hello this is bbc news. i'm lewis vaughanjones and these are the headlines... air—raid sirens sound injerusalem for the first time since the start of last year's full—scale conflict between israel and palestinian militants in the gaza strip. it's the third day of renewed

violence between the two sides. nearly 170,000 tonnes of grain and sunflower oil leaves on a second convoy of ships out of ukaine after russia's blockade caused global shortages. in the uk, liz truss promises a cut in national insurance, within weeks, if she wins the conservative party leadership race. her rival rishi sunak disagrees and says he wants to give more direct help to those hardest hit by inflation. taiwan accuses china of practising for an invasion of its island after beijing expressed fury over us house speaker, nancy pelosi's visit to taipei. now on bbc news dateline london with shaun ley.

hello, and welcome to the programme in which leading uk columnists discuss the week's news with foreign correspondents who write, blog, podcast, and broadcast to audiences in their home countries from the dateline: london. 18 months after margaret thatcher first became prime minister, underfire even in her own party as half a million more people lost theirjobs and facing calls for a policy u—turn, she delivered a speech that still defines her, "you turn if you want to, the lady's not for turning". this week, the woman who would be her successor u—turned. america's third lady, nancy pelosi, did not, going ahead with a visit to taiwan, despite chinese warnings, beforehand and missiles after. nor did the bank of england u—turn, going ahead with the half—point rise in interest rates. the governor had said the bank was minded to impose the largest

single hike in a quarter of a century. here to discuss all that are marc roche, an economist and journalist who was born in belgium, and writes from here for the french news magazine, le point. isabel hilton, who's been a foreign correspondent and broadcaster, she founded china dialogue, an independent organisation concerned with the environmental challenges facing that country. and with us in spirit, if not in person, because a family member has covid, yasmin alibhai—brown. she was forced to flee her native uganda by idi amin, the 50th amnniversary of the expulsion of asian ugandans has been marked this week. yasmin is now a british newspaper columnist. welcome, all of you, yasmin, it's lovely to see you and i hope yourfamily member gets better. let's begin with china and the nancy pelosi visit. i'd say she's the third lady becausejill biden is the first lady and, harris is the second lady. nancy pelosi is next in line and an important figure. she is.

why this display of anger by china, which to many outside the region will see extraordinarily like an overreaction, firing missiles left, right and centre? some useful things about this display of anger, for xijinping, it's in advance of the party congress coming up, he is consolidating his position for a third term in office, and who knows what after that? it demonstrates to his home front that he is defending china's interests in a highly nationalist atmosphere that he's done a lot to create. so if you create a nationalist atmosphere, you have to live up to it. if you define the us as your principal enemy, then you have to respond when something like this happens. and finally, if you want to intimidate the taiwanese, putting effectively a military blockade around the island and constantly probing into the airspace and provoking their defenders to have to respond, you test the defences, intimidate the population, and you look like

the big man in town. nancy pelosi could be described as possibly on the way out, she could be speaker of the house for only a few months more if the midterms predictions are worth anything at this stage. therefore, it seems a particularly dramatic response, yet she was advised, as we are told, by some in the biden administration not to go. was it a misjudgment? i completely agree with what isabel has said, but one question does remain, the world is in such a precarious state at the moment, why would you, nancy pelosi, whom i've always admired greatly, the state department advised her not to do this. what was the point, what was the purpose? and particularly she's known as someone beijing actively dislikes, because she turned up

at tiananmen square not long after the massacre. indeed, holding up a banner. commemorating the dead. i have a lot of time for nancy pelosi, but it looks like she wanted a big finale to her career. she won't be speaker after the midterms. she went on an asian tour, it's not actually clear that the taiwanese invited her, but they could hardly say no to her coming, and it's not at all clear what they got out of this except for a lot of high tension from china. so i think it was sadly a political misjudgment on her part. everyone gets an unwelcome guest every once in a while, you have to grin and bear it. yes, absolutely. but it's a fantastic opportunity

for xi jinping to forget - about economic problems in the eyes of the chinese people _ by using this nationalistic, militaristic attitude. - because china is on the brink. of a recession, because of covid restrictions and their obsession about confinement. _ but also, the loomingl recession in the west, which is the principal client of chinese goods. - and so by doing that, he can avoid really focusing on the economy. i i don't think china will go further than the sabre—rattling because, you know, the west, i think, - has alarmed them with the sanctions, and the sanctions on russia did work, do work, it is crippling i the russian economy. i don't think china wants that. so i think it will finish... what's worrying is that forever there might be a blockade, - and isabel can correct me...

i'm not sure there will be a blockade forever, but they did declare before pelosi's visit that they no longer considered the straits international waters. now, those are very important international waters, a great deal of shipping goes through them. and if china sticks to that, that will inconvenience the entire neighbourhood and international shipping, as well as taiwan. so there is a risk that things get ratcheted up and certain things are not retreated from. the other great casualty of this, however, which i think is more serious, is they announced today they will no longer cooperate on climate change with the united states. this was one of the big announcements at the glasgow summit, out of the blue almost, president xi wasn't there, the americans announced they had this agreement. it was with the chinese john kerry equivalent, and john kerry, the envoy, it was the only bit of momentum at cop26, because so many things

have happened since then, the war and so on, that all those things have been put off, and it's looking very serious. we have until 2030 to bend the curve on emissions. when the us and china worked together, which was in the 0bama and xijinping era, they essentially got paris, that's how we got paris because they weren't fighting each other, and they were mobilising their respective allies and friends. the paris climate agreement. precisely, but now we need to ratchet up the ambition and we need them working together on this. this is the great dilemma anyway, american policymakers are working to wrestle with it and it's a terrible time to wrestle with something like this, what sort of relationship can you have with china, from the washington perspective,

even other parts of the west, neighbours like australia? i think they have to be very, very careful. i've often said that china's politics, not only across its neighbourhood, but across africa, south asia, there's a lot going on there that should worry us. but at the same time, i'm sorry, but for 25 years or longer, everywhere the united states has gone in as the saviour, it has left the place in total devastation. think of afghanistan, libya, so the idea that the us is the good player in this, i agree with isabel, we are in such a bad place with climate change, this is not the time to start playground fights. we have to cooperate, the whole world, if we are going to save the planet.

and ijust don't understand this visit, the rhetoric, i don't understand china's war games when the world is in such a crisis, i really don't. it raises an interesting question about the status of taiwan, in terms of how it is treated. i'll get isabel to give us context in terms of the history, but there are lots of people pussyfooting around whether taiwan is a country, can we offend beijing by describing it as a country, all the rest of it, and that's one of the added complications here, isn't it? yes, absolutely. but there's this far bigger picture too, and taiwan is actually flourishing, for a while, and after what happened to hong kong, i would not underestimate the fear they feel. that's interesting what you said about hong kong, because you could argue that one thing that has

changed, and which mightjustify america taking a more combative approach over taiwan, is what china has done in hong kong, its change of approach. i was talking to victor gao this week who is saying it's just a continuity, there's always been a national security law, it clearly wasn't like the national security law, and you can criticise the british for lots of things, there was clearly no democracy in hong kong before the handover, they were heading towards some elective process but it hadn't really been on the agenda. but it clearly wasn't the hong kong under the british, and what china is now doing, it's not even what china was doing ten years ago. that has changed the calculation. completely, because no—one believed china and what they would do - to taiwan if they occupied, | first the taiwanese military is quite strong, it has very. advanced military equipment

from the us. and also, the latest war waged i by china in 1979 against vietnam was a resounding defeat. we are not sure of the preparedness and how good they are. _ but hong kong is a real warning that china is an authoritarian _ regime, if we forget it. 0n the whole, the americans, the official admitted _ democrat american administration, as isabel said, pelosi— imposed it herself. so i don't think we are heading. really for a clash between america and china directly. it's more an event in a difficult situation. i taiwan is the part of china where the nationalists fought against the communists in 1949, but what is it about its status that matters so much to beijing?

they've made it matter. the story keeps changing, it wasn't really part of china until the ching dynasty, which was the 17th century. and it was only part of china then, but ching paid attention to it because of the ming resistance. so taiwan gets retreated to after the wars on the mainland. after that it became a japanese colony in the 1800s, and it was returned to china in 1945 with the defeat of japan. there was an uprising in 19117 against the chinese by the taiwanese, and a white terror, a massacre. then in 19119, the nationalists lost the war, they turned up and declared themselves the government of all china from taiwan, and were recognised by the americans until nixon went to china.

so it's been a complicated story, but when taiwan won democracy, which it did after the dictatorship of the nationalists fell, they got in the streets the way middle classes do and got a democratic system, and the taiwanese identity emerged through democratic... and not the american identity, because that's the problem, you have two big powers in dispute over this, and perhaps sometimes taiwan's voice doesn't get heard very much. you should point out that mao told edgar snow that he didn't regard taiwan, which he called a part of china, he thought of it much more like korea which was also a japanese colony, and it was the duty of the communist party to help liberate taiwan so he could be an independent country

along with korea. so that could be an independent country. it was not considered then by the great founder of the communist party an integral part of china, this is a much more recent phenomenon, and it's a part of a national story. if you stop being an empire, which is a much more flexible arrangement, if you like, and you try to establish a nation state, borders become much more important. so xi jinping's great gift to the chinese people, as he presents it, is to recover the lost province. thank you all very much. let's talk about the lady who did u—turn, liz truss, who came up with this idea of potentially reaching pay rates, —— regional pay rates... if you have a a job in a different part of the uk, outside of london, shouldn't you get as much as you would in london? lots of com pa ny

lots of company have london wages. they don't necessarily pay different amounts if they are national organisations in different parts of the country. the public sectors don't pay different parts of the country, she seemed attracted but then backed off of the idea of having regional pay boards. do you see any merit in that original idea? is there an economic argument where there might be some merit in that? ithere's absolutely no merit, it'si a stupid idea because the present system works very well where civil servants are paid the same - wherever you are. you are serving the state, not the region. _ it's completely different to local people. - anyway, that story which she retracted is completely - driven by the announcement - and the cataclysmic announcement —— dwarfed by the announcement... by the bank of england - about recession, about triple increase in energy bills, and about the cost of. living in general, 13%. and this is absolutely leaving no room of manoeuvre -

to liz truss and her adversary. because basically, where will there be money to, i as they want, to diminish tax? because she wants to diminish company tax, he wants to geti rid of the energy vat. but there's no money, so unless you indebt l more of the country, _ which is already 100% of gdp, then you threaten to double the rate, i which means more money to pay, the only solution, which is not very conservative, is to increase tax - and diminish public service, - public expense, which you can't do at a time of recession. so whoever wins will be in a no—win situation. . before we leave the point about regional pay, why was it so politically toxic an idea?

because this woman, liz truss, seems to be producing ideas out of a christmas cracker or, hardly thought through at all, then she spins and changes, she was a remainer, then she became a brexiteer, she believes that then she doesn't believe it any more. it's actually quite embarrassing to watch her, and i'm a feminist, and i would wish for a good woman to take over the party. but it is deeply embarrassing, she hasn't thought this thing through. and the other thing that's quite interesting is the letter in the ft today, which was fascinating because they keep referencing the global thing, out of the ten most productive countries in the world, 7—8 of them are in the eu. and when the uk was in the eu, it outshone all other countries.

so there's a connection between what is going on with this situation come up with the recession and all that, and the decision, in my view, that was badly taken. people will ask why we have two people standing for leadership not addressing those core questions. i suppose the other point is, given the government's messaging in part has been about levelling up the country, it doesn't sit well with that succulent absolutely, af there's a problem with differential payment, as there is in london, there's something called the london waging, you get an extra allowance if you have to pay more for. the idea in bolton, you can pay people less then

you can in birmingham, as mark says, they're working for the state, its preposterous. what happens when they move or get promoted? but it's also the kind of triviality of it that bothers me. this country seems to be staring over a cliff, and neither of them frankly seem to have very much to say about the very big issues. and what they do have to say, liz truss seems to be on a collision course with the bank of england, arguing it's had the wrong response. conservatives are critical of the bank anyway, saying it didn't act fast enough against inflation, it directs itself, they put up rates of half of 1%, as it warned it would do. the governor said on friday that in terms of what they had heard that they hadn't moved fast enough, he rejected that and said it's an approach to buying assets, this quantitive easing programme

which it argued helped during the credit crunch, it was not part of the problem. so there is a political conflict opening up between the woman most likely to be prime minister and the government. and her reaction has been to suggest she could curtail the bank of england, which is characteristic of this contest, every time an independent body, whether it be the bank of england or electorate commission, produces a result that is inconvenient politically for the candidates, they suggest they can abolish the very factors that made them valuable and the factors that made them trust us. it's a depressing prognosis, frankly. and to agree, brexit... i was a brexiteer, _ but i've become a remainer. it's a bit late! |the fact is that brexit is making itj difficult to take advantage of even

the devaluation of sterling, i for instance, sterling is at its weakest compared to the dollar. imports are more expensive... so we should be producing stuff ourselves? exports are now more - expensive because of brexit, because with your principles - with your commercial partner are now stacked with tariffs - and administrative jumps. —— and minister of hindrances. it's notjust the british, it's partly down to the eu, as well, it's about the partnership. the eu has done everything to ease the way for the british _ to have a good brexit, but... there'll be lots of people who take issue with that. . know. they-u say—

emmanuel macron is the worst, etc. the fact that the british didn't have their act together, - they were divided and they treated brussels, as brexiteers do, - with utter contempt. let's not relitigate that, butjust in terms of where this leaves the uk now, i was reading an article by melanie phillips, who was a long—standing conservative commentator, she was writing an article this week that she kind of despaired over the conservative party, she said, "it seems to be an argument about the size of state and tax, this leadership election, without looking at some of the bigger issues,

like a fracturing nation and pricles principles which are now being lost. the party no longer understands what conservatism really was," she writes. i'm sorry, you're asking the wrong person here to give any serious consideration to what she thinks. what about the point about the party...? the french revolution was about upholding western values, that's what burke used to say. traditional conservative view. the tory party to uphold conservative values, —— and british values... and we should say nothing but how great our history was, it's all this woke stuff that she's going on about. what's interesting is that she feels like kemi badenoch, a black woman, articulates that fake national pride better than rishi sunak or liz truss. this is quite interesting, but i can't take that point seriously at all, i'm sorry. what about the argument that there's

something about this debate that it's become too narrow? it's notjust for the conservative party, but for the public as well, since after all, this is the debate that will help determine who is prime minister? indeed, prime minister of the whole united kingdom, i must point out. i've not read the article, but it seems to me since the one nation tories were expelled by boris johnson for not supporting brexit, what we have is instead of the conservative and unionist party, we have an english national party. the remarks liz truss made about the leader of the scottish parliament today which were frankly shocking. you can'tjust accuse a serious politician of being attention—seeking. the snp has been repeatedly voted into power by the scottish people, what does that say to the scottish people? it says there's no future for us, whether liz truss�*s england,

—— with a liz truss england... they are playing fast and loose with northern ireland. very briefly. the next prime minister- is chosen by 160,000 people, completely unrepresentative of the country. _ which england is. thank you all very much, get well soon to your family, yasmin, and we will see you back in the studio. thank you. and we will see you the same time next week. goodbye. hello. it's going to get much hotter again

as we go through this week. and in fact, temperatures already building today across england and wales, especially under blue skies. a bit more cloud across scotland, northern ireland, although northern ireland will see more sunshine develop compared with this morning. western scotland, still some rain and drizzle around. eastern scotland always that bit brighter. but even here, there will be increasing amounts of cloud. but here as well, temperatures up on yesterday's values, high teens, low 20s, maybe mid to highs 20s across parts of central, southern and eastern england. into this evening and overnight, it stays dry for many. the rain just eases in western scotland, but the western isles will see more rain return later with a strengthening breeze. some rural parts could get down into single figures, but most city centres and suburbs will be around 10 to 15 degrees as we start monday morning. dry starts for most. there will be a bit more cloud through yorkshire, lincolnshire and the northeast of england compared with today. but that will break up. lots of sunshine again for england, wales, sunny day for northern ireland, southern scotland. more cloud in northern scotland with some rain at times in the highlands and the islands, and turning hotter in the south.

this is bbc news for viewers in the uk and around the world. i'm lewis vaughanjones and these are the latest headlines. air raid sirens sound injerusalem for the first time since the start of last year's full—scale conflict between israel and palestinian militants in the gaza strip. it's the third day of renewed violence between the two sides. nearly 170,000 tonnes of grain and sunflower oil leaves on a second convoy of ships out of ukaine after russia's blockade caused global shortages. in the uk, the two contenders vying to become the next conservative party leader and prime minister outline how they plan to help people cope with the rising cost of living. we'll be speaking to a supporter of the former chancellor, rishi sunak. warnings that millions of children in england could go hungry this summer because councils have reduced or scrapped