into the city of london to sell at market. our correspondent anjana gadgill was there this is the annual sheep drive in the city of london, where a flock of sheep herded from one side of london bridge across the river thames to the other. back in medieval times, the sound of sheep bleating and hooves trotting on london bridge would have been familiar as farmers drove their sheep across london bridge into the city of london to sell them at market. those people called freemen and did not have to pay the toll to cross the bridge in recognition of their status as local traders. it is not entirely sure when the practice ended, but certainly by the beginning of the 20th century it was no longer happening, as motor vehicles had taken over instead, but ten years ago the tradition was revived

mainly down to a campaign, a charity called the campaign for wool. the patron is his majesty king charles iii. nowadays, it's reallyjust symbolic, done as a charity fundraiser. any event of this nature in the city is going to attract a flock of people to come and watch. if you are in the city of london, you can expect to get lambushed by a herd of sheep. now it's time for a look at the weather with darren. the wind continuing to strengthen, cloud across the uk, a short spell of rain that moves away from scotland and northern ireland this evening, the wind direction changes, a northerly wind will bring in some showers. not quite as cold as last night, temperatures in eastern scotland and north—east england down to 7 degrees. by the time we get to

tomorrow morning, the weather front bringing the rain band is in the english channel, and we have this run of much stronger northerly winds across the uk bringing colder air all the way from iceland, a mixture of sunshine and showers, pushed in on those very brisk winds, particularly frequent showers, northern scotland down those north sea coasts, but some further west as well. the winds are going to be very strong and gusty, perhaps touching gale force in northern scotland, temperatures struggling to make double figures, 16 in the far south, but elsewhere feeling colder in the strong wind. hello, this is bbc news, i'm lewis vaughanjones, and these are the headlines. labour opens its annual conference as its leader, sir keir starmer, prepares to set out the dividing lines between his party and the new conservative government. he tells the bbc he would reverse the government's cut to top income tax rate. voting is under way

in italy's general election, with opinion polls suggesting victory for the far right, which would usher in the country's most right—wing government since world war ii. a man has died after a fire in a block of flats in bristol. eight others are currently being treated in hospital while authorities try to find alternative accomadation for residents. hurricane fiona slams into canada's eastern coast with heavy rains and huge waves, washing away homes and cutting power to tens of thousands of people. and there are warnings of a potential threat to life and property as super typhoon noru makes landfall in the philippines with forecasted winds of up to 200 km/h. now on bbc news, frank gardner looks at the war in ukraine, and how the country's recent gains on the battlefield has provoked a nuclear threat from russia.

the battles for ukraine are raging. this war is not slowing down — if anything, it's intensifying. because neither russia nor ukraine are giving up. they are pouring men and weapons into this conflict. but something has changed. ukrainian forces have gone on the offensive. they've managed to recapture a big chunk of land in the north—east that was taken by russia in the spring. and the footage we're seeing suggests this is anything but an orderly regrouping or tactical withdrawal by the russian military. i think the russians, at this point, don't understand why they're fighting this war,

they're not motivated to fight this war, and, arguably, they're fighting a war of liberation against the people that doesn't want to be liberated. a lot of people thought that this war was maybe becoming a kind of long, grinding artillery duel — one that russia would eventually win by simply outnumbering the ukrainians and wearing them down. but the ukrainians, with their sudden battlefield success, have surprised the world again. and russia is responding with nuclear threats. translation: we will certainly use all the means at our disposal. - this is not a bluff. so the big question now is, can ukraine still win this war without provoking a wider conflict between nato and russia? i'm going to try and break this down and explain how ukraine achieved such a success on the battlefield that it spooked president putin into taking desperate measures and issuing desperate threats. but first, let's just recap.

it's been more than 200 days now since russia invaded ukraine. after initially driving back the russians from the gates of the capital, kyiv, things were not looking too good for the ukrainians. russian forces swiftly occupied around a fifth of the country. during the spring and over the summer, those russian forces have been slowly conquering the eastern and southern parts. but in early september, all of that changed. ukraine achieved a stunning breakthrough in the north—east, around its second city of kharkiv. in the space ofjust a few days, its forces recaptured over 8,000 square kilometers.

that's more territory than russia has managed to take since april. tanks, uniforms and ammunition were all left abandoned in a hurry, as the russians fled, in some cases right across the border. with winter approaching, this was exactly the morale boost that ukraine needed. it's also been a timely reminder to its western backers that all theirfinancial and military support has not been in vain. hanging over all of this is, of course, the threat of nuclear weapons. translation: in washington, london and brussels, - they are directly prodding kyiv to shift military actions to our territory. they openly say that russia must be defeated on the battlefield and subsequently deprived of political, economic, cultural and any other sovereignty — and ransacked. the territorial integrity of our homeland, our independence

and ourfreedom will be provided, i will stress once again, with all the means at our disposal. those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind can turn their way. essentially, the problem here is that the more success ukraine has on the battlefield, the greater the risk that president putin will find he has to resort to some drastic measure, such as using tactical nuclear weapons. these are small battlefield weapons that would still generate radiation and a mushroom cloud. one of the people who has spent time in russia and ukraine right at the beginning of the war is carrie davies from the bbc. carrie, is he bluffing here, or is he being real? now, whether or not president putin is bluffing or not, we've heard him talk about nuclear weapons before. russia likes to remind the world that it has nuclear weapons. whether it's willing to use them or not is really uncertain. there's a lot of

factors at play here. in terms of what could happen if president putin decided to take that next step, many people think that that could end up being political suicide and international diplomatic suicide as well. and also in terms of how much of a difference this would make on the front line in the war, it's not certain that that's going to make a big difference either. the big concern, however, is that president putin seems to have got himself into a corner now. he's got out of corners before. but the big worry and the big question is, is he going to take this extra step further? it would be a very big gamble. but we don't know whether or not he's willing to roll the dice. is this linked to the un general assembly in new york, or is it more to do with the fact that ukraine is winning on the battlefield at the moment? because of ukraine's movements in taking territory back and having success on the battlefield, that's thought to be the reason why president putin has announced that there will be referenda in four different states in ukraine. this is ukrainian territory that has been taken, seized by russia, and they will be voting about whether to be part of the russian federation, and that that is really crucially

important, because in russia's military doctrine, it says that you can only use nuclear weapons if the state of russia is under threat. now, if russia then says that these areas are considered to be russian states, then they could argue, in theory, that nuclear weapons are something that's a reasonable response. now, whether they would take that step, that is still a dramatic step, and it's certainly not what the west views these areas as — they still view this very much as ukraine. so whether or not that would be an accepted argument, but you wonder whether or not president putin, drawing this connection between the referendum and the fact that he's talking about nuclear weapons, that could be a key part here. i mean, you could argue that crimea, which they consider to be russia, the rest of the world considers to be ukraine, that's come under attack, quite severe attack, and they haven't responded yet with nuclear weapons. there's also been incidents that have happened inside of russia that russia has blamed on ukraine,

too. and again, in places like belgorod, russia has not responded with nuclear weapons. but at this stage, it's looking like president putin is feeling a little bit more potentially on the back foot — notjust because of what's going on inside ukraine, but because of the sort of responses he's getting from other international leaders. he seemed to have a very chilly response from china, india have also come back and pushed back against the war in ukraine, and so has turkey. so in terms of his international standing in the world, president putin might feel more under threat than before. one of the things that i find really striking is that he seems so far to have carried the bulk of the russian population with him — at least that they haven't objected to this war. do you think that the mobilisation, the partial mobilisation announced just recently, is going to change that, is going to make this more unpopular? is it going to risk his position politically, putin? well, we saw some level of protest happening in some of the major

cities around russia after mobilisation was announced. but they are really low level at this stage, and that is because many people do feel like there's no point in protesting, because ultimately there's not going to be a massive overthrow. it's not legal to be protesting in russia at the moment. and people who are picked up off the streets that we saw, there were about 1,400 people picked up from st petersburg, moscow and other cities, they will be detained and if they are arrested again, that could mean that they get a jail sentence. so a lot of people don't want to risk this. some people just leave the country. now in terms of whether or not president putin can continue to bring people with him with mobilisation, i think it probably brings a lot more of this home to certain people. and i think there's a big concern that while at the moment this is partial mobilisation, many in russia are worried that it could expand. that's why we've heard lots of reports of people trying

to leave the country, or even a suggestion that some people are worried that men of military age could be stopped from leaving the country altogether. people are concerned about that. but, interestingly, russia is trying to push this narrative that they are not just fighting against ukraine, which of course, hasn't gone very successfully. they are saying they are fighting against the west. "this is nato we're fighting it. "so no wonder we weren't able to do what we wanted to do in the course of three days." "it's because the rest of the world is against us." and trying to create this atmosphere that the west is trying to break up russia, that is theirjustification, and they're trying to to encourage people through state tv, but also through general disinformation campaign to encourage the russian people to feel like they are under threat from the rest of the world and to unite as russia together. there is a popular misconception, i think mostly on social media, that putin is the problem, that if you could get rid of, or if he could be sidelined in a coup, then somehow the whole problem would go away. i don't think that's the case, because behind him you've got other hardliners like nikolai patrushev? yes, in terms of what the possible off—ramp is, in diplomatic terms, where this goes, as to why would president putin being removed and replaced by someone else, if the russian system is based on having a strong leader,

having someone who is a winner, it's unlikely that anyone that replaces putin is going to come in with a more sort of peaceful stance that will decide that they're going to back off away from ukraine. that will be quite a difficult position to start with, particularly given how much of a ramping—up of terminology, of discussion about war, how important this is for the russian identity, according to the state media. very difficult for anyone that comes in to replace president putin, in theory, would be able to start rowing all of that back and suggesting it wasn't the case. so what the alternatives are, yes, president putin has also got pressure from his own hardliners inside the kremlin, who will be encouraging him to go further, to push harder, and not to back away from ukraine. he's got a difficult balance to strike. so how exactly did the ukrainians break the stalemate? first, let's look at the strategy, because this really does appear to have caught the russian high command completely off guard. translation: this war, | which began with russia's occupation of crimea,

with an attempt to seize donbas, must end precisely there, in the liberated crimea, in the liberated cities of donbas, with our troops reaching the state border of ukraine. ukraine signaled very publicly that it was going on the offensive in the south around the city of kherson. russia responded by sending some of its best troops there to shore up its defenses. that left the north—east underdefended. knowing how the russians have struggled with logistics, the ukrainians identified two key factors — natural barriers like rivers and weak links in supply chains like bridges and storage facilities. then they started hitting these weak links with long—range precision missiles, to which the russians had no effective answer. now, any armed force depends on good logistics to work properly. but for an occupying force

especially, these are literally lifelines. 0nce those russian supply chains had been disrupted, ukraine worked towards surrounding and cutting off around 20,000 russian troops that had been dug in on the west bank of the river dnipro. the advice from the us military chiefs over the summer was, "look, this could take quite a long time, and it's only got a slim chance of success." but ukraine went ahead anyway. essentially, it was laying a trap that the russian high command walked right into. knowing that russia had redeployed troops to the south, the ukrainians chose their moment and struck in the north—east, capturing a key supply point in kupiansk and eventually the strategically important city of izyum, which russia had spent a lot of effort in capturing. they would rush to the front line, they would create chaos and confusion. they would do a hit—and—run tactic, not for the sake of actually engaging the enemy, but for the sake

of creating the impression among russian garrisons in those towns and villages that they are being encircled, that they are far behind the lines, they are getting isolated. so it disrupted their ability to go on. they did not waste time on storming cities in russian style and destroying them all. so they would pass them by, isolate the russian garrisons, and then move on to the next point that needs to be cut off and taken under control, so that russian units would be surrounded and basically isolated. i must submit that, even to us, to ukrainians who know a lot about our military, that was quite a surprise. nobody, i think, in the military, absolutely nobody expected this success, such a success. the operation effectively caused the whole of russia's kharkiv front to collapse, and it enabled ukraine

to recapture the whole region. more importantly, it demonstrated to the russians that ukraine has ways and means to take the fight to them. now, the kind of discipline and cooperation needed to pull off a manoeuvre like this doesn't happen by coincidence. when you talk to anyone in ukraine, they're clear they're going to win. they understand why they're fighting, in stark contrast to the russians. justin crump is a security analyst and a former british army officer. we have a physical component, which is what you've actually got. the moral component — do you understand why you're fighting? and the conceptual component, so how do you bring together everything to actually deliver a really impactful measure on the battlefield? they've obviously had a lot of physical equipment donations, and where they've had those, they've made good use of them. and i think it's that conceptual element that's really come to bear here, using what they've got in a really effective way to generate a very high tempo of activity against the russians. so they're moving fast, they went very deep into russian

lines very quickly, and the russians were overwhelmed, both in time to react and also in terms of space and where the ukrainians are in relation to them. so all of that together has really helped them drive this success. are they at risk of overstretch, of overreach? there is always a risk, overstretch is real, and i think you are always most vulnerable after an attack while you're reorganising, that's the best time for the enemy to strike you back. now, ukraine is very aware of that, they've been very clever about the terrain they've used in kharkiv. they've used the river actually to screen their advance and give them security. russia, i think already, as we know, not doing particularly well before this, and what they've shown in this conflict is they've never been able to make good use of mobile forces since the start. we didn't see any big breakthroughs in the donbas, really their big area of manoeuvre is the first week or two where they had that advantage of surprise. without that, they're struggling really to mount attacks even under much more favourable conditions,

than we're seeing here. so i think it's highly unlikely that russia will effectively counter—strike at this time, especially having taken the losses it has so far in this conflict. i mean, a quarter of the force that was engaged at the start is now dead — that is a staggering number. let alone the equipment losses. they're bringing forward reinforcements from russia, but their level of training is a fraction of what the ukrainians are getting. now, strategically, there's still a lot of space on the map. there's still a lot of other places that russia can do things, and this war is not over just because of the successes. ukraine is very aware of that, but goodness, are they buoyed up right now. we hear a lot about low morale in the russian ranks. is this exaggerated, or are you seeing reports of this as well? it is going very badly for the russians. the evidence of that is just visible when you look at the way they're living, the positions they've abandoned, the equipment they've abandoned. and i think most importantly of all, it underscores their lack of morale. and we talked about that moral component in warfare. i think the russians at this point don't understand why

they're fighting this war. they're not motivated to fight this war. and arguably, they're fighting a war of liberation against a people that doesn't want to be liberated by them. finally, what do you think is the next move by the russian high command? theyjust don't know where ukraine will strike next, having lost the initiative. so i think they'll be scrambling to hold on to what they have at this stage more than anything else. and it's a very dangerous position. i mean, there is a feeling with some people you speak to now that the war is over, ukraine has won, this is it. it obviously is not over. there's a lot of things that can still happen. the winter is coming — if the russians can hold on, that will change the dynamic on the battlefield somewhat. they are trying to bring forward reserves. and, of course, now does russia escalate this to the status of a war? western weapons have been absolutely key in turning this war more in ukraine's favour. this has been very much a war of artillery.

up until recently, russia's guns, rockets and missiles could reach a lot further than ukraine's. and that's allowed the russians to batter their way through the towns and villages of eastern ukraine, inflicting enormous damage on both soldiers and civilians alike. ukraine is still outgunned by its much larger neighbour, russia, but with western—supplied long range weapons, the fight is starting to look a lot more even than it was in early summer. so, as you can imagine, this has had a huge effect on morale in both armies. so every summer, rush—hour traffic comes back to kyiv, and all of us, we are every year, we are sincerely shocked. lesia vasylenko is a ukrainian member of parliament, and she was actually, when i talked to her, she was stuck in kyiv rush—hour traffic. how long can ukraine sustain this resistance to this invasion? 0n the 24th of february, the whole of the ukrainian nation breathed in, and i don't think that we started breathing out yet. maybe tiny, tiny little portions with the advances of the ukrainian

army in the north—east and the south—east of the country have made things a little bit better. but generally we are still very much mobilised. so that means that a moment is yet to come when we will be exhaling, and when we will be reevaluating our state of mind, our psychological state. and i think that is the point when the country will be actually in suffering and enduring consequences of the psychological bomb that putin has offset on ukraine. we very rarely hear anything about battlefield casualties. we hear a lot about the civilian casualties, but very little about losses on the battlefield. why is that? it's a matter of security. it's a matter of protecting the information that we have about our military fighting on the ground and not to give russia any advantages on the battlefield. that's the first reason. the second reason is, of course, also the morale, the morale of the people of the ukrainian people,

first and foremost, who are, again, standing strong behind their army, behind their military in communities big and small. there are funerals happening day by day, and somebody is being returned in a coffin, and the whole community cries and provides support to the families who have lost. kyiv is largely unscathed so far. i mean, obviously terrible things happened in bucha and irpin, but the centre of the capital has been preserved. do you and your fellow parliamentarians, do you worry that if you are so successful on the battlefield, pushing russia right out of the areas it's occupied, that they might retaliate and hit the capital in a really devastating way? to worry is a luxury that we don't have in ukraine these days. we do not have the luxury to fear.

we do not have the luxury to worry. we only can push forward with all the resources that we have every day in the given circumstances. and our main task is to get rid of every single russian soldier in the territory of ukraine and to reinstate ukraine's borders to the 1991 levels. what putin may do in reaction to our right of self—defence is a whole different story. i mean, no—one knows what's going on inside of his head and how he might act. we are prepared that we are dealing with a psychopathic leader and he can go all in and he can attack us with everything he can. but at the same time, we ukrainians, we don't have a plan b, we don't have another country. we are fighting for our land, and we are fighting for the future of our children, and we will carry on doing so. ok, so here's where we are right now. russia still occupies around a fifth of ukraine. it's not going to withdraw from that territory. in fact, if anything,

it's determined to make it a part of the russian federation. ukraine, for its part, has no intention of giving up, but it does depend on western weapons to keep on fighting. president putin is clearly hoping to use the spectre of nuclear war to scare the west into breaking off that supply of those crucial weapons, because given the deep—rooted failures of his armed forces, that's the only way president putin has left to achieve his aims.

the wind is continuing to strengthen, cloud across the uk, a short spell of rain that moves away from scotland and northern ireland this evening, the wind direction changes, a northerly wind will bring in some showers. not quite as cold as last night, temperatures in eastern scotland and north—east england down to 7 degrees. by the time we get to tomorrow morning, the weather front bringing the rain band is in the english channel, and we have this run of much stronger northerly winds across the uk, bringing colder air all the way from iceland, a mixture of sunshine and showers, pushed in on those very brisk winds, particularly frequent showers, northern scotland down those north sea coasts, but some further west as well. the winds are going to be very strong and gusty, perhaps touching gale force in northern scotland, temperatures struggling to make double figures, 16 in the far south, but everywhere feeling colder in the strong wind.

this is bbc news. this is bbc news. are the latest headlines.

i'm lewis vaughanjones and these i'm lewis vaughanjones and these are the latest headlines. labour opens its annual conference as its leader, sir keir starmer, prepares to set out the dividing lines between his party and the new conservative government. he tells the bbc he would reverse the government's cut to the top income tax rate. we do need to grow our economy, that has been the single biggest failure of the last 12 years of tory government, but we need to recognise who grows this economy. i'm mark loewen live in rome where people are voting in an election which could usher in a telly�*s first far right leader since mussolini. a man has died after a fire in a block of flats in bristol. eight other people are currently being treated in hospital