as the world's business leaders and politicians gather in the swiss mountain resort of davos, what can they do to keep the global economy on track? the man behind one of the biggest events in their calendar tells me restoring trust is a top priority. in many parts of the world, wages are rising as companies struggle to find enough staff. but with growing warnings of a recession, how long will workers continue to win? i'm going to be speaking to the boss of one of the world's biggest recruitment firms. plus, with the war in ukraine pushing up prices for everything from wheat to energy and metals, the head of the imf, the international monetary fund, will tell me how governments around the world can keep a lid on inflation without derailing economic growth.

wherever in the world you'rejoining me from, once again, a big hello in a very warm welcome to the show. so are your wages struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living? are you seeing the cost of his supermarket shop go up each week? what about your energy bills or your rent or mortgage payments? well, all of this is thanks to soaring inflation, which was rising because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and has been made worse by the war in ukraine. some influential voices are now warning a big recession could be on the way. it all means there's massive worldwide problems for the business. and political leaders gathering in the swiss mountain resort of davos to get stuck into their stated aim is to improve the state of the world.

this year, more than 2,500 delegates are set to attend, and they typically range from hollywood movie stars to prime ministers and the chief executives of the world's biggest companies. being there, it doesn't come cheap, $180,000. it's the starting price for the membership of the world economic forum, which you need to get an invite. the most expensive membership, that's 600,000 that lets four people attend, but you can get a fifth invite included in that price if it's for a woman, because only 25% of participants are female and the organisers want to boost that. however, for some it's little more than an exclusive place to talk to rich people that doesn't really manage to solve any problems. they talk about things like climate change, corporate governance, racial and gender imbalance. they pledge all kinds of progressive change and then very little happens. if this meeting never happened, the world would stay pretty much as it is. the real function of davos is as a way for the billionaire class to virtue signal and let us know that we need not exercise democratic rights,

to impose progressive taxation, to allow labour unions to organise, to get a piece of the action. it's really an elaborate charade that's about maintaining the status quo under the banner of improving the world. but with war raging in ukraine and the fallout being felt all around the world, one of the highest profile politicians on the planet right now, that's president zelensky. he's going to be amongst those speaking his country. it's facing a rebuilding bill estimated at more than $600 billion. and he thinks davos can help. translation: this year, the conference will be - especially important for our country. post—war reconstruction will be discussed. we're doing our best to fully gather the support of the world.

and participation in the davos forum is one of the best opportunities for that. so some important people do seem to see a lot of value in davos. it certainly comes at a time of huge challenges for the global economy. so what does the man who founded the gathering in the early 1970s think it can do to make the world a better place? professor klaus schwab, always a pleasure having you join me. thanks for your time, klaus. let's start well, let's start with the biggest challenges for the global economy as you see them right now, because i'm just wondering if there's one or two in particular that perhaps keep you awake at night? no, unfortunately, i would say four main challenges or even five, keep me up at night. so first one, of course, is the horrible war which we see in ukraine, the action of russia on ukraine and all its repercussions and the implications which are far reaching. and for this reason we have given to the annual

the title history at the turning point. but we also are at the tail end of the covid pandemic, which was the biggest global health disaster for the last 100 years. we have the global economy with great concerns because it's a global economy and we may speak later about it is certainly out of balance. and some we have if i add a false issue, we have see global warming and preserving nature. and this is also an issue where we cannot wait. i add a fifth one, which is, let's say, the impact of all the new and disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence. so all those challenges and all those factors you mention in in reality, klaus, how does your meeting that you're hosting at davos, how does that fix them? we don't fix them.

and i think we are not — particularly since the world is so complex — we are not in a situation where we have simple answers to very complex questions. so what we do in davos is to create awareness about the complexity of the issues, but also about the urgency to take action to provide new insights. klaus, in youropinion, is the war in ukraine, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, is all of that stopping the leaders of the global economy from making progress in other important areas, such as climate change, international tax reform, water security? all of those that have been prominent at davos in recent years because they're there fighting all these other fires. no, you are right, aaron. and as i said already, since a long time, the world is not sufficiently thinking in strategic terms. and particularly now global decision making is very much characterised by crisis management, by short term thinking.

so we fix specific issues. for example, we raise interest rate by some points. but what is missing is to think long term and to have really an idea how we exit of this situation we have manoeuvred ourselves in, which means to high inflation, too low growth, too many too much debts. what is actually the exit strategy? the same, of course, is true for the war in ukraine. what exit strategies do we have available? well, klaus, let's end on this. and, yes, your critics will say that davos is nothing but a talking shop. so so what would a successful outcome be for this year's meeting? a successful outcome would be a greater awareness of the interrelations of the different challenges which we face.

and i would also hope that we draw more attention to ukraine, to the suffering of the people, to the refugees problem and so on. we have a very strong ukrainian presence in davos. i hope that people become aware of the danger of a large of large parts of the population suffering from hunger. i hope that people in davos become aware and make progress also related to global warming. well, on that note, professor klaus schwab, always a pleasure having you join me. thanks for your time. good luck with everything. and i'll talk to you soon. thank you. i'll see you in davos. so, while some of the richest people discuss the big problems

affecting millions of us in davos, what is the impact of all of this change on living standards around the world? well, jobs jobs are arguably the most important thing in determining those living standards. so, i've been speaking to the big boss of manpowergroup. it's one of the world's biggest employment agencies. and last year it found work for two million people in 75 countries. jonas prising, my friend, thank you so much for your time. jonas, let's start with this, because looking at your latest numbers, it does seem to be a pretty good time to be looking for a job. so i'm just wondering, what are the biggest trends you're seeing in the employment market at the moment? well, thanks, aaron. what you're seeing here is a continued very strong labour market across the world where we've bounced back from the difficulties during the pandemic. and in most parts of the world, we are now back to the employment levels we saw before the pandemic. so the supply of labour

is quite constricted. you can really see how demand for workforce by employers is at a record high, or at least very close to a record high across the world. and why is that? so some of the reasons we're seeing this very strong demand is also a very strong surge in demand for products and services. we expect this to normalise over time. but some of the effects you are you're seeing with very high wage inflation compared to what we have been used to for the last 20 or 30 years at least. and that will take time to normalise. but we think a lot of this is related to the pandemic effects that we experienced. so, jonas, does it mean wages willjust keep going up, which is part of this cycle causing rising prices around the world ? well, the wage inflation we're seeing right now, we believe, is significantly driven by the pandemic effects.

so it's an anomaly to see labour markets this tighten this quick. for so many people in a uniform way across the world, we still believe that we will see a wage inflation that is abating. and we believe that we have seen the peak of wage inflation in the united states, and we think we are close to seeing the peak of wage inflation in europe as well. and let me ask you this, jonas, because one of the by—products of globalisation in some ways is this increase in pay inequality, those earning the most earning more, the vast majority just stagnating. and that's causing a genuine cost of living crisis for hundreds of millions of people. i mean, it feels like it's a problem that's only getting worse. and i'm just wondering, can can that ever be addressed or has the horse already bolted? a lot of the globalisation, if you step back from globalisation and said, has it been beneficial for the world and for the population at large? and the answer to that

is unequivocally yes. but along with the yes comes the caveat that we've seen significant polarisation of the workforce between the haves and the have nots, principally driven by access to skills to take advantage of globalisation and more usage of technology, which is why we think it's so important for policymakers and organisations to be laser focused on reskilling and upskilling their workforce to enable them to participate in the wealth gains that have occurred. so they also can feel that they have prospects of improving the lives of themselves and their families and their children. yes, at the moment we've got thisjobs buoyancy, but we're also in the middle of a a cost of living crisis — if people start spending less and there's less demand for products and services, couldn't that lead to job losses ? we have seen that economists have downgraded the growth prospects for europe,

brought them down also for the united states, as well as for china. so overall, the global economy, economic growth is coming down. but what's important to note, of course, it's coming down from very lofty projections for 2022 and 2023. so the fact that it's coming down doesn't mean that we're tipping over into recession, but undoubtedly the effects of very strong wage inflation is driving, amongst other reasons, a cooling of the economy. but i think it's important to say while economic growth is cooling and slowing, it is still projected to be at a healthy level, still sustaining good employment across the world in all geographies. but from what we can tell when we speak with employers, their outlook is still optimistic. they're still looking to increase their workforces. well, on that note, jonas prising the big boss of manpower.

a real pleasure, my friend, having you with us. thanks for your time. and i'd love to talk to you again soon. thank you. so we've heard about the widespread challenges facing the global economy, rising prices, stretched supply chains and worker shortages. so how do governments and central banks steer the global economy through these very choppy waters? well, i caught up with the head of the imf, the international monetary fund, whose role it is to try and bring prosperity to the world. kristalina georgieva, always a pleasure having you join me. thank you for your time. kristalina, can we start with this? because just before the war in ukraine started, you warned the world economy was facing, and i quote, "a tough obstacle "course this year because of the ongoing impact "of coronavirus, the pressures of rising prices and growing "government debt levels." but since then, kristalina, we've got another major covid lockdown in china. look, i'm just wondering if the war in ukraine is an obstacle too far

for the global economy. it is definitely a major factor for setback of the recovery. just to give you a sense as to how significant it is, we did downgrade our projections for growth for this year because of 0micron from 4.9 to 4.4%. and now with the war hitting ukraine very severely, russia quite significantly, but also sending waves throughout the world, the downgrade is bigger. we went down to 3.6% for this year. and what is most significant is that in this round of downgrades, we actually are bringing our growth projections down for 143 countries. this is 86% of the world. and if you ask yourself,

who are the 14% that are lucky, they tend to be an oil exporting countries, food producing countries and countries that have no leftover from dealing with covid. but even for these countries, you would hear concern about uncertainty. we have rarely seen uncertainty so profound. your forecast is down to 3.6% for the global economy. do you think you're going to have to cut that number again? look, not out of the question. it depends very much on how the downside risks are going to materialise. and let's go through the risks in front of us. one, the duration of the war and the scale of the sanctions. this is highly uncertain. if it goes longer, if there are additional sanctions,

if there are more spill—overs from the war, it would be really bad for the world. two, we are very concerned about the importance for central banks to decisively counter inflation. they have to do it, but as they do it, what would be the impact on growth? what would be the impact on investment sentiment? three, we know that we are faced with a food crisis and whether it would materialise to a point that it creates in weak economies social unrest with consequences for how they wrestle with the problems they face. four, we have a mountain of debt. remember, 2020 was the highest increase in debt levels for a good reason, to put the floor under the world economy that was rattled by the pandemic. just to finish on a more positive note, we have

to remember that our projections for this year are still for positive growth. all of those risks you highlight has many worried of a recession. the senior chairman of goldman sachs, lloyd blankfein, is amongst the big names to voice those concerns. i've got to ask you. could we see a global recession? look, the cloud of uncertainty so thick that it would be irresponsible to make a definitive projection. what i can say is that inevitably there will be countries falling into recession. when they're in this most exposed category, haven't yet returned to pre—pandemic levels, highly dependent on trade with russia, or russia and ukraine, and highly dependent on energy imports. so we say to to our members, be very careful how much you spend and what for you spend. there are two priorities.

one, the very poor people, segments of society that are now struggling with high food and energy prices for people. for whom this is like 40, 50%, and now even more of their consumer basket. this is a major problem. i was looking at data for some developing countries where food is 40% and food prices have doubled. so there has to be support provided in a very targeted manner, preferably by providing subsidies directly to people. in other words, use social protection programmes, don't use subsidising across the board because then the rich people benefit from your very scarce public resource.

and very importantly, to support the businesses that are most damaged by the war. we know the work of the imf is all about prosperity, you know, making people's lives better. but, boy, kristalina, it feels like living standards are only going to to fall this year in much of the world. i mean, what are the consequences of that? i mean, we've already seen civil unrest in sri lanka. could could we could we see more of that elsewhere? 0h, definitely, yes. remember 2019, the year before the pandemic, it was the year of unrest from chile to paris — across the world we had seen it. what was the big driver? it was a sense of inequality growing and a sense of exclusion and also decisions

being taken that may be good decisions, but they are not supported by people. people are not brought on board. and i think if we are to learn any lessons from 2019, it is to be much more humble about policy decisions and engage in multiple ways with people, because policies must be for people, not the paper we write them on. one thing that the war has highlighted is globalfood security, prices at record highs. how does the world make up the shortfall lost from ukraine and russia as well, to make sure everyone has enough to eat? there is plenty of food, but it is not distributed in a way that reaches everyone. so we advocate strong before three avenues of action.

number one, trade needs to be retained open that we should not have a situation in which countries hold on food more than they need and create all kinds of barriers for food to move from one place to another. two, we ought to focus more on agricultural productivity, not only because of the war, but because of climate change. part of the food problem is because of weather—related decrease in agricultural productivity. so more resilient agriculture. it may not be a solver of the problem today, but it will be a solver of the problem tomorrow. and three, there has to be increase in agriculture, agricultural production, in places where this is possible. it is not going to be enough to fully compensate for the loss, but it can compensate for some of the loss.

and i have heard some positive announcements, for example, from canada in this regard. don't hold, you say. i mean, much of the world was relying on india, world's number two wheat producer, to help make up the shortfall. india has now put export restrictions in place. would you say india is wrong? i would really beg l them to reconsider. that is such a difficult moment for the world. they can play a positive role. i understand they need to feed their people. they have 1.4 billion of them. but let's all act in a collaborative manner, because only if we do it, we have a chance to to overcome this crisis. a few weeks ago, ukraine's president, of course, president zelensky, told a joint meeting of you at the imf and the world bank that his country needs $7 billion a monthjust

to keep going. is he going to get that money? i'm very confident that he i would get what is necessary to fill the financing gap, which we have estimated together with ukrainian authorities to be five billion a month. for at least the two, three months that are in front of us. there is a recognition that the ukrainian economy is the most devastated from the war, shrinking by 40% probably this year. and that the world needs to stand by ukraine and help ukraine manage. and of course, all of this moneyjust doesn't come out of nowhere. and given that you have, kristalina, major concerns about government debt, which you've mentioned, following the pandemic, is there enough will from richer countries to give ukraine the help it needs? can they even afford it? i do believe that in the short term, ukraine does need - significant financing, preferably grants, because as you noted,

the loan burden is significant. it may be necessary at some at some point this loan burden to be reviewed and revisited. but ukraine is going to get on its feet and start also raising revenues, and i'm confident in that. well, on that note, kristalina georgieva, my friend, the big boss of the imf, thank you. always appreciate your time. and i'll talk to you soon. thank you. well, that's all for this week. don't forget, you can keep up to date with the latest on the war in ukraine and how it's impacting our global economy on the bbc news website or smartphone app. you can also follow me on twitter. tweet me, i'll tweet you back. you can get me at @bbcaaron. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye— bye.

after a wet night across parts of england and wales, keep the umbrellas handy wherever you are during tuesday. there will be some sunny spells. it won't be wet all the time, but you may never be too far away from a shower that could be heavy, possibly thundery. now, low pressure is beginning to edge away. we have a flow of air coming in from the west—northwest to the uk. it is unstable, so along with those sunny spells, there will be some big clouds building at times with those showers breaking out. away from central, southeast and eastern england, where it could still be quite wet first thing, quite a bit of dry weather early on, probably chillest across western scotland, a few spots in low single figures. just wait for the showers to break out. after the rain's cleared away from the eastern side of england, hints of brightness, and then the showers break out here as well, so you can see them coming through. they will be accompanied by gusty winds. as mentioned earlier, it doesn't mean it's going to be raining all the time, we mayjust have a brief shower

and then a lengthy dry and bright spell afterwards. temperatures 12 celsius in stornoway, 18 celsius in london. most around 14—17 celsius, not too far from average for the time of year, perhaps a little bit below. a lot of dry weather to end the day as the showers fade away, but then overnight and into wednesday, from west then pushing eastwards, there will be some cloud and outbreaks of rain, which means as wednesday begins, the lower temperatures mid single figures in a few spots where you have the clearer skies across the eastern side of england. so, this latest batch of wet weather will push on through, mainly during wednesday morning, not much rain, though, into the early afternoon into east anglia and southeast england, whereas elsewhere, it brightens up again, and it will be another afternoon of sunshine and scattered showers. temperatures pretty similar. wednesday is going to be a windier day, some gusts in excess of 40 mph, parts of scotland, northern england, perhaps the south coast of england as well. now, high pressure trying to build in for thursday, not having much success, as another weather front snakes its way in from the atlantic. it does mean there will be quite a bit of cloud around on thursday, some outbreaks of rain pushing in, some heavy showers in northern scotland. ahead of the system towards the southeast, although expected to cloud

over, we mayjust see a few sunny spells, enough to lift temperatures back in a few spots into the low 20s, whereas elsewhere, it's as you were. now, high pressure does move in friday, and at least into the start of the weekend, settling things down. although it is high pressure, though, that will not translate into warmth.

welcome to bbc news. i'm david eades. our top stories — the un warns russia's blockade of ukraine could push tens of millions into severe hunger. it will have extraordinary consequences. we are already facing the worst food crisis since world war ii. ballmer you are talking about a declaration _ ballmer you are talking about a declaration of _ ballmer you are talking about a declaration of war _ ballmer you are talking about a declaration of war on _ ballmer you are talking about a declaration of war on global- declaration of war on global food security. a russian diplomat quits over his country's invasion of ukraine, calling it bloody and needless. ahead of a meeting of pacific nations, president biden vows to protect taiwan militarily, if it's attacked. new calls for british prime minister borisjohnson to resign, as more photos emerge of lockdown gatherings at downing street. and the viral disease, monkeypox, continues its global spread — health officials say mass vaccinations aren't needed.