this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour, as newsday continues — straight after hardtalk. welcome to a special edition of hardtalk with me, stephen sackur. it is six months since vladimir putin ordered a multi—front military invasion of ukraine. he set in motion a war which has already taken a terrible human toll and had profound consequences for european security, big power relations, and the world economy. putin calculated

it was an aggression he could get away with. six months of interviews with key players may help you decide if he was right. in late 2021, us and uk intelligence made it clear russia was massing a major fighting force along ukraine's eastern and northern border. this didn't look like a sabre—rattling exercise. it looked like an invasion in the making. at first, the ukrainian government — led by volodymyr zelensky — downplayed it, didn't want to believe it. but by mid—january, kyiv�*s defence minister, oleksii reznikov, felt only massive pre—emptive western sanctions could stop putin launching a full—on attack.

the main message — let's show to the kremlin that you seriously understand all threats and you can make this invasion very expensive for them. and you can start with the sanctions on this moment — before, not after. if they do not, will you regard that as a betrayal? it will be very late because it will be a lot of blood in the land and it will be a lot of refugees, it will be a disaster for europe, because this war is not only east of ukraine. this war is going in east of europe, i'm seriously saying. on february the 24th, russian forces made their move. it was an ambitious, multi—pronged invasion, deploying light armour, special forces and paratroopers. the aim was to destabilise ukraine and then decapitate the zelensky government.

kyiv was in moscow's crosshairs. four days ago, we were woken up by three explosions. we live in the central part of kyiv, next to golden gate and st sophia cathedral from 12th century. so, i mean, we were shocked, but i understood immediately that the war has started. then in one hour, we had two more explosions. and i started looking out of the windows and i saw several women with dogs, walking their dogs, but no cars. and i think at this moment, actually, to me and my wife, the understanding came that this is the beginning of the things which will change our life, change life of ukraine and probably of europe also. this was the first day of war. but somehow before that, the evening before, we had a party at home and i made borscht, which is a traditional beetroot soup with beans and meat. and i invited a couple of journalists — my old friends — and an ambassador of brazil.

and i sort ofjoked that, "this is last borscht in kyiv." it turned out for now, indeed, last borsch in kyiv. my fellow ukrainians, we are under attack. putin wants to kill us. he wants to eliminate ukraine as a country, and to eliminate ukrainians as a nation. we have to survive. we will withstand. let's help each other. i strongly believe that this is the righteous war. and in this war, ukraine will win. we are fighting for the future of our families, for the future of our kids. we are fighting for our homeland. there is no other way rather than to fight like hell. but you know, mr yatsenyuk, plenty about russian military strategy.

you know what happened in aleppo, when the russians, alongside the syrians, bombarded and almost levelled a huge chunk of that syrian city. you know exactly what the russians did to grozny, and you know what the russians are doing right now to mariupol and may, in the coming days, try to do to kyiv as well. can you withstand that? what russians are doing is the... this is the... actually, they committed crimes against humanity. and that's notjust all russians. that's particularly putin, his military and those who support putin. i want to be very clear about this. this is the crimes against humanity. and putin is a war criminal. within weeks, russia's invasion plans shifted dramatically. the lightning assault on the capital kyiv and on kharkiv failed. regime change didn't happen.

instead, moscow settled on attrition, the application of overwhelming firepower to destroy towns and cities and break the will to resist. plan a failed. plan b ensured a long, bloody war. it would be naive from the west to expect that this operation could end in a week. i've heard speculation about it, and some people would say, "well, it should end quickly." i don't think so, because russian forces are very careful, so they don't hurt the civilian population. if they wanted to finish it very quickly, look, they could just, you know, smash the whole territory. but we don't do it. we do as careful as possible so the civilians don't suffer. we understand very clearly that vladimir putin expected ukrainian resistance to be minimal. he expected resistance to crumble and that his forces could rush straight to kyiv and take control

of the country. and one reason we know that is that state media in russia — for example, the ria novosti news agency — had prepared victorious articles which were published by mistake within two days of the invasion, declaring victory. that's what you thought would happen, but it didn't. well, in fact, i wouldn't speculate on this topic because we still don't know if this is true and if any russian agencies were trying and holding any news about celebrating any victory. as much as i know, as a member of russian parliament, we expected that it's going to be a pretty, well, long, timely operation, and it absolutely goes as planned. and nobody, i guess, knows what is the plan of president putin is because this is secret information that is not revealed to ordinary civilians, including the members of the parliament. right, forgive me for interrupting, miss butina, but if only president putin knows the plan and you don't

know the plan, how can you tell me that you're absolutely sure everything is going to plan? well — and this is a very smart question. well, i read a lot, and i studied political science as well as read a lot of books, classical books, books about strategy. and if you look at any military strategy, you would never expect it to be on such big territory as ukraine is, and including the goals that we expect to be achieved, such as "do not harm civilian population", so this operation goes quickly, in weeks. nobody could expect if you have any special knowledge about it. mounting evidence pointed to the brutality of the russian occupying force. the shelling of civilian areas in strategic target cities like mariupol was relentless. and as putin's forces pulled back from bucha and other towns close to kyiv, they left a bloody and incriminating trail

which the ukrainians were determined the world should see. the bucha massacre should remove any kind of hesitation and reluctance in the west to provide ukraine with all necessary weapons, including planes, tanks, multiple launch rocket systems and armoured vehicles, to defend our country and to free it from the russian occupants. and the same goes for sanctions. if any one of my colleagues from europe or across the ocean tries to tell me that some sanctions are inappropriate or are too tough and shouldn't be imposed, i will consider it as a betrayal of the victims of bucha and other towns and villages, civilians who have been killed. so, the bucha massacre is a game—changer in the way the west should

continue supporting ukraine. ukraine's extraordinary military resistance in the early days of the invasion showed leaders in the west that zelensky�*s government was durable, its fighting forces were capable and resistance would be fierce. but clearly they desperately needed supplies of western weapons to sustain their fight. that, for months, has been the question for the us and for nato — how far to go with the arming of ukraine. we speak about a country's right to defend itself, and that's what we are helping ukraine to do. and that's, in a way, obvious that we should do, because this is about the rules—based international order, where we respect the sovereignty of each and every nation and also the right of each and every nation to choose its own path, including what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. that's exactly what president putin is violating.

in the early weeks of the war, there was a great deal of talk and concern about the possibility of russia using nuclear weapons. is that something you still consider on a daily basis? or is it your analysis that, actually, a lot of that was bluff and there is no sign whatsoever that russia is contemplating the use of a nuclear weapon? russia has not changed their nuclear posture. at the same time, the nuclear rhetoric is dangerous. it's reckless and irresponsible. and russia has actually agreed, indeed, that early this year that a nuclear war should never be fought and cannot be won. and therefore, it is reckless what russia is doing just to talk about the potential use of nuclear weapons, the way they have done over the last weeks and months. our response is to strengthen our deterrence and events, including by more nato troops in the eastern part of the alliance.

tens of thousands of troops under nato command backed by ships and planes to remove any room for miscalculation or misunderstanding in moscow about nato's readiness to protect and defend all allies. we have two responsibilities. one is to support ukraine. we do, and the other is to prevent this war from escalating into a full fledged war between russia and nato. my belief is this is what putin and his cabal have brought on. i fully agree that this has become much bigger than ukraine versus russia. i think most of us in the west over the last few years, particularly here in this country, have felt, whether it's with covid, some of the political dysfunction in this country, can liberal democracy be successful against authoritarian regimes like russia or china? and i think what at least the ukrainian people have said is they are voting with their lives to say we will give up our lives, to have a taste of the kind of freedom that we in the west enjoy every day. and i think we all do need to rise to that occasion.

ithink, you know, west and not just united states and europe, i too, have to be committed to this cause. _ and i think putin is not going to stop until he's stopped. i and that's a reality. so we have to help ukrainians to stop him or it will- destabilise europe, destabilise the whole world. _ because if you think- about what they're doing in the port of odesa, i where they block a lot of grains, and if you know that food and hunger, - it's also a weapon of mass destruction is going - to destabilise middle east, south america, countries i like sri lanka, i think it'si going to be a big problem and the world is. going to be on fire. and there is only way for us to deescalate the crisis, - to help ukrainian army to hold the ground. i we can succeed only, and only if we stay united and if we have the solidarity, because it's also a political aspect. but if we give up now, what do we say? what do we say to ukrainians? we say, "we give up on you" — and we cannot do that. i mean, those guys are fighting for us. they are fighting because they are fed.

and with our support, when i speak to then denis schmihal or volodymyr zelensky, you know, when i see in their eyes their bravery, it's also because they know that they have the support of the european union. they have the vision of being part of european union. they have the vision of democratic and free country. and this is how serious this war is. the ukrainian battlefield isn't the only arena for this 2ist—century showdown between russia and the west. it is an economic struggle, too. russia is a nuclear superpower with a second—tier economy. its one overwhelming asset is energy riches. so the question for the west was and is simple — how ready are western politicians and their voters to put a chokehold on the russian economy if in doing so, they inflict an energy crisis upon themselves? so far, the unity and resolve of the west has been unprecedented, and that means

further steps need to be taken. putin cannot be deterred. he doubles down on his cause of continuing this war. and so, if he needs to be stopped, the west is to introduce a new sanctions oil embargo, oil and gas embargo in europe, or very high taxes on russian oil and gas to make sure that putin doesn't get what he's getting now, close to one billion euros per day from europe paying for oil and gas, which he can spend on his soldiers, on his propagandists and on his policemen beating up anti—war protesters in russian cities. he has this war which is going on on several fronts. on all these fronts, he needs cash. and unfortunately, without oil and gas embargo by european union, he keeps enough cash. he gets enough cash because oil prices are very high. why hasn't that oil and gas

revenue to russia been cut off?

we are dependent on russian oil 65% when it arrives, and russian gas 84%. now, that makes it clear that what is being proposed on behalf of brussels and what we've seen today on the table is very far from what we can live with and go with, not for the reasons of political taste or any kind of face like issue, but it's simply the hard, physical facts on the ground. there is no substitute. any such request, any undertaking would result in the complete ruin of hungarians' lives and the hungarian economy state. one of the hopes in the west was that the domestic costs of the war would turn the russian people and,

in particular, the russian elites against putin. but so far there's little sign of that happening. the russian economy hasn't imploded, moscow's control of the media and skilled fostering of nationalist sentiment allied to draconian punishment for dissent, means even those hit by sanctions choose to blame anyone but the kremlin. one example — the brakes were put on nikita mazepin�*s formula i career because of his father's close ties to president putin. i don't agree with being in a sanctions, and i've said previously that i intend to fight it. perhaps now is not the right time because, you know, if you look at the whole situation that that's happening against, you know, athletes and in the general case, you know, it's cancel culture against my country. so, you know, that's about the sanctions. are you seeing the pictures that are coming out of ukraine? the civilians shot dead,

some of them bound, apparently atrocities committed by russian forces before they left towns and villages around kyiv. are you seeing that yourself? steven, i live in the same world as you, although we perhaps are 3—4 hours away from each other by plane. but it is very painful to watch that on many levels. has it changed your feelings? you said to me at the beginning of this interview you would not make any public statement about your feelings about this war, but ijust wonder whether your feelings are changing over time. my feelings, you know, they obviously change as a human being and as a person that wants to live in a very peaceful world.

but i will be honest with you, ijust... i see tremendous risks in saying anything at all about this case, because i will never satisfy everyone, and therefore i will keep myself publicly quiet. what we have six months on from the launch of putin's ukraine gamble is a world divided. the us—led western and allied democracies backing kyiv and insisting putin must be seen to fail. but in much of the rest of the world, well, let's just say it's a lot more complicated. you only have the active support for your military invasion of ukraine from belarus, north korea, syria and eritrea — four dictatorships. even china, which is supposed to be your friend, says that ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty must be respected. you're out of friends.

i do not think the assessment is right. i am not sure that your attempts to isolate russia succeeded. i think that the west perhaps made some tactical gains, but it is losing strategically. one thing that is clear outcome of those sanctions that the west introduced, is that you lost practically any leverage on russia at all. you know that president putin, even before this conflict, he said once that the west can introduce all the sanctions they can. we had no illusions before, and we will not have any illusions there. six months into the fighting, it has become a grim battle of wills. russian forces continue their grinding, slow offensive to take all of the donbas region. ukrainians are attempting to reverse russian gains

in the south, but they remain significantly outgunned. russia's military losses are enormous — but for ukraine, it's notjust soldiers who are dying, it is thousands of civilians with many millions forced to flee their homes. will the price of resistance ultimately be too high to bear? we will fight till the victorious end. and i'm pretty sure that the victorious end, the victory, is going to be there. the price of that is still to be determined. i understand that it will be a hard price. i understand that a lot of people already been killed and maybe will be killed. we'll have a lot of destruction, but unfortunately, that's the price we need to pay having such a crazy neighbour, and also the price we need to pay to become really independent for a long time from this moment. all right, i want to — yeah.

so, ukraine didn't start this war, but we are ready to fight till we are sure that our children will have a good future. i can confirm you, - steve, that i'm speaking on behalf of my people. you cannot even imagine how much people has - been suffering here. my friends has been murdered, tortured, my family has been . hiding in a bomb shelter for two weeks, just - as thousands and - thousands of families. women has been raped, - some of them are pregnant. people were — more than 1,400 people has been simply shelledj on the streets in their head. so, amount of suffering which is unbearable. . you cannot even imagine that which is happening i on our soil these days. so, nothing, nothing l could be done to make sure that the beginning - of the negotiations to start with understanding that we have no other way to overcome -

and to restore our territorial integrity, and to make surel that russia is accountable, first and foremost, - for the crimes. so, nothing in this- negotiation should lead to legitimisation of this war. it's clear now that there will be no early end to this conflict. for ukraine, it's about national survival. for putin, it's about regime survival. it's a bleak conclusion, but, given these existential stakes, the cost of europe's terrible 21st—century war is likely to get much higher.

hello there. wednesday was another hot and humid day for much of eastern and southeast england — and we are likely to see a few thundery downpours breaking out, which will be slow to clear during the morning. and then, once they do so, friday on the whole will be dry, sunny, but noticeably fresher behind. so it's this weather front that's the dividing line between that fresher air to the northwest, and the humid air into that southeastern corner. it is producing some rain — some of it fairly intense, as it moves its way across the pennines and up into northeast england. and at the same time, it's this batch of thunderstorms developing which will become more of a feature over the next few hours across southeast england. so here, it will stay pretty humid, and we are likely to see a couple of inches of rainfall before that system eases through. just how far west of london these showers go is still subject to question,

but they will certainly be clearing away from norfolk, suffolk, and across the kent coast first thing on thursday morning. quite a lot of cloud behind, that should start to thin and break into the afternoon. fresher conditions with some sunshine elsewhere, a few scattered showers across the far northwest of scotland. in terms of the feel of the weather here, we're looking at around 15—21 celsius — no small difference to the feel of the weather further south, 23—24, but we've certainly lost that high humidity. now, as we move into friday, this weather front will be a very weak affair with a little bump of high pressure building in behind. so, on the whole friday, that frontal system could bring some cloud and a few nuisance showers, as you can see quite clearly, stretching across southern scotland, northwest england, down through wales, and into devon and cornwall. to the east of that, still largely fine and dry. to the north of that, fresher, but with more sunshine coming through. we'll be a degree or so warmer potentially on friday in that sunshine — 25 is 77 fahrenheit.

now, as we head into the weekend, high pressure will build — this weather front will tend to sit into the far northwest, and could impact the far north of scotland. but generally speaking, we'll have light winds, we'll have a good deal of dry weather. it's the last bank holiday weekend for northern ireland, england, and wales — and it will be a pretty perfect one if you've got outdoor plans with the family.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore, i'm karishma vaswani. the headlines. as ukraine continues to put up a strong resistance to the russian forces, we have a special report from the southern front. six months on, the question is, what's next for ukraine? well, it needs a win here and it says... munitions explode ..that it's planning a counter—offensive here in the south. president zelensky says at least 22 people have been killed in a missile strike on a railway station in eastern ukraine. also in the programme. scorching temperatures and a record—breaking heatwave

forces the chinese government to issue an urgent