this is bbc news i'm martine croxall. the headlines at 5. a double warning from the bank of england. it says a recesion is coming and inflation could peak at 13% percent by december. gdp growth in the uk has slowed and the economy is now forecasted to enter recession later this year. meanwhile, interest rates rise by half a point to 1.75% the biggest for nearly 30 years. some firms say the bank's decision is concerning. it's crippling, interest rate rises are something that could really stop small businesses like us. the bbc has announced an independent review into the allegations surrounding tim westwood and his conduct when he worked for the company. a high court hearing is set to begin in the next hour to determine whether archie battersbee can be

moved to a hospice. china launches several ballistic missile tests into waters around taiwan following a senior us leader's divisive visit to the island. and how disposable facemasks are blighting birdlife in 23 countries around the world. good afternoon, welcome to the bbc news channel. good afternoon, welcome to the bbc news channel. the bank of england has predicted that the uk is set to enter a recession this autumn lasting more than a year. the bank says inflation is likely to peak at 13% by december and

today it has announced the largest rise in interest rates for 27 years. the 0.5% hike means that interest rates now stand at 1.75%. the move is part of attempts to curb spiralling inflation, by making borrowing more expensive and discouraging spending. but it means mortgages and loans will be more expensive for millions of people as andy verity reports. rarely has the bank of england given out an economic warning this unsettling. it's not only forecasting the worst inflation in a0 years, hitting 13% in the next few months, but a full—blown recession starting this autumn. that means it expects buying and selling activity to start shrinking and carry on for the whole of next year. the risks around the mpc�*s forecasts are exceptionally large at present. the source of these risks and the driver of most of the revisions to our forecasts since the may report is overwhelmingly energy prices and the consequences of the actions of russia. this rise in energy prices has exacerbated the fall in real incomes and so led to another significant deterioration in the outlook

for activity in the uk, and in the rest of europe. gdp growth in the uk has slowed and the economy is now forecast to enter recession later this year. these were what prices looked like the last time the official interest rate rose by as much half a percentage point, 28 years ago. back then they were rising much more slowly than now — barely a third as quickly. the official interest rate is now higher than it has been for 13 years, but only because rates have been so low for so long. if you look back further to the last time the rates went up by 0.5% in 1995, the rates were three times what they are now. i recognise the significant impact this will have and how difficult the cost of living challenge will continue to be for many people in the uk. inflation hits the least well off hardest. but if we do not act to prevent inflation becoming persistent, the consequences later will be worse. and that will require larger

increases in interest rates. the bank of england's hope is raising interest rates and making it more expensive to borrow will discourage firms and households from borrowing to buy and invest, dampening down demand for goods and cooling an overheating economy. but small businesses like this manufacture of specialised bubble toys in bangor, north wales, say ongoing hikes in interest rates could slow down business, hitting growing businesses like this, making any recession worse. it is crippling, interest rate rises are something that could really stop a small business like us, who are ambitious, timely, and doing our absolute best, and they could stop this growth or stymie it, or curtail it, at a time when we need to be making changes. only about 1.9 million households, less than a tenth, have mortgages with variable rates. if they have a typical mortgage of £200,000, they will pay £59 more a month.

but a further 1.3 million mortgage borrowers will move off fixed rate deals this year, and they are also likely to pay more. if raising interest rates is aimed to curb household spending to help tame inflation, energy bills are already doing that leading on a much greater scale, leading to a rare and nasty combination of soaring inflation and impending recession. the chancellor of the exchequer has issued a statement saying, along with many countries the uk is facing global economic global with many countries the uk is facing global economic challenges.

will go to west minister and hear about the will go to west minister and hear about the political will go to west minister and hear about the political reaction will go to west minister and hear about the political reaction to theirs. this is absolutely going to be the preoccupation for the incoming conservative leader and prime minister. what are they going to do about it?— to do about it? yes, it's definitely auoin to to do about it? yes, it's definitely going to be _ to do about it? yes, it's definitely going to be the — to do about it? yes, it's definitely going to be the biggest _ to do about it? yes, it's definitely going to be the biggest thing - to do about it? yes, it's definitely going to be the biggest thing out| to do about it? yes, it's definitely i going to be the biggest thing out of a number of things that will be in when they get to thatjob. there's a couple of weeks yet to go for the conservative leadership race before we find out who wins contest. it is of course between rishi sunak, a form like chancellor and liz truss the current foreign secretary. both of them have slightly different plans about what to do around issue. liz truss thinks... she's promised an emergency budget if she wins and comes into office, that's what she will do. she's also talked about cutting taxes and doing things to help people immediately to help with the cost of living crisis in a kind

of swipe at her opponent she said that we can't tax our way out of this and out of growth. that's because rishi sunak plan around the economy involve almost if you like about a continuation of its plans while he was gentle. he says he wouldn't put up taxes immediately, while that would be a future ambition, his big motivation would be to get inflation under control. that would be as big priority. then to grow the economy and then in the future to cut taxes. and in a swipe at liz truss he has talked about tax cuts, immediately potentially making that problem worse. those are the two different visions they are laid out. what's interesting, you write out. what's interesting, you write out the current exchequer is a statement there but we are not interested because of the conservative election. because we are likely to have a new chancellor and a new vision for what help is needed for this current

cost—of—living crisis that looks set to get worse by the bank of england predictions for this current cost—of—living crisis that looks set to get worse by the bank of england predictions. the to get worse by the bank of england redictions. ., ., ., predictions. the international monetary fund _ predictions. the international monetary fund pours - predictions. the international monetary fund pours cold - predictions. the international. monetary fund pours cold water predictions. the international- monetary fund pours cold water on the government supposed to be the g7 last year looking ahead to 2023 when we are likely to be bottom of the list. what really can a government do when what happens to interest rates is the decision of the bank of england? rates is the decision of the bank of encland? , , , england? this is the problem that the next prime _ england? this is the problem that the next prime minister _ england? this is the problem that the next prime minister and - england? this is the problem that the next prime minister and the l england? this is the problem that. the next prime minister and the next government will face. there are no easy answers. as we heard in the chancellor is statement there, there are factors the us two uk are facing. there is not the only the uk problem because of the war in ukraine, the pandemic, there are multiple factors causing all these issues of course the government todayis issues of course the government today is been speaking about the help that it has already put in place. a lot of that is coming in a phased way of the next couple of months for instance, the help with energy bills, that will kick in in

october. that will mean that people 0ctober. that will mean that people would get roughly £60 off their bills for the next six months starting from october going forward. a lot of the help the government is putting in place they would say will make a difference in the later winter months. 0n the flip side of that you will get opposition parties saying it won't be enough given what we are seeing with the way energy bills are likely to rise and other bills are likely to rise and other bills like food bills, shopping, all of those things taken together. and his warning from the bank of england that it will be enough was up there will be a lot of pressure on whoever is the next prime minister to come up is the next prime minister to come up with solutions to go further, go faster. so far in the contest we have heard more from liz truss and what she would do immediately then we have from rishi sunak. he has talked about getting inflation under control while she has talked about tax cuts and emergency budgets to help people. tax cuts and emergency budgets to help people-— tax cuts and emergency budgets to help people.

tax cuts and emergency budgets to hel --eole. ., ~ , . . help people. thank you very much. we are “oined help people. thank you very much. we are joined now — help people. thank you very much. we are joined now by _ help people. thank you very much. we are joined now by a _ help people. thank you very much. we are joined now by a former— help people. thank you very much. we are joined now by a former member i help people. thank you very much. we are joined now by a former member of| are joined now by a former member of the bank of england's monetary policy committee which advises and decides on the setting of the interest rate level. also the author of rediscovering growth after the crisis. thank you very much for joining us here on the bbc news channel this afternoon. to what extent do you agree with the approach the bank of england has taken today? i approach the bank of england has taken today?— taken today? i think they've done what they could _ taken today? i think they've done what they could in _ taken today? i think they've done what they could in these - what they could in these circumstances. but they started too late in terms of raising interest rates. and they've been too slow for that and i know it might feel harsh for people who have mortgages but interest rates are in an important regulator of inflation. and we should have started raising them in the middle of last year and they should have been much higher by now. so the bank are playing catch—up in terms of what they are doing

inflation and on the interest rates. you say it's hard on those people with mortgages. it's also hard and a lot of businesses who are saying to us they are really going to struggle. how high do you think interest rates are going to have to go? i interest rates are going to have to no? ~ , interest rates are going to have to io? ~' , ., ., ., go? i think they are going to have to no go? i think they are going to have to go much _ go? i think they are going to have to go much higher— go? i think they are going to have to go much higher then _ go? i think they are going to have to go much higher then they - go? i think they are going to have to go much higher then they have| to go much higher then they have been for the last decade or so. we've been living in a sort of unreal situation where interest rates have been kept at artificially low levels. for a decade or so since the globalfinancial low levels. for a decade or so since the global financial crisis. i think it would have been better if the bank of england had actually started raising interest rates when economic conditions were quite good before the pandemic. and they've actually been rather complacent, i think in terms of responding to good economic

conditions. and never having to respond to very difficult conditions. now there having to respond. it's not easy but that is what they are having to do now. you sat on the military policy committee in a different era and a time of growth. what we've got now is stagflation which we didn't have them. how can you be sure that you would have done something different from what the bank of england is coping with today, given the very different and unusual set of circumstances goes back actually, i was on the mpc when things are very difficult in the global sought financial crisis.— difficult in the global sought financial crisis. and then we cut interest rates _ financial crisis. and then we cut interest rates and _ financial crisis. and then we cut interest rates and that - financial crisis. and then we cut interest rates and that was - financial crisis. and then we cut interest rates and that was the | interest rates and that was the right thing to do. but when the globalfinancial right thing to do. but when the global financial crisis was easing i was arguing quite strongly that we should have started to raise interest rates then. i think it's the failure to do that and really to adjust interest rates so the changing state of the economy that has led us into the problems we are

in now, it's not an easy decision when you're on the monetary policy committee. it's a two not a one—way bet. you can'tjust cut interest rates when things are difficult. i’m rates when things are difficult. i'm ioini rates when things are difficult. i'm ioiin to rates when things are difficult. i'm going to try one more question with you, just in case the picture on freezes. maybe you can hear me. who's got the right idea if were trying to bring about better recovery and growth, sunak who says don't cut taxes yet error trusses is cut them straightaway? can you hear us? i cut them straightaway? can you hear us? ~ , ., cut them straightaway? can you hear us? ~' , ., , cut them straightaway? can you hear us? ~ , ., , , ., ., us? i think the signal is breaking. who's iot us? i think the signal is breaking. who's got the _ us? i think the signal is breaking. who's got the right _ us? i think the signal is breaking. who's got the right idea - us? i think the signal is breaking. who's got the right idea to - who's got the right idea to bring about growth, rishi sunak who says don't cut taxes yet and liz truss who says cut them straightaway? no.

we are not succeeding. 0h who says cut them straightaway? no. we are not succeeding. oh well, i'm so sorry about that. i was really hoping we could answer that last question. former member of the bank of england's monetary policy committee. the bbc has confirmed it had a number of historical complaints regarding the conduct of the former bbc radio 1 dj tim westwood. it follows an internal review after investigations by bbc news and the guardian reported allegations of unexpected and unwanted sexual touching and sexual misconduct made by a number of women against the presenter. the corporation has asked for an external investigation to be conducted to further explore what it knew. 0ur correspondent chi chi izundu told me the details david's letter was with us now. tell us about this report that came out today. us about this report that came out toda . �* , ., us about this report that came out toda. �*, . ., us about this report that came out toda. ., today. it's all based on the report that came out _ today. it's all based on the report that came out in _ today. it's all based on the report that came out in april— today. it's all based on the report that came out in april of- today. it's all based on the report that came out in april of last - today. it's all based on the report| that came out in april of last year. the bbc news in the guardian, a

number of women have come forward making allegations against former radio one dj tim westwood about sexual misconduct and bullying. the big question was, what did the bbc know when tim was what was actually employed by them? at the time the director general tim davies said he had not been shown any evidence to been complaints against him westwood but wanted to know more. that we received today, an interim report and it does reveal yes, the bbc did receive some compliance. to about sexual misconduct, to about inappropriate behaviour while it was employed by the bbc. there have been since that investigation by the guardian a number of allegations that have come forward. it reveals a picture about what the bbc did know but didn't immediately able to lay their hands out at the time. what happens next? several things without one of courses questions being raised in this report about bbc record—keeping. the bbc�*s also

contacted metropolitan police but probably the bigger issue for bbc is they are having to have an independent inquiry into this, they have appointed a qc and they are asking people to come forward if they know of anything and also at other employers of tim westwood. they say they are willing to work with them to find out as much as possible about what was known. david. thank you very much. you are watching bbc news was up at 60 minutes past five. 0ur headlines. the double warning from the bank of england says a recession is coming. it inflation could peak by 13% by december. meanwhile, interest rates rise by half a point to 1.75 percent —— the biggest for nearly 30 years. the baby say says it setting up allegations to investigate bullying and sexual allegations by dj tim westwood. a high court hearing is underway to determine

whether archie battersbee can be moved to a hospice. doctors have warned he's too ill to be transferred —— but his family have said they will "fight to the end" to allow him to die with dignity. helena wilkinson reports. (vt next) for nearly four months the family acknowledges come to an end. they have won final which for argie to be moved from the hospital to a hospice where they can say goodbye privately. where they can say goodbye privately-— where they can say goodbye irivatel . , , ., ., privately. every single day of archie's life _ privately. every single day of archie's life i _ privately. every single day of archie's life i told _ privately. every single day of archie's life i told him - privately. every single day of archie's life i told him i- privately. every single day of archie's life i told him i love| privately. every single day of- archie's life i told him i love him. i've got no regrets with argie whatsoever.— i've got no regrets with argie whatsoever. , , ._ whatsoever. every single day i tell them i whatsoever. every single day i tell them i love _ whatsoever. every single day i tell them i love them. _ whatsoever. every single day i tell them i love them. for— whatsoever. every single day i tell them i love them. for that - whatsoever. every single day i tell them i love them. for that to - whatsoever. every single day i tell i them i love them. for that to happen they need the courts permission. earlier archie's family filed an application to the high court. but lawyers for nhs trust that runs his hospital where argie is being treated say any application to

transfer the 12—year—old would be opposed. the trust believes that archie's condition is unstable and moving him even a short distance would create significant risk. argie has been in aa, sensi was found unconscious at his home in april. doctors say it is highly likely that archie's brain stem dead and there is no hope of recovering. the hospital says it has archie's best interest at the forefront of its care. �* . ., interest at the forefront of its care. ~ . ., ., care. after careful thought we refuse permission... - care. after careful thought we refuse permission... in - care. after careful thought we refuse permission... in a - care. after careful thought we i refuse permission... in a series care. after careful thought we - refuse permission... in a series of court rulings _ refuse permission... in a series of court rulings ten _ refuse permission... in a series of court rulings ten judges _ refuse permission... in a series of court rulings ten judges agreed i refuse permission... in a series of i court rulings ten judges agreed that his treatment should be withdrawn. yesterday the european court of human rights refused to intervene in the case after in application by archie's parents. this isn't the first high profile case where doctors and families have disagreed. 0ne doctors and families have disagreed. one would understand argie in the minds of the family is still alive and they don't want to lose the boy. so i think sadly, that happens,

however those kind of disconnects or disputes are rare.— disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another _ disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another way _ disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another way to _ disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another way to find - disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another way to find out i disputes are rare. archie's parents now face another way to find out if they will be able to move their son to a hospice where they can say goodbye. we can speak to the professor of paediatrics at london university. thank you forjoining us. immensely upsetting set of circumstances for any family. what are the guidelines that help you as clinicians know what to do? there is end-of-life — clinicians know what to do? there is end-of-life care _ clinicians know what to do? there is end-of-life care guidelines. - clinicians know what to do? there is end-of-life care guidelines. most i end—of—life care guidelines. most critically we have palliative care teams who specialise in exactly the sort of situation. what we would do is involve them so we follow everything and do things by the

book. my understanding is that archie's condition is so fragile that any attempt to move him may be defining to death. it's awful to see this family suffering in the sense that everything they've tried to get reviewed was refused. but that is also a brutal reality situation which they find themselves in, which nobody can prepare them for. it's really very sad for all concerned. you could understand why a parent wants to advocate so fiercely for their child even when hope is slipping away each day. what role can parent's or should parents have in determining what happens? thea;r in determining what happens? they can iut in determining what happens? they can put forward _ in determining what happens? he can put forward their in determining what happens? tie can put forward their perspective and here to there has been some disconnect in the two sides, unfortunate for all concerned. but

ultimately, although all the time in our careers as paediatricians and paediatric teams, we care for families where there is a parent expert, somebody who knows a lot and to lee about that individual child and we sure that's correct so that they don't have any perspective or any professional training. there has to be that interface between their considerations and those of the broader professional knowledge and predictability based on that. nobody knows absolutely was going to happen. but the general feeling knows absolutely was going to happen. but the generalfeeling of not only team concern but also external reviews providing with all relevant information that have access to have come up with the same opinion. in this opinion has percolated up through the court system, which i have a lot of respect for. and nothing has changed or been reversed. so i think there's been satisfaction from the families that a series of opinions have been

sought and each one has been consistent for them even if each time they hope that something might change. time they hope that something might chanie. ., ., i. time they hope that something might chanie, ., ., ., time they hope that something might chanie. ., ., i. ., ., , change. how then do you get a family to see what's — change. how then do you get a family to see what's probably _ change. how then do you get a family to see what's probably inevitable - to see what's probably inevitable and do it in a way that helps them get to that point, not against their will but by recognising the wisdom and the compassion that is necessary to make this terrible decision? every case is nuanced but there is a general strategy so once a team realise a child's life is limited then there will be some initial discussions between family members and the caring team who know that the child well, that might be the nursing home, the consulting paediatrician. initially we just start with what you might call

seating ideas. asking questions like, how do you think the future is going to look and so on and so forth. that's a general process, it occurs over a period of weeks and months. what's been difficult for archie's family is he was absolutely well prior to this tragic accident. so he's gone from a very well looking, fine boy as far as i can see in the pictures to somebody whose life threatening lee ill very quickly. that's something they've not been prepared for. i don't know and ultimately you can't make that happen for everybody. the old adage about taking a horse to water. i have come across these circumstances rarely from time to time. generally speaking, this kind of situation and does not get into the public eye, does not get into the public eye, does marketed to courts and some point there must�*ve been something where once i didn't understand the

other, so to speak. therefore, this has been aired in the public forum, which you and i are discussing. thank you very much for your time. an inquest into the death of a nine—year—old lincolnshire girl has opened and been adjourned today. lilia valutyte was killed while playing in boston town centre last week. 22—year—old deividas skeba has been charged with her murder. a crowdfunding page to help pay for lilia's funeral has already raised more than six thousand pounds. nine—year—old lilia valutyte died while stabbed outside a burglary shop in lincolnshire last thursday, around six 20 in the early evening. we understand she was playing outside that shot, playing hoop with her two—year—old sister. two days later a 22—year—old was located by

police in a park in boston. he was arrested, taken into custody and then a day later charged with murder —— skebas. he's already appeared in court and has been remanded into custody. he will next appear in court for a plea hearing on september the 19th. afternoon here in lincoln, ligatures acting senior coroner paul smith opened in adjourned a inquest into lilia valutyte's death. it was a short hearing only nine minutes long and the court heard the provisional result of a forensic postmortem into lilia valutyte his death was a stab wound to the chest. the coroner then adjourned the inquest until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings as he is required to do so by law. taiwan has scrambled jets to warn

away 22 chinese aircraft in its air defence zone — the taiwanese defence ministry has announced. taiwan also says china has fired several ballistic missiles in the waters around the island, as part of beijing's biggest ever military exercises in the area. china announced the drills in response to a visit to taiwan by the american democrat politician, nancy pelosi. the exercises stop ships and planes from using maritime and air space. taiwan says they amount to a blockade. 0ur china correspondent stephen mcdonell has more from beijing. volley after volley missiles with in taiwan. according to the people's liberation army it's their targets. attack helicopters view by the island, one of china's closest point to taiwan. after assembling for days china's military has stage massive live fire exercises in a dramatic escalation of pressure on the place

it considers a rogue province. these are normally busy shipping lanes but in six huge areas surrounding the island commercial vessels and aircraft warned not to approach what looks like a dress rehearsal for a blockade of taiwan. some have asked whether the nancy pelosi visit was worth it given that they taiwan security appears to have deteriorated as a result. many taiwanese say they are used to such tensions. �* ,, �* taiwanese say they are used to such tensions. ~ ,, ~ , , tensions. translation: basically, i'm not tensions. translation: basically, i'm not afraid _ tensions. translation: basically, i'm not afraid of _ tensions. translation: basically, i'm not afraid of the _ tensions. translation: basically, i'm not afraid of the threats - tensions. translation: basically, i'm not afraid of the threats from i i'm not afraid of the threats from china. at least now when china says it wants to annex by force they've actually said that for quite a while. �* ,, �* ~' �* while. translation: i think i'm already used _ while. translation: i think i'm already used to _ while. translation: i think i'm already used to the _ while. translation: i think i'm already used to the threat - while. translation: i think i'm already used to the threat from | already used to the threat from china _ already used to the threat from china and — already used to the threat from china and i've accepted it. actually, _ china and i've accepted it. actually, taiwan cares more about the economy. the actually, taiwan cares more about the economy-— actually, taiwan cares more about the econom . , ., the economy. the chinese government has been encouraged _ the economy. the chinese government has been encouraged to _ the economy. the chinese government has been encouraged to condemnation | has been encouraged to condemnation of nancy pelosi and taiwan. this

could though lead to calls for more extreme military options, more extreme military options, more extreme than it's prepared to consider. and that could bring its own political pressure on beijing. translation: i think this pelosi visit is a good thing. it gives us an opportunity to surround taiwan then use this opportunity to take taiwan by force. earlier than expected. i think we should thank comrade pelosi.— comrade pelosi. translation: emotions running _ comrade pelosi. translation: emotions running high - comrade pelosi. translation: emotions running high for - comrade pelosi. translation: | emotions running high for chinese people _ emotions running high for chinese people when she came. but when we come _ people when she came. but when we come down _ people when she came. but when we come down and think about it we must have faith _ come down and think about it we must have faith in _ come down and think about it we must have faith in our mother laying in that they— have faith in our mother laying in that they the government have already— that they the government have already figured out a solution. hard—liners in china's communist party the visitors provided the perfect excuse to ramp up military activity around taiwan. now that exercises have been carried out so close to the island, could this become a regular event? that would mean even more regional instability in the coming years.

a russian court his sentence the us basketball star britney on nine years on drug charges after finding her guilty of drug smuggling. an olympic gold minute or had admitted vape cartridges in her possession when she was detained in february. she said she hadn't intended to break the law. our correspondent barbara platt usher is following the story from washington. this was almost the toughest sentence that she could of god, the charge of drug smuggling was one that has a sentence of two ten years and she got nine. we knew she would be convicted because she pled guilty. she said that she had brought those vape cartridges in but hadn't meant to do so. it was a mistake. she hadn't meant to break the law but the court found she had deliberately done so and said she was guilty of drug smuggling. the reason she pled guilty was she was hoping for a more lenient sentence,

that obviously hasn't happened. you can see how serious the expression was on her face as the judge spoke and she was listening to her interpreter, following every word, finally finding out what her fate would be. now it may not be that she will serve all of that time or even most of it because the united states is put forward a proposal to the russians to bring her back, presumably a prisoner swapped although that hasn't been confirmed. we did get a statement from president biden. he again repeated she was locked wrongfully detained. he said the sentence was unacceptable, he said russia shall release her immediately and his administration would continue to work as hard as it could to bring her and another american detained in roger home as soon as they could. the state department took the almost unprecedented set up a couple of weeks ago of announcing publicly that it had made a substantial offer to the russians and was waiting to hear back. and we know that the russians are interested in

negotiation, according to russian media they are interested in bringing back for example a russian arms dealer who is imprisoned in the united states. but we don't have any indication from the russians about how quickly they might move on bad foot or whether they're going to wait for a while and see whether they can get more out of it. mr blinken, the secretary of state made very clear these talks are based entirely on a deal to bring her home, they had nothing to do with the were in ukraine and so we will see if the russians want to see whether they want to get more out of it, it may beget sanctions listed, may be trying to get more prisoners released. it is not clear if that is indeed their objective but we are waiting now to see, now that the sentence has been given and the court has made its ruling whether things will move quickly or whether the russians will continue to wait.

a quick bit of breaking news. a statement from the us secretary of state blinken that we have seen in the last few minutes about today's conviction and sentencing for britney compounds the injustice of a wrongful detention. this puts a spotlight on the significant concerns over russia's legal systems and wrongful detentions to mask its own agenda using individuals as political ponds and goes on to say that we will continue to press for fair and transparent treatment of all us citizens were detained in russia. let's pause for a moment. enforce, further bands across parts of southeast england next week. and of course, it is down to the dry weather and if you look at england as a whole between january and july, we've only had two thirds of our normal rainfall by

beckin thirds of our normal rainfall by beck in 1976, it was even drier. in the next five days, again, we don't see any rainfall next week either. so, this extended period of dry weather is said to continue. we have plenty of sunshine across england and wales but for scotland and northern ireland, it's more of a mixture of sunny spells and a few passing showers and a majority of the showers will be to the northern islands in scotland as well. temperatures and the high teens and pressure feel in the sunshine across the east anglia in southeast england. more pleasant feel to the weather. overnight tonight, showers will continue and get into northwest england perhaps running into north wells for a time as well but for the south words, the drier the weather is, with no rain expected it would be a fun start to the day tomorrow and very similar day of whether it's

on the cards. so, for most of england and wales it destroyed for sunshine and for the northwest of england seen one or two passing showers and temperatures very similar as well on friday. taking a look at the weather for the commonwealth games, the athletics taking place and we are looking to find the temperature about 20 degrees imperfect conditions for the athletes here. for the weekend, there'll be something of a change for the far north of scotland and threatening figure cloud and south—westerly winds, a bit of clever northern ireland and parts of northern england but across the bulk of england and wales, it's a fine and sunny day with temperatures ranging between 2326 and 27 celsius. going to sending it next in this area of low pressure is going to be more expensive across the uk and weather becomes drier and a lot warmer as well. if not hot. temperatures going back into the low 30s across parts of southeast england and very warm for wells and

starting to spread towards north in scotland. hello, this is bbc news with martine croxall. the headlines. a double warning from the bank of england. it says a recesion is coming and inflation could peak at 13 percent by december it's not forecast into recession later this year. meanwhile, interest rates rise by half a point to 1.75 percent —— the biggest for nearly 30 years. the bbc says it's setting up an independent inquiry to examine allegations of sexual misconduct and bullying by the dj tim westwood. a high court hearing is underway to determine whether archie battersbee can be moved to a hospice. the 12—year—old has been in a coma since april. china launches several ballistic missile tests into waters around taiwan following a senior us leader's divisive visit to the island.

in response, taiwan scrambled jets to warn away aircraft. sport and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre, here's welcome to day seven of the commonwealth games here in birmingham where england have won their first gold of the day. and it's come from zoe newson in the para powerliftin she took first place in the women's lightweight competition. a successful lift of 101kg on her final attempt saw newson extend her lead at the top of the table. all the more impressive when you consider she thought about giving up the sport after the birth of her son. england's olivia broome took silver. next to drama in the men's road cycling time trial this afternoon where england won silver, thanks to fred wright. wales' geraint thomas took bronze, which was impressive when you see what happened.

when he turned the corner with too much speed and ended up colliding with the barrier. he nearly saved himself but not quite. and it wasn't much better for england's dan bigham who crashed into the barriers too. his handlebars got tangled up and in the end he got on another bike — which was his fiance's and ended up in 11th place. australia's former world champion rohan dennis had a trouble free ride though — that was good enough for gold. while thomas pushed all the way to the line but ended up in the bronze medal position, two seconds behind england's fred wright. it is what it is, you know. my fault. one of those things and just trying to refocus and just get stuck

into the ride and legs are pretty good, to be honest and probably a bit of adrenaline straight up to the crash and a bit too hard to start with but to come away with the metal is ok in the end, i guess. ealrier england's anna henderson won the first home nations medal of the day, taking silver in the women's cycling time trial. henderson impressed during the women's tour de france recently, and did the same this morning across the 28.8 km circuit at wolverhampton's west park. australia's grace brown took gold, winning in a fraction over forty minutes with henderson 33 seconds behind, while georgia williams of new zealand came third. england women have thrashed wales 5—0 to qualify for the knockouts of the hockey as group a winners. grace balsdon scored a hat—trick with hannah martin and giselle ansley also on target,

as england continued their unbeaten start in birmingham. they'll now play the defending champions new zealand in the semi finals. england's men are currently playing canada. these are live pictures. they're well into the last quarter. england would have to beat canada by 1a clear goals if they want to finish top of pool b and avoid holders australia in the semi—finals, it's currently 8—1 to england. with a score line from england! what a score line from england! earlier india's men beat wales 4—1 in theirfinal match of the group stages. it means india qualify for the semi—finals alongside england. it's the first day of diving at the sandwell aquatics centre, with the men's 1m springboard prelimnary rounds completed and the final starting

in under half an hour. the home favourite and defending championjack laugher wasn't perfect throughout the preliminary round — but he did enough to finish fourth overall and qualify for the finals. fellow english diverjordan houlden finished just ahead of laugher — while scotland's james heatley came second — behind australia's shixin li. staying with the diving, just to show you how tough it is to execute. sri lanka's dulan—ja fernando not getting it quite right on one of his attempts. belly flopping into the pool. one of the flattest landings you'll see. he's got it out of the way now — and hopefully doesn't repeat it later. now you know how hard it is. that is all the sport for now and back to

you. it says a recesion is coming and inflation could peak at 13% by december. back now to our top story — and the bank of england is warning that inflation could reach 13% this autumn — and that a recession is expected to begin within the next few months. the bank has also announced it's putting up interest rates by half a percent — the biggest increase in 27 years — to try to slow down the speed that prices are rising. joining me now is dr linda yueh, that prices are rising. author and economist at the university of oxford. how inevitable was it that we would have a bigger interest rate rise? it was pretty inevitable because the bank of _ was pretty inevitable because the bank of england has looked at the doubling — bank of england has looked at the doubling of wholesale and energy prices _ doubling of wholesale and energy prices since may and what they're praiecting — prices since may and what they're projecting is a big burst of passes through— projecting is a big burst of passes through that energy costs to households in october when the

energy— households in october when the energy changes can be high as £300. on that— energy changes can be high as £300. on that basis, with their forecasting is inflation could reach the peak— forecasting is inflation could reach the peak and half of that is because energy— the peak and half of that is because energy prices and the other half is actually— energy prices and the other half is actually because of press is already going _ actually because of press is already going up— actually because of press is already going up because the supply chain and of— going up because the supply chain and of course, having higher production costs and we see double—digit inflation because you know— double—digit inflation because you know the — double—digit inflation because you know the target and what they're doing _ know the target and what they're doing is— know the target and what they're doing is raising interest rates to try to _ doing is raising interest rates to try to dampen and try to take a little _ try to dampen and try to take a little bit — try to dampen and try to take a little bit of that inflation off because the governor has said, because — because the governor has said, because most of this is important, they're _ because most of this is important, they're not— because most of this is important, they're not expecting that increase is going _ they're not expecting that increase is going to — they're not expecting that increase is going to be able to do very much and inflation is expected to be elevated or through next year as a result _ elevated or through next year as a result. ., .., elevated or through next year as a result. ., . ., ., elevated or through next year as a result. ., _, ., , ., ., result. how confident are you that the interest _ result. how confident are you that the interest rates _ result. how confident are you that the interest rates are _ result. how confident are you that the interest rates are the - result. how confident are you that the interest rates are the answer. the interest rates are the answer given that some people cannot stop spending. they're not spending excessively, they're spending all that they have on the very basics of

life. ., ., , ., , life. one of the really worrying estimates _ life. one of the really worrying estimates that _ life. one of the really worrying estimates that they _ life. one of the really worrying estimates that they made - life. one of the really worrying estimates that they made is i life. one of the really worrying l estimates that they made is that life. one of the really worrying - estimates that they made is that so, household _ estimates that they made is that so, household incomes, this is after you take off— household incomes, this is after you take off inflation, it's going to fall by— take off inflation, it's going to fall by 5% over the next year and that is— fall by 5% over the next year and that is the — fall by 5% over the next year and that is the worst cost of living it since _ that is the worst cost of living it since dated begin in the 19605. and 5ince dated begin in the 19605. and with the _ 5ince dated begin in the 19605. and with the bank of england explicitly try to _ with the bank of england explicitly try to do _ with the bank of england explicitly try to do is rai5e with the bank of england explicitly try to do is raise rates to a neutral— try to do is raise rates to a neutral level so that it is not stimulating the economy which generates inflation but, already the level that _ generates inflation but, already the level that interest rates are at isn't, — level that interest rates are at isn't, it— level that interest rates are at isn't, it is— level that interest rates are at isn't, it is a— level that interest rates are at isn't, it is a very fine balancing act that— isn't, it is a very fine balancing act that they are going for. but they're — act that they are going for. but they're forecasting that interest rates _ they're forecasting that interest rates are — they're forecasting that interest rates are probably going to go up to 3% that _ rates are probably going to go up to 3% that might be viewed as neutral level and _ 3% that might be viewed as neutral level and stimulating the economy but it's_ level and stimulating the economy but it's also not dampening demand by much _ but it's also not dampening demand

by much more but even on that assumption of 3%, people will find it difficult, — assumption of 3%, people will find it difficult, especially because the economy— it difficult, especially because the economy is already slowing because of the _ economy is already slowing because of the inflationary pressures and the cost — of the inflationary pressures and the cost of living in the forecast and the — the cost of living in the forecast and the recession as long as the we've _ and the recession as long as the we've had — and the recession as long as the we've had in 2009 after the banking crash _ we've had in 2009 after the banking crash and _ we've had in 2009 after the banking crash and 2.1% which is about the same _ crash and 2.1% which is about the same as— crash and 2.1% which is about the same as the _ crash and 2.1% which is about the same as the early 19905 recession stop fighting to be quite a lengthy one, what can the government do when so many— one, what can the government do when so many of— one, what can the government do when so many of these factors are external? _ so many of these factors are external? the policy that we've discussed, there are limits to what the banks— discussed, there are limits to what the banks can do it there's a limit to what— the banks can do it there's a limit to what the — the banks can do it there's a limit to what the governments can do by the policy— to what the governments can do by the policy would governments can do is target _ the policy would governments can do is target support to the worst i5 target support to the worst affected _ i5 target support to the worst affected by recessions and the cost of living _ affected by recessions and the cost of living crisis and of course, unemployment the

i5 is also going to go up to to the forecasted recession. but the fiscal policy— forecasted recession. but the fiscal policy to— forecasted recession. but the fiscal policy to try to get more income support— policy to try to get more income support and households are really struggling and yes, by supporting demand, — struggling and yes, by supporting demand, there's always a bit of inflation — demand, there's always a bit of inflation but if you targeted towards those who are the worst off in society, _ towards those who are the worst off in society, that's not targeting the entire. _ in society, that's not targeting the entire, that is not targeting everybody and supporting them and been inflationary, i think the other thing _ been inflationary, i think the other thing to— been inflationary, i think the other thing to think about is all of the estimates are usually uncertain and at the _ estimates are usually uncertain and at the moment, the independent forecasters whether it's the banks of the _ forecasters whether it's the banks of the independent economies are not forecasting _ of the independent economies are not forecasting recession present and deny— forecasting recession present and deny that— forecasting recession present and deny that there is an international monetary— deny that there is an international monetary fund however, these views can shift, _ monetary fund however, these views can shift, especially after the bank has come — can shift, especially after the bank has come out with such a worrying forecast _ has come out with such a worrying forecast that i would expect that

government needs to take a very hard look at _ government needs to take a very hard look at the _ government needs to take a very hard look at the art and to see people struggling. different parts of the economy will be affected differently to the largest rise in interest rates in more than 25 years. the increase of nought—point—five percent takes the base rate to its highest since december 2008, at 1—point—75 percent. how will this impact on the housing market, including mortgage rates? one person who might be able to help answer that is ray boulger, who's technical manager atjohn charcoal, the independent mortgage broker. he joins us live from sheffield. thank you very much. looking at the set of circumstances, you've been working in mortgages for a very long time. how difficult of a situation are we in?—

time. how difficult of a situation are we in? , ., ~ ., ., are we in? interesting to know from the back of — are we in? interesting to know from the back of the _ are we in? interesting to know from the back of the comment _ are we in? interesting to know from the back of the comment uncertain, i the back of the comment uncertain, uncertain they are. well surprised about was despite the announcement, although the bank rate rise as expected, peaking at 30%, we saw very little movement in guild yields and because it is a key draught of the cost of mortgage rates, although we have seen a bit of interest rates today, that does suggests that we are not going to see a big change in mortgage rates that some comfort. about 25% from people of colour variable mortgages and so on a fixed flight, the pain of increase is going to be coming through to those people and for the last few months, the majority of people who have been taking fixed rates have been for the

past five years and that is going to delay the pain and hopefully as people come off those rates will see them peaking come down again. iloathed them peaking come down again. what about those run _ them peaking come down again. what about those run a _ them peaking come down again. what about those run a standard variable rates are distant rates are tracker rates are distant rates are tracker rates which falls with the base rate, what advice you give to them? i think the key thing is why there on those rates and those who are at those rates choose to do so either because they have a good track record and so, people in that rate would be quite happy, especially if they have the flexibility of play when they want. the mortgage, whether that is quite slow, and anybody who's got a reasonable mortgage balance and must plan the pockets are sometimes really should switch to a fixed rate because it does look like rates of got further to go and i think the question is, not should you have a fixed rate but

how long a fix for. it's interesting if you see how rates of change. a year ago, if you see how rates of change. a yearago, if if you see how rates of change. a year ago, if you plenty of equity in your property or a big deposit, you get a five year fixed rate under 1%. now, whether you fix for two, five or ten years, the rates are all about the same starting at three and about the same starting at three and a quarter percent so, the question is, how long should you fix for? hagar is, how long should you fix for? how do ou is, how long should you fix for? how do you work— is, how long should you fix for? how do you work out _ is, how long should you fix for? how do you work out whether you should take the leap now because there could be a penalty to leaving the mortgage that you've got. yes. mortgage that you've got. yes, absolutely- — mortgage that you've got. yes, absolutely- i— mortgage that you've got. yes, absolutely. i think _ mortgage that you've got. yes, absolutely. i think those - mortgage that you've got. i'es absolutely. i think those were already in a fixed rate probably won't find it worthwhile paying the penalty and if they speak to that independent mortgage broker, during the calculations. claimant charges and in the last year —— payment charges, it might actually be worth taking the plunge. but with some deals, there is a flat rate of charge for the whole period in the neck is, you're probably going to

have to stay put. to neck is, you're probably going to have to stay put.— neck is, you're probably going to have to stay put. to what extent can a mortgage — have to stay put. to what extent can a mortgage adviser— have to stay put. to what extent can a mortgage adviser help _ have to stay put. to what extent can a mortgage adviser help you - have to stay put. to what extent can a mortgage adviser help you with . a mortgage adviser help you with those sorts of decisions because in the end, it's your money you have to make the final call.— make the final call. absolutely a ireat call make the final call. absolutely a great call of _ make the final call. absolutely a great call of where _ make the final call. absolutely a great call of where they - make the final call. absolutely a great call of where they can - make the final call. absolutely a i great call of where they can help you because they can do the calculations, see a much is going to cost you to redeem your existing mortgage early and how much you're going to save you take new mortgage. essentially, that is a matter of calculation but of course, you need to decide if you're going to change, how long are you going to fix for and also comes into the equation it would depend on how much you plan to stay on your property and other regions. it is not black and white, but it is a good mortgage they can certainly help you with that. much of europe is in the grip of another heatwave — and this time there are worries over a potential drought. france has seen record low rainfall — and parts of england are now

facing a hosepipe ban. the european commission has warned member states to re—use treated urban wastewater to irrigate farmland. the bbc�*s tim allman reports. in the city of toulouse, you can almost walk on water. the garonne is at such a low level now, fishermen are able to wade out, the river barely covering their ankles. weeks of hot weather, and crucially no rain, has had a dramatic impact. translation: we are seeing record levels of drought. - that is to say, we've never seen the ground as dry as it is at the moment. over the coming days, there's not a lot of rain expected, so there's no end in sight to this drought. so, how bad has it got? well, according to meteorologists, in the month ofjuly...

in this part of northern france, not far from dunkirk, water shortages aren't usually a problem. but even here, the yser river is below its usual level. the local authorities have placed the area under a drought crisis alert for the first time, pointing the finger of blame in one direction. translation: the effects of drought are a direct - consequence of global warming, which is only intensifying. we hear about it, we see the physical effects on the ground. it'5 undoubtedly one of the effects of global warming, which is accelerating and intensifying. lack of water has all sorts of consequences. this is denis bollengier, a local farmer whose potato crop is in serious danger.

translation: if it doesn't rain - between now and the 15th of august, meaning in 10—12 days, we can easily lose up l to 50% of our crop. it's notjust france facing a potential drought. this was the river ver in southern england, which has now run completely dry. water companies have already imposed hosepipe bans on customers in several counties and london could be next. unless rain arrives soon, the impact of the potential drought will only become more severe. tim allman, bbc news. australia is counting the cost of catastrophic floods this year — which may be the most expensive natural disaster in the country's history. the multi—billion—dollar rebuilding effort could take years. and for victims without property insurance — the future is uncertain. the insurance council of australia

has told the bbc that some flood—prone areas might have to be abandoned because the risks are too high. phil mercer reports from sydney. this whole back area and the bottom level was submerged in water. and basically everything that destroyed. murky brown floodwaters have invaded the property three three times this year. her heart is not insured because the premiums are too expensive and cover is hard to find. i do not have flood insurance no be very hard—pressed to find any company that will cover you in a flood zone, even in a one and 100 flood zone, even in a one and 100 flood zone, even in a one and 100 flood zone because you're a very high risk. it is very unsettling and it's hard to start over.— it's hard to start over. because isn't worth _ it's hard to start over. because isn't worth fixing, _ it's hard to start over. because isn't worth fixing, is _ it's hard to start over. because isn't worth fixing, is worth - isn't worth fixing, is worth replacing things. if i sell my house, can i summer house? is a lot of uncertainty. it’s house, can i summer house? is a lot of uncertainty-— of uncertainty. it's estimated that one in ten australian _ of uncertainty. it's estimated that one in ten australian homes - of uncertainty. it's estimated that one in ten australian homes are i of uncertainty. it's estimated that l one in ten australian homes are not vulnerable to flooding. some may

have to be abandoned.— vulnerable to flooding. some may have to be abandoned. there is the case of there _ have to be abandoned. there is the case of there are _ have to be abandoned. there is the case of there are areas _ have to be abandoned. there is the case of there are areas where - case of there are areas where insurance _ case of there are areas where insurance is simply unaffordable because — insurance is simply unaffordable because of the factor. and we take the more _ because of the factor. and we take the more extreme view that we have to draw— the more extreme view that we have to draw lines on places that are forever— to draw lines on places that are forever flood prone and there is no solution at — forever flood prone and there is no solution. at that point, step in and offer— solution. at that point, step in and offer them — solution. at that point, step in and offer them the opportunity to sell their homes back to government and moved _ their homes back to government and moved to— their homes back to government and moved to other areas.— moved to other areas. thousands of ieo i le will moved to other areas. thousands of people will be _ moved to other areas. thousands of people will be forced _ moved to other areas. thousands of people will be forced to _ moved to other areas. thousands of people will be forced to leave - moved to other areas. thousands of people will be forced to leave their. people will be forced to leave their homes record—breaking floods and a part of eastern australia and here in windsor, the bridge which is a main affair that is completely submerged, the waters have obviously receded but what they left behind his financial pain that many residents will be feeling for years. ian burns is working to revive his famous floating restaurant on the river near sydney.— famous floating restaurant on the river near sydney. financially, it's been an absolute _ river near sydney. financially, it's been an absolute disaster. - river near sydney. financially, it's been an absolute disaster. as - river near sydney. financially, it's been an absolute disaster. as it i been an absolute disaster. as it stands, —

been an absolute disaster. as it stands, i— been an absolute disaster. as it stands, i haven't— been an absolute disaster. as it stands, i haven't operated - been an absolute disaster. a5 it| stands, i haven't operated since february— stands, i haven't operated since february 2021~ _ stands, i haven't operated since february 2021. since _ stands, i haven't operated 5ince| february 2021. since valentine's day _ february 2021. since valentine's day 0ver— february 2021. since valentine's day. over million _ february 2021. since valentine's day. over million dollars - february 2021. since valentine's day. over million dollars have . february 2021. since valentine's i day. over million dollars have been lost. day. over million dollars have been lost three — day. over million dollars have been lost. three major— day. over million dollars have been lost. three major floods, _ day. over million dollars have been lost. three major floods, lots- day. over million dollars have been lost. three major floods, lots of. lost. three major floods, lots of places— lost. three major floods, lots of places have _ lost. three major floods, lots of places have been _ lost. three major floods, lots of places have been shut— lost. three major floods, lots of places have been shut down - lost. three major floods, lots ofi places have been shut down and have had very— places have been shut down and have had very little — places have been shut down and have had very little assistance _ places have been shut down and have had very little assistance at _ places have been shut down and have had very little assistance at all. - had very little assistance at all. well _ had very little assistance at all. well used — had very little assistance at all. well used and _ had very little assistance at all. well used and extremes, - had very little assistance at all. well used and extremes, but . had very little assistance at all. i well used and extremes, but for many, back to back disasters are testing their resilience never before. in iceland, a volcano has begun to erupt following a series of earthquakes in an uninhabited valley near the capital reykjavik. guy lambert reports. in the land of fire and ice, another powerful force of mother nature is on display, attracting tourists from all over the world. the volcano erupted on wednesday, aokm east of the capital of reykjavik, just eight months after its last eruption officially ended. the site is close to mount fagradalsfjall, a volcano that threw out magma for six months in 2021. no one lives in the valley,

but since the eruption began, more than 1500 curious onlookers have visited the site. we were trekking down here and i was, like, i have to stop, stop, let's sit down and i had a little cry because it's so beautiful and so emotional and this is, like, the raw power of our planet. but there is a danger to visiting sites such as this. when exposed, gases from a volcanic eruption, especially sulphur dioxide, may pose a danger to health, and officials have urged people to avoid the site until a danger assessment has been conducted. today, the icelandic government issued an alert advising that young children should not walk up to the eruption site. it is not known how long it will be until this latest eruption subsides. now it's time for a look at the weather with chris fawkes hello, there. hosepipe bans come into force across parts of hampshire, the isle of wight tomorrow, and further bans across parts of south east england next week. and of course, it's down

to the dry weather. if we take a look at england as a whole between january and july, we've only had two thirds of our normal rainfall. but back in 1976, it was even drier than that. mind you, there is no rain in the forecast. this for the next five days, bone dry across the majority of england again. and to be honest, i don't really see any rain falling next week either. so this extended period of dry weather is set to continue. now, today, we've got plenty of sunshine across england the cost scotland and northern ireland will continue to spread across parts of england in north wales as well. i'll be a little bit of rain at times their intentions into 1a, so comfortable, tomorrow the weather is identical to today's weather and obese insurance across scotland and northern ireland and most of england and wales will stay dry in the temperatures are not going to change much either. that is the latest.

today at six: a bleak warning from the bank of england which predicts a uk economic recession at the end of this year — which will last all the way through 2023. soaring domestic energy prices have triggered another warning from the bank — of inflation rising to around 13%. many of inflation rising to around 13%. mortgage holders the many mortgage holders will be hit by the bank raising interest rates by 0.5% in an effort to counteract rising prices. if we don't act, inflation will become more embedded, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates by more. and we have to act to stop that. it's really, really hard at the moment, because the rent has gone

up, all the bills have gone up.