tonight at ten... interest rates rise to their highest level for m years as the bank of england warns the uk may already be in recession. interest rates now stand at 2.25%, adding pressure to household budgets across the uk. this evening we'll be looking ahead to the chancellor's so—called mini budget, which he is unveiling tomorrow. also on the programme... the russians fleeing their country to avoid president putin's partial mobilisation of military reservists to fight in ukraine. translation: when i refused to take the call-u translation: when i refused to take the call-up papers. — translation: when i refused to take the call-up papers, an _ translation: when i refused to take the call-up papers, an official- the call—up papers, an official said, "suit yourself but you will be sent to prison for ten years."

more money for social care in england to help free up nhs beds, but critics say it's just tinkering around the edges. iranian police and anti—government protesters clash in tehran for a seventh day in the worst unrest for years after the death of a young woman in police custody. and launching the see monster, the latest project in a festival of creativity in the uk, costing the taxpayer £120 million. is it worth it? and coming up in the sport on the bbc news channel — england's cricketers convincingly crushed in karachi as pakistan level the t20 series with a ten—wicket win. good evening. interest rates have risen to their highest level for 14 years, heaping extra costs on mortgage holders, credit card

users and businesses. the governor of the bank of england warned that the uk economy may already be in recession. rates have risen by 0.5% today — the seventh hike in a row as the bank tries to curb inflation. interest rates now stand at 2.25%. our economics editor faisal islam has the details. for about a decade and a half, british homeowners, workers and business owners have become used to extremely low interest rates. this is now at an end. in nantwich in cheshire, the ice cream farm has benefited from investing millions at low interest rates. it's always encouraged investment, because it's always been at a low through this period of investment that we've had. this food tourism business is now having to adjust at a time when consumers have little spare cash, and costs are rocketing. wherever the base rate goes, obviously our business goes. and it can be hugely drastic to it.

you know, it could actually finish the business, depending how far it gets. and i think everybody is in the same situation. the bank of england have once again put up interest rates. today, another half a percentage point rise, to 2.25%. it's back up to levels not seen since 2008, affecting the price of loans across the economy, with rates now heading back towards more normal levels seen before the iii—year low rate era of the financial crisis and pandemic. the bank wants to put a lid on rising prices by slowing the economy with these rate rises. but inflation is still set to remain above 10% for some months, and rates nearly went up by even more today. and that's the challenge. the bank now believes that we're already in a recession that began in april, and yet it is increasing the cost of borrowing in a way that could make that recession worse. why?

because inflation is super—high, and even with the tempering of the gas and energy prices by the government, that could remain so. so the question is, how high will rates go? certainly to 3%, but 4% or even 5% are not out of the question. the bank of england probably started too late in raising interest rates. they left the first rise until december and were quite slow, and have been quite slow in raising them since then. so we're not actually getting much downward pressure on inflation at the moment from interest rate changes. on the screens of this broker in st albans, the impact of all of this already hitting the mortgage markets. one lender's service levels went up to i think it was a0 working days to get an offer out. now, to get a mortgage offer out is normally around ten to 15 working days. rates are changing on a daily basis. lenders are pulling products on a daily basis.

if you give a rate today, you don't know if it will be gone tomorrow. and when the mortgage market is affected, then so is the housing market. it is inevitable when rates go up like this. and faisaljoins me now. tomorrow we have the so—called mini budget so what can we expect? this is a urowth budget so what can we expect? this is a growth plan _ budget so what can we expect? ti 3 is a growth plan for a budget so what can we expect? ti 1 is a growth plan for a new era, budget so what can we expect? t1i1 is a growth plan for a new era, we are told by the chancellor, and it will feel and sound a bit like a budget but it's not actually a budget, we will not get the red box. we have had one of the major announcements already, unusually, this afternoon, which is a tax cut of sorts because it is actuallyjust cutting what was raised only in april, for a national insurance, i.25% april, for a national insurance, 1.25% was put on both employers and employees, national insurance taken off by november pandit what will that mean in terms of cash? for

workers, 28 million workers, roughly about £330 each but it's important to note it is i% of salary roughly speaking soap more if you earn more. and for the employers, you're looking at about £9,500 on average for 960,000 employers. total cost of over £14 billion which will be borrowed alongside tens of billions of other money borrowed for other tax cuts and also some of the energy plan rescue. in total you have a significant amount of borrowing that will not be formally announced but at this very moment, partially because of what we have heard from the bank of england, the markets that lend money to the uk have been charging sums we have not seen for some time. charging sums we have not seen for some time-— charging sums we have not seen for some time. you can get plenty more information on today's rates rise on bbc news 0nline, that's bbc.co.uk/news, and by using the bbc news app.

many russian citizens are trying to flee their country to escape the military mobilization announced by vladimir putin yesterday. tickets for direct flights between russia and serbia have sold out. president putin's order to mobilize 300,000 russian reservists to fight in ukraine led to protests yesterday, at which more than 1000 people were reportedly arrested. 0ur russia editor steve rosenberg reports from moscow. called up by the kremlin, they set off for ukraine. russian reservists, now part of vladimir putin's war. there were scenes like these across russia. a sense of shock at the first mobilisation here since world war ii, and apprehension at what lies ahead. child cries. "daddy," cries a child,

as another group departs. but there was anger too, outside a recruitment office. the protester says, world war ii was a real war, but this one is just politics. protesting in russia can be dangerous. mikhail was detained at an anti—mobilisation protest in moscow. he says that down at the station, police tried to give him call—up papers. translation: when i refused to take the call-up papers, - an official said, "suit yourself, but you'll be sent to prison for ten years." she said it was against the law to refuse the draft. the public�*s being told the motherland is in danger. the message from the russian authorities to the russian people is we had to call up the reservists, the west is trying to destroy us, nato is waging a war against us —

this is a fight for russia's future. but some russians have now concluded that for them there is no future here. at russia's border with georgia, the queue of cars was unusually long as some russian men of fighting age tried to leave the country. i heard some speeches... viktor has decided to leave russia because of the call—up. viktor is not his real name. he's asked us to hide his identity. there is a choice, for example, you go and you kill innocent people or you go to jail. i decided i don't want to make this choice. i'm better to live my life somehow, i don't know, from abroad. up until now many russians have tried to block out what's happening in ukraine and get on with their lives. the call—up of hundreds of thousands of reservists has changed that. reality is starting to hit home.

steve rosenberg, bbc news, moscow. russia's conduct in ukraine has been strongly condemned at a special meeting of the un security council. the american secretary of state, antony blinken, said president putin had shown contempt for international law and the world must not let him get away with it. his comments come as the ukrainian military continues to make gains in the east of the country. the city of kupiansk is one of the areas recently taken back from the russians, but as our senior international correspondent 0rla guerin reports, it's still not secure. this is kupiansk. ukraine calls it "liberated territory". during our visit with an army escort, it doesn't sound that way. shelling. every few minutes, more shelling.

and it's soon very clear that war isn't far away. explosion. shouting. come on, come on, come on! well, we've just had to run and take cover in the building. there has been what sounded like heavy incoming fire. it's pretty clear that the russians are continuing to target kupiansk, even though they've been pushed out. dangerous. understood, understood — they want us away from the blast, yeah. a few minutes ago, we heard the russian helicopters doing some shelling, and it was nearby us, so we need to go to save your life and going from there, this city. is this happening a lot in kupiansk, a lot of attacks? yes, yes. every day, kupiansk is under russian

shellings and russian artillery. quickly, quickly. now ukrainian forces are back, looking for signs of life. they are few and far between. the russians brought destruction here but some don't have a bad word to say about their former occupiers. "they treated people normally," 0leksander tells me. "there was no torture, nothing like that. "for us, it was no different with them or without them. "they were here, but it feels like they weren't. "they came and then they left." he says most here stand with ukraine. either way, they are now caught in the middle. with shelling back and forth.

i asked liliya how she copes. "i do nothing", she says. "i stay home and pray that nothing hits the house". ukraine's victory in this city is messy and incomplete. there are untold stories of suffering here and some believe, sooner or later, the russians will be back. 0rla guerin, bbc news, kupiansk. five british men who were captured by russian—backed forces in ukraine have arrived back in the uk after they were suddenly released. four had been fighting with ukrainian armed forces when they were detained. the fifth had been providing humanitarian assistance. they were released last night as part of a prisoner exchange between russia and ukraine. emma vardy has this report.

we just want to let everyone know that we're now out of the danger zone and we're on our way home to ourfamilies... a ticket to freedom, after months as prisoners. thanks to everyone that's been supporting us. it's really muchly appreciated. at heathrow this morning, the moment theirfamilies had thought might never come. for aiden aslin, it meant a long—awaited reunion with his ukrainian fiancee, which she called "a miracle". if you're watching this, it means that we've surrendered... aiden aslin and shaun pinner had been held by russian—backed separatists since their unit was forced to surrender in april. they'd both moved to ukraine four years ago and joined the ukrainian armed forces, and had been helping to defend the country during the russian invasion. but they were accused of being mercenaries and told they faced the death penalty. liz truss called it "a sham trial

in a kangaroo court". they'd been held alongside three other british men, john harding, andrew hill and dylan healy, who were also released today. last night, saudi arabia confirmed it had been involved in negotiations, along with ukrainian officials, to secure their freedom, assistance which was welcomed by the british government, as they were flown first to riyadh, before heading back to the uk. these were members of the ukrainian armed forces and of course it is the responsibility of the ukrainian government to deal with the members of their armed forces. we are very, very grateful for the work they've put in and very grateful for the support of the saudis in the logistics around this. aiden aslin arrived back here in his home town of newark this afternoon. his sudden release had come as a surprise to many people here that know him. his family have told me that at times, they worried they may never see him alive again. aiden�*s mother angela wood told the bbc the way her son had been

treated was inhumane. during their months of captivity, the men had been shown on russian tv as part of propaganda efforts by the kremlin and had been told that the death penalty by firing squad would be carried out. their surprise release came as part of a larger prisoner exchange between ukraine and russia. thank you very much. the smiles hiding the full extent of what they endured. emma vardy, bbc news, newark. the new health secretary has set out her plans to improve access to the nhs and social care in england. therese coffey said there was too much variation in the care people receive across the country. she announced a £500 million social care discharge fund for the winter, to help free up beds in hospitals. she acknowledged that there was a shortage of carers and promised £15 million to help employ more workers from abroad. and she said pension rules would be changed to try to stop doctors from leaving the profession. but labour accused the government

of still having no plan to meet the scale of the challenge, whilst a union representing doctors said the government was just "tinkering around the edges". 0ur health editor, hugh pym, spent a day at warwick hospital. 0ne gentleman waiting over 38 hours. it's eight o'clock, the first bed meeting of the day. with patients stuck waiting in a&e, they have to find beds and get those who are medically fit back home. we're opening frailty assessments, so we know three patients who have the highest length of time waiting in the department will be moving out straight away. we can manage to bypass the emergency department... the frailty assessment unit frees space in a&e. good morning, julia. the first patient in isjulia. she's 94. i seem to have gone downhill rapidly. the unit aims to fast—track elderly patients straight to the correct specialist consultants. 0n the ward, big decisions on who's well enough to leave the hospital.

we've put him down as home today. we just need to make sure the care's in place. there are three patients who are medically fit to go home. if that happens, then she will be going today. if social care and transport can be booked, that's three free beds on this ward. # happy birthday, dear terry! terry is 90 today. he needs an ambulance to get home and then a specialist carer to administer medication. we think we can get you out today. over on the orthopaedic ward is marjorie. we're from warwickshire fire and rescue service. we've come to take you home. although medically fit to go home, it's taken over two weeks to arrange appropriate care for her. a lift was easier to organise. an initiative with the fire and rescue service involves transporting patients and checking how safe their home is. hello, everyone. with another bed free, rachel has the lunchtime update. at the moment, we're minus 44 beds. it is tricky.

as we can see, we have 12 patients waiting in the emergency department, waiting for a bed, so every discharge counts today. it's nearly lunchtime. julia has been assessed and doctors decide she needs to stay. she's got a full package of care, but the daughter's raised some concerns... sadly, julia has since passed away. her family gave permission for us to include her. we do have an ageing population throughout the country. and also, covid's led to quite a lot of people becoming frailer. it's september, and the hospital's nearly full. in fact, it's been like that for several weeks now. currently, there are 60 patients in this hospital who are medically fit to leave, but because their home care package isn't in place, they can't be discharged. it's just gone four. we are now at break even, so we can bed everything that we are predicted to take. a request to take up to two extra ambulances per hour is expected.

back on the ward, its home time for terry. just in time for your birthday. i'm 21 again. with terry on his way, another bed is free. there's no flex in the system. with each day that passes, every bed counts and winter is looming. hugh pym, bbc news, warwick. so, tackling the issues in social care is key to solving some of the big problems within the nhs. 0ur social affairs editor alison holt has been meeting carers in the peak district to see the challenges they face. you'll have to remind me, harry, to go and get some fuel in, because we're nearly out. this is the hope valley in the derbyshire peak district, beautiful but in places remote. care workers like susanne and harry drive many miles each week to support people in their own homes. it cost me £60 last week to fill up my tank. you're kidding me. care staff here get £10.60 an hour, then extra money for petrol, but with rising prices,

theyjust can't compete with other employers like supermarkets. staff shortages are acute in a job where they have to reach their clients, whatever the weather, day and night. if i had ten, 15, 20 more carers, i could give them a job and take the pressure off the local authority and provide care packages for these people that are stuck in hospital waiting. how desperate are people for care? absolutely desperate. i've had people of the phone that have rung us direct, in tears. in a place like this, you see all the pressures on the care system coming together. there is huge demand. people want to be looked after in their own home, but they simply can't find the staff to meet that demand. it's estimated there are currently 165,000 vacancies in care in england alone. many who work in the sector say the £500 million announced for social care today will help

through winter, but it doesn't tackle more deep—rooted problems. yet this support is vital for people like vernon, who needs four visits a day. you want to spend a night in here on your own in bed, when you can't sleep. you're waiting for that door to go, knowing it's them coming in. theirs is not an easy job they do, you know? you have to clean an old man like me down and clean him and wash him and put him back together again. no. they deserve good money. this care company is part of a larger group looking after about 1000 people. the government says more money is on its way. the boss here wants to know when. if we invest immediately in social care, allied to a strategy- for social care and older people in particular, then we have - a pathway to a brighter future.

and ensuring many people want to work and care will be essential for that future. alison holt, bbc news. joining me now is our health editor, hugh pym. how much difference does that government plan they've announced today make?— today make? there is a feeling amonust today make? there is a feeling amongst health _ today make? there is a feeling amongst health organisation i amongst health organisation including think tanks that the intentions set out by therese coffey are welcome but also a feeling that there's not much substance at this stage to back that up. let's look at that £500 million funding for social care in england, designed to get people who are medically fit more rapidly out of hospital to free up beds. well, it's actually restoring a scheme that was in place throughout the pandemic until earlier this year. half of the money we are told is going to come from lower national insurance contributions paid by nhs employers, the rest from savings, and there is a worry in the nhs tonight they may be asked to make more efficiency

savings to pay for that. then there are the doctor's' pension changes designed to prevent doctors retiring early because of tax burdens. they will take time to implement and time is precious now. winter is fast approaching. intense pressure is expected in the months ahead and this government has had several years now to try to tackle these long—standing problems but at hugh pym, thank you. the first week of october looks set to be hit by travel disruption after a third strike date was announced on the railways. the rmt union says 40,000 of its members will walk out on saturday october 8th as part of a long—running dispute overjobs, pay and working conditions. two more rail strikes involving train drivers are already planned for saturday 1st and wednesday 5th of october. 0pposition parties, as well as some conservative mps, have strongly criticised the government's decision to lift the ban on fracking in england. the practice to extract shale gas from rock underground was stopped in 2019.

fracking is controversial because of its association with minor earthquakes. moratoriums in scotland and wales remain in place, while a ban has been proposed in northern ireland. protestors have fought running battles with police in the iranian capital tehran, as demonstrations over the death of a young woman in police custody continue for a seventh day. internet access has been severely restricted in a bid to stop the unrest from spreading. the protests have spread to almost every province in the country. rana rahimpour, from the bbc�*s persian service, has this report. women across iran are setting their hijabs on fire. they are tired of being beaten up by the morality police for not observing strict islamic dress code. their anger was sparked by the death of this woman, mahsa amini. she wasjust 22.

she was arrested by the morality police in tehran earlier this month. they said she wasn't wearing the mandatory hijab properly. they say she died of a heart condition, but eyewitnesses say she was beaten up in the police van. her father told me she was a healthy young woman with no medical condition. translation: i still cannot believe she's dead. - i don't want to believe she's not alive. iranian state media are saying she had health conditions before, but that's a lie. the medical report was full of lies. the government has cut the internet in much of the country so it's hard to get accurate information at the moment, but last time they did this, three years ago, they killed hundreds of people. with thousands of people protesting across the country, there are fears that far more might be killed this time. protests are quickly spreading across the country and they are no longerjust about clothing —

it's about regime change. now, men, next to women, are standing together, chanting "death to the dictator". but for iran, change comes slowly. the iranian president, who is at the un, insists that hijab is a personal choice. but even in new york he demanded that the world—renowned broadcaster christiane amanpour wears a headscarffor an interview. this was refused. but the same refusal in iran is costing lives. rana rahimpour, bbc news. football, wales have lost their penultimate game before this winter's world cup. they were beaten 2-1 winter's world cup. they were beaten 2—1 by belgium in the nation's league. kevin de bruyne put the belgians ahead and set up their second goal as they dominated the first half in brussels. wales scored shortly after the break but they

couldn't find an equaliser. it's called unboxed — a celebration of creativity across the united kingdom. this is see monster in weston—super—mare, the latest free project to open to the public this weekend. the festival began in march and is costing the taxpayer £120 million. now the head of an influential parliamentary committee says it's a potentially monumental waste of money and has called for the national audit office to investigate. but the man behind the festival insists it is bold and ambitious, and value for money. here's our culture editor, katie razzall. see monster looms over weston—super—mare, a decommissioned gas platform turned into an art installation about the environment. no one really ever sees these structures close up and i was just struck by the sheer scale of it. martin green is giving me an exclusive tour of the delayed project, the latest from his unboxed festival which celebrates british creativity.

but unboxed has cost £120 million of taxpayers' money and is underfire. have you felt under attack? there is a healthy and natural cynicism to something new, something different. i know we're all very proud of it. a festival to showcase britain was initially announced in 2018 by the then prime minister theresa may. the timing saw it dubbed the festival of brexit — a description that was always denied by those involved. ten projects have been opening since march. like this story of human life called about us, here in hull. unboxed have an ambitious aim to reach 66 million people. today, the chair of an influential parliamentary committee has written to the public spending watchdog, the national audit office, questioning how many visitors the festival's actually had and asking the nao to investigate whether it's been value for money. well, we saw the warning signs. the red lights were flashing on the dashboard of this, and unfortunately, it seems we've been proven right by that.

the fact is that this has been potentially a monumental waste of money and actually has made very little impact in the country as a whole. ultimately, these decisions are signed off by politicians. therefore, politicians need to take the blame. 0n the weston—super—mare seafront, there's certainly interest in this evolving north sea rig, and that's true around the country too, says martin green. the government wanted to invest in creativity. the future ofjobs and skills in this country is around creativity and the creative industries. we wanted to do things big and bold and ambitious, and that is what we've done. and i think that's absolutely value for money. but there are people who are saying they haven't been extraordinary, they haven't been bold. nobody knows about unboxed. well, we've seen visitors in the millions. you can see behind you — i think this is extraordinary and bold. it's literally not been done in the world before. 0fficial visitor numbers for unboxed will be published next month. only then can we judge whether it has been a success or should have been left in its box. katie razzall, bbc news,

weston—super—mare. time for a look at the weather.