the scotland, northern ireland to the afternoon so right as guys follow. in contrast, northern england and wales compelled to today, it will be wetter, sunnier and warmer in the south and brighton in north later. —— and writer in the north later. welcome to your questions answered ukraine. i'm ben brown in kyiv and you've been sending in your questions on war here. to answer, i'm joined by a panel of guests. from north london, justin bronk is a senior fellow and expert on the use of air power at the defence and security think tank, the royal united services institute. from birmingham, we have kataryna wolczuk, who is professor of politics at the centre for russian, european and eurasian studies at the university of birmingham, and an associate fellow at chatham house. and from oxford, we are joined by the bbc�*s world affair�*s

editorjohn simpson. ourfinal guest is here in kyiv with me, the ukrainian mp kira rudyk, who is also leader of the holos party. let's go to our first question and stay with kira rudyk. josh has messaged in asking, "what is the most likely way this war will end? and will it be a long time before it does?" as a ukrainian politician, what is your answer to that? the most preferable for us is that russia is weakened to the point when she does not have an ability to continue the war. the tool back the troops and then we continue living in our beautiful country. but when you asking about, look at the sanctions he is putting together

that will start acting in six months. so now you know, at least the minimum time. we see that all the minimum time. we see that all the sanctions, all the weapons, it just takes time to get here and to start acting. so i think we need to prepare for a long marathon, rather than to sprint, as everybody thought before. , �* .,, than to sprint, as everybody thought before. , �* ~' , than to sprint, as everybody thought before. , �* ~ , ., before. isn't the most likely one this war aims _ before. isn't the most likely one this war aims as _ before. isn't the most likely one this war aims as some _ before. isn't the most likely one this war aims as some sort - before. isn't the most likely one this war aims as some sort of i before. isn't the most likely one - this war aims as some sort of peace negotiation over the territory that is already been taken by russia in which they keep some of the east of this country?— this country? we, in ukraine, still hoe this country? we, in ukraine, still ho -e and this country? we, in ukraine, still hepe and well _ this country? we, in ukraine, still hope and well pursue _ this country? we, in ukraine, still hope and well pursue getting - this country? we, in ukraine, stillj hope and well pursue getting back this territory, getting back our people. because there is no way for any politician, any ukrainian to see 0k, any politician, any ukrainian to see ok, this is what we will give up, because we don't want to give up, because we don't want to give up, because we don't want to give up, because we think that we can win and take it back, because we see what is happening to the people on this territory, you have seen yourself what happened in bucha, what is happening in mariupol, we don't want this for any of our citizens, for

anyone in the world, we don't, that is why we will be fighting for this territory, why we will try not to get into any peaceful negotiations. thank you very much. this is one for our military analystjustin bronk. a question to you as an airpower expert. josh has messaged in asking, "what is the most likely way this war will end? we are seeing the last major effort the peacetime russian mobilised army can make~ _ the peacetime russian mobilised army can make. they started out with about _ can make. they started out with about 168 — can make. they started out with about 168 battalion tactical groups the russian army can generate in and sustain _ the russian army can generate in and sustain. they deployed about 120 to ukraine~ _ sustain. they deployed about 120 to ukraine~ if_ sustain. they deployed about 120 to ukraine. if you look at the vehicle losses_ ukraine. if you look at the vehicle losses they— ukraine. if you look at the vehicle losses they have taken visually confront — losses they have taken visually confront about 3500, more than 600 tanks, _ confront about 3500, more than 600 tanks. 60 _ confront about 3500, more than 600 tanks, 60 of those 120 of their town

companies — tanks, 60 of those 120 of their town companies fully wiped out and if you look, _ companies fully wiped out and if you look. about— companies fully wiped out and if you look, about 15,000 estimated killed in action, _ look, about 15,000 estimated killed in action, probably three times that captured, _ in action, probably three times that captured, wounded and missing. this is a huge _ captured, wounded and missing. this is a huge proportion of an attacking force _ is a huge proportion of an attacking force and _ is a huge proportion of an attacking force and it — is a huge proportion of an attacking force and it will be disproportionately represented in the vehicle and infantry crews who make _ the vehicle and infantry crews who make up— the vehicle and infantry crews who make up quite a small proportion in terms _ make up quite a small proportion in terms of— make up quite a small proportion in terms of people. what the russians are doing _ terms of people. what the russians are doing in donbas is making, coming — are doing in donbas is making, coming up— are doing in donbas is making, coming up from around mariupol in the south, — coming up from around mariupol in the south, if they can do that and cut off— the south, if they can do that and cut off the — the south, if they can do that and cut off the forces which is looking increasingly unlikely, they might be able increasingly unlikely, they might be ahie to— increasingly unlikely, they might be able to stabilise a new contact from kharkiv— able to stabilise a new contact from kharkiv into the south. then settle into a _ kharkiv into the south. then settle into a war — kharkiv into the south. then settle into a war of attrition. if they cannot, — into a war of attrition. if they cannot, overthe into a war of attrition. if they cannot, over the next 23 weeks, the russian _ cannot, over the next 23 weeks, the russian regular army, largely a spent _ russian regular army, largely a spent force in terms of what it can sustain. _ spent force in terms of what it can sustain. the — spent force in terms of what it can sustain, the question is whether ukraine — sustain, the question is whether ukraine can force similar retreats from _ ukraine can force similar retreats from that— ukraine can force similar retreats from that occupy territory as we saw around _ from that occupy territory as we saw around kyiv— from that occupy territory as we saw around kyiv and kharkiv up in the north— around kyiv and kharkiv up in the north in— around kyiv and kharkiv up in the north in the — around kyiv and kharkiv up in the north in the first phase. a lot depends— north in the first phase. a lot depends on the next two weeks. thank

ou ve depends on the next two weeks. thank you very much — depends on the next two weeks. thank you very much indeed. _ "why are oil and gas supplies not shut off now? why wait?" nigel, somerset. the international perspective, what the european union and other nations around the world should do in terms of international pressure. yes. around the world should do in terms of international pressure.— of international pressure. yes, oil and as of international pressure. yes, oil and gas basically _ of international pressure. yes, oil and gas basically funds _ of international pressure. yes, oil and gas basically funds the - of international pressure. yes, oil and gas basically funds the war i and gas basically funds the war machine — and gas basically funds the war machine of— and gas basically funds the war machine of the _ and gas basically funds the war machine of the kremlin. - and gas basically funds the war machine of the kremlin. 1- and gas basically funds the war. machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros _ machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per— machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is _ machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is he _ machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is he is _ machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is he is paid _ machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is he is paid to - machine of the kremlin. 1 billion euros per is he is paid to russia| euros per is he is paid to russia from _ euros per is he is paid to russia from europe _ euros per is he is paid to russia from europe. and _ euros per is he is paid to russia from europe. and yet, - euros per is he is paid to russia from europe. and yet, this - euros per is he is paid to russia from europe. and yet, this is i euros per is he is paid to russia from europe. and yet, this is al euros per is he is paid to russia i from europe. and yet, this is a very difficult _ from europe. and yet, this is a very difficult and — from europe. and yet, this is a very difficult and divisive _ from europe. and yet, this is a very difficult and divisive question. - from europe. and yet, this is a very difficult and divisive question. we l difficult and divisive question. we have seen— difficult and divisive question. we have seen the _ difficult and divisive question. we have seen the latest _ difficult and divisive question. we have seen the latest wave - difficult and divisive question. we have seen the latest wave of i have seen the latest wave of sanctions _ have seen the latest wave of sanctions when _ have seen the latest wave of sanctions when the - have seen the latest wave of sanctions when the eu - have seen the latest wave of sanctions when the eu said i have seen the latest wave of| sanctions when the eu said it have seen the latest wave of - sanctions when the eu said it would basically— sanctions when the eu said it would basically phase _ sanctions when the eu said it would basically phase russian _ sanctions when the eu said it would basically phase russian oil- sanctions when the eu said it would basically phase russian oil crude i basically phase russian oil crude imports — basically phase russian oil crude imports in — basically phase russian oil crude imports in six _ basically phase russian oil crude imports in six months. _ basically phase russian oil crude imports in six months. this i basically phase russian oil crude imports in six months. this is i basically phase russian oil crude imports in six months. this is al basically phase russian oil crude i imports in six months. this is a big step. _ imports in six months. this is a big step. because _ imports in six months. this is a big step, because countries _ imports in six months. this is a big step, because countries like - imports in six months. this is a big i step, because countries like germany are very— step, because countries like germany are very dependent _ step, because countries like germany are very dependent on, _ step, because countries like germany are very dependent on, and _ are very dependent on, and especially— are very dependent on, and especially the _ are very dependent on, and especially the german i are very dependent on, and i especially the german economic are very dependent on, and _ especially the german economic mind, depends— especially the german economic mind, depends on— especially the german economic mind, depends on stable _ especially the german economic mind, depends on stable and _ especially the german economic mind, depends on stable and reliable - depends on stable and reliable energy— depends on stable and reliable energy supplies _ depends on stable and reliable energy supplies. and - depends on stable and reliable

energy supplies. and yet, i depends on stable and reliable i energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty. _ energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty, the _ energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty, the eu _ energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty, the eu has- energy supplies. and yet, despite this difficulty, the eu has been. this difficulty, the eu has been able _ this difficulty, the eu has been able to— this difficulty, the eu has been able to take _ this difficulty, the eu has been able to take this _ this difficulty, the eu has been able to take this enormous i this difficulty, the eu has beenl able to take this enormous step this difficulty, the eu has been- able to take this enormous step and this is— able to take this enormous step and this is not— able to take this enormous step and this is not an — able to take this enormous step and this is not an easy— able to take this enormous step and this is not an easy step _ able to take this enormous step and this is not an easy step to _ able to take this enormous step and this is not an easy step to take, i this is not an easy step to take, because — this is not an easy step to take, because the _ this is not an easy step to take, because the infrastructure i this is not an easy step to take, because the infrastructure to i this is not an easy step to take, i because the infrastructure to supply from russia — because the infrastructure to supply from russia to — because the infrastructure to supply from russia to europe _ because the infrastructure to supply from russia to europe has- because the infrastructure to supply from russia to europe has been- because the infrastructure to supplyl from russia to europe has been built since _ from russia to europe has been built since the _ from russia to europe has been built since the i970s~ _ from russia to europe has been built since the 1970s. that _ from russia to europe has been built since the 1970s. that dependence i from russia to europe has been built. since the 1970s. that dependence was used to— since the 1970s. that dependence was used to precisely— since the 1970s. that dependence was used to precisely dissuade _ since the 1970s. that dependence was used to precisely dissuade the - used to precisely dissuade the countries _ used to precisely dissuade the countries in _ used to precisely dissuade the countries in europe _ used to precisely dissuade the countries in europe to - used to precisely dissuade the countries in europe to actually stand — countries in europe to actually stand up— countries in europe to actually stand up to _ countries in europe to actually stand up to russia. _ countries in europe to actually stand up to russia. we - countries in europe to actually stand up to russia. we see i countries in europe to actually i stand up to russia. we see now poland — stand up to russia. we see now poland and _ stand up to russia. we see now poland and bulgaria _ stand up to russia. we see now poland and bulgaria being - stand up to russia. we see now- poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare _ poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare other— poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare other member— poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare other member states, - poland and bulgaria being punished, to scare other member states, but l to scare other member states, but poland _ to scare other member states, but poland has— to scare other member states, but poland has done _ to scare other member states, but poland has done its— to scare other member states, but poland has done its homework- to scare other member states, butj poland has done its homework and to scare other member states, but . poland has done its homework and it seems _ poland has done its homework and it seems that— poland has done its homework and it seems that other— poland has done its homework and it seems that other eu _ poland has done its homework and it seems that other eu member- poland has done its homework and it seems that other eu member states| seems that other eu member states are now— seems that other eu member states are now scrambling _ seems that other eu member states are now scrambling to _ seems that other eu member states are now scrambling to minimise i are now scrambling to minimise dependence _ are now scrambling to minimise dependence. what _ are now scrambling to minimise dependence. what was - are now scrambling to minimisej dependence. what was anything are now scrambling to minimise - dependence. what was anything about, inevitable _ dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two _ dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two months _ dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two months ago, _ dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two months ago, it _ dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two months ago, it is - dependence. what was anything about, inevitable two months ago, it is now. inevitable two months ago, it is now possible _ inevitable two months ago, it is now ossible. ., ~ inevitable two months ago, it is now ossible. ., ,, , ., ., ., inevitable two months ago, it is now ossible. ., ,, ., ., . ., possible. thank you for that. john sim son, possible. thank you for that. john simpson. we _ possible. thank you for that. john simpson, we have _ possible. thank you for that. john simpson, we have a _ possible. thank you for that. john simpson, we have a question. i morison kpaka, freetown, sierra leone. "what will happen if president putin

succeeds in invading mariupol?" i suppose the flip side of that question which i am adding in is what if he does not succeed, what if he fails with this invasion? i do not actually — he fails with this invasion? i do not actually think _ he fails with this invasion? i do not actually think he _ he fails with this invasion? i if not actually think he is going to succeed. but at least not in the terms he wants to. i think the parallel here is with stalin's invasion of finland in 1939 when they were certain the red army was just going to walk all over the fins. it did not happen. fins responded but could not finallyjust like ukraine, it is not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, so they lost some territory but they kept their independence. i think thatis kept their independence. i think that is the most likely outcome. but it could end in different ways. it could end with just a long it could end in different ways. it could end withjust a long better years and years of —— picture data

flare up from time to time or the really dangerous possibility that president putin might simply lose patience and start to use tactical nuclear weapons. to be honest, if that happens, then all bets are off and i don't know where we, what might happen. but my guess is that won't happen, that president putin will declare victory at some stage and walk away and tell the russian people that it has been a fantastic success. , ., ., ~ people that it has been a fantastic success. , ., . ~ , ., y people that it has been a fantastic success. , ., . ~ , ., , . mark, in ilkley asks, "an the average small towns "in the average small towns and villages away from the donbas, or other contested areas, is life relatively normal?" is there any kind of normality in the areas of this country that are

not at the centre of the fighting? as you have seen, recently, there were attacks on the western ukrainian cities such as lviv and the outskirts. so putin is telling us there is no place in ukraine where you can feel safe. there is nowhere you can feel normal, you can move your business, live your normal life. the hit on the western part of ukraine recently also says the same thing. so no, right now, there is no normality. everybody is trying to support our army the best we can and sending the product, support, whatever we can get to the front. we are getting a lot of refugees coming from the eastern part to the western part and every ukrainian is opening their homes to the people who lost their homes to the people who lost their homes to the people who lost their homes at war. so there is no normality and there will not be until we win.— normality and there will not be until we win. ., ,, i. , . until we win. thank you very much indeed. until we win. thank you very much indeed- back _ until we win. thank you very much indeed. back to _ until we win. thank you very much indeed. back to a _ until we win. thank you very much indeed. back to a defence - until we win. thank you very much indeed. back to a defence and i

indeed. back to a defence and military expert. this is a question about airpower. "when will ukraine be able to defend itself from these horrible air strikes, without sufficient war planes of their own? " cairn, sweden. what do you say about airpower and the struggle for airpower in this country at the moment? it is quite interesting — country at the moment? it is quite interesting that _ country at the moment? it is quite interesting that what _ country at the moment? it is quite interesting that what are - country at the moment? it is quite interesting that what are often i interesting that what are often reported — interesting that what are often reported as air strikes throughout the country including as we heard in lviv and _ the country including as we heard in lviv and other parts of the west as well as— lviv and other parts of the west as well as kyiv, are mostly cruise missile — well as kyiv, are mostly cruise missile and ballistic missile strikes. _ missile and ballistic missile strikes, mostly what we would term stand-off— strikes, mostly what we would term stand—off missile strikes, because russia _ stand—off missile strikes, because russia does not have the ability to conduct _ russia does not have the ability to conduct air— russia does not have the ability to conduct air strikes with aircraft deep _ conduct air strikes with aircraft deep into— conduct air strikes with aircraft deep into ukraine, because ukraine still maintains a significant capacity— still maintains a significant capacity to depict defend its own airspace — capacity to depict defend its own airspace. primarily with surface to airspace. primarily with surface to air missiles, — airspace. primarily with surface to air missiles, long—range systems which _ air missiles, long—range systems which were — air missiles, long—range systems which were somewhat effective in the first week _ which were somewhat effective in the first week in particular who

although had recently supplies, as well as— although had recently supplies, as well as a _ although had recently supplies, as well as a lot of elevens, fifteens and short—term and medium—range systems— and short—term and medium—range systems which are mobile and difficult — systems which are mobile and difficult for the russians to hit. the russians cannot hit at mobile and high—level at most of the country— and high—level at most of the country so little resorted to a lot of low—level attacks. what we saw in the air— of low—level attacks. what we saw in the air strikes have been set is very— the air strikes have been set is very close _ the air strikes have been set is very close to russian —controlled airspace — very close to russian —controlled airspace and at night with unguided weapons _ airspace and at night with unguided weapons and low level, mariupol, sharkey's, — weapons and low level, mariupol, sharkey's, chernihiv, —— kharkiv. in donbas, _ sharkey's, chernihiv, —— kharkiv. in donbas, what— sharkey's, chernihiv, —— kharkiv. in donbas, what is happening is that most _ donbas, what is happening is that most areas have a denial, short range _ most areas have a denial, short range some systems have taken more, the russians— range some systems have taken more, the russians have more ability to operate _ the russians have more ability to operate in — the russians have more ability to operate in the medium and high altitude — operate in the medium and high altitude area but have to come now to have _ altitude area but have to come now to have a _ altitude area but have to come now to have a battlefield effect because they don't have enough precision guided _ they don't have enough precision guided munitions so they have to come _ guided munitions so they have to come low— guided munitions so they have to come low so the shoulder fired

systems— come low so the shoulder fired systems are very effective. while the russians have a degree of air superiority — the russians have a degree of air superiority in donbas and the south around _ superiority in donbas and the south around mariupol, they struggle to use it _ around mariupol, they struggle to use it to— around mariupol, they struggle to use it to hit targets that are not fixed _ use it to hit targets that are not fixed or— use it to hit targets that are not fixed or in— use it to hit targets that are not fixed or in cities. on the battlefield it does not matter as much _ battlefield it does not matter as much and the ukrainians are shooting down _ much and the ukrainians are shooting down a _ much and the ukrainians are shooting down a lot— much and the ukrainians are shooting down a lot of aircraft. for the ukrainian _ down a lot of aircraft. for the ukrainian air force it's difficult to operate more than at low level because _ to operate more than at low level because russia has a lot of systems, lon- because russia has a lot of systems, long medium and short range, as well as fighter— long medium and short range, as well as fighter patrols on their border. there _ as fighter patrols on their border. there is— as fighter patrols on their border. there is neutral airspace denial going _ there is neutral airspace denial going on — there is neutral airspace denial auoin on. g , there is neutral airspace denial auoin on. , ., ,, there is neutral airspace denial uuoinon. , ., ., going on. justin, thank you for that. going on. justin, thank you for that- this _ going on. justin, thank you for that. this is — going on. justin, thank you for that. this is about _ going on. justin, thank you for that. this is about belarus, i that. this is about belarus, russia's ally and it has been important to russia during all of this. barrie tucker asks, "are the belarusian military willing to both invade and fight their previously peaceful ukrainian neighbour on putin's behalf? we've also had questions asking whether belarus civilians back their government's

support for russia. what do you think of that? do you think belarus will send in troops at any stage to help the russians in this war? , ., ., , this war? there is no doubt whatsoever _ this war? there is no doubt whatsoever that _ this war? there is no doubt whatsoever that president | this war? there is no doubt i whatsoever that president putin would _ whatsoever that president putin would like — whatsoever that president putin would like belarus _ whatsoever that president putin would like belarus to _ whatsoever that president putin would like belarus to step - whatsoever that president putin would like belarus to step in i whatsoever that president putin would like belarus to step in toi would like belarus to step in to support, — would like belarus to step in to support. but— would like belarus to step in to support. but it _ would like belarus to step in to support, but it is _ would like belarus to step in to support, but it is a _ would like belarus to step in to support, but it is a very- would like belarus to step in to| support, but it is a very difficult situation — support, but it is a very difficult situation for— support, but it is a very difficult situation for president - support, but it is a very difficult i situation for president lukashenko who is— situation for president lukashenko who is in— situation for president lukashenko who is in a — situation for president lukashenko who is in a very— situation for president lukashenko who is in a very difficult _ who is in a very difficult situation, _ who is in a very difficult situation, because i who is in a very difficult situation, because thisl who is in a very difficult i situation, because this war is unpopular~ _ situation, because this war is unpopular. belarusian- situation, because this war is| unpopular. belarusian people situation, because this war is i unpopular. belarusian people are very pacifist. _ unpopular. belarusian people are very pacifist, they— unpopular. belarusian people are very pacifist, they hate _ unpopular. belarusian people are very pacifist, they hate war, i very pacifist, they hate war, because _ very pacifist, they hate war, because there _ very pacifist, they hate war, because there were - very pacifist, they hate war, because there were the i very pacifist, they hate war, - because there were the battleground of the _ because there were the battleground of the second — because there were the battleground of the second world _ because there were the battleground of the second world war. _ because there were the battleground of the second world war. the - because there were the battleground of the second world war. the war. of the second world war. the war against _ of the second world war. the war against ukraine— of the second world war. the war against ukraine is— of the second world war. the war against ukraine is very— of the second world war. the war against ukraine is very unpopularl against ukraine is very unpopular and lukashenko— against ukraine is very unpopular and lukashenko has— against ukraine is very unpopular and lukashenko has to _ against ukraine is very unpopular and lukashenko has to be - against ukraine is very unpopular and lukashenko has to be very. and lukashenko has to be very careful— and lukashenko has to be very careful about _ and lukashenko has to be very careful about unpacking - and lukashenko has to be very- careful about unpacking antagonising because _ careful about unpacking antagonising because he _ careful about unpacking antagonising because he will— careful about unpacking antagonising because he will see _ careful about unpacking antagonising because he will see protests- careful about unpacking antagonising because he will see protests again i because he will see protests again but there is no doubt— but there is no doubt the russian was using — but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus— but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus so— but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus so in— but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus so in a - but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus so in a way- but there is no doubt the russian was using belarus so in a way it i but there is no doubt the russianl was using belarus so in a way it is party— was using belarus so in a way it is party to— was using belarus so in a way it is party to the — was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war _ was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war but _ was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war but it _ was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war but it is - was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war but it is only i was using belarus so in a way it is party to the war but it is only so l party to the war but it is only so far as _ party to the war but it is only so far as lukashenko— party to the war but it is only so far as lukashenko can _ party to the war but it is only so far as lukashenko can push i party to the war but it is only so i far as lukashenko can push without reigniting _ far as lukashenko can push without reigniting popular— far as lukashenko can push without reigniting popular protests - far as lukashenko can push without reigniting popular protests and i far as lukashenko can push without reigniting popular protests and wel reigniting popular protests and we have seen— reigniting popular protests and we have seen some _ reigniting popular protests and we have seen some saboteur- reigniting popular protests and we have seen some saboteur activityl have seen some saboteur activity from _ have seen some saboteur activity

from belarus. _ have seen some saboteur activity from belarus. so _ have seen some saboteur activity from belarus, so we _ have seen some saboteur activity from belarus, so we know- have seen some saboteur activity from belarus, so we know that i from belarus, so we know that belarus — from belarus, so we know that belarus is _ from belarus, so we know that belarus is not _ from belarus, so we know that belarus is not a _ from belarus, so we know that belarus is not a reliable - from belarus, so we know that belarus is not a reliable ally. from belarus, so we know that| belarus is not a reliable ally for russia — belarus is not a reliable ally for russia l— belarus is not a reliable ally for russia. ~ belarus is not a reliable ally for russia. ,, , ., ., ., , russia. i think you want to “ump in and talk about i russia. i think you want to “ump in and talk about belarus? i russia. i think you want to jump in and talk about belarus? right, i russia. i think you want to jump in and talk about belarus? right, sol and talk about belarus? right, so there is a huge — and talk about belarus? right, so there is a huge difference - and talk about belarus? right, so| there is a huge difference between russia and its actions and their internal situation and belarus, because we have seen protests throughout the last two years in belarus and their opposition is growing stronger and stronger. there are even military forces from belarus that came here to ukraine to fight for us, to fight potentially against their own people, if they will attack ukraine. so there is a huge difference and we should not put them into the same bracket. lukashenko will be very careful and he will try to get in good with putin before he jumps he will try to get in good with putin before hejumps into the war. they will continue firing missiles from belarusian to literary, these will have observed over the days,

but announcing the war bringing official forces and will probably cause lukashenko his place. little back to john _ cause lukashenko his place. little back to john simpson. _ suzie russell in france asks, "is it unrealistic to assume that whatever the outcome of the war, putin will ultimately be tried by an independent international legal process and held accountable for the war crimes committed in the ukraine?" do you think putin or any of his people, any of his generals or anybody on the russian side will ever be held accountable, will ever face justice for the allegations of war crime? i face justice for the allegations of war crime?— face justice for the allegations of war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, _ war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, and _ war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, and power- war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, and power in i war crime? i think while vladimir putin is strong, and power in and has the support of russian people, which he seems to have at the

moment, of course he is very strong at present, there is absolutely no question of anything like that happening. but if you recall what happened in serbia after the nato bombing of 1999, the president, no question he might be tried for human right violations or anything like it, but what happened was he was overthrown. his successor in order to reset the relationships with the west agreed to let him go to the hague to be tried. he died there. and the bosnian serb leaders too, where and are now serving long sentences. the question really is will somebody get rid of vladimir

putin and he is, he will now look weaker. there will be people within the political structure, within russia, who will say this was all a terrible mistake, it is all his fault, and we must do something about it. you can never guarantee what might happen under those circumstances, but there is definitely a possibility that he will be overthrown and i think there is a strong possibility that he, generals, ministers, colonels, soldiers, who have carried out appalling war crimes, will be on trial and we know now who many of them are. the people that did the appalling crimes in bucha for instance, we have got their photographs, we have got their names, and one day, my feeling is one day we will see them tried. john, thank you for that. my guest here with me is the leader of the holos party

the ukrainian mp kira rudyk. julie asks, "what will happen if putin takes all or significant parts of ukraine?" could you imagine he could take over the whole country? that was his initial ambition, the whole country? that was his initialambition, it seemed. he wanted to come here to kyiv, but that did not work. can you imagine a day when he takes the whole country? i cannot. but if he takes the most of the country, it would mean that most ukrainians are dead, because we will resist, we will not let him happen. it will also mean that the western world who is supporting us and we see the whole world, all democratic leaders and countries are supporting us. if putin takes a whole of ukraine, it would mean that the rest of the western countries failed and he could do whatever he wants. you can move further and as he set himself, he can rebuild the russian empire. i don't want to talk about negativity here, i want to talk about what we will do to resist

and diameter assuring you that every ukrainian will be fighting until the end to make sure it will never happen. end to make sure it will never ha en. , , ., end to make sure it will never hauen. , ,., ., end to make sure it will never hauen. , ,., ._ , paul whitlock wants to know, "why doesn't ukraine attack russia behind their military lines, so as to stop them bringing in reinforcements?" or maybe you thinkjustin they are already attacking the russians behind their lines?— already attacking the russians behind their lines? yes, this is an area where _ behind their lines? yes, this is an area where naturally _ behind their lines? yes, this is an area where naturally even - behind their lines? yes, this is an area where naturally even where l area where naturally even where western — area where naturally even where western journalists and ukrainian journalists are aware of operations that are _ journalists are aware of operations that are going on, they tend not to report— that are going on, they tend not to report on— that are going on, they tend not to report on them for the precise reason — report on them for the precise reason that teams operating behind on enemy— reason that teams operating behind on enemy lines are at high risk because — on enemy lines are at high risk because they are small teams and can, if— because they are small teams and can, if they— because they are small teams and can, if they are found be easily overwhelmed. there is an intentional lack of— overwhelmed. there is an intentional lack of reporting on a lot of those activities —

lack of reporting on a lot of those activities. one, what we now know openly, _ activities. one, what we now know openly, one — activities. one, what we now know openly, one of the absolutely key activities — openly, one of the absolutely key activities which enabled ukraine to defeat _ activities which enabled ukraine to defeat these thrusts down to kyiv from _ defeat these thrusts down to kyiv from the — defeat these thrusts down to kyiv from the north—west and north—east in the _ from the north—west and north—east in the first— from the north—west and north—east in the first phase of the war was the use — in the first phase of the war was the use of— in the first phase of the war was the use of lots of small light infantry— the use of lots of small light infantry teams with portable anti—tank weapons, calling on artillery— anti—tank weapons, calling on artillery strikes often with uavs. and cached supplies all over that area which ukraine spent a lot of time _ area which ukraine spent a lot of time preparing for the defence of kyiv for— time preparing for the defence of kyiv for such an eventuality. that proved _ kyiv for such an eventuality. that proved extremely effective, it delayed — proved extremely effective, it delayed the russian so long that they could not actually build up decisive — they could not actually build up decisive combat capability. because of courses— decisive combat capability. because of courses forces do not just reguire _ of courses forces do not just require fuel, ammunition and food to advance _ require fuel, ammunition and food to advance. they need fuel, ammunition and food _ advance. they need fuel, ammunition and food just to stay where they are because _ and food just to stay where they are because there is a rate of consumption for forces that are forward — consumption for forces that are forward in — consumption for forces that are forward in ukraine anyway. interdicting supply lines is key, it's one — interdicting supply lines is key, it's one of— interdicting supply lines is key, it's one of the key parts of ukrainian _ it's one of the key parts of ukrainian strategy and on our larger

scale, _ ukrainian strategy and on our larger scale. one _ ukrainian strategy and on our larger scale, one of the core ukrainian military— scale, one of the core ukrainian military operations is attempting to advance _ military operations is attempting to advance and a counteroffensive to the east _ advance and a counteroffensive to the east of — advance and a counteroffensive to the east of kharkiv to cut off the russians — the east of kharkiv to cut off the russians main supplies down towards the access— russians main supplies down towards the access of the russian northern advance _ the access of the russian northern advance down to donbas. also attacking — advance down to donbas. also attacking around kherson. they have captured _ attacking around kherson. they have captured a _ attacking around kherson. they have captured a lot of equipment, although they often lack trained crews— although they often lack trained crews so— although they often lack trained crews so it will take them time to build _ crews so it will take them time to build them — crews so it will take them time to build them up to a usable force. we have a _ build them up to a usable force. we have a lot _ build them up to a usable force. we have a lot of— build them up to a usable force. we have a lot of light infantry, those are brilliant for defence and particularly in wooded and urban areas _ particularly in wooded and urban areas but — particularly in wooded and urban areas but in attack if you attack front _ areas but in attack if you attack front line — areas but in attack if you attack front line positions, they tend to suffer— front line positions, they tend to suffer a — front line positions, they tend to suffer a lot to artillery and armoured vehicles. again, infiltrating the front lines where there _ infiltrating the front lines where there is— infiltrating the front lines where there is weakness and russian forces don't _ there is weakness and russian forces don't have _ there is weakness and russian forces don't have enough force to fully man their entire _ don't have enough force to fully man their entire frontage and going after— their entire frontage and going after those supply lines is absolutely key and something i'm sure ukraine is doing on a

large—scale, potentially notjust in ukraine — large-scale, potentially not 'ust in ukraine, . large-scale, potentially not 'ust in ukraine,. ., ,. ., large-scale, potentially not 'ust in ukraine,. ., , , kataryna, herve, in france wants to know what is happening inside russian society. they ask, "isn't there any means to let russian people know more about all the lies from dictator putin, with all the technologies at our disposal?" it is an interesting question because in the age of the internet, you wonder whether people do understand what is really happening in ukraine orare understand what is really happening in ukraine or are theyjust being spoon—fed all the information from putin and the kremlin and state television and the media which he so tightly controls now?— tightly controls now? indeed. the russian propaganda _ tightly controls now? indeed. the russian propaganda has - tightly controls now? indeed. the russian propaganda has been i russian propaganda has been

functioning _ russian propaganda has been functioning on— russian propaganda has been functioning on steroids - russian propaganda has been functioning on steroids for. russian propaganda has been| functioning on steroids for the russian propaganda has been i functioning on steroids for the last two months — functioning on steroids for the last two months. it's— functioning on steroids for the last two months. it's very _ functioning on steroids for the last two months. it's very difficult - functioning on steroids for the last two months. it's very difficult to l two months. it's very difficult to escape — two months. it's very difficult to escape it— two months. it's very difficult to escape it and _ two months. it's very difficult to escape it and yet _ two months. it's very difficult to escape it and yet if— two months. it's very difficult to escape it and yet if people - two months. it's very difficult to escape it and yet if people want| two months. it's very difficult to . escape it and yet if people want to find out _ escape it and yet if people want to find out what's _ escape it and yet if people want to find out what's going _ escape it and yet if people want to find out what's going on _ escape it and yet if people want to find out what's going on and - escape it and yet if people want to find out what's going on and theyi find out what's going on and they do, they— find out what's going on and they do, they actually, _ find out what's going on and they do, they actually, it _ find out what's going on and they do, they actually, it is _ find out what's going on and they do, they actually, it is possible . do, they actually, it is possible and even — do, they actually, it is possible and even the _ do, they actually, it is possible and even the spokesman - do, they actually, it is possible and even the spokesman of- do, they actually, it is possible l and even the spokesman of from do, they actually, it is possible - and even the spokesman of from the kremlin— and even the spokesman of from the kremlin says — and even the spokesman of from the kremlin says he _ and even the spokesman of from the kremlin says he uses _ and even the spokesman of from the kremlin says he uses alternative - kremlin says he uses alternative means— kremlin says he uses alternative means of— kremlin says he uses alternative means of accessing _ kremlin says he uses alternative means of accessing the - kremlin says he uses alternative| means of accessing the internet. however. — means of accessing the internet. however. two _ means of accessing the internet. however, two questions. - means of accessing the internet. however, two questions. do - means of accessing the internet. | however, two questions. do they really— however, two questions. do they really want — however, two questions. do they really want to _ however, two questions. do they really want to find _ however, two questions. do they really want to find out, _ however, two questions. do they really want to find out, we - however, two questions. do they really want to find out, we knowi however, two questions. do they. really want to find out, we know the older _ really want to find out, we know the older generation _ really want to find out, we know the older generation is _ really want to find out, we know the older generation is very— really want to find out, we know the older generation is very supportive, | older generation is very supportive, especially— older generation is very supportive, especially from _ older generation is very supportive, especially from more _ older generation is very supportive, especially from more poor- older generation is very supportive, especially from more poor areas - especially from more poor areas outside — especially from more poor areas outside moscow— especially from more poor areas outside moscow and _ especially from more poor areas outside moscow and there - especially from more poor areas outside moscow and there are l outside moscow and there are actually — outside moscow and there are actually keen. _ outside moscow and there are actually keen, they _ outside moscow and there are actually keen, they want - outside moscow and there are actually keen, they want to i outside moscow and there are - actually keen, they want to believe everything — actually keen, they want to believe everything outside, _ actually keen, they want to believe everything outside, that— actually keen, they want to believe everything outside, that is- actually keen, they want to believe everything outside, that is said - everything outside, that is said about— everything outside, that is said about russia _ everything outside, that is said about russia ukraine _ everything outside, that is said about russia ukraine and - everything outside, that is said about russia ukraine and the l everything outside, that is said - about russia ukraine and the west. who is— about russia ukraine and the west. who is the — about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good _ about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good guy— about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good guy and _ about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good guy and who - about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good guy and who is- about russia ukraine and the west. who is the good guy and who is the| who is the good guy and who is the villain _ who is the good guy and who is the villain but— who is the good guy and who is the villain. but even _ who is the good guy and who is the villain. but even those _ who is the good guy and who is the villain. but even those who - who is the good guy and who is the villain. but even those who know. villain. but even those who know what _ villain. but even those who know what is _ villain. but even those who know what is happening, _ villain. but even those who know what is happening, what - villain. but even those who know what is happening, what are - villain. but even those who know| what is happening, what are they going _ what is happening, what are they going to, — what is happening, what are they going to, if— what is happening, what are they going to, if they— what is happening, what are they going to, if they know, _ what is happening, what are they going to, if they know, what - what is happening, what are they going to, if they know, what arei going to, if they know, what are they— going to, if they know, what are they going — going to, if they know, what are they going to _ going to, if they know, what are they going to do? _ going to, if they know, what are they going to do? there - going to, if they know, what are they going to do? there is - going to, if they know, what are they going to do? there is a - going to, if they know, what are . they going to do? there is a sense of despair— they going to do? there is a sense of despair and _ they going to do? there is a sense of despair and hopelessness - they going to do? there is a sense of despair and hopelessness in - of despair and hopelessness in russia — of despair and hopelessness in russia the _ of despair and hopelessness in russia. the regime _ of despair and hopelessness in russia. the regime has - of despair and hopelessness in i russia. the regime has nurtured of despair and hopelessness in - russia. the regime has nurtured a sense _ russia. the regime has nurtured a sense of— russia. the regime has nurtured a sense of passivity _ russia. the regime has nurtured a sense of passivity and _ russia. the regime has nurtured ai sense of passivity and resignation. having _ sense of passivity and resignation. having said — sense of passivity and resignation. having said that, _ sense of passivity and resignation. having said that, despite - sense of passivity and resignation. having said that, despite this- having said that, despite this general— having said that, despite this general sense _ having said that, despite this general sense of— having said that, despite this general sense of despair, - having said that, despite this general sense of despair, we| having said that, despite this- general sense of despair, we have actually— general sense of despair, we have actually seen _

general sense of despair, we have actually seen a _ general sense of despair, we have actually seen a series _ general sense of despair, we have actually seen a series of— general sense of despair, we have i actually seen a series of mysterious explosions — actually seen a series of mysterious explosions in — actually seen a series of mysterious explosions in various _ actually seen a series of mysterious explosions in various defence - explosions in various defence facilities _ explosions in various defence facilities across— explosions in various defence facilities across russia. - explosions in various defence facilities across russia. it - explosions in various defence i facilities across russia. it seems there _ facilities across russia. it seems there are — facilities across russia. it seems there are some _ facilities across russia. it seems there are some forces _ facilities across russia. it seemsi there are some forces galvanising because _ there are some forces galvanising because we — there are some forces galvanising because we actually— there are some forces galvanising because we actually do _ there are some forces galvanising because we actually do not - there are some forces galvanising because we actually do not knowi there are some forces galvanising - because we actually do not know who is behind _ because we actually do not know who is behind those _ because we actually do not know who is behind those mysterious— because we actually do not know who is behind those mysterious fires. - is behind those mysterious fires. the thing — is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to— is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to watch _ is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to watch is _ is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to watch is if— is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to watch is if and - is behind those mysterious fires. the thing to watch is if and wheni the thing to watch is if and when mass _ the thing to watch is if and when mass mobilisation _ the thing to watch is if and when mass mobilisation is _ the thing to watch is if and when mass mobilisation is announcedi mass mobilisation is announced because — mass mobilisation is announced because the _ mass mobilisation is announced because the regime _ mass mobilisation is announced because the regime is- mass mobilisation is announced because the regime is clearly. because the regime is clearly nervous _ because the regime is clearly nervous about— because the regime is clearly nervous about this _ because the regime is clearly nervous about this mass - because the regime is clearly- nervous about this mass mobilisation and there _ nervous about this mass mobilisation and there is— nervous about this mass mobilisation and there is no— nervous about this mass mobilisation and there is no enthusiasm _ nervous about this mass mobilisation and there is no enthusiasm for- nervous about this mass mobilisation and there is no enthusiasm for an- and there is no enthusiasm for an all-out— and there is no enthusiasm for an all-out war— and there is no enthusiasm for an all—out war against _ and there is no enthusiasm for an all—out war against ukraine - and there is no enthusiasm for an all—out war against ukraine and l and there is no enthusiasm for an. all—out war against ukraine and the west _ all—out war against ukraine and the west this— all—out war against ukraine and the west this is— all—out war against ukraine and the west. this is something _ all—out war against ukraine and the west. this is something that- all—out war against ukraine and the west. this is something that the i west. this is something that the regime _ west. this is something that the regime is — west. this is something that the regime is very— west. this is something that the regime is very careful _ west. this is something that the regime is very careful and - west. this is something that the regime is very careful and there| west. this is something that the. regime is very careful and there is no doubt — regime is very careful and there is no doubt it— regime is very careful and there is no doubt it is— regime is very careful and there is no doubt it is a _ regime is very careful and there is no doubt it is a lot _ regime is very careful and there is no doubt it is a lot of— regime is very careful and there is no doubt it is a lot of head - no doubt it is a lot of head scratching _ no doubt it is a lot of head scratching at _ no doubt it is a lot of head scratching at the - no doubt it is a lot of head scratching at the moment| no doubt it is a lot of head i scratching at the moment in no doubt it is a lot of head - scratching at the moment in the kremlin— scratching at the moment in the kremlin thinking _ scratching at the moment in the kremlin thinking what _ scratching at the moment in the kremlin thinking what to - scratching at the moment in the kremlin thinking what to do. - scratching at the moment in the l kremlin thinking what to do. 0k, thank you _ kremlin thinking what to do. 0k, thank you i _ kremlin thinking what to do. 0k, thank you. i want _ kremlin thinking what to do. 0k, thank you. i want to _ kremlin thinking what to do. thank you. i want to thank my kremlin thinking what to do.“ thank you. i want to thank my guests because we are out of time.

i'll leave you with some images filmed by my cameraman duncan stone, when we went to bucha and irpin just north of here, to see for ourselves some of the devastation left behind by the russian troops who were here for a few weeks after the invasion, before being driven back. we saw where the many hundreds of people who died here are buried in a cemetery that stretches as far as the eye can see, with new graves, some of them containing the bodies of victims of alleged war crimes. where families of the dead are still morning.

you've been watching your questions answered. hello and good afternoon. the sunshine has been more abundant today, so quite warm more widely. temperatures getting up to 20 or 21 which is a little bit above where it should be this time of year but it has not been the case everywhere. quite a bit more cloud for the north, why? we have these weather fronts sitting towards the north. we have also got some rain on those weather fronts across scotland, one or two showers just breaking out across england and wales and as we go through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, we will see popping up elsewhere but it is warm. it is even warmer across the eastern side of scotland with more cloud

around, so it is warm air across as at the moment. that warm air sweeping the uk will continue its presence through friday and the weekend. most have the potential to see temperatures into the high teens and low 20s. we have got rather more cloud and with that the rain starts to pep up overnight. looks quite wet for parts of scotland and northern ireland. any showers will fade away, drizzly conditions potentially in western coasts and mist will clear elsewhere and that is when we will see the best of the afternoon and morning sunshine. for wetter day here, brightening up to the north of it and still that sunshine hanging on. strong sunshine once again at high levels of pollen in the sunny areas in the south but not as widely high. tree pollen mostly but the grass pollen starting now. as we go

through friday night, that weather front likely to push its way south and clear away. uncertainty how much rain we will see but with high pressure around it looks as if we won't see much appreciable rain in the south. saturday brings a lot of cloud. a few spits and spots around, perhaps east coast thick cloud but for many, dry bright, feeling warm in the sunshine in and similarly so on sunday though we have another weather front trying to spoil that. we need the rain, it has been so dry. coinciding with the weekend. try unsettled weather on the cards for many. a couple of days off. it could get even warmer next week.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 5pm... interest rates rise to 1% — their highest level since 2009. the governor of the bank of england says they could rise further, as the bank tries to deal with soaring inflation. because of this very, very narrow path that we are on, we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in the bank rate, but it depends how the economy evolves. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year — its highest—ever quarterly figure. the mother of baby p — the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse — is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly.

ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group