this is bbc news. lam ben i am ben thompson. he had lined up to 2pm... —— rugby headlines at... interest rates rise to 1% — their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year — its highest ever quarterly figure. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies it has stormed the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19 and scientists monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think

spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s. hello to you, a warm welcome to bbc news. the bank of england has increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 1%, as it tries to damp down rising prices. it predicts inflation will rise to more than 10% this year — the highest rate since 1982. in a gloomy assessment, the bank has also forecast the economy will contract next year, leaving the uk facing a period of so—called stagflation — when prices rise quickly, but economic growth is slow. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. the global economy reopening after a pandemic and a war in ukraine —

don't ask what that has got to do with the price of cheese. the answer is everything. prices are going up weekly, you know? milk prices have gone up vastly in the last three or four months, butter is going up £5 a case, and then it has gone up another £5 a case. which 0k, it is good forfarmers, they are getting a decent price for their milk. but the knock—on effect is it is costing more to produce. because the electric costs have gone up, feed costs have gone up, fertiliser has gone up. so it is just a vicious circle at the moment. the inflation is global, and so was the reaction, with the us central bank, the federal reserve, hiking rates faster than they have in 22 years. inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing. and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down. today, the bank of england raised interest rates for the fourth time in a row, the first time that has

happened since 2007. global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply in the build up to and following the invasion. this has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world growth. this is what the bank of england's official interest rate is now, the highest in 13 years. but not very high, because for the last 13 years they have been at emergency rates. look at the historic average for the bank average for the bank of england's rate, 7.2%. then if you look at the highest it has been, in 1979, 17%. interest rates, when inflation was last this high, 30 years ago, were nearly 10%. but economists don't think today's still super—low rates will get anywhere near that. markets are expecting the interest rate to reach 2.5% by the end of this year, which we think is probably too high. raising interest rates is meant to cool down the economy by making it more expensive to borrow cash to spend or invest.

but in the streets outside the shop in central nottingham, businesses are already struggling with tight consumer purse strings. we are going to give it this year to see if it picks up any. if not, then... you are going to give up? i am going to think twice, i can't keep living on my savings. the risk in the coming months is that we go through the worst inflation in decades in the mists of a sharp economic slowdown. inflation in decades in the midst of a sharp economic slowdown. if higher interest rates are meant to put consumers off spending, soaring energy bills may have already done thatjob. let's get more on this now with our economics correspondent, andy verity. there is so much to unpack here, but let's talk first of all about the rate itself. it puts extra pressure on people and means mortgages are more expensive, for example, and loans and credit card debt? weill. loans and credit card debt? well, for a minority _ loans and credit card debt? well, for a minority of— loans and credit card debt? well, for a minority of credit _ loans and credit card debt? well, for a minority of credit card - for a minority of credit card holders, they will be more expensive. but we should remember in this context we tend to default to

thanking everyone is affected badly by interest rates but actually a third of the people in this country, only that much have a mortgage and for those who have fixed rate mortgages they won't be affected, but in terms of people immediately exposed to variable rate changes thatis exposed to variable rate changes that is less than 2 million people. nevertheless, for them it is quite hard, quite a few of them are mortgage prisoners trapped on those mortgages because of government's action selling them to lenders who can't offer them a new mortgage, but in any case it has those direct effects, but any way what the raising of interest rates is designed to do is to slow the economy down and cool it down, the theory being inflation is the equivalent of an economy overheating, it is like a car going too fast, so you need to hit the brakes with higher interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow and invest, slowing things down, but as the bank of england was pointing out today energy bills are already doing that. if you have a higher energy bills, the amount they had risen by is far more, even for those who are exposed to those mortgage

rate rises, so that has slowed the economy down already to the point, as you have highlighted, that there is a winning the economy may already to the point, as you have e highlighted, that there is a warning the economy may decided these interest rates and they voted on it and there was a split on that voting panel 50 and there was a split on that voting ane , ., y and there was a split on that voting ane h, y ., and there was a split on that voting ane , ., y ., ., and there was a split on that voting nane ,., , ., . . ., , panel so they were not all unanimous in decidin: panel so they were not all unanimous in deciding for— panel so they were not all unanimous in deciding for the _ panel so they were not all unanimous in deciding for the interest _ panel so they were not all unanimous in deciding for the interest rates - in deciding for the interest rates to go up? in deciding for the interest rates to no u? , in deciding for the interest rates to no u - ? , ., in deciding for the interest rates to no u - ? , . ., in deciding for the interest rates touou-? , . ., , in deciding for the interest rates th-ou? , ., ., , , to go up? yes, and that is partly because the _ to go up? yes, and that is partly because the issues _ to go up? yes, and that is partly because the issues you - to go up? yes, and that is partly because the issues you and - to go up? yes, and that is partly because the issues you and i - to go up? yes, and that is partly. because the issues you and i have been discussing because if you raise interest rates in this climate, where the last economic numbers show the economy barely growing, you might snuff out any chances of a decent recovery. we are in the land, i am not the first person to use this word, of stagflation, a word that goes back to the 1970s when the economy was both going through some of its highest inflation and the same time it was not going very much at all, so no one was getting any better off and in that they were getting worse off, but it is interesting if you compare it is the monetary committee at the bank of england who decided these interest

rates and they voted on it and there was a split on that voting panel 50 was a split on that voting panel so they were not all unanimous in deciding for the interest rates to go up? yes, and that is partly because the issues you and i have been discussing because if you raise interest rates in this climate, where the last economic numbers show the economy barely growing, you might snuff out any chances of a decent recovery. we are in the land, i am not the first person to use this word, of stagflation, a word that goes back to the 1970s when the economy was both going through some of its highest inflation and at the same time it was not going very much at all, so no one was getting any better off and that they were getting worse off, but it is interesting if you compare the last to the 1970s, most years in the 19705 to the 1970s, most years in the 1970s people did get better off because although there was high inflation pay rates were higher and rationality is not the case. yes. rationality is not the case. yes, and it is such _ rationality is not the case. yes, and it is such a _ rationality is not the case. yes, and it is such a juggling - rationality is not the case. yes, and it is such a juggling act - and it is such a juggling act keeping these things in balance and we should also remember even an interest rise takes time to filter through, so we won't see the impact straightaway will be? no, it is only because the interest rates have been so low for so long that this is a big thing, still only 1%. the historicnorm is 7.5% and this makes things... it does things like pump up things... it does things like pump up asset prices, so house prices, properties will not been much return, so it has these historic effects, so the unspoken words here from the bank of england are we want to get back to normal and don't want to get back to normal and don't want to have emergency rates will be done. �* ., ., ., to have emergency rates will be done. ., ., ., , ., .,

done. and a word on savers who have seen any savings _ done. and a word on savers who have seen any savings they _ done. and a word on savers who have seen any savings they might - done. and a word on savers who have seen any savings they might have - done. and a word on savers who have seen any savings they might have at i seen any savings they might have at bank of the building society and a word on savers who have seen any savings they might have a bank of the building society earn very little for a very long time, ? 50. little for a very long time,? so, but the little for a very long time, ? srr, but the unfortunate little for a very long time, ? s57, but the unfortunate thing little for a very long time, ? s513, but the unfortunate thing is little for a very long time, ? sr3, but the unfortunate thing is that because of those ultra low rates and the monetary policy, according to the monetary policy, according to the technical language, savers have been watching their saving shrink against inflation now for 15 or 20 years, and so that has also a distorting effect because if you don't incentivise saving, you don't incentivise investment and you don't get the productivity you need to improve living standards, so all of these things are out of whack and have been for years. we hope will be that by raising interest rates back to a more normal level, those distortions will disappear. yes, thanks for _ distortions will disappear. yes, thanks for explaining _ distortions will disappear. yes, thanks for explaining all - distortions will disappear. yes, thanks for explaining all of - distortions will disappear. yes, thanks for explaining all of that, it is notoriously complicated. andy verity there, our economics correspondent, thank you. let's stay with business because... the british energy giant, shell, has announced its highest ever quarterly profits. the company made nearly £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year. that's a three—fold increase on the same period in 2021. earlier our business editor, simonjack, explained what was behind the rise in profits. increased costs of things like oil, gas, which have filtered through to petrol and our heating bills meant that

companies like shell, as bp did earlier this week, have made bumper profits. we saw oil, crude oil prices, already high at the end of last year, gas prices already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged from a covid—related coma, if you like, were amplified by the russian invasion of ukraine, people worried that supplies from the world's second biggest oil exporter, the world's biggest gas exporter would be either shut off or boycotted, sent this international bidding war for prices, which means that they have made more money than they ever have in their 115 year history. as for what they are going to do with it, they are going to give a lot of money for their shareholders — £4.5 billion this quarter, £4.5 billion the next — which includes, by the way, millions of pension savers. they are also pledging to invest between them, bp and shell, over £40 billion in energy infrastructure over the next 7—10 years and that will be, you know, people will be watching very closely

to make sure they fulfil those commitments. 0ur our business editor, simonjack, there. voters have been heading to the polls today to have their say in a host of elections across the uk. in england 146 councils are holding elections — including in major cities like sheffield, birmingham and london. in scotland and wales all council areas are holding elections and in northern ireland people have been voting to elect the 90 mlas that sit in the northern ireland assembly. for full details of the elections in your area, go to the bbc news website. in the politics section, you can enter your postcode and get all the details. that's all at bbc.co.uk/news. and there's full coverage of the results here on bbc news from 11:a0 tonight with huw edwards. ukrainian officials say they have seen few signs

of the ceasefire that russia said it was implementing at the besieged steel plant in the city of mariupol. the kremlin insists humanitarian corridors are in place at the azovstal plant, where ukrainian fighters and some 200 civilians are trapped. ukraine says russian troops have tried to storm the works, which moscow denies. 0ur correspondent, joe inwood, sent this report from the capital, kyiv. we could be entering the last days of the battle for mariupol. the azovstal steelworks, where ukrainian fighters are making theirfinal stand, has been pounded from above for days. now it seems the assault from the ground is underway. translation: it's already - the second day since the enemy broke into the plant. there are heavy, bloody battles. i am proud of my soldiers, who are making superhuman efforts to contain the pressure of the enemy. the situation is extremely difficult, but no matter what, we continue to carry out the order to hold the defence. in short, the fight for azovstal

will be a fight to the death. but it's notjust ukrainian soldiers stuck in the sprawling tunnels and nuclear bunkers of this huge complex. more than 200 civilians are also thought to be sheltering there. russia has announced a temporary ceasefire for a few hours each day to let them escape. ukrainians say they want the same thing. translation: we hope . to continue rescuing people from azovstal, from mariupol. there are still civilians left there. women, children. to save them, we need to continue the ceasefire. we are ready to take part. it willjust take time to lift people out of those basements, out of those underground shelters. late last night, a group of evacuees did arrive in the town of zaporizhzhia, but they were from the wider city, not the besieged steelworks. if the plant does fall, that will mean all of mariupol is under russian control.

as well as giving president putin something to call a victory, it will free up thousands of russian forces to take part in the assault on the donbas. so far, progress south is reported to be very slow and uneven, while movement north has been paused altogether. that could be because the donbas is where many of ukraine's best trained and most experienced soldiers are based, and they're digging in. but this war isn'tjust taking place on the ground in the east. yesterday russia hit a crucial crossing over the dnieper river. it followed strikes today before here in lviv, where they targeted three electrical substations. they're trying to take out ukraine's rail network, and stop the flow of weapons from the west to the east. but it's not all going one way. ukraine is said to have destroyed this huge russian oil depot in occupied donetsk. this war is as much about logistics as anything else, and both sides are drawing blood. joe inwood, bbc news, lviv.

0n the frontlines of the war, thousands of people remain trapped in horrifying conditions. in the donbas region, rescue operations to free them are led by volunteers, who are taking enormous risks. 0ur correspondent, andrew harding, has been hearing from some of those volunteers and the people whose lives they've saved. they sit in stunned silence on the school bus thatjust rescued them from hell. still weary with terror. two other buses with them did not make it back. "it was so scary," is all she can manage to say. thousands here are running the russian gauntlet, trying to escape from the kremlin's new offensive in eastern ukraine. but imagine escaping this, and then going back in again and again. that is what a group

of remarkable volunteers are doing here in the donbas, including the man who filmed this. a british maths teacher, guy 0sborn, who came out last month to lend a hand. we have been going quite close to the front and evacuating huddled, bedridden people, a couple of blind people, people with zimmer frames. it is quite a risk you're taking. i am quite scared most of the time. who wouldn't be? explosions. this footage was filmed by the driver of another school bus, one of the two that went missing. mikhail pankov is a local history teacher. last friday, he left for a rescue mission and never came back. then, a surprise announcement on russian television. mikhail has been captured alive.

then another surprise. while we are speaking to his wife, yulia, her phone rings. it is her husband — still held captive, but calling with important news. "he spoke about a prisoner exchange," she says. "my husband said the russians might swap him for prisoners held by our government. "soon, i hope. "so maybe everything will work out." perhaps it will. but for others still trapped in the town of popasna, no help at hand. this is as close as we can get to the town right now. you can hear the boom of artillery in the distance and some shells landing the other side of this field. we have been told all rescue efforts have now been suspended because of the danger, but that still leaves something like 2,000 civilians trapped in this town, and, we are told, many more civilians caught in other frontline towns.

all evidence of a slow, grinding conflict with no end in sight. andrew harding, bbc news, in eastern ukraine. so that is the situation across ukraine. let's take you there live now and my colleague, ben brown, who is in kyiv. now and my colleague, ben brown, who is in k iv. ., , �* is in kyiv. hello. yes, hi ben, it is in kyiv. hello. yes, hi ben, it is a pretty— is in kyiv. hello. yes, hi ben, it is a pretty desperate _ is in kyiv. hello. yes, hi ben, it is a pretty desperate situation, | is in kyiv. hello. yes, hi ben, it. is a pretty desperate situation, in particular in mariupol, as we have been reporting throughout the day, and in the azovstal steelworks at feels like it is the end game there as the russian troops are reported to be storming the steelworks there were some 2000 ukrainian troops in about 100 civilians are holed up inside and underneath that steelworks. let's talk about what is going on with vladimir, who is a militaryjournalist and going on with vladimir, who is a military journalist and works for ukrainian television here and here. what is your latest information and about what is happening at that

steelworks in mariupol? i am about what is happening at that steelworks in mariupol?- steelworks in mariupol? i am in touch with _ steelworks in mariupol? i am in touch with the _ steelworks in mariupol? i am in touch with the soldiers - steelworks in mariupol? i am in i touch with the soldiers downstairs in the _ touch with the soldiers downstairs in the as— touch with the soldiers downstairs in the as of— touch with the soldiers downstairs in the as of style steelworks in mariupol— in the as of style steelworks in mariupol and from what i have heard this morning, the ukrainian soldiers are stitt— this morning, the ukrainian soldiers are still fighting back and the russian — are still fighting back and the russian army aims to gain control of the whole _ russian army aims to gain control of the whole factory, but there are still a _ the whole factory, but there are still a few — the whole factory, but there are still a few hundred civilians downstairs that are simply trying to survive _ downstairs that are simply trying to survive because what we know, they lack food _ survive because what we know, they lack food supplies, they lack freshwater, there is no electricity or anything to keep up the basics of everyday— or anything to keep up the basics of everyday life and also another humanitarian aspect there, that the russians— humanitarian aspect there, that the russians wouldn't let anyone evacuate the dead bodies of the ukrainian — evacuate the dead bodies of the ukrainian soldiers or evacuate the wounded~ — ukrainian soldiers or evacuate the wounded. the ukrainian soldiers or evacuate the wounded. , , ., , ., , wounded. the russians are denying there is any — wounded. the russians are denying there is any sort _ wounded. the russians are denying there is any sort of— wounded. the russians are denying there is any sort of assault - wounded. the russians are denying there is any sort of assault on - there is any sort of assault on azovstal, they say they are not doing that. azovstal, they say they are not doing that-— azovstal, they say they are not doing that. azovstal, they say they are not doinu that. ~ ., ., ., doing that. well, from what we have seen on the — doing that. well, from what we have seen on the russian _ doing that. well, from what we have seen on the russian media, - doing that. well, from what we have seen on the russian media, from - doing that. well, from what we have l seen on the russian media, from what we have _ seen on the russian media, from what we have seen— seen on the russian media, from what we have seen from the russian war correspondence, they are committing air attacks _ correspondence, they are committing air attacks on the steelworks. they

are still— air attacks on the steelworks. they are still using artillery against the soldiers being downstairs and from _ the soldiers being downstairs and from what i know, from the people being _ from what i know, from the people being there on the ground, they are fighting _ being there on the ground, they are fighting back and they cannot gain control— fighting back and they cannot gain control of— fighting back and they cannot gain control of the whole steelworks. and it is control of the whole steelworks. fific it is important, really, control of the whole steelworks. fific it is important, really, because although there are only may be a few hundred fighters left there, this is the last pockets of resistance in mariupol, the last stand by ukrainian troops there. yes, that is true and we — ukrainian troops there. yes, that is true and we need _ ukrainian troops there. yes, that is true and we need to _ ukrainian troops there. yes, that is true and we need to understand - ukrainian troops there. yes, that is| true and we need to understand that this is— true and we need to understand that this is very— true and we need to understand that this is very important strategically because _ this is very important strategically because the russians are using a lot of their— because the russians are using a lot of their manpower and they lost their— of their manpower and they lost their artillery and aviation aircraft _ their artillery and aviation aircraft injust one spot, this little — aircraft injust one spot, this little city— aircraft injust one spot, this little city of mariupol, which in peace — little city of mariupol, which in peace time used to have half a million — peace time used to have half a million residents, this little spot on the _ million residents, this little spot on the ukrainian map is concentrating so much of their miiitary— concentrating so much of their military attention and letting the ukrainian — military attention and letting the ukrainian army fight back on other diversions — ukrainian army fight back on other diversions. find ukrainian army fight back on other diversions. �* . , diversions. and hell, generally, then, is diversions. and hell, generally, then. is the _ diversions. and hell, generally, then, is the war _ diversions. and hell, generally, then, is the war going - diversions. and hell, generally, then, is the war going at - diversions. and hell, generally, then, is the war going at the . then, is the war going at the moment? because we seem to have seen

more attacks by russia especially on infrastructure, and railways and power stations, infrastructure, and railways and powerstations, in infrastructure, and railways and power stations, in the last few days? power stations, in the last few da s? , , ., ., power stations, in the last few das? , , ., ., days? yes, the situation across the country has — days? yes, the situation across the country has deteriorated, _ days? yes, the situation across the country has deteriorated, as - days? yes, the situation across the country has deteriorated, as the i country has deteriorated, as the russians— country has deteriorated, as the russians team seem to be using more and more _ russians team seem to be using more and more air— russians team seem to be using more and more air attacks on civilian infrastructure such as railways and power _ infrastructure such as railways and power plants and fuel storage is also the — power plants and fuel storage is also the situation, the humanitarian situation _ also the situation, the humanitarian situation is — also the situation, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating in the east _ situation is deteriorating in the east of— situation is deteriorating in the east of the country, where they are trying _ east of the country, where they are trying to— east of the country, where they are trying to do— east of the country, where they are trying to do an offensive from the luhansk— trying to do an offensive from the luhansk region to encircle the ukrainian _ luhansk region to encircle the ukrainian army and to separate them, the ukrainian army who is fighting in the _ the ukrainian army who is fighting in the donetsk region, sojust trying — in the donetsk region, sojust trying to— in the donetsk region, sojust trying to make this what you call a cattle _ trying to make this what you call a cattle in _ trying to make this what you call a cattle in military terms. also they are trying — cattle in military terms. also they are trying to gain control over kharkiv, — are trying to gain control over kharkiv, but the ukrainian army has so far— kharkiv, but the ukrainian army has so far managed to do this pretty is successful— so far managed to do this pretty is successful counter offensive and regained — successful counter offensive and regained control of a few villages around _ regained control of a few villages around the city. gk, regained control of a few villages around the city.— regained control of a few villages around the city. 0k, vladimir from

ukrainian military _ around the city. 0k, vladimir from ukrainian militaryjournalism, - around the city. 0k, vladimir from | ukrainian militaryjournalism, thank ukrainian military journalism, thank you ukrainian militaryjournalism, thank you very much for that latest picture from here. back to you in the studio in london.— picture from here. back to you in the studio in london. thanks very much, the studio in london. thanks very much. ben. _ the studio in london. thanks very much, ben, and— the studio in london. thanks very much, ben, and we'll— the studio in london. thanks very much, ben, and we'll be - the studio in london. thanks very much, ben, and we'll be back- the studio in london. thanks very much, ben, and we'll be back to l the studio in london. thanks very i much, ben, and we'll be back to you later, but for now thank you. let's bring you up—to—date with some of the other stories today... the world health organization estimates that 15 million excess deaths occured globally due to the covid pandemic. the figure suggests many more people died than would have been expected based on previous years' death rates. the who believes many countries undercounted the numbers who died from covid — as our global health correspondent, naomi grimley, reports. in the global chaos of covid... ..makeshift funeral pyres and hasty burials around the world have become all too familiar. but have some countries under—counted the number of lives lost to the pandemic? translation: 5096 of deaths are not registered by - the government as covid—19. our ngo brings bodies to be cremated

directly from homes or victims. the government only counts related deaths of victims who die in a hospital. the world health organization asked a panel of international experts to calculate the global death toll due to the crisis. in the first two years of the pandemic, worldwide, it was thought around 5.5 million people died from covid. but because of patchy testing, poor record—keeping in some parts of the world, and the fact that some people died of non—covid causes during lockdowns, the world health organization now thinks that figure might be more like 15 million. it's a tragedy. this is a staggering number. and it's important for us to honour the lives that are lost, and we have to hold the policymakers accountable, also. and if we don't count,

we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. some countries stand out. the estimate for excess deaths in russia is three and a half times its official count. in india, the who believes deaths were ten times what was recorded, though delhi has disputed the calculations. in africa, countries like somalia only had sketchy data, so the experts admit there is a lot of uncertainty about how many may have died. urgently, we need better data collection systems. it's a disgrace that people can be born and die and we have no record of their passing. so we really need to invest in countries' registration systems, so we can get accurate and timely data. this report confirms that places such as the us, britain, spain and germany all had excess mortality rates above the global average in this crisis.

a reminder that the pandemic was tough, even for the wealthiest countries on the planet. naomi grimley, bbc news. let's speak to professor devi sridhar who's chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh. professor devi sridhar, welcome to bbc news. i was really taken by the numbers. the reported figure is 5.5 million excess deaths, the who says it is 15 million. that is a huge difference. it it is 15 million. that is a huge difference-— it is 15 million. that is a huge difference. , , ., , difference. it is, so the estimates from the who — difference. it is, so the estimates from the who actually _ difference. it is, so the estimates from the who actually look - difference. it is, so the estimates from the who actually look at - difference. it is, so the estimates i from the who actually look at what were deaths in the pre—pandemic times and based on that what we would expect in 2020 and 2021 and actually, how many deaths had happened that are due directly to covid—19 orfrom happened that are due directly to covid—19 or from other causes where people could not get care because covid was taking up health care resources. covid was taking up health care resources-— covid was taking up health care resources. ., , ., ~ resources. there are some stark differences _ resources. there are some stark differences as — resources. there are some stark differences as well, _ resources. there are some stark differences as well, in _ resources. there are some stark differences as well, in which - differences as well, in which countries were seemingly underreporting, india for example, ten times. what does that tell us

about the global response to this pandemic? i about the global response to this andemic? ~ ., ., , pandemic? i think what we are first seeinr is pandemic? i think what we are first seeing is because _ pandemic? i think what we are first seeing is because they _ pandemic? i think what we are first seeing is because they have - pandemic? i think what we are first seeing is because they have been l seeing is because they have been comparisons across countries in terms of death rates, politicians are keen for them to look lower because then they can say we have done better, where i think scientists in the who are keen to have an accurate estimate of how many people have suffered because of this pandemic, and i think what we have to think is how many can we prevent going into the future, how can we get vaccines to all parts of the world? and we know there are still major vaccine inequalities between places giving forth boosters and places in the world which are still trying to give out first doses, so i think that is really where we should be spending energy, so if we look at 2022 many of these deaths could be prevented going to be future. , ., , , ., be future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to _ be future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to ask _ be future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to ask you _ be future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to ask you about - be future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to ask you about that i be future. yes, absolutely and i - wanted to ask you about that about what this may tell us and what we may learn and perhaps how damaging it is because we don't actually get a true picture of this and quite how devastating this was. yes. a true picture of this and quite how devastating this was.— a true picture of this and quite how devastating this was. yes, they say in ublic devastating this was. yes, they say in public health _ devastating this was. yes, they say in public health if— devastating this was. yes, they say in public health if you _ devastating this was. yes, they say in public health if you don't -

devastating this was. yes, they say in public health if you don't count i in public health if you don't count it, then it doesn't matter and what we're trying to do is put numbers this and so that we can see that each life matters, how this can be prevented and how we can do better next time. this isn't over in all parts of the world. how do we try to save more lives going forward and avoid this major death toll? it is worth saying a lot of people die from the flu, but in an average year flue gas are around 6000 globally, so we can see covid—19 is a much more serious event and really be major pandemic since 1918. yes. more serious event and really be major pandemic since 1918. ma'or pandemic since 1918. yes, and i major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where _ major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where uk _ major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where uk fits _ major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where uk fits into - major pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where uk fits into this - i wonder where uk fits into this global picture as well and what it tells us about our response to this crisis? the because there was a lot of criticism of whether we focus on specific numbers and death tolls and infection rates, but that was so important in being able to monitor the spread of this crisis. yes. important in being able to monitor the spread of this crisis.— the spread of this crisis. yes, i think it was — the spread of this crisis. yes, i think it was very _ the spread of this crisis. yes, i think it was very important - the spread of this crisis. yes, i think it was very important to l the spread of this crisis. yes, i - think it was very important to have surveillance and before we had widespread vaccination, testing was actually our main tool to break the chains of transmission and make sure

we're not having infection spreading, so to get a wave of infections without vaccines is absolutely devastating, as we saw the first and second waves, so i think right now what we have to look at is could the uk do better forward? the other thing is if the same thing were to happen again, what measures could be put in place to protect those who are most vulnerable, the elderly and those with underlying health issues, the real issues aids is with the nhs is making sure there is investment in the staff, we are all burnt out, but also making sure the resources of their concert, so care can be provided for all conditions, because we know some of the other issues have been delayed cancer diagnoses, which have been affecting many people's lives, but the issue is the nhs needs more resources and is very limited right now. it is nhs needs more resources and is very limited right now.— limited right now. it is really good to have your _ limited right now. it is really good to have your thoughts _ limited right now. it is really good to have your thoughts on - limited right now. it is really good to have your thoughts on this. - limited right now. it is really good to have your thoughts on this. it l limited right now. it is really good| to have your thoughts on this. it is a really interesting study. professor devi sridhar, chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh, thank you. thank you. buckingham palace says the queen

will miss this season's royal garden parties. a spokesman says she'll be represented by other members of the royal family. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen. good afternoon. the warm sunshine will continue for many parts of england and wales and perhaps a little for the east of scotland and northern ireland, but we have weather fronts further west pushing in thick cloud, some rain and the odd shower elsewhere, perhaps across the eastern side of wales and into the eastern side of wales and into the midlands, but with more sunshine generally today a bit warmer more widely, the high teens, perhaps even 20s in a few spots. overnight it will stay mild because in the south we will see patchy low cloud and in the north that weather front really taking shape, heavy rain overnight in parts of scotland, northern ireland and that will work its way in friday morning into the north of england as well. any bits of mist clearing away, a bit misty around the coasts, added turn wetter for parts of northern england, but drier for the south and northern scotland and in sunshine we could realise 18

degrees here as well and warm in the south, keeping sunshine, a bit cooler tomorrow for northern england and north wales. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines... interest rates rise to 1%, their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months

of this year, its highest ever quarterly figure. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19. and scientist monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s. sport now and a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre. here's isaac. good afternoon. pep guardiola said his manchester city side will have to process their collapse in spain as they conceeded two goals in injury time and then another, five minutes into extra time to lose

the champions league semi—final to real madrid. it was one of the most stunning results in the competition's history and olly foster was there. this is going to hurt manchester city, the night a champions league final didn'tjust slip away, but was ripped from their grasp. real madrid with a come back to rival any in the history of this competition. it's tough for us, we cannot deny it. we were so close to the champions league final, yet unfortunately we could not, you could not finish when we are close. city only needed a draw in madrid when riyad mahrez lashed in aat goal with 20 minutes left to play — that would surely see them through. jack grealish was so close to another — not to worry, time was almost up. there's always time. in the final minute, the real substitute rodrygo gave them hope. a minute later, bedlam in the bernabeu. the brazilian again. extra time then, and a penalty, karim benzema fouled by dias. the frenchman was the coolest

of the 60,000 who would party long into the madrid night. but what of city? pep guardiola must make sure this crushing defeat doesn't derail their premier league defence. guillem balague's followed his fellow spaniard's carreerfrom the start, and spoke to him last night. careerfrom the start, and spoke to him last night. when everybody is down here, and they were on the floor, you saw the players, they were, some of them crying as well. he has to be here, and he has to be saying, "now we just have to focus at the job in hand." city's wait for a first champions league title goes on. real will be chasing a 14th. their last came four years ago, against liverpool. the rematch in paris could be very special, but what happened here last night will take some beating. olly foster, bbc news, madrid. it doesn't stop in europe, as the british sides in the europa league look to do better than city. both are up against it. a goal down. it'll be loud at ibrox as rangers look to overturn a 1—0 first leg semi—final deficit against german

side rb leipzig. west ham will face an equally raucous crowd as they head to eintract frankfurt having lost 2—1 at the london stadium last week. if they can change things in germany, it'll be a first european final for the hammers since 1976. if they can change things in germany, it'll be a first european final for the hammers since 1976. if you get to the semifinal of a european competition, it is huge for anybody. so big for me as well, i want to take the team to the final, i am preparing the team to go to the final, we believe that if we get it right, we can do so. so we have to manage that and the players are in the same place as i am. we know frankfurt are in front and we have a bit to do. and it's also the semifinals of the inaugural europa conference league. leicester city are in the italian capital to face jose mourinho's roma. the tie is level at 1—1 after last weeks game at the king power stadium.

this is another chapter in the story. so for us, our main objective is to just keep the story of this club going and let's see, like we did in the fa cup. you know, we wanted to be the winners for the first time and it's clearly an objective for us in this competition as well. can we pick up a first piece of silverware in europe? in tennis dan evans was knocked out of the madrid open in straight sets by andrey rublev. the british number two had his chances. he broke rublev in the opening game of the match and then had set point in the tie break but couldn't capitalize losing the opening set. rublev took the second set 7—5 to win in just under 2 hour 30 minutes earlier, andy murray pulled out of his match against novak djokovic in the third round through illness. murray was going into the match in good form, having already knocked out 2020 us open champion dominic thiem and canada's denis shapovalov.

that's all the sport for now. a bbc investigation has found scammers have set up hundreds of fake charity websites to profit from the war in ukraine. some of the sites steal details from real charities, including a video and logo from save the children. it says the criminals behind the scams are stealing from donors and the vulnerable people the charities are trying to help. angus crawford reports. out of war, chaos. ukrainian refugees needing shelter and safety. feeding off the destruction, fake charity websites appearing all over the internet. take this one. it looks professional. the only problem is, it's fake. there is no charity registration number, and as for the address of the head office, it doesn't even exist. but there is a phone number. i just wanted to ask you a quick question about what the money's

been spent on. there are many refugees, so forfood, clothes, travel. how long have you been going as a charity? so, he's hung up on me, and like many of these sites, most of the sites, there is no evidence at all that any of the money is actually getting to ukraine. here's another. it's stolen the logo of save the children, and one of their videos. so, does this make you angry? yes, absolutely does. we've got the generosity of the british public, which is being taken advantage of, but then there's also the children that we work with around the world, who are not going to get the support they need because money is being taken away from the genuine good cause. that's shameful, isn't it? it's awful, it's awful. but it's not only charities. this site copies one raising money for the ukrainian army. stealing the profiles of fighters, like tania, who gets kit to soldiers on the front line.

so, who is behind these sites? and where are they? take savelifedirect.com. it says it's raised $100,000. it's registered to this man, moussa ibrahim, who is in abuja in nigeria. beeping. it says it's raising money for ukraine. yes, exactly. but it's not, is it? it's not raising any money for ukraine. we are trying to help the ukrainians. - really? you say on your website you've already raised $100,000, and yet you're not a charity, and there's no evidence any of your money is going to ukraine. he insists he is sending donations to ukraine, but after we spoke, he took the website down.

for ukrainians, the war brings misery. for scammers, it's just another opportunity to make money. angus crawford, bbc news. the new boss of britain's biggest sports retailer, sports direct, says he's planning to open up ten new flagship stores. michael murray has taken over as chief executive of frasers group that includes house of fraser and flannels. in his first interview in the top job, he warns of cost pressures facing the business and price rises ahead. our business correspondent emma simpson reports. opening tomorrow, a new flagship store. and there's also a new man at the top. it's cost 10 million to open this store, which is a huge investment in the high street. meet michael murray, aged 32. he now has one of the biggest jobs in british retail, and he's betting big the high street. on the high street.

he wants more of these stores, with brands, e—sports and experience. do you see yourself as a moderniser, then? you could call me that. it's really about taking all different aspects of the business and making it fit for purpose and simple for the consumer to shop. but what about the founder and future father—in—law, mike ashley? is he still pulling the strings? no, mike is not pulling the strings. we have worked in a partnership, a very collaborative approach, over the last two to three years, and then from the day i became ceo, the final decision lies with me. and that includes cost pressures running high. he says there is not much he can do about price rises. in terms of the pricing of the product, we are very much at mercy to our brand partners, they decide the price they want to sell the goods for, and we will increase the prices as and when the brands ask us or recommend us to do so. how tough do you think it is going to get?

it's definitely going to get tough, but i believe we are in the right segment. i think people will spend less, but they will definitely spend on the items which they need, and which is aspirational to them. a new era for this retailer giant? there is certainly a change of image. if he doubles the share price, michael murray is in line for £100 million bonus. emma simpson, bbc news, birmingham. is spring is taking root earlier? a woodland study has found changes common to the season have moved forward by three weeks compared with the 1940s. great tit birds in whiteham woods near oxford have been laying eggs earlier than ever. scientists, who have special permission to access their nests, are blaming climate change. our science correspondent victoria gill reports. more than 500 plant species, 800 types of butterflies and moths, and in one woodland site of about a square mile, there are 1,200 specially built nest boxes.

because wytham woods, near oxford, is a very special site of scientific interest. is this officially the most studied woodland in the world, do you think? i mean, it certainly must be one of them. this year marks the 75th anniversary of the wytham great tit project. scientists have systematically monitored every chick hatched in their nest boxes here since 1947. and we are about to meet the newest generation. wow, how many are there? there are eight. that's a very standard size for a great tit. now these parents have got a lot of work to do. they have got to find about 10,000 caterpillars for these. 10,000 to get them to fledge? yeah. people are quite divided on whether they think they are cute or ugly. i think they are sort of cute—ugly. it is precisely because this has been a continuous study for all those decades that

researchers have been able to see and to measure the change in the timing of spring here. the 75 years that we have been studying the tits here, we have seen quite a marked shift in the timing of egg laying. so now they are laying about three weeks earlier. than they were in the 1940s. the tits here are actually managing to track the other members of their food chain quite well. so both the caterpillars and the oaks have also shifted their timing earlier, so the whole sort of food chain has shifted earlier in the spring. the woods were bequeathed to oxford university by a wealthy local family back in 1942. since then, they have been the site of dozens of different scientific projects. but the longest running is the great tit study, which chris perrins has been involved in for more than half a century. and what are your reflections on the seasonal shift? that is fine. unless it gets to limits where the trees, or the caterpillars, or the birds can't do that shift because it's too big. and that is still the question... that is still a big question to answer and a very interesting one.

the work here goes on. and whenever spring happens, it's a busy season for the birds and the scientists, because as our climate changes, these rare, decades—long studies that track exactly how the natural world responds become more important as time goes on. victoria gill, bbc news, wytham wood. meanwhile, a new study has found the number of flying insects has fallen by nearly 60% in less than 20 years. the figures are drawn from a survey conducted by the kent wildlife trust and the charity buglife. let's speak now to dr tilly collins. she's from the centre for environmental policy at imperial college london. good to see you, thanks to being with us. 60% in 20 years or less then 20 years, it seems that the dramatic fall. why should we be worried by this? it is dramatic fall. why should we be worried by this?— worried by this? it is a dramatic fall and we _ worried by this? it is a dramatic fall and we need _ worried by this? it is a dramatic fall and we need to _ worried by this? it is a dramatic fall and we need to be - worried by this? it is a dramatic fall and we need to be very - worried by this? it is a dramatic . fall and we need to be very worried about this, because looking at your

previous article, insects are incredible important parts of food webs. in the countryside, and we really need them to underpin the vertebrate biodiversity, to feed chicks. we need insects doing many things in error countryside. tail: chicks. we need insects doing many things in error countryside.- things in error countryside. talk to me about their _ things in error countryside. talk to me about their importance - things in error countryside. talk to me about their importance in - things in error countryside. talk to me about their importance in the i me about their importance in the food chain. they are hugely significant, aren't they? they are. the feed significant, aren't they? they are. they feed the _ significant, aren't they? they are. they feed the chicks _ significant, aren't they? they are. they feed the chicks and - significant, aren't they? they are. they feed the chicks and the - significant, aren't they? they are. they feed the chicks and the birds in the countryside. they feed other insects but they also do things for us in the soil. so it is notjust that they are part of the food system. but they physically do things for us, they help us biodegrade animal to in the countryside. they do many, many things that make nature —based ecosystem processes work. find things that make nature -based ecosystem processes work. and these headune ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures _ ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures show _ ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures show us _ ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures show us that - ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures show us that to - headline figures show us that to matic figure, but is it across—the—board or are we seeing biggerfalls on certain across—the—board or are we seeing bigger falls on certain types of

insects and i guess, if so, why are certain insects more badly affected than others? this certain insects more badly affected than others?— than others? this some types are more specifically _ than others? this some types are more specifically vulnerable, - than others? this some types are| more specifically vulnerable, they may be rare, have small populations, but in many situations, it is beneficial insects that are suffering the most and that is largely because of our agricultural systems. if you plant a monocultural field, very few insects thrived in that situation. but the ones that do, the pest insects do well, but the ones that we really want do less well. ., ., well. tell me a little about the ones that _ well. tell me a little about the ones that we _ well. tell me a little about the ones that we do _ well. tell me a little about the ones that we do want - well. tell me a little about the ones that we do want and - well. tell me a little about the ones that we do want and this | well. tell me a little about the - ones that we do want and this may show my annoyance but i'm looking at some new board behind you, i can spot a ladybird, a a moth? i cannot see the fourth one. it is spot a ladybird, a a moth? i cannot see the fourth one.— see the fourth one. it is kind of a mos: uito see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito fly- _ see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito fly. are _ see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito fly. are those - see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito fly. are those the - see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito fly. are those the sort| see the fourth one. it is kind of a i mosquito fly. are those the sort of insects we need _ mosquito fly. are those the sort of insects we need more _ mosquito fly. are those the sort of insects we need more of? - mosquito fly. are those the sort of insects we need more of? we - mosquito fly. are those the sort of| insects we need more of? we need more of all — insects we need more of? we need more of all kinds _ insects we need more of? we need more of all kinds of _ insects we need more of? we need more of all kinds of insects. -

insects we need more of? we need| more of all kinds of insects. people often underestimate how many insects there are. there are probably a million species of insects that we have identified and potentially many more out there that we don't know about. whereas for vertebrates, vertebrate species, there are many fewer, to a good approximation, all animals are in fact insects. what animals are in fact insects. what should we _ animals are in fact insects. what should we be — animals are in fact insects. what should we be doing _ animals are in fact insects. what should we be doing to _ animals are in fact insects. what should we be doing to make - animals are in fact insects. what should we be doing to make sure we provide habitats that are welcoming? if it's just a case of planting flower in the garden, what should we plant, where and how? is us response from agriculture and the bigger industry too?— industry too? yes, it's really important — industry too? yes, it's really important we _ industry too? yes, it's really important we do _ industry too? yes, it's really important we do things - industry too? yes, it's really important we do things at i industry too? yes, it's really| important we do things at all levels, planting wild flowers, important we do things at all levels, planting wildflowers, not mowing so frequently, we need to give insects a chance to reproduce before we start to cut things down. we need to put biodiversity into our urban areas and put it back into the countryside. we need agricultural

programmes that support that, and also farming systems where people are taught more about it, the dominant paradigms that you spray everything and it will be the best, is fading away now, we're beginning to the standard biodiversity brings many things including natural pest control. lots of predatory insects have been eliminated by farming but we need those to do the jobs of reducing the tests so we can reduce the pesticides. is reducing the tests so we can reduce the pesticides-— the pesticides. is less about education? _ the pesticides. is less about education? about _ the pesticides. is less about education? about seeing . the pesticides. is less about l education? about seeing bugs the pesticides. is less about - education? about seeing bugs as part of our food chain and natural world rather than pests? fler of our food chain and natural world rather than pests?— rather than pests? per is a danger we see them. _ rather than pests? per is a danger we see them, especially _ rather than pests? per is a danger we see them, especially in - rather than pests? per is a danger we see them, especially in the - we see them, especially in the summer, as we see them, especially in the summer, ., , , we see them, especially in the summer, , ., , we see them, especially in the summer, ., , , ., , ., summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us. bees— summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, bees that _ summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, bees that may _ summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, bees that may sting - summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, bees that may sting us, i summer, as flies, mosquitoes that| bite us, bees that may sting us, we have to change our perception of what is insects are able to do? yes. yes, we absolutely _ what is insects are able to do? yes. yes, we absolutely do _ what is insects are able to do? yes. yes, we absolutely do and - what is insects are able to do? iezs yes, we absolutely do and it has been a problem with research as well, that most of the research

money has gone into how to manage pests and not on how to understand how beneficial so many of them are to us and what they bring, not only to us and what they bring, not only to us, but to the ecosystems on which we depend. they certainly need a good pr. and we need to get used to not going... whenever an insect appears. to not going... whenever an insect a- ears. ., . to not going... whenever an insect auears. ., . ., to not going... whenever an insect auears. ., ., ., to not going... whenever an insect auears. ., . ., appears. you have done some good pr for them this — appears. you have done some good pr for them this afternoon, _ appears. you have done some good pr for them this afternoon, thank - appears. you have done some good pr for them this afternoon, thank you - for them this afternoon, thank you for them this afternoon, thank you for being with us. thank you for your pictures on the whiteboard. mr; your pictures on the whiteboard. ij�*i pleasure. the headlines on bbc news... interest rates rise to 1%, their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths globally, according to new research by the world health organization.

bill gates has urged world leaders to do more to prevent future pandemics. the microsoft co—founder is calling for greater sharing of information and a faster response to prevent global disease outbreaks happening again. he's been speaking to mishal husain. she asked him how ready we should be for another pandemic. well, the risk is there every year, and definitely going up as people travel around the world more, as climate change causes species to seek new habitats and as population growth, particularly in asia and africa, means we are invading more natural habitats. it's very unlikely that we will go 20 more years without another outbreak that has a chance

of becoming a global pandemic. which is sobering, and which is a hard thing to think about, at a point psychologically when there is a joy to getting back to the things that we couldn't do for such a long period, but you essentially want us all to think about preparing for the next one, which is kind of a tough ask at a time like this. oh, definitely, and this pandemic is not completely over. we could have a surprise variant. i don't think that is high probability, but yes, people are ready for this one to end, no doubt. hopefully they keep in mind how awful it has been, so we take the reasonably modest measures that are required to reduce the chance of it happening again. which are spending on practice, on modelling, on proper active preparedness. yes, practice would be key, and having a dedicated team that helps manage that practice and makes sure that every little outbreak gets a quick investigation,

including genetic sequencing, so we can understand, is this a respiratory virus that is threatening to become another covid? covid itself, the thing you just hinted at, i think you are saying it is possible that the worst is even yet to come if we get a new, more dangerous variant than what we have seen? not likely. we have a lot of immunity. the variant escapes some of that immunity. particularly if we get the elderly to keep up to date on boosters, then the amount of severe disease and death is dramatically less. so we can't completely ignore this pandemic, but we do not yet have the tools where you take the vaccine once and you are protected for life and it stops you getting infected. that is the kind of tool that we need to really put this behind us and for future pandemics.

do you think any of the preparedness you would like to see is really going on as you look around the world now? the idea of building a global group, that i call germ, for global economic response and mobilisation, at the who level, there is not yet a consensus, but the debate is beginning, and my book, i think, will help kick off the debate. i would love to see in the next year that funded, because the cost is pretty small, yet that is the central group that will make sure that we practice and have dramatically less impact. what did you think about novak djokovic saying that he was not vaccinated because it is essentially about his freedom of choice on the choice of what he puts in his body?

i wonder if you think when someone is in the public eye, is there a wider responsibility than just your own body? being vaccinated helps the community you are in. they're not perfect at blocking infection, but they do reduce infection. it's concerning someone's health concerns are so extreme that they feel they cannot participate in that community protection. if they are an inspiration and trusted person, then they are spreading that, and itjust makes it tougher to get the vaccination levels that we really need. so i admire him in a lot of ways, but i wish his views on vaccines weren't that way. on you personally, you have had a big change in your life in the last year with the end of your marriage. how has that affected you?

well, my life is very different. my kids are gone from the house, the last one left for college a year ago. the divorce is a big change. although there is one part of my relationship that i treasure a great deal, which is our work together at the foundation, and that continues, and i'm very happy with that. the divorce was very hard. it was a tough year. this year is a lot more upbeat. she seemed to have seen something injeffrey epstein on the occasion that she met him that you didn't in your meetings with him. is that right? she said that she met him once and as soon as she walked in the door, she felt he was abhorrent and evil personified. i made a mistake ever meeting with jeffrey epstein. maybe her instincts on that were keener than mine,

but any meeting i had with him could be viewed as almost condoning his evil behaviour. so, you know, that was a mistake. bill gates, thank you very much. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen. good afternoon. it's a tale of two halves. we have got some warm sunshine across many parts of england and wales, under the building high pressure, these highs moving in, but further north, we do have some weather fronts, they are bringing some patchy rain, particularly to scotland. for northern ireland, i think it may well brighten up for a time, the east of the grampians as well. for england and wales, we have got a little bit of fairweather cloud that has built up during the course of the day and the shower around as possible, particularly in western and southern areas, perhaps the midlands. the odd one further east, but very isolated, warmer more generally than yesterday, even with some brightness across eastern scotland and northern ireland. but it is where we see the more prolonged sunshine where the highest levels of pollen are, again, mostly tree pollen, but grass pollen is starting to take effect as well now.

so, some sunshine continuing for a time through this evening and overnight there is clear skies, a little bit of mistiness in, but mostly around southern and western coasts, perhaps thick enough for some drizzle, this is where the more significant rain is, but it is mild across—the—board and that weather front really does take shape as we go through the night, some really quite wet weather for parts of southern and western scotland and northern ireland for a time. it is still with us to start the day friday, some brightness initially and some sunshine in southern and eastern areas and sunshine will return across scotland and northern england, for northern and western wales, a much cloudier and potentially wetter day than today, still warm where we keep the sunshine in the south and warmer to the north of that weather front across the east of scotland once again. now, that weather front will move out the way, we think, by the start of the weekend, as that high pressure, that azores high, once again re—establishes itself, bringing some warmer air in from the south and keeping our weather front at bay. not wall—to—wall sunshine, there still will be the odd shower around, as you can see from some of the thicker cloud mulling around under our area of high pressure, but for most, saturday looks like a reasonable day, some early morning mistiness too, but dry and quite warm in the sunshine, but obviously where we do have some onshore cloud,

it will be a little bit cooler. now, come sunday, we start to see the influence of the atlantic pushing into the northern ireland, the western isles, perhaps the highlands of scotland and eventually northern ireland, but for many parts again, it is a dry, reasonably bright day and it will feel warm where the sun comes out. as ever, there is plenty more detail on the website.

this is bbc news. i'm ben thompson. the headlines: interest rates rise to 1%, their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. profits at energy giant, shell, almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year — its highest ever quarterly figure. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19. if you don't count it, then it doesn't matter and i think

here what we are trying to do is to put numbers to this, so that we can see that each life matters, how many of these deaths could have been prevented, how do we do better next time? and scientists monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s. hello to you, welcome to bbc news. it is just after hello to you, welcome to bbc news. it isjust after 3pm. the bank of england has increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking them to 1%, as it tries to slow the rise in prices. it predicts inflation will rise to more than 10% this year — the highest rate since 1982. in a gloomy assessment, the bank has also forecast the economy will contract next year, leaving the uk facing a period

of so—called stagflation — when prices rise quickly, but economic growth is slow. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. the global economy reopening after a pandemic and a war in ukraine — don't ask what that has got to do with the price of cheese. the answer is...everything. prices are going up weekly, you know? milk prices have gone up vastly in the last three or four months, butter is going up £5 a case, and then it has gone up another £5 a case. which... ok, it is good forfarmers, they are getting a decent price for their milk. but the knock—on effect is it is costing more to produce. because the electric costs have gone up, feed costs have gone up, fertiliser has gone up. so it is just a vicious circle at the moment. the inflation is global, and so was the reaction, with the us central bank, the federal reserve, hiking rates faster than they have in 22 years. inflation is much too

high, and we understand the hardship it is causing. and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down. today, the bank of england raised interest rates for the fourth time in a row, the first time that has happened since 2007. global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply in the build up intensified sharply in the build—up to and following the invasion. this has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world growth. this is what the bank of england's official interest rate is now, the highest in 13 years. but not very high because for the last 13 years they have been at emergency rates. look at the historic average for the bank of england's rate, 7.2%. then if you look at the highest it has been, in 1979, 17%. interest rates when inflation was last this high, 30 years ago, were nearly 10%. but economists don't think today's still super—low rates will get anywhere near that. markets are expecting

the interest rate to reach 2.5% by the end of this year, which we think is probably too high. raising interest rates is meant to cool down the economy by making it more expensive to borrow cash to spend or invest. but in the streets outside the shop in central nottingham, businesses are already struggling with tight consumer purse strings. we are going to give it this year to see if it picks up any. if not, then... you are going to give up? i am going to think twice, i can't keep living on my savings. the risk in the coming months is that we go through the worst inflation in decades in the midst of a sharp economic slowdown. if higher interest rates are meant to put consumers off spending, soaring energy bills may have already done thatjob. andy verity, bbc news. let's speak to simon french, who's chief economist at the investment bank panmure gordon. nice to see you, simon. look, this is the fourth rate rise since

december, the bank of england is trying to keep a lid on rising prices, isn't it? i suppose the question is is this enough or will we see further rises?— question is is this enough or will we see further rises? what was very clear from the _ we see further rises? what was very clear from the press _ we see further rises? what was very clear from the press conference, - clear from the press conference, actually, given by the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey, is that he thinks a lot of the increases in costs that your viewers are seeing daily in the supermarkets in the shops, online are actually going to bring inflation down in and of itself and that package, speaking to shoppers i think in nottingham, talks to the fact that already there is some weakness, so actually when fed into the bank of england's forecast it sees inflation actually undershooting 2% in three years' time. there is a lot of economic news and journey to travel before we get there, but certainly interest rates are not going to be the whole part of getting the economy back to a level of prices we are used to. and the bank of england has quite a sort of balancing act to play here,

doesn't it? it is about holding their nerve because whatever they do now, we won't really see the effects of 46, 12 or 18 months. it takes time for that to change our spending and saving habits. so i wonder how far ahead they are looking, when we are seeing predictions that inflation could hit more than 10%? it is going to be an uncomfortable few months because, as you say, their new forecast sees inflation to a 10% increase to energy price tariffs in october. i think what was perhaps missing from the forecast was do we think the government is going to sit by idly if the energy prices go up another 14% for households? i don't think they are, but yet the forecast predicts that, so when the problems you are alluding to in your question is the forecast looks a year, two or three years ahead, but actually we may have a very different set of policies from the treasury and

certainly a very different wholesale gas and energy prices than we once we are facing today as they make these decisions. . these decisions. we we are facing today as they make these decisions.— we are facing today as they make these decisions. we often talk about normalisin: these decisions. we often talk about normalising rates, _ these decisions. we often talk about normalising rates, the _ these decisions. we often talk about normalising rates, the idea - these decisions. we often talk about normalising rates, the idea that - normalising rates, the idea that rates will come back to something we are a bit more familiar with. is the problem that we have just got so used to interest rates being so low. along? after the financial crisis of 2008 they were slashed and they never really went back up, did they? well, certainly, a whole generation, certainly 13 or 15 years worth of borrowers who, for some, have never seen interest rates at the level we seen interest rates at the level we see today. now, it has to be said, other things that happened in the debt markets over the last decade of also that are relevant in terms of helping ourselves. 80% of mortgage rates are now on a fixed rate, so there is rates of mortgages are not going to be passed through instantaneously, but you're absolutely right to say what is normal in this economy? well, i would say that even in an economy where growth is less a problem that is going to be in the uk, and we

look to the us for their interest rates decision last night, actually their central bank only see interest rates on top of the cycle at about 3%, so some of your viewers who may be used to double digit interest rates, i think even in this inflation environment they are unlikely to see them in the cycle. yes, and do something we will all see the impact of at some stage. some, thanks so much. simon french there at the investment bank, panmure gordon. staying with business... the energy giant, shell, has announced its highest ever quarterly profits. the company made nearly £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year. that's a three—fold increase on the same period in 2021. earlier our business editor, simonjack, explained what was behind the rise in profits. increased costs of things like oil, gas, which have filtered through to petrol and our heating bills meant that companies like shell, as bp did earlier this week, have made bumper profits. we saw oil, crude oil prices, already high at the end of

last year, gas prices already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged from a covid—related coma, if you like, were amplified by the russian invasion of ukraine, people worried that supplies from the world's second biggest oil exporter, the world's biggest gas exporter would be either shut off or boycotted, sent this international bidding war for prices, which means that they have made more money than they ever have in their 115 year history. as for what they are going to do with it, they are going to give a lot of money to their shareholders — £4.5 billion this quarter, £4.5 billion the next — which includes, by the way, millions of pension savers. they are also pledging to invest between them, bp and shell, over £40 billion in energy infrastructure over the next 7—10 years and that will be, you know, people will be watching very closely to make sure they fulfil those commitments. that his simon jack, that his simonjack, our business

editor, there. just a couple of lines of breaking news to bring you in relation to the mother of baby p. you may remember this case. it dates back to 2007. the mother, tracey connelly, of baby p, he died after months of abuse. she could be now to read from prison, after the parole board rejected a challenge against its ruling to release her. now, she was jailed back in 2009 for causing or allowing the death of baby p, her 17—month—old son, peter. that was at their home in tottenham in north london back in 2007. now, there had been a request to re—examine the decision to release her, but that has now been rejected, so she could now be out ofjail within weeks after that bid to keep her behind bars for longer was rejected. it was a decision from the parole board,

who have rejected that challenge to keep her in prison for longer. that case dating back to 2007 and the death of her son, peter, atjust 17 months old. voters have been heading to the polls today to have their say in a host of elections across the uk. in england, 146 councils are holding elections — including in major cities like sheffield, birmingham and london. in scotland and wales, all council areas are holding elections and in northern ireland people have been voting to elect the 90 mlas that sit in the northern ireland assembly. for full details of the elections in your area, go to the bbc news website. in the politics section, you can enter your postcode and get all the details. that's all at bbc.co.uk/news. and there's full coverage of the results here on bbc news from 11:40 tonight with huw edwards and more across bbc news tomorrow, and through the weekend.

let's ta ke let's take you to be events in ukraine now because... ukrainian officials say they have seen few signs of the ceasefire that russia said it was implementing at the besieged steel plant in the city of mariupol. the kremlin insists humanitarian corridors are in place at the azovstal plant, where ukrainian fighters and some 200 civilians are trapped. ukraine says russian troops have tried to storm the works, which moscow denies. my colleague, ben brown, is in the capital, kyiv. it looks like it might be the end game at the steelworks. ukraine says russian forces have launched an all—out assault on that steelworks in the city of mariupol. around 200 civilians are still thought to be sheltering inside. 30 children amongst them and 2,000 troops.

ukrainian commander in charge of those troops is saying that russian troops have now entered the plant, as they try to crush the last pocket of resistance in the city of mariupol. russia i should say is denying that there is any assault on the steel plant and in fact a saying there is a three—day corridor for civilians to be evacuated from there. our correspondent, joe inwood, reports. we could be entering the last days of the battle for mariupol. the azovstal steelworks, where ukrainian fighters are making theirfinal stand, has been pounded from above for days. now it seems the assault from the ground is under way. translation: it's already - the second day since the enemy broke into the plant. there are heavy, bloody battles. i am proud of my soldiers, who are making superhuman efforts to contain the pressure of the enemy. the situation is extremely difficult, but no matter what, we continue to carry out the order to hold the defence. in short, the fight for azovstal will be a fight to the death.

but it's notjust ukrainian soldiers stuck in the sprawling tunnels and nuclear bunkers of this huge complex. more than 200 civilians are also thought to be sheltering there. russia has announced a temporary ceasefire for a few hours each day to let them escape. ukrainians say they want the same thing. translation: we hope . to continue rescuing people from azovstal, from mariupol. there are still civilians left there. women, children. to save them, we need to continue the ceasefire. we are ready to take part. it willjust take time to lift people out of those basements, out of those underground shelters. late last night, a group of evacuees did arrive in the town of zaporizhzhia, but they were from the wider city, not the besieged steelworks. if the plant does fall, that will mean all of mariupol is under russian control. as well as giving president putin something to call a victory,

it will free up thousands of russian forces to take part in the assault on the donbas. so far, progress south is reported to be very slow and uneven, while movement north has been paused altogether. that could be because the donbas is where many of ukraine's best trained and most experienced soldiers are based, and they're digging in. but this war isn'tjust taking place on the ground in the east. yesterday russia hit a crucial crossing over the dnieper river. it followed strikes today before here in lviv, where they targeted it followed strikes the day before here in lviv, where they targeted three electrical substations. they're trying to take out ukraine's rail network, and stop the flow of weapons from the west to the east. but it's not all going one way. ukraine is said to have destroyed this huge russian oil depot in occupied donetsk. this war is as much about logistics as anything else, and both sides are drawing blood. joe inwood, bbc news, lviv. it is a desperate situation

for the civilians and fighters at the steel plant. nobody knows what the outcomes are going to be. including natalya zarytska, pleaded with the international community to help her husband and the other troops. we ask everybody, please act, please do something to help our people, our soldiers, our civilians. they need our help right now because the situation is really terrible and it is really... critical?— is really... critical? yes, critical- _ is really... critical? yes, critical. it _ is really... critical? yes, critical. it is _ is really... critical? yes, critical. it is really - is really... critical? yes, | critical. it is really critical riaht critical. it is really critical right now- _ critical. it is really critical

right now. they - critical. it is really critical right now. they are - critical. it is really criticalj right now. they are dying critical. it is really critical- right now. they are dying each minute. please help. the right now. they are dying each minute. please help.— right now. they are dying each minute. please help. the wife of one of those soldiers _ minute. please help. the wife of one of those soldiers there _ minute. please help. the wife of one of those soldiers there at _ minute. please help. the wife of one of those soldiers there at azovstal. l of those soldiers there at azovstal. let's talk to a ukrainian military journalist, vladimir, who is with ukrainian television here. thanks for being with us. what is your latest information about azovstal in mariupol? is theirfighting going on there at the moment? i am permanently _ there at the moment? i am permanently receiving - there at the moment? i —ii permanently receiving information from the ukrainian soldiers being still in the basement of the steelworks and from what i have heard this morning, they are still fighting. the russian military are trying to attack the remnants of the factory and trying to get in, but they are well enforced a few floors underground and they are fighting back. both sides are experiencing heavy losses. the ukrainian military, be azores battalion and the marines, they are downstairs and the marines, they are downstairs and the russian soldiers and the russian

special forces are trying to break in and clear the factory again and gain control of the whole city of mariupol. gain control of the whole city of mariu ol. �* , ., ., mariupol. and in the midst of that these civilians, _ mariupol. and in the midst of that these civilians, who _ mariupol. and in the midst of that these civilians, who are _ mariupol. and in the midst of that these civilians, who are still - these civilians, who are still there, including children? yes, the horrible situation _ there, including children? yes, the horrible situation about _ there, including children? yes, the horrible situation about it - there, including children? yes, the horrible situation about it is - there, including children? yes, the horrible situation about it is that i horrible situation about it is that there are still a few hundred people underneath, trying to survive. we do know about the evacuation, the so—called evacuation corridors and they have been working for a while. the other day they evacuated 18 masses. we were very anxious when one of the three buses manage their way to the city of sabha reacher and we were very anxious while we couldn't hear anything from the remaining people, but later on the remaining people, but later on the remaining buses arrived in zachary asia ok. what we know it is they took some of these buses to the filtration camps. they are trying to make sure there are no military personnel amongst those who are trying to evacuate from the city.

just briefly, what is the wider situation? because we see russia intensifying attacks, especially on infrastructure around this country. yes, sure because the upcoming holiday in russia, the 9th of may, which is considered to be the holiday of victory and putin has to present some victories here on the ground in ukraine, so obviously they are trying to take over the whole of the donbas and to unite the control of the so—called luhansk and donetsk republics, so they are intensifying their attacks on the luhansk side and trying to encircle the forces that are still keeping control of the towns and villages in between the towns and villages in between the donetsk and the luhansk regions and also around kharkiv. the ukrainian army has launched a few counter attacks and they have been quite successful so far, they managed to regain control of four villages around the city of kharkiv, which is a big win, considering the time frames, the short period of

time. ., ., , ., ., time. the war rages on. vladimir from ukrainian _ time. the war rages on. vladimir from ukrainian television, - time. the war rages on. vladimir from ukrainian television, thank| time. the war rages on. vladimir i from ukrainian television, thank you so much for being with us. then brown there in kyiv, and we will be back with ben just a little later in the programme. in other news... the world health organisation estimates that 15 million excess deaths occured globally due to the covid pandemic. the figure suggests many more people died than would have been expected based on previous years' death—rates. the who believes many countries undercounted the numbers who died from covid — as our global health correspondent naomi grimley reports. in the global chaos of covid... ..makeshift funeral pyres and hasty burials around the world have become all too familiar. but have some countries under—counted the number of lives lost to the pandemic? translation: 50% of deaths are not registered by - the government as covid—19.

our ngo brings bodies to be cremated directly from homes or victims. the government only counts related deaths of victims who die in a hospital. the world health organization asked a panel of international experts to calculate the global death toll due to the crisis. in the first two years of the pandemic, worldwide, it was thought around 5.5 million people died from covid. but because of patchy testing, poor record—keeping in some parts of the world, and the fact that some people died of non—covid causes during lockdowns, the world health organization now thinks that figure might be more like 15 million. it's a tragedy. this is a staggering number. and it's important for us to honour the lives that are lost, and we have to hold the policymakers accountable, also.

and if we don't count, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. some countries stand out. the estimate for excess deaths in russia is three and a half times its official count. in india, the who believes deaths were ten times what was recorded, though delhi has disputed the calculations. in africa, countries like somalia only had sketchy data, so the experts admit there is a lot of uncertainty about how many may have died. urgently, we need better data collection systems. it's a disgrace that people can be born and die and we have no record of their passing. so we really need to invest in countries' registration systems, so we can get accurate and timely data. this report confirms that places such as the us, britain, spain and germany all had excess mortality rates above the global average in this crisis.

a reminder that the pandemic was tough, even for the wealthiest countries on the planet. naomi grimley, bbc news. earlier i asked professor devi sridhar, chair of global public health at the university of edinburgh why there is such a disparity between reported covid deaths and these latest world health organisation figures. the estimates from the who actually look at what were deaths in the pre—pandemic times and based on that what we would expect in 2020 and 2021 and actually, how many deaths had happened that are due directly to covid—19 orfrom other causes where people could not get care because covid was taking up health care resources. there are some stark differences as well, in which countries were seemingly underreporting. india, for example, ten times. what does that tell us about the global response to this pandemic?

i think what we are first seeing is because there have been comparisons across countries in terms of death rates, politicians are keen for them to look lower because then they can say we have done better, where i think scientists and the who are keen to have an accurate estimate of how many people have suffered because of this pandemic, and i think what we have to think is how many can we prevent going into the future, how can we get vaccines to all parts of the world? and we know there are still major vaccine inequalities between places giving fourth boosters and places in the world which are still trying to give out first doses, so i think that is really where we should be spending energy, so if we look at 2022 many of these deaths could be prevented, going into the future. yes, absolutely and i wanted to ask you about that, about what this may tell us and what we may learn and perhaps how damaging it is because we don't actually get a true picture of this and quite how devastating this pandemic was. yes, they say in public health if you don't count it, then it doesn't matter and what we're trying to do is put

numbers to this so that we can see that each life matters, how this can be prevented and how we can do better next time. this pandemic isn't over in all parts of the world. how do we try to save more lives, going forward and avoid this major death toll? it is worth saying a lot of people die from the flu, but in an average year flu deaths are around 3000—6000 globally, so we can see covid—19 is a much more serious event and really the largest pandemic since 1918. yes, and i wonder where uk fits into this global picture as well and what it tells us about our response to this crisis? because there was a lot of criticism of whether we focus on specific numbers and death tolls and infection rates, but that was so important in being able to monitor the spread of this crisis. yes, i think it was very important to have surveillance and before we had widespread vaccination, testing was actually our main tool to break the chains of transmission and make sure we were not having

infection spreading — to get a wave of infections without vaccines is absolutely devastating, as we saw in the first and second waves, so i think right now what we have to look at is could the uk do betterforward? to look at is could the uk do better going forward? the other thing is if the same thing were to happen again, what measures could be put in place to protect those who are most vulnerable, the elderly and those with underlying health issues, the real issues is with the nhs, making sure there is investment in the staff, we are all burnt out, but also making sure the resources the resources are there, so care can be provided for all conditions, because we know some of the other issues have been delayed cancer diagnoses, which have been affecting many people's lives, but the issue is the nhs needs more resources and is very limited right now. elsewhere... a bbc investigation has found scammers have set up hundreds of fake charity websites to profit from the war in ukraine. some of the sites steal details

from real charities — including a video and logo from save the children. it says the criminals behind the scams are stealing from donors and the vulnerable people the charities are trying to help. angus crawford reports. out of war, chaos. ukrainian refugees needing shelter and safety. feeding off the destruction, fake charity websites appearing all over the internet. take this one. it looks professional. the only problem is, it's fake. there is no charity registration number, and as for the address of the head office, it doesn't even exist. but there is a phone number. i just wanted to ask you a quick question about what the money's been spent on. there are many refugees, so forfood, clothes, travel. how long have you been going as a charity? so, he's hung up on me, and like many of these sites, most of the sites, there is no evidence at all that any of the money is actually getting to ukraine. here's another.

it's stolen the logo of save the children, and one of their videos. so, does this make you angry? yes, absolutely does. we've got the generosity of the british public, which is being taken advantage of, but then there's also the children that we work with around the world, who are not going to get the support they need because money is being taken away from the genuine good cause. that's shameful, isn't it? it's awful, it's awful. but it's not only charities. this site copies one raising money for the ukrainian army. stealing the profiles of fighters, like tania, who gets kit to soldiers on the front line. so, who is behind these sites? and where are they? take savelifedirect.com. it says it's raised $100,000. it's registered to this

man, moussa ibrahim, who is in abuja in nigeria. beeping. it says it's raising money for ukraine. yes, exactly. but it's not, is it? it's not raising any money for ukraine. we are trying to help the ukrainians. - really? you say on your website you've already raised $100,000, and yet you're not a charity, and there's no evidence any of your money is going to ukraine. he insists he is sending donations to ukraine, but after we spoke, he took the website down. for ukrainians, the war brings misery. for scammers, it's just another opportunity to make money. angus crawford, bbc news. buckingham palace says the queen will miss this season's royal garden parties.

a spokesman says she'll be represented by other members of the royal family. more than 30,000 people are usually invited each year to buckingham palace or the palace of holyroodhouse. details of which royals will attend which events will be confirmed later. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen. good afternoon. the warm sunshine will continue for many parts of england and wales and perhaps a little for the eastern side of scotland and northern ireland, but we do have weather fronts further west pushing in thicker cloud, some rain. could be the odd shower elsewhere, perhaps across the eastern side of wales and into the midlands as well, but with more sunshine generally today a bit warmer more widely, the high teens, perhaps even 20s in a few spots. overnight it will stay mild, really, because in the south we will see patchy low cloud and in the north that weather front is really taking shape, some heavier rain overnight for parts of scotland, northern ireland and that will work its way on friday morning into the north of england as well. any bits of mist clearing

away, a bit misty around the coasts, and it will turn wetter for northern england, but drier with a few showers for scotland and northern ireland, some brightness returning here and in some sunshine we could realise 18 degrees here as well and warm. in the south, we're keeping some sunshine, a bit cooler tomorrow for northern england and north wales. hello this is bbc news. the headlines... interest rates rise to 1%, their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year, its highest ever quarterly figure. the mother of baby p, who died in 2007 after months of abuse,

is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19. if you don't count it, then it doesn't matter, and i think here, what we are trying to do is put numbers to this, so that we can see that each life matters. how many of these deaths could have been prevented? how do we do better next time? and scientists monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s. sport now and for a full round—up from the bbc sport centre,

here's isaac. good afternoon. real madrid didn't have a shot on target in 90 minutes against manchester city. they looked to be on their way out of the champions league. but they scored two goals in injury time and another in extra time to record one of the must stunning victories in the tournament's history. they'll play liverpool in the final. olly foster was at the bernebeau and has this report... this is going to hurt manchester city, the night a champions league final didn'tjust slip away, but was ripped from their grasp. real madrid with a come back to rival any in the history of this competition. it's tough for us, we cannot deny it. we were so close to the champions league final, yet unfortunately we could not, you could not finish when we are close. city only needed a draw in madrid when riyad mahrez lashed in a goal with 20 minutes left to play that would surely see them through. jack grealish was so close to another — not to worry, time was almost up. there's always time. in the final minute, the real substitute rodrygo gave them hope. a minute later, bedlam

in the bernabeu. the brazilian again. extra time then, and a penalty, karim benzema fouled by dias. the frenchman was the coolest of the 60,000 who would party long into the madrid night. but what of city? pep guardiola must make sure this crushing defeat doesn't derail their premier league defence. guillem balague's followed his fellow spaniard's carreerfrom the start, and spoke to him last night. careerfrom the start, and spoke to him last night. when everybody is down here, and they were on the floor, you saw the players, they were, some of them crying as well. he has to be here, and he has to be saying, "now we just have to focus at the job in hand." city's wait for a first champions league title goes on. real will be chasing a 14th. their last came four years ago, against liverpool. the rematch in paris could be very special, but what happened here last night will take some beating. olly foster, bbc news, madrid. both british sides are up against it in the europa league semifinals.

it'll be loud at ibrox as rangers look to overturn a 1—0 first leg semifinal deficit against german side rb leipzig. west ham will face an equally raucous crowd as they head to eintracht frankfurt having lost 2—1 at the london stadium last week. if they can change things in germany, it'll be a first european final for the hammers since 1976. to get to the semifinal of a european competition is huge for anybody. so big for me as well, i want to take the team to the final, i am preparing the team to go to the final, where we believe that if we get it right, we can do so. so we have to manage that and the players are in the same place as i am. we know frankfurt are in front and we have got a bit to do. and it's also the semifinals of the inaugural europa conference league. leicester city are in the italian capital to face jose mourinho's roma. the tie is level at 1—1 after last

weeks game at the king power stadium this is another chapter in the story. so for us, our main objective is to just keep the story of this club going and let's see, like we did in the fa cup. you know, we wanted to be the winners for the first time and it's clearly an objective for us in this competition as well. can we pick up a first piece of silverware in europe? in tennis dan evans was knocked out of the madrid open in straight sets by andrey rublev. the british number two had his chances. he broke rublev in the opening game of the match and then had set point in the tie break but couldn't capitalize losing the opening set. rublev took the second set 7—5 to win in just under 2 hour 30 minutes. earlier andy murray pulled out of his match against novak djokovic in the third round through illness. murray was going into the match in good form having already knocked out 2020 us open champion dominic thiem and canada's denis shapovalov.

that's all the sport for now. more now on the decsison by the bank of england to raise interest rates 1%. the bank's governor andrew bailey has been taking questions from journalists, including from our own economics editor. this appears to be very close to a recession. i don't know how you'd define it. how can you justify to households hit by this cost of living crisis further exacerbating that in the middle of what looks very much like a recession? thanks, faisal. as you say, it is a very weak projection. it's a very sharp slowdown. there's technical definition of a recession. it doesn't meet that, but put that to one side, it is a very obviously sharp slowdown in activity. so, turning to the question, it's a very good question, about why therefore should we increase the bank rate

at this point in time, and i come back to this analogy that i used and have used recently of this narrow path, and the challenge of course is that on the other side of the path is where inflation currently is, but more particularly, the risks as we see them going forwards, and i would highlight as we say in the minutes of the statement that the risks are if anything on the upside, we think, to inflation going forward, and that comes, i think, i would highlight two things. one, that we have a very tight labour market. so we have unemployment currently at 3.8%. we think it will actually go down somewhat. and of course it's interesting looking back i think over the last two years or so as to how much we now know, and i would emphasise now know, because there was huge uncertainty through the covid period on this question, and it's a very important question, but of course the unemployment path has been very different. and the labour market is very tight. i spend a lot of time going around the country talking to businesses, i'm sure you do as well, and frankly, the first,

second and third thing they want to talk about quite recently is the tightness of the labour market, the challenges they're having in recruitment and what that means for pay. the second thing is, i would highlight on this risks point is that one of the things we've highlighted before is that the covid period did lead to quite a substantial build—up in unexpected saving in the economy, so the question of course continues, and under this new, if you like, setting of the state of the economy, is how exactly are those savings going to be used, and are they going to be used to buffer demand? but of course then we have to look at that from the point of view of risks to inflation. so the point being is, we are walking this very narrow path now, and to your question, the reason for raising the bank rate at this point is not only the current profile of inflation and what is to come, and of course what that could mean for inflation expectations, but the risks as well.

and i would particularly emphasise the risks. spring is taking root earlier. a woodland study has found changes common to the season have moved forward by three weeks compared with the 1940s. great tit birds in wytham woods near oxford have been laying eggs earlier than ever. scientists, who have special permission to access their nests, are blaming climate change. our science correspondent victoria gill reports. more than 500 plant species, 800 types of butterflies and moths, and in one woodland site of about a square mile, there are 1,200 specially built nest boxes. because wytham woods, near oxford, is a very special site of scientific interest. is this officially the most studied woodland in the world, do you think? i mean, it certainly must be one of them. this year marks the 75th anniversary of the wytham great tit project. scientists have systematically monitored every chick hatched

in their nest boxes here since 1947. and we are about to meet the newest generation. wow, how many are there? there are eight. that's a very standard size for a great tit. now these parents have got a lot of work to do. they have got to find about 10,000 caterpillars for these. 10,000 to get them to fledge? yeah. people are quite divided on whether they think they are cute or ugly. i think they are sort of cute—ugly. yeah. it is precisely because this has been a continuous study for all those decades that researchers have been able to see and to measure the change in the timing of spring here. the 75 years that we have been studying the tits here, we have seen quite a marked shift in the timing of egg laying. so now they are laying about three weeks earlier. than they were in the 1940s. the tits here are actually managing to track the other members of their food chain quite well. so both the caterpillars and the oaks have also shifted their timing earlier,

so the whole sort of food chain has shifted earlier in the spring. the woods were bequeathed to oxford university by a wealthy local family back in 1942. since then, they have been the site of dozens of different scientific projects. but the longest running is the great tit study, which chris perrins has been involved in for more than half a century. and what are your reflections on the seasonal shift? that is fine. unless it gets to limits where the trees, or the caterpillars, or the birds can't do that shift because it's too big. and that is still the question... that is still a big question to answer and a very interesting one. the work here goes on. and whenever spring happens, it's a busy season for the birds and the scientists, because as our climate changes, these rare, decades—long studies that track exactly how the natural world responds become more important as time goes on. victoria gill, bbc news, wytham wood.

meanwhile, a new study has found the number of flying insects has fallen by nearly 60% in less than 20 years. the figures are drawn from a survey conducted by the kent wildlife trust and the charity buglife. dr tilly collins from the centre for environmental policy at imperial college london told me what we can do to improve insect numbers. it is a dramatic fall and we need to be very worried about this, because looking at your previous article, insects are incredibly important parts of food webs. in the countryside, and we really need them to underpin vertebrate biodiversity, to feed the chicks. we need insects doing many things in our countryside. talk to me about their importance in the food chain. because they are hugely significant, aren't they? they are.

they feed the chicks and the birds in the countryside. they feed other insects, but they also do things for us in the soil. so it is notjust that they are part of the food system. but that they physically do things for us, they help us biodegrade animal poo in the countryside. they do many, many things that make our nature—based ecosystem processes work. and these headline figures show us that dramatic figure, but is it across—the—board, or are we seeing bigger falls in certain types of insects and i guess, if so, why are certain insects more badly affected than others? some types are more specifically vulnerable, they may be rare, they may have small populations, but in many situations, it is beneficial insects that are suffering the most and that is largely because of our agricultural systems. so if you plant a monocultural field, very few insects

thrive in that situation. but the ones that do, the pest insects do well, but the ones that we really want do less well. tell me a little about the ones that we do want and this may show my ignorance, but i'm looking at some on your board behind you, i can spot a ladybird, a caterpillar and a moth? i cannot see the fourth one. it is kind of a mosquito—y fly. are those the sort of insects we need more of? we need more of all kinds of insects. people often underestimate how many insects there are. there are probably a million species of insects that we have identified and potentially many more out there that we don't know about. whereas for vertebrates, vertebrate species, there are many fewer. to a good approximation, all animals are in fact insects. what can we be doing

to make sure we provide habitats that are welcoming? if it's just a case of planting flowers in the garden, what should we plant, where and how? and there's us response from agriculture and the bigger industry too, isn't there? yes, it's really important to do things at all levels, we need to be planting wildflowers, not mowing so frequently, we need to give insects a chance to reproduce before we start to cut things down. we need to put biodiversity into our urban areas and put it back into the countryside. we need agricultural programmes that support that, and also farming systems where people are taught more about it, the dominant paradigms that you spray everything and it will be the best, is fading away now, we're beginning to understandard biodiversity brings many things including natural pest control.

lots of predatory insects have been eliminated by farming, but we need those to do the jobs of reducing the pests so we can reduce the pesticides. is this about education? about seeing bugs as part of our food chain and natural world rather than pests? i think there is a danger we see them, especially in the summer, as flies, mosquitoes that bite us, bees that may sting us, we have to change our perception of what these insects are able to do? yes. yes, we absolutely do and it has been a problem with research as well, that most of the research money has gone into how to manage pests and not on how to understand how beneficial so many of them are to us and what they bring, not only to us, but to the ecosystems on which we depend. they certainly need a good pr. and we need to get used to not going, "eek!" whenever an insect appears.

the polish prime minister says international donors have pledged $6.5 billion in aid for ukraine at a conference held in warsaw. our correspondent adam easton is following the story for us in warsaw. quite a commitment, $6.5 billion and eight, we know it has come from individual countries, some banks and businesses, do we have any sense what that money will be used for? financial support for humanitarian aid, essentially. in the longer run, may beasts some of that money would be used to help rebuild ukraine, but that would also depend on when the war ended. that would pretty much depend on a fairly swift end to the war. that is certainly one of the things, one of the three things that

the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelensky, said when he addressed the conference from kyiv by video link. he said first of all we need money for the ukrainian people right now while the war is still on. then we need money for rebuilding, reconstructing all of the damage that has been caused during the war and he liked it to a modern day marshall plan that ukraine will meet after the war is over and the third thing he said was that ukraine should have hope to realise their european dreams and he said ukraine should be given candid status to join the european union right now and he was talking to the presidents of the european commission and european council, ursula von der leyen and charles michel, who were there at the conference in warsaw along with several of the leaders,

the conference organised by poland and sweden. to put that number into some sort of context for you, $6.5 billion, that is about half of what ukraine has received already since the war began in military, both military and financial aid, and that came, that number came from the ukrainian prime minister who is also here in warsaw. ukrainian prime minister who is also here in warsaw-— here in warsaw. thank you for that u date. here in warsaw. thank you for that update- we — here in warsaw. thank you for that update- we are — here in warsaw. thank you for that update. we are grateful. _ a huge clean—up operation is underway in the spanish city of valencia, after record—breaking rainfall. dozens of cars were swallowed up, as floodwater cascaded through neighbourhoods of the city, leaving homes and businesses soaked. wendy urquhart reports. this used to be a road. now it's a river. dozens of cars were swallowed up, as floodwater surged through the city's neighbourhoods, leaving homes and businesses completely saturated.

"a lot of water fell last night," says this man. "just look at the state of the place." "last night, all the neighbours in the building were bailing out water for four hours," says another. firefighters faced an uphill struggle, as they tried to rescue drivers who were stranded in their cars. the horrendous weather forcing authorities to shut down several roads in valencia and the metro system also ground to a halt, as torrential rain battered the city for 24 hours nonstop. weather—wise, it is supposed to be dry and sunny for the next few days, which will give people the chance to clean up the mess that the floods have left behind. but they are unlikely to be able to salvage much, because everything is completely waterlogged. the new boss of britain's biggest sports retailer, sports direct, says he's planning to open up ten new flagship stores.

michael murray has taken over as chief executive of frasers group that includes house of fraser and flannels. in his first interview in the top job, he warns of cost pressures facing the business and price rises ahead. our business correspondent emma simpson reports. opening tomorrow, a new flagship store. and there's also a new man at the top. it's cost 10 million to open this store, which is a huge investment in the high street. meet michael murray, aged 32. he now has one of the biggest jobs in british retail, and he's betting big the high street. on the high street. he wants more of these stores, with brands, e—sports and experience. do you see yourself as a moderniser, then? you could call me that. it's really about taking all different aspects of the business and making it fit for purpose and simple for the consumer to shop. but what about the founder and future father—in—law, mike ashley? is he still pulling the strings?

no, mike is not pulling the strings. we have worked in a partnership, a very collaborative approach, over the last two to three years, and then from the day i became ceo, the final decision lies with me. and that includes cost pressures running high. he says there is not much he can do about price rises. in terms of the pricing of the product, we are very much at mercy to our brand partners, they decide the price they want to sell the goods for, and we will increase the prices as and when the brands ask us or recommend us to do so. how tough do you think it is going to get? it's definitely going to get tough, but i believe we are in the right segment. i think people will spend less, but they will definitely spend on the items which they need, and which is aspirational to them. a new era for this retailer giant? there is certainly a change of image. if he doubles the share price, michael murray is in line for £100 million bonus.

emma simpson, bbc news, birmingham. the cornish seal sanctuary at gweek has been a lifeline for thousands of injured seals over the years. but it's their long—term residents who are in now in need of help. their home needs an upgrade and that's going to cost £1.3 million. jemma woodman has more. logs is one of the sanctuary�*s long—term residents. he and 15 other seals here are too old or injured to be released back into the wild. but their home desperately needs a renovation. you can see the pools here look tired and jaded and the organisers say they can't wait any longer. the plan for their future is to double the size of the pools, increase filtration, and to make it a better experience for visitors. but it's going to cost £1.3 million, and the sanctuary are reliant on the public for donations. we're incredibly grateful for public and our supporters who have donated to us over the covid pandemic. and we're asking again,

because we don't want to wait any more, we can't wait with this project. we really want to do the best for our animals and for the guests, which means we would like to start it as soon as possible, which again requires vital funds to do that. the cornish seal sanctuary looks after around 70 injured seals a year, and in the future, the plan is to upgrade their seal hospital. but right now it's all about residents like this. if you hit the fundraising target, what difference will it make to the lives of the long—term residents here? well, for example, we have atty down here. we're going to have better water quality for her. we're going to have more space. we're going to have more interesting exhibits for her to kind of explore and interact with. when we first found her, she wouldn't have survived. she's completely blind. she was having her eyes pecked by seagulls. so we didn't want to give up on her. and yeah, now she's living a very comfortable life here. but life here could be better. the last time the pools were upgraded was in 1975. the sanctuary says it

has a legacy to uphold, but when work can begin on any refurbishments depends on funding. so there's no date yet for when or if attie and her neighbours will move into their new digs. gemma woodman, bbc spotlight. a glorious day in cornwall and outside, the son in london outside broadcast house, we are stuck here in the basement. now it's time for a look at the weather with helen. good afternoon. it's a tale of two halves. we have got some warm sunshine across many parts of england and wales, under the building high pressure, the azores highs moving in, but further north, we do have some weather fronts, they are bringing some patchy rain, particularly to scotland. for northern ireland, i think it may well brighten up for a time, the east of the grampians as well. for england and wales, we have got a little bit of fairweather cloud that has built up during the course of the day

and the shower around as possible, particularly in western and southern areas, perhaps the midlands. the odd one further east, but very isolated, warmer more generally than yesterday, even with some brightness across eastern scotland and northern ireland. but it is where we see the more prolonged sunshine where the highest levels of pollen are, again, mostly tree pollen, but grass pollen is starting to take effect as well now. so, some sunshine continuing for a time through this evening and overnight there is clear skies, a little bit of mistiness in, but mostly around southern and western coasts, perhaps thick enough for some drizzle, this is where the more significant rain is, but it is mild across—the—board and that weather front really does take shape as we go through the night, some really quite wet weather for parts of southern and western scotland and northern ireland for a time. it is still with us to start the day friday, some brightness initially and some sunshine in southern and eastern areas and sunshine will return across scotland and northern england, for northern and western wales, a much cloudier and potentially wetter day than today, still warm where we keep the sunshine in the south and warmer to the north of that weather front across the east of scotland once again. now, that weather front will move out the way, we think, by the start of the weekend, as that high pressure, that azores high, once again

re—establishes itself, bringing some warmer air in from the south and keeping our weather front at bay. not wall—to—wall sunshine, there still will be the odd shower around, as you can see from some of the thicker cloud mulling around under our area of high pressure, but for most, saturday looks like a reasonable day, some early morning mistiness too, but dry and quite warm in the sunshine, but obviously where we do have some onshore cloud, it will be a little bit cooler. now, come sunday, we start to see the influence of the atlantic pushing into the northern ireland, the western isles, perhaps the highlands of scotland and eventually northern ireland, but for many parts again, it is a dry, reasonably bright day and it will feel warm where the sun comes out. as ever, there is plenty more detail on the website.

this is bbc news. the headlines... interest rates rise to 1 %, their highest level since 2009. the governor of the bank of england says they could rise further, as the bank tries to deal with soaring inflation. because of this very, very narrow path that we are on, we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in bank rate but it depends how the economy evolves. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to seven point three billion pounds in the first three months of this year — its highest ever quarterly figure. the mother of baby p — the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse — is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge

against its ruling to release tracey connolly. ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azov—stal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19. if you do not count it then it doesn't matter and i think here what we are trying to do is put numbers to this that we can see that each life matters. how many of these deaths could have been prevented, how do we do better next time? and scientists monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s.

hello bee hello to you, a warm welcome, this is bbc news. the bank of england has increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking them to1 per cent, as it tries to slow the rise in prices. it predicts inflation will rise to more than 10 per cent this year — the highest rate since 1982. in a gloomy assessment, the bank has also forecast the economy will contract next year — leaving the uk facing a period of so—called �*stagflation' — when prices rise quickly but economic growth is slow. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. the global economy reopening after a pandemic and a war in ukraine — don't ask what that has got to do with the price of cheese. the answer is everything. prices are going up weekly, you know? milk prices have gone up vastly in the last three or four months, butter is going up £5 a case, and then it has gone up another £5 a case.

which ok, it is good forfarmers, they are getting a decent price for their milk. but the knock—on effect is it is costing more to produce. because the electric costs have gone up, feed costs have gone up, fertiliser has gone up. so it is just a vicious circle at the moment. the inflation is global, and so was the reaction, with the us central bank, the federal reserve, hiking rates faster than they have in 22 years. inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing. and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down. today, the bank of england raised interest rates for the fourth time in a row, the first time that has happened since 2007. global inflationary pressures have

intensified sharply in the build up to and following the invasion. this has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world growth. this is what the bank of england's official interest rate is now, the highest in 13 years. but not very high, because for the last 13 years they have been at emergency rates. look at the historic average for the bank of england's rate, 7.2%. then if you look at the highest it has been, in 1979, 17%. interest rates, when inflation was last this high, 30 years ago, were nearly 10%. but economists don't think today's still super—low rates will get anywhere near that. markets are expecting the interest rate to reach 2.5% by the end of this year, which we think is probably too high. raising interest rates is meant to cool down the economy by making it more expensive to borrow cash to spend or invest. but in the streets outside the shop in central nottingham,

businesses are already struggling with tight consumer purse strings. we are going to give it this year to see if it picks up any. if not, then... you are going to give up? i am going to think twice, i can't keep living on my savings. the risk in the coming months is that we go through the worst inflation in decades in the midst of a sharp economic slowdown. if higher interest rates are meant to put consumers off spending, soaring energy bills may have already done thatjob. a rather pessimistic outlook for the uk economy. a rather pessimistic outlook for the uk economy. well a short time ago economics editor faisal islam sat down with the bank of england governor andrew bailey. we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in the bank rate but it depends how the economy evolves, frankly, and so the one thing i can always say about the mpc is a will be another meeting and i say that quite seriously because we have to come back in about six weeks and reassess all the evidence again. and because the situation is

so unprecedented, that reassessment is particularly important because we are seeing things you have not seen before. we are walking a very narrow path between, on the one side, inflation which of course is far higher than it should be and you want it to be on the other side because we are being hit by very big external shocks which are causing, largely causing inflation, they are so big they are causing a real loss of income to people and businesses in the country, the balance of those two things, the big increase of inflation and the big, what we expected to be, unfortunately hit to real income, is very difficult and it is a difficult combination of things. and you watch more of faisal�*s interview on the bbc news at 6 tonight. earlier i spoke with simon french, chief economist at the investment bank panmure gordon and asked him

whether he's expecting us to see futher interest rate rises in the future what is very clear from the press conference is that he thinks, andrew bailey, a lot of the increases in cost that people are seeing daily and the supermarkets, the shops come online, are actually going to bring inflation down in and of itself and that package for shoppers, in nottingham, they say there is already some weakness and the bank of england forecast sees inflation undershooting 2% in three years, and there is a lot of economic news, a lot of... to travel and certainly interest rates are not going to be the whole part of getting the economy back. the the whole part of getting the economy back.— the whole part of getting the econom back. �* ., ,, ., ., economy back. the bank of england has uuite a economy back. the bank of england has quite a balancing _

economy back. the bank of england has quite a balancing act _ economy back. the bank of england has quite a balancing act to - economy back. the bank of england has quite a balancing act to play - has quite a balancing act to play here. it is about holding their nerve because whatever they do now, we will not see the effects of 46, 12, 18 months as it takes time for that to change our spending and saving habits, so i wonder how far ahead they are looking when we are seeing predictions that inflation could hit more than 10%. it seeing predictions that inflation could hit more than 10%.- seeing predictions that inflation could hit more than 10%. it will be an uncomfortable _ could hit more than 10%. it will be an uncomfortable few— could hit more than 10%. it will be an uncomfortable few months - could hit more than 10%. it will be - an uncomfortable few months because the new forecast sees inflation above 10% in the autumn, a further 40% increase to energy price tariffs in october and what was perhaps missing from the forecast was do you think the government is going to sit by idly if it goes to 40% and i don't think the r but the forecast predicts that so one of the problems is, you are alluding to it in your question, the forecast looks one year two years or three years ahead but it may have a very set of different policies from the treasury and from the wholesale gas and energy price, than the one they are

facing today given these decisions. we often talk about normalising rates, the idea they will come back to something we are a bit more familiar with what is the problem that we have got so used to interest rates being so low for so long after the financial crisis of 2008 they were slashed and never really went back up, did they? were slashed and never really went back up. did they?— back up, did they? there is certainly — back up, did they? there is certainly a _ back up, did they? there is certainly a whole _ back up, did they? there is| certainly a whole generation back up, did they? there is . certainly a whole generation of 13-15 certainly a whole generation of 13—15 years worth of borrowers that for some had never seen interest rates at the level we see today and it has to be said that other things have happened in the debt market over the past decade or so that are relevant in terms of helping us, with 80% of mortgage debt now at a fixed rate so it is not passing through instantaneously but your right to say what is more... in this economy, even in the economy where growth is less of a problem that will be in the uk, the interest rate

last night, their central bank only see interest rates at the top of the cycle at about 3%, so some of your viewers who may be used to double digit interest rates, even this inflation environment, they are unlikely to see them in the cycle. that was simon french speaking to me a little earlier. staying with... —— staying with business... the energy giant shell has announced its highest ever quarterly profits. the company made nearly 7—point—3 billion pounds in the first three months of this year. that's a three—fold increase on the same period in 2021. earlier our business editor, simonjack explained what was behind the rise in profits. increased costs of things like oil, gas, which have filtered through to petrol and our heating bills meant that companies like shell, as bp did earlier this week, have made bumper profits. we saw oil, crude oil prices, already high at the end of last year, gas prices already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged

from a covid—related coma, if you like, were amplified by the russian invasion of ukraine, people worried that supplies from the world's second biggest oil exporter, the world's biggest gas exporter would be either shut off or boycotted, sent this international bidding war for prices, which means that they have made more money than they ever have in their 115 year history. as for what they are going to do with it, they are going to give a lot of money to their shareholders — £4.5 billion this quarter, £4.5 billion the next — which includes, by the way, millions of pension savers. they are also pledging to invest between them, bp and shell, over £40 billion in energy infrastructure over the next 7—10 years and that will be, you know, people will be watching very closely

to make sure they fulfil those commitments. the mother of baby p could be released from prison within weeks after the parole board rejected a government challenge against its ruling. tracey connolly was jailed in 2009 after she admitted causing or allowing the death of her 17—month—old son, peter, at their home in north london. our correspondent andrew plant is here.... reminders of the background of this case. ~ , ., ., , , , reminders of the background of this case. ., , , case. anyone who remembers this case when it came — case. anyone who remembers this case when it came to — case. anyone who remembers this case when it came to trial _ case. anyone who remembers this case when it came to trial back— case. anyone who remembers this case when it came to trial back in _ case. anyone who remembers this case when it came to trial back in 2009 - when it came to trial back in 2009 will know it because horror and outrage, really, notjust the details about outrage, really, not just the details about what outrage, really, notjust the details about what had happened to baby p throughout his short 17 month life but also the fact of his injuries, he had suffered more than 50 separate injuries during the eight months prior to the moment he was found dead in his cot in august 2007 but also the fact that he has been repeatedly visited by health care professionals, the police, also members of the... at haringey county council and months before he died. he was on the register and yet he was left in the family home for

these things to happen to him so it caused real outrage with three people eventually tried and imprisoned for what happened to him, tracey connelly, his mother but also her partner who was given the longest sentence and his brother. the boyfriend are still in jail. tracey connelly was given a minimum of five years, she's been in prison for 13 years and this was her fourth attempt at parole which was approved attempt at parole which was approved a few weeks ago but it was challenged by the government but today that has been rejected so as you say, now she could be released within the next few weeks. iloathed you say, now she could be released within the next few weeks.- within the next few weeks. what if ou within the next few weeks. what if you learned _ within the next few weeks. what if you learned about _ within the next few weeks. what if you learned about why _ within the next few weeks. what if you learned about why the - within the next few weeks. what if you learned about why the appeal| within the next few weeks. what if. you learned about why the appeal was rejected? figs you learned about why the appeal was rejected? has i you learned about why the appeal was re'ected? �* , 3 you learned about why the appeal was re'ected? �* , ._ , you learned about why the appeal was re'ected? �* , , .,, rejected? as i say, this was the fourth try. _ rejected? as i say, this was the fourth try. if — rejected? as i say, this was the fourth try. if you _ rejected? as i say, this was the fourth try, if you like, - rejected? as i say, this was the fourth try, if you like, approved rejected? as i say, this was the i fourth try, if you like, approved by the parole board who are independent of government but government decided they wanted to appeal against that and we've heard from the parole board today who have said it has been reconsidered by seniorjudge and they've decided with that original decision to release tracey conneuy original decision to release tracey connelly and they said the decision was not a rational and the original

decision is upheld. it was essentially challenged by the justice secretary dominic raab you said tracey connelly�*s actions are evil and it demonstrates why we need a fundamental overhaul of the parole board and you said including perhaps a ministerial check which would be essentially ministerial oversight of release by the parole board on the most serious offenders.— most serious offenders. thank you for that. voters have been heading to the polls today to have their say in a host of elections across the uk in england 146 councils are holding elections —including in major cities like sheffield, birmingham and london. in scotland and wales all council areas are holding elections and in northern ireland people have been voting to elect the 90 mlas that sit in the northern ireland assembly. for full details of the elections in your area — go to the bbc news website. in the politics section — you can enter your postcode and get all the details. that's all at bbc.co.uk/ news.

and there's full coverage of the results here on bbc news from 11.40 tonight with huw edwards and more across bbc news tomorrow, and through the weekend. at exactly quarter past four. let's bring you up to date. the headlines on bbc news... interest rates rise to 1 per cent, their highest level since 2009, as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. the mother of baby p, who died in 2007 after months of abuse, is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths globally, according to new research by the world health organization

ukrainian officials say they have seen few signs of the ceasefire that russia said it was implementing at the besieged steel plant in the city of mariupol. the kremlin insists humanitarian corridors are in place at the azovstal plant, where ukrainian fighters and some 200 civilians are trapped. ukraine says russian troops have tried to storm the works, which moscow denies. our we could be entering the last days of the battle for mariupol. the azovstal steelworks, where ukrainian fighters are making theirfinal stand, has been pounded from above for days. now it seems the assault from the ground is underway. translation: it's already - the second day since the enemy broke into the plant. there are heavy, bloody battles. i am proud of my soldiers, who are making superhuman efforts to contain the pressure of the enemy. the situation is extremely

difficult, but no matter what, we continue to carry out the order to hold the defence. in short, the fight for azovstal will be a fight to the death. but it's notjust ukrainian soldiers stuck in the sprawling tunnels and nuclear bunkers of this huge complex. more than 200 civilians are also thought to be sheltering there. russia has announced a temporary ceasefire for a few hours each day to let them escape. ukrainians say they want the same thing. translation: we hope . to continue rescuing people from azovstal, from mariupol. there are still civilians left there. women, children. to save them, we need to continue the ceasefire. we are ready to take part. it willjust take time to lift people out of those basements, out of those underground shelters. late last night, a group of evacuees did arrive in the town of zaporizhzhia, but they were from the wider city,

not the besieged steelworks. if the plant does fall, that will mean all of mariupol is under russian control. as well as giving president putin something to call a victory, it will free up thousands of russian forces to take part in the assault on the donbas. so far, progress south is reported to be very slow and uneven, while movement north has been paused altogether. that could be because the donbas is where many of ukraine's best trained and most experienced soldiers are based, and they're digging in. but this war isn'tjust taking place on the ground in the east. yesterday russia hit a crucial crossing over the dnieper river. it followed strikes today before here in lviv, where they targeted three electrical substations. they're trying to take out ukraine's rail network, and stop the flow of weapons from the west to the east. but it's not all going one way. ukraine is said to have destroyed this huge russian oil depot in occupied donetsk. this war is as much about logistics as anything else, and both sides are drawing blood.

joe inwood, bbc news, lviv. on the frontlines of the war, thousands of people remain trapped in horrifying conditions. in the donbas region rescue operations to free them are led by volunteers who are taking enormous risks. our correspondent andrew harding has been hearing from some of those volunteers and the people whose lives they've saved. they sit in stunned silence on the school bus thatjust rescued them from hell. still weary with terror. two other buses with them did not make it back. "it was so scary," is all she can manage to say. thousands here are running the russian gauntlet, trying to escape from the kremlin's new offensive in eastern ukraine. but imagine escaping this, and then going back in again and again. that is what a group of remarkable volunteers are doing here in the donbas, including the man who filmed this.

a british maths teacher, guy osborn, who came out last month to lend a hand. we have been going quite close to the front and evacuating huddled, bedridden people, a couple of blind people, people with zimmer frames. it is quite a risk you're taking. i am quite scared most of the time. who wouldn't be? explosions. this footage was filmed by the driver of another school bus, one of the two that went missing. mikhail pankov is a local history teacher.

last friday, he left for a rescue mission and never came back. then, a surprise announcement on russian television. mikhail has been captured alive. then another surprise. while we are speaking to his wife, yulia, her phone rings. it is her husband — still held captive, but calling with important news. "he spoke about a prisoner exchange," she says. "my husband said the russians might swap him for prisoners held by our government. "soon, i hope. "so maybe everything will work out." perhaps it will. but for others still trapped in the town of popasna, no help at hand. this is as close as we can get to the town right now. you can hear the boom of artillery in the distance and some shells landing the other side of this field. we have been told all rescue efforts have now been suspended because of the danger, but that still leaves something like 2,000 civilians trapped in this town, and, we are told, many more civilians caught in other frontline towns. all evidence of a slow, grinding conflict with no end in sight. andrew harding, bbc news,

in eastern ukraine. the world health organisation estimates that 15 million excess deaths occured globally due to the covid pandemic. the figure suggests many more people died than would have been expected based on previous years' death—rates. the who believes many countries undercounted the numbers who died from covid — as our global health correspondent naomi grimley reports. in the global chaos of covid... ..makeshift funeral pyres and hasty burials around the world have become all too familiar. but have some countries under—counted the number of lives

lost to the pandemic? translation: 50% of deaths are not registered by - the government as covid—19. our ngo brings bodies to be cremated directly from homes or victims. the government only counts related deaths of victims who die in a hospital. the world health organization asked a panel of international experts to calculate the global death toll due to the crisis. in the first two years of the pandemic, worldwide, it was thought around 5.5 million people died from covid. but because of patchy testing, poor record—keeping in some parts of the world, and the fact that some people died of non—covid causes during lockdowns, the world health organization now thinks that figure might be more like 15 million. it's a tragedy. this is a staggering number. and it's important for us to honour the lives that are lost, and we have to hold the policymakers accountable, also. and if we don't count, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time. some countries stand out. the estimate for excess deaths

in russia is three and a half times its official count. in india, the who believes deaths were ten times what was recorded, though delhi has disputed the calculations. in africa, countries like somalia only had sketchy data, so the experts admit there is a lot of uncertainty about how many may have died. urgently, we need better data collection systems. it's a disgrace that people can be born and die and we have no record of their passing. so we really need to invest in countries' registration systems, so we can get accurate and timely data. this report confirms that places such as the us, britain, spain and germany all had excess mortality rates above the global average in this crisis. a reminder that the pandemic

was tough, even for the wealthiest countries on the planet. naomi grimley, bbc news. a bbc investigation has found scammers have set up hundreds of fake charity websites to profit from the war in ukraine. some of the sites steal details from real charities — including a video and logo from save the children. it says the criminals behind the scams are stealing from donors and the vulnerable people the charities are trying to help. angus crawford reports. out of war, chaos. ukrainian refugees needing shelter and safety. feeding off the destruction, fake charity websites appearing all over the internet. take this one. it looks professional.

the only problem is, it's fake. there is no charity registration number, and as for the address of the head office, it doesn't even exist. but there is a phone number. i just wanted to ask you a quick question about what the money's been spent on. there are many refugees, so forfood, clothes, travel. how long have you been going as a charity? so, he's hung up on me, and like many of these sites, most of the sites, there is no evidence at all that any of the money is actually getting to ukraine. here's another. it's stolen the logo of save the children, and one of their videos. so, does this make you angry? yes, absolutely does. we've got the generosity of the british public, which is being taken advantage of, but then there's also the children that we work with around the world, who are not going to get the support

they need because money is being taken away from the genuine good cause. that's shameful, isn't it? it's awful, it's awful. but it's not only charities. this site copies one raising money for the ukrainian army. stealing the profiles of fighters, like tania, who gets kit to soldiers on the front line. so, who is behind these sites? and where are they? take savelifedirect.com. it says it's raised $100,000. it's registered to this man, moussa ibrahim, who is in abuja in nigeria. beeping. it says it's raising money for ukraine. yes, exactly. but it's not, is it? it's not raising any money for ukraine. we are trying to help the ukrainians. - really?

you say on your website you've already raised $100,000, and yet you're not a charity, and there's no evidence any of your money is going to ukraine. he insists he is sending donations to ukraine, but after we spoke, he took the website down. for ukrainians, the war brings misery. for scammers, it's just another opportunity to make money. angus crawford, bbc news. two other stories to bring you... buckingham palace says the queen will miss this season's royal garden parties.a spokesman says she'll be represented by other members of the royal family. nasa says a spacex capsule with four astronauts on board has left the international space station after spending nearly six months in orbit. if all goes to plan, the three americans and a german will parachute into the sea off the coast of florida in the early hours of friday morning. and just to let you know that ben brown will be answering your questions on the war in ukraine, live from kyiv in the next few minutes.

ben will have a range of panellists answering questions on a range of aspects of the conflict. but first, it's time for a look at the weather with helen willetts. hello. hello. more sunshine today across the south, we've already seen around 20, 20 across the south, we've already seen around 20,20 one across the south, we've already seen around 20, 20 one celsius, so some really super springlike weather, not the rain that some of us do need but the rain that some of us do need but the shower certainly helped yesterday and we do have some rain around further north, and even hear seeing some sunshine with that bite in northern ireland. a few roach hours across england and wales this evening and that is worth packing the umbrella if you're heading out this evening but they will be few and far between, fading overnight. misty in the south but quite an active weather front by that stage. a bit more breeze answering that in through the night so wet in scotland, northern ireland and tomorrow morning quite a wet start

but that does clear through from scotland, northern ireland to the afternoon so right as guys follow. in contrast, northern england and wales compelled to today, it will be wetter, sunnier and warmer in the south and brighton in north later. —— and writer in the north later. welcome to your questions answered ukraine. i'm ben brown in kyiv and you've been sending in your questions on war here. to answer, i'm joined by a panel of guests. from north london, justin bronk is a senior fellow and expert on the use of air power at the defence and security think tank, the royal united services institute. from birmingham, we have kataryna wolczuk, who is professor of politics at the centre for russian, european and eurasian studies at the university of birmingham, and an associate fellow at chatham house. and from oxford, we are joined by the bbc�*s world affair�*s

editorjohn simpson.