welcome to bbc news. i'm david eades. our top stories: the uk conservative government faces a tough test in the wake of the partygate scandal, with counting under way in two key uk by—elections. the us supreme court strikes down restrictions on carrying guns in new york, signalling a shift that will reverberate nationwide. we cannot idly stand by and just watch our streets be flooded with guns due to more people being permitted to legally carry firearms in public. the taliban says the main search for survivors from the afghanistan earthquake is over. more than a thousand people are

thought to have been killed. translation: i ran towards my family but everything was under| you can see their homes and possessions scattered under the debris and their loved ones disappear in this single moment. and the heroic coach who saved a swimmer after she fainted and sank to the bottom of the pool at the world aquatics championships in budapest. i just swam as fast as i could to grab her and pull up to the surface, and once i pull her up, so i wasjust, my goal was only to make her breathe. counting is under way in two key uk by—elections for the conservative party

in west yorkshire and devon. in wakefield, the conservatives are defending a majority ofjust over 3000. and in tiverton and honiton, the tories have a much larger majority of more than 24,000. counting in wakefield hasjust been completed. both are being seen as a stern test of the conservative government's popularity in the light of partygate and the cost of living crisis. let's talk to bbc newsnight�*s policy editor, lewis goodall. he'll be with us throughout the coming hours, bringing you all the latest updates from both constituencies. let's just start with a tweet from the leader of the lib dems, ed davey. put this out an hour ago and the hammer being a reference to the by—election when last you a report a hammer to a blue tory wall. that is not very circumspect, is that?

normally they are very circumspect and reluctant to call anything until the declaration is made but he would not tweet that, believe me, unless he was 100% certain from the sampling that all parties have when they looking at different ballot boxes and checking what results are in comparing it to previous elections and he will be 100% confident. indeed, a lib dem both said this, they are declaring victory and saying it is a clear win, and the people of tiverton and honiton have spoken up for the country. it is a historical victory. we should put this in context, yes it is true that by—elections can produce big swings that can be reversed at the next election and signal the government. but there has now been over the course of a year, since last year in bucks, in december in north shropshire and now in tiverton and

honiton, three on the trot rectangular by—election gains by the lib dems from the conservatives. the swing was 25.2% but we don't know what the soon will be tonight but it will be over 22% because that is what is needed. that does not usually happen. this is remarkable consistency. something interesting is happening in the south of england and it's notjust the by—elections, look at the local elections, the lib dems gaining some west 0xfordshire, tunbridge wells, places in historically dominated conservative south. if i was a conservative south. if i was a conservative mp on the south and had a majority of ten, 000, 20,000, i would and had a majority of ten, 000, 20,000, iwould be and had a majority of ten, 000, 20,000, i would be thinking and had a majority of ten, 000, 20,000, iwould be thinking is my seat safe? 20,000, i would be thinking is my seat safe?— my seat safe? that is the underlying _ my seat safe? that is the underlying message, - my seat safe? that is the underlying message, this my seat safe? that is the - underlying message, this will be focused on no doubt during the course of this. we are careful not to jump the gun but the lib dems are doing a for

it. iii the lib dems are doing a for it. , ., ., it. if they are doing it, we can! if they _ it. if they are doing it, we can! if they have - it. if they are doing it, we can! if they have lost, - it. if they are doing it, we can! if they have lost, it | it. if they are doing it, we| can! if they have lost, it is the biggest self—inflicted own—goal, there will be massive sackings in their office! briefly, over to wakefield, much smaller majority, labour must feel they have to win and on the basis of what is happening down south, they need to win pretty well?— to win pretty well? talking to lib dem, _ to win pretty well? talking to lib dem, sorry, _ to win pretty well? talking to lib dem, sorry, labour- to win pretty well? talking to i lib dem, sorry, labour sources, they are confident of victory and less certain about the margin. i was talking to one neighbour person earlier he thinks it will be a double—digit swing and that is what they need. remember, the labour party has a mountain to climb and it's to win124 labour party has a mountain to climb and it's to win 124 seats in to climb and it's to win124 seats in to get the majority and there needs to be a 10% swing to the labour party, so really, wakefield is 38 on the list. it

really has to win it and i think we can be confident they will. . . , think we can be confident they will. ., ., , ., think we can be confident they will. . ., , ., , ., will. that was a “ubilant arrival we h will. that was a “ubilant arrival we saw _ will. that was a jubilant arrival we saw in - will. that was a jubilant - arrival we saw in wakefield. thank you for the update. let's cross to wakefield and bbc yorkshire's political editor, james vincent. just give us a feel for the atmosphere as it is now then? yeah, everyone is waiting for the declaration. no tweets declaring labour has won but some very big smiling faces from the people wearing red and they are confident they have taken a seat away from the conservatives. the conservatives. the conservatives one in 2019, one of their redwall seats we talk about in northern england and it looks like labour has got it back. the big question is how much are they got it back by?

this by—election is happening for a specific reason. the previous mp, is appealing his conviction and is currently in prison. imagine the cost of living, they are the big issues in the conservatives always think they had a tough time holding onto wakefield. it looks like a labour victory. the big question is how much labour have one by? = the big question is how much labour have one by?- the big question is how much labour have one by? - 'ust won. that was — labour have one by? - 'ust won. that was my * labour have one by? - 'ust won. that was my next _ labour have one by? - just won. that was my next question. - i'm alsojoined by political editor at bbc south west, martyn 0ates. he's watching all the goings—on in the constituency of tiverton and honiton. the lib dems have stolen a march on all averse, and they seem pretty sure where it is going? seem pretty sure where it is aaoin ? , seem pretty sure where it is hoin ? , ., , ., seem pretty sure where it is anoin? , ., ., going? yes, as we are hearing, the are going? yes, as we are hearing, they are calling _ going? yes, as we are hearing, they are calling this _ going? yes, as we are hearing, they are calling this and - they are calling this and saying it looks like a clear win, following suggestions from

labour representatives that their vote collapsed and it will be necessary for them to pull off something like this. in the context of southwest politics, this is significant. go back seven years and the lib dems and conservatives had displays carved up between them. they were in a position of equality, the lib dems were formidable foes to the conservatives and held the seats for decades and david cameron managed to secure a slim majority by wiping out the lib dems and in the general election since they have been kicking the dust and in seats like this, if they really are backin like this, if they really are back in business in their traditional heartland in the south—west, i think conservatives will be very concerned indeed.- conservatives will be very concerned indeed. thank you both indeed. _ concerned indeed. thank you both indeed. we _ concerned indeed. thank you both indeed. we will - concerned indeed. thank you both indeed. we will hear - concerned indeed. thank you i both indeed. we will hear more from both of them in due course. coming back to you, lewis, part of the picture of

this is that labour is not remotely interested in pushing down in tiverton and honiton. lib dems not interested in interesting eating into labour votes in wakefield, that seems clear? , . . ., , clear? yes, council elections we are seeing. _ clear? yes, council elections we are seeing, and - clear? yes, council elections we are seeing, and it - clear? yes, council elections- we are seeing, and it something else that conservatives are we worried about, we are seeing the vote is effectively being redistributed to whichever non— conservative force is most likely to win. in some cases thatis likely to win. in some cases that is slightly odd because if you look at tiverton, the lib dems where third in shop she and labour was second but there was a calculation that labour — a shop she would not get the conservative transfers where the old liberal party may have been competitive but to give

you some sense of how extraordinary this is, —— shropshire these seats will change and would be redrawn a bit but if we talk broadly, tiverton for example has been a conservative seat for the best part of 180 years, or large parts of it anyway. north shropshire was basically conservative since the great reform, since britain became a democracy and these are bedrock, bedrock conservative seats and it's possible that the conservatives managed to get them at the next election but the phenomenon has been developing of historic parties taking areas for granted, of brexit continuing a realignment in the south and conservatives doing less well in some of these places and watch and worry the conservatives as well is that perhaps this is an indication that the brexit divide to some extent,

certainly in the south and south—west, may longer be yielding what it was. before 2015, lib dems were a tremendous force in the south—west of england, but now they barely have any at all. but many conservative mps have won in 2015 and will be worried about any potential resurgence. he got brexit down in the past in that respect. we will leave it there at the moment but we still do not have a result. not long now. still do not have a result. not long nova— long now. i'm hearing 20 minutes- _ long now. i'm hearing 20 minutes. from _ long now. i'm hearing 20| minutes. from wakefield. long now. i'm hearing 20 - minutes. from wakefield. we will brina minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it — minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it to _ minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it to you _ minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it to you as - minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it to you as soon - minutes. from wakefield. we will bring it to you as soon as| will bring it to you as soon as we have it. the us supreme court has struck down restrictions on carrying guns in new york which have stood for a century. those restrictions limit the ability of people to carry weapons openly, but the highest court in the land effectively overturned that position by upholding the right of americans to carry guns in public, and it's a decision which could have ramifications for other states with similar

regulations, such as california and newjersey state. the ruling comes amidst a raging debate across the us over gun control, especially after the recent school shooting in uvalde. 0ur north america editor, sarah smith, has the details. the constitutional right to bear arms is dearly held in the united states, but what that means in practice is deeply controversial. today, the supreme court ruled that individual states cannot force people to have a permit to carry guns in public. the president, myself, many of us are deeply concerned and troubled by this ruling today. it, i believe, defies common sense and the constitution of the united states. street protests and public opinion have been demanding tougher action on gun control after recent mass shootings but new york state will now have to make it easier to carry guns on the streets.

we can say with certainty, this decision has made every single one of us less safe from gun violence. in light of the ruling today, in this case by the supreme court, we cannot idly stand by and watch streets be flooded with guns due to more people being permitted to legally carry firearms in public. we must take significant action to protect our city's residents. cut. that's a wrap. many republican politicians proudly glorified gun ownership, insisting it is their right granted to them under the constitution's second amendment. this means your second amendment right to keep and bear arms shall not be denied by an unelected bureaucrat. as the supreme court makes it easier to carry guns, congress is about to make it slightly harder to buy one. democrats and republicans have now agreed some limited gun

control measures, including expanded background checks for prospective buyers under 21. this doesn't go nearly as far as what the democrats, including president biden, wanted, but it will be the first gun control legislation passed here in nearly 30 years, in a country that now has more guns in it than it has people. sarah smith, bbc news, washington. taliban officials in afghanistan say the main search for survivors from wednesday's earthquake in the south—east of the country has ended. more than 1,000 people are thought to have been killed in the remote part of the country. doctors say many children may be among the victims. relief efforts have been hampered by the destruction of already poor road and communication networks in paktika province, the worst—hit area. entire villages have been destroyed with survivors saying they are finding it difficult to bury their dead. 0ur afghanistan correspondent secunder kermani is there and has this report.

homes reduced to rubble, lives reduced to memories. "these were my son's shoes," says agha jan. his three young children were killed in the earthquake as they slept, as well as his two wives. and when the roof fell down, what did you do? translation: i ran toward my| family but everything was under the rubble, even my shovel, so i couldn't do anything. i shouted to my cousins, but when we took my family out, they were already dead. it's a 3—hour drive to the nearest big city from the worst—affected villages along largely dirt roads. here, practically every home is destroyed, every family grieving. the people here didn't have much to begin with but they've seen their homes, their possessions — you can see them scattered amongst the debris —

and their loved ones disappear in a single terrible moment. in this one home, 18 people were killed. habib gul raced back across the borderfrom pakistan to help bury 20 of his family members. translation: if the world looks on us like brothers and helps- us, we will stay here on our land. if they don't, we will leave this place, where we've spent so long, with tears in our eyes. the taliban have been flying in aid on helicopters. the search—and—rescue effort has now finished. the most pressing need is shelter. families forced to live in tents, flanked by the remnants of homes they worked so hard to construct.

khalid jan is now responsible for his five grandchildren. two of his sons and his daughter were killed in the earthquake. translation: all my son's | children have been left to me and i'm all they have left. the house and everything here has been destroyed. i'll never be able to rebuild it. aid agencies are delivering supplies, but this is a major crisis. here, prayers for the nearly 50 people killed in one tiny village alone. prayers needed, too, for those who have survived. secunder kermani, bbc news, paktika province. the latest january six committee hearing in washington has focused on the pressure they say former president trump put on thejustice department to overturn the 2020 election results. donald trump wanted to fire the acting attorney general at the time and replace him

with jeffrey clark. three formerjustice department officials testified before the committee earlier. one of them was richard donoghue. we spoke to our correspondent peter bowes, who told us about the key takeaways from this session of the hearing.

i think the main takeaway is that we are now hearing from several former officials from thejustice department about this alleged pressure that donald trump was putting on them and the department to essentially back him in his claims that he had won the election — that the result was fraudulent as a result of voter malpractice. we heard from the former acting attorney generaljeffrey rosen during the trump administration that during this crucial period leading up to january the sixth, that he had been in contact with donald trump — or, rather, donald trump had been in contact with him almost every day, perhaps with the exception of christmas day — suggesting that the justice department simply wasn't doing enough to support his claim that there ought to be an investigation into voter fraud and, as we have just been hearing, other officials spoke as well, one suggesting that

donald trump wanted the justice department to declare the election corrupt — and there has been a lot of reaction to that.

wall or tweets, even, from the wall or tweets, even, from the wall or tweets, even, from the lib dem leader suggesting a lib dem victory which clearly will be disappointing for the conservatives because tiverton and honiton is a very safe long—established conservative

seat with, as things stand, a very big conservative majority, so clearly we need to wait for the announcement but i think this does send a few shock waves through the party and through, for mps who may feel that they have similar sized majorities and actually, they will be worried and thinking about whether they will hold onto own seats, going forward. the lib dems have done this before, it's worth noting. i have overturned quite big majorities in by—elections and is this a protest vote? will these are two conservative party in a general election? that remains to be seen. but as things stand, i think there is no such thing as a safe seat. no, a lot of the discussion before the vote itself, mo, would be that this would be close and i think this is an opinion, at least, that the lib dems would push the tories hard but possibly not win. if it is as has been described by a lib

dem spokesman already talking to lewis goodall is a very clear victory, to lewis goodall is a very clearvictory, how to lewis goodall is a very clear victory, how much more damaging would you think that is for borisjohnson? i damaging would you think that is for boris johnson?— is for boris johnson? i think it is pretty _ is for boris johnson? i think it is pretty damaging. - is for boris johnson? i thinki it is pretty damaging. there is for boris johnson? i think i it is pretty damaging. there is no real escaping that. this isn't a small conservative held majority isn't a new seats, and there will be questions about there will be questions about the reasons why, whether it is frustrations on partygate, whether it is the idea that there has been perhaps too much focus on the north and middle through the government in terms of the levelling up agenda and has this meant that people in the south feel that they have been overlooked or does levelling up men levelling down for them and again, if this is happening in a place like tiverton and honiton, many other constituencies with conservative mps who will be looking around and kind of thinking are they going to be subject to the same kind of outcome going forward? ma. outcome going forward? mo, thank you — outcome going forward? mo, thank you very _ outcome going forward? mo, thank you very much. - outcome going forward? mo,

thank you very much. he - outcome going forward? mo, thank you very much. he issue, we are talking about tiverton and honiton but wakefield we understand will be declared in a few moments from now. —— ayesha. what do you think is a resounding success for labour in wakefield? i resounding success for labour in wakefield?— in wakefield? i think they win is a win. when _ in wakefield? i think they win is a win. when labour - in wakefield? i think they win is a win. when labour lost. is a win. when labour lost hartlepool people that this was an absolute crisis for keir starmer— an absolute crisis for keir starmer so a win, to win back a seat _ starmer so a win, to win back a seat which _ starmer so a win, to win back a seat which went conservative in this red — seat which went conservative in this red wall, with the achievement. obviously, if it is a — achievement. obviously, if it is a big — achievement. obviously, if it is a big swing, that is even better— is a big swing, that is even better for— is a big swing, that is even better for the labour party. but it's _ better for the labour party. but it's really interesting, hearing _ but it's really interesting, hearing from people who have been — hearing from people who have been out — hearing from people who have been out doorknocking, the issues — been out doorknocking, the issues that have been coming up in wakefield. just huge disappointment with the conservatives and the prime ministen _ conservatives and the prime minister. obviously, the cost of living _ minister. obviously, the cost of living crisis really, really affecting people and, of course, _ affecting people and, of course, the prime minister's character, _ course, the prime minister's character, partygate, the lack of ethics. _ character, partygate, the lack of ethics, the dishonesty and, of ethics, the dishonesty and, of course, _ of ethics, the dishonesty and, of course, the vote of no confidence that many

conservative mps displayed just a few _ conservative mps displayed just a few weeks ago and i think we are seeing _ a few weeks ago and i think we are seeing across the country, we are — are seeing across the country, we are seeing it in by—elections, we've seen it in devon, — by—elections, we've seen it in devon, in— by—elections, we've seen it in devon, in wakefield, we are expecting labour to have a devon, in wakefield, we are expecting land rto have a devon, in wakefield, we are expecting land rto i we are assembling and what we are seeing — assembling and what we are seeing is _ assembling and what we are seeing is this very, very interesting way of tactical voting _ interesting way of tactical voting from the voters. they are very. _ voting from the voters. they are very, very keen, showing a signal— are very, very keen, showing a signal that_ are very, very keen, showing a signal that when it comes to by—elections, whenever they get a chance — by—elections, whenever they get a chance to voice their opinion at the — a chance to voice their opinion at the ballot box, they are choosing parties that can knock out the — choosing parties that can knock out the conservative candidate and i_ out the conservative candidate and i think we will be seeing more — and i think we will be seeing more of— and i think we will be seeing more of these sort of nonaggression packs as not a sort — nonaggression packs as not a sort of— nonaggression packs as not a sort of formal pact but they will not _ sort of formal pact but they will not see the labour party or the — will not see the labour party or the liberal democrats to take — or the liberal democrats to take resources into a seat where _ take resources into a seat where the other party could knock — where the other party could knock out a conservative and as mo said. — knock out a conservative and as mo said, there is a number of seats— mo said, there is a number of seats where conservative mps mo said, there is a number of seats where conservative mp5 of the liberal democrats in second place _ the liberal democrats in second place. they are going to be feeling _ place. they are going to be feeling very, very anxious over

the weekend when they run their numbers— the weekend when they run their numbers because the liberal democrats are doing well. good -oint democrats are doing well. good point about _ democrats are doing well. good point about the _ democrats are doing well. good point about the pact _ democrats are doing well. good point about the pact of - point about the pact of convenience as you put it. let's have a quick look at the scene in wakefield for you because that's where we are waiting for someone to appear at that microphone, behind world—class wakefield. we will get to that when we can. i was going to say we have got, yes, sean kemp as well with us, sean is special adviser to the lib dems during the if i can call them the coalition years. good to see you as well. ed davey has gone very early, hasn't he, with his tweet about the need for a bigger hammer.- for a bigger hammer. does it sur-rise for a bigger hammer. does it surprise you? _ for a bigger hammer. does it surprise you? a _ for a bigger hammer. does it surprise you? a little - for a bigger hammer. does it surprise you? a little bit. - surprise you? a little bit. traditionally _ surprise you? a little bit. traditionally what - surprise you? a little bit. traditionally what you're i surprise you? a little bit. - traditionally what you're meant to do— traditionally what you're meant to do is— traditionally what you're meant to do is say— traditionally what you're meant to do is say it _ traditionally what you're meant to do is say it is _ traditionally what you're meant to do is say it is neck— traditionally what you're meant to do is say it is neck and - to do is say it is neck and neck— to do is say it is neck and neck and _ to do is say it is neck and neck and we _ to do is say it is neck and neck and we wait - to do is say it is neck and neck and we wait to - to do is say it is neck and neck and we wait to see i to do is say it is neck and - neck and we wait to see what happens _ neck and we wait to see what happens and _ neck and we wait to see what happens and we _ neck and we wait to see what happens and we do _ neck and we wait to see what happens and we do not - neck and we wait to see what happens and we do not know| happens and we do not know until— happens and we do not know until the _ happens and we do not know until the results— happens and we do not know until the results are - happens and we do not know until the results are in - happens and we do not know until the results are in but i. until the results are in but i think— until the results are in but i think they— until the results are in but i think they are _ until the results are in but i think they are playing - until the results are in but i think they are playing a - until the results are in but i . think they are playing a canny game, — think they are playing a canny game, trying _ think they are playing a canny game, trying to— think they are playing a canny game, trying to make - think they are playing a canny game, trying to make the - think they are playing a canny. game, trying to make the night about— game, trying to make the night about the — game, trying to make the night about the lib _ game, trying to make the night about the lib dem _ game, trying to make the night about the lib dem victory - game, trying to make the night about the lib dem victory that. about the lib dem victory that they— about the lib dem victory that they obviously _ about the lib dem victory that they obviously think _ about the lib dem victory that they obviously think will - they obviously think will happen—

they obviously think will happen and _ they obviously think will happen and not - they obviously think will happen and not the - they obviously think will i happen and not the labour victory _ happen and not the labour victory. they— happen and not the labour victory. they are _ happen and not the labour victory. they are doing - happen and not the labour victory. they are doing is i victory. they are doing is quite _ victory. they are doing is quite punchy— victory. they are doing is quite punchy tweet - victory. they are doing is quite punchy tweet and l victory. they are doing is. quite punchy tweet and bit victory. they are doing is - quite punchy tweet and bit more confident— quite punchy tweet and bit more confident predictions— quite punchy tweet and bit more confident predictions and - quite punchy tweet and bit more confident predictions and you i confident predictions and you would — confident predictions and you would expect, _ confident predictions and you would expect, basically- confident predictions and you would expect, basically i- confident predictions and you | would expect, basically i think to make — would expect, basically i think to make the _ would expect, basically i think to make the night _ would expect, basically i think to make the night and - would expect, basically i think. to make the night and morning's coverage — to make the night and morning's coverage about _ to make the night and morning's coverage about them _ to make the night and morning's coverage about them rather i to make the night and morning'sj coverage about them rather than labour~ — coverage about them rather than labour. ., , , , labour. nonetheless, if they have overturned _ labour. nonetheless, if they have overturned 24,000 i have overturned 24,000 majority, i wonder what you think that says. how much is that about, well, it may be to a certain degree discussed with the disgraced and departed tory mp on the scene, it may be about the cost of living crisis or partygate, but how much is actually really about the lib dems? ~ ., ., .,, dems? well, to quote robin kirkb it dems? well, to quote robin kirkby it is — dems? well, to quote robin kirkby it is travel _ dems? well, to quote robin kirkby it is travel to - kirkby it is travel to agriculture - kirkby it is travel to agriculture listed i kirkby it is travel to i agriculture listed and i kirkby it is travel to - agriculture listed and i lib dems— agriculture listed and i lib dems their— agriculture listed and i lib dems their role _ agriculture listed and i lib dems their role in - agriculture listed and i lib dems their role in the i dems their role in the conservatives- dems their role in the conservatives entry. dems their role in the i conservatives entry but i dems their role in the - conservatives entry but i think it is about _ conservatives entry but i think it is about the _ conservatives entry but i think it is about the job _ conservatives entry but i think it is about the job that - conservatives entry but i think it is about the job that ed i it is about the job that ed davey— it is about the job that ed davey has _ it is about the job that ed davey has done - it is about the job that ed davey has done in - it is about the job that ed | davey has done in making it is about the job that ed i davey has done in making the lib davey has done in making the lib dems _ davey has done in making the lib dems a _ davey has done in making the lib dems a sort _ davey has done in making the lib dems a sort of— davey has done in making the lib dems a sort of more i lib dems a sort of more noticeable _ lib dems a sort of more noticeable voice - lib dems a sort of more noticeable voice in i lib dems a sort of more i noticeable voice in british politics— noticeable voice in british politics and _ noticeable voice in british politics and giving - noticeable voice in british politics and giving them l noticeable voice in british politics and giving them a noticeable voice in british. politics and giving them a bit more — politics and giving them a bit more confidence _ politics and giving them a bit more confidence and - politics and giving them a bitj more confidence and identity after— more confidence and identity after what _ more confidence and identity after what was _ more confidence and identity after what was a _ more confidence and identity after what was a rocky - more confidence and identity after what was a rocky few i after what was a rocky few

years _ after what was a rocky few years. by—elections - after what was a rocky few years. by—elections and i after what was a rocky fewl years. by—elections and big by—elections_ years. by—elections and big by—elections and _ years. by—elections and big by—elections and things i years. by—elections and big| by—elections and things like this are _ by—elections and things like this are always _ by—elections and things like this are always partly- by—elections and things like this are always partly about| this are always partly about unpopularity _ this are always partly about unpopularity with _ this are always partly about unpopularity with the - unpopularity with the government, - unpopularity with the government, you i unpopularity with the i government, you cannot unpopularity with the - government, you cannot deny unpopularity with the _ government, you cannot deny the cost of— government, you cannot deny the cost of living _ government, you cannot deny the cost of living crisis, _ government, you cannot deny the cost of living crisis, the _ cost of living crisis, the impact _ cost of living crisis, the impact of— cost of living crisis, the impact of partygate i cost of living crisis, the| impact of partygate and cost of living crisis, the _ impact of partygate and someone and the _ impact of partygate and someone and the particular— and the particular circumstances i and the particulari circumstances this and the particular— circumstances this by—election all sort — circumstances this by—election all sort of _ circumstances this by—election all sort of contribute _ circumstances this by—election all sort of contribute but i circumstances this by—election all sort of contribute but this l all sort of contribute but this is the — all sort of contribute but this is the third _ all sort of contribute but this is the third of— all sort of contribute but this is the third of these - is the third of these by—elections- is the third of these by—elections now. is the third of these . by—elections now that is the third of these i by—elections now that i is the third of these - by—elections now that i find myself _ by—elections now that i find myself talking _ by—elections now that i find myself talking about - by—elections now that i find myself talking about and i by—elections now that i find i myself talking about and people say those — myself talking about and people say those were _ myself talking about and people say those were a _ myself talking about and people say those were a very _ myself talking about and people say those were a very is - say those were a very is pacific— say those were a very is pacific set _ say those were a very is pacific set of— say those were a very is i pacific set of circumstances but it — pacific set of circumstances but it may _ pacific set of circumstances but it may be _ pacific set of circumstances but it may be that - pacific set of circumstances but it may be that the i pacific set of circumstances but it may be that the lib l pacific set of circumstances i but it may be that the lib dems have _ but it may be that the lib dems have got— but it may be that the lib dems have got their _ but it may be that the lib dems have got their mojo _ but it may be that the lib dems have got their mojo back - but it may be that the lib dems have got their mojo back a i but it may be that the lib dems have got their mojo back a bit. i have got their mojo back a bit. they— have got their mojo back a bit. they are — have got their mojo back a bit. they are back— have got their mojo back a bit. they are back knowing - have got their mojo back a bit. they are back knowing how i have got their mojo back a bit. they are back knowing how toi they are back knowing how to fight — they are back knowing how to fight on — they are back knowing how to fight on the _ they are back knowing how to fight on the ground _ they are back knowing how to fight on the ground in- fight on the ground in by—elections- fight on the ground in by—elections like i fight on the ground in by—elections like this| fight on the ground in- by—elections like this and have -ot by—elections like this and have got a _ by—elections like this and have got a bit — by—elections like this and have got a bit of— by—elections like this and have got a bit of a _ by—elections like this and have got a bit of a spring _ by—elections like this and have got a bit of a spring in- by—elections like this and have got a bit of a spring in their. got a bit of a spring in their step— got a bit of a spring in their stepand— got a bit of a spring in their step and people _ got a bit of a spring in their step and people can - got a bit of a spring in their step and people can see i got a bit of a spring in their. step and people can see that and feel— step and people can see that and feel more _ step and people can see that and feel more confident i step and people can see that and feel more confident in i and feel more confident in voting _ and feel more confident in voting for— and feel more confident in voting for them. _ and feel more confident in voting for them.— and feel more confident in voting for them. lewis goodall is with me _ voting for them. lewis goodall is with me also _ voting for them. lewis goodall is with me also and _ voting for them. lewis goodall is with me also and your- is with me also and your reference to whether it was this or that, it's a malaise and that sort of gradually sweeps like a cloud across the country. i sweeps like a cloud across the count . ~ ., , country. i think what is important _ country. i think what is important about - country. i think what is important about these| country. i think what is - important about these results and the local election results as well as that in a way that was almost unimaginable, certainly december 2019 and perhaps even a year ago, you

can see a path to a non— conservative majority in the house of commons and it does not mean a labour majority who have to win124 seats to get a majority of one, that would require a serious swing across different parts of the country but what you can potentially see is a labour party doing better again in the so—called red wall, re—establishing itself in wales, they had some good election results there for example in the senate results last year, the lib dems starting to make a resurgence, not in some of the old south—west heartlands but in new places in the south east of england where they have traditionally inaudible but as a result the post—brexit inaudible challenging the conservatives —— senedd. the snp continuing their hegemony in scotland, then you can potentially see a non— conservative majority at the next general election of some form or other because remember, the conservatives are in a position now where they have no potential coalition partners, even the dup and lib dem, even

the dup potentially would not be on the cards as they were in 2017 so they have to get a majority, the only need to lose 40 majority, the only need to lose a0 cents to lose their majority and they have a big majority but not so big that it is insurmountable audio cuts out last october the conservative party conference when it looks like borisjohnson was hegemonic and you could see the path opening up through a combination of tactical voting, and lib dem resurgence, some labour recovery and so on. i labour recovery and so on. i was asking ayesha just now and we will cover more of this in a moment is what would count as a very good result for labour. ayesha's view is a win. doesn't need to be significantly more than a win? i think inevitably, what you were saying was right, what the lib dems are trying to do they are trying to make this known about them. it would be the first labour victory from the conservatives in the

by—election since 2012 and in that sense that we