through the weekend. high pressure is what's been holding the forecast steady. it still hangs around for england and wales into monday, but to the northwest of the uk, we'll see weather fronts approaching as a low rolls in further north. and those weather fronts will kick up the winds for the small hours in northern ireland and western scotland and eventually will usher rain in by dawn. overnight for england and wales, it stays fine, clear spells, the odd patch of mist and fog possible in one or two spots. quite chilly, actually, across east anglia in the far southeast, lows ofjust 2 or 3 degrees. much milder under the cloud and rain to the northwest of the uk. that rain a pretty persistent feature through the day across western scotland, spreads out across northern ireland. as we go into the afternoon, perhaps we'll see some brighter skies and showers following. wet by the afternoon for eastern scotland, parts of northwest england and north wales, but warm as the sunshine continues further south.

hello this is bbc news. the headlines: doubts over power sharing in northern ireland — sinn fein are in line for the first minister's role at stormont — but the democratic unionists say they won't take part unless the uk government scraps new brexit trading rules. more than 60 people are thought to have been killed after a russian bomb hit a school in eastern ukraine. labour hits back at fresh claims over keir starmer�*s lockdown meal with colleagues — saying he didn't break covid rules. actor ncuti gatwa has been announced as the new doctor in doctor who. he'll take over from jodie whittaker next year. now on bbc news: it's time for talking business with aaron heslehurst. hello, everybody.

everyone welcome to talking business weekly with me aaron heslehurst. let's take a look at what's on the show. the cost of war. as the fighting continues in ukraine how much damage is being done to the country's finances, and who will pay for the rebuilding when the shooting finally stops? just keeping the country going through the ravages of war is costing billions of dollars it doesn't have. ukraine's finance minister tells me how bad the damage is and what it means for his country's future. also, how can the rest of the world help ukraine get back upon its feet? i'm here in london at the headquarters of the european bank for reconstruction and development, which was set up to help rebuild central and eastern europe after the fall of communism in russia. i catch up with its president to find out how they can help.

wherever in the world you'rejoining me from, once again a big hello and a very warm welcome to the show. the war in ukraine, it's now well into its third month. it's a conflict that is causing huge suffering for millions. and even if the fighting stops tomorrow the country will have enormous challenges to deal with for years. in a lot of areas the economy is struggling to function, given so much has been destroyed. and that's making it hard to keep the basics going, such as power supplies, the availability of food, and for people to go to work. as you can see, ukraine's economy has struggled to maintain growth since the start of the century, and before the war it was hit by the coronavirus pandemic. it was worth about $180 billion and expected to grow a healthy 3.6% this year. but the fighting means it is now forecast to shrink 45%.

the fact that much of the workforce has either fled or is fighting the russian invaders means economic activity has fallen sharply and the government will lose billions of dollars in tax revenues. exports, they've been drastically cut with the country unable to sell its iron, steel or its crops such as wheat and sunflower oil to the rest of the world, which means its economy is losing even more cash. and all of this begs the question ofjust how president zelensky�*s government can keep the economy going, and how will it fund the widespread rebuilding when the fighting does eventually stop? last month he told the world bank huge amounts of foreign aid would be needed. translation: as of now, i given the economic downturn and broken economic ties, we need up to us$7 billion in financial support each month to make up for economic losses. and we will need hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild all of this later and recover

from this war. so let's pick up on that idea that ukraine needs billions of dollars of financial support each month just to keep going. how has the economy adapted to the unprecedented challenges of war? shops and factories have had to close. and that all—important farming industry which helps feed the rest of the world has been severely disrupted. so i've been speaking to the man now in charge of a wartime economy, ukraine's finance minister. minister sergeii marchenko, thank you so much for your time. i am sorry it's under these circumstances. but sergeii, can we start with this, and you help our global viewers understand the economic picture, the economic situation that people are dealing with in ukraine right now? our economy is working under very different conditions, i mean in comparison with prewar time. now our revenues can cover slightly half of our expenditure except from military and sovereign debt.

it means that now we should have found some different ways how to finance our budget. these could be some domestic issues of war bonds, or it could be some international support which we strive to find out how to receive. of course, people are suffering. now we see a lack of supply of petrol at petrol stations, we are seeing an increase in price in some products. what the government tried to do what we need to do to support internally displaced people, people which need the most government support. sergeii, last year your tax revenues, which of course is a big share of the money you are able to spend as a government, those tax revenues were on course to be higher than $30 billion for the first time. what is it likely to be this year

and what does the fall in those tax revenues mean? it means that we can collect less taxes because of war damages, because more than 20% of our businesses are fully closed. it means that we can't manage to fulfil our necessary duty as a government without international support, or withoutjust printing money. it means that we should make some steps to support our business, and it's not easy in a way that from one hand you need to support businesses and on the other hand you need to collect taxes in order to make the necessary payments, government, social security, pensions etc, so it is really challenging right now to have a balanced budget.

before the war some of your biggest donors for the country were crop production such as sunflower, corn and wheat, as well as iron ore. are you still able to export any of that at all? very good question. you know that ukraine has a global leadership position in the export of several commodities, corn, wheat, iron ore. right now the situation is a little bit changed because of our food commodities are fully blocked now in the odesa region. that's why we can't deliver the necessary amount of corn to our customers. as well as iron ore, semi—finished iron is also under pressure over how to deliver it to customers in europe or other countries.

now we so now we are trying to adapt our infrastructure, especially western border infrastructure, in order to receive the necessary amount of exports towards the west of ukraine. sergeii, last month your president, president zelensky, told the world bank and the imf, the international monetary fund, that ukraine needs $7 billion a month to make up for economic losses. what would that money be spent on, sergeii? this money can be spent only on some very practical ukrainian needs. first and foremost, the humanitarian needs of our people. we look at now in ukraine, we have 7 million people which are internally displaced. also there is another way to support our people through paying pension, salaries for health care

workers, for people who work in education, etc. it is only very critical needs, except of military, because military is another budget. russia is continuing to get billions of dollars from selling its oil and gas to europe. should there be a full embargo on russian energy? it's very important and so necessary to do it right now. just because huge oil and gas prices help russia to receive additional amount to make their budget run with a surplus, in comparison with us,

we are running with very huge deficit. russia's budgets run with very huge profits. so it's very necessary to block and to find a way how to make them more problematic to finance their military needs. that's why a full embargo is a very crucial questions to deliver, as well as with other international sanctions on import some additional duties or gaps is also welcome from ukraine. would a full embargo end the war? no. i am very practical minister of finance. i believe that full embargo can make russia suffer more than it is right now. and sergeii, correct me if i'm wrong, but russian gas, it's still traveling through ukraine on its way to europe. and if that is the case, are you still getting the billions of dollars of transit fees that that brings in? the good question.

now we have a full embargo on all goods from russia, but our transit service is related to eastern european countries mostly. that's why it should be their decision. whether they want to receive russian gas. so now we will like transit countries. but sergeii, shouldn't your governmentjust make the decision by itself and close those pipelines? you know, it's impossible. it's impossible because of some reasons, because if you have some somebody from one hand to receive this gas and another guys which supplies gas our country is just in a transit territory. we can't open this tube and to make this gas flow in other directions. to rebuild ukraine, do you envisage

the need for some sort of marshall plan? of course, that was the us plan to help rebuild europe after world war two. and what would the price tag of rebuilding be? we estimated our losses more than us$600 billion. so some part of our territory now we can't have a direct control — they are occupied by russia. so we need some time to just clean this territory from russian troops and then make a more reliable calculation of real damages which we received from them. some suggest that russian assets that have been frozen around the world should be used to pay for the reconstruction in ukraine. yes, it could be russia's frozen assets which can be seized and used to support ukraine. and i know that canada

and the united states are moving in that direction. they require some draft legislation in a way that can facilitate this process, facilitate the process of seize, which can help us to see this order to rebuild ukraine. but certainly, if that money was to be used to rebuild the country, doesn't that mean that the international community can't use that tool to unfreeze those assets as a leverage against russia to bring them to the negotiating table? no, i don't think it could be negotiated with russia. that's not the kind of negotiation because we received a lot of damages in our economy and russia should pay for that through a real repatriation from their side. of course, what could be negotiated is sanctions, and it's a question

of sanctions in new russia, and it could be negotiated. but i don't think this is a key question right now for us. it's important to ceasefire in ukraine and to completely clean ukraine from russian soldiers and russian troops. well, on that point, sergeii marchenko, the finance minister of ukraine, i really appreciate your time. good luck with everything, sergeii. take care. stay safe and i'll talk to you soon. the war in ukraine has, of course, cost thousands of lives, but it has also already caused tens of billions of dollars of damage. and that number, it's growing every day. the destruction ranges from roads and bridges to factories and apartment blocks, and the cost of rebuilding all of that when the fighting is over will be enormous. and ukraine simply can't afford it all by itself. but one organisation that's already

looking at how it can help is the european bank for reconstruction and development, known as the ebrd. it was set up to help rebuild central and eastern europe after the fall of communism in russia 30 years ago. so i've come to its headquarters here in london to catch up with its president. 0dile renaud—basso. thank you so much for your time. much appreciated. 0dile, can we start with this — just for viewers around the world and perhaps the uninitiated? can you can you explain what the ebrd does? so the ebrd is a multilateral development bank with the government. as a shareholders, we have more than 70 countries being shareholders of the bank. and we've been created in 1991 following the collapse of the soviet union in order to support the private sector and the transition of communist countries to world market economies. and so we finance projects.

we expand loans to clients in the private sector, a bit of our activity also in the public sector, for example, in key infrastructure that will be important for the development of the market economy, private sector companies and so forth. and this makes you one of the right organisations, if you will, to help rebuild ukraine, then? yes, because ukraine has been one of our first countries of operation. we've invested a lot in ukraine in the last 30 years. we are one of the most important, the most important, international investor in the country. before the war, we were investing something like 1 billion a year in the country, financing projects, but also providing policy support. and 0dile, we're hearing that ukraine will need upwards of $600 billion for reconstruction. do you believe that money will be forthcoming? i think, first of all, we don't know exactly what are the amounts

for the reconstruction that will be needed because we are still in the war. so it's very difficult to assess. we know now some key infrastructure buildings, some cities have been completely destroyed. i think the ukrainian government has given this assessment of 500, 600 billion. so it's difficult to have now precise figures, but of course, the needs will be very, very important and there will be absolutely a need for external support, grant financing and not only loans and the sort of exceptional type marshall plan type for ukraine. a bit like what what has been done following world war two in europe to rebuild the country. so i'm sure that will have to come. there is already some thinking and some preparation on how to do that. one very important element in the reconstruction for ukraine will be not only financing but also

support for reforms. you know, the country before the war was engaged in a big reform agenda to improve governance, reform the judicial system, fight against corruption, and so forth. this agenda of reform will continue, will need to be implemented in ukraine post—war in the context of the reconstruction. countries have been running up massive debts over the past two years just dealing with the pandemic. it's going to be tricky, isn't it, when governments, for a country the size of ukraine, for other countries that are still firefighting, if you will, their own finances, to be able to stump up money to help a country like ukraine? yes, it's challenging. but when you see what's going on now with very important amounts of donor support for ukraine now in the currentjuncture to go through the war with military support, but also support to the government, the us

have just announced a very important package. it shows that there is a real solidarity and that western countries from the us, canada, the eu, european countries really understand the need to support the country if they want this country to win the war and to stay as a stand—alone, independent, democratic country in the future. but there is also, when you see the solidarity showed by the country like poland or all the neighboring countries in ukraine, accepting refugees, helping with them, with the refugees flows and so forth, i think it shows how concerned people are and how they feel about it. when we're in a world at the moment where raw materials, prices are going through the roof, the cost of labour is going through the roof, it is going to make it more expensive. that's another problem ukraine may face, is it's going to be much

more expensive to rebuild. yes, indeed, it's going to be more expensive. but also, the war has not only an impact now today, it has not only an impact on ukraine, but it has also an impact on all the economies. and we've been looking at the impact on all our countries of operation. it may have different channels of impact, but all countries will be affected by the war, either through energy prices, gas prices, energy security, food prices or the need, for example, for countries in central asia, they need to completely reorganise their economic infrastructure, logistics and so forth because of the situation in russia with all the sanctions. and they need to reorganise if they want to export to go outside russia. so, i mean, this is a big impact — this war will have a big impact on all all the countries in which we intervene. you mentioned russia, so i'm going to ask you, 0dile, do you believe russia should be

made to pay for some of the reconstruction and if so, how? i mean, it's a very difficult debate. i think, in a way, when you see all the assets that have been frozen, i can see the logic of using some of those things, some of these assets. i think when you have the history of europe in mind, the notion of reparation calls for sort of alert, i think we need to be aware of that also. for those who maybe don't have a long memory. you're talking about what happened in world war one and germany, and then that led to what we saw. exactly, because it was really the logic to make the country, which was that the origin of the war, germany, make it pay for the war and to repair for the war, destroying destruction and so forth. and then it has a very, i mean, strong impact on the germany

and what's one of the origin of what came with hitler and nazism and so forth. so i think that for europeans, this is a part of the memory and we need to keep that in mind. but this debate will have to take place. this might be a hard a hard question to answer, because the war is still ongoing, as you and i sit here. but once the war is over, how long would it take to rebuild ukraine? a few years. a few years, several years. it's clear, and it depends there, again, at the level of destruction and so forth. but several years. but i think what is very important at the current juncture and to limit the impact of the war as much as we can on the country, on the government institutions, on the economy, it's also to continue to provide quick support. now, 0dile, do you worry that the war could continue at a low level with the occasional strikes on the capital, kyiv, and maybe other major

cities in ukraine. and that would, i guess, well, it would mean companies are going to be somewhat reluctant to to bring in international expertise to help the reconstruction. no, i really agree that this is a very, very likely scenario and that we are not going to move very swiftly from war to peace and reconstruction. it's very difficult to engage into reconstruction and new investment in a country where you don't know how long this will stay and whether there is a risk of destruction very quickly. and for an institution like us, for banks, it's particularly challenging because the risk is very high. so, i mean, dealing with that will be a challenge. but i think we need to get to work also on such kind of scenario, which may really, really happen. 0dile, something that i've talked a lot about on my show since the war is the immense importance of the agricultural sector in ukraine.

i mean, known as the breadbasket of of europe, feeds much of the world. that's almost come to a standstill. is there much that the bank can do to help that all important sector get back up and running? so, you're right. first of all, this is a key issue, and it's a big source of concern for a number of countries. the second point is that we are trying to help as much as we can in ukraine, supporting, for example, agri business to finance the campaign, buying fertilisers, buying oil to get the system functioning. however, one big hurdle and on which it's very difficult to find the appropriate response is logistics because of the situation in the port in ukraine. exports, i mean, logistics means to export the wheat and so forth are very limited. there is no ships.

and so if you take the train, it's much, i mean, the capacity i understand using the railway system, it would take three years to get one one year of wheat out of the country rather than using the boat because it's much smaller and so forth. so this is a huge problem. and up to now, i mean, very difficult to find a solution. and the other thing we are trying to do is to help in other countries in which we intervene, storage capacity to be less dependent on market volatility, but also increase their own production capacity of wheat, or growing capacity of wheat and different, different products in order to replace part of the production in ukraine. but this is a key challenge for everybody. well, on that note, 0dile renaud—basso, a real pleasure. thank you so much. thank you very much. good luck with everything. and i'd love to talk to you again soon.

thank you. before i finish, in a recent episode of the show, we broadcast an interview that mentioned koch industries as one of a number of companies still operating in russia. well, since that interview was recorded, koch industries have issued an update saying that they are working on a strategy with their subsidiary company, guardian glass, to exit the russian market. they added that all other koch companies, none with operating assets in russia, have ended, or are ending, business activities there. well, that's it for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. don't forget, you can keep up to date with the latest on the war in ukraine and how it's impacting our global economy on the bbc news website or the smartphone app. you can also follow me on twitter. tweet me, i'll tweet you back. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye bye. there has been lots of fine and warm weather throughout the uk over the weekend, high pressure has been holding the forecast study. it hangs around for england and wales into

monday, but the north—west of the uk will see weather fronts as a low rolls in for the north and the whether france will kick up the windows through the small hours for northern ireland and western scotland, and eventually ushering in rain by dawn. 0vernight scotland, and eventually ushering in rain by dawn. overnight for england and wales it stays fine, quite chilly across east anglia and the far south—east, lows of two or three degrees, much milder under the cloud and rain to the north—west of the uk. the rain is a pretty persistent feature through the day across western scotland, spreading out across northern ireland as we go into the afternoon. we will see brighter skies and then showers following on, wet in the afternoon in eastern scotland and north wales. warm as the sunshine continues further south.

but warm as the sunshine continues further south.

this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. more than 60 people are thought to have been killed after a russian bomb hit a school in eastern ukraine. it comes as the us first lady doctorjill biden makes a surprise trip to ukraine, meeting with the wife of president zelensky. all this as russia prepares to mark the annual victory day in moscow — we'll have the latest. our other main headlines. john lee, the man who oversaw the crackdown on protesters in hong kong, has become the territory's new leader. he replaces carrie lam. trading dispute casts doubt over the future of power sharing in northern ireland, after sinn fein becomes

the largest party.