crisis that was a nuclear crisis, it was about nuclear weapon, this is a crisis about something different,
12:46 pm
and what makes it nuclear is because president putin, but he always has, he hasn't made a speech since about 2015, without mentioning, that russia is a major nuclear power and russia is a major nuclear power and russia holeses more nuclear weapons than any other single power in the world, so, it is president putin's threats which raise the spectre, if a nuclear weapon were used in this case, then, the likelihood, i think we are a long way from this yet, but the likelihood is it would be a tactical nuclear weapon used in ukraine somewhere, if that were the case, it would necessarily do all that enough damage, small nuclear weapons are surprisingly small but a major psychological barrier would have been crossed, threshold would have been crossed, threshold would have been crossed and that would have been crossed and that would have been crossed and that would have been a different ball game. how would the west react to that? we don't know. the americans have rah group called the tiger team or team tiger who are working all the time
12:47 pm
on responses to anything that president putin might do next and they think about this on a daily basic, what would we do if putin do this? it isn't the west is stuck for options but it doesn't want to announce in advance what they would be, because that would diminish the force of them. no, i don't think there would be a global nuclear war but we are closer to a use of nuclear weapons than i would have imagineled before 24th february, and there is no question about it, this crisis is becoming more dangerous every week and we have to live with that fact. christine, i would like to bring in a question from lorraine, who asks, how likely is it that pruitt president putin will go beyond ukraine in other countries? it has been very clear — ukraine in other countries? it has been very clear for _ ukraine in other countries? it has been very clear for all _ ukraine in other countries? it has been very clear for all those - ukraine in other countries? it has i been very clear for all those former communist country, autumn those
12:48 pm
european countries who are now fully fledged member of the eu, and of nato, that president putin, for many years, has been fighting not so much against the individual country, remember, the way estonia was attacked with cryptic weapons. he has indeed said so many time, ever since 2007, in at the munich security conference, so beyond ukraine, as was said press conference will are you have mod doe have a, a very small and fragile country, not a member of the eu nor nato, which is very much, that maybe
12:49 pm
the target of russian troops, but the target of russian troops, but the goal of president putin is to show that russia is indeed confronting europe, and the west, as a whole, and that is precisely what makes the fate, the outcome, if you will, of the ukrainian war, so decisive for all of us. everyone is talking about a shift potentially in world order now, especially looking at china, will they will ally itself with russia, when you look at the historic diplomacy since the second world war, jim singleton asked this question, can russia be voted off as a permanent member of the un security council, what would this mean, would it make any difference? so in practise there isn't a
12:50 pm
mechanism for voting off anybody from the un security council, when it is put in place, no—one saw it would be something that would be necessary, so there is no mechanism for doing that, think what it shows the inebbing fetive of the security council in this conflict in ukraine, over syria and basically to which this body has been sidelined, and the way in which this war is basically being diplomatically managed by the west, together with the uk and the eu. {lilia managed by the west, together with the uk and the eu.— the uk and the eu. 0k, andriy. we have a question _ the uk and the eu. 0k, andriy. we have a question from _ the uk and the eu. 0k, andriy. we have a question from someone - the uk and the eu. 0k, andriy. we have a question from someone in l have a question from someone in paris about the impact on civilian, think we can listen to that question now. 0k, think we can listen to that question now. ok, i think we can listen to that question now. 0k, iam going think we can listen to that question now. ok, i am going to ask you the question, because i think we have a problem in the gallery here, do humanitarian soakses have access to the war zones and can they help people on the ground, first hand. ——
12:51 pm
associations. yes, so it is, if we talk right now about what is really works, so today, today, everybody can, can help to ukraine, in order to be, to be ready to defend, and to help, to defend our country, so it is, in different issue, it first started in order to help on some concrete projects for example, one of the main targets from russia side is to destroy and to like, can say more, wider that we don't have any hospitals because one of the targets of missile attacks, is hospitals on the east of ukraine on centre of ukraine so a lot was destroyed. so the main one of the main projects right now for our regions to build and to start to work on national
12:52 pm
centre for rebuild tasting to combat trauma. more and more children, more and more women, man, so civilians, whom targets, russia, so they come to the city, so they need special care, it is not about classic rehabilitation, it is about, like a protest, it is about like long support and i have one personal story, when my friend who was shot several times so unfortunately, so, was cut his leg and hand, so so right now he have to start to live from new page, so italy be for long, so it will be help from mental health have to be, and so it is like a new, new understanding, how to start, how to start to live, from a
12:53 pm
new page. from another side, also can, a lot of people canjoin, in order to be opposite this russian fake and propaganda, they can also help in order to show position, because every time out i want to emphasise war, it is not only about ukraine, the ukrainians fight for the whole of europe, the whole world and so the cost of, of this war for ukraine is quite a lot, you know e about this example when you know in 0desa, last weekend russians killed by missile attack three children, they targeted civilians so we have to respond for this, the whole world and to show that it can be and so, i again emphasise we will win this war and we will fight till the winning end. , , , , and we will fight till the winning end. ,, , and we will fight till the winning end. ,, y,, ., end. just briefly because we are runnina end. just briefly because we are running out _ end. just briefly because we are running out of _ end. just briefly because we are running out of time. _ end. just briefly because we are running out of time. a - end. just briefly because we are running out of time. a final- running out of time. a final question for you. this conflict will
12:54 pm
have to end in compromise won't it? how far, briefly, would vladimir putin compromise? what would he settle for, in particular looking ahead to may 9th and that victory parade sell praying which celebrates the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war. brute the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war.— the deefeet of the nazis in the second world war. ~ ,, ., , , second world war. we know. it seems the -- we don't _ second world war. we know. it seems the -- we don't know. _ second world war. we know. it seems the -- we don't know. theth _ second world war. we know. it seems the -- we don't know. theth it - second world war. we know. it seems the -- we don't know. theth it seems| the —— we don't know. theth it seems the —— we don't know. theth it seems the russians haven't moved position. we will see the importance of 9th may, whether he will use that to increase mobilisation in russia to bring in more soldier, so we don't know when the 9th may will end up a de—escalation but we will need to see what ukraine, what is ukrainian negotiation position? i think the importances is what ukraine is prepared, you know, wants out of the conflict if not more than russians. thank you. that is it for this
12:55 pm
12:56 pm
ina good in a good way, where skies were clear, especially in aberdeenshire, the view of the northern lights were on show. this is where of course after some clear skies overnight we had most of the early sunshine, whereas the earlier satellite picture counteds where we had all of this cloud. a lot is hanging on through the day, just some hazy sunny spells coming through. despite all of that cloud, most of us are not going to see any rain because it is high pressure across the uk at the moment. there are a few showers round to the far north and northern isles. maybe from the thickest cloud
12:57 pm
in yorkshire around east anglia you may see a little drizzle. the cloud holding on for many, south wales and southern england it will thin to allow hazy brightness as it will in northern ireland, the further north you are and across southern parts of scotland. we started with the sunshine in northern scotland some cloud build, for the most part temperatures close to the mid teens but it will feel cool with the thickest cloud especially in the eastern side. it may get one or two showers in the south—east, into north east scotland we expect cloudier sky, a chance of frost where it is clear will be towards northern ireland, into northern england and southern scotland. it look like a brighter sunnier day across many areas on friday. a lot of cloud in east anglia and the south—east, whereas elsewhere, a better chance of seeing the sunshine, some cloud building, squeezing out a few showers in central and eastern parts of scotland. while over all it is looking like a warmer day tomorrow, with the cloud in the south—east
12:58 pm
this is where temperatures will be on the cool side again. there will be be breeze too. a change into the weekend. look at this. low pressure. weather fronts, weekend. look at this. low pressure. weatherfronts, that weekend. look at this. low pressure. weather fronts, that is weekend. look at this. low pressure. weatherfronts, that is rain heading our way. weatherfronts, that is rain heading ourway. it weatherfronts, that is rain heading our way. it is welcome in many places though it has to be timed with the weekend. it looks on saturday we will see rain pushing in, eventually into northern england whereas the rest of england and wales, there will be sunny spells and this is where we will see the hiring temperature, up to 17 degree, in hull and london. that weakens that rain as it moves south. patchy rain left on sunday, a lot of cloud left behind for the bank holiday.
1:00 pm
the united nations secretary general is here in ukraine to meet president zelensky. antonio guterres says the war in this country is evil. two days after he met president putin in moscow, the secretary general tours scenes near kyiv of alleged russian war crimes. war is an absurdity in the 21st—century. the war is evil. and we hearfrom a red cross volunteer who tells us how he was taken captive by russian forces and deported to russia. in our other main news this lunchtime... the death of four members of one family in south london —
43 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
BBC News Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on