this is bbc news. the headlines at 5pm... interest rates rise to 1% — their highest level since 2009. the governor of the bank of england says they could rise further, as the bank tries to deal with soaring inflation. because of this very, very narrow path that we are on, we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in the bank rate, but it depends how the economy evolves. profits at energy giant shell almost triple to £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year — its highest—ever quarterly figure. the mother of baby p — the toddler who died in 2007 after months of abuse — is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly.

ukraine says russia is "trying to destroy" the last group of soldiers holding the azovstal steelworks in mariupol. but the kremlin denies storming the complex. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths around the world. that's according to new research by the world health organization, which reveals the true death toll from covid—19. if you don't count it, then it doesn't matter and i think here what we are trying to do is put numbers to this that we can see that each life matters. how many of these deaths could have been prevented, how do we do better next time? and scientists monitoring birds in an oxford woodland say they think spring now comes three weeks earlier than it used to in the 1940s.

good afternoon, welcome to bbc news. the bank of england has increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, taking them to 1%, as it tries to slow the rise in prices. it predicts inflation will rise to more than 10% this year — the highest rate since 1982. in a gloomy assessment, the bank has also forecast the economy will contract next year, leaving the uk facing a period of so—called "stagflation" — when prices rise quickly, but economic growth is slow. here's our economics correspondent andy verity. the global economy reopening after a pandemic and a war in ukraine — don't ask what that has got to do with the price of cheese. the answer is everything. prices are going up weekly, you know? milk prices have gone up vastly in the last three or four months, butter is going up £5 a case, and then it has gone up another £5 a case.

which, 0k, it is good forfarmers, they are getting a decent price for their milk. but the knock—on effect is it is costing more to produce. because the electric costs have gone up, feed costs have gone up, fertiliser has gone up. so it is just a vicious circle at the moment. the inflation is global, and so was the reaction, with the us central bank, the federal reserve, hiking rates faster than they have in 22 years. inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing. and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down. today, the bank of england raised interest rates for the fourth time in a row, the first time that has happened since 2007. global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply in the build up to and following the invasion. this has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world growth. this is what the bank of england's official interest rate is now, the highest in 13 years. but not very high, because for the last 13 years they have been at emergency rates.

look at the historic average for the bank of england's rate, 7.2%. then if you look at the highest it has been, in 1979, 17%. interest rates, when inflation was last this high, 30 years ago, were nearly 10%. but economists don't think today's still super—low rates will get anywhere near that. markets are expecting the interest rate to reach 2.5% by the end of this year, which we think is probably too high. raising interest rates is meant to cool down the economy by making it more expensive to borrow cash to spend or invest. but in the streets outside the shop in central nottingham, businesses are already struggling with tight consumer purse strings. we are going to give it this year to see if it picks up any. if not, then... you are going to give up? i am going to think twice, i can't keep living on my savings. the risk in the coming months is that we go through the worst inflation in decades in the midst of a sharp economic slowdown.

if higher interest rates are meant to put consumers off spending, soaring energy bills may have already done thatjob. andy verity, bbc news. well, a short time ago, economics editor faisal islam sat down with the bank of england governor andrew bailey. we can see a case in which there will need to be a further rise in the bank rate, but it depends how the economy evolves, frankly, and so the one thing i can always say about the mpc is there will be another meeting. and i say that quite seriously because we will have to come back in about six weeks�* time and reassess all the evidence again. and, because the situation is so unprecedented, that reassessment is particularly important because we are seeing things that have not been seen before.

this seems to be a situation with stagflation happening this year. we are stagflation happening this year. - are at a very difficult moment and i've used this analogy before. we are walking a very narrow path between, on the one side, inflation which of course is far higher than it should be and you want it to be. an the other side, because we are being hit by very big external shocks which are causing, largely causing inflation, they are so big they are causing a real loss of income to people and businesses in the country, the balancing of those two things, the big increase of inflation, and the big — what we expected to be, unfortunately — hit to real income. is very difficult. they seem to be well below the inflation rates are worrying about. so what's the big worry about wage

inflation spiralling? it’s so what's the big worry about wage inflation spiralling?— inflation spiralling? it's true that both price setting _ inflation spiralling? it's true that both price setting and _ inflation spiralling? it's true that both price setting and ways - inflation spiralling? it's true that both price setting and ways to i inflation spiralling? it's true that. both price setting and ways to make a wage setting. if you try to get ahead of inflation, that will cause inflation. i'm trying to emphasise a point i've made several times — that will hurt least well off in society. we need to be very, very aware of that. ~ ., ., we need to be very, very aware of that. . ., ., ., we need to be very, very aware of that. ~ ., ., ., ., ~ that. what about savings? you talk about how tough _ that. what about savings? you talk about how tough it _ that. what about savings? you talk about how tough it will _ that. what about savings? you talk about how tough it will be - that. what about savings? you talk about how tough it will be for - about how tough it will be for people. essentially millions of households will have to dip into savings to get through the next year, in this very tight recessionary picture. year, in this very tight recessiona icture. ., ., recessionary picture. covid led to an unexpected — recessionary picture. covid led to an unexpected increase - recessionary picture. covid led to an unexpected increase in - recessionary picture. covid led to i an unexpected increase in savings. the least well off in society probably also don't have the savings. but for many people, there was an increase in savings during the government period. i'm not saying you should do this or that, but one of the things we've watched

is, how are people responding? will they use those savings to take them through more of this period of squeeze on real incomes? we don't know a lot about that at the moment because it is both the increase in savings and squeeze on real incomes is unprecedented. and you watch more of faisal�*s interview on the bbc news at 6pm tonight. now let's speak with linda yueh, economist and author of the great economists. professor, no less, we should call her, to give her her proper title. thanks so much forjoining us. what's your view of this interest rate rise by the bank of england? how inevitable was it? i rate rise by the bank of england? how inevitable was it?— how inevitable was it? i think it was very much _ how inevitable was it? i think it was very much expected, - how inevitable was it? i think it i was very much expected, because inflation — they are basing their forecast on a pretty standard inflation increase to over 10% by the autumn. so by raising it to 1%,

what they're trying to do is essentially show that they are trying to control inflation expectations — in other words, they know inflation rates have been at record levels, and by signalling to raise it, they arejust record levels, and by signalling to raise it, they are just trying to show that they are acting. but they will also be very conscious of the fact that they can't actually raise it by too much too quickly because the other part of the forecast is that by the end of the year, the economy will be stagnant, and it'll actually contract at the start of next year. so if they do too much, they can actually push the economy into recession — and that's why it's a very difficult balancing act. just listening to andrew bailey there, the bank of england governor trying to tease some aspects of it, the one thing i would stress is that he said 80% of the inflation is due to the global energy shock, those prices

that domestically, interest rates can't be done a lot about. there is an limit to how much the bank of england can do in this in democrat instance. but they've signalled they'll do what they can. they've raise rates _ they'll do what they can. they've raise rates again, _ they'll do what they can. they've raise rates again, but _ they'll do what they can. they've raise rates again, but they're - they'll do what they can. they've| raise rates again, but they're still only at 1%. it's not even like we are at the 50 year average of 7.2%. to what extent do we just got used it to this low interest rates in this country?— it to this low interest rates in this count ? ~ �* ., , ., this country? we've gotten used to the rock-bottom _ this country? we've gotten used to the rock-bottom interest _ this country? we've gotten used to the rock-bottom interest rates, . this country? we've gotten used to| the rock-bottom interest rates, and the rock—bottom interest rates, and so have the americans and those in the euro zone. so markets — that's investors and creditors — are expecting that interest rates will be hit 2.5%. and that is of course still lower than the very long—term average that you mentioned, and much lower than the 5% inflation if you cast your mind back to before banking crisis, which was the normal

rate of interest. so 2.5% may well be where the bank of england heads. now if their projections are right, at that rate — and that's a big if because we just don't know what will happen with russia's invasion of ukraine, supply chain problems and all the inflation problems there — if they are right and inflation rates go to 2.5%, that doesn't actually essentially do enough to stop inflation hitting double digits, stop the economy contracting at the start of next year, and stop unemployment rising to about 5% in 2024. all of that suggests an economy on the downturn while rates are going up. and that'sjust economy on the downturn while rates are going up. and that's just the wrong way around. normally if growth is pretty good and we have inflation raise rates — however if the projections are of rising unemployment and slower growth, the cost of living and borrowing in that respect for people is a really

tricky balance. and that's why many are worried this is a return to the 19705 are worried this is a return to the 1970s where we saw that very unusual trajectory. 1970s where we saw that very unusual tra'ecto . ., ., , , ., , trajectory. normally interest rates are to a discouraged _ trajectory. normally interest rates are to a discouraged borrowing - trajectory. normally interest rates| are to a discouraged borrowing and encourage savings. this is still a very small rise so it might be... when they're faced with the cost—of—living crisis on top of the pandemic when a lot of people are having to dip into savings? absolutely, really challenging times. so the other part of the forecast is, even though average wages — so on average, wages are rising, betterthan wages — so on average, wages are rising, better than they have for quite a long time — the wages will still be rising slower than the rate of inflation. so in other words, your pay is going up but the price of everything you buy is going up faster. so you actually have less in your pocket at the end of the day. and that cost—of—living crisis on

today's figures suggests we will all be up to about 2% worse off. and on the longer—term projections, if all the longer—term projections, if all the pressures we've discussed continue, we are likely to face the worst cost—of—living crisis since the 1950s and 1960s. so one of the long—term projections that's extremely worrying and very difficult for people is that the economy is expected to be 3% smaller in 2025 then they had forecastjust in 2025 then they had forecastjust in february. that means a smaller economy, higher unemployment, and less scope for income growth. so it'll be hard for people to save in that context — and that's also why the cost—of—living crisis, which was already an issue, will not be solved by monetary policy. it's much more likely to be affected if it's fiscal policy, in other words, what the treasury and the chancellor does to

support people. and i think that's got to be the aim, and i think that's why the bank of england has acted. but they themselves say that's really not going to... they'll do their bit but it won't be enough to address this huge challenge for the economy. professor, thank you forjoining us. the energy giant shell has announced its highest—ever quarterly profits. the company made nearly £7.3 billion in the first three months of this year. that's a three—fold increase on the same period in 2021. our business editor simonjack explained what was behind the rise in profits. increased costs of things like oil, gas, which have filtered through to petrol, and our heating bills meant that companies like shell, as bp did earlier this week, have made bumper profits. we saw oil, crude oil prices — already high at the end of last year, gas prices already high at the end of last year, as the world economy emerged from a covid—related coma, if you like — were amplified

by the russian invasion of ukraine, people worried that supplies from the world's second biggest oil exporter, the world's biggest gas exporter would be either shut off or boycotted, sent this international bidding war for prices, which means that they have made more money than they ever have in their 115—year history. as for what they are going to do with it, they are going to give a lot of money to their shareholders — £4.5 billion this quarter, £4.5 billion the next — which includes, by the way, millions of pension savers. they are also pledging to invest between them, bp and shell, over £40 billion in energy infrastructure over the next 7—10 years, and that will be, you know, people will be watching very closely to make sure they fulfil those commitments. simonjack. the mother of baby p could be released from prison within weeks, after the parole board rejected a government challenge against its ruling. tracey connolly was jailed in 2009 after she admitted causing or allowing the death of her 17—month—old son, peter, at their home in north london.

0ur correspondent andrew plant has been telling us why the parole board rejected the government's challenge against its earlier decision. we've heard from the parole board today, they said it's been reconsidered by a seniorjudge. they've decided that that original decision to release tracy conley they said was not irrational, and therefore the original decision is upheld. it was essentially challenged by the justice secretary, dominic raab, now he has said that tracy conley�*s actions were evil. he has said this demonstrates why we need a fundamental overhaul of the parole board, and he says including, perhaps, a ministerial check, and that would be essentially ministerial oversight on the release by the parole board of the most serious offenders. voters have been heading to the polls today to have their say in a host of elections across the uk in england 146 councils are holding elections — including in major cities like sheffield, birmingham, and london. in scotland and wales, all council areas are holding elections. and in northern ireland,

people have been voting to elect the 90 mlas that sit in the northern ireland assembly. for full details of the elections in your area — go to the bbc news website. in the politics section, you can enter your postcode and get all the details. that's all at bbc.co.uk/news. and there's full coverage of the results here on bbc news from 11.40pm tonight with huw edwards and more across bbc news tomorrow, and through the weekend. that's what he looks like. just so you know, you are in the right place. the headlines on bbc news... interest rates rise to 1% — their highest level since 2009 — as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. the mother of baby p, who died in 2007 after months of abuse, is set to be released from prison. the parole board has rejected a government challenge against its ruling to release tracey connolly. the coronavirus pandemic caused 15 million excess deaths globally,

according to new research by the world health organization. ukrainian officials say they have seen few signs of the ceasefire that russia said it was implementing at the besieged steel plant in the city of mariupol. the kremlin insists humanitarian corridors are in place at the azovstal plant, where ukrainian fighters and some 200 civilians are trapped. ukraine says russian troops have tried to storm the works, which moscow denies. we could be entering the last days of the battle for mariupol. the azovstal steelworks, where ukrainian fighters are making theirfinal stand, has been pounded from above for days. now it seems the assault from the ground is under way. translation: it's already - the second day since the enemy broke into the plant. there are heavy, bloody battles. i am proud of my soldiers, who are making superhuman efforts to contain the pressure of the enemy. the situation is extremely

difficult, but no matter what, we continue to carry out the order to hold the defence. in short, the fight for azovstal will be a fight to the death. but it's notjust ukrainian soldiers stuck in the sprawling tunnels and nuclear bunkers of this huge complex. more than 200 civilians are also thought to be sheltering there. russia has announced a temporary ceasefire for a few hours each day to let them escape. ukrainians say they want the same thing. translation: we hope . to continue rescuing people from azovstal, from mariupol. there are still civilians left there. women, children. to save them, we need to continue the ceasefire. we are ready to take part. it willjust take time to lift people out of those basements, out of those underground shelters. late last night, a group of evacuees did arrive in the town of zaporizhzhia, but they were from the wider city, not the besieged steelworks.

if the plant does fall, that will mean all of mariupol is under russian control. as well as giving president putin something to call a victory, it will free up thousands of russian forces to take part in the assault on the donbas. so far, progress south is reported to be very slow and uneven, while movement north has been paused altogether. that could be because the donbas is where many of ukraine's best trained and most experienced soldiers are based, and they're digging in. but this war isn'tjust taking place on the ground in the east. yesterday, russia hit a crucial crossing over the dnieper river. it followed strikes today before here in lviv, where they targeted three electrical substations. they're trying to take out ukraine's rail network, and stop the flow of weapons from the west to the east. but it's not all going one way. ukraine is said to have destroyed this huge russian oil depot in occupied donetsk. this war is as much about logistics

as anything else, and both sides are drawing blood. joe inwood, bbc news, lviv. let's cross to dnipro in central ukraine — and join our chief international correspondent lyse doucet. you join us youjoin us in you join us in denny pro, which is in the centre east of ukraine. it has been transformed into a logistics and humanitarian hub, and growing concern amongst the eight agencies here as the war intensifies southeast of where we are in the donbas. 0f southeast of where we are in the donbas. of course most of all, what's happening in mariupol with main democrat hundreds of civilians, mainly women and children in the steelworks —— aid agencies. but not only the silver aliens are paying a severe price for the war. we are joined here by the chief officer of

save the children international. you've come from kyiv today, what is at the top of your mind now when it comes to the children of ukraine? every war is a war on children, and thiswar— every war is a war on children, and this war is — every war is a war on children, and this war is no— every war is a war on children, and this war is no different. so the top of my— this war is no different. so the top of my mind — this war is no different. so the top of my mind is the psychological effect on — of my mind is the psychological effect on children, it is very much a mental— effect on children, it is very much a mental health crisis, one of the outcomes— a mental health crisis, one of the outcomes of the war. children expense — outcomes of the war. children expense quite severe trauma when they expense quite severe trauma when ihey gei— expense quite severe trauma when they get displaced, so we need to make _ they get displaced, so we need to make sure — they get displaced, so we need to make sure they get adequate attention so this is affect them later_ attention so this is affect them iaier in— attention so this is affect them later in life. of course if they are aciuaiiy — later in life. of course if they are actually behind enemy lines, they need _ actually behind enemy lines, they need to— actually behind enemy lines, they need to humanitarian assistance, food, _ need to humanitarian assistance, food, water, shelter. so we really want _ food, water, shelter. so we really want to— food, water, shelter. so we really want to see — food, water, shelter. so we really want to see a situation where humanitarian organisations like ourselves, like the united nations and local— ourselves, like the united nations and local ngos have access to these

children. _ and local ngos have access to these children. or— and local ngos have access to these children, orthe and local ngos have access to these children, or the children can come out with_ children, or the children can come out with their families to get access— out with their families to get access to _ out with their families to get access to that assistance right here — access to that assistance right here. , ' . ., ., ., , here. very difficult to get a really recise here. very difficult to get a really precise assessment _ here. very difficult to get a really precise assessment of _ here. very difficult to get a really precise assessment of what's - precise assessment of what's happening in the donbas. we hear many elderly people have been refusing to leave. do you have any sense at all about how many families and children could still be trapped there, unable to get out? it’s and children could still be trapped there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get _ there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get exact _ there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get exact figures. - there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get exact figures. a - there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get exact figures. a lot - there, unable to get out? it's very hard to get exact figures. a lot of| hard to get exact figures. a lot of the families who had means left earlier_ the families who had means left earlier in— the families who had means left earlier in february. the ones still there _ earlier in february. the ones still there now— earlier in february. the ones still there now are the families who are more _ there now are the families who are more deprived, they don't have cars or money, _ more deprived, they don't have cars or money, or— more deprived, they don't have cars or money, or they had elderly parents — or money, or they had elderly parents they need to look after. so that means — parents they need to look after. so that means you do get families left behind _ that means you do get families left behind in _ that means you do get families left behind in very dangerous situations that have _ behind in very dangerous situations that have children. so we need to ensure _ that have children. so we need to ensure the — that have children. so we need to ensure the protection of those children — ensure the protection of those children. , ., . ensure the protection of those children. , . . , children. many watching this programme _ children. many watching this programme will _ children. many watching this

programme will have - children. many watching this programme will have seen i children. many watching this i programme will have seen the children. many watching this - programme will have seen the images of traumatised people, children and women coming out from the steelworks in mariupol, some not having seen sunlight in 60 days, children arriving in zaporzhzhia — what will be their first needs? 50 arriving in zaporzhzhia - what will be their first needs?— arriving in zaporzhzhia - what will be their first needs? so what we're with our local _ be their first needs? so what we're with our local partner _ be their first needs? so what we're with our local partner in _ with our local partner in zaporzhzhia is to make sure that first off, they are registered, and they receive a cash transfer of about— they receive a cash transfer of about $330, or £280, which helps them _ about $330, or £280, which helps them find _ about $330, or £280, which helps them find their feet here, find accommodation and the basic needs. but also _ accommodation and the basic needs. but also what we are doing with the partners _ but also what we are doing with the partners is — but also what we are doing with the partners is training them on how to provide _ partners is training them on how to provide very— partners is training them on how to provide very basic psychosocial sopport, — provide very basic psychosocial support, and also children who might have deeper psychosocial needs to refer those children to the specialists in the ukrainian health system _ specialists in the ukrainian health system. but it's really important to

be able _ system. but it's really important to be able to — system. but it's really important to be able to provide those kids with that kind — be able to provide those kids with that kind of support. as be able to provide those kids with that kind of support.— be able to provide those kids with that kind of support. as terrible as the situation _ that kind of support. as terrible as the situation is, _ that kind of support. as terrible as the situation is, one _ that kind of support. as terrible as the situation is, one of— that kind of support. as terrible as the situation is, one of the - that kind of support. as terrible as the situation is, one of the bright. the situation is, one of the bright lights has been how the world has mobilised, how many people have been very generous in trying to support aid agencies like yours. your operations have significantly increased because of that support. that's exactly right. for the last eight _ that's exactly right. for the last eight weeks, we've been scaling up very quickly. 0ne eight weeks, we've been scaling up very quickly. one of the benefits as we can bring specialists from all over— we can bring specialists from all over the — we can bring specialists from all over the world. they come here and bring _ over the world. they come here and bring their— over the world. they come here and bring their skills from outside, and we try— bring their skills from outside, and we try to _ bring their skills from outside, and we try to marry those with the skills — we try to marry those with the skills of— we try to marry those with the skills of our local staff and partners. so their local expanse in the international experience, we can -et the international experience, we can get a _ the international experience, we can get a really— the international experience, we can get a really good outcome and provide — get a really good outcome and provide top class services to these children— provide top class services to these children who really need it. and provide top class services to these children who really need it.- children who really need it. and of course, there's _ children who really need it. and of course, there's also _ children who really need it. and of

course, there's also growing - children who really need it. and of. course, there's also growing concern notjust course, there's also growing concern not just for the psychosocial support for children, but the dangers for children. we've heard risks to children travelling on their own without families, under their own without families, under the risk of human traffickers. is that a growing concern? it is the risk of human traffickers. is that a growing concern?- that a growing concern? it is a rurowin that a growing concern? it is a growing concern _ that a growing concern? it is a growing concern and - that a growing concern? it is a growing concern and we - that a growing concern? it is a growing concern and we are i that a growing concern? it is a - growing concern and we are working very closely — growing concern and we are working very closely with the social policy of the _ very closely with the social policy of the ukrainian government and unicef— of the ukrainian government and unicef to— of the ukrainian government and unicef to ensure there is proper assistance — unicef to ensure there is proper assistance attract those children, make _ assistance attract those children, make sure — assistance attract those children, make sure they can get reunified with their— make sure they can get reunified with their families. lots of experience across the world trying to unify _ experience across the world trying to unify children with their families. what is happened often is families— families. what is happened often is families have been separated or they travel— families have been separated or they travel with— families have been separated or they travel with neighbours, or they are completely unaccompanied — in which case they— completely unaccompanied — in which case they are very vulnerable and need _ case they are very vulnerable and need to— case they are very vulnerable and need to be — case they are very vulnerable and need to be registered and linked up to the _ need to be registered and linked up to the right care and their families, _ to the right care and their families, because the safest place

for a child — families, because the safest place for a child is with their families. david _ for a child is with their families. david wright, chief operating officer of save the children international, thanks very much for joining us here in denny pro. we've seen right across the ukraine international agencies working with their ukrainian partners here. but as this ramps up, no and his insight to the suffering of people, most of all, the children. it always an terribly —— always, an terribly, a war against children. terribly -- always, an terribly, a war against children.— terribly -- always, an terribly, a war against children. the world health organization estimates that 15 million excess deaths occured globally due to the covid pandemic. the figure suggests many more people died than would have

been expected based on previous years' death—rates. joining us from oxford is professian sian griffiths, emeritus professor at the chinese university of hong kong. good to have you with us again. just explain what those deaths are? they weren't necessarily those who died directly from covid, where they? that separately right. this is a way of estimating the impact of covid, which speaks to direct deaths — meaning those deaths where covid is the cause of death on a death certificate— and indirect deaths. so those who could get care for the health system because of being overwhelmed from covid, so this is a measure that tries to capture all of the impact of covid. and it also captures that there are fewer road traffic accident deaths during covid, taking that into account and

gives you an overall view of the population. the who technical advisory group has looked across the world and underscores that this is a global pandemic. it also estimates there were 15 million — i think we need to pause for a moment and think about 15 million excess deaths due to covid, which raises the questions of what could we do to avoid such a tragedy in the future? this report is very concerned with information systems, having accurate information systems, having accurate information systems, accurate ways of recording more terribly surveillance cash mortality surveillance. this is useful for policymakers, you mortality surveillance. this is usefulfor policymakers, you need mortality surveillance. this is useful for policymakers, you need to know how serious a situation you're dealing with so you can make and adjust the policies. the emphasis on global is important because obviously the numbers of people who've died from covid, partly measured through testing, so you

need to make sure that testing is available globally, and keep remembering that the pandemic is still with us, we still need to be recording deaths, be looking at the genomics and the variance of emerging, and of course obviously making sure that the vaccination is available in all countries. let’s available in all countries. let's talk about _ available in all countries. let's talk about prevention - available in all countries. let's talk about prevention for - available in all countries. let's talk about prevention for the l available in all countries. let's talk about prevention for the next time we have a pandemic in a second. butjust briefly, why have some countries really rather underreported the number of deaths? because there would be a number of reasons they've done that.— reasons they've done that. that's ri . ht, reasons they've done that. that's riaht, and reasons they've done that. that's right, and some _ reasons they've done that. that's right, and some of _ reasons they've done that. that's right, and some of that _ reasons they've done that. that's right, and some of that is - reasons they've done that. that's right, and some of that is to - reasons they've done that. that's right, and some of that is to do l right, and some of that is to do with not having adequate testing, not having adequate recording systems for deaths during a nonpandemic time. so one of the strongest recommendations of the course is that there are methods put

into recording deaths across countries, then you can make comparisons. but you're absolutely right, the indian government has pushed back and says doesn't accept the estimate figures, which are five times higher than the official figures, the who is keen to point out this is a work in process and further assistance will be made, but it does highlight the difficulty of navigating cases and making comparisons. in making comparisons, you couldn't look at where death rates were particularly low, such as australia, when there was a very rigorous policy around entry into the country, which wasn't possible until until recently to go into australia even as an australian citizen once the pandemic hit. so it gives some guidance as to what are the best strategies to adopt in the future. so the best strategies to adopt in the future. , ., ., ,

future. so 'ust expand on that tiny bit - how future. so just expand on that tiny bit - how do _ future. so just expand on that tiny bit - how do these _ future. so just expand on that tiny bit - how do these numbers - future. so just expand on that tiny bit - how do these numbers help i future. so just expand on that tiny i bit - how do these numbers help us bit — how do these numbers help us them to prepare betterfor bit — how do these numbers help us them to prepare better for next time? if them to prepare better for next time? , ., them to prepare better for next time? i. ., them to prepare better for next time? i., ., ., time? if you look in china, a very low death — time? if you look in china, a very low death rate _ time? if you look in china, a very low death rate in _ time? if you look in china, a very low death rate in china, - time? if you look in china, a very low death rate in china, but - time? if you look in china, a very low death rate in china, but also| low death rate in china, but also very strict quarantine border controls, and also as soon a cases diagnosed, there's testing available. so having the parliamentary able to react quickly and make quick decisions to stop the spread of the disease.— spread of the disease. thank you very much- _ now it's time for a look at the weather with helen willetts. good afternoon. you don't need soaring temptress to have a good afternoon, and today is really proved that out there today. a few spots into the low 20s today, lot of cloud but also sunny spells too, really pleasant day out there. if you've been wanting rain, though, there has been much of that around, there's been a little across parts

of scotland and northern ireland. more to come tonight, a gathering whether system here and you can see the rain turning more widespread and heavier as the night goes on. a mild night here, another mild night through england and wales is well with a lot of dry weather around. there will be some low cloud increasing across wales in western england into the morning. as the rain moves slowly out of scotland and northern ireland, sunny spells follow, further showers into northern scotland. north wales, parts of the midlands into the afternoon is where it sits at this stage, southeast england, east anglia with warm sunny spells, turning increasingly hazy. this is a weakening area of rain reaching some of the driest parts of the uk through friday evening and night. high pressure is back — it won't be hugely warm, it'll be warmer than average, and a lot of dry weather this weekend.

sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's isaac. it was a rough night for manchester city in europe. but british sides will be hoping to better evening in the europa league. let's look at rangers first, they're a goal down against rb leipzig but will have the famous ibrox crowd hoping to roar them to victory. the glasgow side have a good home record in europe and will be hoping to make their first european final since the 2008 uefa cup. jane lewis has more. from germany to glasgow. but that's exactly what rb leipzig plan to do. the bundesliga side hold a slim lead over rangers after last week's first leg and defying late strike giving them a 1—0 advantage. that win was sandwiched in between two defeats, followers of the german team say they travel in confidence. hat followers of the german team say they travel in confidence.- they travel in confidence. not in top form- the — they travel in confidence. not in top form. the last _ they travel in confidence. not in top form. the last two - they travel in confidence. not in top form. the last two matches| they travel in confidence. not in i top form. the last two matches in the league. it's not on the top level now in this moment, but i

think in this legendary stadium, they will perform as good as they can. i think like sick well go further in the final, sorry, my friends, sorry.— further in the final, sorry, my friends, sorry. where there is german belief, _ friends, sorry. where there is german belief, you _ friends, sorry. where there is german belief, you will- friends, sorry. where there is german belief, you will find i friends, sorry. where there is german belief, you will find aj german belief, you will find a similar train german belief, you will find a similartrain of german belief, you will find a similar train of thought from a ranger's plaintiff view.- similar train of thought from a ranger's plaintiff view. they start names ranger's plaintiff view. they start games well. _ ranger's plaintiff view. they start games well, especially _ ranger's plaintiff view. they start games well, especially in - ranger's plaintiff view. they start| games well, especially in europe, ranger's plaintiff view. they start i games well, especially in europe, if they can _ games well, especially in europe, if they can score that goal quickly, they can score that goal quickly, the tie _ they can score that goal quickly, the tie opens up again, the energy within— the tie opens up again, the energy within the — the tie opens up again, the energy within the stadium will be a massive factor, _ within the stadium will be a massive factor, i_ within the stadium will be a massive factor, i think. within the stadium will be a massive factor, i think-— within the stadium will be a massive factor, ithink-— factor, ithink. before kick-off, a minute silence _ factor, ithink. before kick-off, a minute silence will... _ factor, ithink. before kick-off, a minute silence will... while - factor, ithink. before kick-off, a minute silence will... while that| minute silence will... while that may inspire the home side, they also might take motivation from the class of 2008. when rangers reach the ua for cup final. i of 2008. when rangers reach the ua for cop final-— for cup final. i don't remember a lot about the _ for cup final. i don't remember a lot about the semifinal, - for cup final. i don't remember a lot about the semifinal, but - for cup final. i don't remember a lot about the semifinal, but i - lot about the semifinal, but i remember about the celebrations after act. remember about the celebrations afteract. being in remember about the celebrations after act. being in that corner, the rangerfans, we were after act. being in that corner, the ranger fans, we were there for ten or 15 minutes hugging each other, celebrating with the fans, it was a

phenomenal feeling. celebrating with the fans, it was a phenomenalfeeling. when i don't think i've ever had again in my whole career. it’s think i've ever had again in my whole career.— think i've ever had again in my whole career. it's 'ust something really special — whole career. it's 'ust something really special that— whole career. it'sjust something really special that we _ whole career. it'sjust something really special that we will - really special that we will remember, the moment in our careers that we _ remember, the moment in our careers that we will— remember, the moment in our careers that we will remember. the remember, the moment in our careers that we will remember.— that we will remember. the current ran . er that we will remember. the current ranger squad _ that we will remember. the current ranger squad is _ that we will remember. the current ranger squad is on _ that we will remember. the current ranger squad is on the _ that we will remember. the current ranger squad is on the 90 - that we will remember. the current ranger squad is on the 90 minutes| ranger squad is on the 90 minutes away from their own special moment. jane lewis, bbc news. like rangers, west ham will have to overturn a first leg deficit, this time away from home against eintract frankfurt. they were beaten 2—1 at the london stadium last week. the hammers go to germany hoping they can keep up their chances of winning a first european trophy since the cup winners cup in 1965. to get to the semifinal of a european competition is huge for anybody. so big for me as well, i want to take the team to the final, i am preparing the team to go to the final, where we believe that if we get it right, we can do so. so we have to manage

that and the players are in the same place as i am. we know frankfurt are in front and we have got a bit to do. and it's also the semi—finals of the inaugural europa conference league. leicester city are in the italian capital to face jose mourinho's roma. the tie is level at 1—1 after last weeks game at the king power stadium. this is another chapter in the story. so for us, our main objective is to just keep the story of this club going and let's see, like we did in the fa cup. you know, we wanted to be the winners for the first time and it's clearly an objective for us in this competition as well. can we pick up a first piece of silverware in europe? essex have been fined £50,000 by the england and wales cricket board after pleading guilty to two charges relating to a racist comment made at a board meeting in 2017.

the club were charged over the comment itself and their failure to conduct an appropriate, orany, investigation. former chairmanjohn faragher has denied making the comment. in tennis dan evans was knocked out of the madrid open in straight sets by andrey rublev. the british number two had his chances. he broke rublev in the opening game of the match and then had set point in the tie break but couldn't capitalize losing the opening set. rublev took the second set 7—5 to win in just under 2 hour 30 minutes. earlier andy murray pulled out of his match against novak djokovic in the third round through illness. murray was going into the match in good form having already knocked out 2020 us open champion dominic thiem and canada's denis shapovalov. that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. that's bbc. c0. uk/sport until next time, i will see you

later. isaac, you certainly will, thank you very much. now for a special edition of your questions answered on the war in ukraine. welcome to a special edition of your questions answered on ukraine. i'm ben brown here in kyiv. we've been sending in your questions about the war here, and she try to answer those questions, i'm joined by a panel of guests from northland lane, justin, seniorfellow and expert panel of guests from northland lane, justin, senior fellow and expert on the use of air power at the security think tank the royal united services institute, from birmingham, katerina, professor of politics at the centre for russian eastern european and eurasian studies at the university of birmingham, also an associate fellow at chatham house. from 0xford, joined by the bbc�*s where affairs editor, john simpson, and ourfinal guest is not an

analyst but a politician here with me and the ukrainian member of parliament, also leader of the hollis party. welcome to you as well. thank you to all my guests. let's get our first question straightaway, josh has messaged in asking what is the most likely way that this war will and? will it be a long time before it does and? here since you're here with me can i will ask you that first about. what is the most likely way this ends, do you think? the most likely way this ends, do ou think? ~ the most likely way this ends, do you think?— the most likely way this ends, do ou think? ~ , ., , you think? well, the most preferable for us is that — you think? well, the most preferable for us is that russia _ you think? well, the most preferable for us is that russia is _ you think? well, the most preferable for us is that russia is weakened - you think? well, the most preferable for us is that russia is weakened to l for us is that russia is weakened to the point when she does not have an ability to continue the war. they pulled back the troops and then we continue living in our beautiful country, but when you ask me about the timeline, look at the six package of sanctions that the eu is putting together that will start acting in six months. so now you know, at least the minimum time, and

we see that all the sanctions, all the weapons support, it takes time to get here and to start acting. so i think we need to prepare for a long marathon rather than to sprint as everybody thought before. isn’t as everybody thought before. isn't the most likely _ as everybody thought before. isn't the most likely way that this war endsis the most likely way that this war ends is some sort of peace negotiation over the territory that is already being taken by russia in which they keep some of the east of this country? be which they keep some of the east of this country?— this country? be in ukraine still hoe this country? be in ukraine still ho -e and this country? be in ukraine still hope and will — this country? be in ukraine still hope and will pursue _ this country? be in ukraine still hope and will pursue getting i this country? be in ukraine still. hope and will pursue getting back this territory, getting back our people, because there is no way for any politician for any ukrainian to say, ok, this is what we will give up, because we don't want to give up, because we don't want to give up, because we think that we can win and take it back, because we see what is happening to the people on these territories. you have seen yourself what happened in ukraine still hope and will pursue getting back his territory, getting back our people, because there is no way for any politician for any ukrainian to say, ok, this is what we will give up, because we don't want to give up, because we don't want to give

up, because we think that we can win and take it back, because we see what is happening to the people on these territories. you have seen yourself what happened to chuck, what's happening, we don't want this for any of our citizens. —— you have seen what has happened in the bucha. thank you very much indeed. 0ur thank you very much indeed. our second question today is one for our military analyst, justin, max is asking "which way is that were currently going and how do you see it panning out? " how do you see it panning out and what is your military analysis of what's happening on the battleground? right now, ithink happening on the battleground? right now, i think what _ happening on the battleground? right now, i think what we are seeing is the last— now, i think what we are seeing is the last major effort that the regular— the last major effort that the regular russian army, the peace time russian _ regular russian army, the peace time russian mobilised army can make him they started _ russian mobilised army can make him they started out with the italian tactical — they started out with the italian tactical groups that the regular russian — tactical groups that the regular russian army can generate in peace time and _ russian army can generate in peace time and sustained committed to played _ time and sustained committed to played about 122 ukraine. if you look at — played about 122 ukraine. if you look at the vehicle losses they have taken, _ look at the vehicle losses they have taken, visually confirmed to him about— taken, visually confirmed to him about three and half thousand, more than 600 _ about three and half thousand, more than 600 tanks, that's 60 b tgs, their— than 600 tanks, that's 60 b tgs, their tank— than 600 tanks, that's 60 b tgs, their tank companies fully wiped out, you — their tank companies fully wiped out, you know, if you look about 15,000 — out, you know, if you look about 15,000 estimated killed in action, probably— 15,000 estimated killed in action, probably three times that captured

wounded _ probably three times that captured wounded and missing. this is a huge proportion— wounded and missing. this is a huge proportion of an attacking force and it will— proportion of an attacking force and it will be _ proportion of an attacking force and it will be disproportionately represented in the infantry in the vehicle _ represented in the infantry in the vehicle crews who make up quite a small— vehicle crews who make up quite a small proportion of each actual btg in terms _ small proportion of each actual btg in terms of— small proportion of each actual btg in terms of people. what they're doing _ in terms of people. what they're doing in— in terms of people. what they're doing in the eastern down bass is trying to— doing in the eastern down bass is trying to make a key breakthrough in the north— trying to make a key breakthrough in the north and coming up from the south, _ the north and coming up from the south, but — the north and coming up from the south, but if they can do that and cut off— south, but if they can do that and cut off the — south, but if they can do that and cut off the j — south, but if they can do that and cut off the] for forces which is looking — cut off the] for forces which is looking increasingly unlikely, then you might — looking increasingly unlikely, then you might be able to stabilise a new line of— you might be able to stabilise a new line of contact from the north set to a longer— line of contact from the north set to a longer wear of attrition, if they— to a longer wear of attrition, if they can't— to a longer wear of attrition, if they can't over the next two or three — they can't over the next two or three weeks, the russian regular army— three weeks, the russian regular army is i— three weeks, the russian regular army is i spend for us in terms of what _ army is i spend for us in terms of what it— army is i spend for us in terms of what it can — army is i spend for us in terms of what it can the question is whether ukraine _ what it can the question is whether ukraine can — what it can the question is whether ukraine can fora what it can the question is whether ukraine can for a simulated reach treats _ ukraine can for a simulated reach treats as— ukraine can for a simulated reach treats as a — ukraine can for a simulated reach treats as a side around the kyiv and access— treats as a side around the kyiv and access up— treats as a side around the kyiv and access up in— treats as a side around the kyiv and access up in the north after the first— access up in the north after the first phase, so a lot depends on the next two _ first phase, so a lot depends on the next two weeks.— next two weeks. justin, thank you very much — next two weeks. justin, thank you very much indeed, _ next two weeks. justin, thank you very much indeed, our— next two weeks. justin, thank you very much indeed, our next - next two weeks. justin, thank you i very much indeed, our next question comes from nigel in somerset in the

uk. �* , , , ., ., comes from nigel in somerset in the uk. let's put this onto katerina, wh are uk. let's put this onto katerina, why are oil _ uk. let's put this onto katerina, why are oil and _ uk. let's put this onto katerina, why are oil and gas _ uk. let's put this onto katerina, why are oil and gas supplies - uk. let's put this onto katerina, why are oil and gas supplies not| why are oil and gas supplies not shut off now? let's talk about the international perspective on this and what the european union and other nations around the world should be doing in terms of international pressure. yes, oil and . as international pressure. yes, oil and as funds international pressure. yes, oil and gas funds the _ international pressure. yes, oil and gas funds the war _ international pressure. yes, oil and gas funds the war machine - international pressure. yes, oil and gas funds the war machine at - international pressure. yes, oil and gas funds the war machine at the i gas funds the war machine at the kremlin. 1 billion euros per day is paid to russia from europe, and yet this is a very difficult and divisive question, we have seen the latest wave of sanctions when the eu said it will basically phase out russian oil crude imports in six months. this is a big step because countries like germany are very dependent, especially the german economic mind depends on stable and reliable energy supplies. yet despite this difficulty, the eu has been able to take this enormous step, this is not an easy step to

take, because the infrastructure to supply russia to europe has been built since the 1970s, that dependence was used to precisely to dissuade the countries in europe to actually stand up to russia, we have seen now poland and bulgaria being punished by example to scare other eu member states, but poland for example has done its homework and it seems that other eu member states are now scrambling to minimise their dependence, what was unthinkable two months ago is now possible. {lilia months ago is now possible. 0k, professor. _ months ago is now possible. 0k, professor, thank _ months ago is now possible. 0k, professor, thank you for that. let's go to john professor, thank you for that. let's go tojohn simpson, our world affairs editor, this is a question from morrison in freetown and sierra leone. he wants to know what will happen if president putin succeeds in his invasion ukraine to my flip side of that question which i'm just

adding in is what if he doesn't succeed? what if he fails with this invasion? i succeed? what if he fails with this invasion? ., �* ~' succeed? what if he fails with this invasion? ., �* ~ , ., invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed. _ invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed, but _ invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed, but at _ invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed, but at least _ invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed, but at least not - invasion? i don't think he is going to succeed, but at least not in - invasion? i don't think he is going | to succeed, but at least not in the terms _ to succeed, but at least not in the terms that— to succeed, but at least not in the terms that he _ to succeed, but at least not in the terms that he wants _ to succeed, but at least not in the terms that he wants to. _ to succeed, but at least not in the terms that he wants to. i - to succeed, but at least not in the terms that he wants to. i think- terms that he wants to. i think the parallel— terms that he wants to. i think the parallel here — terms that he wants to. i think the parallel here is _ terms that he wants to. i think the parallel here is with _ terms that he wants to. i think the parallel here is with style - terms that he wants to. i think the parallel here is with style and's - parallel here is with style and's invasion— parallel here is with style and's invasion of— parallel here is with style and's invasion of finland _ parallel here is with style and's invasion of finland in 1939 - invasion of finland in 1939 when they were — invasion of finland in 1939 when they were certain _ invasion of finland in 1939 when they were certain the _ invasion of finland in 1939 when they were certain the red - invasion of finland in 1939 when they were certain the red armyl invasion of finland in 1939 when i they were certain the red army was 'ust they were certain the red army was just going _ they were certain the red army was just going to — they were certain the red army was just going to walk _ they were certain the red army was just going to walk all _ they were certain the red army was just going to walk all over- they were certain the red army was just going to walk all over the - just going to walk all over the stands — just going to walk all over the stands it— just going to walk all over the stands. it didn't _ just going to walk all over the stands. it didn't happen, - just going to walk all over the stands. it didn't happen, thel just going to walk all over the - stands. it didn't happen, the finns responded, — stands. it didn't happen, the finns responded, but— stands. it didn't happen, the finns responded, but they— stands. it didn't happen, the finns responded, but they couldn't, - responded, but they couldn't, finally, — responded, but they couldn't, finally, just _ responded, but they couldn't, finally, just like _ responded, but they couldn't, finally, just like ukraine, - responded, but they couldn't, finally, just like ukraine, it. responded, but they couldn't, finally, just like ukraine, it is| finally, just like ukraine, it is not big — finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough— finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough to _ finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough to be - finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough to be able - finally, just like ukraine, it is not big enough to be able to| finally, just like ukraine, it is- not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, _ not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, so _ not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, so they- not big enough to be able to stand out permanently, so they lessen i out permanently, so they lessen territory. — out permanently, so they lessen territory. but _ out permanently, so they lessen territory, but they— out permanently, so they lessen territory, but they kept - out permanently, so they lessen territory, but they kept their - territory, but they kept their independence. _ territory, but they kept their independence. i— territory, but they kept their independence. ithink- territory, but they kept their independence. i think that i territory, but they kept theirj independence. i think that is territory, but they kept their - independence. i think that is the most _ independence. i think that is the most likely— independence. i think that is the most likely outcome, _ independence. i think that is the most likely outcome, but - independence. i think that is the most likely outcome, but it - independence. i think that is the | most likely outcome, but it could end in— most likely outcome, but it could end in different _ most likely outcome, but it could end in different ways. _ most likely outcome, but it could end in different ways. it - most likely outcome, but it could end in different ways. it could - most likely outcome, but it couldi end in different ways. it could and withjust _ end in different ways. it could and withjust a — end in different ways. it could and with just a long _ end in different ways. it could and withjust a long bitter— end in different ways. it could and with just a long bitter years - end in different ways. it could and with just a long bitter years and l with just a long bitter years and years— with just a long bitter years and years of— with just a long bitter years and years of hostility— with just a long bitter years and years of hostility and _ with just a long bitter years and years of hostility and anger - with just a long bitter years and . years of hostility and anger flaring up years of hostility and anger flaring up from _ years of hostility and anger flaring up from time _ years of hostility and anger flaring up from time to— years of hostility and anger flaring up from time to time, _ years of hostility and anger flaring up from time to time, or, -

years of hostility and anger flaring up from time to time, or, of- years of hostility and anger flaring i up from time to time, or, of course, there _ up from time to time, or, of course, there is— up from time to time, or, of course, there is the — up from time to time, or, of course, there is the really— up from time to time, or, of course, there is the really dangerous - there is the really dangerous possibility— there is the really dangerous possibility that _ there is the really dangerous possibility that president - there is the really dangerous i possibility that president putin might— possibility that president putin might simply— possibility that president putin might simply lose _ possibility that president putin might simply lose patience - possibility that president putin| might simply lose patience and possibility that president putin - might simply lose patience and start to use _ might simply lose patience and start to use tactical— might simply lose patience and start to use tactical nuclear _ might simply lose patience and start to use tactical nuclear weapons, - might simply lose patience and start to use tactical nuclear weapons, to i to use tactical nuclear weapons, to be honest. — to use tactical nuclear weapons, to be honest. if— to use tactical nuclear weapons, to be honest, if that _ to use tactical nuclear weapons, to be honest, if that happens, - to use tactical nuclear weapons, to be honest, if that happens, all- to use tactical nuclear weapons, to| be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, _ be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, i_ be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, ldon't _ be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, idon't know— be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, i don't know what- be honest, if that happens, all bets are off, i don't know what might. are off, i don't know what might happen, — are off, idon't know what might happen, but— are off, idon't know what might happen, but my— are off, i don't know what might happen, but my guess _ are off, idon't know what might happen, but my guess is- are off, i don't know what might happen, but my guess is that i are off, i don't know what might i happen, but my guess is that that won't _ happen, but my guess is that that won't happen, _ happen, but my guess is that that won't happen, that _ happen, but my guess is that that won't happen, that president - happen, but my guess is that thatl won't happen, that president putin will declare — won't happen, that president putin will declare victory— won't happen, that president putin will declare victory at _ won't happen, that president putin will declare victory at some - won't happen, that president putin will declare victory at some stage i will declare victory at some stage and walk— will declare victory at some stage and walk away _ will declare victory at some stage and walk away and _ will declare victory at some stage and walk away and tell _ will declare victory at some stage and walk away and tell the - will declare victory at some stage. and walk away and tell the russian people _ and walk away and tell the russian people that — and walk away and tell the russian people that it's _ and walk away and tell the russian people that it's been— and walk away and tell the russian people that it's been a _ and walk away and tell the russian people that it's been a fantastic. people that it's been a fantastic success — people that it's been a fantastic success. htl— people that it's been a fantastic success. �* g ., people that it's been a fantastic success. �* . ., ., ~ , ., success. all right, john, thank you very much- — success. all right, john, thank you very much. come _ success. all right, john, thank you very much. come back— success. all right, john, thank you very much. come back to - success. all right, john, thank you very much. come back to my- success. all right, john, thank you | very much. come back to my guest here in kyiv, the ukrainian member of parliament, this is a question from mark from the 0akley in the uk who is asking in the average small towns and villages away from don bass and the other contested areas, is life relatively normalmike is there any kind of normality the areas of this country that are not at the centre of the fighting? has areas of this country that are not at the centre of the fighting? as he have seen. — at the centre of the fighting? as he have seen, recently, _ at the centre of the fighting? as he

have seen, recently, there - at the centre of the fighting? as he have seen, recently, there were . have seen, recently, there were attacks on the western ukrainian cities such as lyviv, and he's telling us that there is no place and you can rate and feel safe, there is no way he can feel normal, but you can hold business, we can live at your normal life. they hit on transcaucasia, the western part of ukraine recently, also saying the same thing, so, no, right now, there is no more normality. everyone is trying to support our army the best we can and sending the product support, whatever we can get, to the front. we are getting a lot of refugees coming from the eastern parts to the western, and every ukrainian is opening their homes to the people who lost their homes at war. there is no normality and there will not be until we went.— will not be until we went. thank you ve much will not be until we went. thank you very much indeed. _ will not be until we went. thank you very much indeed. back— will not be until we went. thank you very much indeed. back to - will not be until we went. thank you very much indeed. back to justin, i very much indeed. back tojustin, our defence and military experts, this is a question about airpower, really, if you are an expert on that, when will ukraine be able to

defend itself from these horrible air strikes without sufficient warplanes of their own? when will ukraine be able to defend itself from these horrible air strikes without sufficient warplanes of their own? what you say about airpower and the struggle for airpower in this country at the moment? it is quite interesting that what are often reported as air strikes throughout the country, including as we have just heard on lviv and other parts of the west, as well as kyiv, are mostly cruise missile and ballistic strikes, stand—up strikes, because russia does not have the ability to conduct air strikes with aircraft deep into ukraine, because ukraine still maintains a significant capacity to defend its own airspace, primarily with surface—to—air missiles, so long range systems which were somewhat used in the first weeks in particular, there are some batteries left, and other shorter a media systems, so the russians can't really operate

—— and other shorter and medium range systems, so the russians can't really operate at medium and high level of the most of the country, and so they have resorted to a lot of low—level attacks, and what we saw in terms of the air strikes are in cities that were close to russian —controlled airspace and at night, with unguided weapons at low level, so mariupol, kharkiv, all very close to russian borders where it's difficult to intercept the russians. in donbas what is happening short range systems, ambushes, the russians have more ability to operate at short range, they have to come nowhere the shoulder fired weapons are more effective, so where they have some effectiveness in donbas and elsewhere, they struggle to hit targets that are not

fixed or in cities, so the ukrainian are shooting down aircraft. air force, it's very difficult to do more than operate limited sorties at low level, because russia has a lot of systems that medium and short range, as well as high altitude supporter on the borders, so there is a sort of mutual and spacing are going on. —— on the borders, so there is a sort of mutual air space denial going on. 0k, thank you for that. back to kataryna wolczuk from birmingham university. this is about belarus, russia's ally, important to russia during all of this. this is a question from barry tucker, are the belarussian military willing to fight their previously peaceful neighbour ukraine on putin's behalf? what you think of that, kataryna, do you think that belarus will send

in troops at any stage during this war? there is no doubt whatsoever that president putin would like belarus to step in to support, but it's a very difficult situation for president lukashenko, in a difficult situation, because the war is unpopular. belarusian people are very pacifist, they hate war, because if they were the battleground of the second world war, so the war against ukraine is very unpopular, and lukashenko has to be very careful about antagonising the people, because that faces the possibility they will see protests. again. said as he wrestled in france asking, is it unrealistic to assume that whatever the outcome of the were here in ukraine, putin will

legal process and held accountable for the were crimes committed in ukraine. john simpson, d think putin orany ukraine. john simpson, d think putin or any of his people, any of his generals or anybody on the russian will ever be held accountable or will ever be held accountable or will ever be held accountable or will ever face justice are the allegations of war crimes? i think putin is strong and empowered and has the support of the russian people, which he seems to have this at the moment, and of course he is very strong at present, there is no question of anything like that happening, but if you recall what happened in serbia after the nato bombing of 1999, president melissa bache, absolutely no question that he might be tried for human rights violations or anything like it, but what happened was that he was overthrown and his successor,

then, in order to reset the relationships with the west, then agreed to let melosivic go to the hague, and her died there, and the bosnian serb leaders are now serving long sentences. the question really is will somebody get rid of vladimir putin? he will now look weaker, there will be people within the political structure within russia who will say this was all a terrible mistake, and it was all his fault and we should do something about it. you can never guarantee what might happen under those circumstances, but there is definitely a possibility that he will be overthrown, and then there is a strong possibility that he, generals, ministers, colonels, soldiers who carried out appalling war crimes will be on trial, and we know now many of them are.

the people that did the appalling crimes in bucha, for instance, we have their photographs, their names, and one day my feeling is one day we might see them tried. i went to the lady at the end of this programme now it's an image is found by my cameraman back when we went recently to bucha just north of here. when we went to bucha and irpin just north of here, to see for ourselves some of the devastation left behind by the russian troops who were here for a few weeks after the invasion, before being driven back. homes you can see completely destroyed. appalling destruction wherever you look. we saw where the many hundreds of people who died here are buried

in a cemetery that stretches as far as the eye can see, with new graves, some of them containing the bodies of victims of alleged war crimes. you've been watching your questions answered. good evening. it's a tale of two halves. my my sunshine around then yesterday, particularly pressing on in wales, strong sunshine, warm or more widely, 21 celsius, and we will have similar warmth over the coming few days as we've got the south—westerly winds and the easier it is high with us, but whether we realise temperatures into the high teens, low 20s will depend on the amount of cloud we have, and we've had rather more cloud further north under a weather front, particularly for the north and west of scotland, that with a friend will continue for this evening, one or two sharp showers

elsewhere but nowhere near as many as yesterday, fairly isolated, they will fade away and under the starry skies, it will be a bit of mist around, my mist and coastal health log in southern and western areas and our by their friend log in southern and western areas and our by theirfriend really starts to pep up, turned quite wet for northern ireland and scotland did the second part of the night, but mild across the board. a wet start for some tomorrow, some appreciable rain as it meanders its way slowly southwards, we will see the sunshine returning with just a few showers in the north. the sunshine fading further south, but the strong sunshine hanging on and east, 2021 -- 20-21 the strong sunshine hanging on and east, 2021 —— 20—21 as we seen recently. cooler in northern wales because of the cotton rain. quite warm the other side of that with a friend when the sunshine comes out to the likes of eastern scotland. it does mean that we will see fewer areas with high levels of tree pollen tomorrow, but nevertheless, still high in southern and eastern areas where we keep the sunshine. that rain will eventually reach southern areas, some uncertainty as to how much we will seek but perhaps

adapting to the ground before that is or is high, establish itself or most of the beginning of the northwest i think my pestered by the odd weather front. we will see some cloud milling around those early showers on that with different in the south, perhaps some cloud for parts of eastern scotland in northeast england, but he with onshore breeze is, it could bejust that little bit cooler on saturday. we receive is sunshine generally speaking with the light wind it will feel pleasantly warm, some strong sunshine. by wednesday, —— sunday, we've got this weather system starting to push its influence into the north and west of scotland and northern ireland, so i think here we will see cloudy skies patchy rain, temperature are on 13—14, again, one where we see that sunshine. dry for many.

at 6pm... turbulent times ahead, as the pressure on the uk's economy intensifies. with inflation now expected to hit 10% by the end of the year, the bank of england raises interest rates to 1% and says they could rise again very soon. we will have to come back in about six weeks' time and reassess all the evidence again and, because the situation is so unprecedented, that reassessment is particularly important, because we are dealing with things that haven't been seen before. there are no a possible risk of recession. the energy giant shell says it has made more than £7 billion in profits injust three months — three times what it made last year.