today at six: a bleak warning from the bank of england which predicts a uk economic recession at the end of this year — which will last all the way through 2023. soaring domestic energy prices have triggered another warning from the bank — of inflation rising to around 13%. many of inflation rising to around 13%. mortgage holders the many mortgage holders will be hit by the bank raising interest rates by 0.5% in an effort to counteract rising prices. if we don't act, inflation will become more embedded, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates by more. and we have to act to stop that. it's really, really hard at the moment, because the rent has gone

up, all the bills have gone up. it's just really difficult. and all the food prices, the fuel prices. we'll be asking when we might hope for better economic news — and what the two people vying to become prime minister might do to help. also on the programme... china releases images of the country's launch of ballistic missiles into waters around taiwan, in response to a senior us democrat visiting the island nation yesterday. the bbc should have done more to explore claims of sexual misconduct made against the former dj tim westwood says an internal review. and at the commonwealth games, geraint thomas suffers a bruising crash — but still takes bronze in the men's cycling time trial. and coming up on the bbc news channel... we'll have the latest from the women's open at muirfield, where japan's hinako shibuno has impressed with a first round of 65.

good evening. the bank of england has given a very downbeat assessment of the state of the economy — warning that it will fall into recession this year. it forecasts that the economy will shrink in the final three months of 2022, and then keep on shrinking until the end of next year. it would make it the longest downturn since the financial crisis in 2008. and there's more sobering news on inflation, which is the rate at which prices rise — which the bank forecasts will rise from 9.4% to over 13%, driven by the sharp rise in energy bills. in an effort to curb those soaring prices, the bank of england raised interest rates by half a percentage point to 1.75% — and that's the biggest increase in 27 years. 0ur economics editor faisal islam reports.

prices are inflating, interest rates are going up and the economy in general is about to pop. that is the view of the bank of england, and at the small business in wales which manufactures bubble mixture, they see it too. it manufactures bubble mixture, they see it too. , ., see it too. it is something that could step _ see it too. it is something that could step a — see it too. it is something that could stop a business - see it too. it is something that could stop a business like - see it too. it is something that| could stop a business like ours. normally you get rate rises to temper down a boom in the economy, it is growing out of control, house prices are going up and up. does that seem like what we got right now? ., �* ., ., , now? no, we've got the opposite. we've not now? no, we've got the opposite. we've got an _ now? no, we've got the opposite. we've got an economy _ now? no, we've got the opposite. we've got an economy that - now? no, we've got the opposite. we've got an economy that is - we've got an economy that is shrinking, post—pandemic, post—brexit, and now with war, an energy crisis, there are crises coming at us and the economy is visibly shrinking. and the cost, the purchasing power of every single person is going down. at

purchasing power of every single person is going down. at the bank of vinland, the — person is going down. at the bank of vinland, the governor— person is going down. at the bank of vinland, the governor presented - person is going down. at the bank of vinland, the governor presented the | vinland, the governor presented the grim news with some troubling charts, mostly heading in the wrong direction. just explain simply to somebody at home facing £300 a month energy bills why their mortgage costs have to go up. if energy bills why their mortgage costs have to go up.— energy bills why their mortgage costs have to go up. if we don't act now, and costs have to go up. if we don't act now. and i — costs have to go up. if we don't act now, and i realise _ costs have to go up. if we don't act now, and i realise how— costs have to go up. if we don't act now, and i realise how difficult - now, and i realise how difficult this is, i realise, particularly for those on lower incomes, particularly those on lower incomes, particularly those with higher borrowing costs, but if we don't act, inflation will become more embedded, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates by more. and we have to act to stop that. the interest rates by more. and we have to act to stop that.— to act to stop that. the bank is predicting _ to act to stop that. the bank is predicting a — to act to stop that. the bank is predicting a serious _ to act to stop that. the bank is predicting a serious recession. | to act to stop that. the bank is i predicting a serious recession. at the same time, cost of living pressures are getting worse, with the rate of inflation now set to peak at 13% at the beginning of next year, and still around 10% in a year's time, as average energy bills reach £300 per month. to stop inflation staying at these levels for years, the bank is raising interest rates for the sixth successive time, up by the largest amount in quarter of a century, half

amount in quarter of a century, half a percentage point. 0n the streets of cardiff, the overall hit two household incomes is becoming clear to all. it’s household incomes is becoming clear to all. �* , ., household incomes is becoming clear to all. �*, ., ., ., household incomes is becoming clear toall. ., .,, ,, ., to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial— to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress _ to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress is _ to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress is one - to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress is one of - to all. it's a lot of stress, and | financial stress is one of those hidden ones nobody wants to talk about. and the prices are so high now that i've had to start cutting back. if they do keep going up, we are going to see a lot more, you know, homelessness, we are going to see a lot more people applying for benefits. w , see a lot more people applying for benefits. ,,., , ., , ., benefits. savings have been eroded. it's 'ust not benefits. savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. _ benefits. savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. none _ benefits. savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. none of _ benefits. savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. none of it - benefits. savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. none of it is - it'sjust not good. none of it is good — it'sjust not good. none of it is aood. ~ , ., ., , it'sjust not good. none of it is nood.~ , ., .,, , good. we 'ust have to see exactly how the good. we just have to see exactly how the government _ good. we just have to see exactly how the government goes - good. we just have to see exactly how the government goes when l good. we just have to see exactly i how the government goes when we good. we just have to see exactly - how the government goes when we get a new prime minister coming in, and what they do. a new prime minister coming in, and what they do-— what they do. back at the bank, the covernor what they do. back at the bank, the governor knows _ what they do. back at the bank, the governor knows who _ what they do. back at the bank, the governor knows who he _ what they do. back at the bank, the governor knows who he blames - what they do. back at the bank, the governor knows who he blames for| what they do. back at the bank, the l governor knows who he blames for all of this. we governor knows who he blames for all of this. ~ ., governor knows who he blames for all of this. ~ . , governor knows who he blames for all of this. ~ ., , , governor knows who he blames for all of this. ~ . , _ ., governor knows who he blames for all ofthis. ~ . , _ ., , of this. we have been hit by a very severe shock. _ of this. we have been hit by a very severe shock, and _ of this. we have been hit by a very severe shock, and that _ of this. we have been hit by a very severe shock, and that is - of this. we have been hit by a very severe shock, and that is coming l severe shock, and that is coming through— severe shock, and that is coming through energy prices. we've got to be blunt_ through energy prices. we've got to be blunt about this, it's coming from _ be blunt about this, it's coming from the — be blunt about this, it's coming from the actions of russia. as you say, _ from the actions of russia. as you say. yes, — from the actions of russia. as you say. yes, we — from the actions of russia. as you say, yes, we are forecasting a recession _ say, yes, we are forecasting a recession-— say, yes, we are forecasting a recession. ., ., , ., , , ., recession. you are blaming russia for that, but _ recession. you are blaming russia for that, but economic _ recession. you are blaming russia for that, but economic policy - recession. you are blaming russia for that, but economic policy is . recession. you are blaming russia| for that, but economic policy is set here. ~ ., ., ., .,

here. what i would say to that is not our concern _ here. what i would say to that is not our concern is _ here. what i would say to that is not our concern is that to - here. what i would say to that is not our concern is that to ensure that this very big shock that is going to hit people this winter does not get embedded into the system. that's the real concern we have. the big decision — that's the real concern we have. the big decision was to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. the big surprise was the forecast of not just the big surprise was the forecast of notjust inflation 13%, but, the same time, a recession lasting longer than a year. that would upend household finances of many ordinary families, and it could wreck the government's finances too. so the calculations underpinning the debate about who will be our next prime minister. right now, there are few good options and a sense for households, for the bank of england done for the government that we are not fully in control of rampant inflation and its impact on the economy. and faisaljoins me now. it's very grim news — put it into context for us? it's pretty rare for the bank of england to pre—emptively predict a

recession in this way. it's a proper, serious recession. we can put that in some sort of context with a chart from the bank of england that shows, i think, with the red line, that is the prediction for the next couple of years. it would be the first recession lasting over a year since the orange line, the 2008 financial crisis. you can see that was a lot deeper, that involved half the banking system in the uk nearly going bankrupt. it is a little bit more like the early 19905 a little bit more like the early 1990s recession. so still pretty serious, but not quite as bad as in the 1990s. the important thing is that, ordinarily, in situations like that, ordinarily, in situations like that, interest rates would be falling to help support the economy. but the huge rise in inflation prevents that. in this sort of situation, the divvying up of responsibility, the textbook response, is that the bank of england will try to deal with this inflation with these interest rate rises, but it means the job of government to support the economy and prevent the recession getting

worse, well, that just got bigger. the bank of england also warned the typical energy bill will be £3500 in october, which comes as the energy regulator announced that changes to the energy price cap will be made every three months, ratherthan price cap will be made every three months, rather than every six months. emma simpson is here. the energy price cap started three and a half years ago and applies in england, scotland and wales. it sets a limit on how much energy suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity you use on the standard variable rate, which most of us are now on. but it's not a cap on how much your bill is. if you use more energy, you'll pay more. it's now going to be reviewed every three months. 0fgem says doing it twice a year is no longer sustainable, given the dramatic changes in the global cost of energy that

suppliers need to buy. we've got to make sure the pricing regulation adapt to this market. because of it doesn't do so, will face higher prices for longerand, equally, we may well see more supplier failures, which ultimately comes back on the same customers and ends up with all of us paying more. so we've got to strike a balance here. if we look at this chart you can see what this may mean for our bills. it starts with october last year, this was the typical annual household bill for gas and electricity. it nearly doubled in april. the bank of england expect the price cap to go to £3500 by october. analysts are predicting even higher bills forjanuary when the cap changes again. fuel poverty campaigners say the regulators should have stuck to the current system a bit longer. the decision is essentially inhumane. it's going to come at the worst possible time for families, after they've been through three months of really difficult conditions in the winter, making sacrifices, making

the decision between heating or eating. they are then going to be hit with another rise in energy bills injanuary. 0fgem says it had extremely difficult trade—offs to make. it's urging customers struggling with bills to contact their supplier, as they are duty bound to help you with an affordable payment plan. the government is knocking £400 off people's energy bills, part of a huge support package. but the pressure's now on for the new prime minister to do more. with boris johnson with borisjohnson about with boris johnson about to with borisjohnson about to depart, how is the government likely to respond? alex forsyth is in westminster.— respond? alex forsyth is in westminster. , ., , westminster. there is a contest coin: westminster. there is a contest auoin on westminster. there is a contest going on to _ westminster. there is a contest going on to replace _ westminster. there is a contest going on to replace boris - westminster. there is a contest. going on to replace boris johnson going on to replace borisjohnson and the economy has so far been the clearest dividing line. rishi sunak says you got to get a grip of inflation before you cut taxes. liz truss says cut taxes immediately, to help boost the economy. and they have both talked about help for

households. rishi sunak points to the support package you put in place when he was chancellor, and he says he would cut vat on domestic fuel bills. liz truss say she would suspend green levies on energy bills and say she wants to hold an emergency budget. there is another element to this. all the time the leadership contest is playing out, there is a limit to what the government can do. it has said it will not make any major economic announcements until there is a new prime minister in place. the current prime minister in place. the current prime minister, borisjohnson, is on holiday, and the current chancellor, the nadhim zahawi, is away with his family. all the time, this bleak economic picture is unfurling. it will be the dominant issue for whoever gets the keys to number 10. they have to put their promises that they make while touring the tv studios into practice pretty quickly, and the probability is that they will have to do that.

there's more updates, news and analysis on bbc news 0nline — that's bbc.co.uk/news and by using the bbc news app. the family of 12—year—old archie battersbee are waiting to hearfrom the high court if they can move him from the royal london hospital to a hospice. the 12—year—old has been in a coma since he was found unconscious after an accident at his home in essex in april. yesterday the european court of human rights rejected their request to postpone the withdrawal of his life support. 0ur correspondent helena wilkinson is outside the royal london hospital. a long wait for his parents? yes, a hither a long wait for his parents? yes, a higher court _ a long wait for his parents? yes, a higher court order _ a long wait for his parents? yes, a higher court order made _ a long wait for his parents? yes, a higher court order made last - a long wait for his parents? yes, a| higher court order made last month requires that archie should be here at the hospital when his life—support treatment is withdrawn. at his family, as you have mentioned, want to move from the hospital here, to hospice, to a hospice. his mother has said that

she wants her son in a peaceful setting, where his family can say goodbye to him. for that, they require permission from the high court, which is considering the family's application. but parts nhs trust, which runs the hospital where arch is being treated, they previously said they would oppose any application to transfer archie, they said his condition is so unstable that moving him even a small distance could create a significant risk. he has been treated here for nearly four months, having treatments and also on life support. the doctors say that he is brain—dead and has no chance of recovery. they say archie was not the best interests are at the forefront of the decisions they make. but for the family, this continues to be absolutely agonising time. reeta. continues to be absolutely agonising time- reeta-— a bleak warning from

the bank of england — it predicts a uk economic recession at the end of this year — and coming up — how birds around the world are living with our litter — including disposable facemasks. coming up in sportsday on the bbc news channel... we'll have the latest from the commonwealth games where geraint thomas won cycling bronze for wales — despite crashing in the men's time trial. taiwan says china has fired multiple missiles into the sea just miles from its coast — at the start of military exercises arranged by beijing in response to the controversial visit by the senior us democrat, nancy pelosi. these boxed areas in red show how close to the island those drills are being carried out. taiwan says it means ships and planes are prevented from using the space — violating its sovereignty, and amounting to a blockade. taiwan is self—governing and regards

itself as independent, but beijing sees it as a breakaway province that will eventually be brought back under its control. this report from taipai is from our correspondent, rupert wingfield—hayes. ill it began with ill this barrage of rockets streaking into the sky from the southeast coast of china. it's thought these came down somewhere in the middle of the taiwan strait. but this was just the prelude. further inland, rocket forces were preparing to launch these much bigger and much more capable ballistic missiles. in all, china is thought to have fired ii of these missiles into waters around taiwan. japan says several of them also fell inside its exclusive economic zone. in the chinese capital, beijing, nationalist sentiment is now running high. translation: i think this pelosi's visit is a good thing. _ it gives us an opportunity to surround taiwan, then use this

opportunity to take taiwan by force earlier than expected. i think we should thank comrade pelosi. so this is exactly what we suspected might happen. this afternoon, china fired dongfeng ballistic missiles from the coast of china across the taiwan strait and they fell into waters in the exclusion zones just here off the north taiwan coast. now, the primary objective is obviously intimidation, but these tests also bring tremendous disruption to taiwan's shipping industry, to its airline industry, and to its large and important fishing fleets. 0n the dockside, we found these rather glum fishermen fixing their nets. they can't go fishing, and no fish means no income. this captain told me he tried to put to sea, only to be ordered back by the coast guard. "we don't know where these exclusion zones are," he told me. "so we have no choice but to do what the coast guard tells us." taiwan's defence ministry has described these missile tests as an attempt to blockade the island. but this retired navy captain

told me what china is really doing is an elaborate performance. translation: what china is engaged in is psychological warfare. _ all the missiles being fired, all the explosions, is to show china's domestic audience how tough beijing is being, while at the same time intimidating the people of taiwan. it is nevertheless an impressive show and illustrates just how far china's military has come in the last two decades. and it's not over yet. captain liu says china's next step could be to fire a missile over the top of taiwan, something it has never attempted to do before. rupert wingfield—hayes, bbc news, in taipei.

the bbc should have further explored issues that were being raised about the former dj tim westwood. that's the finding of the bbc�*s independent director, sir nicholas serota, following an internal review into allegations of sexual misconduct. the veteran dj left the bbc in 2013. the bbc is in contact with the metropolitan police and have said they will pass on any relevant information. our correspondent chi chi izundu has been investigating the story, and has this report. 19 years at the bbc, at one point commanding more than 700,000 listeners to his weekly radio i rap show and once described as one of the most influential people in hip hop in europe. now, tim westwood's time at the corporation and what the bbc knew about his conduct is to be investigated independently. it follows allegations

made by 17 women who, as part of an earlierjoint investigation by bbc news and the guardian, made accusations against the 64—year—old ranging from sexual misconduct to sex with a 14—year—old over three decades. when questioned after the first documentary was broadcast back in april, the bbc�*s director general tim davie said... i've seen no evidence of complaints. i've seen no evidence. i've seen no evidence of complaint. i've asked and we looked at our records and we've seen no evidence. today the bbc revealed it did have several complaints against tim westwood, including one in 2012, where the dj was accused of making inappropriate sexual comments to a 15—year—old girl.

that was referred to police but officers later decided to take no further action. the bbc says it wants anyone with any evidence to come forward and it's inviting other employers of tim westwood to join this external investigation. so we know that he worked at capital radio and we also know that he worked at mtv, for example. separately, mtv has said, although it's never had any complaints, it has started its own internal investigation. the metropolitan police has confirmed it's currently investigating a man over four reports of previous sexual offences. the bbc says it's also in contact with police. today's review was led by the bbc�*s independent director nick serota, who said... this is the 18th woman to have come forward. she says she wanted work experience at bbc radio one extra and met tim westwood back in 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know what was happening. i didn't know. different things going through my head. have i given this man the wrong impression? what on earth is happening?

from that, it quickly turned into sexual intercourse. no words, just... just moving me into a position and me thinking, "oh, my god, what the hell do i do?" and him proceeding to do whatever he wanted to do. we put this latest allegation and today's report to tim westwood for comment, but he didn't respond. despite today's review, questions will still remain over what complaints the bbc had and what they did about them. if you've been affected by any of the issues raised in this story, information and support is available on the bbc action line website.

now a look at some other stories making the news today. tourists in iceland have flocked to this spectacular scene — a volcano near the capital reykjavik which erupted yesterday. nearly 2,000 people visited the site to watch the fountains of red hot lava of between 10 and 15 metres high. this eruption is not expected to spew much ash or smoke into the atmosphere. marine scientists say that coral in parts of australia's great barrier reef have recovered well after storms and bleaching, which occurs when water temperature levels rise. the reef�*s northern and central parts have the highest amount of coral cover since monitoring began 36 years ago, although it has decreased in the southern part. disposable face masks are blighting birdlife in 23 countries around the world. that's the finding from an online project called birds and debris, in which people submitted photos and reports of birds nesting or entangled in rubbish. scientists collecting and studying the images say birds in almost every continent are now living in our litter. our science correspondent victoria gill reports.

a grim but familiar sight in many urban waterways. how many different types of plastic are just floating here? yeah, i can see easily, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven... seven or eight different kinds of plastic, just here. and it's the wildlife that inhabits these waterways that's living with — and living in — our rubbish. these images, submitted by members of the public and collected by scientists, show the global extent of the problem. scientists asked people to upload photographs and reports of birds entangled or nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than any of us imagined. we've got about 400 reports covering every continent except antarctica. wow. more recently, many of those photos have featured pandemic—related waste. i'd say probably about 20% of what we see on birds and debris involves ppe in some way. almost all of it is masks.

is that more of an environmental problem than a plastic bag or a plastic bottle? yeah, so masks is not just one thing. you think about you've got the ear loops, which are made of elastic, you've got sheeting on them, you've got the rigid piece of flexible plastic that, you know, fits over your nose. so you've got a whole bunch of ways that wildlife can seemingly interact with this. 0k, buddy. in some cases, like this one in stratford—on—avon, nature lovers have been able to help. hey, come on, buddy. 0h, perfect, well done. there we go. but this project shows the surge in pandemic—related waste that's ending up in the environment. although face masks were very important in protecting humans against the covid—i9 pandemic, it's important to know that if we don't dispose of these items properly, they can have a much more sinister afterlife. and, unfortunately, they can be the difference between life and death for so many animals that we love around the world. the systems we have for managing

all this waste, these scientists say, are failing. and it's wildlife and wild spaces that are bearing the consequences. victoria gill, bbc news. there are 15 gold medals up for grabs in the commonwealth games in birmingham. in the cycling road race, bitter disappointment struck for geraint thomas, as an early crash dashed his gold medal hopes. ina in a moment we will speak to nesta mcgregor who has been watching athletics at the alexander stadium, but first here is natalie pirks at the aquatics centre for the diving. i'm having to be quiet because we are watching the men's one metre springboard final at the moment. we are two dives into their six.

scotland's james heatly is the second—best qualifier, it is jack laugher who is the biggest draw here. these come here off the back of record achievements at the world championships. his hat—trick of medals in budapest was unprecedented for a british diver at a single world championships. he got silver in this particular event and says he is going for gold. his grandma lived nearby and died a few months before this event. he is third, his second dive was particularly strong, but it is his compatriotjordan houlden who leads at this stage. we have the women's ten metre platform final coming up, and andrea spendolini

sirieix will be competing, the daughter of first dates' fred. bubbling along nicely, we haven't reached _ bubbling along nicely, we haven't reached boiling point yet. if you like watching medals being handed out, you _ like watching medals being handed out, you have the ticket for the perfect — out, you have the ticket for the perfect day because there are nine medai— perfect day because there are nine medal ceremonies tonight and only ei-ht medal ceremonies tonight and only eight events. in about 20 minutes, eintends— eight events. in about 20 minutes, england's katarina johnson—thompson picks up— england's katarina johnson—thompson picks up her_ england's katarina johnson—thompson picks up her gold for the heptathlon, she won that last night. her team—mate jane o'dowd got the bronze _ her team—mate jane o'dowd got the bronze we — her team—mate jane o'dowd got the bronze. we should also get a glimpse of kenya's— bronze. we should also get a glimpse of kenya's ferdinand omanyala. tonight— of kenya's ferdinand omanyala. tonight look no further than sammy

kinghorn _ tonight look no further than sammy kinghorn in — tonight look no further than sammy kinghorn in the final of the t53 and t54 wheelchair race. she is a speed demon _ t54 wheelchair race. she is a speed demon. then the night ends with the 110 metres_ demon. then the night ends with the 110 metres hurdles, two english athletes — 110 metres hurdles, two english athletes in that including andrew pozzi _ athletes in that including andrew pozzi from the west midlands, so regardless of what i have said, if he wins — regardless of what i have said, if he wins a — regardless of what i have said, if he wins a medal tonight that could be worth— he wins a medal tonight that could be worth the ticket price alone. many— be worth the ticket price alone. many thanks. the tv presenter, actress and singer kym marsh and the actor will mellor have been announced as the first two contestants in the new series of strictly come dancing. theyjoin a new line—up of stars when it returns to bbc one next month and will see audiences also returning to the studio this year. an earlier announcement revealed four new professional dancers willjoin the team. time for a look at the weather with

thomas —— tomasz schafernaker. and it is heating up again? yes. it is heating up again? yes, temperatures _ it is heating up again? yes, temperatures surtees -- i it is heating up again? yes, - temperatures surtees -- certainly it is heating up again? ye: temperatures surtees —— certainly in the low 30s, perhaps the mid 30s next week. not as widespread or as hot as we have had but temperatures will be on the rise. the one thing we need is rainfall, it is so dry out there, but not completely dry because we do have some shower clouds and they have been mostly affecting northern areas of the uk. let's zoom into the satellite picture. you will notice a scattering of shower clouds here across northern ireland, parts of scotland, and the wind tends to push them into northern england but then by the time we get to midlands and the south, the showers fizzle away and hence it always stays dry so the next few days really not a drop of rain across southern areas. let's look at the forecast for tomorrow

morning. a bit of a nip in the air first thing tomorrow morning, but again that pattern again, the north—westerly breeze pushing in the showers to western areas, maybe sum into yorkshire, perhaps as far east as lincolnshire. on that breeze, around 17 also, further south and east where it is dry around 24. the same pattern continues into saturday, but on saturday we lose most of the wind in the south, high pressure builds in, and the temperatures rise. 26 in london, starting to feel hot, then by the time we get to sunday, the temperatures will continue to rise as we see this big azores high building across the uk well into europe and we draw in the heat from the southern climes. this is i think quite a conservative estimate for the temperatures, for example in the south—east. i wouldn't be surprised if they are higher than 30 degrees. cardiff could be pushing 30 later in

the week, but further than it looks like things will