hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing us tomorrow. with me are miatta fahnbulleh, the chief executive of the new economics foundation, which is a left—wing economics think thank. and also with me is annabel denham, who's director of communications at the institute of economic affairs, or iea, a free market think tank. welcome to you both, we already have a few titles in, let's look at them.

the independent, which says soaring profits at energy companies are sparking outrage after they pass billions of pounds of profits onto shareholders. higher energy bills are also on the front of the financial times, as british gas owner centrica urges the government to support households as their profits also soar. the daily express leads with what they call an "exclusive" message from rishi sunak, who is vowing to double the number of foreign criminals who are deported if he becomes prime minister. he's been speaking with liz truss at a hustings at leeds in the last few hours. the guardian has a photo of a giant bull on its frontpage from the opening ceremony of the commonwealth games in birmingham. the metro goes with a court case involving met police

who worked with sarah everard's killer, wayne cousins. the energy story is dominating a lot of the broadsheets. what do you make of the broadsheets. what do you make of it, the energy firms profit surges, that's the splash from the guardian. this is the first dividend for shareholder roles in three years? for shareholder roles in three ears? , . , for shareholder roles in three ears? , , ., years? this really underscores how volatile the — years? this really underscores how volatile the sector— years? this really underscores how volatile the sector can _ years? this really underscores how volatile the sector can be, - years? this really underscores how volatile the sector can be, and - volatile the sector can be, and that's not something that's conveyed very often in the headlines in the front pages in the newspapers. of course if you are working for the pr team at some of these firms it's extremely unfortunate that it's coming the day experts wore average bills could hit nearly £4000 a year, and here they are posting these record earnings. but nonetheless, it's very difficult, as the ceo has

said, for people to see the words profit or dividend when they are suffering. he's absolutely right, times will get immensely difficult over the coming months, and the sums people will be paying are absolutely eye watering. it's worth mentioning that the government has actually known this has been coming, the profitability it has been coming to those companies from the old renewables sector, 80% of renewables based on an old scheme which enables companies to charge wholesale prices as subsidy. nobody should be getting as subsidy. nobody should be getting a subsidy for the different types of energy, we should be pricing carbon and letting the market decide the best options. so there's a lot more to the story then perhaps initially meets the i, it's extremely complex, a lot of it boils down to the net zero strategy the government is currently pursuing, as well as

tinkering in the energy markets in the last two decades in an effort to pick winners, and ways that's driven up pick winners, and ways that's driven up costs for consumers. nonetheless i'm sure it will lead to calls for higher taxes, a higher windfall tax on those oil and gas companies which i think would be a mistake.— i think would be a mistake. we've not a i think would be a mistake. we've got a windfall _ i think would be a mistake. we've got a windfall tax _ i think would be a mistake. we've got a windfall tax on _ i think would be a mistake. we've got a windfall tax on north - i think would be a mistake. we've got a windfall tax on north sea i i think would be a mistake. we'vei got a windfall tax on north sea oil and gas— that is politically divisive, of course, what more do you think the government could and should do? 50 you think the government could and should do? sol you think the government could and should do? ., �* ~ , should do? so i don't think it is actually that — should do? so i don't think it is actually that complicated. - should do? so i don't think it is actually that complicated. i - should do? so i don't think it is i actually that complicated. i think the energy market, which, by the way, _ the energy market, which, by the way, energy is an essential good people _ way, energy is an essential good people need, heating your homes is absurdly— people need, heating your homes is absurdly essential, and that market has been _ absurdly essential, and that market has been written for a very long time _ has been written for a very long time the — has been written for a very long time. the same time people see eye watering _ time. the same time people see eye watering bill rises projecting to be £4000 _ watering bill rises projecting to be £4000 a — watering bill rises projecting to be £4000 a year, this company is taking excess _ £4000 a year, this company is taking excess profits of 1.3 billion pounds

over the _ excess profits of 1.3 billion pounds over the last six months, we have shell_ over the last six months, we have shell reporting profits of £10,000,000,000- these shell reporting profits of £10,000,000,000— these are huge sums, _ £10,000,000,000— these are huge sums, which suggests something is not right _ sums, which suggests something is not right i— sums, which suggests something is not right. i think that windfall tax needs_ not right. i think that windfall tax needs to — not right. i think that windfall tax needs to be tougher, because the government could have set it at a more _ government could have set it at a more extensive rate to get more money, _ more extensive rate to get more money, and it offsets it with that tax relief. — money, and it offsets it with that tax relief, which is £19 billion a year from — tax relief, which is £19 billion a year from taxpayer monies — i think all of— year from taxpayer monies — i think all of that— year from taxpayer monies — i think all of that needs to be changed in order_ all of that needs to be changed in order to _ all of that needs to be changed in order to create the space to protect consumers. i don't think we should take as _ consumers. i don't think we should take as given that that cat halfs —— cap take as given that that cat halfs —— can has— take as given that that cat halfs —— can has to — take as given that that cat halfs —— cap has to increase. why doesn't it do the _ cap has to increase. why doesn't it do the job— cap has to increase. why doesn't it do the job in— cap has to increase. why doesn't it do the job in protecting consumers and then— do the job in protecting consumers and then cross subsidise that by asking _ and then cross subsidise that by asking energy producers that are making _ asking energy producers that are making super profits to take the hit, making super profits to take the hit. rather— making super profits to take the hit, ratherthan making super profits to take the hit, rather than asking people who 'ust hit, rather than asking people who just cant— hit, rather than asking people who just can't absorb these price rises to take _ just can't absorb these price rises

to take the — just can't absorb these price rises to take the hit. but just can't absorb these price rises to take the hit.— to take the hit. but isn't it more completed _ to take the hit. but isn't it more completed than _ to take the hit. but isn't it more completed than that, _ to take the hit. but isn't it more completed than that, that - to take the hit. but isn't it more i completed than that, that they are different parts of the company? so if they own assets and are making money on that, but in terms of the delivery, they are not making that much money. delivery, they are not making that much money-— delivery, they are not making that muchmone. . , ,�* .,~ much money. which is why i'm talking about across — much money. which is why i'm talking about across the _ much money. which is why i'm talking about across the sector. _ much money. which is why i'm talking about across the sector. i'm _ much money. which is why i'm talking about across the sector. i'm not - about across the sector. i'm not saying _ about across the sector. i'm not saying the — about across the sector. i'm not saying the retail profit are making -- retail _ saying the retail profit are making —— retail market are making super norrnal— —— retail market are making super normal profits. but they are making millions _ normal profits. but they are making millions more than they did last year _ millions more than they did last year the — millions more than they did last year. the problem is the excess profits— year. the problem is the excess profits are — year. the problem is the excess profits are being made on the production side, and that's why you need _ production side, and that's why you need intervention in order to take those _ need intervention in order to take those profits out the production side in — those profits out the production side in order to cross subsidise the retail— side in order to cross subsidise the retail side — side in order to cross subsidise the retail side. the market has to be looked _ retail side. the market has to be looked across the peas, and what's clear— looked across the peas, and what's clear to _ looked across the peas, and what's clear to me as it is not operating in the _ clear to me as it is not operating in the way— clear to me as it is not operating in the way to ensure that what really matters, which is consumers, are being _ really matters, which is consumers, are being protected at the end of this _ are being protected at the end of this. ~ ., ., are being protected at the end of this. a, ., ., , this. moving on to the independent, the shell chief _ this. moving on to the independent, the shell chief executive _ this. moving on to the independent, the shell chief executive saying - this. moving on to the independent, the shell chief executive saying it i the shell chief executive saying it would take a miracle for britain to lower energy bills. he also pointed out that the industry has under

invested by up to 1 trillion us —— $1 trillion us. the trajectory for energy companies, the transition to a carbon zero is very expensive for them. do we need to factor that into this debate, as well? we them. do we need to factor that into this debate, as well?— them. do we need to factor that into this debate, as well? we do, we need to acce -t this debate, as well? we do, we need to accept that — this debate, as well? we do, we need to accept that the _ this debate, as well? we do, we need to accept that the transition _ this debate, as well? we do, we need to accept that the transition to - this debate, as well? we do, we need to accept that the transition to a - to accept that the transition to a net zero, while is extremely important, will be expensive unless we continue to rely on fossil fuels at least in the short term. we cannot have a affordability security and net zero based on the current technologies. and the risk of hiking taxes further on energy companies, many of which let's not forget already pay some sort of supplementary charge on top of corporation tax, is that we are forcing them to operate in an unstable tax regime that could prevent new entities from coming to market which will affect

competition, all of which will ultimately dis— incentivise investment, which will limit supply further in the future. while demand is only continuing to increase. therefore we will see higher prices, so the government must be very careful about the way it taxes these companies and the sorts of unintended consequences that can bring about. just quickly on the energy price cap, the whole notion of a price cap is an illusion. it sounds like it means lower energy bills for consumers, but actually in reality, higher costs will turn up somewhere, whether that's on bills or future somewhere, whether that's on bills orfuture bills, or the taxes required to pay for increased borrowing. again, we would have a lack of competition down to the cap, which means higher costs are staying. we can look at these ways to protect consumers which are appealing, such as taxing companies that are seeing record profits, or

let's impose price caps to try and force down the cost of energy — but there's lots more to it than meets the i. ,, ., , the i. staying with the independent and on this energy _ the i. staying with the independent and on this energy story, it's - the i. staying with the independent and on this energy story, it's often | and on this energy story, it's often the poorest in society who are on these pay—as—you—go metres, isn't it? if they physically cannot pay, what happens then? are there more protective infrastructure in place to stop people getting cut off now? there's very little protection and that's— there's very little protection and that's part — there's very little protection and that's part of the problem. so if you are — that's part of the problem. so if you are on _ that's part of the problem. so if you are on pay—as—you—go, then people _ you are on pay—as—you—go, then people eitherjust chewing to essentially cut themselves off because they can't afford to top up their metre, or they will be cut off. their metre, or they will be cut off the — their metre, or they will be cut off. the really important thing to remember is the kind of price rises that we _ remember is the kind of price rises that we are — remember is the kind of price rises that we are seeing for the poorest households, but actually for most households, but actually for most households on modest incomes are not the sort _

households on modest incomes are not the sort of— households on modest incomes are not the sort of prices they'll absorb. there _ the sort of prices they'll absorb. there are — the sort of prices they'll absorb. there are two things that will happen _ there are two things that will happen. a lot of people just not be able to— happen. a lot of people just not be able to pay, and a lot of people are about to _ able to pay, and a lot of people are about to accumulate a huge amount of debt _ about to accumulate a huge amount of debt both— about to accumulate a huge amount of debt. both of which is unsustainable for the _ debt. both of which is unsustainable for the market that annabelle is talking — for the market that annabelle is talking about. so what we will see is huge _ talking about. so what we will see is huge disruption in the market anyway, — is huge disruption in the market anyway, lots of retail providers flushed — anyway, lots of retail providers flushed out, we've already seen that, _ flushed out, we've already seen that, and — flushed out, we've already seen that, and we've already seen market concentration in the hands of big companies that are essentially a monopoly. that never works for consumers _ monopoly. that never works for consumers. this is not a market that's— consumers. this is not a market that's ever— consumers. this is not a market that's ever been competitive and it certainly won't about to be competitive. which is why you have to regulate — competitive. which is why you have to regulate it properly to protect people. — to regulate it properly to protect people, and that's the thing that 0tgen— people, and that's the thing that 0fgen has failed to do. sol people, and that's the thing that 0fgen has failed to do. so i think this does— 0fgen has failed to do. so i think this does call for a bigger form of the energy market and one of the things— the energy market and one of the things l'd — the energy market and one of the things i'd like to see is, as customers are falling off providers that are _ customers are falling off providers that are going bust, why are we not creating _ that are going bust, why are we not creating a _ that are going bust, why are we not creating a company i can take on these _ creating a company i can take on these companies customers and put hu-e these companies customers and put

huge investment in renewables which are now— huge investment in renewables which are now cheaper than fossil fuels in order— are now cheaper than fossil fuels in order to _ are now cheaper than fossil fuels in order to fund the market? do that alongside — order to fund the market? do that alongside energy efficiency and you'll— alongside energy efficiency and you'll have a long—term plan? in the short— you'll have a long—term plan? in the short term _ you'll have a long—term plan? in the short term you have to protect consumers, you have to put money in people's— consumers, you have to put money in people's pockets. consumers, you have to put money in people's pockets— people's pockets. turning to a different story, _ people's pockets. turning to a different story, the _ people's pockets. turning to a different story, the i. .. - people's pockets. turning to a different story, the i... a - people's pockets. turning to a | different story, the i. .. a toxic different story, the i... a toxic fallout, the first hustings of 12 in leeds, that came to an end an hour ago. just talk us through what the i is saying about the leaks and fears that ministers are expressing at the moment? 50 that ministers are expressing at the moment? , , ., ., moment? so ministers are worried ultimately that _ moment? so ministers are worried ultimately that because _ moment? so ministers are worried ultimately that because of - moment? so ministers are worried ultimately that because of the - moment? so ministers are worriedl ultimately that because of the leaks that are coming out, there are no longer able to have frank discussions about policy with each other or with officials in case those discussions are weaponize and what has become an increasingly bitter battle to replace boris johnson as leader of the

conservative party and prime minister. i must say, reading this over the course of the leadership contest thus far, i do wonder who is running the country at the moment, and how can government possibly be running effectively when we have these leaks coming out, when we have many of our senior ministers distracted by this bitter leadership contest? what will the ultimate outcome be for the conservative party. i think that the resignation of borisjohnson provided an opportunity for the conservatives to reignite enthusiasm for their party and notjust among members, but the wider public. it was a new start, turning over a new leaf, and a real opportunity for the tories, and they are at risk of squandering it. this will simply compound it. find are at risk of squandering it. this will simply compound it.- are at risk of squandering it. this will simply compound it. and my 'ust bein: will simply compound it. and my 'ust being old-fashioned? i will simply compound it. and my 'ust being old-fashioned? it i will simply compound it. and my 'ust being old-fashioned? it seems h will simply compound it. and myjust being old-fashioned? it seems like l being old—fashioned? it seems like every political party now is

leaking, it doesn't seem as if anything is actually kept secret, whichever party you are a member of? look, there's a lot of leaking going on and _ look, there's a lot of leaking going on and i_ look, there's a lot of leaking going on and i think it's a massive problem _ on and i think it's a massive problem. it's a particular problem when _ problem. it's a particular problem when you — problem. it's a particular problem when you are running the country because — when you are running the country because it — when you are running the country because it means that from a national security to economic policy, — national security to economic policy, there are things where officials — policy, there are things where officials either won't feel confident or you can't have frank discussion— confident or you can't have frank discussion decision making. so it's usually— discussion decision making. so it's usually problematic. i agree with annabelle, it feels like our government has been missing in action— government has been missing in action for— government has been missing in action for some time, the leadership contest _ action for some time, the leadership contest means it is missing in action, — contest means it is missing in action, and _ contest means it is missing in action, and under any circumstances that would _ action, and under any circumstances that would be a disaster, but we are facing _ that would be a disaster, but we are facing multiple crises, the top of which is — facing multiple crises, the top of which is the top of the vink crisis. and it _ which is the top of the vink crisis. and it terrifies me that we don't have a _ and it terrifies me that we don't have a government that's functioning to solve _ have a government that's functioning to solve one of the biggest shocks that we've — to solve one of the biggest shocks that we've faced in generations. to the that we've faced in generations. trr the hustings, this is exclusive to the hustings, this is exclusive to the express, so i'm not sure if

rishi sunak mentioned it in that grilling by party members today, but he's now saying he'll kick 5600 foreign criminals out of britain. it's fair to say he's not the front runner in terms of torque at grassroots supporters and he's got a lot of ground to make up. do think we will see increasingly red meat issues like this from both candidates in the next 11 hustings to go? i candidates in the next 11 hustings to to? ~ . . , to go? i think we will certainly see a lot of that _ to go? i think we will certainly see a lot of that from _ to go? i think we will certainly see a lot of that from rishi _ to go? i think we will certainly see a lot of that from rishi sunak - . a lot of that from rishi sunak — let's not forget that if the polls are to be believed, this is truss to lose, and she certainly didn't appear to lose any ground during the hustings this evening. she put on a very strong performance, i heard one commentator say, the hour, cometh the woman. that will have rishi sunak�*s team rattled, which could lead to them

throwing some more of these red meat policies towards tory members in the hope of securing their votes. looking at the policy as far as we can, it certainly seems to be lacking in detail. i wonder how rishi sunak is planning to do this, is he really planning to do this —— planning to be any more successful than theresa may and other conservative pms were with the net migration target? how do you prevent these individuals are coming back again? does he have a clear right on the view to a family life? you need a very tough law to avoid these claims, if such a thing is even desirable. so like a lot of the pledges that have been made over the course of the leadership contest so far, it's quite vague and lacking in detail, and you have to wonder how easy it would be to enforce. d0 detail, and you have to wonder how easy it would be to enforce.- easy it would be to enforce. do you have a few — easy it would be to enforce. do you have a few on _ easy it would be to enforce. do you have a few on that, _ easy it would be to enforce. do you have a few on that, or do _ easy it would be to enforce. do you have a few on that, or do you - have a few on that, or do you want to move on? ==