hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me, kevin schofield, political editor with huffpost uk, and martin bentham, home affairs editor at the evening standard. welcome to you both, good to see you again. that may bring you up—to—date at home with the front pages as we have them so far. —— let me. the ft leads with worrying news for the uk's economy, which is set to see the worst growth in the 620 apart from russia. unsuprisngly, the metro reports on the rmt�*s planned rail strike, accusing its boss of having "no shame" when apologising for the disruption it will cause. the i also leads with the industrial action, saying it could cause supermarkets to go without supplies, resulting in empty shelves. the price of filling up the average car will hit £100 — that makes the front page of the telegraph. the guardian also leads with rising fuel prices and adds that the worsening economic situtation in the uk will prevent the pm from "resetting" what they call his "troubled premiership".

finally, the sun leads with model kelly brook's engagement to her now fiance, jeremy parisi. we will not trouble you with the jeremy parisi, kelly brooks, story i think, for now. kevin, if we can, let's begin with the ft any rather ominous warning from the oecd that our growth is going to be pretty pathetic next year.— our growth is going to be pretty pathetic next year. yeah, that's a re fair pathetic next year. yeah, that's a pretty fair summary, _ pathetic next year. yeah, that's a pretty fair summary, i _ pathetic next year. yeah, that's a pretty fair summary, i think. - pathetic next year. yeah, that's a i pretty fair summary, i think. yeah, out of the 620 countries, the only one worse than the uk on growth is russia, and i think it is safe to say there are some extenuating circumstances there, the sanctions the rest of the world has imposed on russia which might explain their economic troubles, but the oecd will see zero economic growth in the uk,

complete stagnation, inflation of around 7.5%. so you get the combination of no net growth and you have stagflation, which is the worst of all worlds. the blame also tax raises in the book by the government now. the government has been very keen to stress the economic problems that the country is faced during our largely as a result of global factors such as the war in ukraine, however, the government can change tax rates and use them if they want to —— reduce them. but that does not seem to and appetite from the chancellor, so, yeah, pretty grim forecast as far chancellor, so, yeah, pfetty grim forecast as far as chancellor, so, yeah, pretty grim forecast as far as the economy is concerned, pretty bad for boris johnson trying to get back on the front foot after his narrow escape monday night, 148 mps try to kick

him out of number ten.— monday night, 148 mps try to kick him out of number ten. martin, what is most striking _ him out of number ten. martin, what is most striking about _ him out of number ten. martin, what is most striking about this _ him out of number ten. martin, what is most striking about this is - him out of number ten. martin, what is most striking about this is the - is most striking about this is the warning that the combination that kevin mentioned thereof no growth and high inflation, it is fair, what kevin says about the government's argument that a lot of this is international to their rio winds blowing across the country, but will cannot help presumably is that the british economy has been underperforming for quite a long period —— there are in a winds blowing. 0ur growth rates have not been adequate to give us a buffer to deal with it. i been adequate to give us a buffer to deal with it. ., been adequate to give us a buffer to deal with it— deal with it. i am not sure that is entirely fair. _ deal with it. i am not sure that is entirely fair, is it? _ deal with it. i am not sure that is entirely fair, is it? but _ deal with it. i am not sure that is entirely fair, is it? but i - entirely fair, is it? but i think the problem at the moment is we are subtly— the problem at the moment is we are subtly being hit very hard because of the _ subtly being hit very hard because of the trade impasse, as you rightly said, _ of the trade impasse, as you rightly said. the _ of the trade impasse, as you rightly said, the international impact of it, said, the international impact of it. a _ said, the international impact of it, a worldwide thing, but clearly, as this _

it, a worldwide thing, but clearly, as this shows, we are getting harder than anybody else other than russia, which _ than anybody else other than russia, which has _ than anybody else other than russia, which has kevin says is an expert in every— which has kevin says is an expert in every casem — which has kevin says is an expert in every case... —— extraordinary case. some _ every case... —— extraordinary case. some of— every case... —— extraordinary case. some of it _ every case... —— extraordinary case. some of it is — every case... —— extraordinary case. some of it is to— every case... —— extraordinary case. some of it is to do with the high level— some of it is to do with the high level of— some of it is to do with the high level of imports, which are being hit by— level of imports, which are being hit by this— level of imports, which are being hit by this inflationary pressure, and i_ hit by this inflationary pressure, and i think— hit by this inflationary pressure, and i think the politics of this all is, as— and i think the politics of this all is, as kevin— and i think the politics of this all is, as kevin wasjust getting advair, clearly, they say the 0ecd says the _ advair, clearly, they say the 0ecd says the cause is rising inflation of a rising — says the cause is rising inflation of a rising interest rates which respond — of a rising interest rates which respond to the high inflation and the increasing taxes, and the politics of it are, people in the politics of it are, people in the tory— the politics of it are, people in the tory party saying, incentive tax raises, _ the tory party saying, incentive tax raises, people's tax burden going up, raises, people's tax burden going up. that— raises, people's tax burden going up, that needs to be stop and reverse — up, that needs to be stop and reverse -- _ up, that needs to be stop and reverse —— the tax raises. this is a

forecast, — reverse —— the tax raises. this is a forecast, zero _ reverse —— the tax raises. this is a forecast, zero growth next year, and so it can _ forecast, zero growth next year, and so it can he — forecast, zero growth next year, and so it can be altered, and the way to alter— so it can be altered, and the way to alter it. _ so it can be altered, and the way to alter it, some people will argue, so it can be altered, and the way to alter it, some people willargue, i am quite — alter it, some people willargue, i am quite sure, already are arguing, is to give _ am quite sure, already are arguing, is to give money back to people and to he _ is to give money back to people and to be taking that decision to help people. — to be taking that decision to help people, cope with it, and to generate _ people, cope with it, and to generate investments, because i so as the _ generate investments, because i so as the problem is that if people are worse _ as the problem is that if people are worse off, — as the problem is that if people are worse off, as everybody understands, they spend _ worse off, as everybody understands, they spend less, notjust... it is notiust— they spend less, notjust... it is notiust the _ they spend less, notjust... it is notjust the cost they spend less, notjust... it is not just the cost that hits them, the rising — not just the cost that hits them, the rising petrol prices, the rising food prices, but then they are spending _ food prices, but then they are spending less on other things, so their consumer spending, going out and so _ their consumer spending, going out and so on. — their consumer spending, going out and so on, clothes and entertainment, all those things get depressed as well. there is a knock on effect _ depressed as well. there is a knock on effect on — depressed as well. there is a knock on effect on the economy from those industries _ on effect on the economy from those industries as well, so it is dangerous cycle to get sucked into, and clearly — dangerous cycle to get sucked into, and clearly this message from the 0ecd_ and clearly this message from the 0ecd will— and clearly this message from the 0ecd will increase the pressure to try to _ 0ecd will increase the pressure to try to do _ 0ecd will increase the pressure to try to do something very directly about— try to do something very directly about it. — try to do something very directly about it, to make sure that people

have got _ about it, to make sure that people have got some more money to spend and to— have got some more money to spend and to help _ have got some more money to spend and to help them get through the rising _ and to help them get through the rising prices that they are facing. kevin, _ rising prices that they are facing. kevin, the — rising prices that they are facing. kevin, the difficult he for the prime minister in all of this is, because his authority has been more than you might otherwise want to do to pressures coming from the back benches.— to do to pressures coming from the back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league — back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a _ back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a lot _ back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a lot of _ back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a lot of making - back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a lot of making up - back benches. yeah, exactly. he has office league a lot of making up to i office league a lot of making up to do to nearly a of his —— nearly 150 of his conservative mps. the chancellor rishi sunak reported to the 1922 committee of conservative backbenchers tonight, and he basically told them the as much as i am instant of ly a tax—cutting conservative, i will not do it as an article of faith, i would do it when physical conditions allow, so those

mps waiting for tax cuts, i think they are going to wait a longer —— fiscal conditions. the chancellor is not willing to loosen his purse strings enough to do it right now, as a result of the pandemic, among other things, the national... the debt has been rising because of the money that had to be borrowed for furlough schemes and stuff like that, so i do not think a tax cut is coming around the corner terribly quickly, which as you say is quite a difficult message for borisjohnson to communicate to his backbenchers who are clearly restless and want him to listen to their concerns that he do something about it.- he do something about it. martin, front of the _ he do something about it. martin, front of the metro _ he do something about it. martin, front of the metro of _ he do something about it. martin, front of the metro of which. .. - he do something about it. martin, l front of the metro of which. .. these front of the metro of which... these forthcoming strikes are already a huge story for your paper and are going to be even more so, presumably, and you will be preparing your readers for contingency planning since many of them are not computers. yes. them are not computers. yes,

adventure — them are not computers. yes, adventure is _ them are not computers. yes, adventure is a _ —— and the metro... they will be harder hit than other— the metro... they will be harder hit than other people will be. they have taken _ than other people will be. they have taken a _ than other people will be. they have taken a pretty aggressive stance towards — taken a pretty aggressive stance towards the rmt here, but clearly, yes, towards the rmt here, but clearly, yes. it _ towards the rmt here, but clearly, yes. it is _ towards the rmt here, but clearly, yes. it is a — towards the rmt here, but clearly, yes, it is a devastating blow for a lot of— yes, it is a devastating blow for a lot of people, isn't it? and i feel particularly sorry for people relying _ particularly sorry for people relying on it to get to work, to do their— relying on it to get to work, to do theiriohs. — relying on it to get to work, to do theirjobs, day in, day out, who are going _ theirjobs, day in, day out, who are going to _ theirjobs, day in, day out, who are going to face — theirjobs, day in, day out, who are going to face great inconvenience or find it— going to face great inconvenience or find it impossible, and it is going to, find it impossible, and it is going to. frankly. — find it impossible, and it is going to, frankly, dealer big low economically to both the railways, it is going — economically to both the railways, it is going to hurt a lot of people doing _ it is going to hurt a lot of people doing their daily business and trying — doing their daily business and trying to— doing their daily business and trying to do theirjobs, so it is a very— trying to do theirjobs, so it is a very undesirable situation, clearly, and one _ very undesirable situation, clearly, and one we — very undesirable situation, clearly, and one we hope will be resolved before _ and one we hope will be resolved before the strikes happen, but i would _ before the strikes happen, but i would not — before the strikes happen, but i would not say would be optimistic

about— would not say would be optimistic about that some point in london, there _ about that some point in london, there was— about that some point in london, there was another strike on the underground, and that has been going on for a while — underground, and that has been gr? “i; on for a while with transport for london... on for a while with transport for london- - -_ on for a while with transport for london... ., , , ., ., london... there has been one going on for transplant _ london... there has been one going on for transplant unexpressed -- . on for transplant unexpressed —— trans _ on for transplant unexpressed —— trans nine — on for transplant unexpressed —— trans nine express... there is an rmt_ trans nine express... there is an rmt on — trans nine express... there is an rmt on there. ongoing. that is one that is— rmt on there. ongoing. that is one that is already happening and certainly has not been resolved. the onl one certainly has not been resolved. tia: only one watching, certainly has not been resolved. tt;s: only one watching, kevin, in scotland would have seen the scott real —— scotrail dispute. it is a paradox. when rail spinning is up, a lot of politicians are putting their faith in rail, and i guess from the union's point of view, they're putting their faith in union's point of view, they're putting theirfaith in but union's point of view, they're putting their faith in but that has not been matched by the treatment of the staff. ., .,. , ,

not been matched by the treatment of the staff. ., .. , , ., the staff. yeah, exactly. they are union jobs. _ the staff. yeah, exactly. they are union jobs. they _ the staff. yeah, exactly. they are union jobs, they have _ the staff. yeah, exactly. they are union jobs, they have to - the staff. yeah, exactly. they are| union jobs, they have to represent unionjobs, they have to represent their members. they say there have beenjob their members. they say there have been job losses and wage stagnation for the last two or three years, so what they want to do is catch up on what they want to do is catch up on what they've lost, and that is before you take into account the huge rate of inflation right now. however, it is a very tough sell to the public, and for these strikes to be effective, there has to be a lot of publics apathy with those going on strike, ended his question of who the public blame. do they blame the unions for calling the strike? 0r the public blame. do they blame the unions for calling the strike? or do they blame the employers for not meeting the union demands? i think it is, i guess, unless the dispute is resolved before the 23rd ofjune, we are going to find out soon enough, but it is a pretty dangerous game that the unions are playing, because i think, as martin mentioned, the dates they have chosen as well are particularly

extensive, 6lastonbury is that weekend, people wanting to move across the country, and they will be very angry if the change they want to catch are not running. i very angry if the change they want to catch are not running.— to catch are not running. i think the front page _ to catch are not running. i think the front page of _ to catch are not running. i think the front page of the _ to catch are not running. i think the front page of the i- the front page of the i captures this really well, doesn't it? something that we perhaps outside of the industry don't always appreciate, a lot of transport is logistics, and the justice depend appreciate, a lot of transport is logistics, and thejustice depend on crews and trains being in the right place, and if strike action happens, perhaps trains will have stopped at one destination and they're expected to be back at another when the industrial action is ended and they will not be —— logistics depends on for a knock on effect, which presumably explains the headline on the i. . . , presumably explains the headline on the i. ., ., , . the i. yeah, a very genetic headline. _ the i. yeah, a very genetic headline, and _ the i. yeah, a very genetic headline, and effectively i the i. yeah, a very genetic i headline, and effectively what the i. yeah, a very genetic - headline, and effectively what it means is, although the official strike days are the 21st, 22nd and 25th, as you say, because... it

25th, as you say, because... it might be the 23rd, but it is almost academic... the might be the 23rd, but it is almost academic- - -_ academic... the rundown of the service in _ academic... the rundown of the service in advance _ academic. .. the rundown of the service in advance of— academic... the rundown of the service in advance of the - academic... the rundown of the service in advance of the strict l service in advance of the strict beginning, and then at the other end, it takes time for the service to get back up and running —— the strike beginning. in total, you are looking at six days of the if not a complete shutdown, certainly heavily reduced services. i think is of one in five services running effectively, which given how much people rely on rail service to get around, in terms ofjobs, just going about their ordinary business, that is going to cause huge disruption to millions and millions of people at a time when people already struggling with the various other things. it is not as if it is easy to say, oh, i willjump into my car! laughter save that. _ willjump into my car! laughter save that. we — willjump into my car! laughter save that, we will _ willjump into my car! laughter save that, we will come - willjump into my car! laughter save that, we will come back- willjump into my car! laughter save that, we will come back to l save that, we will come back to that. ., , ., , , that. people are being hit in every direction right _ that. people are being hit in every direction right now, _ that. people are being hit in every direction right now, and _ that. people are being hit in every direction right now, and it - direction right now, and it distantly not enjoyable experience, just try about your normal

day—to—day activities right now. == day-to-day activities right now. -- not day—to—day activities right now. —— not enjoyable. as usual, with their bullet point style on the i, quite a lot of information. i was astonished with a statistic a few weeks ago, possibly the sunday times, the preview of strike affects, the operational day—to—day actions, they would prioritise freight over passengers because a freight train carries about 72 lori loads on average of the stuff, so it is better to have 72 trained in 72 lorries on the road —— one trains 72 lori's... trained in 72 lorries on the road -- one trains 72 lori's. . ._ one trains 72 lori's. .. unless you are absolutely _ one trains 72 lori's. .. unless you are absolutely having _ one trains 72 lori's. .. unless you are absolutely having to - one trains 72 lori's. .. unless you are absolutely having to travel, l are absolutely having to travel, first of— are absolutely having to travel, first of all, you will not fail to travel— first of all, you will not fail to travel on _ first of all, you will not fail to travel on the day the strikes are on. but — travel on the day the strikes are on. but on — travel on the day the strikes are on, but on the other days, you are just going — on, but on the other days, you are just going to — on, but on the other days, you are

just going to try to avoid a —— you are not— just going to try to avoid a —— you are not going _ just going to try to avoid a —— you are not going to be able to. people are not going to be able to. people are just _ are not going to be able to. people are just going to give up and think, either— are just going to give up and think, either i _ are just going to give up and think, either i cannot do what i was going to do— either i cannot do what i was going to do or i _ either i cannot do what i was going to do or i will have to try and find some _ to do or i will have to try and find some other— to do or i will have to try and find some other way, one of those two options. _ some other way, one of those two options, because it will not happen, will it? _ options, because it will not happen, will it? it— options, because it will not happen, will it? it makes sense to prioritise freight, because people need _ prioritise freight, because people need supermarkets filled up or, even worse, _ need supermarkets filled up or, even worse, frankly, if that was not happening, so it makes sense for that to _ happening, so it makes sense for that to he — happening, so it makes sense for that to be taking place and that is to he _ that to be taking place and that is to he the — that to be taking place and that is to be the priority, but the impact on people. — to be the priority, but the impact on people, everybody else, is going to he _ on people, everybody else, is going to he even— on people, everybody else, is going to be even greater as a result of it, to be even greater as a result of it. so— to be even greater as a result of it. so not— to be even greater as a result of it, so not surprising, but also, as kevin _ it, so not surprising, but also, as kevin said. — it, so not surprising, but also, as kevin said, not very cheery, frankly! _ kevin said, not very cheery, frankl ! ., , frankly! kevin hinted at this, martin. front _ frankly! kevin hinted at this, martin. front of _ frankly! kevin hinted at this, martin. front of the - frankly! kevin hinted at this, martin. front of the mirror, | frankly! kevin hinted at this, i martin. front of the mirror, and this is a statistic that over the jubilee weekend, i am sure they were discussing the ever rising price of the plaintiff, but this, for a family average size car, and it is

an average, but it is a pretty stark figure? filling up one for think is going to take you 100 quid. i watering! going to take you 100 quid. i waterinu! . . . going to take you 100 quid. i watering!— going to take you 100 quid. i waterinu! , ., ., , ~ going to take you 100 quid. i waterinu! , ., ~' ., watering! papers normally like a nice, watering! papers normally like a nice. round _ watering! papers normally like a nice, round figures, _ watering! papers normally like a nice, round figures, but- watering! papers normally like a nice, round figures, but they - watering! papers normally like a l nice, round figures, but they don't like this— nice, round figures, but they don't like this one, because it is a horrific— like this one, because it is a horrific figure, isn't it? any point again. _ horrific figure, isn't it? any point again. it — horrific figure, isn't it? any point again. it is — horrific figure, isn't it? any point again, it is notjust that is a grim figure _ again, it is notjust that is a grim figure you've got to pay to fill up your car. — figure you've got to pay to fill up your car, but it is also the fact that— your car, but it is also the fact that that money is money that people cannot— that that money is money that people cannot spend... for some people, of course. _ cannot spend... for some people, of course. there — cannot spend... for some people, of course, there will be a real hardship _ course, there will be a real hardship and leave them really struggling for any, to feed themselves and all those things. 0ther— themselves and all those things. other people who can find the money will still— other people who can find the money will still have less money to spend on anything else, and that is a negative — on anything else, and that is a negative thing as well for all sorts of other— negative thing as well for all sorts of other businesses and industries we are _ of other businesses and industries we are not— of other businesses and industries we are not thinking about or talking about— we are not thinking about or talking about directly but will be hit directly _ about directly but will be hit directly by the depressed consumer spending _ directly by the depressed consumer spending by so much money being spent _ spending by so much money being spent on _ spending by so much money being spent on heating bills, fuel bills,