tonight at ten... in its bleakest assessment of the economy so far, the bank of england says a recession is coming which could last for over a year. and it has another warning — soaring domestic energy prices will see inflation rising to around 13%. it's really, really hard at the moment because the rent has gone up, all the bills have gone up. it's really difficult. and all the food prices, the fuel prices. many mortgage holders will be hit by the bank now raising interest rates by 0.5% in an effort

to counteract rising prices. if we don't act inflation will become more embedded, it will get worse and we'll have to raise interest rates by more and we have to act to stop we'll be asking just how badly this is going to hit us, and what the two people vying might do to help. also on the programme... china releases images of the country's launch of ballistic missiles into waters around taiwan, in response to a senior us democrat visiting the island nation yesterday. in ukraine, we have a special report from the conflict in the south — as ukrainian fighters look to regain the strategic city of kherson. brilliant from jack laugher. and at the commonwealth games, england's jack laugher wins a third successive gold in the one metre springboard final. and coming up on the bbc news channel, hinako shibuno leads the way after the first

round of the women's open at muirfield, but scotland's louise duncan is hot on her heels, just two shots behind. good evening. the bank of england has taken the unprecedented step of warning that the economy faces a prolonged period of recession, starting this year and continuing right the way through 2023. it would make it the longest downturn since the financial crisis in 2008. it's part of a deeply bleak assessment of the state and direction of the uk economy. that includes further sobering news on inflation, which is the rate at which prices rise — which the bank forecasts will rise from over 9% to more than 13% — driven by the sharp rise in energy bills. in an effort to curb those soaring prices, the bank of england raised interest rates by half a percentage point to 1.75% — which will hit

many mortgage holders. 0ur economics editor faisal islam reports. as the essentials, from fuel to food, continue to surge in price, with little sign of an end, hitting every household in the country, eventually the entire economy too will actually begin to shrink, a recession now predicted for britain. at the bank of england the governor presented the grim news with troubling charts, almost all heading in the wrong direction... gdp growth in the uk has slowed and the economy is now forecast to enter recession later this year. ..alongside the announcement of a bumper rise in interest rates. just explain simply to somebody at home who is facing £300 a month energy bills why their mortgage costs have to go up? if we don't act now — and i realise how difficult this is, i realise particularly for those on lower incomes, particularly those with higher borrowing costs — but if we don't act inflation will become more embedded,

it will get worse and we'll have to raise interest rates by more, and that — we have to act to stop that. so interest rates are going up, prices are inflating and the economy in general is about to pop. that's the view also seen at this small business in bangor in north wales, which manufactures environmentally friendly bubble mixture. it's crippling. interest rate rises are something that could really stop a small business like us. normally, you know, you get these rate rises to kind of temper down a booming economy... 0rgrowing. ..it�*s out of control, it's, like, house prices are going up and up and up. does that really seem what we've got right now? no, we've got the opposite, haven't we? we've got an economy that's shrinking post—pandemic, post—brexit, and now with war, with energy prices, there is crises coming at us and the economy is visibly shrinking and the cost, the purchasing power of every single person is going down.

the bank is predicting a serious recession. at the same time cost of living pressures are getting worse with the rate of inflation now set to peak at 13% at the beginning of next year and still around 10% in a year's time as average energy bills reach nearly £300 a month. so the bank today raising rates for the sixth successive time, up by the largest amount in over a quarter of a century to 1.75% and despite recession heading still higher to try to keep a lid on that inflation. 0n the streets of cardiff the overall hit to household incomes is becoming clear to all. it's a lot of stress, and financial stress is one of those hidden ones that no one wants to talk about. the prices are so high now that i've had to start cutting back. so if they do keep going up, we're going to see a lot more, you know, homelessness, we're going to see a lot more people applying for benefits.

0ur savings have been eroded. it'sjust not good. none of it's good. we just have to see exactly how the government goes when we get the new prime minister coming in, and what they do. back at the bank, governor bailey knows who he blames for all this. we've been hit by a very severe shock, and that shock is coming through energy prices. i'm afraid we've got to be blunt about this, it's coming from the actions of russia. i'm afraid, as you say, yes, we are forecasting a recession now. you are blaming russia for that, but economic policy is set here. what i would say to that is that our concern is to ensure that this very big shock, that's going to hit people this winter, doesn't then get embedded into the system. that's the real concern we have. the big decision today was to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. but the big surprise were the forecasts showing notjust inflation rising above 13%, but at the same time, that there will be a recession lasting longer than a year. that wouldn't just upend the household finances of millions of ordinary families,

it could also wreck the public finances, changing the borrowing numbers that have formed the basis of the debate over who becomes britain's next prime minister. right now, there are few good options, and a sense for households, for the bank of england, and for the government too, that we aren't fully in control of rampant inflation and its impact

on the economy. faisal islam, bbc news. let's go to westminster now and our political correspondent alex forsyth. it's still a month until one of the conservative leadership contenders takes over, so how is the government responding right now? the existing windfall tax to see if more money can go to help people with their bills but the truth is that the person who will get the

keys to number ten in a few weeks' time that will have to grapple with the economic crisis in this country is facing and whoever that is is going to have to turn their promises into policies pretty quickly and it's almost inevitable right now that they'll be under pressure to do a lot more than what's already on offer. �* ., , , a lot more than what's already on offer. �* ., _ ., , ., as we've been hearing, the bank of england also warned that the typical energy bill will be £3,500 in october. the prediction comes as the energy regulator 0fgem announced that changes to the energy price cap will be made every three months, rather than every six months, as it is currently. our business correspondent emma simpson is here to explain what's behind the move. emma. reeta, thanks. well, let's remind you what the energy price cap is. it was first brought in three and a half years ago, and applies in england, scotland and wales. it sets a limit on how much energy suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity you use on the standard variable rate, which most of us are now on. but it's not a cap on how much your bill is. if you use more energy, you'll pay more. it's now going to be

reviewed every three months. 0fgem says doing it twice a year is no longer sustainable, given the dramatic changes in the global cost of energy that suppliers need to buy. we've got to make sure the pricing regulation adapts to this market, because if it doesn't do so, we'll face higher prices for longer, and equally we may well see more supplier failures, which ultimately comes back on the same customers and ends up with all of us paying more. so we've got to strike a balance here. if we look at this chart you can see what this may mean for our bills. it starts with october last year. this was the typical annual household bill for gas and electricity. it nearly doubled in april. the bank of england expects the price cap to go to £3,500 by october. analysts are predicting even higher bills forjanuary, when the cap changes again. fuel poverty campaigners say the regulator should've stuck to the current system a bit longer.

the decision is essentially inhumane. it's going to come at the worst possible time for families, after they've been through three months of really difficult conditions in the winter, making sacrifices, making the decision between heating or eating. they are then going to be hit with another rise in energy bills injanuary. 0fgem says it had extremely difficult trade—offs to make. it's urging customers struggling with bills to contact their supplier, as they are duty—bound to help you with an affordable payment plan. the government is knocking £400 off people's energy bills, part of a huge support package. but the pressure's now on for the new prime minister to do more. reeta. emma with her assessment. and our economics editor faisal islam joins me now. several strands of really serious news. just how bad is it?- several strands of really serious news. just how bad is it? yes, it's re news. just how bad is it? yes, it's pretty rare — news. just how bad is it? yes, it's pretty rare for _ news. just how bad is it? yes, it's pretty rare for the _ news. just how bad is it? yes, it's pretty rare for the bank _ news. just how bad is it? yes, it's pretty rare for the bank of - news. just how bad is it? yes, it's| pretty rare for the bank of england to pre—emptively predict a recession in years gone by bank of england

governors have been reluctant to say the word recession, but today, andrew bailey and his team predicted a full fat recession lasting 15 months. similar in length to the great financial crisis, the last recession. not as deep as the period when we nearly lost half the banking system. more similar to 1990 style recession. the difference being you have this recession at the same time as inflation reaching 12 or i3%, at exactly the same time, and that is deeply problematic for policymakers because some of the tools that you would use typically when you get a recession, well, they can't use them. they say they won't use them, because they would exacerbate the

inflation problem. what you typically get in this situation, which the nerds call stagflation, stagnation and inflation at the same time, is a bit of what you got today, the central bank hits the inflation by raising interest rates but that means it's up to economy and avoid the recession getting too bad. the bank is effectively saying that for the government, whoever is in charge, thatjust got much bigger. 0k, for much more on this, on what a recession is and how it will affect our finances, head to bbc news 0nline, that's bbc.co.uk/news, or the bbc news app. taiwan says china has fired multiple missiles into the sea just miles from its coast — at the start of military exercises arranged by beijing in response to the controversial visit by the senior us democrat nancy pelosi. these boxed areas in red show how close to the island those drills are being carried out. taiwan says it means ships and planes are prevented from using the space, violating its sovereignty and amounting to a blockade. taiwan is self—governing and regards itself as independent,

but beijing sees it as a breakaway province that will eventually be brought back under its control. this report from taipei is from our correspondent rupert wingfield—hayes. it began with this barrage of rockets streaking into the sky from the southeast coast of china. it's thought these came down somewhere in the middle of the taiwan strait. but this was just the prelude. further inland, rocket forces were preparing to launch these much bigger and much more capable ballistic missiles. in all, china is thought to have fired ii of these missiles into waters around taiwan. japan says several of them also fell inside its exclusive economic zone. in taipei, president tsai ing—wen addressed the nation, urging calm and calling on china to end its irresponsible acts. "i want to emphasise — we will not escalate this conflict," she says. "but we will firmly protect

our sovereignty and our national security. " so this is exactly what we suspected might happen. this afternoon, china fired dongfeng ballistic missiles from the coast of china across the taiwan strait, and they fell into waters in the exclusion zones just here off the north taiwan coast. now, the primary objective is obviously intimidation, but these tests also bring tremendous disruption to taiwan's shipping industry, to its airline industry, and to its large and important fishing fleets. 0n the dockside, we found these rather glum fishermen fixing their nets. they can't go fishing, and no fish means no income. this captain told me he tried to put to sea, only to be ordered back by the coastguard. "we don't know where these exclusion zones are," he told me. "so we had no choice but to do what the coastguard tells us." taiwan's defence ministry has described these missile tests as an attempt to blockade the island. but this retired navy captain

told me what china is really doing is an elaborate performance. "what china is engaged in is psychological warfare," he says. "all the missiles being fired, all the explosions, it's to show china's domestic audience how tough beijing is being, while at the same time intimidating the people of taiwan." it is nevertheless an impressive show and illustrates just how far china's military has come in the last two decades. and it's not over yet. captain liu says china's next step could be to fire a missile over the top of taiwan — something it has never attempted to do before. rupert wingfield—hayes, bbc news, in taipei. 0ur north america correspondent john sudworth is in washington. now that these military exercises have begun, how anxious is the administration there?— have begun, how anxious is the administration there? well, over the ast few administration there? well, over the past few days, the _

administration there? well, over the past few days, the us _ administration there? well, over the past few days, the us has _ administration there? well, over the past few days, the us has been - past few days, the us has been taking a pretty cautious line, stressing that is now changing its policy or position on taiwan, downplaying china's likely response, saying it now is the kind of things it is going to do, and urging calm. but now those exercises have begun, reeta, we can identify a note of increasing concern creeping in. very aggressive is how chinese actions were described at the white house press briefing today, those missiles fired into the waters, including speculation from military injapan that some of them may have flown directly over the island of taiwan, which would mark a significant escalation. the fearfor which would mark a significant escalation. the fear for washington is that this is notjust a protest from china over the pelosi visit but has a purpose, to change the status quo, to usher in an era in which we see much more of this very aggressive action, of the kind we saw in rupert's report, right up close to the island of taiwan. as if to prove how worried they are in washington, the white house also confirmed it has cancelled one of its own intercontinental ballistic

missile tests this week. that may be seen as a scene of weakness by some of its critics, but the justification, they say, is that given the sensitivities, there is a risk that china may have seen that test as something entirely different. test as something entirely different-— test as something entirely different. , ., . ~' , ., g ., different. john, thank you. john sudworth reporting. _ to the war in ukraine, and for months now much of the focus has been in the eastern donbas region. but both ukraine and russia now appear to be gearing up for an escalating conflict in the south. ukraine is looking to take back the strategic city of kherson, before its russian occupiers hold a possible referendum on its status next month. 0ur correspondent andrew harding has been to the front line just west of kherson and sent this report. an exposed road near the front line. ukrainian trenches to one side, then the carcass like ruins of a newly liberated village. it's like stepping back a century into the desolation of world war i.

a world of underground bunkers and unpredictable skies. this village is eerily empty, only the dogs here and the soldiers. we're having to be very careful about what we film here, so we don't give away ant ukrainian positions, they're very wary about their security after months under pretty much constant russian bombardment, russian drones overhead as well. but here, near the black sea coast, ukraine is starting to claw back territory and to gear up for a much bigger push. a weary smile from a soldier named phoenix. his unit has taken heavy losses here. "we don't underestimate the russians," he says, "but the enemy is struggling with supplies and reinforcements now." "yes, we can feel that." ukraine is certainly making lots of noise about an imminent counter—offensive in the south —

videos like this one trumpeting the destruction of russian supply lines. and just across the front lines in the strategic russian—occupied city of kherson, anticipation is growing. we spoke to this ukrainian journalist who's hiding in kherson and hoping the city will soon fall. "we're happy," says konstantin ryzhenko, "when we hear the ukrainian bombs exploding closer, because that means our troops are getting nearer to us." perhaps they are. but remember, this is a vast front line, and both sides are trying to trick each other about their real military intentions. no wonder ukraine's soldiers play down talk of a quick victory. "we know the russians are bringing

more reinforcements to this area," says sergey belinsky. "on our side, we do now have accurate western weapons, but nowhere near enough. " that phrase has become ukraine's lament — not enough weapons. and so for now, the russian bombs keep falling in the south on the front lines and on cities like mykolaiv. ukraine is promising a decisive counterattack, but it's not there yet. andrew harding, bbc news in southern ukraine. meanwhile in moscow, an american basketball player has been jailed for nine years in russia for drugs offences. brittney griner was detained with vape cartridges containing cannabis oil. let's speak to our russia editor steve rosenberg in moscow. there has been international

condemnation over this sentence. yes, and that is loudest in america, where britney greiner is a big star. president biden said the sentence was unacceptable and that should be released immediately, which brings me onto the question, we'll rush it really so? after all, we know that russia and america have been talking about a potential prisoner swap that will include britney greiner, it could also include paul whelan, the former us marine who was also in prison in russia. in some reports suggest that, in return, america might release a notorious russian arms trafficker from an american jail. now, that would be controversial, because he was allegedly one of the most prolific arms dealers in the world, he was known as the merchant of death, rumoured to have links to russian intelligence agencies, although he has denied it. but this was a man that the kremlin has wanted to get back to russia for a long, long time, and if the russian authorities managed to get him back, you can be

sure the kremlin will try to present that as a major success, a major win for the kremlin. that as a major success, a ma'or win for the kremlin.fi for the kremlin. steve rosenberg re-uortin for the kremlin. steve rosenberg reporting from — for the kremlin. steve rosenberg reporting from moscow. - the bbc should have further explored issues that were being raised that's the finding of the bbc�*s independent director, sir nicholas serota, following an internal review into allegations of sexual misconduct. the veteran dj left the bbc in 2013. the bbc is in contact with the metropolitan police and have said they will pass on any relevant information. 0ur correspondent chi chi izundu has been investigating the story and has this report. 19 years at the bbc — at one point commanding more than 700,000 listeners to his weekly radio 1 rap show and once described as one of the most influential people in hip—hop in europe. now tim westwood's time at the corporation, and what the bbc knew

about his conduct, is to be investigated independently. it follows allegations made by 17 women who, as part of an earlierjoint investigation by bbc news and the guardian, made accusations against the 64—year—old, ranging from sexual misconduct to sex with a 1a—year—old, over three decades. when questioned after the first documentary was broadcast back in april, the bbc�*s director—general, tim davie, said... i've seen no evidence of complaints. i've seen no evidence, i've seen no evidence of complaint... i've asked, and we looked at our records, and we've seen no evidence. today the bbc revealed it did have several complaints against tim westwood, including one in 2012 where the dj was accused of making inappropriate sexual comments to a 15—year—old girl. that was referred to police, but officers later decided to take no further action. the bbc says it wants anyone with any evidence to come forward,

and it's inviting other employers of tim westwood to join this external investigation. so we know that he worked at capital radio, and we also know that he worked at mtv, for example. separately, mtv has said although it's never had any complaints, it has started its own internal investigation. the metropolitan police has confirmed it's currently investigating a man over four reports of previous sexual offences. the bbc says it's also in contact with police. today's review was led by the bbc�*s independent director, nick serota, who said, "in light of the bbc�*s internal review, i believe that there may have been occasions in the past when the bbc should have further explored issues that were being raised." this is the 18th woman to have come forward. she says she wanted work experience at bbc radio 1xtra and met tim westwood back in 2011 to discuss it. i didn't know what was happening, i didn't know.

different things going through my head. "have i given this man the wrong impression?" "what on earth is happening?" from that, it quickly turned into sexual intercourse. no words, just moving me into a position, and me thinking, "oh, my god, what the hell do i do?" and him proceeding to do whatever he wanted to do. we put this latest allegation and today's report to tim westwood for comment, but he didn't respond. despite today's review, questions will still remain over what complaints the bbc had and what they did about them. chi chi izundu, bbc news. if you've been affected by any of the issues raised in this story, information and support are available on the bbc action line website, or you can call free of charge at any time to hear recorded information on 0800 077 077. 15 gold medals were up for grabs today at the commonwealth games in birmingham, and england's jack laugher

took home his third successive commonwealth gold in the 1m springboard diving final. natalie pirks has been watching all the action. the breakneck pace of the last few days gave way to a more sedate day at the games. time to focus, and time for england to feel bullish about their chances of high—fiving at the diving. injune, jack laugher won three medals, the most of any british diver at a single world championships. today, his final dive in the 1m springboard final blew everyone out of the water. commentator: brilliant from jack laugher, - absolutely world—class. elated compatriotjordan houlden picked up a brilliant bronze, behind australia's li shixin. well, that's a third consecutive commonwealth title forjack laugher, fresh from his success, a hat—trick of medals at the world championships. this one was special. mental health and mental well—being

has been extremely important for me. i've really struggled with it through the years but i feel like i've overcome quite a lot. commentator: big, deep breath from england's andrea _ spendolini—sirieix. the commonwealth games 10m platform final was a huge leap into the unknown. commentator: unbelievable, what a dive to finish on. - but atjust 17, she looked as though she'd always been on this stage. really happy with how it went. it's crazy! silverfor lois toulson made it four medals for england, but as andrea's dad — first dates star fred — looked on, it was clear gold was the perfect match. can you imagine, it's the commonwealth games and my daughter gets gold. you can't get better than this, can you? 0h, almost held it. a bust up with a barrier ended wales' geraint thomas's hopes in the time trial. he still managed bronze though behind england's fred wright, with silver. it's a great lift. england's zoe newson thought she'd

have to give up para powerlifting when she fell pregnant after winning bronze at the last games. today, she upgraded to gold. english team—mate 0livia broome made it a day to remember, with silver. in the blue corner! a memorable games too for northern irish athlete's reigning world champion amy broadhurst�*s quarterfinal success means they are guaranteed seven boxing medals, a minimum of 15 overall to equal their all—time commonwealth record. northern ireland proving they are no lightweights in brum. natalie pirks, bbc news, birmingham. time for a look at the weather with tomasz. it has been so dry recently, any prospect of rain? no, the rainfall keeps failing to reach southern and central parts of the uk, and what does arrive is hit and miss showers, so i'm afraid we

are getting a little desperate now across the south, absolutely no prospect of widespread rain for the foreseeable future. so dry for many of us across the uk, just a few scattered showers here and there. this is the rainfall over the next few days, so the darker blue is where we will see more rain. northern and western scotland, some rain in the north—west, northern ireland, but some areas literally bone dry, not a drop of rain. and the reason for this is we have northwesterly breezes which bring in showers, they are only hit and miss, the winds are light, they don't push in showers further south, and it just stays dry, particularly across southern parts of the uk. that is the same weather pattern for tomorrow, it is not changing, so the north—westerly wind, some of the showers across scotland, getting to eastern parts of northern england, may one or two in hull, but very hit and miss. in