there. thank you very much for your time. this is bbc news, the headlines: the extreme heatwave across southern europe, is continuing to intensify. wildfires have now spread to the coast of croatia and the greek island of crete where they have caused widespread destruction. in spain and portugal, over three hundred people are thought to have died from the heat. moscow has ordered its military to step up the offensive in ukraine, as russian missiles continue to strike cities, across the country. an official statement said their aim is to prevent strikes by ukrainian forces, on eastern regions no longer controlled by kyiv. the united nations has extended its mission in haiti for a further 12 months, after petrol shortages and gang

warfare in port—au—prince, led to greater instability. the un says at least 230 people were killed in five days of fighting, in the capital earlier this month. now on bbc news, dateline london with shaun ley. hello and welcome to dateline. this week — two nations with caretaker leaders and problems that cannot wait. in israel, a coalition has collapsed. joe biden has been in a middle east seeking more saudi oil.

they and the israelis want the united states to pledge action against iran. here in the uk, the famous and not—so—famous five are vying to succeed borisjohnson as leader of the conservative party and prime minister. but in a context of tax cuts, is that the answer to what even ministers describe as a cost of living crisis? in the studio to discuss all of that, an american journalist and senior writer at bloomberg business week, based in london since the late 1970s, he writes on arab affairs. ian is a columnist with the mail newspapers, he has reported from all around the middle east during his time, and was a speech writer on david cameron's successful general election campaign in 2010. welcome to you all. let's begin in the middle east. stefanie, joe biden is engaged in this middle east trip, started in israel, met

the palestinian leader, then on to saudi arabia to meet mohammed bin salman, the controversial crown prince. what does he want from this visit? what is he seeking from saudi arabia, particularly? i think this is a trip that you could see he did not really want to make. it is controversial, particularly in the democratic party, because of mohammed bin salman�*s record on human rights, because of it is being seen as a backtracking on his promises on climate change. biden has billed this as primarily about regional security, about, you know, fostering greater ties between israel and arab countries under the abraham accords, pushing that further. you know, building, possibly extending the yemen ceasefire. but ultimately, it is about getting more oilfrom saudi arabia.

that is probably the most challenging part of the trip. from what we understand, he is unlikely to leave with any concrete commitments on that front. it remains to be seen. but some people are viewing this as a sort of reward for 0pec committing to increased production injune. but in reality, i think that the scope for both saudi arabia and the emirates to increase production is pretty limited. i think between them they have the capacity to increase production by something like 3 million barrels a day at best. it sounds a lot, but it is not really. it is like 3% of global output. it is seen as more or less the amount that russia might produce and be taken out by sanctions by the end of the year, but it is not going to move the dial much in terms of prices at the pump, so to speak. it raises a question in my mind, what happened to energy independence, which was something donald trump boasted about when he was in the white

house? well, i think i was more of a trump slogan, a bit of bravado. the us, of course, is a major world producer of oil and energy, but it is not like the us did not import energy products. russia, for instance, accounts for, like, before the war, accounted for about 8% of us oil imports. the us is tightly integrated with world oil markets. i think that was a bit of a misnomer. it is being used by republicans to attack biden on the right. you know, you really needs to do something ahead of the midterms to try to show that he is responding to these rising energy prices. four months or so away. abdel, the relationship between, in particular, mohammed bin salman and trump is very close, not least because of the personal relationship

between him and the president's son—in—law. we do not think the saudis can offer much, are they pleased about this visit? or do they remain sceptics about the biden presidency? you know, biden was very tough with the saudis. he said he will isolate mohammed bin salman, the crown prince. because of the murder of the journalist jamal khashoggi. also, he avoided most of middle eastern leaders. even egyptian rulers and other parts of the middle east. i believe now he is there saying i'm sorry. he wants to achieve four things — first to salvage the relationship between the united states, strategic

relationship between the united states and saudi arabia, which lasted for 80 years and recently it has been deteriorating completely. the second thing is to put pressure on saudi and united arab emirates and other oil producing countries to increase their production, hoping that they could bring the prices of oil down. but you accept what stephanie says about it is limited, a marginal impact. the third thing is how to integrate israel in the middle east to make some sort of integration and to be an integral part of the middle east by normalisation of relationships. the fourth thing is how to confront iran. iran is considered a threat to the middle east and america. he actually declared when he visited israel that they will prevent iran from producing weapons. producing nuclear weapons. so he is saying that he wants to establish some sort of arab nato in order

to confront iran. that is intriguing. ian, just before we move on directly to iran, which is clearly where it puts them all, whenjoe biden was in israel, he said he was pleased to be injerusalem, in the capital of israel — which, of course, really was a concession made by donald trump when he was president. it looks like the biden presidency will stay in jerusalem. notwithstanding it remains a contested city between the israelis and the palestinians and therefore the palestinian backers in the arab world. what other ways do you think donald trump has rewritten the rules of engagement for? it is very interesting that - you had biden, who was critical of trump's policy, but he has done very little _ on the two states.

he paid lip service but there is very little there. - he did very little in. terms of offering hope towards the palestinians. a very brief meeting - with the palestinian leader, a little bit of aid, - not much more than that. then, of course, he is having. to turn his whole policy upside down on saudi arabia. in many ways, what you are . seeing i think is the weakness of biden, who is doing . pretty much what trump was doing in terms of policy, with one or two exceptions. i at the same time, turning around on all the things i he was saying earlier. if i was watching outside, j if i was perhaps president zelensky looking at this, i i would be quite nervous. america has betrayed - afghanistan, which has done the same to other parts, - like iraq and the middle east, and is now turning - turtle on saudi arabia. it is not great when you have . got the world's most important democratic power whose word seems so subject to erosion, i should we say. stephanie? i think part of the trip is about countering russian and chinese influence in the region. i think that is very much on the agenda. you know, in dubai, for instance, you see all these

russians moving in to avoid sanctions. that is sort of happening behind the scenes. i'm sure there will be words said about that. so, i think it is hard to determine whether or not this will be determined a success orjust a complete waste of time in the end. the fact that it has taken so long to happen, that he has been in office for 1.5 years and he has not made any trip to the middle east, and he has made several trips to europe, i think it is long overdue, kind of as an attempt to re—engage. i agree that the threat from iran hangs over this whole trip. i think it is a sign of how iran is a greater threat and that the palestinian issue has receded. they are willing to put the coalition against iran ahead of any palestinian concerns.

there is a race now between the americans and russians in the region. lavrov, the foreign minister of russia, was there and putin — vladimir putin is going to visit tehran next week, so i believe he will strike some sort of alliance and access with the iranians, maybe supplying them with s—400s, which is their missiles. maybe he will learn from the iranians how to confront the sanctions — the american sanctions against iran. so, i believe middle eastern people have lost trust in the americans, to be honest. biden, when he came, he was championing human rights, you know, he was against the death of the saudi journalist, and he is saying that he will not shake hands with mohammed bin salman. now, he is turning everything

around and he is trying to save himself, his popularity in the united states, and to beg them to help them with oil and gas. that is the name of the game now. it raises the question that in a sense, it is a bit like coming back to the future. we were talking about how europe is dividing between the nato side, the russian side, just as it is between the west and the soviets. now, we hear that the same is happening in the middle east, just as it did in soviet times. what i think is really tragicl about western policy is that in their efforts to curtail. iran, all it managed to do is strengthen iran. invading iraq actually. ending up strengthening the hand of iran. again, we are seeing the same, but they are being sluggish - in their response i to assad's brutality.

they had 0bama not living up to his threat that if the red i line was crossed and chemical attacks, he did not do - anything. that gave putin space to move on and establish links to suchl an extent that syria is now, along with north korea, - one of only two countries - in the world which recognises the moscow stooge republics. donetsk and lu hansk. all the policy seems to be - doing is enhancing and helping because it has been so badly done. - stephanie, you hear the temporary caretaker minister of israel, now that this coalition government has collapsed, in a sense offering a bit of cover, saying he might sign an iran nuclear deal if it was beefed up — is there any prospect of it being beefed up, or is the view

now that because of ukraine, because of the global inflation, all the rest of it, this is no longer the game in town? the nuclear deal with iran has happened and it is not coming back? biden did say that he wanted to revive talks with iran over the nuclear deal right before going on this trip. strange timing on that, since he knows that many of the people he was going to meet are very against the deal and view iran as an unreliable partner. so, i think most people think that the iran deal is dead in the water, that it is going to be impossible to revive given everything that has happened. and that it is — i do not think it will go anywhere at this point. there is so much opposition to it in congress right now. one other thing that is worth touching on isjust the politics inside israel. this coalition was unique in the history of israel because, for the first time, there were arab ministers serving.

in the end, that part was one of the reason is that it collapsed. but notwithstanding that, do you think in any sense that has changed the dynamic within israeli politics? could it have a longer—term impact? it was a precedent and arabs actuallyjoined the israeli government for the first time for 74 years, so it was a controversial thing among the arabs, whether inside israel or outside, but this government did not last, simply because, you know, it was about eight parties participating in a coalition. with one common cause, getting benjamin netanyahu out of office! i believe now israeli politics are in disarray — like british politics, to be honest! so, what will happen — there will be an election in november, so whether — it's the fifth election in less than four— years, so whether they will

have a strong government... so, it means israel would not be able to decide in any issues — especially the two—state solution. ok, now the israeli prime ministers said that they accept two—state solution, but it isjust talks. there is no action. and i believe the whole region now at the edge of the war — lebanon, because of the lebanese gas, you know, and on the edge of the war in iran, because iran is really on the edge of producing nuclear weapons, so we expect a war anytime in that part of the world. so, the israeli are threatening that they are going to bomb "an, so— it is a state of uncertainty for the whole middle east. ian, just on that question of potentially some kind of resolution in terms of israel and the palestinians, it looks pretty bleak at the moment. imean, you i mean, you met malcolm to bus.

—— bakhmut a bus. i mean, you met makmoud abbas. there is clearly not much warmth there. there are americans who think that he is not the greatest interlock in terms of proposing the cause, however much history and support you may have had. it looks as bleak as it has for a long time. i i think there's not. the interest, not the commitment to it. i think biden did not seem passionate about it. - normally, predecessors pretend they have a plan to get things i going again. he barely even did that. the palestinian leadership is terrible, whether- the leadership and gaza or the west bank, - it is corrupt, it is awful. it's repressive. it does not allow— it's repressive. it does not allow pe0ple _ it's repressive. it does not allow people a _ it's repressive. it does not allow people a voice. - it is the israeli leadership looks like a basket case, i the government at the moment, because of their extreme - form of pr. and i actually would like to cpr — and i actually would like to cpr here _ and i actually would like to cpr here but they're very i cpr here but they're very extreme _ cpr here but they're very extreme version- cpr here but they're very extreme version of- cpr here but they're very extreme version of pr. .

it allows so many parties and it hasjust become . impossible to find a strong and stable government, i to use a catch - phrase popular here. one point which is extremely important, now the west bank is changing, now the extremists are having the upper hand, and now there are a lot of attacks against israeli targets inside, simply because people are frustrated. there is no hope for the policy _ even biden, when he visited, he did not pay any attention to the two—state solution. but, 0k, what are you going to do? _ but, 0k, what are you going to do? even— but, 0k, what are you going to do? even plo are still on the american _ do? even plo are still on the american terrorists list until this— american terrorists list until this moment. and he never established a consulate for the palestinians, american consulate, so i think this trip actually added to the problems in the middle east. lets move on to talk about the british conservatives. ian, you have this past connection, albeit brief, with the british conservative party. we have the top three candidates. as we are speaking on this programme, sitting here together, there is the first

of a number of debates taking place. they will continue through the weekend. they will then continue beyond the weekend as the number of candidates is reduced on monday this week by british conservatives voting again, their mps, to whittle the list down. the three frontrunners are pretty clear — rishi sunak, the former chancellor, resigned and helped bring down boris johnson. liz truss, the foreign secretary. and penny mordaunt, who is a relatively unknown junior minister. give us a sense of what your impressions are of these three and what they might mean, if anything different, for britain? well, i think they will be different. | because they are not boris johnson _ because they are not boris johnson and _ because they are not boris johnson and they- because they are not boris johnson and they are - because they are not boris johnson and they are not l johnson and they are not theresa _ johnson and they are not theresa may. _ each prime minister brings a different flavour- and different character. i think it has been very. interesting to see how far the conservative - party has moved in recent years, so that everyone is now a brexiteer, no—one accepts . that brexit is causing anyi problems, so there is this pretence that it is

all going great. . the fact that even the most| moderate candidates accept the rwanda asylum deal, j which is to send refugees and to pay a dictator- to host them in rwanda — and a pretty repellent dictator at that — - everyone has signed up to that, which is a sign of where - they in — terms of immigration. when it comes to tax cuts, there is an argument — - a very strong argument — - as to whether you should have tax cuts now or hold off. and rishi sunak, as former- chancellor, has been putting up taxes, partly to cope - with the impact of covid. he is saying we cannot do any tax cuts now but we will do i them- in the future. but essentially, everyone i is getting away with saying we want tax cuts, a smaller state, i but no—one is actually defining what is the smaller state - and what will be cut. so, there is this . really strong unity but different characters, . i think, with each of them. liz truss is a sort _ of wannabe margaret thatcher, who for a long time has been cosplaying her — l doing pictures in tanks like margaret thatcher and things like this. rishi sunak, an interesting, | very smart guy, but to some

extent possibly hindered by the fact of his wife's i extreme wealth. and he worked for goldman sachs _ he kept a green card that allowed him to work in america after he had become a politician and a cabinet minister. what theresa may used to call perhaps a citizen of the world, a citizen of nowhere. a citizen of nowhere! with the inflation and cost of living issues, i that is problematic. and penny mordaunt is this sort of blank canvas - for many people. and that is a strength. people can project- onto her what they want. she was a brexiteer - but she is also very socially liberal. and making people nervous, stephanie? it is a really interesting - mixture, and she has a sort of navy background which ticks boxes in the conservative - party. so, she is an interesting mixture of pot pourri - policies and background. i was standing next to her

party group on wednesday evening trying to do a broadcast. there was a brass band playing, notjust various military themes and the national anthem, even a selection from mary poppins, which was rather intriguing. we were getting a spoonful of sugar to help the medicine go down, which i wondered how that would translate to policy terms! yeah, i think this leadership race is so different from previous ones because there is no clear winner that has emerged quickly, like it has in the past. and the other thing is because the tories have been in power for 12 years, they are all coming out with these ways to fix various problems that we are facing — and pretending like they have not actually been in powerfor 12 years, that they are running against the establishment, and that they do not bear any responsibility for it, which is very odd. and i think all of them, barring rishi sunak, are proposing unfunded tax cuts and the sort of bonfire of brexit regulations as the way to kick—start the economy. and i think that is not really going to cut it in the end. what we are facing in the winter is a very bleak

scenario of energy crisis, rising gas prices, putin probably cutting off gas from europe, and already the nhs is on its knees. and i do not think any of them have the ideas to really solve the problems at hand. and, i mean, it isjust remarkable that there has been four prime ministers in 12 years. it has been governing by chaos. how can you set an economic policy effectively if there is just so much crisis? you're governing, really, by crisis? and everyone wants to spend more — and everyone wants to spend more money— and everyone wants to spend more money on _ and everyone wants to spend more money on defence, - and everyone wants to spend more money on defence, of i more money on defence, of course, _ more money on defence, of course, as_ more money on defence, of course, as well. _ more money on defence, of course, as well.— more money on defence, of course, as well. now they do, es. i have been in this country for 40 years, i have never seen this country facing this stagnation — political stagnation. and, to be honest, problems after problems, scandals, stabbing in the back, divisions. and you can see the political process is not actually as it used to be. i do not want to sound like an old man.

perish the thought! this is the fact, to be honest, shaun. yes. now, we have hopefully some changes. this country is drowning, to be honest, yeah. there must be strong leadership. the conservative party, the labour party, these two pillars of the british politics, they have to move to save the country. now we have the inflation 10%, we have problems of energy, you know, public services are really deteriorating, as stephanie said. so, you know, this country should be saved. i believe there is a chance. so, i hope it will be fruitful. there is an opportunity. sometimes, we have to wait. there is still some time to wait until we have a new prime minister, ian. two candidates are a little way back, next week we will get it

out of the final two, then they go out to conservative party members, we will not get a new prime minister until september. no, and of course, to win this battle, you've got to appeal l first of all to mps . in a party which has basically been made by brexit and borisjohnson, so it has. shifted to a more populist right. i and then, you're going - to appeal to the constituency activists, _ who tend to be older and quite conservative. and then you have somehow got to flip _ and then you have somehow got to flip an— and then you have somehow got to flip an appeal— and then you have somehow got to flip an appeal to _ and then you have somehow got to flip an appeal to the - and then you have somehow got to flip an appeal to the whole . to flip an appeal to the whole process _ it has a slightly odd process. this is the problem i have with this process, the next prime minister will be elected by 150,000 tory... do not actually know because they do not give us the figures any longer. we note that they are overwhelmingly white, mostly male, mostly older, and more of them supported brexit by far than the country as a whole. and so, i think it raises questions about the legitimacy of the government. i mean, i do not think any tory leader would dare to call an election now. with labour ten points ahead. it is possible they will hold one quickly if they have .

a bubble in the polls. we have to finish, forgive me. i'm happy... ten seconds. i am happy rishi sunak is top for the time being. integration is excellent. thank you all very much. just one last thought, since we are going to get heavy temperatures in the uk next week, up to perhaps a0 degrees — an emergency minister has been appointed for that. brings back memories of the minister for the drought back in 1976. 200 years, there hadn't been a summer as hot as it was in 1976. the then prime minister appointed dennis howe as the minister for the drought. a few days later, it began to rain. let's hope the rains are coming soon. whatever you're doing next week, keep well, keep covered, and keep indoors if you can. that's datelined london. back at the same time next week, whatever the weather brings! from all of us, have a good time. bye— bye.

you've probably heard already that a national emergency has been declared on account of this unprecedented heatwave. the english temperature record, which is also that of the uk, is going to get obliterated in the next few days, as indeed will the record for wales. in scotland, probably getting there or thereabouts, northern ireland perhaps just missing out. but this is an unprecedented spell of hot weather. a met office red extreme weather warning — the first one ever issued for all these areas of england, including many of england's largest cities — that's in force for monday and tuesday, the peak of the heatwave. but across sunday through to tuesday, for england, wales, southern scotland, we have a widespread amber weather warning. impacts to health, impacts to infrastructure are expected. over the next few hours, seeing some showers push into northern scotland. look at these temperatures —

this is as cool as our weather gets for the next few days, so if you're up early sunday morning, take advantage of this cool air, open your doors, open your curtains, open your windows, let that cool air into your house and into your flat and the first couple of the hours of the morning, shut everything — shut the windows, shut the doors, shut your curtains, shut that exceptional heat out. we're going to see temperatures building widely into the 30s across england and wales as well. what follows on monday is a spell of dangerous heat. we've got sunshine across the board and temperatures hitting a0 degrees celsius or so. the current uk temperature record is 38.7, so this is going to be the hottest day we've ever had in our country. and it's notjust the daytime temperatures — overnight, 10 o'clock monday night, we're still widely into the 30s — that's going to be horrendous for getting a good night's sleep, hence the importance of keeping your flats and your houses as cool as possible. tuesday, we start to see some storms break out in the west,

bringing some slightly fresher air into western areas but otherwise, it's another day of dangerous heat. this heat is dangerous for people's health, so you can mitigate some of those problems. i've already mentioned some tips — keeping curtains closed, particularly on the sunny side of your house. 0nly open windows and doors if it is actually cooler outside — that would often only be at the end of the night. drink plenty of water and remember, a cool shower can help you cope.

hello and welcome to bbc news. the heatwave in southern europe is intensifying, with wildfires forcing thousands of people to flee towns and villages. a number of people have already died, and temperatures are predicted to go well above a0 celsius, in parts of spain and portugal. scientists say climate change is a factor in the severity of the heatwave. more than 11,000 people have been forced to leave france's south—western gironde region, from where our europe correspondent, jessica parker, sent us this report.

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