hello and welcome to the programme that brings together distinguished british commentators and foreign correspondents who write, blog, podcast and broadcast from the dateline: london. it's been a week for recalling the world's unfinished business — sectarian violence on city streets in iraq as one of its most influential figures bows out in a country which has endured nearly 20 years of instability. mikhail gorbachev, the last leader of the soviet union is being buried this weekend, in a country still struggling with his legacy. the british are still waiting for a new prime minister.

in the studio to discuss all that are — bronwen maddox, director and chief executive of chatham house, an independent organisation, which under its royal charter exists "to advance "the sciences of international politics, economics, "and jurisprudence". the charter dates from 1926, bronwen maddox from last month; but her appointment is the culmination of a distinguished career reporting the world. michael goldfarb has been a foreign correspondent for npr, national public radio, in the united states. his podcast is the first rough draft of history. stefanie bolzen is uk and ireland correspondent for the german media group, die welt, including for its newspaper of the same name — a paper established in hamburg by the british army of occupation, one month after winston churchill delivered his speech warning that an iron curtain was descending and dividing europe. talk about unfinished business! bronwyn, let's begin with that unfinished business of the new prime

minister. we will know on monday whether it's rishi sunak or list trusts. it whether it's rishi sunak or list trusts. ., , see that liz truss has got it. we haven't learned some central things like what you might do, but we've learned quite a lot of important fragments. pretty uncompromising position towards the northern ireland protocol. she wants to have defence spending at 3%, but we don't know where the money's coming from. the phrase that probably resonates, the jury's out on whether or not

france is friend orfoe, which rather alarmed friends and foes all around. ithink rather alarmed friends and foes all around. i think we've learned something about the style, she really prides herself on being a disruptor in a disruptive world. that will be particularly interesting for the so—called special relationship. every country likes to talk about its special relationship with the us. but michael, she did say that there all the busy entries she's going to have, she's going to make time for a call for a white house withjoe biden. how enthusiastic do you think the administration will be about that? i the administration will be about that? ., , , a, a, that? i doubt they will have a problem- _ that? i doubt they will have a problem. every _ that? i doubt they will have a problem. every time - that? i doubt they will have a problem. every time there'sl that? i doubt they will have a | problem. every time there's a that? i doubt they will have a - problem. every time there's a new british_ problem. every time there's a new british pm. — problem. every time there's a new british pm, it's about the call to too _ british pm, it's about the call to too i_ british pm, it's about the call to too. i wouldn't mind if she was walking — too. i wouldn't mind if she was walking down the colonies on the

white _ walking down the colonies on the white house, the way theresa may did with donald trump. he seemed to have a hard _ with donald trump. he seemed to have a hard time _ with donald trump. he seemed to have a hard time finding the next step. but seriously, i think they have one thing _ but seriously, i think they have one thing to— but seriously, i think they have one thing to talk about, and bronwen mentioned it — the northern ireland protowi— mentioned it — the northern ireland protocol concerns not just joe mentioned it — the northern ireland protocol concerns notjustjoe biden protocol concerns not just joe biden because _ protocol concerns notjustjoe biden because he's irish—american, but also congress. that will be a key topic, _ also congress. that will be a key topic, but— also congress. that will be a key topic, but the other thing is look — it is a _ topic, but the other thing is look — it is a time — topic, but the other thing is look — it is a time of— topic, but the other thing is look — it is a time of crisis, and the last thing _ it is a time of crisis, and the last thing that— it is a time of crisis, and the last thing that an american president wants is— thing that an american president wants is to have his core alliance with europe splitting apart over trade _ with europe splitting apart over trade issues and a kind of foolishness. don't play these kinds of games — foolishness. don't play these kinds of games i— foolishness. don't play these kinds of games. i don't thank ron takes it seriously, _ of games. i don't thank ron takes it seriously, to — of games. i don't thank ron takes it seriously, to be honest. —— i don't think— seriously, to be honest. —— i don't think macron _

seriously, to be honest. —— i don't think macron takes it seriously. whether— think macron takes it seriously. whether that happens on wednesday or three weeks from wednesday, because he has _ three weeks from wednesday, because he has a _ three weeks from wednesday, because he has a pretty full in tres. stefanie. _ he has a pretty full in tres. stefanie, one thing she has been explicit of, a lack of detail on the cost of living questions. liz truss has been explicit because she said there would be no rationing. the debate is somewhat different in germany because they've been talking about rationing at least since the summer. �* about rationing at least since the summer. ~ .. ., , about rationing at least since the summer. ~ ., , ., , , about rationing at least since the summer. �* ., , ., , , ., summer. and i actually happened to attend the very _ summer. and i actually happened to attend the very last _ summer. and i actually happened to attend the very last hustings - summer. and i actually happened to attend the very last hustings in - attend the very last hustings in london. — attend the very last hustings in london. and _ attend the very last hustings in london. and i— attend the very last hustings in london, and i was _ attend the very last hustings in london, and i was surprised i attend the very last hustings in i london, and i was surprised when attend the very last hustings in - london, and i was surprised when she said that, _ london, and i was surprised when she said that, because _ london, and i was surprised when she said that, because i— london, and i was surprised when she said that, because ijust _ london, and i was surprised when she said that, because ijust came - london, and i was surprised when she said that, because ijust came back. said that, because ijust came back from _ said that, because ijust came back from germany— said that, because ijust came back from germany and _ said that, because ijust came back from germany and we _ said that, because ijust came back from germany and we have - said that, because ijust came back from germany and we have the - from germany and we have the breaking — from germany and we have the breaking news— from germany and we have the breaking news that _ from germany and we have the breaking news that north - from germany and we have the l breaking news that north stream from germany and we have the - breaking news that north stream one will not _ breaking news that north stream one will not deiiver— breaking news that north stream one will not deliver any— breaking news that north stream one will not deliver any more _ breaking news that north stream one will not deliver any more gas. - breaking news that north stream one will not deliver any more gas. it - breaking news that north stream one will not deliver any more gas. it is . will not deliver any more gas. it is really— will not deliver any more gas. it is really urgent — will not deliver any more gas. it is really urgent in _ will not deliver any more gas. it is really urgent in germany. - will not deliver any more gas. it is really urgent in germany. in - will not deliver any more gas. it is really urgent in germany. in the l really urgent in germany. in the spring, — really urgent in germany. in the spring, there _ really urgent in germany. in the spring, there was _ really urgent in germany. in the spring, there was a _ really urgent in germany. in the spring, there was a gas - really urgent in germany. in the i spring, there was a gas emergency plan taunched~ _

spring, there was a gas emergency plan launched. in— spring, there was a gas emergency plan launched. in public— spring, there was a gas emergency plan launched. in public buildings, | plan launched. in public buildings, the temperatures _ plan launched. in public buildings, the temperatures have _ plan launched. in public buildings, the temperatures have to - plan launched. in public buildings, the temperatures have to go - plan launched. in public buildings, j the temperatures have to go down plan launched. in public buildings, i the temperatures have to go down to 19 celsius _ the temperatures have to go down to 19 celsius. talking _ the temperatures have to go down to 19 celsius. talking to _ the temperatures have to go down to 19 celsius. talking to people - the temperatures have to go down to 19 celsius. talking to people in - 19 celsius. talking to people in germany, _ 19 celsius. talking to people in germany, it's— 19 celsius. talking to people in germany, it's all— 19 celsius. talking to people in germany, it's all they - 19 celsius. talking to people in germany, it's all they talk - 19 celsius. talking to people in . germany, it's all they talk about. it's germany, it's all they talk about. it's about— germany, it's all they talk about. it's about cold _ germany, it's all they talk about. it's about cold showers. - germany, it's all they talk about. it's about cold showers. in - germany, it's all they talk about. it's about cold showers. in the i it's about cold showers. in the summer— it's about cold showers. in the summer it's _ it's about cold showers. in the summer it's quite _ it's about cold showers. in the summer it's quite nice. - it's about cold showers. in the summer it's quite nice. 20%. it's about cold showers. in the| summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy— summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy needs _ summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy needs to _ summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy needs to be _ summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy needs to be safe - summer it's quite nice. 20% of energy needs to be safe to - energy needs to be safe to compensate _ energy needs to be safe to compensate build - energy needs to be safe to| compensate build delivery. energy needs to be safe to - compensate build delivery. it’s energy needs to be safe to compensate build delivery. it's hard not to draw — compensate build delivery. it's hard not to draw the _ compensate build delivery. it's hard not to draw the parallels _ compensate build delivery. it's hard not to draw the parallels about - compensate build delivery. it's hard not to draw the parallels about the l not to draw the parallels about the energy shocks that we went through. i was listening to the radio reminiscing at the fact that she had three hours on and off. we're not talking about this, we aren't even engaging in this question. irate talking about this, we aren't even engaging in this question.- engaging in this question. we are beauinnin engaging in this question. we are beginning to. _ engaging in this question. we are

beginning to, and _ engaging in this question. we are beginning to, and that _ engaging in this question. we are beginning to, and that is - engaging in this question. we are beginning to, and that is where l beginning to, and that is where you can feel the fear. you begin to bring him what michael said, you begin to see the cost of that, that it's. .. begin to see the cost of that, that it's... about what on earth europe and britain are going to do. i think britain has something to bring on that. �* �* , britain has something to bring on that. , ~' that. and it's presumably the kind of thin . that. and it's presumably the kind of thing that _ that. and it's presumably the kind of thing that could _ that. and it's presumably the kind of thing that could provide - that. and it's presumably the kind of thing that could provide a - of thing that could provide a tremendous bond between the uk and europe. is it possible that this is one of the things she will choose to disrupt? she might say that's very old government. i want to be fresh and new and because of my reputation, i'm the person who could rebuild those nations. she reputation, i'm the person who could rebuild those nations.— rebuild those nations. she could, and i rebuild those nations. she could, and i think— rebuild those nations. she could, and i think there's _ rebuild those nations. she could, and i think there's a _ rebuild those nations. she could, and i think there's a huge - and i think there's a huge opportunity for britain. to start talking to the eu about energy and

migration. about all these things. but then, you come back to these words. the bitterness about the legislation that, as far as me know, liz truss very much backed. until she has settled that, all this other stuff isn't acceptable, and she is going to take a very uncompromising line. �* ~' .,, , , line. and i think the loss will be very uncompromising _ line. and i think the loss will be very uncompromising because l line. and i think the loss will be i very uncompromising because they line. and i think the loss will be - very uncompromising because they are not so _ very uncompromising because they are not so sure _ very uncompromising because they are not so sure how— very uncompromising because they are not so sure how tong _ very uncompromising because they are not so sure how long she _ very uncompromising because they are not so sure how long she will - very uncompromising because they are not so sure how long she will be - not so sure how long she will be there _ not so sure how long she will be there since _ not so sure how long she will be there. since brexit_ not so sure how long she will be there. since brexit happened, . not so sure how long she will be - there. since brexit happened, there have treen— there. since brexit happened, there have been three _ there. since brexit happened, there have been three prime _ there. since brexit happened, there have been three prime ministers. . there. since brexit happened, there . have been three prime ministers. why would _ have been three prime ministers. why would there _ have been three prime ministers. why would there agree _ have been three prime ministers. why would there agree something - have been three prime ministers. why would there agree something of- have been three prime ministers. why would there agree something of a - would there agree something of a deal if— would there agree something of a deal if they— would there agree something of a deal if they don't _ would there agree something of a deal if they don't know _ would there agree something of a deal if they don't know what - would there agree something of a deal if they don't know what he's i deal if they don't know what he's going _ deal if they don't know what he's going to — deal if they don't know what he's going to say— deal if they don't know what he's going to say was _ deal if they don't know what he's going to say was yellow - deal if they don't know what he's going to say was yellow really i deal if they don't know what he's . going to say was yellow really good point _ going to say was yellow really good oint. �* , going to say was yellow really good oint. v . ~ going to say was yellow really good oint. �*, ., ,, ., ,., going to say was yellow really good oint. �*, ., ,, ., ~ ., point. let's talk about ukraine. what do you — point. let's talk about ukraine. what do you think _ point. let's talk about ukraine. what do you think is _ point. let's talk about ukraine. what do you think is the - what do you think is the significance around kherson? i

what do you think is the significance around kherson? i think it's important _ significance around kherson? i think it's important because _ significance around kherson? i think it's important because if _ significance around kherson? i think it's important because if the - ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson— ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, _ ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, which _ ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, which i _ ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, which i don't - ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, which i don't think. ukrainian army succeeded in taking kherson back, which i don't think isj kherson back, which i don't think is likely, _ kherson back, which i don't think is likely, but— kherson back, which i don't think is likely, but they— kherson back, which i don't think is likely, but they are _ kherson back, which i don't think is likely, but they are making - kherson back, which i don't think is likely, but they are making very- likely, but they are making very slow _ likely, but they are making very slow progress _ likely, but they are making very slow progress. on _ likely, but they are making very slow progress. on the - likely, but they are making very slow progress. on the one - likely, but they are making veryl slow progress. on the one hand, likely, but they are making very- slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally— slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally important _ slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally important for— slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally important for ukraine, - slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally important for ukraine, but l slow progress. on the one hand, it's morally important for ukraine, but i| morally important for ukraine, but i think— morally important for ukraine, but i think strategically, _ morally important for ukraine, but i think strategically, it's _ morally important for ukraine, but i think strategically, it's to _ morally important for ukraine, but i think strategically, it's to show - think strategically, it's to show that thanks _ think strategically, it's to show that thanks to _ think strategically, it's to show that thanks to the _ think strategically, it's to show that thanks to the weapon - think strategically, it's to show - that thanks to the weapon deliveries and the _ that thanks to the weapon deliveries and the equipment— that thanks to the weapon deliveries and the equipment that _ that thanks to the weapon deliveries and the equipment that is _ that thanks to the weapon deliveries and the equipment that is now- and the equipment that is now deployed. _ and the equipment that is now deployed, the _ and the equipment that is now deployed, the ukrainians - and the equipment that is now deployed, the ukrainians are i and the equipment that is now- deployed, the ukrainians are using it and _ deployed, the ukrainians are using it and driving — deployed, the ukrainians are using it and driving the _ deployed, the ukrainians are using it and driving the russian - deployed, the ukrainians are using it and driving the russian forces i it and driving the russian forces back _ it and driving the russian forces back they— it and driving the russian forces back. they have _ it and driving the russian forces back. they have suffered - it and driving the russian forces - back. they have suffered significant losses. _ back. they have suffered significant losses. so _ back. they have suffered significant losses. so it's — back. they have suffered significant losses, so it's a _ back. they have suffered significant losses, so it's a very— back. they have suffered significant losses, so it's a very important - losses, so it's a very important thing _ losses, so it's a very important thing to— losses, so it's a very important thing to watch, _ losses, so it's a very important thing to watch, but _ losses, so it's a very important thing to watch, but they - losses, so it's a very important thing to watch, but they say i losses, so it's a very important l thing to watch, but they say they want _ thing to watch, but they say they want to _ thing to watch, but they say they want to grind _ thing to watch, but they say they want to grind down _ thing to watch, but they say they want to grind down the _ thing to watch, but they say they want to grind down the russian i want to grind down the russian troops — want to grind down the russian troops in — want to grind down the russian troops in kherson, _ want to grind down the russian troops in kherson, and - want to grind down the russian troops in kherson, and it's - want to grind down the russian. troops in kherson, and it's going want to grind down the russian - troops in kherson, and it's going to take a _ troops in kherson, and it's going to take a very— troops in kherson, and it's going to take a very long _ troops in kherson, and it's going to take a very long time. _ troops in kherson, and it's going to take a very long time.— take a very long time. perspectives need to be that _ take a very long time. perspectives need to be that this _ take a very long time. perspectives need to be that this is _ take a very long time. perspectives need to be that this is not - take a very long time. perspectives need to be that this is not quite - take a very long time. perspectives need to be that this is not quite a l need to be that this is not quite a war of attrition, but it's certainly a war that has reached a point which we can expect a little progress for

quite a long time.— we can expect a little progress for quite a long time. yes, and we also have to remember _ quite a long time. yes, and we also have to remember the _ quite a long time. yes, and we also have to remember the weather. - quite a long time. yes, and we also i have to remember the weather. we're at the _ have to remember the weather. we're at the first— have to remember the weather. we're at the first week of september, and things— at the first week of september, and things become a bit more difficult in october. it still feels like attrition _ in october. it still feels like attrition. i know sir lawrence freedman, who i follow religiously, and people who watch the programme, look and people who watch the programme, took him _ and people who watch the programme, took him on _ and people who watch the programme, look him up. he doesn't see this going _ look him up. he doesn't see this going on— look him up. he doesn't see this going on for years, it's a stalemate and it— going on for years, it's a stalemate and it wilt— going on for years, it's a stalemate and it will ultimately sooner rather than later— and it will ultimately sooner rather than later be negotiated out. but it is incredibly important to take as much _ is incredibly important to take as much territory on the far side of the dnieper oh in this area —— dhipro — the dnieper oh in this area —— dhipro for— the dnieper oh in this area —— dnipro. for morale if nothing else and to— dnipro. for morale if nothing else and to get— dnipro. for morale if nothing else and to get that territory captured before _ and to get that territory captured before the really bad it would ——

bad weather makes anything impossible. bad weather makes anything impossible-— bad weather makes anything impossible. they are having a real disru tive impossible. they are having a real disruptive effect _ impossible. they are having a real disruptive effect on _ impossible. they are having a real disruptive effect on russia. - impossible. they are having a real disruptive effect on russia. i - disruptive effect on russia. i couldn't call it strategic. they're not going to get very far. what couldn't call it strategic. they're not going to get very far. what the other thin . not going to get very far. what the other thing is _ not going to get very far. what the other thing is there _ not going to get very far. what the other thing is there is _ not going to get very far. what the other thing is there is an _ not going to get very far. what the other thing is there is an urgency. | other thing is there is an urgency. russia _ other thing is there is an urgency. russia keeps threatening to hold these _ russia keeps threatening to hold these to— russia keeps threatening to hold these to ratify new russian dominated government in the area. i think they're trying to disrupt it and make — think they're trying to disrupt it and make it seem like, you can hold and make it seem like, you can hold an election — and make it seem like, you can hold an election if— and make it seem like, you can hold an election if you like, but we're 'ust an election if you like, but we're just terr— an election if you like, but we're just teh km _ an election if you like, but we're just ten km up the road and we're coming _ just ten km up the road and we're coming. this will be a disrupting of act —— effect on these elections. although — act —— effect on these elections. although i — act —— effect on these elections. although i guess my question is what effect _ although i guess my question is what effect might have on european morale and european solidarity? that is one of the audience's?— of the audience's? that's the big thin.

of the audience's? that's the big thing. potentially _ of the audience's? that's the big thing. potentially more - of the audience's? that's the big thing. potentially more fickle. i thing. potentially more fickle. there is an interesting piece in the economist, trying to measure the impact of sanctions. but that is not on its own going to be enough to get russia to abandon its military operation. people are paying a huge price for this. i've asked this question repeatedly. it is still alive question, will the kind of unity hold in those circumstances? you see it reflected in the polls and in — you see it reflected in the polls and in germany, _ you see it reflected in the polls and in germany, the _ you see it reflected in the polls and in germany, the opinion. you see it reflected in the polls. and in germany, the opinion was split _ and in germany, the opinion was split there _ and in germany, the opinion was split. there was _ and in germany, the opinion was split. there was support - and in germany, the opinion was split. there was support of - split. there was support of delivering _ split. there was support of delivering weapons. - split. there was support of delivering weapons. the i split. there was support of - delivering weapons. the effect on 'obs delivering weapons. the effect on jobs and — delivering weapons. the effect on jobs and how— delivering weapons. the effect on jobs and how people's _ delivering weapons. the effect on jobs and how people's standard . delivering weapons. the effect on| jobs and how people's standard of living, _ jobs and how people's standard of living, how — jobs and how people's standard of living, how they— jobs and how people's standard of living, how they can _ jobs and how people's standard of living, how they can get _ jobs and how people's standard of living, how they can get over- jobs and how people's standard of living, how they can get over the. living, how they can get over the winter _ living, how they can get over the winter but — living, how they can get over the winter. but looking _ living, how they can get over the winter. but looking at _ living, how they can get over the winter. but looking at austria, . living, how they can get over the . winter. but looking at austria, they are going _ winter. but looking at austria, they are going in —

winter. but looking at austria, they are going in the _ winter. but looking at austria, they are going in the opposite _ winter. but looking at austria, they are going in the opposite direction. j are going in the opposite direction. if are going in the opposite direction. it you _ are going in the opposite direction. it you took— are going in the opposite direction. if you took at — are going in the opposite direction. if you look at the _ if you look at the british government, _ if you look at the british government, they- if you look at the british government, they are l if you look at the british - government, they are saying this if you look at the british _ government, they are saying this is not what _ government, they are saying this is not what should _ government, they are saying this is not what should be _ government, they are saying this is not what should be done _ government, they are saying this is not what should be done right - government, they are saying this is not what should be done right now. theh _ not what should be done right now. theh ohty _ not what should be done right now. then only negotiations _ not what should be done right now. then only negotiations can - not what should be done right now. then only negotiations can start. i then only negotiations can start. it's then only negotiations can start. it's a _ then only negotiations can start. it's a situation _ then only negotiations can start. it's a situation where _ then only negotiations can start. it's a situation where ukraine - then only negotiations can start. it's a situation where ukraine is i it's a situation where ukraine is negotiation from strength. that feels. . . negotiation from strength. that feels - - not _ negotiation from strength. that feels... not wishful— negotiation from strength. trust feels... not wishful thinking! what a nice bit of improvised nation. and a nice bit of improvised nation. and we may never— a nice bit of improvised nation. and we may never get there. i was struck by the speech in which he said a couple of decades of cheap russian energy has gone for now and may never come back. the actual... one of the cornerstones of the german economic success of the last couple decades looks really in danger. that

politically must be a highly risky moment for the government. yeah, and it's fra . ile moment for the government. yeah, and it's fragile already. _ moment for the government. yeah, and it's fragile already. only _ moment for the government. yeah, and it's fragile already. only a _ moment for the government. yeah, and it's fragile already. only a year - it's fragile already. only a year after— it's fragile already. only a year after having _ it's fragile already. only a year after having elections - it's fragile already. only a year after having elections in- it's fragile already. only a year - after having elections in germany, and over— after having elections in germany, and over europe, _ after having elections in germany, and over europe, it's— after having elections in germany, and over europe, it's not- after having elections in germany, and over europe, it's not only- and over europe, it's not only germahy_ and over europe, it's not only germany dependent - and over europe, it's not only germany dependent on - and over europe, it's not only germany dependent on gas. i and over europe, it's not only. germany dependent on gas. it's and over europe, it's not only- germany dependent on gas. it's a turning _ germany dependent on gas. it's a turning of— germany dependent on gas. it's a turning of time _ germany dependent on gas. it's a turning of time and _ germany dependent on gas. it's a turning of time and whether- germany dependent on gas. it's a turning of time and whether it's . germany dependent on gas. it's a i turning of time and whether it's the economic— turning of time and whether it's the economic model— turning of time and whether it's the economic model or— turning of time and whether it's the economic model or peace _ turning of time and whether it's the economic model or peace and - economic model or peace and security. _ economic model or peace and security. it _ economic model or peace and security, it will— economic model or peace and security, it will change - economic model or peace and - security, it will change everything. your _ security, it will change everything. your view, — security, it will change everything. your view, there _ security, it will change everything. your view, there are _ security, it will change everything. your view, there are two - security, it will change everything. your view, there are two words. i security, it will change everything. . your view, there are two words. one is the _ your view, there are two words. one is the increasingly present worry atrout— is the increasingly present worry about the — is the increasingly present worry about the cost of energy, but to what _ about the cost of energy, but to what degree does the idea of this russia _ what degree does the idea of this russia pushing westward still inspire — russia pushing westward still inspire a _ russia pushing westward still inspire a bit of fear in germany, but also — inspire a bit of fear in germany, but also in — inspire a bit of fear in germany, but also in places like romania and bulgaria _ but also in places like romania and bulgaria and... we know how it was in poland. _ bulgaria and... we know how it was in poland, where people were not having _ in poland, where people were not having it — in poland, where people were not having it. they are trying to drag

the eu _ having it. they are trying to drag the eu into — having it. they are trying to drag the eu into a very strong sanctioned position, but i wonder in germany, which _ position, but i wonder in germany, which is _ position, but i wonder in germany, which is the — position, but i wonder in germany, which is the key country here, if that balance still is — we can't attow— that balance still is — we can't allow putin to send tanks through another— allow putin to send tanks through another country and get 700 km closer— another country and get 700 km closer to — another country and get 700 km closer to our own border. which was, ithink. _ closer to our own border. which was, ithink. of— closer to our own border. which was, ithink. of you — closer to our own border. which was, i think, of you people closer to our own border. which was, ithink, of you people have closer to our own border. which was, i think, of you people have five months ago. | i think, of you people have five months age-— i think, of you people have five months ago-— i think, of you people have five months auo. ~' _, , months ago. i think there continues to be a certain _ months ago. i think there continues to be a certain complacency - months ago. i think there continues to be a certain complacency and - to be a certain complacency and there _ to be a certain complacency and there is— to be a certain complacency and there is the _ to be a certain complacency and there is the idea _ to be a certain complacency and there is the idea this— to be a certain complacency and there is the idea this could - to be a certain complacency andl there is the idea this could never happen, — there is the idea this could never happen. and _ there is the idea this could never happen. and i_ there is the idea this could never happen, and i think— there is the idea this could never happen, and i think there's- there is the idea this could never happen, and i think there's alsoi there is the idea this could never| happen, and i think there's also a certain. _ happen, and i think there's also a certain. i— happen, and i think there's also a certain, i would _ happen, and i think there's also a certain, i would almost _ happen, and i think there's also a certain, i would almost colette i certain, i would almost colette aaron — certain, i would almost colette aaron against _ certain, i would almost colette aaron against —— _ certain, i would almost colette aaron against —— arrogance, i certain, i would almost colette i aaron against —— arrogance, but germans — aaron against —— arrogance, but germans simpty _ aaron against —— arrogance, but germans simply cannot - aaron against —— arrogance, but germans simply cannot imagine j aaron against —— arrogance, but- germans simply cannot imagine that might— germans simply cannot imagine that might happen — germans simply cannot imagine that might happen-— might happen. crosstalk the real fear _ might happen. crosstalk the real fear that - might happen. crosstalk the real fear that is - might happen. crosstalk the real fear that is there l might happen. crosstalkl the real fear that is there is satisfied, not dismissed. what's the predatory —— priority now. it

satisfied, not dismissed. what's the predatory -- priority now.— predatory -- priority now. it feels uuite predatory -- priority now. it feels quite hypothetical. _ predatory -- priority now. it feels quite hypothetical. this— predatory -- priority now. it feels quite hypothetical. this is - predatory -- priority now. it feels quite hypothetical. this is a - quite hypothetical. this is a reminder— quite hypothetical. this is a reminder of _ quite hypothetical. this is a reminder of the _ quite hypothetical. this is a reminder of the fact - quite hypothetical. this is a reminder of the fact we - quite hypothetical. this is a| reminder of the fact we only quite hypothetical. this is a - reminder of the fact we only had 30 odd years since the soviet union dissolved. we sold the death of this week of mikhail gorbachev. how significant a figure was he in germany?— figure was he in germany? margaret thatcher was — figure was he in germany? margaret thatcher was very _ figure was he in germany? margaret thatcher was very critical _ figure was he in germany? margaret thatcher was very critical of - figure was he in germany? margaret thatcher was very critical of german | thatcher was very critical of german reunification, — thatcher was very critical of german reunification, but— thatcher was very critical of german reunification, but i— thatcher was very critical of german reunification, but i was— thatcher was very critical of german reunification, but i was a _ thatcher was very critical of german reunification, but i was a teenager. reunification, but i was a teenager in those _ reunification, but i was a teenager in those days _ reunification, but i was a teenager in those days. but _ reunification, but i was a teenager in those days. but i _ reunification, but i was a teenager in those days. but i do _ reunification, but i was a teenager in those days. but i do rememberl reunification, but i was a teenager. in those days. but i do remember the 40 year— in those days. but i do remember the 40 year parades — in those days. but i do remember the 40 year parades and _ in those days. but i do remember the 40 year parades and festivities - in those days. but i do remember the 40 year parades and festivities in - 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin — 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin in _ 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin in 1989. _ 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin in 1989. he _ 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin in 1989. he was- 40 year parades and festivities in east berlin in 1989. he was there and did _ east berlin in 1989. he was there and did speeches _ east berlin in 1989. he was there and did speeches and _ east berlin in 1989. he was there and did speeches and allegedly. east berlin in 1989. he was there i and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence — and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence of— and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence of huda _ and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence of huda size - and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence of huda size will- and did speeches and allegedly set the sentence of huda size will be l the sentence of huda size will be punished — the sentence of huda size will be punished by— the sentence of huda size will be punished by life _ the sentence of huda size will be punished by life —— _ the sentence of huda size will be punished by life —— who - the sentence of huda size will be punished by life —— who decides. | the sentence of huda size will be i punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't _ punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't quite what _ punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't quite what he _ punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't quite what he said, - punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't quite what he said, but- punished by life —— who decides. it wasn't quite what he said, but he i wasn't quite what he said, but he basically— wasn't quite what he said, but he basically totd _ wasn't quite what he said, but he

basically told the _ wasn't quite what he said, but he basically told the regime - wasn't quite what he said, but he basically told the regime in - wasn't quite what he said, but he basically told the regime in easti basically told the regime in east berlin, — basically told the regime in east berlin, you _ basically told the regime in east berlin, you have _ basically told the regime in east berlin, you have to _ basically told the regime in east berlin, you have to change. - basically told the regime in east berlin, you have to change. ori basically told the regime in east. berlin, you have to change. or the people _ berlin, you have to change. or the peopte witi— berlin, you have to change. or the peopte will make _ berlin, you have to change. or the people will make you _ berlin, you have to change. or the people will make you change - berlin, you have to change. or the people will make you change and i berlin, you have to change. or the i people will make you change and you will not _ people will make you change and you will not belong — people will make you change and you will not belong here _ people will make you change and you will not belong here any _ people will make you change and you will not belong here any more. - people will make you change and you will not belong here any more. in - will not belong here any more. in november— will not belong here any more. in november 89, _ will not belong here any more. in november89, there— will not belong here any more. in november 89, there was- will not belong here any more. in november 89, there was the - will not belong here any more. in november 89, there was the fear will not belong here any more. in l november 89, there was the fear if the tanks _ november 89, there was the fear if the tanks would _ november 89, there was the fear if the tanks would roll— november 89, there was the fear if the tanks would roll in _ november 89, there was the fear if the tanks would roll in and - november 89, there was the fear if the tanks would roll in and they - the tanks would roll in and they didn't, — the tanks would roll in and they didn't, and~~~ _ the tanks would roll in and they didn't, and...— didn't, and... crosstalk of course _ didn't, and. . . crosstalk of course there _ didn't, and. . . crosstalk of course there was - didn't, and. . . crosstalk of course there was a - didn't, and. . . crosstalk of course there was a bit| didn't, and... crosstalk | of course there was a bit of didn't, and... crosstalk - of course there was a bit of the security— of course there was a bit of the security to _ of course there was a bit of the security to know _ of course there was a bit of the security to know gorbachev - of course there was a bit of the security to know gorbachev it . of course there was a bit of the l security to know gorbachev it will not turn — security to know gorbachev it will not turn aggressive _ security to know gorbachev it will not turn aggressive to _ security to know gorbachev it will not turn aggressive to us - security to know gorbachev it will| not turn aggressive to us because security to know gorbachev it will . not turn aggressive to us because he said the _ not turn aggressive to us because he said the opposite _ not turn aggressive to us because he said the opposite. that _ not turn aggressive to us because he said the opposite. that was - not turn aggressive to us because he said the opposite. that was pivotal. said the opposite. that was pivotal to the _ said the opposite. that was pivotal to the whole — said the opposite. that was pivotal to the whole development. - said the opposite. that was pivotal to the whole development. that. said the opposite. that was pivotal to the whole development. that seems his real significance, _ to the whole development. that seems his real significance, that _ to the whole development. that seems his real significance, that he _ his real significance, that he allowed... maybe not withjoy, but the dissolution of the soviet union in those countries to go away more or less peacefully. i know the whole projects he wanted, including the lack of borders from the west, but the fact is he allowed something enormous to happen, and that had enormous to happen, and that had enormous effect on modern europe.

and could have had that effect on russia, but i think the west intern not understand just how big a moment and how big of a change it would be for russia itself. so, we had the kleptocracy, and so on, but gorbachev presided over, enormous. one interesting thing is that i don't — one interesting thing is that i don't think anyone was prepared. certainty. — don't think anyone was prepared. certainly, gorbachev wasn't. he was prepared _ certainly, gorbachev wasn't. he was prepared to — certainly, gorbachev wasn't. he was prepared to let the warsaw pact toose~ _ prepared to let the warsaw pact loose i— prepared to let the warsaw pact loose. i don't think it was important to him. the economy in russia _ important to him. the economy in russia needed attention. i say russia — russia needed attention. i say russia and the soviet union. i do mean _ russia and the soviet union. i do mean in — russia and the soviet union. i do mean in the _ russia and the soviet union. i do mean in the soviet union because he was a _ mean in the soviet union because he was a man— mean in the soviet union because he was a man of— mean in the soviet union because he was a man of the soviet union. but the post— was a man of the soviet union. but the post gorbachev, which happened very weekly, he didn't expect to be the victim — very weekly, he didn't expect to be the victim of a coup when he went on vacation _ the victim of a coup when he went on vacation in _ the victim of a coup when he went on

vacation in crimea. it was a very, very— vacation in crimea. it was a very, very difficult _ vacation in crimea. it was a very, very difficult time for him and i think— very difficult time for him and i think no— very difficult time for him and i think no one has ever seen what happened — think no one has ever seen what happened to a society that's been a totalitarian society in which everyone is turned on everyone else and you _ everyone is turned on everyone else and you have this central kgb history— and you have this central kgb history where anyone could be denounced and sent away. suddenly, that structure, political, economic and social, — that structure, political, economic and social, disappears. i think it makes _ and social, disappears. i think it makes people a little crazy, and after _ makes people a little crazy, and after a _ makes people a little crazy, and after a while, they begin to want the comfort of what was, even if what _ the comfort of what was, even if what was — the comfort of what was, even if what was was really kind of awful. i think— what was was really kind of awful. i think what — what was was really kind of awful. i think what happened post gorbachev in russia _ think what happened post gorbachev in russia was people gravitated ultimately towards the strongman, the strongman being the man who was in berlin _ the strongman being the man who was in berlin when he didn't send the tanks _ in berlin when he didn't send the tanksand~ — in berlin when he didn't send the tanks and. not even as the head of

the kgb. _ tanks and. not even as the head of the kgb, just a junior officer. now he is _ the kgb, just a junior officer. now he is one — the kgb, just a junior officer. now he is one of— the kgb, just a junior officer. now he is one of the most important people in— he is one of the most important people in the world and a dictator and trying — people in the world and a dictator and trying to recreate a kind of cross _ and trying to recreate a kind of cross between zara's and stalinism. it cross between zara's and stalinism. it seems _ cross between zara's and stalinism. it seems that many in russia are ok with that _ it seems that many in russia are ok with that because the trauma — i don't _ with that because the trauma — i don't know— with that because the trauma — i don't know what the west could have done _ don't know what the west could have done in _ don't know what the west could have done in my— don't know what the west could have done. in my podcast this week, martin— done. in my podcast this week, martin walker, who wrote a biography of gorbachev, new in 1991 there was a recession— of gorbachev, new in 1991 there was a recession in america and in britain — a recession in america and in britain in _ a recession in america and in britain. in western europe. what was needed _ britain. in western europe. what was needed was _ britain. in western europe. what was needed was a marshall plan. who knew what was _ needed was a marshall plan. who knew what was needed was outside governance to help people? it said and alcoholic name boris yeltsin around _ and alcoholic name boris yeltsin around the country into the ground. it around the country into the ground. it was _ around the country into the ground. it was very— around the country into the ground. it was very ideologically pinch on the west that the free market...

would win and what sort out russia. you just needed the anointing. crosstalk not backed up by... crosstalk not backedu- b ...~ . crosstalk notbackedu- b ...~ . ., not backed up by... which has laid this foundation _ not backed up by... which has laid this foundation for _ not backed up by... which has laid this foundation for some _ not backed up by... which has laid this foundation for some of - not backed up by... which has laid this foundation for some of what . this foundation for some of what we're seeing in ukraine and in putin's rain, i guess you call it. leaving that aside, let's talk about something else which is unfinished business. michael, overto you, iraq. this is a massive over supplication. to me down in flames if you like. —— shoot me down. what extent is the power of the militias, a straightforward legacy of the way, not so much the invasion was conducted, but the occupation? you can trace it — conducted, but the occupation? you can trace it all— conducted, but the occupation? you can trace it all the way back, and when _ can trace it all the way back, and when i _ can trace it all the way back, and when i was — can trace it all the way back, and when i was talking about totalitarianism, the reason i can say that— totalitarianism, the reason i can say that with real conviction is that— say that with real conviction is

that i— say that with real conviction is that i was— say that with real conviction is that i was in the day saddam hussein's _ that i was in the day saddam hussein's regime disappeared. people were walking around as if they were hallucinating. adult people, people who had _ hallucinating. adult people, people who had lived in previous decades, not kids _ who had lived in previous decades, not kids. they did not believe he was gone — not kids. they did not believe he was gone. they actually didn't believe it. there was never a plan, and its— believe it. there was never a plan, and it's been— believe it. there was never a plan, and it's been the curse of that country — and it's been the curse of that count . �* ... and it's been the curse of that count . �* ,., ., and it's been the curse of that count . �* ., , and it's been the curse of that count .�* ., , ., , country. but some of this goes back. you can't state _ country. but some of this goes back. you can't state at _ country. but some of this goes back. you can't state at all _ country. but some of this goes back. you can't state at all to _ country. but some of this goes back. you can't state at all to the - you can't state at all to the invasion. this is partly reflective of the complexity of iraq. crosstalk wonderfulword, _ of the complexity of iraq. crosstalk wonderful word, but _ of the complexity of iraq. crosstalk wonderful word, but there _ of the complexity of iraq. crosstalk wonderful word, but there was - of the complexity of iraq. crosstalk wonderful word, but there was an - wonderful word, but there was an intelligent and russia as well. they need help— intelligent and russia as well. they need help because russian intellectuals want to read poetry and think— intellectuals want to read poetry and think about politics. they don't want _ and think about politics. they don't want to— and think about politics. they don't want to have to do it. i think if

there — want to have to do it. i think if there had _ want to have to do it. i think if there had been a well organised governance structure for the first five years — governance structure for the first five years after the overthrow of saddam. — five years after the overthrow of saddam, and easing the country towards — saddam, and easing the country towards some kind of political stability. _ towards some kind of political stability, we have been much better off. stability, we have been much better off thats— stability, we have been much better off. that's what i'm talking about. what _ off. that's what i'm talking about. what we're — off. that's what i'm talking about. what we're seeing today... very specifically, is the shi'ite majority. i ran —— iran used to have its trips— majority. i ran —— iran used to have its trips down... majority. i ran -- iran used to have its trips down. . .— its trips down... crosstalk that's what _ its trips down... crosstalk that's what the _ its trips down... crosstalk that's what the fighting - its trips down... crosstalk that's what the fighting is i its trips down... crosstalk - that's what the fighting is about. there was an election four that's what the fighting is about. there was an electior_ there was an election four years auo, there was an election four years aao, and there was an election four years ago. and they've _ there was an election four years ago, and they've never - there was an election four years ago, and they've never been - there was an election four yearsl ago, and they've never been able there was an election four years - ago, and they've never been able to seek that _ ago, and they've never been able to seek that parliament. but my point is, and _ seek that parliament. but my point is, and i_ seek that parliament. but my point is, and i do — seek that parliament. but my point is, and i do disagree with you, bronwen. _ is, and i do disagree with you, bronwen, these problems could have

been _ bronwen, these problems could have been... could have been put into less extreme if there had actually been _ less extreme if there had actually been governance as part of the... do been governance as part of the. .. do i been governance as part of the... dc i have been governance as part of the... i have time to? been governance as part of the... tip i have time to? five years, six years of this wonderful thing called governance. you can'tjust wash it in for five years. this is a phenomenally complicated country, and to try to create something that will allow the minorities there to be protected while others win, you've got decades, generations of work there. it’s you've got decades, generations of work there-— work there. it's true but... crosstalk _ crosstalk the civil war that began had exactly the same _ the civil war that began had exactly the same at these pictures came out, and att— the same at these pictures came out, and all these people in abu ghraib that were — and all these people in abu ghraib that were sent into al-anda in trad _ that were sent into al-qaeda in iran. �* ., , , . that were sent into al-qaeda in ira.�* ., ,, . �*

iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm dis-cutin iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm disputing the — iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm disputing the magical _ iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm disputing the magical use - iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm disputing the magical use of. iraq. i'm not disputing that, i'm| disputing the magical use of the words governance? taste disputing the magical use of the words governance?— disputing the magical use of the words governance? we have literally minute left- — words governance? we have literally minute left. we _ words governance? we have literally minute left. we don't _ words governance? we have literally minute left. we don't appear - words governance? we have literally minute left. we don't appear to - words governance? we have literally| minute left. we don't appear to have got one, but no one has walked away. you can't call that progress but it's not bad. it may be within reach. a lot of this depends on what happens in america, and america is heading for a really unpredictable time. but no one's walking away. bind time. but no one's walking away. and that's the best _ time. but no one's walking away. and that's the best hope. germany is still part of that process, along with the members of the united security council.— with the members of the united security council. sometimes it's aood security council. sometimes it's good if there's _ security council. sometimes it's good if there's not _ security council. sometimes it's good if there's not too - security council. sometimes it's good if there's not too much - good if there's not too much attention— good if there's not too much attention on— good if there's not too much attention on this _ good if there's not too much attention on this talk. - good if there's not too much attention on this talk.- good if there's not too much attention on this talk. well there's len on attention on this talk. well there's plenty on it _ attention on this talk. well there's plenty on it next — attention on this talk. well there's plenty on it next week,. _ attention on this talk. well there's plenty on it next week,. bronwen, j plenty on it next week,. bronwen, stefanie and michael. thank you very much. goodbye.

hello. the weather has been changing during today. we've seen things starting to turn more unsettled — something of a pincer movement, really. we've seen these shower clouds down to the south starting to introduce some pretty hefty downpours into some southern areas. also a stripe of cloud working in from the west in association with this. this will be our weekend weather maker, an area of low pressure that will turn to the west of the uk, throwing frontal systems in our direction. where you're close to the centre of the low, across western areas, that's where you'll see the lion's share of the rain, especially northern ireland and southwest scotland. this chart shows rainfall accumulations we're expecting through the weekend. the deep blue and green colours show that parts of northern ireland and southwest scotland could see 50 to maybe

close to 100 mm of rain, which could cause some disruption. so, spells of heavy, thundery rain, always wettest in the west, and it will often be quite windy — dare i say it will feel quite autumnal. so, as we go through this evening and tonight, we'll see heavy rain developing across parts of northern ireland and southwest scotland, this rain becoming quite persistent. some rain into west wales, southwest of england, the odd shower elsewhere. some dry weather, some clear spells, but it will be a pretty mild night — 13—16 degrees. then, into tomorrow, a soggy start for much of northern ireland, that rain getting into southwest scotland at times also perhaps into west wales and the far southwest of england. the odd sharp shower is likely to break out through northern england, parts of the midlands, east anglia, down to the southeast. could be some flashes of lightning, some rumbles of thunder contained within those hit—and—miss showers with spells of sunshine in between. highs of 24 for london, butjust 16 in belfast, stuck under the cloud with the outbreaks of rain. during saturday night, we're watching the southwest of england and wales. see the white lines,

the isobars squeezing together a swathe of really strong winds here, particularly around some of the coasts. could be gusts of around 45—50 mph, so a windy start to sunday. outbreaks of rain continue to drift northeastwards, more wet weatherfor time in northern ireland, more especially the southwest of scotland. drier for northeast scotland and southeast england, but blustery in the north and still quite windy down towards the southwest. but it will feel warm where you get some sunshine — highs of 25 degrees in norwich, more like 19 for glasgow and belfast.

this is bbc news. the headlines... voting closes on whether liz truss or rishi sunak will become the next prime minister. the winner will be announced on monday. russian energy giant gazpro says it won't resume gas supplies to europe tomorrow as planned and blames an oil leak. a review finds dame cressida dick 'felt intimidated' into stepping down as metropolitan police commissioner after an ultimatum from london mayor sadiq kahn. a florida court releases a detailed inventory of material seized during the fbi's search of donald trump's maralago home. fears of food shortages in pakistan as nearly half of the country's crops have been destroyed by the floods. the un warns many more children could die.