a double warning from the bank of england which there is a recession is coming and inflation could peak at 13% by december. gdp is coming and inflation could peak at 1396 by december.— is coming and inflation could peak at 1396 by december. gdp growth has slowed and the _ at 1396 by december. gdp growth has slowed and the economy _ at 1396 by december. gdp growth has slowed and the economy is _ at 1396 by december. gdp growth has slowed and the economy is forecast i slowed and the economy is forecast to enter recession this year. interest rates rise by half a point to i.75%, the interest rates rise by half a point to i.75%, the biggest in 30 years. some firms say the decision is concerning. some firms say the decision is concerning-— some firms say the decision is concerninu. �*, . , , , concerning. it's crippling, interest rate rises could _ concerning. it's crippling, interest rate rises could stop _ concerning. it's crippling, interest rate rises could stop a _ concerning. it's crippling, interest rate rises could stop a small - rate rises could stop a small business like us. fix, rate rises could stop a small business like us.— business like us. a high court heafina business like us. a high court hearing is _ business like us. a high court hearing is set _ business like us. a high court hearing is set to _ business like us. a high court hearing is set to begin - business like us. a high court hearing is set to begin in the l business like us. a high court - hearing is set to begin in the next hour to determine whether archie battersby can be moved into a

hospice. china launches several ballistic missiles into waters around taiwan following a senior us leader's divisive visit to the island. the bbc announces an independent review into the allegations surrounding tim westwood, and his conduct when he worked for the company. and how disposable face marks are affecting birdlife in 23 countries around the world. the bank of england has given a very downbeat assessment of the state of the economy, warning that it will fall into recession this year. it forecasts the economy will shrink in the final three months of 2022, and

keep on drinking until the end of next year. inflation, the rate at which prices rise, which the bank forecasts will rise to over 13%, driven by the sharp rise in energy bills. in an effort to curb soaring prices, the bank of england raised interest rates by 0.5% to i.75%, the biggest in 27 years. our economic editor has this report. prices are inflating, interest rates are going up and the economy in general is about to pop. that's the view of the bank of england, and at this small business in bangor, wales which manufactures environmentally friendly bubble mixture, they see it too. it's crippling. interest rate rises are something that could really stop a small business like us. normally you get these rate rises to temper down a booming economy, it is growing, out of control, house prices are going up and up. does that really seem what we've got right now? no, we've got the opposite, haven't we? we've got an economy

that is shrinking, post—pandemic, post—brexit, and now with war, with energy crisis, there are crises coming at us and the economy is visibly shrinking. and the cost, the purchasing power of every single person is going down. at the bank of england, the governor presented the grim news with some troubling charts, mostly heading in the wrong direction. just explain simply to somebody at home, who's facing £300 a month energy bills, why their mortgage costs have to go up. if we don't act now, and i realise how difficult this is, i realise, as we were saying, particularly for those on lower incomes, particularly those with higher borrowing costs, but if we don't act, inflation will become more embedded, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates by more. and we have to act to stop that. the bank is predicting a serious recession. at the same time, cost of living

pressures are getting worse, with the rate of inflation now set to peak at 13% at the beginning of next year, and still around 10% in a year's time, as average energy bills reach nearly £300 per month. to stop inflation staying at these levels for years, the bank is raising interest rates for the sixth successive time, up by the largest amount in over quarter of a century — half a percentage point. 0n the streets of cardiff, the overall hit two household incomes is becoming clear to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress is one of those hidden ones nobody wants to talk about. the prices are so high now that i've had to start cutting back. if they do keep going up, we are going to see a lot more, you know, homelessness, we are going to see a lot more people applying for benefits. 0ur savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. _ just from the day—to—day. none of it is good. we just have to see exactly how the government goes when we get a new prime minister coming in, and what they do. back at the bank,

the governor bailey knows who he blames for all of this. we've been hit by a very severe shock, and that shock is coming through energy prices. we've got to be blunt about this, it's coming from the actions of russia. as you say, yes, we are forecasting a recession now. you are blaming russia for that, but economic policy is set here. what i would say to that is that our concern is that to ensure that this very big shock, that is going to hit people this winter, does not get embedded into the system. that's the real concern we have. the big decision today was to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. the big surprise was the forecast of notjust inflation at 13% but, at the same time, a recession lasting longer than a year. that would upend thhe household finances of many ordinary families, and it could wreck the government's finances too, and so the calculations underpinning the debate about who will be our next prime minister. right now, there are few good

options and a sense for households, for the bank of england and for the government that we are not fully in control of rampant inflation and its impact on the economy. joining me now is the chief european economist of an investment firm, and a former bank of england employee, so you have some insight into the thinking today. it has been accepted but people are very nervous. they still don't quite know what we are talking about, when we say recession. what is the bank of england trying to avoid? what can we expect in the coming months? the bank of expect in the coming months? tue: bank of england expect in the coming months? tte: bank of england is reacting to the lies we have seen in inflation, and as the governor described to us earlier today, a key driver of headline inflation has been energy

prices. we have seen that in the prices. we have seen that in the price of petrol at the pump, in terms of higher utility prices, but of course energy goes into pretty much everything else that we buy. so we are now starting to see a more broad—based rise in prices. but what the government also explained earlier today is this rise in energy prices is coming from geopolitical shocks, associated with russia's invasion of ukraine. and there's very little of the bank of england can do about the direct impact of that shock. what it can do, however, is be very focused at preventing these price rises that we have seen from becoming recurring. in governor bailey's words, getting embedded into the uk economy. it's for that reason that the bank of england has acted today, as it has done fairly

consistently since the end of last year. 50 consistently since the end of last ear. ., , consistently since the end of last ear, ., , , consistently since the end of last ear. ., , , .,, year. so in a nutshell, they hope we send year. so in a nutshell, they hope we spend less. — year. so in a nutshell, they hope we spend less, demand _ year. so in a nutshell, they hope we spend less, demand goes _ year. so in a nutshell, they hope we spend less, demand goes down, - year. so in a nutshell, they hope we i spend less, demand goes down, prices come down, we are all happy, but is it really as simple as that? is it going to take more than a rise in interest rates to tame inflation, which isn'tjust exclusive to the uk? which isn't “ust exclusive to the uk? ., �* , which isn't “ust exclusive to the uk? . a y which isn't “ust exclusive to the uk? y , uk? that's absolutely right, these are ulobal uk? that's absolutely right, these are global shocks. _ uk? that's absolutely right, these are global shocks. first _ uk? that's absolutely right, these are global shocks. first the - are global shocks. first the pandemic, now the energy price shock. the uk is experiencing the impact like many other countries around the world. in that sense, policy makers here are battling very similar issues as all around us. going back to your initial question, where is this going, the bank of england has been an early and consistent in terms of raising interest rates, as i said, over the

course of this year. and that should stand them in good stead, in the sense that we can expect perhaps going forward that further rate rises will be relatively limited. but you are right, it's not a simple solution. the bank of england itself has said the problem is incredibly uncertain, and for that reason, they are looking at different scenarios, how they could play out and what that would mean for the uk economy, and they stand ready to adjust their policy decisions in real time, as we learn the full impact of the shocks that have already happened, as they begin to crystallise in terms of the impact on the real economy. briefly, can ou impact on the real economy. briefly, can you explain _ impact on the real economy. briefly, can you explain why _ impact on the real economy. briefly, can you explain why banks _ impact on the real economy. briefly, can you explain why banks behave i impact on the real economy. briefly, l can you explain why banks behave the way they do? people will notice almost immediately that any fixed

rate mortgage offer they have been offered in the last few days will have changed dramatically in the last few hours, it's going to be more expensive. mortgage rates seem to go in line with interest rates, but rates on savings accounts don't. why do banks do that? why do they pump up why do banks do that? why do they pump up the cost of a mortgage but don't give you much back on your savings? don't give you much back on your savinus? . v don't give you much back on your savinus? ., �*, .,, , savings? that's right, as we see the bank of england _ savings? that's right, as we see the bank of england raising _ bank of england raising rates, generally those higher rates are going to benefit savers, but be less favourable for borrowers. so as you say, households with mortgages will see the mortgage is going up, may be some of the investment plans... the net impact of these effects is going to be a cooling of the uk economy. but could the banks do more to help us have more money in our bank

accounts and has more comfort? the uk has very — accounts and has more comfort? tte: uk has very open and competitive banks in the system, i'm not sure i can comment much more than to say that these things do impact with a lag, and it will take time. we have also seen interest rates have been rising this year, and the full impact will only happen with a bit of a lag. this could be why... inaudible. the bank of england also warned that

the typical energy bill will be £3500 by october, changes to the energy price cap will now be made every three months rather than every six months. every three months rather than every six months-— every three months rather than every six months-— six months. ofgem says doing it twice a year— six months. ofgem says doing it twice a year is — six months. ofgem says doing it twice a year is no _ six months. ofgem says doing it twice a year is no longer- twice a year is no longer sustainable given the dramatic changes in the cost of energy that supplies need to buy. we

changes in the cost of energy that supplies need to buy.— supplies need to buy. we have to make sure _ supplies need to buy. we have to make sure the _ supplies need to buy. we have to make sure the pricing _ supplies need to buy. we have to make sure the pricing regulationl make sure the pricing regulation happens — make sure the pricing regulation happens in this market because otherwise... inaudible. we have to strike a balance here. tt we look at this chart, you can see what this may mean for the bills. 0ctober what this may mean for the bills. october last year, this was the annual typical household bill for gas and electricity, and it doubled in april. the bank of england expects the price cap to go to £3500 ijy expects the price cap to go to £3500 by october, and analysts predict even higher bills injanuary, when the cap changes again. the even higher bills in january, when the cap changes again. the decision is essentially _ the cap changes again. the decision is essentially inhumane, _ the cap changes again. the decision is essentially inhumane, it's going l is essentially inhumane, it's going to come _ is essentially inhumane, it's going to come out the worst possible time for families, after they have been to three _ for families, after they have been to three months of really difficult conditions in the winter, making sacrifices, — conditions in the winter, making sacrifices, deciding between heating and eating, they will have another

rate rise _ and eating, they will have another rate rise in — and eating, they will have another rate rise in the energy bills in january. _ january. inaudible. the pressure is now on for the new prime minister to do more. we the pressure is now on for the new prime minister to do more.- prime minister to do more. we are “oined b prime minister to do more. we are joined by the _ prime minister to do more. we are joined by the consumer _ prime minister to do more. we are joined by the consumer financial i joined by the consumer financial specialist at royal london investment company. a lot of worried people tonight. the pressure on their bank accounts and finances is growing by the week. is it good news or bad news that often want the price cap reviewed every three months instead six months? inaudible.

off 0ff gem have been saying that the reason we had dozens of energy supply is failing in the last 18 months was in part because of the energy price cap lasting for six months. secondly, when prices start to fall, consumers will start to feel the benefit. the problem is the timing. we know they are going to rise sharply in october, although we don't now how much buy. but the predictions of a further rise in january, so a lot of people will be dismayed, because we have had so much change in the last few weeks. the interest rate rising.

inaudible. hopefully when prices come down, they will feel the benefit. a lot of people sitting in the dark tonight watching bbc news, not a joke... people trying to save as much on the bills as possible. are there clever ways of dealing with

this? ., , ., ., , this? people are frightened to put on their heating _ this? people are frightened to put on their heating come _ this? people are frightened to put on their heating come the - this? people are frightened to put| on their heating come the autumn. drastic measures to save money on energy bills. sadly, room for manoeuvre is extremely limited because you can't shop around. inaudible. you can pay by direct debit, some people pay their bill when it comes in quarterly. you generally pay a lower standing charge... you pay the same each month until prices rise of course...

the disadvantage is we have seen energy providers put up direct debit amount very sharply and that could happen again, and then the onus is on you to get the direct debit down to a reasonable amount. if you pay the bill quarterly, be aware that you will be paying a higher standing charge. the people on low energy use, doing everything they can to save money, it could catch them out. think that can save energy, panels behind the radiator, if you are not doing them already, have a look. make sure you are getting all the benefits you are entitled to. billions of pounds goes unclaimed every year. no benefit in particular aimed at people on state pension, it's called pension credit, you get a top up if you are not entitled to the full state pension, but

crucially you get the cost of living payment, £650... inaudible. 0nly inaudible. only two thirds of people entitled to claim them.— only two thirds of people entitled to claim them. really good advice, thank you- — to claim them. really good advice, thank you. let's _ to claim them. really good advice, thank you. let's cheer _ to claim them. really good advice, thank you. let's cheer ourselves i to claim them. really good advice, | thank you. let's cheer ourselves up a bit and get a round—up of the sport, particularly the commonwealth games. day seven of the commonwealth games in birmingham. plenty of medals, particularly for england. jack laugher has completed a hat—trick of commonwealth games one metre springboard titles in the diving. the yorkshireman wasn't at his best,

but he comfortably secured gold ahead of australia's two—time world champion, with england'sjordan champion, with england's jordan holden, champion, with england'sjordan holden, bronze medal on his commonwealth games debut, congratulations to both of them. felt a bit scared, but did my normal thing and it worked. inaudible. i like being pushed all the way. inaudible. i like bein: ushed all the wa . i like being pushed all the way. the first old i like being pushed all the way. the first gold medal of the day for england... inaudible. all the more impressive after the birth of her sun, look at the light on her face there. they

took silver. in the men's time trial, times have been hoping for another commonwealth goal is just a corner and he fell. it took some time to get back up and he fell in the constant precious seconds and the constant precious seconds and the time trial and that paved the way for fred right to win silver after a strong clean race for him. finishing in second behind the australian. tt finishing in second behind the australian.— australian. it is with this, you know. australian. it is with this, you know- it's _ australian. it is with this, you know- it's my _ australian. it is with this, you know. it's my fault _ australian. it is with this, you know. it's my fault and - australian. it is with this, you know. it's my fault and one . australian. it is with this, you| know. it's my fault and one of australian. it is with this, you - know. it's my fault and one of those things and yeah, just trying to refocus and legs are pretty good, to be honest and probably a bit of adrenaline straight after the crash and burn a bit to her to start with but no, to come with the metal, it

is ok in the end, i guess. find but no, to come with the metal, it is ok in the end, i guess.- is ok in the end, i guess. and the women's time _ is ok in the end, i guess. and the women's time trial, _ is ok in the end, i guess. and the women's time trial, there's - is ok in the end, i guess. and the i women's time trial, there's another metal for women's time trial, there's another metalfor england and women's time trial, there's another metal for england and they held the provisional gold—medal place and ultimately they'd snatched from her hands and eventually settled for silver. england's men's hockey team play australia in the semifinals of the competition. england needed to win by 111 clear goals to finish top of pool with two and in the last four, for a while it looks like they might actually do it but in the end, they had 11 goals to two, a big goal line there. earlier, the beat wells 4- line there. earlier, the beat wells 4— when the group stages that means india qualifies alongside england.

england's women brushed wales 5—0 and he scored a hat trick and also on target, england continued there and be disturbed in birmingham. they play the defending champions new zealand. more details on all of those metals, plus all of the ones to come onto tonight of the alexander stadium but that is it for now,. a monkeypox outbreak of public health emergency. that is a move thatis health emergency. that is a move that is expected to free up additional funding and tools to fight the disease. and monkeypox was a public health emergency and

concern, the highest alert level. the who declaration last month was designed to trigger a coordinated international, and to collaborate on vaccines and treatments. declarations of emergencies of our been declared in california, illinois and new york, more than 6000 cases have been reported across the united states. almost all of them among men who have sex with men. taiwan has accused china of jeopardising regional peace after china fired ballistic missiles into the water around the island. the military exercises were in response to the visit to taiwan or the senior american politician nancy pelosi. this report from taipei. it began with this barrage of rockets streaking into the sky

from the southeast coast of china. it's thought these came down somewhere in the middle of the taiwan strait. but this was just the prelude. further inland, rocket forces were preparing to launch these much bigger and much more capable ballistic missiles. in all, china is thought to have fired ii of these missiles into waters around taiwan. japan says several of them also fell inside its exclusive economic zone. in the chinese capital, beijing, nationalist sentiment is now running high. translation: i think this pelosi's visit is a good thing. _ it gives us an opportunity to surround taiwan, then use this opportunity to take taiwan by force earlier than expected. i think we should thank comrade pelosi. so this is exactly what we suspected might happen. this afternoon, china fired dongfeng ballistic missiles from the coast of china across the taiwan strait and they fell into waters in the exclusion zones just here off the north taiwan coast. now, the primary objective

is obviously intimidation, but these tests also bring tremendous disruption to taiwan's shipping industry, to its airline industry, and to its large and important fishing fleets. 0n the dockside, we found these rather glum fishermen fixing their nets. they can't go fishing, and no fish means no income. this captain told me he tried to put to sea, only to be ordered back by the coast guard. "we don't know where these exclusion zones are," he told me. "so we have no choice but to do what the coast guard tells us." taiwan's defence ministry has described these missile tests as an attempt to blockade the island. but this retired navy captain told me what china is really doing is an elaborate performance. translation: what china is engaged in is psychological warfare. _ all the missiles being fired, all the explosions, is to show china's domestic audience how tough beijing is being, while at the same time intimidating the people of taiwan. it is nevertheless an impressive

show and illustrates just how far china's military has come in the last two decades. and it's not over yet. captain liu says china's next step could be to fire a missile over the top of taiwan, something it has never attempted to do before. rupert wingfield—hayes, bbc news, in taipei. the bbc should have further explored issues being raised about the former dj tim westwood, that's the finding of the bbc�*s independent director following an internal review into allegations of sexual misconduct. the veteran dj left the bbc in 2013. the bbc is in contact with the metropolitan police and have said they will pass on any relevant information. our correspondent has been investigating the story. i9

19 years at the bbc, at one point, commanding more than 700,000 listeners to his weekly radio one rap show, once described as one of the most influential people in hip—hop in europe, now tim westwood's time at the corporation and what the bbc knew about conduct will be investigated independently following allegations by 17 women who as part of an earlierjoint investigation by bbc news and the guardian made allegations against the 64—year—old ranging from misconduct to sex with a 14—year—old over three decades. when questioned after the first documentary in april, the bbc director—general said... t april, the bbc director-general said... . , april, the bbc director-general said... ., , ., . said... i have seen no evidence of complaints- _ said. .. i have seen no evidence of complaints- l— said... i have seen no evidence of complaints. i have _ said... i have seen no evidence of complaints. i have asked, - said... i have seen no evidence of complaints. i have asked, and - said... i have seen no evidence of complaints. i have asked, and we| complaints. i have asked, and we looked at our records and we see no evidence. ., ., �* �* looked at our records and we see no evidence. ., ._ �* �* ., evidence. today the bbc revealed it did have several complaints - did have several complaints against tim westwood, including in 2012 when

he was accused of making inappropriate sexual comments to a 15—year—old girl. that was referred to police but officers later decided to police but officers later decided to take no further action. the bbc says it wants anyone with any evidence to come forward and it is inviting other employers or tim westwood to join this external investigation, so we know that he worked at capital radio and mtv, for example. separately, mtv have said although it's never had any complaints, it has started its own internal investigation. the metropolitan police has confirmed it is currently investigating a man over full reports of previous sexual offences. the bbc says it is also in contact with police. the review today was led by the bbc�*s independent director. he believed there may have been occasions in the past when the bbc should have further explored issues that were being raised. this is the 18th woman

to have come forward, she says she wanted work experience at bbc radio 1 extra, and met tim westwood in 2011 to discuss it. t 1 extra, and met tim westwood in 2011 to discuss it.— 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know what was happening. _ 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know what was happening. i - 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know what was happening. i didn't . 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know- what was happening. i didn't know, different things going through my hand, have i given this man the wrong impression? what on earth is happening? it quickly turned into sexual intercourse. no words, just moving me into a position and me thinking, oh, my god, what the hell do i do? and him doing whatever he wanted to do. we do i do? and him doing whatever he wanted to do-_ do i do? and him doing whatever he wanted to do. we put this allegation and the report _ wanted to do. we put this allegation and the report today _ wanted to do. we put this allegation and the report today to _ wanted to do. we put this allegation and the report today to tim - wanted to do. we put this allegation i and the report today to tim westwood to comment but he didn't respond. despite the review, questions will remain over what complaints the bbc had and what they did about them. if you have been affected by any of theissues if you have been affected by any of the issues raised in this story, information and support are

available on the bbc action line website or you can call, free of charge, at any time to he recorded information on oh 800 077 077. now the weather. it looked lovely earlier on. further north, passing showers for scotland and northern ireland. 0ne north, passing showers for scotland and northern ireland. one of those showers moving across the mountains and the highlands. the showers will continue overnight for scotland and northern ireland, and move across the irish sea and the isle of mann, to north north wales, but otherwise otherwise a dry night. comfortable conditions, tomorrow is a similar day. dry weather and sunshine across southern areas, in the north we will see a mixture of sunny spells and passing showers. temperatures not changing much. in the high teens

across the north. the warmest spot, 25 in eastern england. a largely dry weekend, as is next week with hotter temperatures, temperatures back up to 30 for some. them among men who have sex with men. the bank of england warns — of a year long recession — as it announces the biggest hike in interest rates, for nearly 30 years. it comes after similar moves by other central banks. interest rates rise 7.75%, the biggest nearly 30 years. the high court hearing is under way to determine whether or not archie can be moved to a hospice. the 12—year—old has been in a coma since april. china launches several ballistic missile tests. in

response, taiwan scramble jets to worn away aircraft. the bbc say they're setting up an independent inquiry to examine allegations of sexual misconduct and bullying by the dj tim westwood. different parts of the economy will be affected differently to the largest rise in interest rates in over 25 years, the interests of not .5% takes the base rate to its highest since december 2008. at 1.7.5%, rate to its highest since december 2008. at1.7.5%, how will rate to its highest since december 2008. at 1.7.5%, how will this impact the housing market, including mortgage rates. joining me now as entry teacher, an independent property expert and founder of blackstock consulting. we need your advice. a lot of people are worried tonight. was going to happen to the housing market was made up, down,

stagnant? housing market was made up, down, staunant? ., ., , stagnant? fundamentally, it will de-end stagnant? fundamentally, it will de end on stagnant? fundamentally, it will depend on who _ stagnant? fundamentally, it will depend on who you _ stagnant? fundamentally, it will depend on who you are - stagnant? fundamentally, it will depend on who you are but - stagnant? fundamentally, it will depend on who you are but your| depend on who you are but your spending and where you are buying. ultimately, the way in which we are seeing prices change, interest rates being driven up is through all of the factors of inflation and is quite difficult if they're going to fall in land because these are things that we have seen before, these are not things we can control it dispel any politician will come onto the bbc and say to you, there are things that are not going to be able to be sold overnight a nonbinding instrument announcements. it's seeing fallout from the war and also now, the cost of energy also to the ukraine war is putting out all sorts of different costs and construction, manufacturing across our economy. the housing market and

all of these things punch together and mean that people are building less homes, which is going to reduce supply and the cost of finance is going up, which is going to make it harderfor people to going up, which is going to make it harder for people to get this and what we are likely to see under the next three to six months is further raises, further rises to interest rates from the bank of england, which will put more pressure on everybody, in the short—term, roughly three quarters of people in britain have fixed rates and interest rates are fixed in the period of time and depending on how long this period of uncertainty lasts, those fixes could be a bridge over troubled waters, do use a musical analogy and what that means for those 25 and four people, they might be in variable rates, tracking reads, they can advise the situation and it can be late for them to do

so. ~ ., y ., �* and it can be late for them to do so. ~ ., �* and it can be late for them to do so. ., , and it can be late for them to do so. ., so. what you're saying is a fixed rate riaht so. what you're saying is a fixed rate right now— so. what you're saying is a fixed rate right now possibly - so. what you're saying is a fixed rate right now possibly the - so. what you're saying is a fixed - rate right now possibly the best way to get through this? went up as if you're really on a fixed rates yuri got six or seven or eight months left, what you do then? t’ee got six or seven or eight months left, what you do then? i've been talkin: left, what you do then? i've been talking about _ left, what you do then? i've been talking about this _ left, what you do then? i've been talking about this my _ left, what you do then? i've been talking about this my mortgage l talking about this my mortgage broker. ~ . , talking about this my mortgage broker-_ the i talking about this my mortgage - broker._ the lender broker. what did he say? the lender that i'm working _ broker. what did he say? the lender that i'm working with _ broker. what did he say? the lender that i'm working with doesn't, - broker. what did he say? the lender that i'm working with doesn't, hello | that i'm working with doesn't, hello anyone who works on the society, i'm talking to you. and that's going to be a bit of a challenge, lack of innovations and it's a good question and ultimately, there's no easy answers and there will be quite personal and in terms of your agreement, it will be charged a check to make in order to exit an ongoing agreement and in the cost of doing so, first as the you may make

and we don't know where rachel and up, they could end up 3%, the code of three and a half percent potentially the next 12 months and i could have a real impact on how the market is each year. we're seeing the pound take quite a beating in recent months that historically has been quite good for the property market because mix easier and cheaper for institutional foreign investors to come in and by opposing but that doesn't necessarily help people and places outside of london that and be less popular with international investments and i think the challenge i see right now and our business, we been taken over by a company that is a big research team talking with those guys about this and out they respond and as they come down to the business, what

politician should do right now, lots of politicians, including front runners, the two remaining candidates in the prime ministerial tory leaderships and both essentially staking out their claims in leaderships by opposing the building of new housing to satiate the designs of the tories. but hasn't liz _ the designs of the tories. but hasn't liz truss _ the designs of the tories. but hasn't liz truss so _ the designs of the tories. but hasn't liz truss so they want to accelerate how fast these things can be built? we have not heard a lot of details but we are beginning to hear things from both candidates. she is also referred _ things from both candidates. she is also referred to _ things from both candidates. she is also referred to stalinist _ things from both candidates. she is also referred to stalinist planning i also referred to stalinist planning rules and both candidates are against any kind of, and it depends on where you live.—

on where you live. green belt and buildin: on where you live. green belt and building warehouses, _ on where you live. green belt and building warehouses, let's - on where you live. green belt and building warehouses, let's face i on where you live. green belt and| building warehouses, let's face it, building warehouses, let's face it, building warehouses, let's face it, building warehouses, if you could just come and let me finish the question. building warehouses has never really, there's been lots of policies announced by building warehouses to drive house prices down does not on the face of it seemed to have worked so far. we've never done it — seemed to have worked so far. we've never done it and _ seemed to have worked so far. we've never done it and i'm _ seemed to have worked so far. we've never done it and i'm not _ seemed to have worked so far. we've never done it and i'm not saying - never done it and i'm not saying that it's the solution and the reason my we've never done it is partially because ideological things that we have against building more homes in this desire that everything should be done locally, weary totally afraid to take a long term policy decisions that would've benefited society and i give you the case of energy, the reason why we are in this energy crisis now is because we have no energy independence. he fed decades if

poodle of the nuclear power stations in the past 20 years, would have very few, much fewer problems than we have now. the housing front, again, we need to depoliticize this. we need to take it out of politics because ultimately, no politician is ever going to win votes by saying hey, you, come to my constituency, facing the by election. trlat hey, you, come to my constituency, facing the by election.— facing the by election. not in my back yard- _ facing the by election. not in my back yard. these _ facing the by election. not in my back yard. these three - facing the by election. not in my back yard. these three simple i facing the by election. not in my - back yard. these three simple words that i think whoever _ back yard. these three simple words that i think whoever winds. - back yard. these three simple words that i think whoever winds. very - that i think whoever winds. very briefly. build, build, build. there you go. but my plenty to send the subject and that's to be able to ask your question two. thank you for your time. your question two. thank you for your time-— your question two. thank you for our time. ., , ., ._ your question two. thank you for our time. ., , ., ., your time. some other news away from the endin: your time. some other news away from the pending recession _ your time. some other news away from the pending recession that _ your time. some other news away from the pending recession that we - your time. some other news away from the pending recession that we have - the pending recession that we have been warned about in the rising interest rates. high court hearing is trying to determine whether or not archie can be moved to a

hospital. doctors say he is too ill to be transferred in the family of said they will fight till the end to allow them to die with dignity. heather wilkinson is more. they have one final wish for archie to be moved from a hospital to a hospice or they can say goodbye privately hospice or they can say goodbye rivatelj , , ., hospice or they can say goodbye rivatel , , ._ ., , privately every single day of his life, i've told _ privately every single day of his life, i've told him _ privately every single day of his life, i've told him i _ privately every single day of his life, i've told him i love - privately every single day of his life, i've told him i love him. i privately every single day of his. life, i've told him i love him. i've got no regrets with archie whatsoever. every single day i tell him i love them. for whatsoever. every single day i tell him i love them.— whatsoever. every single day i tell him i love them. for that to happen, the need him i love them. for that to happen, they need the _ him i love them. for that to happen, they need the courts _ him i love them. for that to happen, they need the courts permission. - they need the courts permission. archie's family filed an application to the high court. but lawyers for nhs trust parentheses hospital where archie is being treated say any application to try to transfer the 12—year—old would be opposed. the trust believes that archie's

condition is unstable and moving him even a short distance would create significant risks. archie expander, since he has been, they see his brainstem dead and there's no hope of recovery. the hospital since he's got archie's best interest at the forefront of his care. ten judges agreed that his treatment should be withdrawn. yesterday, the european court of human rights refused to intervene in the case after an application by archie's parents. this is not the first high—profile case were doctors and families have disagreed. case were doctors and families have disaareed. ~ ., ., , ., ., disagreed. woman understand that in the famil , disagreed. woman understand that in the family. they _ disagreed. woman understand that in the family, they don't _ disagreed. woman understand that in the family, they don't want _ disagreed. woman understand that in the family, they don't want to - disagreed. woman understand that in the family, they don't want to lose i the family, they don't want to lose their boy — the family, they don't want to lose their boy i— the family, they don't want to lose their boy. i think sadly, that happens _ their boy. i think sadly, that happens however those kinds of disconnects or disputes are rare.

they— disconnects or disputes are rare. they now— disconnects or disputes are rare. they now face another wait to find out if they will be able to move their son to a hospice where they can say goodbye. much of europe is in the grip of another heatwave and this time, there is worry of potential drought. record low rainfall and parts of england are now facing a hosepipe ban. there is such a low level now, fishermen are able to wait out the river barely covering the wrinkles. this is a dramatic impact. —— their

ankles. whizzing record levels of trout and as to say we've never seen the ground is dry as it is at the moment. 0verthe the ground is dry as it is at the moment. over the coming days, there's not a lot of rain expected and so, there is no end in sight to this trout. so, how bad is it cotton? according to meteorologists, in the month ofjuly, france only saw 9.7 mm of rainfall. in this part of northern france, not far from dunkirk, water shortages aren't usually a problem.

but even here, the yser river is below its usual level. the local authorities have placed the area under a drought crisis alert for the first time, pointing the finger of blame in one direction. translation: the effects of drought are a direct - consequence of global warming, which is only intensifying. we hear about it, we see the physical effects on the ground. it's undoubtedly one of the effects of global warming, which is accelerating and intensifying. lack of water has all sorts of consequences. this is denis bollengier, a local farmer whose potato crop is in serious danger. translation: if it doesn't rain - between now and the 15th of august, meaning in 10—12 days, we can easily lose up to 50% of our crop. it's notjust france facing a potential drought. this was the river ver in southern england, which has now run completely dry. water companies have already imposed hosepipe bans on customers in several counties and london could be next. unless rain arrives soon, the impact of the potential drought will only become more severe. tim allman, bbc news.

australia for victims of the property insurance, the future is uncertain. the counsellors told the bbc that some flood prone areas may have to be abandoned because the risks are just too high. reporting from sydney. so this whole back area and the bottom level was submerged in water and basically everything that was downstairs was destroyed. murky brown floodwaters have invaded this woman's property three times this year. her home isn't insured because the premiums are too expensive and cover is hard to find.

i don't have flood insurance, and you would be very hard—pressed to find any company that will cover you in a flood zone, even in a one in 100 yearflood zone because you're very high—risk. it is very unsettling and it is hard to start over because you are like, is it worth fixing, is it worth replacing things? if i sell my house, can i sell my house? there is a lot of uncertainty. it is estimated that one in ten australian homes are now vulnerable to flooding. some might have to be abandoned. there is a case already that there are areas where insurance is simply unaffordable because of the flood factor. we could take a more extreme view and that is start drawing lines around areas that we know are going to be flood—prone, and there is simply no engineering solution. and at that point step in and offer those people the opportunity to sell their homes to government and move to other areas.

thousands of people were forced to leave their homes in record—breaking floods that swamped parts of eastern australia. here in windsor, the bridge, which is a main thoroughfare, was completely submerged. the waters have obviously receded but what they have left behind is financial pain that many residents will be feeling for years. this man is working to revive his famous floating restaurant on the hawkesbury river near sydney. financially it has been an absolute disaster. as it stands, due to the floods, i haven't operated since february 2021. probably over $1 million i've lost, three majorfloods, two lots of covid shutdowns and bushfires, and with very little assistance at all. australia is a land well used to nature's extremes, but for many, back—to—back disasters are testing their resilience like never before.

it but some of the worst floods there in recent years. more than 500 people have been killed in severe flooding and landslides in pakistan began injune. thousands are being displaced and the government has promised round—the—clock help with communities but has been criticised for being slow to bring aid to the worst affected areas. the taliban in afghanistan say they've had no information about the al-qaeda leader entering or living in the country. the announcement comes days afterjoe it has taken the taliban more than two days to issue any kind of formal response to president biden's announcement that the leader of al-qaeda was killed in a general

strike here in kabul. even now that the taliban are claiming to have no knowledge of ayman al—zawahiri's presence here. it was in the heart of kabul and it's been linked in a number of reports to the taliban's interior minister and an american official alleged that some of his men went to the building after the attack to try to cover up evidence of ayman al—zawahiri's death. in the statement, the taliban say their intelligence services have been instructed to investigate this and condemn america for what they say was violating international principles by watching the strong strike in their warning us a possible consequences if they take such actions again in the future but really overall, the taliban responses been pretty muted and i think that's because the taliban

find this episode pretty embarrassing. up until nonpublic, they have been claiming that al-qaeda is simply no longer exists in afghanistan any more. now it's leader has been killed here and not just in some remote border region but right in the centre of the capital city. 0ne but right in the centre of the capital city. one final point to note and that is is part of the deal paving the way for american troops to withdraw from afghanistan last august, the taliban promise not to allow militants to use afghan soil as a base from which to plot attacks abroad. they never explicitly agreed to stop having foreign militants there completely and once again, we have the taliban insisting that no threat to the west is posed by anyone here. i think for the west, those assurances care very little weight especially in the light of ayman al—zawahiri's killing. a series of earthquakes in an uninhabited valley in the capital,

kyle reports. in the land of fire and ice, another powerful force of mother nature is on display, attracting tourists from all over the world. the volcano erupted on wednesday, itokm east of the capital of reykjavik, just eight months after its last eruption officially ended. the site is close to mount fagradalsfjall, a volcano that threw out magma for six months in 2021. no one lives in the valley, but since the eruption began, more than 1500 curious onlookers have visited the site. we were trekking down here and i was, like, i have to stop, stop, let's sit down and i had a little cry because it's so beautiful and so emotional and this is, like, the raw power of our planet. but there is a danger to visiting sites such as this. when exposed, gases from a volcanic eruption, especially sulphur dioxide, may pose a danger to health, and officials have urged people to avoid the site until a danger assessment has been conducted.

today, the icelandic government issued an alert advising that young children should not walk up to the eruption site. it is not known how long it will be until this latest eruption subsides. the finding from an online project called birds and debris. birds nesting and entangled in rubbish. scientists collecting and studying the images same birds on every continent are living in her letter. 0ur science correspondent reports. a grin but familiar sight in many areas. ,, ., —— seven or eight different plastics here. -- seven or eight different plastics here. ., , , , here. living within our rubbish. these images _ here. living within our rubbish. these images with _ here. living within our rubbish. these images with members i here. living within our rubbish.

these images with members of here. living within our rubbish. - these images with members of the publicly to buy scientists show the global extent of the problem. scientists ask people to upload photographs of reports of birds and tangled nesting in rubbish. tt was tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bi aer tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than _ tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than any — tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than any of _ tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than any of us _ tangled nesting in rubbish. it was bigger than any of us had - tangled nesting in rubbish. tit ms bigger than any of us had imagined. more than 400 reports from every continent except antarctica. more recentl , continent except antarctica. more recently. many — continent except antarctica. more recently, many of _ continent except antarctica. more recently, many of these _ continent except antarctica. more recently, many of these photos i recently, many of these photos featured pandemic related weights. 20% involves ppe in some way. almost all of his masks. t5 2096 involves ppe in some way. almost all of his masks-— all of his masks. is the more of an environmental _ all of his masks. is the more of an environmental problem _ all of his masks. is the more of an environmental problem plastic- all of his masks. is the more of an | environmental problem plastic bag all of his masks. is the more of an i environmental problem plastic bag or plastic bucket. tt environmental problem plastic bag or plastic bucket-— plastic bucket. it not “ust one thin. plastic bucket. it not “ust one thing. you * plastic bucket. it not “ust one thing. you have i plastic bucket. it not “ust one thing. you have the i plastic bucket. it notjust one thing. you have the ear- plastic bucket. it notjust onej thing. you have the ear loops plastic bucket. it notjust one i thing. you have the ear loops which are made of elastic, you have the ear literature made of elastic, you cheating on them, rigid piece of flexible plastic that fits over your nose you have a whole bunch of ways that can seemingly interact with this. th that can seemingly interact with this. ,., that can seemingly interact with this. , ., . ., , ,

that can seemingly interact with this. , ~ that can seemingly interact with this. , ,, , that can seemingly interact with this. , ,, this. in some cases like this one, they have — this. in some cases like this one, they have been _ this. in some cases like this one, they have been able _ this. in some cases like this one, they have been able to _ this. in some cases like this one, | they have been able to intervene. perfect, well done. for they have been able to intervene. perfect, well done.— they have been able to intervene. perfect, well done. for this pro'ect sews the surgeon i perfect, well done. for this pro'ect sews the surgeon pandemic i perfect, well done. for this project sews the surgeon pandemic waste | perfect, well done. for this project i sews the surgeon pandemic waste that is ended up in the environment. the facemasks were important in protecting human beings against the pandemic— protecting human beings against the pandemic but if we do not dispose of these _ pandemic but if we do not dispose of these properly, they can have a much more _ these properly, they can have a much more sinister— these properly, they can have a much more sinister afterlife and unfortunately, they can be the difference between life and death for so _ difference between life and death for so many animals that we live around the — for so many animals that we live around the world. the for so many animals that we live around the world.— for so many animals that we live around the world. the systems we have for managing _ around the world. the systems we have for managing this _ around the world. the systems we have for managing this waste i around the world. the systems we have for managing this waste is i have for managing this waste is failing. and it's wildlife and wild spaces are bearing the consequences. chris is on the very latest weather for us. hello there. hosepipe bans are starting to come into force over the next few days. for hampshire and the isle of wight, we've got a ban

coming in place for friday. then, across south east england next week and the week after that, parts of southern wales hit by one as well. it's all because we've not seen so much in the way of rain over the course of this year. so far, only two thirds of the amount of rain we'd normally see has fallen across parts of england. not quite as dry as 1976, but not too far behind, and there is no rain in the forecast across those very driest areas — not just for the next five days, but next week looks completely dry as well. now, on thursday, we had some fine spells of sunshine across england and wales, but for scotland and northern ireland, a few passing showers — one of these captured there in the highlands — and there'll be more showers to come overnight across scotland, northern ireland and a few for the northwest of england and wales. one or two heavy one mixed in as well, but further southwards, southern wales, the midlands, east anglia, southern england, it's dry. a comfortable night's sleep for all of you, temperatures 8—14 degrees. we get off to a fresh start to the day on friday. lots of sunshine across the whole of the country, but again, there will be a few passing showers for scotland, northern ireland, the northwest of england and wales,

but for the south, it's dry again with no showers in the forecast. temperatures very similar to those of thursday. high teens across northern areas, the warmest spots about 24—25 across eastern areas of england. and it means, again, we've got more fine weather for the commonwealth games. the athletics, perfect conditions — 20 degrees and light winds, lots of sunshine. as we head into the weekend, there will be some thicker cloud just working into the northwest of scotland, bringing a little bit of rain here, but further southwards, again, it's the same old story of dry conditions, lots of sunshine and just starting to creep up a little bit. 18 for belfast, 23 for cardiff and 26 in london. now, looking at the weather patterns through the second half of the weekend and into next week, we get this area of high pressure becoming much more dominant. that means the winds will be later and with lots of sunshine around, we'll see those temperatures start to build day by day.

so, a very warm or even hot spell of weather with temperatures across the warmest spots of england peaking back into the 30s, but getting warmer as well for scotland and northern ireland with a lot of dry weather and sunshine for next week. that's your forecast.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. a uk recession lasting until the end of next year — the grim forecast today from the bank of england. with inflation set to hit i3%, the bank has just annonced the steepest rise in interest rates for 27 years. china fires missiles across taiwan and into japanese territory, as it continues the build—up of military exercises. and a russian court has given the us basketballer player brittney griner a nine—year sentence for carrying cannabis oil through airport security. tonight with the context, former conservative cabinet secretary justine greening, and the long—time capitol hill correspondent and now washington post live anchor, leigh ann caldwell.