this is bbc news, these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the british prime minister will face a vote of confidence in his leadership this evening it means at least 15% of the parliamentary party — equivalent to sa tory mps — have submitted a letter of no confidence in boris johnson's premiership. i have followed the rules that we have in place, i notified the prime minister yesterday that the threshold had been reached, and we agreed the timetable for a confidence vote to take place. close friend of the borisjohnson and former minister, jesse norman, becomes the latest mp to submit a letter, accusing the prime minister of presiding over a culture of �*casual law—breaking' at no.10.

but at least 180 conservative mps, a majority, will have to vote against the prime minister, if he's to leave office. several cabinet ministers have said they'll stand behind him. i think that he will deliver. for this country, and i think he would go on to win a general election. i the prime minister says he "welcomes the opportunity to make his case to mps". and in other news — britain says it'll send long—range rocket launchers to ukraine. russia's president putin responds by threatening to attack new targets. hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world. it's been confirmed that the prime minister borisjohnson will face a vote of confidence today in his leadership of the conservative party.

that vote will take place between six and eight o'clock this evening: there'll be a count straightaway, with the result expected shortly afterwards. only conservative mps will take part — the vote�*s been triggered by a threshold being met of at least 5a mps writing to sir graham brady, who chairs the backbench 1922 committee, saying they no longer have confidence in mr johnson's leadership. conservative mps began to turn against the prime minister after revelations about gatherings held during covid lockdowns — and the numbers gathered pace after sue gray's report into that partygate scandal. we'll talk to our political correspondent shortly — first let's hear sir graham brady's announcement this morning. the threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the banister has been passed. therefore a vote of confidence will take place within the rules of the 1922 committee. that vote will take place this

evening. in the house of commons between 6pm and 8pm. and we will announce the result shortly there after. there will be arrangements for proxy votes for any colleagues who cannot be present or in person in west minister and we will notify colleagues of those arrangements in the near future. colleagues of those arrangements in the nearfuture. did colleagues of those arrangements in the near future.— colleagues of those arrangements in the near future. did you communicate the near future. did you communicate the news directly _ the near future. did you communicate the news directly to _ the near future. did you communicate the news directly to the _ the near future. did you communicate the news directly to the prime - the news directly to the prime minister? how did he react? i am not auoin to minister? how did he react? i am not going to go — minister? how did he react? i am not going to go directly — minister? how did he react? i am not going to go directly into _ minister? how did he react? i am not going to go directly into that. - minister? how did he react? i am not going to go directly into that. i - going to go directly into that. i notify— going to go directly into that. i notify the _ going to go directly into that. i notify the privacy yesterday that the threshold had been reached and we agreed _ the threshold had been reached and we agreed that the timetable for a confidence you vote to take place. and he _ confidence you vote to take place. and he shanked my view which was also -- _ and he shanked my view which was also -- he — and he shanked my view which was also —— he shared my view which was also —— he shared my view which was also in _ also —— he shared my view which was also in line _ also —— he shared my view which was also in line that that vote should take place as soon as could reasonably take place and that would be today _ reasonably take place and that would be today. the threshold of 15% has been _ be today. the threshold of 15% has been passed. quiz be today. the threshold of15% has been passed. qui— been passed. quiz when was that i shau been passed. quiz when was that i

shall pass? — been passed. quiz when was that i shall pass? it _ been passed. quiz when was that i shall pass? it is _ been passed. quiz when was that i shall pass? it is slightly _ shall pass? it is slightly complicated _ shall pass? it is slightly complicated because i shall pass? it is slightly - complicated because colleagues shall pass? it is slightly _ complicated because colleagues said that it _ complicated because colleagues said that it should not be until the end of the _ that it should not be until the end of the jubilee celebrations. has that it should not be until the end of the jubilee celebrations.- of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed _ of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed as _ of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed as to _ of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed as to not _ of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed as to not interruptl of the jubilee celebrations. has it been delayed as to not interrupt the celebrations? i been delayed as to not interrupt the celebrations?— celebrations? i think that's not a bad summary — celebrations? i think that's not a bad summary of— celebrations? i think that's not a bad summary of what _ celebrations? i think that's not a bad summary of what took - celebrations? i think that's not a | bad summary of what took place. and as i said, he agreed with me that we should conduct the vote as quickly as we reasonably can. will the prime minister have - a chance to address the committee? it's always an open invitation to the prime minister to come and speak to the committee. so if he wishes to, we will arrange that meeting this afternoon. have you put one in yourself, a letter? i i'm not going to answer that question, but i think technically it would be possible, but it would be a slightly odd thing to do. are you surprised at the speed - with which number ten is moving? you've seen a few of these come and go, these events. _ i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules say it should be done as soon as is reasonable

in the circumstances. when we held a vote on theresa may's position in december 2018, we spoke the evening before, and we held a vote the next day. so i suppose it's in line with recent precedent, and i think it's good for everybody to get these things out of the way as quickly and efficiently as possible. i'm not going to speculate about leadership elections. we're holding a vote of confidence, and it will take place today, and you will have a result this evening. there is lots and lots of speculation— there is lots and lots of speculation is— there is lots and lots of speculation is there - there is lots and lots of speculation is there a l there is lots and lots of- speculation is there a feeling that he couldm — well, a confidence vote, obviously, will provide a clear answer. the party will have confidence in the leadership or not have confidence in the leadership. that's the question that will be before my colleagues

today for another year. if he survives, can you confirm he is safe for another year? or is there a possibility that the rules could be changed? technically it's possible for rules to be changed, but the rule at present is that there would be a year of a period of grace. might like that was graham brady chairman of the 1922 mitty. we can cross live to my colleague victoria derbyshire in westminster we are with one ofjohnson's top teen, therese coffey is a member of cabinet. we have had cabinet ministers tweeting 100% backing for the banister ahead of this no confidence vote tonight. it's all overfor confidence vote tonight. it's all over for your boss is on to? for over for your boss is on to? far from it i _ over for your boss is on to? far from it i expect _ over for your boss is on to? far from it i expect the banister will be endorsed today by a significant amount— be endorsed today by a significant amount of— be endorsed today by a significant amount of the party because the manifesto that got selected, 80 seat majority. _ manifesto that got selected, 80 seat majority, focusing on the big issues and they—

majority, focusing on the big issues and they have got he has got the big calls right _ and they have got he has got the big calls right. i think a lot of my colleagues will recognise that and they won't want a destructive divisive — they won't want a destructive divisive leadership contest the next few months. divisive leadership contest the next few months-— few months. even if he wins, it is potentially _ few months. even if he wins, it is potentially all _ few months. even if he wins, it is potentially all over, _ few months. even if he wins, it is potentially all over, you - few months. even if he wins, it is potentially all over, you know- few months. even if he wins, it is| potentially all over, you know that looking at previous leaders? i think what is different _ looking at previous leaders? i think what is different here _ looking at previous leaders? i think what is different here is _ looking at previous leaders? i think what is different here is that - looking at previous leaders? i think what is different here is that borisl what is different here is that boris won an _ what is different here is that boris won an 80 — what is different here is that boris won an 80 seat majority on his manifesto. he is also got us through these _ manifesto. he is also got us through these big _ manifesto. he is also got us through these big challenges, where is theresa — these big challenges, where is theresa may, much as she increased the vote. _ theresa may, much as she increased the vote, that is what boris achieved _ the vote, that is what boris achieved in 2019 or stop she didn't have a _ achieved in 2019 or stop she didn't have a majority and was also trying to put _ have a majority and was also trying to put through a pop a brexit deal that wasn't popular. he to put through a pop a brexit deal that wasn't popular.— to put through a pop a brexit deal that wasn't popular. he is trying to ri u- his that wasn't popular. he is trying to rip op his own _ that wasn't popular. he is trying to rip up his own deal _ that wasn't popular. he is trying to rip up his own deal now— that wasn't popular. he is trying to rip up his own deal now isn't - that wasn't popular. he is trying to rip up his own deal now isn't it, - rip up his own deal now isn't it, let's be honest.— rip up his own deal now isn't it, let's be honest. there are more chances let's be honest. there are more changes coming _ let's be honest. there are more changes coming in _ let's be honest. there are more changes coming in terms - let's be honest. there are more changes coming in terms of- let's be honest. there are more i changes coming in terms of other aspects. — changes coming in terms of other aspects, that is the reason why there _ aspects, that is the reason why there are — aspects, that is the reason why there are various articles in the northorh— there are various articles in the northern ireland protocol when something isn't working. he has the support— something isn't working. he has the sopport and — something isn't working. he has the support and a former prime minister, asking _ support and a former prime minister, asking the _

support and a former prime minister, asking the commission to be more flexible _ asking the commission to be more flexible in— asking the commission to be more flexible in how they make this happen — flexible in how they make this happen. because peace in northern ireland _ happen. because peace in northern ireland as _ happen. because peace in northern ireland as the priority. never let the less— ireland as the priority. never let the less whether is is about the issues — the less whether is is about the issues right now, it's the issues right— issues right now, it's the issues right now— issues right now, it's the issues right now that is what people are concerned — right now that is what people are concerned about, the cost of living challenge — concerned about, the cost of living challenge. the need to get on top of the backlogs in the nhs after the covert— the backlogs in the nhs after the covert mac. so we need to get on, support— covert mac. so we need to get on, support the _ covert mac. so we need to get on, support the banister today. your conservative _ support the banister today. your conservative mps _ support the banister today. your conservative mps who _ support the banister today. gm;- conservative mps who are not supporting him, steve, hello. iwas taught he later i promise, steve. —— i will talk to you later i promise, steve. even people like andrew ellison, a big former borisjohnson supporter, a big brexit supporter. she said this is to do with unacceptable failings of leadership that cannot be tolerated and are the responsibility of the pier. so irrespective of whether conservative

mps may think he got some of the big corporate site, not all let's be honest. people like angela lets led than are saying, his time is up. i think she is referring to her interpretation of the sue gray report. — interpretation of the sue gray report, and i know what has happened since then _ report, and i know what has happened since then. the prime minister has made _ since then. the prime minister has made changes within downing street to have _ made changes within downing street to have a _ made changes within downing street to have a more functional operation. what _ to have a more functional operation. what i _ to have a more functional operation. what i do _ to have a more functional operation. what i do see is a buy minister focused — what i do see is a buy minister focused on _ what i do see is a buy minister focused on the challenges people are facing _ focused on the challenges people are facing his— focused on the challenges people are facin., ,. ., focused on the challenges people are facin. _ ., ., facing. his character has not changed. — facing. his character has not changed, and _ facing. his character has not changed, and that _ facing. his character has not| changed, and that ultimately facing. his character has not i changed, and that ultimately is facing. his character has not - changed, and that ultimately is what is at the heart of his lack of support from some conservative mps, it is about his behaviour, his character. it is about his behaviour, his character-— character. dare i say, at the leadership _ character. dare i say, at the leadership contest - character. dare i say, at the leadership contest a - character. dare i say, at the leadership contest a few - character. dare i say, at the i leadership contest a few years character. dare i say, at the - leadership contest a few years ago he no _ leadership contest a few years ago he no he _ leadership contest a few years ago he no he didn't get the support of his entire — he no he didn't get the support of his entire party, you will never have the — his entire party, you will never have the full support. nevertheless as i have the full support. nevertheless as i say— have the full support. nevertheless as i say she was referring to the support— as i say she was referring to the support then the prime minister has been understandably held the highest of hundreds and has been through the inquiries. _ of hundreds and has been through the inquiries, undertaken by not only

leaving _ inquiries, undertaken by not only leaving civil servant but of course by the _ leaving civil servant but of course by the metropolitan police. i think the focus — by the metropolitan police. i think the focus now has to be on not only the focus now has to be on not only the chaos— the focus now has to be on not only the chaos of— the focus now has to be on not only the chaos of the devices or destructive leadership contest, but the back— destructive leadership contest, but the back the pm to date that is what i am the back the pm to date that is what lam certainly the back the pm to date that is what i am certainly doing and i am encouraging my colleagues to do. so he has _ encouraging my colleagues to do. so he has not _ encouraging my colleagues to do. so he has not change that has a? | encouraging my colleagues to do. so he has not change that has a? i am not sure what _ he has not change that has a? i am not sure what you _ he has not change that has a? i am not sure what you mean _ he has not change that has a? i am not sure what you mean by changing. his focus _ not sure what you mean by changing. his focus is _ not sure what you mean by changing. his focus is all we spent what is best— his focus is all we spent what is best for— his focus is all we spent what is best for the people of britain, that is about— best for the people of britain, that is about levelling up trying to get through— is about levelling up trying to get through covert mac with its challenges that came through that. the biggest crisis in peacetime britain — the biggest crisis in peacetime britain for at least a decade if not centuries — britain for at least a decade if not centuries. those things we are now through— centuries. those things we are now through that, can you imagine if we had not _ through that, can you imagine if we had not had — through that, can you imagine if we had not had really decisive things on things— had not had really decisive things on things like vaccines, global leadership in that regard also the standing — leadership in that regard also the standing up to putin. these are the sort of— standing up to putin. these are the sort of values which he really champions in order to make sure that british— champions in order to make sure that british people get on and we need to focus on _ british people get on and we need to focus on their priorities. if he went to night, _ focus on their priorities. if he went to night, then _ focus on their priorities. if he went to night, then what? i l focus on their priorities. if he i went to night, then what? i think focus on their priorities. if he - went to night, then what? i think we have to keep — went to night, then what? i think we have to keep focusing _ went to night, then what? i think we have to keep focusing on _ went to night, then what? i think we have to keep focusing on delivery i have to keep focusing on delivery whether— have to keep focusing on delivery whether that is, like my

administration in the dwp we are helping _ administration in the dwp we are helping people get back into work, we have _ helping people get back into work, we have record number of people on payroll— we have record number of people on payroll but— we have record number of people on payroll but we want to help improve the cost _ payroll but we want to help improve the cost of — payroll but we want to help improve the cost of living and we are seeing things— the cost of living and we are seeing things at— the cost of living and we are seeing things at the national living wage going _ things at the national living wage going up — things at the national living wage going up. next month we will see a significant — going up. next month we will see a significant tax cut in effect for 70% _ significant tax cut in effect for 70% of— significant tax cut in effect for 70% of working households. these are things— 70% of working households. these are things that _ 70% of working households. these are things that he really wants to work as on— things that he really wants to work as on peoples priorities. how worried are _ as on peoples priorities. how worried are you _ as on peoples priorities. how worried are you that - as on peoples priorities. how worried are you that the i as on peoples priorities. time" worried are you that the noise around partygate that your party is not getting credit for those things that you have just described? i am that you have 'ust described? i am conscious that you have just described? i am conscious that _ that you have just described? i am conscious that people _ that you have just described? i am conscious that people want to keep talking _ conscious that people want to keep talking about this issue i am conscious— talking about this issue i am conscious there will be a parliamentary inquiry. overall i think— parliamentary inquiry. overall i think it — parliamentary inquiry. overall i think it is — parliamentary inquiry. overall i think it is case in lots of eye investigations of early happened, those _ investigations of early happened, those conclusions are out there. of course _ those conclusions are out there. of course people will come to their own judgments — course people will come to their own judgments. i am confident about the prime _ judgments. i am confident about the prime minister i don't think he has led parliament. ithink prime minister i don't think he has led parliament. i think he prime minister i don't think he has led parliament. ithink he has prime minister i don't think he has led parliament. i think he has the priorities— led parliament. i think he has the priorities of people at the heart of what he _ priorities of people at the heart of what he is — priorities of people at the heart of what he is doing, and whether that is to say— what he is doing, and whether that is to say about levelling up, jobs, backlogs. — is to say about levelling up, jobs, backlogs, safer streets. this is what _ backlogs, safer streets. this is what people are really caring about in my— what people are really caring about in my daily — what people are really caring about in my daily exteriors with my constituents. |

in my daily exteriors with my constituents.— in my daily exteriors with my constituents. . , ., ., constituents. i am 'ust hearing that boris johnson — constituents. i am 'ust hearing that boris johnson will i constituents. i am just hearing that boris johnson will address - constituents. i am just hearing that boris johnson will address privately borisjohnson will address privately his constituents, so that will be essentially his final opportunity to persuade them to vote for him in the confidence vote tonight. that persuade them to vote for him in the confidence vote tonight.— confidence vote tonight. that has been my expensive _ confidence vote tonight. that has been my expensive when - confidence vote tonight. that has been my expensive when there . confidence vote tonight. that has i been my expensive when there has been _ been my expensive when there has been a _ been my expensive when there has been a challenge. we been my expensive when there has been a challenge.— been a challenge. we were hearing earlier from — been a challenge. we were hearing earlier from a _ been a challenge. we were hearing earlier from a pollster _ been a challenge. we were hearing earlier from a pollster that - earlier from a pollster that suggested that 55% of conservative voters across the country, your voters, 55% do not think boris johnson is trustworthy. that is terminal for johnson is trustworthy. that is terminalfor up prime minister, be honest. i terminal for up prime minister, be honest. . . , terminal for up prime minister, be honest. , ., , , ., , terminal for up prime minister, be honest. , ., , , , honest. i understand why people is anno ed. honest. i understand why people is annoyed- no. _ honest. i understand why people is annoyed- no. it— honest. i understand why people is annoyed. no, it is— honest. i understand why people is annoyed. no, it is more _ honest. i understand why people is annoyed. no, it is more than i annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed. _ annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed. they _ annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed, they think - annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed, they think he i annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed, they think he is i annoyed. no, it is more than annoyed, they think he is a l annoyed. no, it is more than i annoyed, they think he is a liar, your own voters, he is not trustworthy. that is fundamental. mr; trustworthy. that is fundamental. my experience of the by minister is he focuses _ experience of the by minister is he focuses on — experience of the by minister is he focuses on fundamental issues. 30 focuses on fundamental issues. so all focuses on fundamental issues. all these focuses on fundamental issues. sr all these voters are wrong? yet i focuses on fundamental issues. so l all these voters are wrong? yet i am not challenging _ all these voters are wrong? yet i am not challenging their _ all these voters are wrong? yet i am not challenging their views i am saying _ not challenging their views i am saying but i think the prime minister— saying but i think the prime minister is able to continue, which

he got _ minister is able to continue, which he got highest percent of the vote of any— he got highest percent of the vote of any banister. i believe he delivers _ of any banister. i believe he delivers on the promises that he makes _ delivers on the promises that he makes to— delivers on the promises that he makes to people.— delivers on the promises that he makes to people. which is why he is ri -|n~ makes to people. which is why he is ri -'n~ u- makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as — makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as brexit _ makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as brexit deal? _ makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as brexit deal? he - makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as brexit deal? he is i makes to people. which is why he is ripping up as brexit deal? he is not| ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ri -|n~ ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ri -'n~ u- ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ripping up the _ ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ripping up the deal _ ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ripping up the deal that _ ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ripping up the deal that was - ripping up as brexit deal? he is not ripping up the deal that was an i ripping up the deal that was an article — ripping up the deal that was an article 16 — ripping up the deal that was an article 16 always on the protocol for these — article 16 always on the protocol for these things that were not working _ for these things that were not working. tony blair has come out saying _ working. tony blair has come out saying that — working. tony blair has come out saying that we need both government and european commission to really focus _ and european commission to really focus on _ and european commission to really focus on making this work and not to be abandoning the peace in northern ireland _ be abandoning the peace in northern ireland. that is what doing. breaking _ ireland. that is what doing. breaking the promise of putting up taxes? i breaking the promise of putting up taxes? , ., , �* , breaking the promise of putting up taxes? ,., , �* , , taxes? i promised the british people and ovals, taxes? i promised the british people and ovals. they _ taxes? i promised the british people and ovals, they really _ taxes? i promised the british people and ovals, they really are _ taxes? i promised the british people and ovals, they really are not - taxes? i promised the british people and ovals, they really are not fools l and ovals, they really are not fools they know — and ovals, they really are not fools they know when a package of over £4 billion— they know when a package of over £4 billion is— they know when a package of over £4 billion is given to people, when they— billion is given to people, when they needed it during covert. that has to— they needed it during covert. that has to be — they needed it during covert. that has to be paid for. and we are doing that by— has to be paid for. and we are doing that by trying to get growth but also a _ that by trying to get growth but also a recognition that we need to pay for— also a recognition that we need to pay for that as well. we cannot keep having _ pay for that as well. we cannot keep having deficits forever. the british people _ having deficits forever. the british people are — having deficits forever. the british people are not stupid. the

having deficits forever. the british people are not stupid.— having deficits forever. the british people are not stupid. the thing is in the conservative _ people are not stupid. the thing is in the conservative manifesto i people are not stupid. the thing is in the conservative manifesto you | in the conservative manifesto you said you will not put up. we didn't antici ate said you will not put up. we didn't anticipate there _ said you will not put up. we didn't anticipate there will _ said you will not put up. we didn't anticipate there will be _ said you will not put up. we didn't anticipate there will be a - said you will not put up. we didn't anticipate there will be a covert i anticipate there will be a covert mac process. the british people are not fools. _ mac process. the british people are not fools, we stood up as a country to try _ not fools, we stood up as a country to try and _ not fools, we stood up as a country to try and have a covert lead by a lot of— to try and have a covert lead by a lot of the — to try and have a covert lead by a lot of the government working very closely _ lot of the government working very closely with the nhs and distribution of that vaccine but it was those — distribution of that vaccine but it was those big important decisions that they— was those big important decisions that they got right, backing people together— that they got right, backing people together and get the vaccines and that's— together and get the vaccines and that's what they did and we made those _ that's what they did and we made those important decisions. thank you. _ those important decisions. thank you, victoria those important decisions. thank you. victori— those important decisions. thank you, victoria thank you very much talkin: to you, victoria thank you very much talking to us _ you, victoria thank you very much talking to us thank _ you, victoria thank you very much talking to us thank you _ you, victoria thank you very much talking to us thank you very i you, victoria thank you very much talking to us thank you very much j talking to us thank you very much for holding this umbrella for us both i really appreciate it. take care. so that is steve you can hear in the background who may actually remember, some of you will remember through the whole brexit referendum and all the campaigning, steve was a regular feature and all the campaigning, steve was a regularfeature down and all the campaigning, steve was a regular feature down here at college

green and i think me and steve are in good relations so hopefully he won't be too loud, but will see. bear with me as i, hang on. we are going to talk... bear with me, i am reading on my phone. we are going to talk about how a leadership contest works. i can't remember my pin code. bear with me. this is how a leadership contest works, damian you are a chance please hold this umbrella for me. i'm so sorry. lets umbrella for me. i'm so sorry. lets talk about — umbrella for me. i'm so sorry. lets talk about how _ umbrella for me. i'm so sorry. lets talk about how a _ umbrella for me. i'm so sorry. lets talk about how a leadership contest works _ talk about how a leadership contest works you — talk about how a leadership contest works. you tell us. what we will get the vote _ works. you tell us. what we will get the vote this — works. you tell us. what we will get the vote this evening, a vote inside a secret— the vote this evening, a vote inside a secret ballot that is what's really — a secret ballot that is what's really crucial to remember because

for all— really crucial to remember because for all the — really crucial to remember because for all the public statements you hear. _ for all the public statements you hear, what matters is what goes into that paper _ hear, what matters is what goes into that paper and what goes into the box so _ that paper and what goes into the box so this— that paper and what goes into the box so this is a real test for the bubbling — box so this is a real test for the bubbling discontent we hear how many people _ bubbling discontent we hear how many people are _ bubbling discontent we hear how many people are going to put their names down _ people are going to put their names down now — people are going to put their names down now. what will the number that comes— down now. what will the number that comes out _ down now. what will the number that comes out. that number will be announced _ comes out. that number will be announced by sue graham brady, chairman— announced by sue graham brady, chairman of the backbench1922 committee shortly after eight they will tally— committee shortly after eight they will tally the votes. they will do that in— will tally the votes. they will do that in there and then we will know. and based _ that in there and then we will know. and based on that will be whether boris _ and based on that will be whether borisjohnson wins, so and based on that will be whether boris johnson wins, so gets 180 and based on that will be whether borisjohnson wins, so gets 180 is the magical number. half of tory mps the magical number. half of tory mp5 is what _ the magical number. half of tory mp5 is what he _ the magical number. half of tory mp5 is what he needs. if he wins, 0k. hes— is what he needs. if he wins, 0k. he's there — is what he needs. if he wins, 0k. he's there but then we will look at the number of votes he got. back into murray's may, when she was challenged she got roughly two thirds _ challenged she got roughly two thirds of— challenged she got roughly two thirds of people backing her. but she still— thirds of people backing her. but she still went within months. so it is still— she still went within months. so it is still seen — she still went within months. so it is still seen as pretty damaging so that might be some sort of benchmark to look— that might be some sort of benchmark to look out— that might be some sort of benchmark to look out for. if boris johnson loses _ to look out for. if boris johnson loses more _ to look out for. if boris johnson loses more than he is out. but then

the process— loses more than he is out. but then the process usually is that the prime — the process usually is that the prime minister were tay on as a caretaker~ — prime minister were tay on as a caretaker. he could choose to go we could _ caretaker. he could choose to go we could have _ caretaker. he could choose to go we could have different deputy turkey. but, could have different deputy turkey. but. if _ could have different deputy turkey. but. if he _ could have different deputy turkey. but, if he stays we then go to a process. — but, if he stays we then go to a process, mps have to choose who might _ process, mps have to choose who might be — process, mps have to choose who might be the new challenger. that would _ might be the new challenger. that would go — might be the new challenger. that would go ultimately to the tory party— would go ultimately to the tory party in — would go ultimately to the tory party in the country. that could take _ party in the country. that could take several weeks. why party in the country. that could take several weeks.— party in the country. that could take several weeks. why are we here, wh is this take several weeks. why are we here, why is this happening? _ take several weeks. why are we here, why is this happening? the _ take several weeks. why are we here, why is this happening? the thing i why is this happening? the thing that is clearly _ why is this happening? the thing that is clearly tipped _ why is this happening? the thing that is clearly tipped us - why is this happening? the thing that is clearly tipped us over i why is this happening? the thing that is clearly tipped us over the | that is clearly tipped us over the edge _ that is clearly tipped us over the edge was — that is clearly tipped us over the edge was the whole partygate ever. but think— edge was the whole partygate ever. but think back. it is pretty extraordinary, that electoral victory— extraordinary, that electoral victory that borisjohnson extraordinary, that electoral victory that boris johnson that the party— victory that boris johnson that the party too — victory that boris johnson that the party too. now, two years later, we are now — party too. now, two years later, we are now in _ party too. now, two years later, we are now in this position. there will be multiple — are now in this position. there will be multiple things that have built up be multiple things that have built up to— be multiple things that have built up to this — be multiple things that have built up to this. it is notjust partygate. we have had other mp5 on this morning saying things. if we go

back. _ this morning saying things. if we go back, putting their fingers on a few things _ back, putting their fingers on a few things. borisjohnson has been under investigation for all sorts of things _ investigation for all sorts of things. the funding of his flat was one thing. — things. the funding of his flat was one thing, the funding is of his holidays — one thing, the funding is of his holidays was up there have been all sorts of— holidays was up there have been all sorts of uncomfortable things for tory mps — sorts of uncomfortable things for tory mps. and then we saw the on patterns _ tory mps. and then we saw the on patterns in — tory mps. and then we saw the on patterns in a fair, the mp we tried to get— patterns in a fair, the mp we tried to get mps— patterns in a fair, the mp we tried to get mps to try and save them with this position he had been criticised by the _ this position he had been criticised by the standards committee that mp was very— by the standards committee that mp was very uncomfortable having to do that he _ was very uncomfortable having to do that he eventually resigned, two by—elections that was one of them. conservatives lost out to by—election badly. then we get into the partygate affair and that really has been — the partygate affair and that really has been the thing that, the revelations that have come out of that _ revelations that have come out of that. really, ithink revelations that have come out of that. really, i think the conservative mps having to defend that. particularly in the last week or so. _ that. particularly in the last week or so, hearing from constituents that is— or so, hearing from constituents that is all— or so, hearing from constituents that is all built up this sort of head of— that is all built up this sort of head of steam. we that is all built up this sort of head of steam.— that is all built up this sort of head of steam. ~ ., ,, ., .,

head of steam. we were talking to a ulse to head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early _ head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early and _ head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early and of— head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early and of course - head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early and of course you i head of steam. we were talking to a pulse to early and of course you can| pulse to early and of course you can say the only polls that count or on election day, or the once a night for example but i asked him, why did he think from his polling, the conservatives didn't seem to be getting the credit for the emergency budget which they were calling an emergency budget, the other week. any of said two words. boris johnson. �* . any of said two words. boris johnson. . , ., , any of said two words. boris johnson-— any of said two words. boris johnson. . , johnson. and it is, as you say, billions of _ johnson. and it is, as you say, billions of pounds _ johnson. and it is, as you say, billions of pounds being i johnson. and it is, as you say, i billions of pounds being mobilised for this _ billions of pounds being mobilised for this. to be put into this. but i think— for this. to be put into this. but i think the — for this. to be put into this. but i think the issue many tory mps feel is that. _ think the issue many tory mps feel is that, exactly, their leader, the perceptions of their leader, what has happened with the whole partygate affair, the perceptions of behaviour— partygate affair, the perceptions of behaviour and the acceptance of blame _ behaviour and the acceptance of blame or— behaviour and the acceptance of blame or how borisjohnson has responded to all of that, that is an absolutely— responded to all of that, that is an absolutely critical. if you look at the polling, what it shows is that from _ the polling, what it shows is that from the — the polling, what it shows is that from the beginning of this whole partygate affair that is when the dial has —

partygate affair that is when the dial has shifted. shifted markedly, very quickly and hasn't really changed _ very quickly and hasn't really changed since then. 30 very quickly and hasn't really changed since then.- very quickly and hasn't really changed since then. so what tweets we had from — changed since then. so what tweets we had from conservative _ changed since then. so what tweets we had from conservative mps i changed since then. so what tweets i we had from conservative mps today, whether they are unsupportive and whether they are unsupportive and whether they are in support of mr johnson or not? he whether they are in support of mr johnson or not?— johnson or not? he had quite a number of _ johnson or not? he had quite a number of support, _ johnson or not? he had quite a j number of support, particularly what we saw— number of support, particularly what we saw was — number of support, particularly what we saw was cabinet miss ministers coming _ we saw was cabinet miss ministers coming out — we saw was cabinet miss ministers coming out to support him. this morning — coming out to support him. this morning we had rishi sunak, the chancellor— morning we had rishi sunak, the chancellor came out pretty early. he said that _ then we had michael gove, he came out as— then we had michael gove, he came out as welt — then we had michael gove, he came out as well. he had a history with boris _ out as well. he had a history with borisjohnson, when he was coming out for— borisjohnson, when he was coming out for the — borisjohnson, when he was coming

out for the leadership. and then the foreign secretary, liz truss _ they are all rallying round this message — they are all rallying round this message of getting the big right. which _ message of getting the big right. which they say boris johnson is critics— which they say boris johnson is critics disagree with, other than i think— critics disagree with, other than i think their— critics disagree with, other than i think their vaccine roll out particularly. but, the ukraine war, here _ particularly. but, the ukraine war, here talking about the need to get on with— here talking about the need to get on with delivering, what people want _ on with delivering, what people want the — on with delivering, what people want. the trouble with that message ithink— want. the trouble with that message i think is— want. the trouble with that message i think is that that is the message that we _ i think is that that is the message that we have been hearing. the cabinet. — that we have been hearing. the cabinet, numberten save that we have been hearing. the cabinet, number ten save for several weeks _ cabinet, number ten save for several weeks now _ cabinet, number ten save for several weeks now. and cabinet, number ten save for several weeks now— weeks now. and yet we are now in this position- _ weeks now. and yet we are now in this position. yes, _ weeks now. and yet we are now in this position. yes, that _ weeks now. and yet we are now in this position. yes, that hasn't i this position. yes, that hasn't resonated _ this position. yes, that hasn't resonated enough _ this position. yes, that hasn't resonated enough with - this position. yes, that hasn't

resonated enough with at - this position. yes, that hasn't resonated enough with at a i this position. yes, that hasn't - resonated enough with at a number of mps. ., ~' , ., , resonated enough with at a number of mps. ., ~ ,, , . resonated enough with at a number of mps. ., ~ , . mps. thank you, very much david i think we're — mps. thank you, very much david i think we're going _ mps. thank you, very much david i think we're going to _ mps. thank you, very much david i think we're going to talk— mps. thank you, very much david i think we're going to talk to - mps. thank you, very much david i think we're going to talk to katie . think we're going to talk to katie right now she is a deputy editor, the political editor of the conservative spectator magazine. is he going to win?i conservative spectator magazine. is he going to win?— he going to win? i think the exoeetation _ he going to win? i think the expectation when _ he going to win? i think the expectation when you - he going to win? i think the | expectation when you speak he going to win? i think the i expectation when you speak is he going to win? i think the - expectation when you speak is its more _ expectation when you speak is its more than — expectation when you speak is its more than likely boris johnson should — more than likely boris johnson should win this. as someone said to me he _ should win this. as someone said to me he knows— should win this. as someone said to me he knows the party very well they will had _ me he knows the party very well they will had to _ me he knows the party very well they will had to have to be pretty incompetent to lose the vote at this point _ incompetent to lose the vote at this point that— incompetent to lose the vote at this point that you never know. so i think_ point that you never know. so i think the — point that you never know. so i think the sense is that when you are looking _ think the sense is that when you are looking at— think the sense is that when you are looking at what we are going to learn _ looking at what we are going to learn from this vote. what is the margin— learn from this vote. what is the margin of— learn from this vote. what is the margin of victory. because even if boris _ margin of victory. because even if borisjohnson does when margin of victory. because even if boris johnson does when this, looking — boris johnson does when this, looking historically a confidence voles _ looking historically a confidence votes. they are very rarely or a net plus for— votes. they are very rarely or a net plus for the — votes. they are very rarely or a net plus for the leader. then normally weaken _ plus for the leader. then normally weaken the leader even if you can

claim _ weaken the leader even if you can claim it _ weaken the leader even if you can claim it as— weaken the leader even if you can claim it as a — weaken the leader even if you can claim it as a victory, technically speaking — claim it as a victory, technically s-ueakin. ~ , ., claim it as a victory, technically s-ueakin.~ , ., claim it as a victory, technically s-ueakin. ~ , ., ~ ., speaking. why do you think we are here, speaking. why do you think we are here. today. _ speaking. why do you think we are here, today, now? _ speaking. why do you think we are here, today, now? i— speaking. why do you think we are here, today, now? ithink- speaking. why do you think we are here, today, now? i think this - speaking. why do you think we are here, today, now? i think this has| here, today, now? i think this has been a slow _ here, today, now? i think this has been a slow build _ here, today, now? i think this has been a slow build and _ here, today, now? i think this has been a slow build and it _ here, today, now? i think this has been a slow build and it goes - here, today, now? i think this hasl been a slow build and it goes back to obviously the very beginning of the year— to obviously the very beginning of the year and the things that were pretty— the year and the things that were pretty rocky for boris johnson. there — pretty rocky for boris johnson. there was— pretty rocky for boris johnson. there was lots of talk about partygate, about a confidence vote. it is not _ partygate, about a confidence vote. it is notiust— partygate, about a confidence vote. it is notjust partygate, i think we had obviously the stories of lockdown breaches in downing street, but there _ lockdown breaches in downing street, but there was also things such as the owen — but there was also things such as the owen paterson affair, that was a bil the owen paterson affair, that was a big issue _ the owen paterson affair, that was a big issue in — the owen paterson affair, that was a big issue in terms of parliamentary support— big issue in terms of parliamentary sopport for— big issue in terms of parliamentary support for the prime minister. where — support for the prime minister. where mps voted were told to vote by number _ where mps voted were told to vote by number ten _ where mps voted were told to vote by number ten is a back one of their colleagues — number ten is a back one of their colleagues of his life, the number ten to— colleagues of his life, the number ten to do— colleagues of his life, the number ten to do a — colleagues of his life, the number ten to do a u—turn. sol colleagues of his life, the number ten to do a u—turn. so i think there's— ten to do a u—turn. so i think there's been a few things that has made _ there's been a few things that has made mps — there's been a few things that has made mps question the judgment of borisjohnson and those made mps question the judgment of boris johnson and those in made mps question the judgment of borisjohnson and those in number ten. borisjohnson and those in number ten~ i_ borisjohnson and those in number ten~ ithink— borisjohnson and those in number ten. i think the situation in ukraine _ ten. i think the situation in ukraine came along and it was almost suspended _ ukraine came along and it was almost suspended animation is described it. where, _ suspended animation is described it. where, questions about boris johnson's leadership took a back—seat. some people change their

mind _ back—seat. some people change their mind but _ back—seat. some people change their mind. but the publication of the sue gray report— mind. but the publication of the sue gray report has been a point and since _ gray report has been a point and since its — gray report has been a point and since its publication there has been a steady— since its publication there has been a steady trickle of mps coming out to say— a steady trickle of mps coming out to say they — a steady trickle of mps coming out to say they no longer have confidence in the prime minister. that is— confidence in the prime minister. that is meant that today has been something that allies of boris johnson — something that allies of boris johnson have been seen coming because — johnson have been seen coming because it — johnson have been seen coming because it is from across the party. he is— because it is from across the party. he is coming — because it is from across the party. he is coming out and saying that they no— he is coming out and saying that they no longer support the prime minister~ — they no longer support the prime minister. , , , minister. does it suit number ten that is swift. _ minister. does it suit number ten that is swift, quick _ minister. does it suit number ten that is swift, quick and _ minister. does it suit number ten that is swift, quick and tonight - minister. does it suit number ten that is swift, quick and tonight as | that is swift, quick and tonight as opposed to it after the two by—elections injune? yes opposed to it after the two by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways. _ by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways. yes. — by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways. yes. i— by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways, yes, i think _ by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways, yes, i think it - by-elections in june? yes i think in some ways, yes, i think it is - some ways, yes, i think it is definitely— some ways, yes, i think it is definitely preferable after the prime — definitely preferable after the prime minister after the by—elections. i think you can on must _ by—elections. i think you can on must have _ by—elections. i think you can on must have a _ by—elections. i think you can on must have a soulful sense of security _ must have a soulful sense of security. when theresa may won her confidence _ security. when theresa may won her confidence vote she left within ten months _ confidence vote she left within ten months. they move very quickly. and there _ months. they move very quickly. and there is— months. they move very quickly. and there is a _ months. they move very quickly. and there is a sense actually don't give mps time — there is a sense actually don't give mps time to talk about it, move fast so that— mps time to talk about it, move fast so that the _ mps time to talk about it, move fast so that the vote is today. we are

hearing from some supporters of the prime _ hearing from some supporters of the prime minister that we should when this and _ prime minister that we should when this and then he is safe for 12 months _ this and then he is safe for 12 months. underthe rules this and then he is safe for 12 months. under the rules of the leadership contest you couldn't technically challenge them again for another— technically challenge them again for another year. technically challenge them again for anotheryear. i technically challenge them again for another year. i think there is a problem — another year. i think there is a problem that if if the majority of the party— problem that if if the majority of the party really turn on boris johnson _ the party really turn on boris johnson there's always a way to find to pressure — johnson there's always a way to find to pressure a prime minister out for example _ to pressure a prime minister out for example we — to pressure a prime minister out for example we could have the majority choose _ example we could have the majority choose to _ example we could have the majority choose to change the rules at a later— choose to change the rules at a later date — choose to change the rules at a later date so this idea that he is safer— later date so this idea that he is safer a — later date so this idea that he is safer a year if he wins i don't think— safer a year if he wins i don't think it — safer a year if he wins i don't think it is _ safer a year if he wins i don't think it is a _ safer a year if he wins i don't think it is a watertight statement. even _ think it is a watertight statement. even if— think it is a watertight statement. even if supporters of the prime minister— even if supporters of the prime minister said he could just go for an election, if the opinion of the party— an election, if the opinion of the party turns— an election, if the opinion of the party turns i knew there will always be away _ party turns i knew there will always be awa . , ., ., be away. right, you mention theresa ma and be away. right, you mention theresa may and previous _ be away. right, you mention theresa may and previous conservative - be away. right, you mention theresa may and previous conservative prime j may and previous conservative prime ministers. once there is a vote of no confidence even if the individual wins, it doesn't end well. if he loses orjust wins, it doesn't end well. if he loses or just wins wins, it doesn't end well. if he loses orjust wins by wins, it doesn't end well. if he loses or just wins by a wins, it doesn't end well. if he loses orjust wins by a tiny margin. is that when we will see authority

really draining away from him? win yes, i think this is the tricky thing for borisjohnson. he has had some of the supporters backing him saying, bring it on, we will show that we will smash this vote. rebels of the expose some people who didn't back brexit stop but confidence votes rarely work like this. mac for example theresa may, is boris johnson going to fare better than theresa may i think people be looking for benchmarks like this. how much harder is it for him to govern after. to read a 163% of the vote, will he do better or worse? you would think by minister who won a majority of 80% should do much better. so i think there is expectations are high, in that sense of borisjohnson. i think it is quite clear that by minister has no

desire to resign and even if he won by a handful of votes, he would stay and fight and he would face down his critics. but can he then pushed government legislation through, does he start to suffer their resignations. this doesn't have to happen overnight a good start to happen overnight a good start to happen after this by—election of this month. if he had double losses. that is a squeeze effect. it could in be this slow, slow decaying of his authority after this vote. i think that is a hard thing here. evenif think that is a hard thing here. even if he wins the vote perhaps thatis even if he wins the vote perhaps that is going to be the easy hit. i can only imagine what voters are going to think about this, people who are in the middle of the cost of living crisis. you may have had temporary respite over the last couple of days although not everyone was involved in thejubilee celebrations. looking at a party turning in on itself. yes celebrations. looking at a party turning in on itself.— turning in on itself. yes and i think this _ turning in on itself. yes and i think this is _ turning in on itself. yes and i think this is one _

turning in on itself. yes and i think this is one of _ turning in on itself. yes and i think this is one of the - turning in on itself. yes and i - think this is one of the argument for people — think this is one of the argument for people who want boris johnson to stay in _ for people who want boris johnson to stay in this— for people who want boris johnson to stay in this position, also some of the cabinet — stay in this position, also some of the cabinet ministers who say he should _ the cabinet ministers who say he should stay is effectively that now is not _ should stay is effectively that now is not the — should stay is effectively that now is not the time for a tory leadership contest. it is going to look bizarre for the vast majority of voters — look bizarre for the vast majority of voters. and there have been lots of voters. and there have been lots of debates — of voters. and there have been lots of debates about issues, whether that is— of debates about issues, whether that is the — of debates about issues, whether that is the protocol or things like that is the protocol or things like that zero — that is the protocol or things like that zero. lots of people just want the government to focus on the cost of living~ _ the government to focus on the cost of living. and that could be damaging in on itself. also there is no obvious— damaging in on itself. also there is no obvious second at the minute. that— no obvious second at the minute. that is— no obvious second at the minute. that is what— no obvious second at the minute. that is what has helped boris johnson — that is what has helped boris johnson the moment particularly when rishi sunak— johnson the moment particularly when rishi sunak suffered a big fall in his popularity. lots of tory mps saying — his popularity. lots of tory mps saying yes, i don't think he was going _ saying yes, i don't think he was going to — saying yes, i don't think he was going to replace borisjohnson. yes a leadership contest could be very bruising~ — a leadership contest could be very bruising. they are starting to think that things — bruising. they are starting to think that things are so bad that maybe they should take a chance on that. i think— they should take a chance on that. i think at— they should take a chance on that. i think at the — they should take a chance on that. i think at the moment it is not yet a majority— think at the moment it is not yet a majority of— think at the moment it is not yet a majority of mps there is not yet a direction — majority of mps there is not yet a direction of travel things could start— direction of travel things could start to — direction of travel things could start to get much worse boris

johnson _ start to get much worse boris johnson. . ~' , ., start to get much worse boris johnson. ., ,, , ., , start to get much worse boris johnson. ., ,, i. , . start to get much worse boris johnson. ., ,, , ., , . ., johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason — johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason is — johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason is hair, _ johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason is hair, he _ johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason is hair, he is _ johnson. thank you very much, katie. chris mason is hair, he is our- chris mason is hair, he is our political editor. hello have you got a microphone on?— political editor. hello have you got a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check. a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check- why _ a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check. why are _ a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check. why are you _ a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check. why are you here? - a microphone on? yes, i have. i had to check. why are you here? this i a microphone on? yes, i have. i had| to check. why are you here? this has been coming — to check. why are you here? this has been coming for _ to check. why are you here? this has been coming for a _ to check. why are you here? this has been coming for a while. _ to check. why are you here? this has been coming for a while. there - to check. why are you here? this has been coming for a while. there is - to check. why are you here? this has been coming for a while. there is a i been coming for a while. there is a wheel— been coming for a while. there is a wheel in _ been coming for a while. there is a wheel in anger amongst many conservative mps. as was pushed this number— conservative mps. as was pushed this number along over the line. the view of the _ number along over the line. the view of the conservative rebels has illustrated that there is a sense that they— illustrated that there is a sense that they are not sure that they, nor a _ that they are not sure that they, nor a chunk— that they are not sure that they, nor a chunk of the electorate can trust _ nor a chunk of the electorate can trust the — nor a chunk of the electorate can trust the prime minister any more. it is so _ trust the prime minister any more. it is so simple as that it is a character— it is so simple as that it is a character question. and that is why it hasn't_ character question. and that is why it hasn't away. when we saw the first revelations around partygate and then — first revelations around partygate and then ukraine what happened. and it was— and then ukraine what happened. and it was a _ and then ukraine what happened. and it was a sense amongst conservative mps at _ it was a sense amongst conservative mps at the _ it was a sense amongst conservative mps at the time wasn't right to be seen _ mps at the time wasn't right to be seen to— mps at the time wasn't right to be seen to be — mps at the time wasn't right to be seen to be attempting to topple the

prime _ seen to be attempting to topple the prime minister. the sue gray report convinced _ prime minister. the sue gray report convinced enough. there was a consensus _ convinced enough. there was a consensus over the weekend before we saw the _ consensus over the weekend before we saw the announcement is simply wasn't _ saw the announcement is simply wasn't going to go away. if we hadn't — wasn't going to go away. if we hadn't seen what we saw from sue graham _ hadn't seen what we saw from sue graham this morning the speculation would _ graham this morning the speculation would continue. that would be damaging for the prime minister and so the _ damaging for the prime minister and so the point would arrive soon with that rather— so the point would arrive soon with that rather than later. i so the point would arrive soon with that rather than later.— that rather than later. i was on air with jane hill— that rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when _ that rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when there - that rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when there was - that rather than later. i was on air. with jane hill when there was some booing for the prime and so let's play a clip of that now. just briefly. do you think that will have had an impact, either minor or greater, on mps. simek yes i think this will be this was an audible illustration of what _ this was an audible illustration of what firstly what they've been

hearing — what firstly what they've been hearing from constituents, and secondly — hearing from constituents, and secondly what they say opinion polls have been showing for a while. i think— have been showing for a while. i think it — have been showing for a while. i think it what is striking today victoria, _ think it what is striking today victoria, the key thing to bring in mind, _ victoria, the key thing to bring in mind, when— victoria, the key thing to bring in mind, when we get the result tonight, — mind, when we get the result tonight, the widespread expectation is that— tonight, the widespread expectation is that the prime minister will win. the issue — is that the prime minister will win. the issue with confidence was is that leaders can win arithmetically and lose _ that leaders can win arithmetically and lose politically. one of the rin- and lose politically. one of the ring leaders trying to bring down theresa — ring leaders trying to bring down theresa may sits, of course, around boris _ theresa may sits, of course, around borisjohnson's top theresa may sits, of course, around boris johnson's top table. theresa may one _ boris johnson's top table. theresa may one with two thirds, and this was regarded as a crushing political defeat _ was regarded as a crushing political defeat. the numbers are one thing is, the _ defeat. the numbers are one thing is, the politics are another. the only— is, the politics are another. the only number that matters is the one that comes — only number that matters is the one that comes tonight. some are already suggesting that the numbers could hit three _ suggesting that the numbers could hit three figures to the number of conservative mps in opposition to boris _ conservative mps in opposition to

borisjohnson. there needs to be184 a borisjohnson. there needs to be 184 a majority— borisjohnson. there needs to be 184 a majority to borisjohnson. there needs to be184 a majority to topple boris johnson, there _ a majority to topple boris johnson, there is— a majority to topple boris johnson, there is some expectation it could hit three _ there is some expectation it could hit three figures. that will be a figure — hit three figures. that will be a figure that will hang around the prime _ figure that will hang around the prime minister's neck for as long as he remains — prime minister's neck for as long as he remains in office, because it will be — he remains in office, because it will be a — he remains in office, because it will be a definitive number of conservative mps that we know think he will _ conservative mps that we know think he will be _ conservative mps that we know think he will be better off gone. it is in an honest — he will be better off gone. it is in an honest must vote, so people who have been— an honest must vote, so people who have been very private can express that _ have been very private can express that. ., . , , ., , have been very private can express that. ., . , , .,, , that. how much self interest as this on the part — that. how much self interest as this on the part of— that. how much self interest as this on the part of conservative - that. how much self interest as this on the part of conservative mps. i that. how much self interest as this | on the part of conservative mps. are they looking at the next election and thinking, am i going to win my seat with borisjohnson as prime minister, orwould seat with borisjohnson as prime minister, or would i have more chance of winning it with someone else? . , chance of winning it with someone else? ., , , ., , chance of winning it with someone else? ., , , ., else? that is exactly what they are thinkini , else? that is exactly what they are thinking. so _ else? that is exactly what they are thinking, so the _ else? that is exactly what they are thinking, so the bottom _ else? that is exactly what they are thinking, so the bottom line - else? that is exactly what they are thinking, so the bottom line is, - thinking, so the bottom line is, that is— thinking, so the bottom line is, that is them thinking can i survive?

unless _ that is them thinking can i survive? unless they— that is them thinking can i survive? unless they act now, they may think the electrics will act later.— the electrics will act later. should be take, the electrics will act later. should be take. well— the electrics will act later. should be take, well i'm _ the electrics will act later. should be take, well i'm doing _ the electrics will act later. should be take, well i'm doing that - the electrics will act later. should be take, well i'm doing that for l the electrics will act later. should i be take, well i'm doing that for the good of the country, with a pinch of salt? , ., ., _, ., . ., salt? they are not in contradiction as they would _ salt? they are not in contradiction as they would see _ salt? they are not in contradiction as they would see it, _ salt? they are not in contradiction as they would see it, so _ salt? they are not in contradiction as they would see it, so yes - salt? they are not in contradiction as they would see it, so yes they l as they would see it, so yes they are absolutely of that year, they will look — are absolutely of that year, they will look at these by—elections as they come — will look at these by—elections as they come up in the next couple weeks. — they come up in the next couple weeks, massive conservative majority in the _ weeks, massive conservative majority in the devon— weeks, massive conservative majority in the devon seat, during this recess — in the devon seat, during this recess period they may think that might— recess period they may think that might be — recess period they may think that might be lost, and expeditions they might— might be lost, and expeditions they might lose wakefield back to the labour— might lose wakefield back to the labour party. borisjohnson's big sell to— labour party. borisjohnson's big sell to his — labour party. borisjohnson's big sell to his party has always been transactional, his argument has always— transactional, his argument has always been, love me or loathe me, i win. always been, love me or loathe me, i win that— always been, love me or loathe me, i win that was — always been, love me or loathe me, i win. that was the deal he made with the conservative party prior to the last general election and he was

proven right. the concern for conservative mps is that that is no longer— conservative mps is that that is no longer the — conservative mps is that that is no longer the case. the conservative mps is that that is no longer the case.— conservative mps is that that is no longer the case. the prime minister will talk to his — longer the case. the prime minister will talk to his own _ longer the case. the prime minister will talk to his own backbench - longer the case. the prime minister will talk to his own backbench mpsl will talk to his own backbench mps at four o'clock, so it is the last chance to convince npc is the right leave the country. are his aides, are his chief of staff ringing mps that are unlikely to support the prime minister to try to persuade them, offerthemjobs, offerthe knighthoods, how does it work? there is an industrial— knighthoods, how does it work? there is an industrial amount _ knighthoods, how does it work? there is an industrial amount of _ is an industrial amount of persuasion, on phones, on whatsapp, on random _ persuasion, on phones, on whatsapp, on random accounts in the street. a couple _ on random accounts in the street. a couple of— on random accounts in the street. a couple of hours later the vote will open _ couple of hours later the vote will open and — couple of hours later the vote will open and close at 8pm, in the prime minister's _ open and close at 8pm, in the prime minister's perspective it is about getting _ minister's perspective it is about getting the number as low as possible. he will say never mind 54

letters, _ possible. he will say never mind 54 letters, or— possible. he will say never mind 54 letters, or however many people will vote against me tonight, 13.9 million — vote against me tonight, 13.9 million people voted conservative with him — million people voted conservative with him as the figurehead just a couple _ with him as the figurehead just a couple of— with him as the figurehead just a couple of years ago, securing that biggest _ couple of years ago, securing that biggest majority the party has had pretty— biggest majority the party has had pretty much in a generation after successive — pretty much in a generation after successive defeats and limb victories, he delivered a decisive victory~ — victories, he delivered a decisive victory~ he — victories, he delivered a decisive victory. he will argue that his mandate _ victory. he will argue that his mandate is with the british people, you should — mandate is with the british people, you should not be replacing me with someone _ you should not be replacing me with someone who does not have that mandate — someone who does not have that mandate. mps would whittle the number — mandate. mps would whittle the number down to candidates, those candidates would have a smaller chunk— candidates would have a smaller chunk of— candidates would have a smaller chunk of the british electorate, he would _ chunk of the british electorate, he would select on behalf of us all the next row— would select on behalf of us all the next row minister. you can be absolutely _ next row minister. you can be absolutely certain that boris johnson _ absolutely certain that boris johnson will be making the argument, what is _ johnson will be making the argument, what is democratic about that? the mandate _ what is democratic about that? the mandate is — what is democratic about that? the mandate is with the people.

roger gale is a conservative mp, he gave six names of potential replacements. dominic rab was mentioned, i don't think he mentioned, i don't think he mentioned rishi sunak the chancellor, forgive me if i misquoted him, what do you think? those names frequently crop up, he's had a _ those names frequently crop up, he's had a tough _ those names frequently crop up, he's had a tough couple of months, rishi sunak. _ had a tough couple of months, rishi sunak. so— had a tough couple of months, rishi sunak, so you get all of that speculation, but i think what is striking — speculation, but i think what is striking and perhaps comforting to number— striking and perhaps comforting to number ten striking and perhaps comforting to numberten this striking and perhaps comforting to number ten this weekend is that there _ number ten this weekend is that there is— number ten this weekend is that there is not a clear—cut name being mentioned — there is not a clear—cut name being mentioned. those who would like to see the _ mentioned. those who would like to see the back of the prime minister can agree — see the back of the prime minister can agree on that. they don't agree a much _ can agree on that. they don't agree a much else — can agree on that. they don't agree a much else. they come from all

ranks _ a much else. they come from all ranks of— a much else. they come from all ranks of the _ a much else. they come from all ranks of the party, again to an extent— ranks of the party, again to an extent that is dangerous for the prime _ extent that is dangerous for the prime minister, because he can't easily— prime minister, because he can't easily persuade them with a single thing. _ easily persuade them with a single thing. but — easily persuade them with a single thing, but it means that they are notjoined — thing, but it means that they are notjoined up on who thing, but it means that they are not joined up on who they want next, and that— not joined up on who they want next, and that is— not joined up on who they want next, and that is absolutely what we are hearing _ and that is absolutely what we are hearing from those around the prime minister— hearing from those around the prime minister is _ hearing from those around the prime minister is an argument for saying, leave _ minister is an argument for saying, leave him _ minister is an argument for saying, leave him in— minister is an argument for saying, leave him in place, they are saying, so you're _ leave him in place, they are saying, so you're wanting to get rid of me, you're _ so you're wanting to get rid of me, you're contemplating to get rid of me, you're contemplating to get rid of me. but— you're contemplating to get rid of me, but you have absolutely no idea who you _ me, but you have absolutely no idea who you want to back next, you're in complete disagreement about that, oh and by— complete disagreement about that, oh and by the _ complete disagreement about that, oh and by the way there will be a huge public— and by the way there will be a huge public bonfire about running the country. — public bonfire about running the country, the prime minister tried to deal with— country, the prime minister tried to deal with the cost of living crunch. that will— deal with the cost of living crunch. that will be — deal with the cost of living crunch. that will be the argument that comes back from _ that will be the argument that comes back from downing street. amid all this noise _ back from downing street. amid all this noise we should absolutely put some _ this noise we should absolutely put some weight on the fact that that argument — some weight on the fact that that argument will be persuasive to hundreds— argument will be persuasive to hundreds of conservative mps. the key thing _ hundreds of conservative mps. the key thing with today is not to listen — key thing with today is not to listenjust to the key thing with today is not to listen just to the noisy people. it is the _ listen just to the noisy people. it is the noisy people who hurtle

towards — is the noisy people who hurtle towards our cameras. i�*ve is the noisy people who hurtle towards our cameras. i've been riniiin , towards our cameras. i've been ringing. no _ towards our cameras. i've been ringing. no one _ towards our cameras. i've been ringing, no one has— towards our cameras. i've been ringing, no one has been - towards our cameras. i've been - ringing, no one has been answering! there will be hundreds who will be holding _ there will be hundreds who will be holding their peace and thinking very carefully about what they did. thank _ very carefully about what they did. thank you — very carefully about what they did. thank you to our political editor, i've just tweeted saying what do you think about the fact there will be a vote of no confidence tonight, and i will read some of your responses on air tonight. we heard earlier today from conservative mpjesse norman who released an open letter this morning, who released an open letter explaining why he was no longer supporting mrjohnson. over the last few days the publication of the sue gray report and the _ publication of the sue gray report and the queen's speech says, why i'm

re sorry— and the queen's speech says, why i'm re sorry to— and the queen's speech says, why i'm re sorry to say, why the prime minister— re sorry to say, why the prime minister must step down, because we have a _ minister must step down, because we have a clear— minister must step down, because we have a clear picture of a much wider set of— have a clear picture of a much wider set of concerns, and they are not 'ust set of concerns, and they are not just about — set of concerns, and they are not just about partygate, although that is a concern, they are also about core _ is a concern, they are also about core policy— is a concern, they are also about core policy issues, including rwanda, _ core policy issues, including rwanda, and article 16, the political— rwanda, and article 16, the political breach of the northern ireland — political breach of the northern ireland protocol, which i think would — ireland protocol, which i think would be _ ireland protocol, which i think would be illegal. you've also got a deep _ would be illegal. you've also got a deep concern about the way in which policy— deep concern about the way in which policy is _ deep concern about the way in which policy is being conducted, which is to create _ policy is being conducted, which is to create dividing lines and culture war and _ to create dividing lines and culture war and political disagreement, just at the _ war and political disagreement, just at the time — war and political disagreement, just at the time in which we need unified. _ at the time in which we need unified, energetic, positive leadership. of course you also have the constitutional question, which is this— the constitutional question, which is this gradual centralisation of power—

is this gradual centralisation of power in — is this gradual centralisation of power in numberten, is this gradual centralisation of power in number ten, and is this gradual centralisation of power in numberten, and no is this gradual centralisation of power in number ten, and no one who understands— power in number ten, and no one who understands our constitution could think— understands our constitution could think that — understands our constitution could think that is a good idea. prime minister— think that is a good idea. prime minister is _ think that is a good idea. prime minister is not a president, boris johnson — minister is not a president, boris johnson is — minister is not a president, boris johnson is not a president, and it would _ johnson is not a president, and it would be — johnson is not a president, and it would be a — johnson is not a president, and it would be a very serious mistake to consider— would be a very serious mistake to consider him as such or treat him as such _ consider him as such or treat him as such ._ consider him as such or treat him as such. ,., ., , ., ., , ., such. , so that is one conservative mp who will _ such. , so that is one conservative mp who will not _ such. , so that is one conservative mp who will not be _ such. , so that is one conservative mp who will not be supporting - mp who will not be supporting tonight, let's hearfrom somebody who does support him, here is the press secretary, sajid javid. i think that he will deliver for this country, and i think he would go on to win a general election with an ambitious programme for continuous improvements — whether it's to our health service, it's to housing, it's to help with the cost of living challenges. and he's getting on with the job right now. my understanding, i think he's even got a call later this morning with president zelensky, because we've got war in europe, and we've responded strongly to that, very strongly, because of the prime minister and his understanding of the importance of this. so it's all about delivery,

that's what i'm focused on, that's why i'm at this hospital today, and that's what the british people want to see. sajid javid per health secretary, more from college green. do let me know what you think of the fact that there is a no confidence vote tonight in the prime minister, that will be at 6pm uk time, the prime minister will address his own backbench mps, that will be his last opportunity to persuade enough of him to vote for him. the key number is 180 mps, we should get the result before 9pm uk time. do let me know what you think of the fact that there is no confidence vote. we have some work to date's news. britain has announced

it's to send long— range mobile rocket launchers to ukraine, along with ammunition. the announcement follows last week's decision by washington to supply kyiv with four similar rocket launcher vehicles. in an interview on sunday, president putin warned against such moves: translation: if long range weapons are iioin to translation: if long range weapons are going to be _ translation: if long range weapons are going to be supplied _ translation: if long range weapons are going to be supplied we _ translation: if long range weapons are going to be supplied we will - are going to be supplied we will make certain conclusions which we will use to make strikes at certain targets. our correspondent in ukraine, joe inwood, has been explaining what he beleives the russian president is referring to. well, there's two things, i think, to unpack here — firstly, which systems is he talking about, because remember, there was discussion initially about the americans sending really long—range missile batteries, things that could travel up to 300 kilometers. they, in the end, probably in order to avoid escalating things too much, are opting for something with a range of about 80 kilometers, 50 miles, similar to what the british are announcing today. so it is worth bearing in mind that it could be that president putin was referring to the more long—range systems. but the next question, what would he be proposing?

well, of course, it's impossible to be certain what's in the mind of the man in the kremlin, but some discussion has centred around the idea that there could be governmental targets that could be hit. of course, in many ways, it seems odd to think that there could be further escalation in this conflict, considering a full—scale invasion of the capital was attempted. but the russians haven't targeted military ministries here. they haven't targeted governmental buildings in particular, and they basically have stuck, in terms of their use of long range missiles, they've stuck to targets which you would describe as strategic rather than symbolic. and there would be a concern maybe that he might move towards targeting things that are of symbolic value to the ukrainians rather than of strategic importance. you've got two cities here of which are within miles of each other, and both are very very much in the range of russian artillery. it was lysychansk that president zelensky visited, so the place that he was going really is on the front lines, it is very much in range of russian artillery, and the fact that he

thought it was safe for him to do so, and this would have happened under great secrecy, make no mistake, but it properly shows how the war is going on that part of the country. the ukrainians of been on the counteroffensive in severodonetsk severodonetsk and the fact that they are doing that probably means that ukrainians think that lysychansk is safe, but really it was extraordinary, i was very surprised when i heard that this morning. last year's glasgow climate conference set ambitious targets for countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels like coal. six months on, what progress have the big emitters made? how has russia's invasion of ukraine forced governments to rethink their energy priorities? questions that will be asked at a big un climate change conference starting in bonn today. we'll have a special day of coverage from there. but first this report from our environment correspondentjustin rowlatt.

we've seen more blistering temperatures this year. it hit 51 celsius in pakistan last month, 49.2 degrees for delhi, the highest temperature the indian capital ever recorded. and that's not the only climate record that's been broken this year. c02 levels in the atmosphere continue their seemingly unstoppable rise to reach a height ofjust over 420 ppm in april this year. countries promised to take action to curb emissions at last year's big un climate conference in glasgow. there are no objections, it is so decided. but the world has changed since then. when russia invaded ukraine, fuel prices went through the roof, and many governments appeared to put tackling climate change on hold. at the conference in glasgow, countries agreed for the first time to phase down coal,

the dirtiest of fossil fuels. while they are doing it, there are still more than 6,500 coal—fired electricity units operating across the world. the bad news is 34 countries are still planning to build more new coal plants. the most aggressive? that's china. but china is also making huge investments in renewables. the hope is coal is just an insurance policy, an emergency energy source to protect against blackouts. what about the promises of money to help the developing world? the developed world said that by 2020 it would give $100 billion a year to help developing countries fund the low—carbon transition. but it still hadn't come up with the money at the glasgow conference last year. and what is happening in the us could make finding the cash even more difficult.

president biden is struggling to get his climate plan passed by congress. if he fails, he's unlikely to have the money he needs for his low carbon ambitions. key to the un climate process is countries coming back every year to strengthen and revise their climate pledges. will they be willing to up their game on climate, given the other pressures they face? some countries, including india, haven't even confirmed the pledges they made in glasgow. there has been more extreme weather in the last few weeks, floods in brazil, one side is in mexico. it is hard to know whether there will be progress in the climate change conference next year. here is the good news, it is still talking about climate.

a shortage of nurses is posing a risk to patient safety — and causing even more to leave the profession. that's according to the royal college of nursing, which says that only a quarter of shifts had the planned number of registered nurses on duty. the government says it's recruiting thousands more nurses and that action is being taken to tackle the covid backlog. transport for london is advising against travel on the underground today, as thousands of staff go on strike. large parts of the network will be closed as members of the rmt union take the action in a row overjobs and pensions. the disruption is expected to continue until tomorrow morning. the queen has said she is "humbled and deeply touched" by the response to her platinum jubilee, following four days of celebrations to mark her 70—years on the throne. in a written statement, she said she'd been inspired by the "kindness, joy and kinship" on display during the extended weekend. our royal correspondent daniela

relph takes a look back at an unprecedented national party. she was the star of the show, and it was her grand finale. the queen began the celebrations on the balcony here, and this is where they entered after a weekend of pomp, party, and pageantry. the last day of celebrations brought a sense of carnival to central london. a quirky trip through the seven decades of the queen's rain. in the royal box, grandad charles was put in temporary charge of a lively prince louis. as the party ended, the queen issued a message of thanks saying...

i think it is what we want to see, long live the queen, let it continue. long live the queen, let it continue-— long live the queen, let it continue. ~ �* , , ., continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know _ continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know we _ continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know we would _ continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know we would be - continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know we would be able . continue. wasn't she beautiful, i didn't know we would be able to| continue. wasn't she beautiful, i - didn't know we would be able to see her, didn't know we would be able to see her. it— didn't know we would be able to see her. it was— didn't know we would be able to see her, it was so nice to hear the national— her, it was so nice to hear the national anthem, her, it was so nice to hear the nationalanthem, have her, it was so nice to hear the national anthem, have all of us sing it, it national anthem, have all of us sing it. it was _ national anthem, have all of us sing it. it was a — national anthem, have all of us sing it, it was a bit emotional really. extremely— it, it was a bit emotional really. extremely emotionally overwhelming, butjust_ extremely emotionally overwhelming, butjust wonderful. _ extremely emotionally overwhelming, but just wonderful.— but just wonderful. fantastic crowd, fantastic people, _ but just wonderful. fantastic crowd, fantastic people, and _ but just wonderful. fantastic crowd, fantastic people, and to _ but just wonderful. fantastic crowd, fantastic people, and to see - but just wonderful. fantastic crowd, fantastic people, and to see the - fantastic people, and to see the queen was the most important thing. life memories made for some. a chance to see those who are back in the royal fold. chance to see those who are back in the royalfold. the celebrations were for the queen, but without her presence at some events. as the family stepped in, thejubilee has been a reminder of the frailty of the monarch, and how future public appearances will be carefully

managed. the weekend, though, has solved one mystery. we now know what the queen keeps in her trusted hand back. . , , the queen keeps in her trusted hand back. . ,, the queen keeps in her trusted hand back. ., , , , ., ., “ the queen keeps in her trusted hand back. ., , , , ., ., ~ ., back. perhaps you would like a marmalade — back. perhaps you would like a marmalade sandwich? - back. perhaps you would like a marmalade sandwich? i - back. perhaps you would like aj marmalade sandwich? i always back. perhaps you would like a - marmalade sandwich? i always keep one for emergencies. so marmalade sandwich? i always keep one for emergencies.— marmalade sandwich? i always keep one for emergencies. so do i, i keep mine in here- _ one for emergencies. so do i, i keep mine in here. for— one for emergencies. so do i, i keep mine in here. for later. _ one for emergencies. so do i, i keep mine in here. for later. the - one for emergencies. so do i, i keep mine in here. for later. the stage i mine in here. for later. the stage around buckingham _ mine in here. for later. the stage around buckingham palace - mine in here. for later. the stage around buckingham palace is- mine in here. for later. the stage around buckingham palace is nowj around buckingham palace is now being pulled down, as part of london returns to normal. it has been a jubilee filled with reflection, but it is ended looking firmly to the future. the final family get—together, a look at the future shape of the monarchy, a son, grandson, and a great three future

kings. as onejubilee tribute put it, with one current queen still in the saddle. for the first time since 1958, wales have qualified for the world cup, after they beat ukraine 1—0 in a dramatic play off final in cardiff. they'll be in the same group as england, the usa and iran in the finals which are being hosted in qatar from the end of november. hywel griffith reports. being a football supporter is about savouring success and learning to deal with defeat. add solidarity with the ukrainian opposition, and cardiff was a heady mix of emotions. but only one team could claim a place in qatar. the first minute brought a flurry. ukraine put the ball in the back of the net. but the referee wasn't happy. the nerves didn't settle. wayne hennessey was kept busy. but, then, up stepped wales' captain. gareth bale delivering

with a deflection. and sending hopes skywards. ukraine were unbowed, unrelenting and unable to get past wayne hennessey. brennanjohnson could have made it more comfortable. so could gareth bale. but that would have been too easy. instead, wales had to put their bodies on the line and keep their hands on the lead that sends them to their first world cup in 64 years. wales are going to the world cup! it is just an unbelievable occasion, as well, isn't it? the reward is at the end to celebrate that with supporters. things like this will stay with you for ever. this is the best moment of my footballing career, without doubt. if you had asked me, i when i was a young kid, to do what i've done in my career and, finally, now, the final- piece in the jigsaw, i to play in a world cup. i probably would have taken 10% of it, to be honest. _ but to do what we've done for this nation, | put them on the world stage, the world map. _

they deserve everything, these fans. and that's what we try to do for them. | for ukraine, it was a step too far after such a difficultjourney. i feel a bit like the weather — not what we came for, but well done, wales. but the team has done ukraine proud? they have. they have put a smile on our faces, at least for a little bit. but for these fans, the next step is finding a flight to doha. it has lifted the entire welsh nation and we are delighted. are you booking your flights to qatar, now? yes, we certainly are. all the way to the world cup? all the way. after 15 successive world cups watching at home, wales are finally through to qatar after winning their place on the biggest stage in world football. cheering.

a reminder of our main news this hour: borisjohnson is facing a vote of no confidence by tory mps amid anger across the party at the disclosures over lockdown parties in downing street. sir graham brady — chairman of the backbench1922 committee — has confirmed that he's now received the 54 letters from conservative mps needed to trigger a vote. jeremy hunt has just tweeted in the past few minutes that the conservative party must decide whether to change its leader. the vote — by secret ballot — will take place at westminster between 6 and 8pm, with the count to take place immediately afterwards. we'll have a lot more on that later

from westminster, but for me by. the weather this week is very mixed, temperature is about average, it's going to be windy as we head towards the week, but today at low pressures in the north sea, we have a front in the south, but we are looking at some quieter conditions. we still have some rain moving towards the north of england, that clears off towards the nazi us a few showers brighter skies coming in from the north—west, they are travelling eastwards in northern ireland we will see some brighter skies, that the sunniest conditions today will be in scotland. the rain coming in from the channel islands this

afternoon will move across southern england overnight, the weatherfront round it will bring in thicker cloud across south—east scotland and north—east england. some clear skies again and temperatures between seven and 14 degrees. some timepieces to the south—east and clears, the cloud drifts a bit further west, and for the rest of us there will be sunny spells and that will trigger some showers. a new weather comes in across the south—west of england bring into more persistent rain. moving from tuesday into wednesday, here is that when the front bringing the persistent rain, and you can see how travels quite quickly northwards and eastwards during the course of wednesday itself. it will continue to bring this rain moving into northern england and scotland, behind it some showers, lighter winds in the north, some rain and we

are looking at temperatures between 11 and 20 degrees. we have a ridge of high pressure trying to build across us, for many it is going to be a quiet day with variable amounts of cloud, and by the end of the day the wind will be strengthening towards the north—west and we will see some rain arriving as well stop temperatures between 12 and 21 degrees. this deep area of low pressure contains the remnants of tropical storm, the rain won't give us much a problem, but it is going be windy.

play a clip of that now. just briefly.

this is bbc news i'mjoanna gosling. the headlines at 11 the prime minister will face a vote of confidence in his leadership this evening. it means at least 15% of the parliamentary party — former foreign secretaryjeremy hunt who had previously stood against borisjohnson for the conservative party leadership, has said he'll

vote against the pm. but at least 180 conservative mps — a majority — will have to vote against the prime minister, if he's to leave office. several cabinet ministers have said they'll stand behind him. i think the focus now has to be, not on the chaos of the divisive or destructive leadership contest. back to back the pm today, that is what i am certainly doing and i am encouraging my colleagues to do so. jamie can't hear. borisjohnson says he "welcomes the opportunity to make his case to mps" we will bring you the result at 9pm this evening.

good morning. the prime minister is to address his mps in private in parliament this afternoon, ahead of a confidence vote on his leadership of the conservative party. it was confirmed this morning that the vote was triggered after at least 54 mps wrote to sir graham brady, who chairs the backbench1922 committee, saying they no longer have confidence in mrjohnson. that vote will take place between six and eight this evening: only conservative mps will take part. there'll be a count straightaway, with the result expected shortly afterwards. some conservative mps began to turn against borisjohnson after revelations about gatherings held during covid lockdowns — and the numbers gathered pace after sue gray's report into that partygate scandal. first let's hear sir graham brady's announcement this morning. the threshold of 15%

of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the prime minister has been passed. therefore, a vote of confidence will take place within the rules of the 1922 committee. that vote will take place this evening in the house of commons between six and eight o'clock, and we will announce the result shortly thereafter. there will be arrangements for proxy votes for any colleagues who can't be present in person in westminster, and we'll notify colleagues of those arrangements in the near future. did you communicate the news directly to the prime minister? j how did he react? i'm not going to go into details, but i have followed the rules that we have in place. i notified the prime minister yesterday that the threshold had been reached, and we agreed the timetable for a confidence vote to take place. and he shared my view, which is also in line with the rules that we have in place, that vote should happen as soon as could reasonably take place, and that would be today. how many letters have you received? i don't divulge that, but the threshold of

15% has been passed. and when was the threshold passed? it's slightly complicated because some colleagues had asked specifically that it should not be until the end of the jubilee celebrations. so did some of them post—date their letters so as not - to interrupt the jubilee? i think that's not a bad description of what was taking place. and that's when the - threshold was breached? therefore, we reach the point where i could communicate with the prime minister yesterday, which i did — and as i said, he agreed with me that we should conduct the vote as quickly as we reasonably can. will the prime minister have - a chance to address the committee? it's always an open invitation to the prime minister to come and speak to the committee. so if he wishes to, we will arrange that meeting this afternoon. have you put one in yourself, a letter? i i'm not going to answer that question, but i think technically

it would be possible, but it would be a slightly odd thing to do. are you surprised at the speed - with which number ten is moving? you've seen a few of these come and go, these events. _ i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules say it should be done as soon as is reasonable in the circumstances. when we held a vote on theresa may's position in december 2018, we spoke the evening before, and we held a vote the next day. so i suppose it's in line with recent precedent, and i think it's good for everybody to get these things out of the way as quickly and efficiently as possible. we're holding a vote of confidence, and it will take place today, and you will have a result this evening. is there a feeling that he could... well, a confidence vote, obviously, will provide a clear answer. the party will have confidence

in the leadership or not have confidence in the leadership. that's the question that will be before my colleagues today for another year. technically it's possible for rules to be changed, but the rule at present is that there would be a year of a period of grace. we can cross live now to my colleague victoria derbyshire in westminster. thank you very much. there are a number of conservatives mps who are wondering on the collard greens who we are obviously going to talk to throughout the morning on bbc news and bbc world viewers who have just joined, welcome to you. there has been a dramatic development this morning in uk politics for viewers around the world. the prime minister, borisjohnson is to face a vote of confidence by his own mps this evening. our correspondent damian mattock is here. while we

are. ~ , ., ., damian mattock is here. while we are. , ., ., ., damian mattock is here. while we are. , ., ., , are. we should go straight to jeremy hunt. so former _ are. we should go straight to jeremy hunt. so former cabinet _ are. we should go straight to jeremy hunt. so former cabinet minister- hunt. so former cabinet minister obviously, been a critic of boris johnson. he has now come out and made it very clear that he will be voting for change. so not voting for borisjohnson voting for change. so not voting for boris johnson today. voting for change. so not voting for borisjohnson today. is that essentially the start again that jeremy hunt to be the next leader of the conservative party. he has been talked about widely as a possible person he would be interested. someone who would want to put their name forward. we see that now. the conservative party, because of the situation in ukraine this was not a debate i wanted to have. so we must do that now. conservatives must know we are not giving british people the leader leaderships they deserve. we are not trusted by the electorate, we are set to lose the next general

election. because of that he basically says today's decision is change or lose. i will be voting for change. he doesn't put himself forward on that but i think you can read into that. he may well too. he will do. what about support from the prime ministerfrom his will do. what about support from the prime minister from his top team? yes, understandably as you can imagine they have been coming out publicly. public met ministers all saying that you're tweeting their support. we can go through a few of those. we have first of all, rishi sunak he was one of the first two came out. he had also been talked over as a possible successor to borisjohnson. he is saying, very clearly as chancellor.

the foreign secretary liz truss says. that is really reiterating the messages that downing street has been putting out that there has been a briefing note circulating about talking points for supporting the prime minister and in all of those they point to exactly the same things. they talk about, the things that they say boris johnson should be credited with. so, vaccine, covid, ukraine. talk about wanting to get on with new priorities to move on from all of this. boris johnson has apologised, so liz truss

is also talked about as someone else who would definitely want to put herself forward. she as senior cabinet minister is backing the prime minister at this stage. but the crucial votes will be this this evening. the crucial votes will be this this evenini. , ., ., ., evening. lets hear from our olitical evening. lets hear from our political editor _ evening. lets hear from our political editor here - evening. lets hear from our political editor here is - evening. lets hear from our political editor here is chris | political editor here is chris mason. , ., ., mason. this has been coming for a while there — mason. this has been coming for a while there is _ mason. this has been coming for a while there is a _ mason. this has been coming for a while there is a real _ mason. this has been coming for a while there is a real anger- mason. this has been coming for a | while there is a real anger amongst conservative mps. but it tapped into other thoughts as well that— but it tapped into other thoughts as well that party that is a sense that they are _ well that party that is a sense that they are not sure. the day nor a chunk— they are not sure. the day nor a chunk of— they are not sure. the day nor a chunk of the _ they are not sure. the day nor a chunk of the electric trust the prime — chunk of the electric trust the prime minister any more. it is a character— prime minister any more. it is a character question and that white is why it _ character question and that white is why it hasn't gone away. in january when _ why it hasn't gone away. in january when we _ why it hasn't gone away. in january when we saw the first revelations around _ when we saw the first revelations around partygate, and then the ukraine — around partygate, and then the ukraine what happened. and there is a sense _ ukraine what happened. and there is a sense amongst conservative mps at the time — a sense amongst conservative mps at the time wasn't right to be seen to

be attempting the minister. the sue gray report— be attempting the minister. the sue gray report convinced enough conservative mps that this has had to be _ conservative mps that this has had to he arrived at. there was a consensus _ to he arrived at. there was a consensus over the weekend that this simply— consensus over the weekend that this simply wasn't going to go away. but if we hadn't — simply wasn't going to go away. but if we hadn't seen what we saw from sir graham — if we hadn't seen what we saw from sir graham this morning the speculation would be continuing so that would be damaging for the prime minister— that would be damaging for the prime minister and that would be damaging for the prime ministerand we that would be damaging for the prime minister and we would be arriving sooner— minister and we would be arriving sooner rather than later. i minister and we would be arriving sooner rather than later.- sooner rather than later. i was on air with jane _ sooner rather than later. i was on air with jane hill _ sooner rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when _ sooner rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when there - sooner rather than later. i was on air with jane hill when there was | air with jane hill when there was booing for the by minister let's play a clip of that now, just briefly. do you think that will have had an impact, whether minor or greater on conservative mps overjubilee conservative mps over jubilee weekend? conservative mps overjubilee weekend?— conservative mps overjubilee weekend? , , ., ., weekend? yes people are volunteering at me when i — weekend? yes people are volunteering at me when i speaking _ weekend? yes people are volunteering at me when i speaking to _ weekend? yes people are volunteering at me when i speaking to them - weekend? yes people are volunteering at me when i speaking to them over. at me when i speaking to them over the weekend. granted people who were already— the weekend. granted people who were already over the view that the prime minister— already over the view that the prime minister was already damaged good but for—

minister was already damaged good but for them it was an audible demonstration of what opinion polls have been— demonstration of what opinion polls have been showing for quite awhile. ithink— have been showing for quite awhile. i think what— have been showing for quite awhile. i think what will be really striking today— i think what will be really striking today the — i think what will be really striking today the key hint to bear in mind is the _ today the key hint to bear in mind is the numberwhen today the key hint to bear in mind is the number when we get the result tonight, _ is the number when we get the result tonight, probably around nine o'clock— tonight, probably around nine o'clock may be a few minutes before this evening. the widespread expectation is that the prime minister— expectation is that the prime minister will win. the issue with confidence — minister will win. the issue with confidence votes is that leaders can win arithmetically lose politically. jacob _ win arithmetically lose politically. jacob rees—mogg was one of the bring leaders _ jacob rees—mogg was one of the bring leaders trying to bring lamb theresa may sits— leaders trying to bring lamb theresa may sits now around boris johnson's top table _ may sits now around boris johnson's top table. regarding theresa may is a crushing _ top table. regarding theresa may is a crushing to political defeat. then she was— a crushing to political defeat. then she was gone within six months. the numbers— she was gone within six months. the numbers are — she was gone within six months. the numbers are one thing the politics is another~ — numbers are one thing the politics is another. there will be lots of speculation today the only number that matters is the one that comes the night — that matters is the one that comes the night. some of them are already suggesting that the number could sit hit three _ suggesting that the number could sit hit three figures in terms of the number— hit three figures in terms of the number of— hit three figures in terms of the number of conservative mps in

opposition to boris johnson. number of conservative mps in opposition to borisjohnson. there needs— opposition to borisjohnson. there needs to _ opposition to borisjohnson. there needs to be180 opposition to borisjohnson. there needs to be 180 four majority to topple _ needs to be 180 four majority to topple borisjohnson needs to be 180 four majority to topple boris johnson there needs to be 180 four majority to topple borisjohnson there is some expectation it could hit three figures _ expectation it could hit three figures. and that will be a figure that will— figures. and that will be a figure that will hang around the prime minister's — that will hang around the prime minister's neck for as long as he remains — minister's neck for as long as he remains in — minister's neck for as long as he remains in office. because it will be a _ remains in office. because it will be a definitive number of conservative mps that we know that think hell— conservative mps that we know that think he'll be better off gone. and it will— think he'll be better off gone. and it will be _ think he'll be better off gone. and it will be an anonymous vote. so for people _ it will be an anonymous vote. so for people who — it will be an anonymous vote. so for people who might have been very very private _ people who might have been very very private about their feelings up until— private about their feelings up until now. can express that privately— until now. can express that privately but it still counts, it still — privately but it still counts, it still registers as a number. how much self— still registers as a number. how much self interest _ still registers as a number. how much self interest is _ still registers as a number. how much self interest is there on the part of conservative mps, are they looking at the next election and saying am i going to win my seat with borisjohnson in prime minister or would i have more chance of winning it with someone else? that is exactly what _ winning it with someone else? that is exactly what they are thinking said what— is exactly what they are thinking said what they are thinking is can i hold my— said what they are thinking is can i hold my seat at the next election? and that _ hold my seat at the next election? and that is — hold my seat at the next election? and that is democracy in action, that is— and that is democracy in action, that is them thinking, can i

survive? _ that is them thinking, can i survive? and certainly that unless they act _ survive? and certainly that unless they act now there'll electorate will act — they act now there'll electorate will act later and take them out. when _ will act later and take them out. when they come in the airways today and say i'm doing it for the good of the country, should they take that with a pinch of salt? yes the country, should they take that with a pinch of salt?— with a pinch of salt? yes the two thins with a pinch of salt? yes the two things could _ with a pinch of salt? yes the two things could be _ with a pinch of salt? yes the two things could be in _ with a pinch of salt? yes the two things could be in contradiction, | things could be in contradiction, they answer you have that view, they look ahead _ they answer you have that view, they look ahead to these two by—elections are coming _ look ahead to these two by—elections are coming up in a couple of weeks one in— are coming up in a couple of weeks one inwest— are coming up in a couple of weeks one in west yorkshire and one in devon _ one in west yorkshire and one in devon. massive conservative majority in that— devon. massive conservative majority in that devon seat and plenty of conservative mps that have been there. _ conservative mps that have been there, thinking that could be lost to the _ there, thinking that could be lost to the liberal democrats. the expectation is that they will lose wakefield back to the labour party. boris _ wakefield back to the labour party. borisjohnson's big sell to his party— borisjohnson's big sell to his party has _ borisjohnson's big sell to his party has a ways been transactional. his argument has always been love me or loathe _ his argument has always been love me or loathe me, iwent. when the evidence — or loathe me, iwent. when the evidence up to now has broadly been that has— evidence up to now has broadly been that has been true. that is the deal he made _ that has been true. that is the deal he made with the conservative party

prior to _ he made with the conservative party prior to the — he made with the conservative party prior to the last general election and it— prior to the last general election and it was— prior to the last general election and it was proven right. the conservative mps view is that that is no _ conservative mps view is that that is no longer the case.— conservative mps view is that that is no longer the case. thank you, as we can imagine _ is no longer the case. thank you, as we can imagine we _ is no longer the case. thank you, as we can imagine we are _ is no longer the case. thank you, as we can imagine we are getting all i we can imagine we are getting all sorts of tweets. from all sorts of people including conservative mps to the reaction that there is an no—confidence vote tonight. we are going to talk to the writer of the conservative paper. first of all your reaction that there is a vote tonight? i your reaction that there is a vote toni . ht? ~ , your reaction that there is a vote toniiht? ~ , ., ., ., tonight? i think it is not at all what boris — tonight? i think it is not at all what boris johnson _ tonight? i think it is not at all what boris johnson we - tonight? i think it is not at all what boris johnson we open i tonight? i think it is not at all- what boris johnson we open wanting what borisjohnson we open wanting at all. pressure has been building over the weekends, mps hearing from constituents, we saw borisjohnson getting booed on friday which would have had a big psychological impact. i think that has been building up for quite a few days now. but it is bad news to borisjohnson even if he manages to win the vote tonight. just explain why it is bad news even if he wins the vote?—

if he wins the vote? because i think most analysts _ if he wins the vote? because i think most analysts are _ if he wins the vote? because i think most analysts are expecting - if he wins the vote? because i think most analysts are expecting him i if he wins the vote? because i think most analysts are expecting him to | most analysts are expecting him to win tonight but even if you when it really weakens your leadership, we saw it theresa may she managed to win have confidence vote quite comfortably when she was by minister, she managed to attract support from two thirds of mps yet two months later she was gone. sol think it contributes to this general sense that borisjohnson is leadership is under fire. sense that boris johnson is leadership is under fire. what does this mean for— leadership is under fire. what does this mean for opposition _ leadership is under fire. what does this mean for opposition parties, i this mean for opposition parties, the liberal democrats who are hoping to win the by—election in devon, what does it mean for labour? l what does it mean for labour? i think it is a win—win situation for the opposition parties. i think it is a lot in labour who would like boris to be heading up the party at the election because his numbers are so bad. but the timing of this if you just alluded to there. it is really bad for the conservative party, they want to be focused on

winning these two by—elections which present the different issues. they are very vulnerable to the liberal democrats and some seats. and they are vulnerable to labour in seats, in some parts of the norm. so these two by—elections they really need to be focused on them. they are very much at risk. lots of people think the lib dems will easily take the sea in devon, lots think labour will take the seat. it is all about the future than my minister. so if the prime minister _ future than my minister. so if the prime minister wins _ future than my minister. so if the prime minister wins tonight, - future than my minister. so if the prime minister wins tonight, so i future than my minister. so if the i prime minister wins tonight, so you are expecting a, aren't you? i prime minister wins tonight, so you are expecting a, aren't you?- are expecting a, aren't you? i think so. i are expecting a, aren't you? i think so- i think — are expecting a, aren't you? i think so- i think it— are expecting a, aren't you? i think so. i think it would _ are expecting a, aren't you? i think so. i think it would be _ are expecting a, aren't you? i think so. i think it would be quite - so. i think it would be quite surprising if he lost. bind so. i think it would be quite surprising if he lost. and so he would then _ surprising if he lost. and so he would then be _ surprising if he lost. and so he would then be able _ surprising if he lost. and so he would then be able to - surprising if he lost. and so he would then be able to say, - surprising if he lost. and so he i would then be able to say, look. surprising if he lost. and so he - would then be able to say, look. we have had a police investigation, we have had a police investigation, we have had a police investigation, we have had the sue gray report, we have had the sue gray report, we have now had a vote amongst our own mps. we need to draw a line under this and genuinely move on. it is unlikely to happen? l

this and genuinely move on. it is unlikely to happen?— unlikely to happen? i think obviously _ unlikely to happen? i think obviously that _ unlikely to happen? i think obviously that is _ unlikely to happen? i think obviously that is aligned i unlikely to happen? i think obviously that is aligned to unlikely to happen? i think - obviously that is aligned to take, thatis obviously that is aligned to take, that is what he will say, that is what those who support him or say but i don't think this is going to put everything to bed. it is all about the voters feel about boris johnson at the end of the day. that is why he is under pressure, that is why conservative mps are feeling quite queasy about going into the next election with him. that isn't going to evaporate overnight because i don't think that lime awash with voters. because it won't moth most voters. because it won't moth most voters i don't think a wash with conservative mps. l voters i don't think a wash with conservative mps.— voters i don't think a wash with conservative mps. i am 'ust hearing that conservative h conservative mps. i am 'ust hearing that conservative mp _ conservative mps. i am just hearing that conservative mp john - conservative mps. i am just hearing that conservative mp john penrose | that conservative mpjohn penrose who had a title of anti corruption i think that was the title has just resigned from that role. so, potentiallyjohn penrose might be turning up on college green at any an end. your reaction to that? i think again a resignation like that in the run—up to this boat it is just not what downing street will be wanting to see. it is not how they be wanting to stage manage this, it

again contributes to the sense that the prime minister is in crisis. thank you very much. i think damian is here have you got a microphone on? let share. l is here have you got a microphone on? let share.— on? let share. i can tell you a bit about john _ on? let share. i can tell you a bit about john penrose, _ on? let share. i can tell you a bit about john penrose, he - on? let share. i can tell you a bit about john penrose, he is- on? let share. i can tell you a bit about john penrose, he is the - on? let share. i can tell you a bit| about john penrose, he is the mp on? let share. i can tell you a bit- about john penrose, he is the mp for aboutjohn penrose, he is the mp for weston—super—mare. he has been sharing, he is the anti—corruption chair in the conservative policy forum and anti—corruption which champion. he hasjust announced that he is resigning he had said this is basically because, remember the partygate affair, last week, we had questions. so borisjohnson's advisor questions. so boris johnson's advisor on questions. so borisjohnson's advisor on standards he produced this report last week, wrote to borisjohnson and boris

this report last week, wrote to boris johnson and boris johnson replied. borisjohnson and borisjohnson replied. another questionnaire, the key question was had borisjohnson broken the ministerial code, that governs hisjob as broken the ministerial code, that governs his job as a minister, broken the ministerial code, that governs hisjob as a minister, if you do so it is often a resigning matter. the suggestion, from the adviser was that it could appear that boris johnson adviser was that it could appear that borisjohnson had broken ministerial code because in his role as prime minister, his duty is to uphold the law. but he was fined for that party in downing street. the breaking the law so the question was after the reply last week about ministerial code it is pretty clear he has broken it that is a resigning matterfor me and he has broken it that is a resigning matter for me and it should be for the pm too. and then he has a letter explaining what his reasons, he says, it is your public letter, replying to your ministerial code, you addressed concern over the fixed

penalty notice but not the broader criticism of failed leadership and judgment. it is hard to see how it could have reached any other conclusion that you had broken the code. i hope you will now stand aside so we can look to the future and choose your successor. said that adds a little — and choose your successor. said that adds a little to _ and choose your successor. said that adds a little to the _ and choose your successor. said that adds a little to the momentum - adds a little to the momentum against the buy minister it is like against the buy minister it is like a pendulum clock, isn't it? when you hearfrom a pendulum clock, isn't it? when you hear from even people you think the pendulum is swimming away from boris johnson and then it is swinging back to him. at some point will speak to the brexit opportunities minister jacob rees—mogg, who also obviously be in support of borisjohnson. l be in support of borisjohnson. i think the issue there was the whole jubilee celebration i think we saw a lot of mps not putting letters in, the suggestion from sir graham brady was that they had put them in and they because they didn't want anything distracting from what happen over the weekend. that could be the reason why, we don't know. i

think it is interesting because although as you were just hearing now, there is an expectation, it is a big hurdle for the prime minister's critics to grasses, getting 180 mps to vote against him. as you say, there is a very fluid situation at the minute and what we haveis situation at the minute and what we have is there is a letter from situation at the minute and what we have is there is a letterfrom boris johnson being sent today to all of his mps laying out his reason why they think they should vote for him. he says, vote for me to to draw a line under these issues, to focus on what it really matters, i'm asking for your support, together we won the biggest mandate for the conservative party in 40 years. he is calling on them saying, today we can put all of this behind us. what you get in this resignation is exactly the opposite point being put. i can see jacob rees—mogg and that he is talking to steve, he is the guy you would have seen on couege the guy you would have seen on college green over the years who is

not a supporter borisjohnson and is not a supporter borisjohnson and is not a supporter of brexit and mr rees mogg isjust not a supporter of brexit and mr rees mogg is just walking over now. bear with us. hello mr rees mogg. thank you very much for talking to us. we'rejust going thank you very much for talking to us. we're just going to get microphone on you. thank you for talking to us on bbc news, and bbc world. what do you think of the fact that 15% of your party want to boris johnson out? i that 15% of your party want to boris johnson out?— johnson out? i think most of the time ou johnson out? i think most of the time you will— johnson out? i think most of the time you will find _ johnson out? i think most of the time you will find 50% _ johnson out? i think most of the time you will find 50% of- johnson out? i think most of the time you will find 5096 of most i time you will find 50% of most parties — time you will find 50% of most parties who aren't fully aligned it means— parties who aren't fully aligned it means that 80% haven't put letters then _ means that 80% haven't put letters then i_ means that 80% haven't put letters then. i think one shouldn't read too much _ then. i think one shouldn't read too much in _ then. i think one shouldn't read too much in into— then. i think one shouldn't read too much in into reaching that relatively low hurdle. the mac really? — relatively low hurdle. the mac really? why? it leaves 80% on the other— really? why? it leaves 80% on the other side — really? why? it leaves 80% on the other side of the equation. it reads into a _ other side of the equation. it reads into a confidence vote on the prime ministers and i and you know what happens _ ministers and i and you know what happens to— ministers and i and you know what happens to leaders of your party who

have no— happens to leaders of your party who have no confidence votes, they don't last very— have no confidence votes, they don't last very long even if they win. theresa — last very long even if they win. theresa may, indeed won her confidence vote. and yet you call to her to _ confidence vote. and yet you call to her to resign after she won it. she she couldn't — her to resign after she won it. she she couldn't command the hazard,. boris _ she couldn't command the hazard,. borisjohnson has. if if boris johnson _ borisjohnson has. if if boris johnson wins, even if he wins which i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? _ i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? l— i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? i don't _ i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? i don't know, - i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? i don't know, one - i'm assuming you are sacked? by what sort of margin? i don't know, one is i sort of margin? i don't know, one is enouih. i sort of margin? i don't know, one is enough- i hope _ sort of margin? i don't know, one is enough. i hope every _ sort of margin? i don't know, one is enough. i hope every conservative i sort of margin? i don't know, one is i enough. i hope every conservative mp will vote _ enough. i hope every conservative mp will vote for _ enough. i hope every conservative mp will vote for him but this is a democracy. and if you win by one vote _ democracy. and if you win by one vote you — democracy. and if you win by one vote you have one. are you seriously saying _ vote you have one. are you seriously saying if— vote you have one. are you seriously saying if he _ vote you have one. are you seriously saying if he wins by one vote his majority — saying if he wins by one vote his majority will be intact? so when theresa — majority will be intact? so when theresa may won two thirds of the conservative party in her

no—confidence vote you called for her to _ no—confidence vote you called for her to resign. no—confidence vote you called for herto resign. i no—confidence vote you called for her to resign. i did and everyone said i_ her to resign. i did and everyone said i was— her to resign. i did and everyone said i was wrong. friend and non-friend _ said i was wrong. friend and non—friend alike. that was my greatest — non—friend alike. that was my greatest mistake someone said to me because _ greatest mistake someone said to me because in— greatest mistake someone said to me because in the democracy one is enough — because in the democracy one is enough. and so i had learned from my mistakes _ enough. and so i had learned from my mistakes. you enough. and so i had learned from my mistakes. ., ., ., ., mistakes. you are saying that with a straiiht mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face- _ mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face. i _ mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face. i am _ mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face. i am saying _ mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face. i am saying it - mistakes. you are saying that with a straight face. i am saying it with - straight face. i am saying it with a straiiht straight face. i am saying it with a straight face _ straight face. i am saying it with a straight face and _ straight face. i am saying it with a straight face and i _ straight face. i am saying it with a straight face and i mean. - straight face. i am saying it with a straight face and i mean. i - straight face. i am saying it with a straight face and i mean. i am - straight face and i mean. i am regretting _ straight face and i mean. i am regretting what i said at that point ithink— regretting what i said at that point i think it _ regretting what i said at that point i think it was wrong. so if regretting what i said at that point i think it was wrong.— i think it was wrong. so if boris johnson wins — i think it was wrong. so if boris johnson wins by _ i think it was wrong. so if boris johnson wins by one _ i think it was wrong. so if boris johnson wins by one vote - i think it was wrong. so if boris johnson wins by one vote he i i think it was wrong. so if boris| johnson wins by one vote he can carry on with his authority intact? . to pretend that the election result was — . to pretend that the election result was not _ . to pretend that the election result was not about - . to pretend that the election result was not about boris i . to pretend that the election - result was not about boris johnson's leadership— result was not about boris johnson's leadership as i think fanciful. i think— leadership as i think fanciful. i think a — leadership as i think fanciful. i think a mandate from the british people _ think a mandate from the british people cannot be taken away from the prime _ people cannot be taken away from the prime minister likely and therefore can only— prime minister likely and therefore can only be taken away in accordance with the _ can only be taken away in accordance with the rules which he operates, and by— with the rules which he operates, and by this— with the rules which he operates, and by this is enough. are with the rules which he operates,

and by this is enough.— with the rules which he operates, and by this is enough. are you still friends with _ and by this is enough. are you still friends with andrea _ minister. one doesn't agree with everything 1's friends say. i think andrea was a big andrea leadsom backer in the early stages of the leadership contest last time. she did stand didn't she? so she wasn't an early— did stand didn't she? so she wasn't an early boris becker. what did stand didn't she? so she wasn't an early boris becker.— did stand didn't she? so she wasn't an early boris becker. what mood is johnson in today? _ an early boris becker. what mood is johnson in today? i— an early boris becker. what mood is johnson in today? i think _ an early boris becker. what mood is johnson in today? i think he - an early boris becker. what mood is johnson in today? i think he has - johnson in today? i think he has other people — johnson in today? i think he has other people he _ johnson in today? i think he has other people he needs - johnson in today? i think he has other people he needs to - johnson in today? i think he has other people he needs to speak| johnson in today? i think he has i other people he needs to speak to johnson in today? i think he has - other people he needs to speak to in a matter— other people he needs to speak to in a matter of— other people he needs to speak to in a matter of priority? i think the president — a matter of priority? i think the president of ukraine i believe he was speaking to early on today. and you know _ was speaking to early on today. and you know anything about that conversation? i don't have either the conversation? idon't have either the ability— conversation? i don't have either the ability or the rights to

eavesdrop on the prime ministers conversations with world leaders. that is _ conversations with world leaders. that is fair— conversations with world leaders. that is fair enough, do you think number ten are bullish about this as a member of his top team? i l number ten are bullish about this as a member of his top team? i i am number ten are bullish about this as a member of his top team? i- a member of his top team? i i am a member of— a member of his top team? i i am a member of his top _ a member of his top team? i i am a member of his top team, _ a member of his top team? i i am a member of his top team, look, all. member of his top team, look, all elections — member of his top team, look, all elections have to be campaigned for properly— elections have to be campaigned for properly and effectively. i am very optimistic— properly and effectively. i am very optimistic about the result. but you have to _ optimistic about the result. but you have to encourage people to turn out and vote _ have to encourage people to turn out and vote. so, one has got to get this balance right. how are you encouraging people to vote for boris johnson? _ encouraging people to vote for boris johnson? i_ encouraging people to vote for boris johnson? i point to the mandate that he is scott _ johnson? i point to the mandate that he is scott and his success as a leader~ — he is scott and his success as a leader~ i— he is scott and his success as a leader. i also think without boris johnson — leader. i also think without boris johnson brexit will not be delivered so i think— johnson brexit will not be delivered so i think it — johnson brexit will not be delivered so i think it is been the remaining interest — so i think it is been the remaining interest. this campaign to got rid of boris _ interest. this campaign to got rid of borisjohnson, why? lets go back into the _ of borisjohnson, why? lets go back into the single market, to stop brexit — into the single market, to stop brexit so _ into the single market, to stop brexit. so people who don't like

brexit— brexit. so people who don't like brexit don't like borisjohnson. andrea — brexit don't like borisjohnson. andrea leadsom doesn't like brexit. you can't pretend this is anything to do— you can't pretend this is anything to do with — you can't pretend this is anything to do with brexit. the big figures, charm _ to do with brexit. the big figures, charm and — to do with brexit. the big figures, charm and select committees who have come out _ charm and select committees who have come out. ., u, charm and select committees who have come out. ., .., ., charm and select committees who have come out. ., ., ., charm and select committees who have come out-_ i - charm and select committees who have come out-_ i can - come out. you can name one. i can name others — come out. you can name one. i can name others actually, _ come out. you can name one. i can name others actually, you - come out. you can name one. i can name others actually, you know i come out. you can name one. i can| name others actually, you know who they are _ name others actually, you know who they are as _ name others actually, you know who they are as well as i do, you can name _ they are as well as i do, you can name them _ they are as well as i do, you can name them. but it is better let leave _ name them. but it is better let leave them naming to journalist rather— leave them naming to journalist rather than doing it myself is that we can— rather than doing it myself is that we can certainly name jeremy hunt now who _ we can certainly name jeremy hunt now who didn't want to leave the european — now who didn't want to leave the european union. so you have got people _ european union. so you have got people who are pro the european union, _ people who are pro the european union, who are campaigning to get rid the _ union, who are campaigning to get rid the prime minister. i think it is powerfully reasonable to join the dots _ is powerfully reasonable to 'oin the dots. ., ., ., , ., is powerfully reasonable to 'oin the dots. ., ., ., ,, dots. come on, that is a conspiracy theo . dots. come on, that is a conspiracy theory- they _ dots. come on, that is a conspiracy theory- they are — dots. come on, that is a conspiracy theory. they are not _ dots. come on, that is a conspiracy theory. they are not conspiring - dots. come on, that is a conspiracy| theory. they are not conspiring that is what they — theory. they are not conspiring that is what they believe. _ theory. they are not conspiring that is what they believe. they - theory. they are not conspiring that is what they believe. they are - theory. they are not conspiring that is what they believe. they are just i is what they believe. they are just likes— is what they believe. they are just likes sue — is what they believe. they are just

likes sue gray. is what they believe. they are 'ust likes sue gray.�* likes sue gray. brexit has been delivered. _ likes sue gray. brexit has been delivered, you _ likes sue gray. brexit has been delivered, you are _ likes sue gray. brexit has been delivered, you are arguing - likes sue gray. brexit has been - delivered, you are arguing although you want to rip up the deal now. there is a lot still to do, that is what _ there is a lot still to do, that is what i'm — there is a lot still to do, that is what i'm doing. why is there a minister— what i'm doing. why is there a minister for brexit opportunities we must ask _ minister for brexit opportunities we must ask. �* . . , minister for brexit opportunities we must ask. �* .., , i. minister for brexit opportunities we must ask. �* , ., minister for brexit opportunities we mustask. , ., ., must ask. because you have to sort out the borders. _ must ask. because you have to sort out the borders. so _ must ask. because you have to sort out the borders. so we _ must ask. because you have to sort out the borders. so we have - must ask. because you have to sort| out the borders. so we have got the freedoms. . , , out the borders. so we have got the freedoms. ., , , , out the borders. so we have got the freedoms. . , , , . freedoms. that is why there is a call for us _ freedoms. that is why there is a call for us to _ freedoms. that is why there is a call for us to go _ freedoms. that is why there is a call for us to go back _ freedoms. that is why there is a call for us to go back into - freedoms. that is why there is a call for us to go back into the i call for us to go back into the single — call for us to go back into the single market because we have not used enough of our freedom. 5596 of conservative — used enough of our freedom. 5596 of conservative voters, _ used enough of our freedom. 5596 of conservative voters, across - used enough of our freedom. 5596 of conservative voters, across the - conservative voters, across the country do not trust borisjohnson, that must be alarming. polls country do not trust boris johnson, that must be alarming.— that must be alarming. polls taken in midterm are _ that must be alarming. polls taken in midterm are very _ that must be alarming. polls taken in midterm are very not _ that must be alarming. polls taken in midterm are very not flashing i that must be alarming. polls taken in midterm are very not flashing to the government.— in midterm are very not flashing to the government. conservative voters, this is. the government. conservative voters, this is- the — the government. conservative voters, this is. the same _ the government. conservative voters, this is. the same was _

the government. conservative voters, this is. the same was true _ the government. conservative voters, this is. the same was true for - this is. the same was true for margaret _ this is. the same was true for margaret thatcher. _ this is. the same was true for margaret thatcher. parties i this is. the same was true for margaret thatcher. parties in | margaret thatcher. parties in mid-term _ margaret thatcher. parties in mid—term often go through scores of unpopularity. if you look at the polls _ unpopularity. if you look at the polls miliband would have become prime _ polls miliband would have become prime minister and polls miliband would have become prime ministerand i know polls miliband would have become prime minister and i know that he didn't _ prime minister and i know that he didn't lt— prime minister and i know that he didn't. , ., ,., , prime minister and i know that he didn't. , ., , . ., didn't. it is about his character and that seems _ didn't. it is about his character and that seems to _ didn't. it is about his character and that seems to be - didn't. it is about his character i and that seems to be something didn't. it is about his character - and that seems to be something that you are in denial about. lilo. and that seems to be something that you are in denial about. kiwi and that seems to be something that you are in denial about.— you are in denial about. no, i don't think! you are in denial about. no, i don't thinkl am- — you are in denial about. no, i don't thinkl am- i— you are in denial about. no, i don't think! am. ithink— you are in denial about. no, i don't think i am. i think he _ you are in denial about. no, i don't think i am. i think he has _ you are in denial about. no, i don't think i am. i think he has a - you are in denial about. no, i don't think i am. i think he has a very i think i am. i think he has a very charismatic— think i am. i think he has a very charismatic character that has a great _ charismatic character that has a great appeal to some people but it also has _ great appeal to some people but it also has always annoyed some others. some _ also has always annoyed some others. some people have never liked him. 55% of— some people have never liked him. 55% of conservative voters don't believe he is trustworthy. the day the po faced. believe he is trustworthy. the day the po faced-— believe he is trustworthy. the day the po faced. ., , .,, , the po faced. you can find problems to sa all the po faced. you can find problems to say all sorts _ the po faced. you can find problems to say all sorts of _ the po faced. you can find problems to say all sorts of things. _ the po faced. you can find problems to say all sorts of things. you've - to say all sorts of things. you've -ot to say all sorts of things. you've got to— to say all sorts of things. you've got to be — to say all sorts of things. you've got to be very careful about who was asked. _ got to be very careful about who was asked. how— got to be very careful about who was asked, how what was a question, how is it phrase _ asked, how what was a question, how is it phrase prime minister is mid-term _ is it phrase prime minister is mid—term are not at their most popular~ — mid-term are not at their most .0 ular. mid-term are not at their most “oular. ., mid-term are not at their most .0 ular. ., ., mid-term are not at their most --oular. ., ., ., popular. so, after tonight what happens? _ popular. so, after tonight what happens? tomorrow _ popular. so, after tonight what happens? tomorrow comes - popular. so, after tonight what| happens? tomorrow comes and popular. so, after tonight what _ happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day- _

happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day. how— happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day. how are _ happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day. how are you _ happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day. how are you going - happens? tomorrow comes and tomorrow is another day. how are you going to - is another day. how are you going to be able to draw— is another day. how are you going to be able to draw a _ is another day. how are you going to be able to draw a line _ is another day. how are you going to be able to draw a line under - is another day. how are you going to be able to draw a line under this - be able to draw a line under this when you have the privileges report coming in the autumn?— coming in the autumn? there will a better vote — coming in the autumn? there will a better vote closes _ coming in the autumn? there will a better vote closes down _ coming in the autumn? there will a better vote closes down the - coming in the autumn? there will a better vote closes down the issue. | better vote closes down the issue. it didn't— better vote closes down the issue. it didn't have to theresa may did it. ., , , .., , it didn't have to theresa may did it. ., , it didn't have to theresa may did it. . it. that is because she didn't have the majority _ it. that is because she didn't have the majority in — it. that is because she didn't have the majority in the _ it. that is because she didn't have the majority in the house - it. that is because she didn't have the majority in the house of - it. that is because she didn't have - the majority in the house of commons and she _ the majority in the house of commons and she was— the majority in the house of commons and she was trying to get a referral deal through that she couldn't get through — deal through that she couldn't get through. so it is very different circumstances.— through. so it is very different circumstances. ., ., ., circumstances. what would you say to these mps who _ circumstances. what would you say to these mps who are _ circumstances. what would you say to these mps who are considering - circumstances. what would you say to these mps who are considering voting j these mps who are considering voting against borisjohnson this evening? i would remind them that got a letter— i would remind them that got a letter by— i would remind them that got a letter by supporting boris johnson i would remind them that got a letter by supporting borisjohnson i would _ letter by supporting borisjohnson i would remind them of the response ability— would remind them of the response ability to— would remind them of the response ability to deliver brexit. i would remind — ability to deliver brexit. i would remind them of the leadership of the prime _ remind them of the leadership of the prime minister has shown in relation to ukraine — prime minister has shown in relation to ukraine i— prime minister has shown in relation to ukraine. i would then further remind— to ukraine. i would then further remind them of the steps he has taken _ remind them of the steps he has taken to— remind them of the steps he has taken to deal with the cost of living — taken to deal with the cost of living problem. the prime minister is a prime — living problem. the prime minister is a prime minister who gets the big issues _ is a prime minister who gets the big issues right. but they really fussing _ issues right. but they really fussing over whether or not there

was a _ fussing over whether or not there was a birthday cake? you fussing over whether or not there was a birthday cake?— fussing over whether or not there was a birthday cake? you know it is not to do with _ was a birthday cake? you know it is not to do with a _ was a birthday cake? you know it is not to do with a birthday _ was a birthday cake? you know it is not to do with a birthday cake - not to do with a birthday cake please don't pretend it's about a birthday cake. please don't pretend it's about a birthday cake-— please don't pretend it's about a birthda cake. ., , a birthday cake. what is it about? as those those _ birthday cake. what is it about? as those those people _ birthday cake. what is it about? as those those people do _ birthday cake. what is it about? as those those people do not - birthday cake. what is it about? as those those people do not believe| birthday cake. what is it about? as i those those people do not believe he is trustworthy- _ those those people do not believe he is trustworthy. none _ those those people do not believe he is trustworthy. none of _ those those people do not believe he is trustworthy. none of this - those those people do not believe he is trustworthy. none of this was - is trustworthy. none of this was happening _ is trustworthy. none of this was happening until— is trustworthy. none of this was happening until there _ is trustworthy. none of this was happening until there was - is trustworthy. none of this was happening until there was a - is trustworthy. none of this was | happening until there was a fuss over birthday cake, it seems to be the most — over birthday cake, it seems to be the most trivial reason for having a vote of— the most trivial reason for having a vote of confidence. i am being waived — vote of confidence. i am being waived up, will you excuse me, i'm supposed _ waived up, will you excuse me, i'm supposed to— waived up, will you excuse me, i'm supposed to be owing to talking to someone — supposed to be owing to talking to someone else. i apologise for cutting — someone else. i apologise for cutting off like this. he has been making _ cutting off like this. he has been making signs i'm about the sum minutes, — making signs i'm about the sum minutes, thank you very much. thank you for— minutes, thank you very much. thank you for talking to us. i'm going to try and read some messages from you, so bear with me please. i'm asking you as voters, right around the country, what do

you think about the fact that there is a no—confidence vote in the prime minister tonight? is a no—confidence vote in the prime ministertonight? here is a no—confidence vote in the prime minister tonight? here are some of your messages. andrew says it is essentially entertainment, the political system that produced boris johnson will remain unchanged. the root cause of the problem will not be addressed by offering him up as a sacrificial lamb, though it may make quite a lot of people feel good for a short time. neil says it is not a surprise, and if the conservatives follow the way they have done in the past, regardless of the outcome borisjohnson will be gone within weeks and months. kay says the jubilee celebrated a long period of time, a stable head state with a clear succession in place, whereas today in parliament... fran says, we need to have a conversation, but i think he may win narrowly. there is no one else in the conservative

party who wants the job, they have all held on their positions and they know the mess caused by boris johnson be fixed. let's bring in natasha, what is yourjob? ihsnd johnson be fixed. let's bring in natasha, what is yourjob? natasha, what is your 'ob? and the olitical natasha, what is yourjob? and the political correspondent. _ natasha, what is yourjob? and the political correspondent. i _ natasha, what is yourjob? and the political correspondent. i think- political correspondent. i think everybody is going to be surprised by the intensity and the speed that this is going to be done. there is not a lot of people in government are expecting this to happen so quickly today. boris johnson are expecting this to happen so quickly today. borisjohnson is going to appear in front of the 1922 committee before the vote, they are going to be having their vote today, at 6pm, and before that he will make his case to mps, and there is the time to focus on the issues that really matter to people. that

time to focus on the issues that really matter to people.- really matter to people. that is what the prime _ really matter to people. that is what the prime minister - really matter to people. that is what the prime minister and i really matter to people. that is - what the prime minister and number ten have been saying for weeks if not months, and yet we are still here. the threshold will still reached. , ., _ ., here. the threshold will still reached. , ., _ . , here. the threshold will still reached. , ., _ ., reached. obviously what they are worried about _ reached. obviously what they are worried about now— reached. obviously what they are worried about now is _ reached. obviously what they are worried about now is the - reached. obviously what they are | worried about now is the coalition from across the conservative party, lots of different wings of the conservative party. notjust what lots of different wings of the conservative party. not just what we have heard about people who don't traditionally like borisjohnson. obviously we have had jeremy hunt, today saying that he is ready to run for the leadership of such are vacancy arises. you have people from all wings of the country saying that we need to change it up. in all wings of the country saying that we need to change it up.— all wings of the country saying that we need to change it up. in terms of if we ever get _ we need to change it up. in terms of if we ever get to _ we need to change it up. in terms of if we ever get to a _ we need to change it up. in terms of if we ever get to a leadership - if we ever get to a leadership contest, the vote tonight, whether he wins or loses, what potentially could lead to a conservative party leadership contest?— leadership contest? essentially if he loses this _ leadership contest? essentially if he loses this vote _ leadership contest? essentially if he loses this vote of _ leadership contest? essentially if he loses this vote of no - leadership contest? essentially if. he loses this vote of no confidence then i think that is it for boris

johnson. even if he wins it is a question of numbers. how much time does he have left? we remember what happens with theresa may's vote stop even after she won it people were talking about how much time left does she have? she did go on to lose three very major advance in the commons. if borisjohnson can command that majority, it will be vote seeing how he does in the commons. at the moment there is a grace period of one year, so conservative mps can only do it this once, they affect this time, they're hoping that this is the time to oust him if that is what they want, but they have a year if he does when this where they cannot launch another leadership challenge. if those rules get changed, boris johnson might not be safe for so long. d0 johnson might not be safe for so [on _ ., johnson might not be safe for so loni. ., ., ., , johnson might not be safe for so lon. ., ., ., , long. do have idea at this point, are ou long. do have idea at this point, are you doing — long. do have idea at this point, are you doing the _ long. do have idea at this point, are you doing the maths, - long. do have idea at this point, j are you doing the maths, seeing long. do have idea at this point, - are you doing the maths, seeing who is come out and support... there

are you doing the maths, seeing who is come out and support. . ._ is come out and support... there is a lot of people _ is come out and support... there is a lot of people doing _ is come out and support... there is a lot of people doing the _ is come out and support... there is a lot of people doing the number. a lot of people doing the number crunching. we are talking about 60 mps who have come out publicly today saying they will be backing boris johnson. he needs 180 to win. there are a lot of people on the government pay for moment, that includesjunior government pay for moment, that includes junior ministers and whips. .. includes junior ministers and whips... 50 includes 'unior ministers and whis... ., , . ., whips... so you would expect him to be supported--- _ whips... so you would expect him to be supported... there _ whips. .. so you would expect him to be supported... there will— whips... so you would expect him to be supported... there will be - whips... so you would expect him to be supported... there will be some | be supported... there will be some --eole on be supported... there will be some people on private — be supported... there will be some people on private ill _ be supported... there will be some people on private ill be _ be supported... there will be some people on private ill be worried - people on private ill be worried about the numbers but at the moment it doesn't look like what we can see so far that he will win the vote of no confidence and then the conversation goes to, how dizzy shoppers leadership, does he decide to get back on the front foot and say ok i'm going to launch a whole set of policy announcements to try and get back on track, and at the moment i think he is going to win but it is still very early days of the moment.— but it is still very early days of the moment. ~ �* ., , ~ ,

the moment. we've had multiple mps comini out the moment. we've had multiple mps coming out supporting _ the moment. we've had multiple mps coming out supporting them, - the moment. we've had multiple mps| coming out supporting them, multiple mps saying they won't support him, which means most of the conservative party has been quiet. is that fair? i think that is fair so far. a lot of people don't want to air their dirty laundry in public, a lot of mps would have these conversations in private. will be waiting to see who puts their head above the parapet and says something, ask people begin to see what their colleagues think, and there is a lack of a serious successor for him at the moment.— lack of a serious successor for him at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering. — at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering. if _ at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering, if you _ at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering, if you could _ at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering, if you could send - at the moment. thank you very much. do wondering, if you could send out i do wondering, if you could send out there, john penrose we are on bbc world and bbc news in the uk, you are a conservative mp, you have until today been so cold anti—corruption. you have resign from your old today, please expire and why. from your old today, please expire

and wh . g , from your old today, please expire and wh ., , , ., from your old today, please expire andwh. , , ., and why. just before her ma'esty's platinum jubilee, * and why. just before her ma'esty's platinum jubilee, the fi and why. just before her ma'esty's platinum jubilee, the prime h and why. just before her majesty's i platinum jubilee, the prime minister was followed for the first time to the souray report. i'm afraid his reply— the souray report. i'm afraid his replyjust — the souray report. i'm afraid his replyjust wasn't very good. it was more _ replyjust wasn't very good. it was more about— replyjust wasn't very good. it was more about what it didn't say, the souray— more about what it didn't say, the souray report is a very serious set of criticisms — souray report is a very serious set of criticisms about leadership, and one of— of criticisms about leadership, and one of the — of criticisms about leadership, and one of the key principles underlying, running like a stick of rock all— underlying, running like a stick of rock all the — underlying, running like a stick of rock all the way through the ministerial code is about standards in public— ministerial code is about standards in public life, and he didn't address— in public life, and he didn't address that at all. if you read the souray— address that at all. if you read the souray report you can't reach any other— souray report you can't reach any other conclusion other than he has breached _ other conclusion other than he has breached that fundamental principle. he must— breached that fundamental principle. he must have breached the ministerial code, and that is normally— ministerial code, and that is normally a resignation issue. it shouldn't— normally a resignation issue. it shouldn't be anything but a resignation issue for him, it

certainly— resignation issue for him, it certainly is for me. he has done a lot which— certainly is for me. he has done a lot which i— certainly is for me. he has done a lot which i am very grateful for, but none — lot which i am very grateful for, but none of the good things he has done _ but none of the good things he has done necessarilyjustifies breaking done necessarily justifies breaking the done necessarilyjustifies breaking the ministerial code, which he himself— the ministerial code, which he himself will say is one of the underpinnings of good government and integrity— underpinnings of good government and integrity in _ underpinnings of good government and integrity in government in this country — integrity in government in this country. so integrity in government in this count . ., , , integrity in government in this count . ., , country. so for you this is about his character? _ country. so for you this is about his character? it _ country. so for you this is about his character? it is _ country. so for you this is about his character? it is particularly i his character? it is particularly about the _ his character? it is particularly about the fact _ his character? it is particularly about the fact the _ his character? it is particularly about the fact the souray - his character? it is particularly i about the fact the souray report says he — about the fact the souray report says he has broken the ministerial code _ says he has broken the ministerial code and — says he has broken the ministerial code and therefore he has to go. —— sue gray— code and therefore he has to go. —— sue gray report. the report came out 'ust sue gray report. the report came out just before — sue gray report. the report came out just before her majesty's platinum jubilee. _ just before her majesty's platinum jubilee, it wouldn't have been right to make _ jubilee, it wouldn't have been right to make a — jubilee, it wouldn't have been right to make a comment about it during the jubilee. — to make a comment about it during thejubilee, i knew there to make a comment about it during the jubilee, i knew there was going to be a _ the jubilee, i knew there was going to be a vote of confidence today, but i _ to be a vote of confidence today, but i didn't— to be a vote of confidence today, but i didn't think it would be right to hold _ but i didn't think it would be right to hold off— but i didn't think it would be right to hold off either. do but i didn't think it would be right to hold off either.— but i didn't think it would be right to hold off either. do you happen to know how many _

to hold off either. do you happen to know how many letters _ to hold off either. do you happen to know how many letters the - to hold off either. do you happen to know how many letters the 1922 - know how many letters the 1922 committee have received. you talk to colleagues, do you know who submitted them? i colleagues, do you know who submitted them?— colleagues, do you know who submitted them? i don't know of an bod submitted them? i don't know of anybody who _ submitted them? i don't know of anybody who is _ submitted them? i don't know of anybody who is organising - submitted them? i don't know of anybody who is organising this. i submitted them? i don't know of| anybody who is organising this. if they are. — anybody who is organising this. if they are, they haven't organised it with me _ they are, they haven't organised it with me if— they are, they haven't organised it with me. �* ., , they are, they haven't organised it with me. 1, ,_, they are, they haven't organised it with me. , with me. if boris johnson wins toniiht with me. if boris johnson wins tonight then — with me. if boris johnson wins tonight then will _ with me. if boris johnson wins tonight then will there - with me. if boris johnson wins tonight then will there be - with me. if boris johnson wins tonight then will there be a i with me. if boris johnson wins - tonight then will there be a period of silence from people like yourself and other critics within the party? think it will depend on what the results — think it will depend on what the results are one way or another. jacob _ results are one way or another. jacob rees _ results are one way or another. jacob rees mogg said that if boris johnson _ jacob rees mogg said that if boris johnson wins by one he's says that is the _ johnson wins by one he's says that is the democratic vote, 180 is all you need — is the democratic vote, 180 is all you need. jacob is constitutionally correct, _ you need. jacob is constitutionally correct, but he will also know, he was involved in the plans to topple theresa _ was involved in the plans to topple theresa may, he will note that previous — theresa may, he will note that previous four ministers who have won a vote _ previous four ministers who have won a vote of— previous four ministers who have won a vote of no _ previous four ministers who have won a vote of no confidence haven't managed — a vote of no confidence haven't managed to last very long after

that _ managed to last very long after that he— managed to last very long after that. ., , , , that. he said it was very different with theresa _ that. he said it was very different with theresa may _ that. he said it was very different with theresa may though, - that. he said it was very different with theresa may though, he - that. he said it was very different| with theresa may though, he said that. he said it was very different - with theresa may though, he said she had lost the house of commons. he may be right, but let's get through this evening and find out what the result— this evening and find out what the result is — this evening and find out what the result is. , . ., ., , ., result is. the expectation is from colleagues. _ result is. the expectation is from colleagues, from _ result is. the expectation is from colleagues, from journalists, - result is. the expectation is from | colleagues, from journalists, that he will win this. colleagues, from 'ournalists, that he will win this._ colleagues, from 'ournalists, that he will win this. they may very well be riiht, he will win this. they may very well be right. what _ he will win this. they may very well be right, what is _ he will win this. they may very well be right, what is the _ he will win this. they may very well be right, what is the famous - he will win this. they may very wellj be right, what is the famous quote, never— be right, what is the famous quote, never make — be right, what is the famous quote, never make predictions especially about— never make predictions especially about the — never make predictions especially about the future. do never make predictions especially about the future.— never make predictions especially about the future. do you go quietly then, do about the future. do you go quietly then. do you _ about the future. do you go quietly then, do you pledge _ about the future. do you go quietly then, do you pledge your _ about the future. do you go quietly then, do you pledge your support i about the future. do you go quietly| then, do you pledge your support to him? , ., , , ., ., then, do you pledge your support to him? , , ., ., , ., him? the problem is that a breach of the ministerial— him? the problem is that a breach of the ministerial code _ him? the problem is that a breach of the ministerial code isn't _ him? the problem is that a breach of the ministerial code isn't something l the ministerial code isn't something that goes— the ministerial code isn't something that goes away. it isn't something that goes away. it isn't something that people shrug and move on from. the fact— that people shrug and move on from. the fact that there has been a breach— the fact that there has been a breach of— the fact that there has been a breach of the ministerial code isn't something — breach of the ministerial code isn't something that others will be willing — something that others will be willing to overlook. i can't see how that happens, regardless of what others _ that happens, regardless of what others may say.

that happens, regardless of what others may say-— that happens, regardless of what others may say. voters looking at this are going _ others may say. voters looking at this are going to _ others may say. voters looking at this are going to be _ others may say. voters looking at this are going to be thinking - others may say. voters looking at this are going to be thinking whatj this are going to be thinking what on earth are you all playing at? this is self—indulgence, this is vainglorious, this is navel—gazing, at a time of absolute crisis in this country. if at a time of absolute crisis in this count . , ., , at a time of absolute crisis in this count . , .,, , ., country. if this was planned, i think that _ country. if this was planned, i think that might _ country. if this was planned, i think that might be _ country. if this was planned, i think that might be point. - country. if this was planned, i think that might be point. i i country. if this was planned, i i think that might be point. i don't think— think that might be point. i don't think this — think that might be point. i don't think this is planned though, nobody has spoken— think this is planned though, nobody has spoken to me about it at all. this is— has spoken to me about it at all. this is about individual mps replying _ this is about individual mps replying to the constituents, they had to look at themselves in the mirror— had to look at themselves in the mirror and — had to look at themselves in the mirror and say, had to look at themselves in the mirrorand say, am i happy had to look at themselves in the mirror and say, am i happy with this, _ mirror and say, am i happy with this, what— mirror and say, am i happy with this, what is— mirror and say, am i happy with this, what is my personal integrity here _ this, what is my personal integrity here i_ this, what is my personal integrity here. i don't think it's about vainglorious nests or anything else at all _ vainglorious nests or anything else at all. did — vainglorious nests or anything else at all. , , ., vainglorious nests or anything else at all. , ,, . ~' vainglorious nests or anything else at all. , i. ., ,, ., at all. did you talk to constituents? - at all. did you talk to constituents? the i at all. did you talk to - constituents? the e-mails at all. did you talk to _ constituents? the e-mails have been comini constituents? the e-mails have been coming thick — constituents? the e-mails have been coming thick and _ constituents? the e-mails have been coming thick and fast, _ constituents? the e-mails have been coming thick and fast, they _ constituents? the e-mails have been coming thick and fast, they have - coming thick and fast, they have been _ coming thick and fast, they have been overwhelmingly hostile and

negative — been overwhelmingly hostile and negative i'm afraid will stop that is a big — negative i'm afraid will stop that is a big problem. they haven't been about— is a big problem. they haven't been about the _ is a big problem. they haven't been about the particular issues that i am dealing with.— am dealing with. where you influenced _ am dealing with. where you influenced at _ am dealing with. where you influenced at all _ am dealing with. where you influenced at all by - am dealing with. where you influenced at all by the - am dealing with. where you i influenced at all by the booing am dealing with. where you - influenced at all by the booing of some people in the crowds on saturday? where you influenced by the booing? were you surprised? it’s where you influenced by the booing? were you surprised?— were you surprised? it's always a surrise, were you surprised? it's always a surprise. it _ were you surprised? it's always a surprise, it doesn't _ were you surprised? it's always a surprise, it doesn't matter - were you surprised? it's always a surprise, it doesn't matter who i were you surprised? it's always a surprise, it doesn't matter who it| surprise, it doesn't matter who it is. i surprise, it doesn't matter who it is ithink— surprise, it doesn't matter who it is. i think nobody knows who the people _ is. i think nobody knows who the people were who were doing, what their normal voting intention was, or why _ their normal voting intention was, or why i— their normal voting intention was, or why. i wouldn't read too much into it _

or why. i wouldn't read too much into it. ~ ., , ., , ., ., into it. would its not be fair to assume that — into it. would its not be fair to assume that most _ into it. would its not be fair to assume that most people - into it. would its not be fair to | assume that most people there into it. would its not be fair to - assume that most people there wanted to watch the royal family, royalists. a couple of messages on twitter. lydon says the sooner they are all gone the better, the corruption, the lack of leadership, it's appalling. l corruption, the lack of leadership, it's appalling-— it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what _ it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what i _ it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what i would _ it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what i would say - it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what i would say is - it's appalling. i wouldn't go that far but what i would say is that l far but what i would say is that traditionally, if there is a breach of the _ traditionally, if there is a breach of the ministerial code, which is why am — of the ministerial code, which is why am resigning, that is for the minister— why am resigning, that is for the minister concerned, right up to the prime _ minister concerned, right up to the prime minister, to tender their resignation. prime minister, to tender their resignation-— prime minister, to tender their resiination. ., , , resignation. gordon says he fully exects resignation. gordon says he fully expects the _ resignation. gordon says he fully expects the prime _ resignation. gordon says he fully expects the prime minister - resignation. gordon says he fully expects the prime minister to i resignation. gordon says he fully| expects the prime minister to win tonight, the conservatives barely have a backbone between them. that must be a worry for you? let’s have a backbone between them. that must be a worry for you?— must be a worry for you? let's wait to see what — must be a worry for you? let's wait to see what the _ must be a worry for you? let's wait to see what the result _ must be a worry for you? let's wait to see what the result will- must be a worry for you? let's wait to see what the result will be - to see what the result will be before — to see what the result will be before guessing what it might mean. john penrose who resigned as anti—corruption tsar today. we are

going to talk to patrick english from yougov. tell us what the latest yougov polling tells you about the popularity of borisjohnson. the popularity of boris johnson. the fact of the _ popularity of boris johnson. tia: fact of the matter is popularity of boris johnson. ti9: fact of the matter is that boris johnson is simply not a popular politician right now with the public. we've been talking about whether or not he might resign, about 60% do think that he should go. the public do not think that borisjohnson is trustworthy, they do not believe him when he gives his reasons and his rationales, and they don't think he is being sincere when he offered his apologies. the public do think you should go. haste he offered his apologies. the public do think you should go.— do think you should go. have you done any polling _ do think you should go. have you done any polling on _ do think you should go. have you done any polling on the - do think you should go. have you done any polling on the latest i do think you should go. have you. done any polling on the latest cost of living packaged that the chancellor announced a couple of weeks ago? tiff chancellor announced a couple of weeks ago?— chancellor announced a couple of weeksaio? , :, , weeks ago? of course we have been testini this weeks ago? of course we have been testing this and _ weeks ago? of course we have been testing this and other—

weeks ago? of course we have been testing this and other policies, - weeks ago? of course we have been testing this and other policies, the i testing this and other policies, the jubilee of course has been impacting things, but the public opinion has been very stale about borisjohnson for quite some time now. we first checked in on this matter when stories were emerging injanuary, around then 60% of the british public thought that boris johnson should resign. there has been some noticeable positives, some slightly lukewarm responses to the cost of living arrangements, but this is overshadowing everything, particularly when it comes to boris johnson and the conservative government. they've been going down for quite some time now, almost a year there has been a decline in the ratings, and this is overshadowing everything at the moment.- ratings, and this is overshadowing everything at the moment. would you not exect everything at the moment. would you not exnect that. _ everything at the moment. would you not expect that, mid-term _ everything at the moment. would you not expect that, mid-term blues - everything at the moment. would you not expect that, mid-term blues as i not expect that, mid—term blues as they call it? not expect that, mid-term blues as they call it?— they call it? yes it is perfectly normal for — they call it? yes it is perfectly normal for the _ they call it? yes it is perfectly normal for the government i they call it? yes it is perfectly normal for the government to they call it? yes it is perfectly - normal for the government to fall behind in the polls, however what will be of concern to conservative

mps and many of those who handed in their letters over the past few weeks is that ratings for the prime minister are absolutely terrible with the public right now. they are really bad, and that is not something that is easy to come back from. they are looking at the cost of living crisis, they are looking at the fact that this partygate story does not seem to be going away, and they are saying that there is nothing positive to the government right now. the government being behind in the polls is not a surprise, you might expect them to be even further behind in the polls. that says something about the labour party right now. but there are not many who can see the way to winning the next election, looking at things right now i think that is what's playing on conservative mps right now. , :, ~' playing on conservative mps right now. , :, ~ :, :, now. lets talk to tim montgomerie ri . ht now. lets talk to tim montgomerie riiht now now. lets talk to tim montgomerie right now if- _ now. lets talk to tim montgomerie right now if. your _ now. lets talk to tim montgomerie right now if. your reaction - now. lets talk to tim montgomerie right now if. your reaction first - now. lets talk to tim montgomerie right now if. your reaction first of i right now if. your reaction first of all to the no—confidence vote? t

all to the no—confidence vote? i understand that the letters were in before _ understand that the letters were in before the — understand that the letters were in before the jubilee, i think the letters— before the jubilee, i think the letters were in and they did not want _ letters were in and they did not want to— letters were in and they did not want to disrupt the jubilee service and jubilee celebrations, but i think— and jubilee celebrations, but i think things like the booing of the prime _ think things like the booing of the prime minister by a crowd who would normally— prime minister by a crowd who would normally be — prime minister by a crowd who would normally be on a conservative prime minister's _ normally be on a conservative prime minister's site, really showed that today's _ minister's site, really showed that today's vote was necessary. i've also — today's vote was necessary. i've also been — today's vote was necessary. i've also been hearing very strongly from constituents about the continuing, persistent— constituents about the continuing, persistent anger at the prime minister's dishonesty. i've certainly had it within my own family— certainly had it within my own family in— certainly had it within my own family in the past few days, family members — family in the past few days, family members who have been a lifelong conservative voters just keep saying they don't _ conservative voters just keep saying they don't believe a word that the prime _ they don't believe a word that the prime minister says any more. you can't _ prime minister says any more. you can't have — prime minister says any more. you can't have a —

prime minister says any more. you can't have a conservative leader going _ can't have a conservative leader going into — can't have a conservative leader going into a potential general election— going into a potential general election when whatever he says on tax or— election when whatever he says on tax or climate or the cost of living, — tax or climate or the cost of living, peoplejust tax or climate or the cost of living, people just won't believe. i think— living, people just won't believe. i think the — living, people just won't believe. i think the prime minister will properly survive today, but you don't _ properly survive today, but you don't wound if ultimately you are not willing to go in for the kill, and i_ not willing to go in for the kill, and i don't _ not willing to go in for the kill, and i don't think it will be long until— and i don't think it will be long until the — and i don't think it will be long until the prime minister is an x prime — until the prime minister is an x prime minister, and the conservative party is— prime minister, and the conservative party is choosing a new leader. how do ou iet party is choosing a new leader. how do you get to _ party is choosing a new leader. how do you get to that _ party is choosing a new leader. how do you get to that point, because party is choosing a new leader. heidi do you get to that point, because if he wins, he wins. i'vejust do you get to that point, because if he wins, he wins. i've just spoken to jacob rees mogg, he says one voters are enough. he said this was about a birthday cake, he said it was a main plot.— was a main plot. this is where i thinkjacob _ was a main plot. this is where i thinkjacob rees _ was a main plot. this is where i thinkjacob rees mogg - was a main plot. this is where i thinkjacob rees mogg is - was a main plot. this is where i thinkjacob rees mogg is not i was a main plot. this is where i i thinkjacob rees mogg is not being was a main plot. this is where i - thinkjacob rees mogg is not being a very good _ thinkjacob rees mogg is not being a very good servant to the prime minister~ — very good servant to the prime minister. i've been an ardent supporter— minister. i've been an ardent supporter of brexit. i am not remain, _

supporter of brexit. i am not remain, i_ supporter of brexit. i am not remain, i am supporter of brexit. i am not remain, iam not supporter of brexit. i am not remain, i am not someone who is from the mentally— remain, i am not someone who is from the mentally exercised by the issue of cake _ the mentally exercised by the issue of cake i_ the mentally exercised by the issue of cake. i am exercised by the fact that there — of cake. i am exercised by the fact that there is clearly a culture in downing — that there is clearly a culture in downing street that the prime minister— downing street that the prime minister resided over where lawlessness on an epic scale took place _ lawlessness on an epic scale took place i_ lawlessness on an epic scale took place. i was adviser to the prime minister— place. i was adviser to the prime minister on — place. i was adviser to the prime minister on socialjustice two years a-o, minister on socialjustice two years ago, i— minister on socialjustice two years ago. isaw— minister on socialjustice two years ago, i saw massive dysfunction in downing — ago, i saw massive dysfunction in downing street, i want and they must be fundamental changes to how his organisation is organised. i chose to resign — organisation is organised. i chose to resign voluntarily after he ignored _ to resign voluntarily after he ignored those issues. again and again— ignored those issues. again and again the — ignored those issues. again and again the prime minister ignores good advice, and the problems that have beset— good advice, and the problems that have beset his government are entirely— have beset his government are entirely of his own making. he has failed _ entirely of his own making. he has failed to— entirely of his own making. he has failed to appoint a cabinet of real talent. _ failed to appoint a cabinet of real talent. he — failed to appoint a cabinet of real talent, he has people like jacob rees _ talent, he has people like jacob rees mogg, who are so loyal to the prime _ rees mogg, who are so loyal to the prime minister that they will

criticise _ prime minister that they will criticise the scottish conservative leader. _ criticise the scottish conservative leader, described that person is a lightweight, undermining our ability as a party— lightweight, undermining our ability as a party to protect the union. there _ as a party to protect the union. there are — as a party to protect the union. there are people around the prime minister— there are people around the prime minister who, there are people around the prime ministerwho, i'm afraid, are quite willing _ ministerwho, i'm afraid, are quite willing to — ministerwho, i'm afraid, are quite willing to destroy other members of the conservative party and the conservative party's prospectjust because _ conservative party's prospectjust because they want to back the prime minister~ _ because they want to back the prime minister. that sort of partisanship within— minister. that sort of partisanship within the — minister. that sort of partisanship within the party is very destructive, and i think by not describing the nature of the rebellion against the prime minister fairly. _ rebellion against the prime minister fairly. it _ rebellion against the prime minister fairly. it is— rebellion against the prime minister fairly, it is notjust about brexit, it is not— fairly, it is notjust about brexit, it is notjust _ fairly, it is notjust about brexit, it is notjust about cake, it is much — it is notjust about cake, it is much more _ it is notjust about cake, it is much more deep—seated about the prime _ much more deep—seated about the prime minister's honesty and sense of direction. that's why i think there — of direction. that's why i think there will— of direction. that's why i think there will be quite a substantial vote against the prime minister today~ — vote against the prime minister today. not enough to kill his premiership today, but certainly enough — premiership today, but certainly enough to show that his days are numbered — enough to show that his days are numbered-— enough to show that his days are numbered. :, ~' y:. , : h numbered. thank you very much. let's talk to the times _ numbered. thank you very much. let's

talk to the times columnist, _ numbered. thank you very much. let's talk to the times columnist, a - talk to the times columnist, a conservative supporter but not a great fan of boris johnson. conservative supporter but not a great fan of borisjohnson. who would you rather be leader of the conservative party?— would you rather be leader of the conservative party? let's see who stands. it looks _ conservative party? let's see who stands. it looks like _ conservative party? let's see who stands. it looks like jeremy - conservative party? let's see who stands. it looks like jeremy hunt, | stands. it looks likejeremy hunt, there will undoubtedly be others. i am not an mp any more, so who i mightfavour am not an mp any more, so who i might favour or am not an mp any more, so who i might favouror not am not an mp any more, so who i might favour or not favour fairly immaterial, but i will be interested to see the line—up, and not declare my own support for anybody until i know who is available. t5 it my own support for anybody until i know who is available.— know who is available. is it not an issue for conservative _ know who is available. is it not an issue for conservative mps - know who is available. is it not an issue for conservative mps that i issue for conservative mps that there isn't one outstanding candidate? two or three months it might have been the chancellor, but no longer. might have been the chancellor, but no loner. , , :, , :, no longer. there is very rarely an outstanding _ no longer. there is very rarely an outstanding candidate _ no longer. there is very rarely an outstanding candidate to - no longer. there is very rarely an outstanding candidate to replace| no longer. there is very rarely an l outstanding candidate to replace a leader until it becomes clear that the leader is going. margaret thatcher would not have been thought of as the outstanding candidate.

john major came as a surprise to everybody. untilthe john major came as a surprise to everybody. until the way is cleared, and until we know who the available people are, i don't think you can talk about an outstanding leader. cometh the man or woman, cometh the hour so to speak. cometh the man or woman, cometh the hour so to speak-— hour so to speak. what you think about the fact _ hour so to speak. what you think about the fact the _ hour so to speak. what you think about the fact the threshold - hour so to speak. what you think about the fact the threshold for i about the fact the threshold for triggering this no—confidence vote has now been reached? t triggering this no-confidence vote has now been reached?— triggering this no-confidence vote has now been reached? i hear that it was reach some _ has now been reached? i hear that it was reach some time _ has now been reached? i hear that it was reach some time ago, _ has now been reached? i hear that it was reach some time ago, before i has now been reached? i hear that it| was reach some time ago, before the jubilee weekend. it surprises me that it jubilee weekend. it surprises me thatitis jubilee weekend. it surprises me that it is taken the parliamentary conservative party to take so long to screw up their point of courage to screw up their point of courage to get to doing something about the prime minister who is demonstrably failing. it has been clear to his party now for more than a year that that was the case. he is not popular

amongst his backbenchers, but they have seemed very timid about doing anything... you have seemed very timid about doing an hini... :, , ., anything... you say it is failing and it has _ anything... you say it is failing and it has been _ anything. .. you say it is failing and it has been for— anything... you say it is failing and it has been for a _ anything... you say it is failing and it has been for a year, - anything... you say it is failing and it has been for a year, but| anything... you say it is failing i and it has been for a year, but it was days ago that the government announced a huge package of health for households across the country in the midst of the cost of living crisis. :, :, , :, the midst of the cost of living crisis. :, :, : , the midst of the cost of living crisis. :, :,, :, : , , :, crisis. that was a necessary move desiined crisis. that was a necessary move designed to _ crisis. that was a necessary move designed to meet _ crisis. that was a necessary move designed to meet a _ crisis. that was a necessary move designed to meet a palpable - crisis. that was a necessary move - designed to meet a palpable problem, and spearheaded really by the chancellor of the exchequer, sunak, it rather than the prime minister. :, :, �* minister. you don't give the prime minister. you don't give the prime minister credit _ minister. you don't give the prime minister credit for _ minister. you don't give the prime minister credit for that? _ minister. you don't give the prime minister credit for that? i - minister. you don't give the prime minister credit for that? i give - minister. you don't give the prime minister credit for that? i give the | minister credit for that? i give the prime minister _ minister credit for that? i give the prime minister credit _ minister credit for that? i give the prime minister credit for - minister credit for that? i give the prime minister credit for seeing i prime minister credit for seeing what everybody can see, that the people in britain are facing a very difficult summer and winter with energy price rises. i think that was plain to everybody, it was plain to the whole cabinet that something had

to be done. rishi sunak has basically drawn up a list of what has to be done and the prime minister has agreed to it, quite right, but any prime minister would, surely. right, but any prime minister would, surel . , ,, :, ,, :, :, right, but any prime minister would, surel . , ,, :,~ :, :, , surely. rishi sunak would have been a contender — surely. rishi sunak would have been a contender not _ surely. rishi sunak would have been a contender not that _ surely. rishi sunak would have been a contender not that long _ surely. rishi sunak would have been a contender not that long ago, - surely. rishi sunak would have been| a contender not that long ago, would you expect if we get to that point of a leadership contest, and it is and if, because we don't know what is going to happen, would you expect him to throw his hat in the ring? t hope you well, i think he is a serious front rank heavyweight whose capability is obvious. he is serious front rank heavyweight whose capability is obvious.— capability is obvious. he is not very conservative, _ capability is obvious. he is not very conservative, is - capability is obvious. he is not very conservative, is he, - capability is obvious. he is not very conservative, is he, he i capability is obvious. he is not i very conservative, is he, he puts capability is obvious. he is not - very conservative, is he, he puts up taxes. , :, :, , :, taxes. this ideology that you never ut u- taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes _ taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is _ taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is not _ taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is not so. _ taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is not so. you - taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is not so. you put - taxes. this ideology that you never put up taxes is not so. you put up| put up taxes is not so. you put up taxes when there is a war, when there is a huge crisis with cost of living, conservatives believe in

what works, they don't have these doctrinal positions to all government spending. this is a time to intervene, this is a time span, and i'm glad that rishi sunak is doing it. and i'm glad that rishi sunak is doin: it. :, ~ and i'm glad that rishi sunak is doin: it. :, ,, , and i'm glad that rishi sunak is doin: it. :, ~ , : :, doing it. thank you very much for talkini doing it. thank you very much for talkin: to doing it. thank you very much for talking to us- _ doing it. thank you very much for talking to us. let's _ doing it. thank you very much for talking to us. let's bring - doing it. thank you very much for talking to us. let's bring you - doing it. thank you very much for talking to us. let's bring you a i talking to us. let's bring you a weather forecast, talking to us. let's bring you a weatherforecast, it is talking to us. let's bring you a weather forecast, it is warm here, it is stopped raining. hello, it has been quite a murky start for most of us, particularly across eastern england. that's going to continue to move away leaving behind its cloud and some showers but brightening up towards the south—west. bright skies at times in northern ireland, but sunny conditions as cloud breaks across scotland with highs of 19 or 20 degrees. through this evening and overnight we will see the rain pushed through southern counties in england. more clients and spot of

rain across scotland and north—east england. overnight lows of about seven or 14 degrees. tomorrow we start off with showery rain in the south east that will eventually clear away. cloud and spots of rain across south—east scotland and northern england drifting a bit further west, we will see further showers developed and there will be sunny spells with temperatures ranging from 11 to 20 degrees.

this is bbc news. the headlines: the prime minister will face a vote of confidence in his leadership this evening. it means at least 15% of the parliamentary party — equivalent to 54 tory mps — have submitted a letter of no confidence in boris johnson's premiership. we have followed the rules that we have in place. i notified the prime minister yesterday that the threshold has been reached, and we agreed the timetable for a confidence vote to take place. former foreign secretary jeremy hunt, who has previously stood against borisjohnson for the conservative party leadership, says he'll vote against the pm. but at least 180

conservative mps — a majority — will have to vote against the prime minister if he's to leave office. several cabinet ministers have said they'll stand behind him. he has a very important mandate from the british— he has a very important mandate from the british people and to pretend that the — the british people and to pretend that the election results in 2019 was not — that the election results in 2019 was not about his leadership is fanciful — borisjohnson says he "welcomes the opportunity to make his case to mps". and i'm on college green this afternoon, this evening, maybe all night, who knows? we are talking to mostly conservative mps, some opposition politicians as well, to get their reaction to the vote tonight and to ask them how they will vote.

the prime minister is to address his mps in private in parliament this afternoon, ahead of a confidence vote on his leadership of the conservative party. it was confirmed this morning that the vote was triggered after at least 54 mps wrote to sir graham brady, who chairs the backbench 1922 committee, saying they no longer have confidence in mrjohnson. that vote will take place between six and eight this evening — only conservative mps will take part. there'll be a count straight away, with the result expected shortly afterwards. some conservative mps began to turn against borisjohnson after revelations about gatherings held during covid lockdowns, and the numbers gathered pace after sue gray's report into that partygate scandal. let's go live to victoria derbyshire.

we will go live to dominic rob, who is live in our studio this afternoon. how are you? how are you, what are the point? this is the last thing you need it. tt is what are the point? this is the last thing you need it.— thing you need it. it is a destruction _ thing you need it. it is a destruction but - thing you need it. it is a destruction but also - thing you need it. it is a destruction but also an | thing you need it. it is a _ destruction but also an opportunity because the speculative has been building and we will have this vote today. i think the choice will be very clear. colleagues will have a clear choice. we have a prime minister who has the big calls, i think, right on the vaccine roll—out, and getting the economy fired up. we have a plan for the cost of living, a plan for getting the nhs dealing with those patients after the pandemic. a law enforcement plan that i am working with with the home secretary, or we can step into a period of further massive uncertainty with what will be an internal conversation within the conservative party, rather than focusing on the issues that the

public expect us to be concerned over. that will be a mistake. i will be backing the prime minister and i think the majority of conservative mps will as well, because our constituents want us to get on with that job. constituents want us to get on with that 'ob. : , ,:, :, i. that job. and yet some of your colleagues. — that job. and yet some of your colleagues, knowing _ that job. and yet some of your colleagues, knowing all - that job. and yet some of your colleagues, knowing all that, i colleagues, knowing all that, perhaps even believing themselves that boris johnson perhaps even believing themselves that borisjohnson got some of the big calls right, knowing that there is a cost of living crisis, still at this point don't want borisjohnson to carry on. they don't think he is the leader the country needs, especially going into the next general election. tiff especially going into the next general election.— especially going into the next general election. of course, a minority has— general election. of course, a minority has triggered - general election. of course, a minority has triggered this i general election. of course, a i minority has triggered this vote. when those who have not been in the media criticising, and i'm not saying there is anything wrong with that, they are at liberty to do that. you'll hear from the rank and file, including the silent majority,

and the choice will be clear. we had and the choice will be clear. we had a period of sustained distractions and the partygate issue was significant, but we also had the conclusion of the police investigation, the conclusion of the sioux grade report, and it is time to draw a line in the sand on that. the primer list has apologised. what people and i constituents most expect is for us to be focusing on then and to put the distractions behind us. if we don't take that, we won't be talking about the cost of living, we won't be talking about the queen's speech agenda around skills or crime—fighting or social care. we will be talking amongst ourselves. that will be regarded by many of the public as self—indulgent at a time when we are less than two years from a general election. i will be backing the prime minister, i think you will see a large majority of parliamentary members of

the conservative party doing the same. ~ , :, �* , :, same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot. _ same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot, of— same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot, of course. _ same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot, of course. even - same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot, of course. even if - same. we will see, won't we? it is a secret ballot, of course. even if he i secret ballot, of course. even if he wins, it doesn't draw a line under it, does it? there will be members in the conservative party who still don't want him to be leader. they can't suddenly come out and pledge support unless they are total hypocrites, then you have another report coming later in the year. the line will never be drawn. tt is report coming later in the year. the line will never be drawn.— line will never be drawn. it is true of all the parties _ line will never be drawn. it is true of all the parties that _ line will never be drawn. it is true of all the parties that there - line will never be drawn. it is true of all the parties that there will i of all the parties that there will be critics. if you don't, there is something unnatural about it. but your right to say, i think this is a distinct moment. it is not something i would have wanted to see, but nonetheless because we have got it, it is a chance to resolve this. it is a chance to draw a line in the sand. that is why i will be talking to colleagues today. i have been talking to them in recent weeks, and i think the choice will be clear. i'm sure the prime minister will

speak to this later. either we get on with thejob, speak to this later. either we get on with the job, the cost of living challenge, supporting the ukrainians, the social reformers who want to introduce, whether on skills, the nhs, social care, fighting crime, the bill of rights, do we want to be spending the next period until the next election focused on those issues which the public care about russian mug or will be spent days, weeks, months, focused on a rather internal conversation amongst ourselves? i think the public will find that self—indulgent and that will influence and sway many mps with their decision later on today. hill their decision later on today. all their decision later on today. all the public might think, it is right to get rid of him, because we don't trust him. :, :, , trust him. some are made, but i think overwhelmingly, _ trust him. some are made, but i think overwhelmingly, given - trust him. some are made, but i think overwhelmingly, given the | think overwhelmingly, given the majority at the last election, i think people expect us to be focused on delivering on the promises that we made also as i say, he has got

the big calls right. you we made also as i say, he has got the big calls right.— we made also as i say, he has got the big calls right. you keep saying that, i'm the big calls right. you keep saying that. i'm sorry _ the big calls right. you keep saying that, i'm sorry to _ the big calls right. you keep saying that, i'm sorry to enter, _ the big calls right. you keep saying that, i'm sorry to enter, because i that, i'm sorry to enter, because all of your colleagues keep saying that. some of the calls he got right, not all of them. you have to acknowledge the billions wasted on test and trace, the billions that you have written off from fraud through the fellow scheme. the fact that you allowed elderly people to be discharged from hospitals without being tested for covid before going back to their care homes and then seeding the illness throughout homes up seeding the illness throughout homes up and down the country. tt is seeding the illness throughout homes up and down the country.— up and down the country. it is easy to criticise — up and down the country. it is easy to criticise from _ up and down the country. it is easy to criticise from the _ up and down the country. it is easy to criticise from the luxury - up and down the country. it is easy to criticise from the luxury of - to criticise from the luxury of being an armchair commentator or media commentator... t’m being an armchair commentator or media commentator. . ._ media commentator... i'm not criticising. _ media commentator... i'm not criticising, i'm _ media commentator... i'm not criticising, i'm just _ media commentator... i'm not criticising, i'm just saying - media commentator... i'm not| criticising, i'm just saying there are a lot of because you didn't get right. if you are being honest with the voters, you might also mention the voters, you might also mention the big calls where you made mistakes. the big calls where you made mistakes-— the big calls where you made mistakes. :, , :, mistakes. your usual partisan stealth about _ mistakes. your usual partisan stealth about all _ mistakes. your usual partisan stealth about all of _ mistakes. your usual partisan stealth about all of this, - mistakes. your usual partisan | stealth about all of this, that's fine. but i would say, at the message i get is that people recognise that we went through a

pandemic the likes of which we have never seen before. notjust the health side of things, and there were challenges, of course there were challenges, of course there were lessons that we need to learn from, but also there are some big strategic choices. on the vaccine roll—out, on the decision lastjuly to open up the economy, big things which will affect the lives, the livelihoods of so many people. on the fellow furlough scheme, i think the fellow furlough scheme, i think the prime and got that right. it is the prime and got that right. it is the second fastest economy in the g7. we have a packed agenda, the plans to take matters forward to deal with the cost of living challenges for those who are feeling the pinch, who are struggling to make ends meet. all things are described, fighting crime, other nhs reforms as we strengthen the nhs after this terrible pandemic. anything which takes us off those priorities into an internal party

political conversation will feel to many like a big distraction. but is what people will be focused on, that choice, when the vote is held later. forgive me for pushing back on you, butjust because i asked questions you don't like, it doesn't mean i'm partisan. i want to ask you about the margin, the maths tonight. if mr johnson wins, just the margin of victory matter or not? t johnson wins, just the margin of victory matter or not?— johnson wins, just the margin of victory matter or not? i won't get into a numbers _ victory matter or not? i won't get into a numbers game, _ victory matter or not? i won't get into a numbers game, but - victory matter or not? i won't get into a numbers game, but of - victory matter or not? i won't get - into a numbers game, but of course, precisely because we want to put this behind us, i think i will be encouraging every conservative mp to focus on that choice that i described, getting on with their job, what we have delivered and what we have still got to do, our constituents' priorities and not allowing ourselves to slip into this internal conversation which will feel to many like a navel—gazing, self—indulgent thing at a time when

we are two years from the next election. every vote will matter and we will be talking to colleagues, i'm sure they will be many conversations in the hours that followed, distilling down that choice and focusing people's minds on what matters, the matters that matter to the voters.— matter to the voters. what do you think about _ matter to the voters. what do you think about jeremy _ matter to the voters. what do you think about jeremy hunt _ matter to the voters. what do you think about jeremy hunt firing - matter to the voters. what do you think about jeremy hunt firing the j think aboutjeremy hunt firing the starting pistol on his leadership campaign? tt starting pistol on his leadership cam-rain? , :, , starting pistol on his leadership cam-rain? , :, starting pistol on his leadership campaign?— starting pistol on his leadership cam-rain? , :, campaign? it shows that we will end u n campaign? it shows that we will end u- havini campaign? it shows that we will end up having this _ campaign? it shows that we will end up having this conversation - campaign? it shows that we will end up having this conversation about i up having this conversation about the conservatives, about who, if we end up in a leadership contest, who is the right person to take over the reins? has anyone got plan? all of these things will feel very internal to the real issues that people are facing in their lives. that is a

mistake in all of this will stop i won't criticise anyone individually, thatis won't criticise anyone individually, that is not how i approach politics. but it accentuates that choice that we have. do we go down an internal conversation within ourselves, which identical public will find appetising. they will find it self—indulgent. tt appetising. they will find it self-indulgent.— appetising. they will find it self-indulgent. appetising. they will find it self-indulient. :, , self-indulgent. if you do end up in a leadership _ self-indulgent. if you do end up in a leadership contest, _ self-indulgent. if you do end up in a leadership contest, will- self-indulgent. if you do end up in a leadership contest, will you - self-indulgent. if you do end up in a leadership contest, will you be i a leadership contest, will you be throwing your hat into the ring? h0. throwing your hat into the ring? no, and i'm not — throwing your hat into the ring? tjrrl, and i'm not getting into any hypotheticals either. you and i'm not getting into any hypotheticals either. you said you wouldn't, hypotheticals either. you said you wouldn't. you _ hypotheticals either. you said you wouldn't, you wouldn't _ hypotheticals either. you said you wouldn't, you wouldn't stand - hypotheticals either. you said you wouldn't, you wouldn't stand if i wouldn't, you wouldn't stand if there was a leadership contest? h0. there was a leadership contest? no, i am standing _ there was a leadership contest? tjfr, i am standing behind our lead up today. we will then go on and win the next election.— the next election. thank you. our political _ the next election. thank you. our political correspondence | the next election. thank you. | our political correspondence is back. what is the latest? taste our political correspondence is back. what is the latest? we have

had these reactions _ back. what is the latest? we have had these reactions coming - back. what is the latest? we have had these reactions coming from i had these reactions coming from given bits of the conservative party. i can take you through some of those. i think the one you just asked aboutjeremy hunt coming out and saying that he is not supporting the prime minister, that is significant, because he is a major figure, a senior cabinet minister, held senior cabinet posts. he has said that, having been trusted with power, we know we are not giving the british people the leadership they deserve, not offering integrity, competence and vision. because we are no long trusted, by the electorate, we are set to lose the next general election. he is clear in his mind about that. so he says that he will be voting for change today. that reflects what a lot of mps who are coming out against boris johnson are thinking. for them, a lot of this is an electoral

calculation, what they are seeing in their constituencies, fearing for their constituencies, fearing for their own seats in the next election. their own seats in the next election-— their own seats in the next election. ~ _ :, election. we will say goodbye to viewers on _ election. we will say goodbye to viewers on bbc _ election. we will say goodbye to viewers on bbc world _ election. we will say goodbye to viewers on bbc world and - election. we will say goodbye to viewers on bbc world and bbc. election. we will say goodbye to i viewers on bbc world and bbc two. carry on, yes. there is the others, which is the cabinet ministers will stop you have had a number of backbench mps coming out to support the prime minister. cabinet ministers, of course was not then seniorfigures as cabinet ministers, of course was not then senior figures as well. richey rishi sunak has been coming out in support of the prime and, saying similar things to the deputy list a few minutes ago. liz truss saying

that they need to support him as well. borisjohnson has sent a letter to all of the mps today, quite a long letter, nearly three pages. he goes through much of what we have been hearing said this morning, saying things he has got right, pointing to his win in the general election, saying it is time to put things behind us, focus on what the electorate one. interestingly, he has signed each one by hand. we are told he has added personal comments to some mps, spending about an hour of his day so farjust signing those letters and getting them out there. that is his pitch, which he will be making in—person later. pitch, which he will be making in-person later.— pitch, which he will be making in-person later. pitch, which he will be making in-erson later. �*, :, ,, :, :, ~ in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might — in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might have _ in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might have had _ in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might have had one _ in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might have had one of - in-person later. let's talk to an mp who might have had one of those i who might have had one of those letters. hello. have you had your

letters. hello. have you had your letterfrom letters. hello. have you had your letter from the prime? i letterfrom the prime? i did indeed. letter from the prime? i did indeed.— letter from the prime? i did indeed. , :, :, i did indeed. did it have extra notes on _ i did indeed. did it have extra notes on it? _ i did indeed. did it have extra notes on it? no, _ i did indeed. did it have extra notes on it? no, there - i did indeed. did it have extra notes on it? no, there is - i did indeed. did it have extra notes on it? no, there is no i i did indeed. did it have extra - notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he _ notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he will— notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he will know— notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he will know i _ notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he will know i will- notes on it? no, there is no need, i'm sure he will know i will be - i'm sure he will know i will be supporting him. i'm sure he will know i will be supporting him-— i'm sure he will know i will be supporting him. why will you be supporting _ supporting him. why will you be supporting him? _ supporting him. why will you be supporting him? i _ supporting him. why will you be supporting him? i don't - supporting him. why will you be supporting him? i don't think. supporting him. why will you be supporting him? i don't think it | supporting him. why will you be i supporting him? i don't think it is in the best— supporting him? i don't think it is in the best interest _ supporting him? i don't think it is in the best interest of _ supporting him? i don't think it is in the best interest of the - supporting him? i don't think it isj in the best interest of the country to have this vote of no confidence and if he were to lose tonight, we would be six or seven weeks with a vacuum at the heart of government at a time when the government should be focusing on the cost of living issues, the nhs, the ukrainian situation and scores of other more important issues. the situation and scores of other more important issues. the government has been t in: important issues. the government has been trying to — important issues. the government has been trying to focus _ important issues. the government has been trying to focus on _ important issues. the government has been trying to focus on those - been trying to focus on those issues, it might say, but also, according to one of your colleagues, andrew bridge and, a lot of energy is spent trying to keep this prime minister in office. t is spent trying to keep this prime minister in office.— minister in office. iagree. idon't defend the _ minister in office. iagree. idon't defend the actions _ minister in office. iagree. idon't defend the actions that _ minister in office. iagree. idon't defend the actions that took - minister in office. i agree. i don't| defend the actions that took place

in downing street, they were irresponsible and unacceptable. on balance, we have a situation where we have a prime minister who has secured a lot of votes for the conservatives because of his personality. a lot of votes cast at the last election were four boris johnson. forthat the last election were four boris johnson. for that reason, the final decision should rest with the electorate when the next election comes. for now, we should deliver our manifesto. comes. for now, we should deliver our manifesto-— comes. for now, we should deliver our manifesto. you know that some of our manifesto. you know that some of your colleagues _ our manifesto. you know that some of your colleagues think _ our manifesto. you know that some of your colleagues think you _ our manifesto. you know that some of your colleagues think you are - your colleagues think you are unlikely to win their next election if borisjohnson is still the leader of the country. if boris johnson is still the leader of the country-— if boris johnson is still the leader of the country. that doesn't come true to me _ of the country. that doesn't come true to me on the streets of - true to me on the streets of cleethorpes and the surrounding villages. there are lots of people, particularly those who lost loved ones during the pandemic, who understandably feel better and angry about that situation. —— feel

bitter. we have to move on now, and it was only mentioned on a handful of occasions. a lot of the e—mails i am receiving are from known anti—conservative voters. tt am receiving are from known anti-conservative voters. it will be interesting. _ anti-conservative voters. it will be interesting. if _ anti-conservative voters. it will be interesting, if he _ anti-conservative voters. it will be interesting, if he wins _ anti-conservative voters. it will be interesting, if he wins tonight, - anti-conservative voters. it will be j interesting, if he wins tonight, and jacob rees mogg told us earlier, you know, 180 is enough, just needs one extra vote, then he is in. and then he loses potentially two by—elections at the end of this month. then the chatter will start again. month. then the chatter will start aiain. : :, , :, month. then the chatter will start aiain. : :, :, :, again. the chatter will start again, but the chatter _ again. the chatter will start again, but the chatter always _ again. the chatter will start again, but the chatter always starts - again. the chatter will start again, but the chatter always starts after| but the chatter always starts after by—elections, that governments have a habit of losing. it is not unusual for governments to lose by—election. that is not a determining factor. governments do lose by—elections, particular mid—term, but there was a conservative mp who had been there

for many years who had a 24,000 majority. if that is overturned by the lib dems... tt majority. if that is overturned by the lib dems. . ._ the lib dems... it would be staggering- _ the lib dems... it would be staggering. but _ the lib dems... it would be staggering. but they - the lib dems... it would be staggering. but they have i the lib dems... it would be - staggering. but they have been staggering. but they have been staggering results before with 20,000 plus majority is overturned. i would not pretend it won't be a serious blow. it would be. we should be hanging onto seats like that. in the great scheme of things, should that be the determining factor question mackay don't thing so. thank you for talking to us. let's hear from another conservative mp. we will never know how many letters he received. 54, at least, to trigger the confidence vote in the prime minister tonight. his name is sir graham brady. the threshold of 15% seeking a vote of confidence in the prime and has

been passed, therefore the vote will take place within the rules of the 1922 committee. that vote will take place this evening in the house of commons between 6pm and 8pm, and we will announce the results shortly there after. they will be a writers or proxy votes for any colleagues who cannot be or proxy votes for any colleagues who cannot he hasn't in—person in westminster, and we will notify colleagues of those arrangements in the near future. colleagues of those arrangements in the nearfuture. i notified the primer yesterday that the threshold had been reached. agreed the timetable for a confidence vote to take place, and he shared my view, which is also in line with the rules that we have in place, but that vote should happen as soon as could reasonably take place, and that would be today. it is always an open invitation to the prime minister to speak to the committee. if he wishes to, we will arrange that meeting this afternoon. t’m to, we will arrange that meeting this afternoon.— to, we will arrange that meeting this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed- — this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed- our _ this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules _ this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules say _ this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules say it - this afternoon. i'm not surprised by the speed. our rules say it should i the speed. our rules say it should be done as soon as is reasonably

possible. tn be done as soon as is reasonably ossible. :: ' i~ be done as soon as is reasonably ossible. ::'j~ , possible. in 2018, we spoke the evenini possible. in 2018, we spoke the evening before _ possible. in 2018, we spoke the evening before and _ possible. in 2018, we spoke the evening before and we - possible. in 2018, we spoke the evening before and we help - possible. in 2018, we spoke the i evening before and we help about possible. in 2018, we spoke the - evening before and we help about the next day. i suppose it is in line with recent precedent. i suppose it is good for everybody to get these things out of the way as quickly and efficiently as possible. i won't speculate about leadership elections. we are holding a vote of confidence and it will take place today, and you will have a result this evening. a confidence vote obviously will provide a clear answer. the party will have confidence in the leadership or not. that is the question that will be before our colleagues today. technically, it is possible for rules to be changed, but at present there will be a period of grace.

let's talk to a political commentator at the guardian. olivia utley is with me too. they are 20 persuade as many conservative mps as possible. thea; conservative mps as possible. they are travelling _ conservative mps as possible. they are travelling back _ conservative mps as possible. tt9: are travelling back from all conservative mps as possible. tt9:1 are travelling back from all across the uk and have been told. it is difficult to get everyone in the same room. there was a meeting called to try to get everyone on the same page, rehearse the lines of arguments to convince some of people who are wavering. bind arguments to convince some of people who are wavering.— who are wavering. and the whips are? the are in who are wavering. and the whips are? they are in charge _ who are wavering. and the whips are? they are in charge of— who are wavering. and the whips are? they are in charge of discipline, - they are in charge of discipline, they will be making sure that mps do what the government wants them to do. they are probably collating a spreadsheet, making sure they know who is voting with the prime

minister, they will be making sure that all of those on the government payroll, ministerial aides, ministers and cabinet ministers, will vote as expected. there is no way that mps can prove that, you are not allowed to take a picture of your ballot paper. there are some of those on the payroll who put in letters as well and it is interesting because they face a very awkward silence across the day. {line awkward silence across the day. one of them has — awkward silence across the day. one of them has resigned, john penrose, who we spoke to earlier. there are people who were on the government payroll who haven't resigned from theirjobs, graph put in a letter of no confidence to sir graham brady. nobody knows apart from sir graham and some mps admit that they are the most duplicitous party in the world,

so... :, , :, most duplicitous party in the world, so... :,, :, :, most duplicitous party in the world, so... :, :, :, , _ :, so... people are not too happy about what happened _ so... people are not too happy about what happened in — so... people are not too happy about what happened in the _ so... people are not too happy about what happened in the report. - so... people are not too happy about what happened in the report. they i what happened in the report. they feel there — what happened in the report. they feel there is a vacuum in the heart of government. borisjohnson is so distracted — of government. borisjohnson is so distracted by crisis after crisis, that— distracted by crisis after crisis, that he — distracted by crisis after crisis, that he is— distracted by crisis after crisis, that he is not able to do anything he gives— that he is not able to do anything he gives sweets to anyone he sees. more _ he gives sweets to anyone he sees. more money for the red wall, then says he _ more money for the red wall, then says he will— more money for the red wall, then says he will be a low tax government. our readers, the ones who have _ government. our readers, the ones who have been writing in, seem to feel that _ who have been writing in, seem to feel that he — who have been writing in, seem to feel that he just has lost track of what _ feel that he just has lost track of what it— feel that he just has lost track of what it means to be a conservative prime _ what it means to be a conservative prime minister. their issue is that there _ prime minister. their issue is that there is— prime minister. their issue is that there is no— prime minister. their issue is that there is no replacement, obviously there is no replacement, obviously the name — there is no replacement, obviously the name going around today is jeremy— the name going around today is jeremy hunt, but whether he would be this conservative leader in the small— this conservative leader in the small c— this conservative leader in the small c sense of the word is remaining to be seen. all different factions— remaining to be seen. all different factions of— remaining to be seen. all different factions of the conservative party are turning against borisjohnson,

notjust— are turning against borisjohnson, notjustjesse normans on are turning against borisjohnson, not just jesse normans on the are turning against borisjohnson, notjustjesse normans on the party, further— notjustjesse normans on the party, further to— notjustjesse normans on the party, further to the left, but also the small— further to the left, but also the small state thatcherites who think that he _ small state thatcherites who think that he has not done what he promised _ that he has not done what he promised to do. if that he has not done what he promised to do.— that he has not done what he promised to do. that he has not done what he romised to do. , :, promised to do. if he wins the vote toni . ht, promised to do. if he wins the vote tonight. and _ promised to do. if he wins the vote tonight, and some _ promised to do. if he wins the vote tonight, and some journalists - promised to do. if he wins the vote tonight, and some journalists feell tonight, and some journalists feel they him to, the top team also they expect him to win, what happens in terms of who get what's job in a week's time? terms of who get what's 'ob in a week-s tiniest terms of who get what's 'ob in a week's time? :, ,:, :, , ~ , week's time? there are some tory mps that say that — week's time? there are some tory mps that say that even _ week's time? there are some tory mps that say that even if _ week's time? there are some tory mps that say that even if he _ week's time? there are some tory mps that say that even if he wins _ week's time? there are some tory mps that say that even if he wins this - that say that even if he wins this election, which is exacted to do, thenit election, which is exacted to do, then it could be by quite a slim margin, he might have to do a reshuffle, to move out people who will have voted against him and to restore discipline. we have seen a

number of these, and we might see another of those to make sure that their ship is a lot steadier. not all conservative mps will be happy with that and they will not go quietly. you have the parliamentary committee investigating all of this, dragging on for months and months. the issue won't necessarily go away just because borisjohnson wants it to. just because boris johnson wants it to. :, : :, just because boris johnson wants it to. :, ,, :, :, :, to. how can he know who has voted aiainst to. how can he know who has voted against him? _ to. how can he know who has voted against him? government - to. how can he know who has voted against him? government whips i to. how can he know who has voted | against him? government whips and those who are _ against him? government whips and those who are in _ against him? government whips and those who are in the _ against him? government whips and those who are in the so _ against him? government whips and those who are in the so called - those who are in the so called shadow whipping group are probably spending the day hiding in corridors, ticking off their spreadsheets, making sure they know how everyone will vote, gathering as much intel as they can from mps about their colleagues, saying, do they really backers? we have heard some suspicions they might not. that is what they will be doing. it is not an exact science, but that is how this place works.— how this place works. obviously boris johnson _ how this place works. obviously boris johnson used _ how this place works. obviously boris johnson used to _ how this place works. obviously boris johnson used to write - how this place works. obviously boris johnson used to write a i

how this place works. obviously - boris johnson used to write a column borisjohnson used to write a column for your newspaper every week, do you think he will still be prime and in a year's time? t you think he will still be prime and in a year's time?— in a year's time? i think not. just from the president _ in a year's time? i think not. just from the president we _ in a year's time? i think not. just from the president we have - in a year's time? i think not. just from the president we have seen j from the president we have seen before _ from the president we have seen before from prime minister is you have _ before from prime minister is you have been— before from prime minister is you have been through this leadership challenge, even if they win, they limp _ challenge, even if they win, they limp on — challenge, even if they win, they limp on for— challenge, even if they win, they limp on for a while and then they no. limp on for a while and then they go boris— limp on for a while and then they go. borisjohnson might even be in a weaker— go. borisjohnson might even be in a weaker position than theresa may in 2018. _ weaker position than theresa may in 2018. for— weaker position than theresa may in 2018, for her it was about exit, she was hamstrung and struggling, but she had _ was hamstrung and struggling, but she had allies who had been loyal to her for— she had allies who had been loyal to her for years, she had allies who had been loyal to herforyears, a she had allies who had been loyal to her for years, a long career in the conservative _ her for years, a long career in the conservative party, a real conservative party, a real conservative party, a real conservative party person, and she had lots _ conservative party person, and she had lots of— conservative party person, and she had lots of people who were worried about _ had lots of people who were worried about a _ had lots of people who were worried about a hard brexit and wanted her vision _ about a hard brexit and wanted her vision for— about a hard brexit and wanted her vision for it — about a hard brexit and wanted her vision for it. she had a clique. boris — vision for it. she had a clique. boris is — vision for it. she had a clique. boris is looking pretty lonely and pretty— boris is looking pretty lonely and pretty friendless. he's not really a conservative party man, his career has been _ conservative party man, his career has been a — conservative party man, his career has been a bit conservative party man, his career has been a hit all over the place. he has— has been a hit all over the place. he has some personal friends, but

i'm really— he has some personal friends, but i'm really struggling to think of any _ i'm really struggling to think of any. there is a genuine danger that he goes _ any. there is a genuine danger that he goes today, a genuine possibility. he goes today, a genuine possibility-— he goes today, a genuine possibility. he goes today, a genuine ossibili . :, :, :, possibility. say that again, you think there _ possibility. say that again, you think there is _ possibility. say that again, you think there is a _ possibility. say that again, you think there is a genuine - think there is a genuine possibility? t think there is a genuine possibility?— think there is a genuine possibility? think there is a genuine ossibili ? :, possibility? i agree with the conventional _ possibility? i agree with the conventional wisdom - possibility? i agree with the conventional wisdom that i possibility? i agree with the | conventional wisdom that he possibility? i agree with the - conventional wisdom that he will win, conventional wisdom that he will win. but— conventional wisdom that he will win, but not convincingly. there is a possibility — win, but not convincingly. there is a possibility. do you have the willingness to send in a letter to say you — willingness to send in a letter to say you have no confidence? now you are faced _ say you have no confidence? now you are faced with the possibility, do you have — are faced with the possibility, do you have faith in borisjohnson to lead this— you have faith in borisjohnson to lead this government forward? i think— lead this government forward? i think it — lead this government forward? i think it will be quite hard for mps to say. _ think it will be quite hard for mps to say. yes. — think it will be quite hard for mps to say, yes, we do have that faith. there _ to say, yes, we do have that faith. there is— to say, yes, we do have that faith. there is a — to say, yes, we do have that faith. there is a slim possibility that he is a friendless man and he could 'ust is a friendless man and he could just go — is a friendless man and he could 'ust io. :, ~' , is a friendless man and he could 'ust io. :, ,, y:, , : just go. ok, thank you very much. thank you — just go. ok, thank you very much. thank you for— just go. ok, thank you very much. thank you for talking _ just go. ok, thank you very much. thank you for talking to _ just go. ok, thank you very much.

thank you for talking to us. - looking at the weather picture this afternoon, we have a mixture around. some of you will see some sunshine, glorious start across western scotland to northern ireland, and also south—west england. you see some holes in the cloud, but otherwise across much of england and wales in particular, it has been a different story. this cloud in eastern areas has been thick enough to bring some outbreaks of light rain. we have had some of that in hull earlier today. where that sticks, for some across the midlands and east anglia, temperatures will struggle this afternoon, properly reaching highs of 13 or 14. quite a chilly day. for west scotland and south—west england, southern wales, in the sunshine, it will feel warm, with temperatures reaching highs of 20 or 21 celsius. the warmest weather will be in western scotland.

overnight, some patches of rain in south—west england and areas, but otherwise a dry night with some clear spells. temperatures could dip to six or seven celsius in the north—east. variable cloud to start off with, some patches of rain for eastern and south—eastern england, but otherwise dry with some sunny spells developing. some showers popping up across england and wales come about not too many. where the sunshine comes out, it will be a much warmer day, with temperatures quite widely into the high teens to low 20s. tuesday night, we then look towards the atlantic to see this band of rain move in across all parts of the country. there will be some strong winds through wednesday is that rain band clears with showers following. wendy for wales and south—west england, near gale force here as the rain and cloud extends its way northwards. a big drop in temperatures in scotland,

swapping sunshine for cloudier conditions, with rain at times, just 15 degrees also in glasgow. towards the end of the week, quite unsettled with a deep area of low pressure, pushing weather france across the country, with some strong winds expected in north—western areas all parts will see some showers for a time as we had through friday, but some sunny breaks. hello, we are talking to another conservative mp right now. he is called paul burstow and you are going to be voting for your prime minister? :, �* , ., going to be voting for your prime minister? :, �* , :, ., minister? that's right, i am going to be supporting _ minister? that's right, i am going to be supporting the _ minister? that's right, i am going to be supporting the prime - minister? that's right, i am going i to be supporting the prime minister. only two and a half years ago he delivered a record majority of 80 seats. that was an extraordinary achievement. two and a half years later we are looking to get rid of him. i don't think that is right. we need to back the prime minister. he has faced some extraordinary

challenges, getting brexit through when the parliamentary system was deadlocked, he managed to getjudds into people's arms. —— jabs. he stood shoulder to shoulder with the people of ukraine, leading the international effort to draw condemnation on president putin. i understand there are challenges. the cost of living challenge, we need to grow the economy, deal with the nhs backlog. and of course we need to make r make streets safer. but i think the prime minister, boris johnson, is the right man for that. those are the priorities and that is what people in peterborough telling me. t what people in peterborough telling me. :, , :, ~ :, what people in peterborough telling me. i have been talking to some of our me. i have been talking to some of your colleagues _ me. i have been talking to some of your colleagues were _ me. i have been talking to some of your colleagues were not _ me. i have been talking to some of| your colleagues were not supporting him and former conservative politicians were not supporting it. it is not really about all of those things, it is about him, it is about his character, his behaviour and his judgments when it comes to personal behaviour? tt is judgments when it comes to personal behaviour? , , :, , :, judgments when it comes to personal behaviour? , , :, :, behaviour? it is up to everyone to make their _ behaviour? it is up to everyone to make their own _ behaviour? it is up to everyone to make their own decisions. - behaviour? it is up to everyone to make their own decisions. i -

behaviour? it is up to everyone to make their own decisions. i am i behaviour? it is up to everyone to | make their own decisions. i am not going to engage in blue on blue attacks. there are those who have never been reconciled to brexit. there are those who have never been reconciled to him as prime minister. it is their right to do so. we are a democracy, a parliamentary party. i hope after this we can draw a line under this. hope after this we can draw a line underthis. i hope after this we can draw a line under this. i wish we weren't having this vote. once it is done we can draw a line under it and move on and focus on the priorities, growing the economy, dealing with our nhs backlog and making our street say. will you be able to move on? you have the privileges committee report coming down the line. it is not over, is it? coming down the line. it is not over. is it?— coming down the line. it is not over, is it? ~ , , over, is it? the prime minister is an extraordinary _ over, is it? the prime minister is an extraordinary politician. - over, is it? the prime minister is an extraordinary politician. he i over, is it? the prime minister is an extraordinary politician. he is| an extraordinary politician. he is one of the most extraordinary electoral advantages we've got. he is still very popular in my constituency of peterborough. i spoke to scores of people over the jubilee bank holiday weekend and not one of them came to me and said —— told me to send a letter in. this is about governing well in dealing with

those chances. it is about winning elections. the prime minister has proved he is an election winner. that is what we need to focus on. i hope after tonight we can unite and focus on defeating the real enemy, keir starmer. he focus on defeating the real enemy, keir starmer-_ keir starmer. he is not a winner in north shropshire, _ keir starmer. he is not a winner in north shropshire, chesham - keir starmer. he is not a winner in north shropshire, chesham and i north shropshire, chesham and amersham, it looks dodgy in wakefield, it looks potentially like you might lose a 24,000 seat majority in devon well, i think mid term we have always seen by elections as a means of people, as a free hit, if you like.— free hit, if you like. quite a lot of governments _ free hit, if you like. quite a lot of governments lose _ free hit, if you like. quite a lot of governments lose by - free hit, if you like. quite a lot. of governments lose by elections. free hit, if you like. quite a lot - of governments lose by elections. it is an extraordinary thing. a government wins or takes a seat at a by—election, as happened in hartlepool. but a real mid—term judgment were the local elections. in my constituency we gained a seat from the labour party. you in my constituency we gained a seat from the labour party.— from the labour party. you lost westminster _ from the labour party. you lost westminster and _ from the labour party. you lost westminster and wandsworth i from the labour party. you lost i westminster and wandsworth and brent. but we won haroye... we can trade times. t brent. but we won haroye... we can

trade times-— trade times. i think if you look at that result. _ trade times. i think if you look at that result, mid-term, _ trade times. i think if you look at that result, mid-term, the - trade times. i think if you look at that result, mid-term, the locall that result, mid—term, the local elections, with all the challenges the prime minister has faced and faced down, that was a very good result and i am very happy with the way the prime minister is playing in my constituency in peterborough, and thatis my constituency in peterborough, and that is why i will be supporting him today. that is why i will be supporting him toda . :, ~ that is why i will be supporting him toda . :, ,, :, that is why i will be supporting him toda. :, :, :, ,, that is why i will be supporting him toda . :, ~' :, :, ~' :, that is why i will be supporting him toda . :, ,, :, :, ,, :, , today. thank you for talking to us. paul lturstow. _ today. thank you for talking to us. paul burstow, thank _ today. thank you for talking to us. paul burstow, thank you. - today. thank you for talking to us. paul burstow, thank you. more i paul burstow, thank you. more reaction from conservative mps and it's time to go back to the studio. thank you. the prime minister will face a vote of confidence in his leadership this evening. it follows anger over sue gray's report detailing lawbreaking in downing street. the vote was triggered after at least 54 conservative mps submitted letters of no confidence. ifjohnson wins tonight, and at least 180 mps vote in favour of him, he will remain as leader and be immune from another no confidence vote for a year.

number 10 sastohnson "welcomes the opportunity to make his case to mps" and the vote is "a chance to end months of speculation" his spokesman has been speaking and said he will not be distracted by the confidence vote. it was also asked about the resignation ofjohn penrose, the anti—corruption tsar. the prime minister's spokesman said he disagrees with you claim the prime minister is broken the ministerial code, and the prime minister will respond tojohn minister will respond to john penrose's minister will respond tojohn penrose's resignation letter in the normal way. victoria did speak to john penrose earlier and she asked him why he had resigned. so, very straightforwardly, as of the middle of last week, just before her majesty's platinum jubilee, the middle of last week, just before her majesty's platinumjubilee, the her majesty's platinum jubilee, the prime her majesty's platinumjubilee, the prime minister replied for the very first time to the sue gray report in terms of the ministerial code. no one had really seen what he had to say about that. i'm here frayed his replyjust say about that. i'm here frayed his reply just wasn't very good. lsiisl’hat reply 'ust wasn't very good. what was reply just wasn't very good. what was the bit _ reply just wasn't very good. what was the bit you _ reply just wasn't very good. what was the bit you objected - replyjust wasn't very good. what was the bit you objected to? reply just wasn't very good. what was the bit you objected to? it i reply just wasn't very good. what i was the bit you objected to? it was was the bit you ob'ected to? it was more about _ was the bit you ob'ected to? it was more about what _ was the bit you objected to? it was more about what he _ was the bit you objected to? it was more about what he didn't - was the bit you objected to? it was more about what he didn't say. -

was the bit you objected to? it was | more about what he didn't say. the sue gray report is very serious set of criticisms about leadership. it said that goes right to the top, that means the prime minister. one of the key principles underlying and running like a stick of rock through the ministerial code is leadership, thatis the ministerial code is leadership, that is one of the seven normal —— nolan principles in public life. we didn't address that at all. the difficulty is, broadly speaking, if you read the sue gray report you can't reach any other conclusion than that he has breached without fundamental principle. she said so in terms. therefore, he must have breached the ministerial code and thatis breached the ministerial code and that is normally a resignation issue. it should be a resignation issue. it should be a resignation issue for him. it is certainly a resignation issue for me. i don't say this with any degree of delight because i think he has done some amazing things, which i am personally very grateful for, but none of the good things he has done necessarily justify none of the good things he has done necessarilyjustify breaking the necessarily justify breaking the ministerial code, necessarilyjustify breaking the ministerial code, which he himself has said is one of the underpinning two of good government and integrity

in government in this country. so for you this is about his character and his behaviour?— and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly _ and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly by — and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly by the _ and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly by the fact _ and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly by the fact of - and his behaviour? yes, but it is particularly by the fact of the - and his behaviour? yes, but it is| particularly by the fact of the sue gray report has said he has broken the ministerial code and that means he has to go. t}t(. the ministerial code and that means he has to go— he has to go. ok. and you waited until today _ he has to go. ok. and you waited until today because. . . ? _ he has to go. ok. and you waited untiltoday because...? so, - he has to go. ok. and you waited until today because. . . ? so, the i until today because. . . ? so, the rel to until today because. . . ? so, the reply to the _ until today because. . . ? so, the reply to the sue _ until today because. . . ? so, the reply to the sue gray _ until today because. . . ? so, the reply to the sue gray report - reply to the sue gray report addressing the points about the ministerial code came outjust ministerial code came out just before ministerial code came outjust before the platinum jubilee. it clearly would not have been right to make any sort of comment about it during the platinum jubilee. make any sort of comment about it during the platinumjubilee. i make any sort of comment about it during the platinum jubilee. i wrote the letter yesterday before i knew there was going to be a vote of confidence today. i don't think it would be right to hold off either. having reached that conclusion, it would not have been honourable or right to do. do would not have been honourable or right to do-— right to do. do you happen to know how many letters _ right to do. do you happen to know how many letters graham - right to do. do you happen to know how many letters graham brady i right to do. do you happen to know| how many letters graham brady has received? t how many letters graham brady has received? :, �* , :, , received? i don't. he is a very careful person. _ received? i don't. he is a very careful person. you _ received? i don't. he is a very careful person. you talk- received? i don't. he is a very careful person. you talk to i careful person. you talk to colleagues. _ careful person. you talk to colleagues. you _ careful person. you talk to colleagues. you will- careful person. you talk to colleagues. you will know| careful person. you talk to - colleagues. you will know who has submitted one? t colleagues. you will know who has submitted one?— colleagues. you will know who has submitted one? i don't know. i don't know of anybody _ submitted one? i don't know. i don't know of anybody who _ submitted one? i don't know. i don't know of anybody who is _ submitted one? i don't know. i don't know of anybody who is organising i know of anybody who is organising this. if they are, they haven't organised it with me, let me put it that way. tt

organised it with me, let me put it that wa . �* :, , organised it with me, let me put it thatwa. , that way. if boris johnson wins toniiht, that way. if boris johnson wins tonight. will— that way. if boris johnson wins tonight, will there _ that way. if boris johnson wins tonight, will there be - that way. if boris johnson wins tonight, will there be a - that way. if boris johnson wins tonight, will there be a period| that way. if boris johnson wins i tonight, will there be a period of silence from people like yourself and other critics within the party? i think it will depend what the results are one way or another. jacob rees—mogg, brexit opportunities minister, said if borisjohnson wins by one, he continues, he carries on, that is a democratic vote. 180 is all you need. : democratic vote. 180 is all you need.�* , democratic vote. 180 is all you need. , :, :_ need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, need. and jacob is constitutionally correct. but _ need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, but he _ need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, but he will _ need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, but he will also _ need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, but he will also now, - need. and jacob is constitutionally correct, but he will also now, and| correct, but he will also now, and he was involved with the plans, and it was much more organised then, to topple theresa may when she was prime minister, he will know that previous prime ministers who have won the vote of confidence but with a substantial portion of the party still voting against them, haven't managed to last very long after that. he managed to last very long after that. :, , , , that. he said it was very different with theresa _ that. he said it was very different with theresa may, _ that. he said it was very different with theresa may, he _ that. he said it was very different with theresa may, he said - that. he said it was very different with theresa may, he said she i that. he said it was very different| with theresa may, he said she had lost the house of commons, notjust the conservatives. he lost the house of commons, not 'ust the conservatives.�* the conservatives. he may be right but let's get _ the conservatives. he may be right but let's get through _ the conservatives. he may be right but let's get through this _ the conservatives. he may be right but let's get through this evening, | but let's get through this evening, find out what the result is and we will have to see.

john penrose. ian watson is at westminster and has been speaking with conservative mps. john penrose one of a number of tory mps speaking against the beam —— the prime minister today. what is your sense of where the numbers are? certainly those who have _ of where the numbers are? certainly those who have been _ of where the numbers are? certainly those who have been more - of where the numbers are? certainly those who have been more critical i of where the numbers are? certainlyj those who have been more critical of borisjohnson for a those who have been more critical of boris johnson for a longer those who have been more critical of borisjohnson for a longer period of time seem to be quite confident they can get around one third of the parliamentary party to vote against him, perhaps 120, to 130 mps. the government whips take a different view. they think they can keep the numbers beneath 100. that would be a comfortable win for borisjohnson. what if the rebels are correct and it is of that nature, then they think that makes his position quite difficult. what they are unable to predict is precisely how many people who are publicly loyal, or publicly silent, who hold ministerial office, willjoin them in voting against borisjohnson in a secret ballot. there are hopes and i am hedging my bets, their hopes are they could perhaps get the numbers up to 150,

which won one not winning the vote, would put pressure on borisjohnson to go, or hopefully, getting cabinet ministers to put pressure on him to go. we have heard from jacob rees—mogg. i also spoke to a staunch supporter of borisjohnson's who supporter of boris johnson's who said supporter of borisjohnson's who said he owed his seat to boris johnson. he said of borisjohnson wins by one vote, he will continue. that message is being put out by supporters of borisjohnson to say, you will not get rid of him anyway, why throw your lot in with the rebels at the moment? in fact, the situation would be even worse because this would give labour a gift, destabilising the party potentially, destabilising the prime minister, but borisjohnson being borisjohnson, is not simply going to step aside. the fact this was called this morning and mps arejust returning back to westminster, the atmosphere getting more febrile as it goes on. it got off to a very slow start. when people listen to the prime minister this afternoon at

four o'clock, after that, waiver ors will begin to make up their minds. i am being told that webs are also emphasising there might be a reshuffle on its way after this vote is concluded, certainly before the summer. that may encourage some people who perhaps want to climb the ministerial wrong, people who perhaps want to climb the ministerialwrong, get people who perhaps want to climb the ministerial wrong, get up the ministerial wrong, get up the ministerial ladder, to stay with the prime minister. again i spoke to a former minister who said, what he does is not going to be radical enough, he will not re—employ me or certain people in the party who have been critical in the past and therefore he will simply not have enough support that is sustainable for the future. either way, whether he wins or loses, some people believe he will be damaged nonetheless and this would be a boost for the opposition. teeth? nonetheless and this would be a boost for the opposition. why now are we at this _ boost for the opposition. why now are we at this point? _ boost for the opposition. why now are we at this point? i _ boost for the opposition. why now are we at this point? i mean, - boost for the opposition. why now are we at this point? i mean, he i are we at this point? i mean, he used to be called the tory who could reach voters other tories couldn't

reach. he won that 80 seat majority and yet we have seen what has happened in by—elections and what the forecasting is potentially for the forecasting is potentially for the by—elections that are coming. what has happened? t the by-elections that are coming. what has happened?— the by-elections that are coming. what has happened? i think what led to this is a variety _ what has happened? i think what led to this is a variety of _ what has happened? i think what led to this is a variety of factors, - to this is a variety of factors, actually. the biggest one, of course, is partygate and the fact when the sue gray report was finally produced, in its unexpurgated form, some mps were saying that there angen some mps were saying that there anger, the anger of their constituents, had been rekindled, the prime minister had misled parliament, hadn't told the truth department, which they saw as you use the important issue, more important than the initial offence, if you like, of having parties during lockdown. that, alongside the cost of living crisis, what was seen as a relatively bold response, that disturbed some people too and they saw an erosion of support in some of the so—called red wall seats, seats

the so—called red wall seats, seats the party hold for the first time in a long time. polling in wakefield, where there is an upcoming by—election, does not look at all promising for the conservatives. one worry has been what some people call around here the blue wall, seats that are traditionally conservative, some traditional conservative support is not pleased with the behaviour inside number —— number 10, and opting for the liberal democrats at two by—elections, and possibly a third by—election in devon, in tiverton. that has made conservative mps very nervous. not even the confidence in ukraine has been enough to hold back this tide of letters, which is at least above 15% of the parliamentary party. some of those rebels thinking they can get up to 30% of the parliamentary party to vote against the prime minister tonight.— party to vote against the prime minister tonight. thank you very much. duncan _ minister tonight. thank you very

much. duncan kennedy- minister tonight. thank you very much. duncan kennedy is- minister tonight. thank you very much. duncan kennedy is in - much. duncan kennedy is in winchester. i think it is fair to say that i all the people we have spoken to here this morning, it is hard to find people who are really, really, really supportive of boris johnson. that is not to say they want him out tonight, it is more subtle than that. a lot of people are using words like disappointed in him, but they are not sure whether it is time for him to go. this is a conservative seat, winchester, held by steve brian, who wrote last month saying he thinks borisjohnson should go. it is a marginal seat. that is reflected in the people we have spoken to this morning. some say he should go. some say he shouldn't go. others are just not clear. to give you an idea of that, we spoke to a father and son, paul and mark benham,14, we spoke to a father and son, paul and mark benham, 14, won against borisjohnson going. this is what i have to say. ijust lost i just lost confidence ijust lost confidence in its ability— ijust lost confidence in its ability to lead. i don't trust them

any more — ability to lead. i don't trust them any more i— ability to lead. i don't trust them any more. i supported brexit. but other— any more. i supported brexit. but other than— any more. i supported brexit. but other than that, ijust lost confidence in them, i'm afraid. my father— confidence in them, i'm afraid. my father has— confidence in them, i'm afraid. my father has a — confidence in them, i'm afraid. my father has a different opinion. let's — father has a different opinion. let's turn _ father has a different opinion. let's turn to the father. which way should it go tonight? sure as boris johnson stay or should i kick out? he should stay. he has shown so much leadership. _ he should stay. he has shown so much leadership, particularly— he should stay. he has shown so much leadership, particularly on _ leadership, particularly on international _ leadership, particularly on international issues- leadership, particularly on i international issues recently, leadership, particularly on - international issues recently, that i don't _ international issues recently, that idon't think— international issues recently, that i don't think anyone _ international issues recently, that i don't think anyone else - international issues recently, that i don't think anyone else would i international issues recently, that| i don't think anyone else would do the same — i don't think anyone else would do the same. :, �* , ., i don't think anyone else would do the same. :, �*, :, ,:, the same. that's quite a powerful argument. _ the same. that's quite a powerful argument, son? _ the same. that's quite a powerful argument, son? yes, _ the same. that's quite a powerful argument, son? yes, we - the same. that's quite a powerful argument, son? yes, we are - the same. that's quite a powerful argument, son? yes, we are at i argument, son? yes, we are at o- osite argument, son? yes, we are at opposite ends _ argument, son? yes, we are at opposite ends of— argument, son? yes, we are at opposite ends of the _ argument, son? yes, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum | argument, son? yes, we are at i opposite ends of the spectrum on that one — opposite ends of the spectrum on that one. but i suppose i am following — that one. but i suppose i am following the consensus that though seems _ following the consensus that though seems to _ following the consensus that though seems to be quite a lot of consensus that trust— seems to be quite a lot of consensus that trust is — seems to be quite a lot of consensus that trust is the main thing that we want _ that trust is the main thing that we want and — that trust is the main thing that we want. and from that basis, i have 'ust want. and from that basis, i have just lost— want. and from that basis, i have just lost the — want. and from that basis, i have just lost the trust i need in the data — just lost the trust i need in the data. :, , :, :, it data. partygate did it for you? it is notjust _ data. partygate did it for you? it is notjust about _ data. partygate did it for you? it is notjust about partygate. - data. partygate did it for you? it | is notjust about partygate. there are other — is notjust about partygate. there are other things i have not been that impressed with in terms of leadership. but i think it's basically all about trust. partygate

did not— basically all about trust. partygate did not help that for me. partygate for ou? did not help that for me. partygate for you? that _ did not help that for me. partygate for you? that was _ did not help that for me. partygate for you? that was disappointing. i did not help that for me. partygate i for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg _ for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg said, _ for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg said, it - for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg said, it is - for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg said, it is a - for you? that was disappointing. but as jacob rees-mogg said, it is a bit. asjacob rees—mogg said, it is a bit of puffing _ asjacob rees—mogg said, it is a bit of puffing comparison. _ asjacob rees—mogg said, it is a bit of puffing comparison. noll - as jacob rees-mogg said, it is a bit of puffing comparison.— as jacob rees-mogg said, it is a bit of puffing comparison. not enough to net rid of of puffing comparison. not enough to get rid of him? _ of puffing comparison. not enough to get rid of him? no, _ of puffing comparison. not enough to get rid of him? no, definitely - of puffing comparison. not enough to get rid of him? no, definitely not. i borisjohnson is a person who divides families. people we have spoken to all morning simply can't make up their minds about him. they judge him on the personality and separately on the policy. i think on personality, in terms of this whole thing about trust, there is a lot of negativity here in places like winchester. on policy, it seems much more subtle. people say he has done good things on covid, he is doing good things on covid, he is doing good things on ukraine and they are just not sure, especially as some of them to us, who would come after them to us, who would come after them and whether he should be voted out by his own mps. extremely difficult. a lot of people divided in the kind of seat like winchester that a conservative to hold onto ——

have to hold onto the next general election. everybody will be watching the vote tonight very closely indeed. :, ~ the vote tonight very closely indeed. :, ,, , :, the vote tonight very closely indeed. ., ~' , the vote tonight very closely indeed. :, ~ , g indeed. thank you, duncan. my colleague _ indeed. thank you, duncan. my colleague victoria _ indeed. thank you, duncan. my colleague victoria spoke - indeed. thank you, duncan. my colleague victoria spoke to - indeed. thank you, duncan. my. colleague victoria spoke to jacob rees—mogg earlier. he is the ministerfor brexit rees—mogg earlier. he is the minister for brexit opportunities. he said he expects the prime minister to win because of a strong majority in the house of commons. most of the time you will find 15% of most parties that are not aligned with the leader. i think one shouldn't read too much into reaching that relatively low hurdle. really? reaching that relatively low hurdle. reall ? :, , ' , reaching that relatively low hurdle. reall? :, , w ., reaching that relatively low hurdle. reall? :, , 'f :, reaching that relatively low hurdle. reall? :, , ., :, ,f~ , :, really? really. 1596 leaves 8596 on the other side _ really? really. 1596 leaves 8596 on the other side of _ really? really. 1596 leaves 8596 on the other side of the _ really? really. 1596 leaves 8596 on the other side of the equation. - really? really. 1596 leaves 8596 on the other side of the equation. it i the other side of the equation. it leads to a no—confidence vote in the prime minister tonight. and you will know what happens when leaders of your party who are prime ministers have a confidence vote, they don't usually last very long, even if they win? ,:, usually last very long, even if they win? ~ :, , :, win? theresa may indeed won her confidence — win? theresa may indeed won her confidence vote. _ win? theresa may indeed won her confidence vote. and _ win? theresa may indeed won her confidence vote. and yet - win? theresa may indeed won her confidence vote. and yet you - win? theresa may indeed won her. confidence vote. and yet you called for her to resign _

confidence vote. and yet you called for her to resign after _ confidence vote. and yet you called for her to resign after she - confidence vote. and yet you called for her to resign after she won - confidence vote. and yet you called for her to resign after she won it? i for her to resign after she won it? she lost by the largest vote margin in history, a vote in the house of commons. theresa may couldn't command the house of commons. the prime minister has a majority of 80. that is a very important difference. if borisjohnson wins, even if boris johnson wins, which i am assuming you will expect... t johnson wins, which i am assuming you will expect. . ._ you will expect... i expect he will win, you will expect... i expect he will win. yes- — you will expect... i expect he will win. yes- by _ you will expect... i expect he will win, yes. by what _ you will expect... i expect he will win, yes. by what margin? - you will expect... i expect he will win, yes. by what margin? one i you will expect... i expect he will| win, yes. by what margin? one is enouih. win, yes. by what margin? one is enough- i— win, yes. by what margin? one is enough- i hope — win, yes. by what margin? one is enough. i hope every _ win, yes. by what margin? one is| enough. i hope every conservative win, yes. by what margin? one is- enough. i hope every conservative mp will vote for him. this is a democracy and in a democracy if you win by one vote, you will have one. are you seriously saying if he wins by one vote, his authority will be intact and he will be able to continue as leader of your party and prime minister?— continue as leader of your party and prime minister? yes. so if he wins b one prime minister? yes. so if he wins by one vote _ prime minister? yes. so if he wins by one vote he _ prime minister? yes. so if he wins by one vote he can _ prime minister? j'93 so if he wins by one vote he can carry prime minister? j93 so if he wins by one vote he can carry on with his authority intact? he by one vote he can carry on with his authority intact?— authority intact? he has a very important _ authority intact? he has a very important mandate _ authority intact? he has a very important mandate from - authority intact? he has a very important mandate from the i authority intact? he has a very - important mandate from the british people, who gave him a majority of 80. to pretend of the election in 2019 was not about borisjohnson's leadership as it is i think

fanciful. that cannot be taken away from the prime minister lightly and can only be taken away in accordance with the rules under which he operates. by those rules one is enough. operates. by those rules one is enouih. ~ :, operates. by those rules one is enou.h_ . ., operates. by those rules one is enouih. 9 :, , operates. by those rules one is enouih.~ :, , ~ enough. what mood is mrjohnson in toda ? i enough. what mood is mrjohnson in today? i haven't _ enough. what mood is mrjohnson in today? i haven't actually _ enough. what mood is mrjohnson in today? i haven't actually spoken - enough. what mood is mrjohnson in today? i haven't actually spoken to i today? i haven't actually spoken to him this morning. _ today? i haven't actually spoken to him this morning. he _ today? i haven't actually spoken to him this morning. he needs - today? i haven't actually spoken to him this morning. he needs to - today? i haven't actually spoken to i him this morning. he needs to speak to other people as a matter of great importance. i believe you are speaking to the president of ukraine earlier today. do speaking to the president of ukraine earlier today-— earlier today. do you know anything about that conversation? _ earlier today. do you know anything about that conversation? i - earlier today. do you know anything about that conversation? i don't. ii about that conversation? i don't. i don't have — about that conversation? i don't. i don't have either— about that conversation? i don't. i don't have either the _ about that conversation? i don't. i don't have either the ability - about that conversation? i don't. i don't have either the ability or - about that conversation? i don't. i don't have either the ability or the right to eavesdrop on the prime minister's conversations. fair enouih. minister's conversations. fair enough- do _ minister's conversations. fair enough. do you _ minister's conversations. fair enough. do you think number 10 are bullish about this? what is your feeling is a member of his top team? well, i am a member of his team and very supportive of him. i wouldn't promote my on duty. no, all elections have to be campaign for properly and effectively. i am very optimistic about the result. but you have to encourage people to... one

has got to get this balance right. how are you encouraging people to turn out and vote for borisjohnson? well, i point to the mandate he has got and his success as a leader. ee’s got and his success as a leader. 5596 of conservative _ got and his success as a leader. 55% of conservative voters across the country, according tojlp partners, do not trust borisjohnson. that must be alarming? do not trust boris johnson. that must be alarming?— do not trust boris johnson. that must be alarming? polls taken in midterm are _ must be alarming? polls taken in midterm are very _ must be alarming? polls taken in midterm are very often _ must be alarming? polls taken in midterm are very often not - midterm are very often not flattering to the party of godman. this is conservative voters? the same was true in the 1980s of margaret thatcher under different issues. peoplt looking like a town, whatever it was. parties in mid—term often go through periods of unpopularity. if you had believed the polls, ed miliband would have become prime minister in 2016. i seem to remember he didn't. tt is seem to remember he didn't. it is about boris _ seem to remember he didn't. it is about borisjohnson and his character, and that seems to be something you are in denial about? no, i don't think i am. i think he hasa no, i don't think i am. i think he has a very brilliant and charismatic character that has a great appeal to

some people, but it has always annoyed some people, the pull faced brigade have never liked it. 55’s annoyed some people, the pull faced brigade have never liked it.— brigade have never liked it. 5596 of conservative _ brigade have never liked it. 5596 of conservative voters _ brigade have never liked it. 5596 of conservative voters don't - brigade have never liked it. 5596 of conservative voters don't believe i brigade have never liked it. 5596 of i conservative voters don't believe he is trustworthy. are they the po faced brigade?— is trustworthy. are they the po faced brigade? is trustworthy. are they the po faced briiade? :, , :, faced brigade? you can find polls to sa all faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts — faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts of _ faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts of things. _ faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts of things. you - faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts of things. you have - faced brigade? you can find polls to say all sorts of things. you have to l say all sorts of things. you have to be very careful about polling. who was asked, when they were asked, what was the question, how is it phrased? prime ministers mid—term are often not at their most popular. indeed, look at mr blair. let’s are often not at their most popular. indeed, look at mr blair.— indeed, look at mr blair. let's talk to peter kyle. _ indeed, look at mr blair. let's talk to peter kyle, shadow _ indeed, look at mr blair. let's talk to peter kyle, shadow secretary i indeed, look at mr blair. let's talk| to peter kyle, shadow secretary of state for northern ireland. welcome. are you watching this with some relish? :, . are you watching this with some relish? :, :, :, :, : , relish? no, i am not watching this with relish. _ relish? no, i am not watching this with relish, because _ relish? no, i am not watching this with relish, because as _ relish? no, i am not watching this with relish, because as this - relish? no, i am not watching this| with relish, because as this psycho drama _ with relish, because as this psycho drama is— with relish, because as this psycho drama is unfolding, there are people going _ drama is unfolding, there are people going about their lives and they are struggling to put food on their plates— struggling to put food on their plates this evening. these challenges people are facing, because — challenges people are facing, because they are waiting to get into a hospital. — because they are waiting to get into a hospital, there are 7 million

people — a hospital, there are 7 million people on— a hospital, there are 7 million people on waiting lists, there are people _ people on waiting lists, there are people who are victims of crime who can't _ people who are victims of crime who can't get _ people who are victims of crime who can't get their day in court, all of these _ can't get their day in court, all of these things are a result of boris johnson's — these things are a result of boris johnson's management of our country on public— johnson's management of our country on public services. what we are seeing — on public services. what we are seeing today is the tory party having — seeing today is the tory party having a _ seeing today is the tory party having a nervous breakdown right in front of— having a nervous breakdown right in front of our— having a nervous breakdown right in front of our eyes. there are i'm ease _ front of our eyes. there are i'm ease off— front of our eyes. there are i'm ease off the ball and it will not be able to _ ease off the ball and it will not be able to return to tackling those key challenges until they have got rid of boris _ challenges until they have got rid of borisjohnson and challenges until they have got rid of boris johnson and they are again re—orientating themselves towards where _ re—orientating themselves towards where the — re—orientating themselves towards where the public need them to be. jacob _ where the public need them to be. jacob rees—mogg was saying they can get the right back on the ball immediately if he wins this vote tonight, even byjust one vote? the tonight, even by 'ust one vote? the conservative — tonight, even byjust one vote? the conservative party is tearing itself apart _ conservative party is tearing itself apart in _ conservative party is tearing itself apart in front of our eyes. it is a deeply— apart in front of our eyes. it is a deeply factionalised party. i can see this — deeply factionalised party. i can see this from when i sit across them and the _ see this from when i sit across them and the house of commons. there is the 2019— and the house of commons. there is the 2019 intake, the erg group, the one nation— the 2019 intake, the erg group, the one nation group, they have become deeply— one nation group, they have become deeply factionalised and not one of those _ deeply factionalised and not one of those factions is able to sustain a leader~ _ those factions is able to sustain a leader. that means if the result

happens — leader. that means if the result happens tonight and boris johnson does scrape across the line, unfortunately, the civil war within the tory— unfortunately, the civil war within the tory party is going to continue and it— the tory party is going to continue and it is— the tory party is going to continue and it is crucial that there is a labour— and it is crucial that there is a labour party, led by keir starmer, that is— labour party, led by keir starmer, that is united and does have a plan, i plan _ that is united and does have a plan, i plan to— that is united and does have a plan, i plan to tackle the challenges in our nhs. — i plan to tackle the challenges in our nhs, to tackle the challenges we have with _ our nhs, to tackle the challenges we have with crime and sort out the epidemic— have with crime and sort out the epidemic of crime and are my country. _ epidemic of crime and are my country, and to make sure that schools — country, and to make sure that schools get to catch up and recovery they need. _ schools get to catch up and recovery they need, because schools are still in the _ they need, because schools are still in the crisis — they need, because schools are still in the crisis mired by the covid problems— in the crisis mired by the covid problems and the challenges the government ad during that time. there _ government ad during that time. there has— government ad during that time. there has been no recovery. we have a plan _ there has been no recovery. we have a lan. :, . there has been no recovery. we have a lan. :, :, :, ,, there has been no recovery. we have a plan. you are talking about a government — a plan. you are talking about a government that _ a plan. you are talking about a government that has _ a plan. you are talking about a government that has an - a plan. you are talking about a government that has an 80 - a plan. you are talking about a l government that has an 80 seat majority, that was only secured in 2019? ~ :, majority, that was only secured in 2019? : ., :, majority, that was only secured in 2019? ~ :, :, :, , 2019? we have a government being torn a art 2019? we have a government being torn apart by _ 2019? we have a government being torn apart by circumstances - 2019? we have a government being torn apart by circumstances and - 2019? we have a government being torn apart by circumstances and by| torn apart by circumstances and by factions— torn apart by circumstances and by factions within their own ranks. that— factions within their own ranks. that is— factions within their own ranks. that is the _ factions within their own ranks. that is the situation we have now. it has _ that is the situation we have now. it has lost — that is the situation we have now. it has lost the confidence of the country — it has lost the confidence of the country. there is no opinion poll out there — country. there is no opinion poll out there that says the public has confidence in borisjohnson, that

very trust— confidence in borisjohnson, that very trust borisjohnson. he is a prime _ very trust borisjohnson. he is a prime minister, since that an election. _ prime minister, since that an election, that has been fined by police. — election, that has been fined by police. he — election, that has been fined by police, he has broken the criminal law since — police, he has broken the criminal law since that time, his policies have _ law since that time, his policies have been— law since that time, his policies have been found to have been unlawful. _ have been found to have been unlawful, and just in the last week he is _ unlawful, and just in the last week he is trying — unlawful, and just in the last week he is trying to lower the standards of the _ he is trying to lower the standards of the ministerial code so that he doesn't _ of the ministerial code so that he doesn't have to resign when inevitably the next inquiry into his behaviour— inevitably the next inquiry into his behaviour finds that he has transgressed and doesn't lead the standards— transgressed and doesn't lead the standards we expect the people in his position in public life. these are the — his position in public life. these are the reasons why he is in this trouble. — are the reasons why he is in this trouble. not _ are the reasons why he is in this trouble, not through any other forces — trouble, not through any other forces that are out there. this is their— forces that are out there. this is their own — forces that are out there. this is their own doing. he forces that are out there. this is their own doing.— forces that are out there. this is their own doing. he said he wouldn't so, their own doing. he said he wouldn't to, as ou their own doing. he said he wouldn't go. as you have _ their own doing. he said he wouldn't go, as you have indicated, _ their own doing. he said he wouldn't go, as you have indicated, after- go, as you have indicated, after having the final over partygate. conversely, keir starmer, who said he should have gone for that reason, said he would go were he to face a fine over the police inquiries into what happened with what has been called beergate. could we potentially find ourselves in a situation where both of the parties

are facing leadership contests? you can see the — are facing leadership contests? you can see the stark difference between the two _ can see the stark difference between the two. keir starmer has said he would _ the two. keir starmer has said he would resign if he was fine. the prime _ would resign if he was fine. the prime minister was fined. there were 126 wines _ prime minister was fined. there were 126 wines within his own organisation, inside number10, organisation, inside number 10, throughout organisation, inside number10, throughout the covid period. —— 126 finds _ throughout the covid period. —— 126 finds the _ throughout the covid period. —— 126 finds. the most transgressing part of our— finds. the most transgressing part of our whole country is a part of his office — of our whole country is a part of his office. yet he still ploughs on. there _ his office. yet he still ploughs on. there are — his office. yet he still ploughs on. there are no circumstances i can see where _ there are no circumstances i can see where keir_ there are no circumstances i can see where keir starmer will be found guilty— where keir starmer will be found guilty and will be fined, it won't happen — guilty and will be fined, it won't happen. but what is starc is the fact that — happen. but what is starc is the fact that he has taken a principled view from — fact that he has taken a principled view from the outset, borisjohnson is clinging _ view from the outset, borisjohnson is clinging on for dear life because he thinks — is clinging on for dear life because he thinks it— is clinging on for dear life because he thinks it is all a game. he thinks — he thinks it is all a game. he thinks it— he thinks it is all a game. he thinks it is— he thinks it is all a game. he thinks it is all about him. he has made _ thinks it is all about him. he has made the — thinks it is all about him. he has made the running of our country and public— made the running of our country and public services, and keeping people safe on— public services, and keeping people safe on our— public services, and keeping people safe on our streets, an issue about his own _ safe on our streets, an issue about his own political career. that _ his own political career. that is— his own political career. that is unforgivable. his own political career. that is unforiivable. ., 4, , :, , that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed _ that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed for _ that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed forjoining _ that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed forjoining us. - that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed forjoining us. the - that is unforgivable. thank you very much indeed forjoining us. the onej much indeed forjoining us. the one

o'clock news is coming up. first, a weather update. hello aiain. first, a weather update. hello again. looking _ first, a weather update. hello again. looking at _ first, a weather update. hello again. looking at the - first, a weather update. hello again. looking at the weather| again. looking at the weather picture this afternoon, quite a mixture. some of you will get to see some sunshine, certainly it has been a glorious start across some parts of western scotland to northern ireland, and also south—west england. some holes in the cloud. otherwise, across much of england and wales in particular, it has been and wales in particular, it has been a different story. this cloud in eastern areas has been thick enough to outbreaks of light rain. we have had some in hull earlier today. where that cloud stakes, and it will do across large areas of england and wales, for some across the midlands and east anglia, temperatures will really struggle this afternoon. probably just really struggle this afternoon. probablyjust reaching highs of 13 or 14 degrees. quite a chilly day. for west scotland and towards south—west england, southern wales, in the sunshine, where it comes through, it will feel warm, with temperatures reaching 20, 201 degrees. some of the warmest weather

will be in western scotland. tonight we could see a few patches of rain in the south of england and eastern areas of ingot. otherwise a night with clear spells. temperatures could dip down to six or seven celsius. tomorrow morning, variable cloud to start with. still the odd patch of rain for eastern and south—eastern england. otherwise it is a morning with some sunny spells that will develop. a few showers in england and wales this afternoon. not too many. when the sun to comes out, there will be more of that sometime i will be a warmer day. temperatures into the high teens, low 20s. tuesday night we see this band of rain moving across all parts of the country. there will be some strong winds as we head through wednesday as the main rain band clears, showers following. wendy for wales and south—west england with near gale force winds. the rain and cloud extend northwards. there will be a big drop in temperatures in scotland. we swapped the sunshine

for a cloudy conditions, with rain at times. 15 degrees in glasgow. towards the end of the week it gets even more unsettled. a deep berry of low pressure will push weather fronts across the country, with strong winds expected in western areas. pretty much all parts of the country will see showers for a time as we head through friday about some sunny breaks.

the prime minister is facing a vote by his mps on whether to oust him as party leader. it follows the news that the threshold of letters from mps calling for him to go was reached. i notified the prime minister yesterday that the threshold had been reached, and we agreed the timetable for a confidence vote to take place. ahead of the vote, borisjohnson will attempt to shore up support among his mps in a private meeting this afternoon. number ten says the prime minister welcomes the opportunity to make his case. in our other main stories this lunchtime: the uk is sending multiple—launch rocket systems to ukraine, after a warning from vladimir putin his forces will attack new targets

if the west supplies long—range weapons.