italy on the cusp of momentous political change. this is bbc news, i'm mark lowen, live in rome, where polls havejust closed in a potentially game—changing election. polls suggest the brothers of italy party will come out on top, which would make its leader giorgia meloni italy's first female prime minister. she would also be the country's first far—right leader since benito mussolini. it all hangs on whether a coalition can be formed with the league, led by matteo salvini, and forza italia, headed by former premier silvio berlusconi. we'll bring you all the results and analysis

as they come in on this, the most crucial of election nights. and i'm lucy grey with the other main stories this hour. the iranian president threatens "decisive action" to stop the wave of anti—government protests sweeping the country. super typhoon noru has hit the philippines and is set to sweep through the capital manila with winds of up to 175 kilometres an hour. hello and welcome to rome where in the last few minutes polls have closed in an election which many predict could be a political turning—point for the country. polling suggests italy will choose its first female prime minister, giorgia meloni, and the first in the modern era to come from the far—right.

her brothers of italy party look set to top the vote, but are likely to be forced into coalition with other parties to form a government. in the next hour, we'll be trying to make sense of the rapidly shifting sands of italian politics with our correspondents and a range of experts. what's brought the nation to this watershed moment and what it means for the future of the country, and in turn the impact a right wing surge could have further afield, and in turn the impact a right wing but first let's look at the exit polls. the centre—right coalition led by the brothers are brothers of italy looks set to sweep into power with up to 45% of the vote. the centre—left is being given between 25.5 and 29.5%, considerably down from the right—wing coalition

that looks likely to this country. then there is the 55tar movement and that did not form a coalition with the centre—left and iran as a separate party to hamper an attempt to challenge the right wing, that is being given 13.5 and 17.5%. the right when the league party when we breakdown the individual parties is quite down between 8.5 and 12.5%, part of the coalition government giorgia meloni will seek to form but it looks like it has underperformed from compared to the predictions leading up to this momentous election. there is what is cold the third paul, centrist parties of action & italy alive being given

between science the centre—right has got a very solid majority if the exit pull translate into reality. what that would mean, giorgia meloni's brothers of italy of the far—right looks likely to be the biggest party in this right—wing coalition and she will argue in political consultations with the president over the next few days that she has the right to form the next government. that would be a momentous change for this country and would have major implications not only for italy's relationship with you but its standing as a whole in the west. giorgia meloni says that she has consigned fascism to history. she says she is a modern conservative party. there will be those who believe she represents something much darker than the

slogan she often repeats, god, family and homeland. we start with this report from our europe editor, katya adler a warning it does contain flashing images. italy looks picture—perfect from afar. a delicious combination of food, fashion and folklore. but close up, things are very frayed around the edges. italians voting today are living through an acute cost—of—living crisis. many think this woman has the answers, far—right firebrand giorgia meloni. waiting in the wings today are her chosen coalition partners, tycoon silvio berlusconi and anti—immigration populist matteo salvini. though not all voters are convinced. translation: of course i'm worried about the energy - crisis, the economy, but i don't trust politicians. i'll vote for the best of the worst.

what's most on your mind? "to avoid the populists", claudia told me, "having meloni as prime minister would be unforgivable." but marizio believes meloni's promise of a better future. translation: meloni stands for more italian sovereignty in europe. - that's better for our business, our politics, and economy. - it's hide and seek all over town today for giorgia meloni. we were told she was going to come here to vote and at the last minute, she didn't turn up. she believes she is this close to become italy's next prime minister and she knows everyone is watching. including outside italy. this country is a key

player in the eu and nato. here in rome, liars have their hand bitten off in the mouth of truth — according to medieval legend. voters here know they can't believe every political promise made on the campaign trail. theyjust hope whoever italy's next prime minister is, they're up to the considerable challenge. the implications of italy and the relationship with the west. interesting because giorgia meloni who will stand a very good chance of becoming italy's first female prime minister has been very supportive of nato and of arming ukraine,

continuing to arm ukraine but she will be in coalition it looks like with matteo salvini of the hard right and x prime minister, silvio berlusconi. known so files, that will cause concern. let's look at that exit poll. it is showing fratelli d'italia of the far—right looks locate has between 23 and... 22 and 25% it looks like the democratic party of the centre—left is following with 20% and the sstar movement with about 15.5%. what does that mean? clearly the brothers of italy is the far—right and the largest party, it will be in coalition with the right wing. you

can see the coalition partners of brothers of italy, the league of matteo salvini at 11.5% and forza italia of almost 86—year—old silvio berlusconi, three times prime minister at 7% and then another on the left. if we put those together the left. if we put those together the right—wing coalition that giorgia meloni will lead into government we expect stands at 40—45% of the vote. that would sweep them into power. with me is gianluca passarelli, professor of political science at sapienza university in rome. thank you for having me. what do you make of what — thank you for having me. what do you make of what we _ thank you for having me. what do you make of what we are _ thank you for having me. what do you make of what we are seeing? - thank you for having me. what do you make of what we are seeing? there i thank you for having me. what do you make of what we are seeing? there is| make of what we are seeing? there is somethin: make of what we are seeing? there is something surprising, _ make of what we are seeing? there is something surprising, the _ make of what we are seeing? there is something surprising, the size - make of what we are seeing? there is something surprising, the size of - something surprising, the size of the victory if this projection,

these exit polls are confirmed. at these exit polls are confirmed. at the same time, you can see that the growth numbers refers to what has been the history of editorial italian history in, since 1994. the centre—left is divided. given the electoral system, that made the difference in results. giorgia meloni could be the prime minister if she will be able to, as you see, to handle, to hold this collision because the allies looks a bit different especially in their relations. different especially in their relations-_ different especially in their relations. , , ., relations. interesting you should mention the _ relations. interesting you should mention the potential _ relations. interesting you should mention the potential problems| relations. interesting you should - mention the potential problems along the way because this country has known almost 70 governments since the second world war. we have seen fractures and fissures between giorgia meloni and salvini. do you

think this coalition can hold? maw. think this coalition can hold? now, savini's party _ think this coalition can hold? now, savini's party is — think this coalition can hold? now, savini's party is aligned _ think this coalition can hold? now, savini's party is aligned with - savini's party is aligned with putin's party, united rush hour. just two days ago, berlusconi said putin invaded ukrainejust to just two days ago, berlusconi said putin invaded ukraine just to save from bad people. this will be a very important topic to manage in the diplomatic context but we should consider the key actor is the president of the republic. whether or not fought site's number of seats will be determined force that alea will be in favour or not for meloni to lead the government. haw will be in favour or not for meloni to lead the government. how worried in liuht to lead the government. how worried in li . ht of to lead the government. how worried in light of what _ to lead the government. how worried in light of what berlusconi _ to lead the government. how worried in light of what berlusconi said - to lead the government. how worried in light of what berlusconi said and i in light of what berlusconi said and their putin connections, how worried do you think that nato alliance and western europe will be or should be

by a right—wing government led by giorgia meloni? the? by a right-wing government led by giorgia meloni?— giorgia meloni? they are very worried and _ giorgia meloni? they are very worried and they _ giorgia meloni? they are very worried and they should - giorgia meloni? they are very worried and they should be, l worried and they should be, especially because italy has been targeted by russia and the trump administration as the key to the european union so italy has considered the weakest country within the european union. this could be important in the near future. �* , ., ., could be important in the near future. �*, ., ., ., , future. putin's tro'an horse in euroe? future. putin's tro'an horse in europe? ves. — future. putin's trojan horse in europe? yes, meloni - future. putin's trojan horse in europe? yes, meloni always. future. putin's trojan horse in - europe? yes, meloni always says she is pro-nato — europe? yes, meloni always says she is pro-nato and _ europe? yes, meloni always says she is pro-nato and pro-western - europe? yes, meloni always says she is pro-nato and pro-western values| is pro—nato and pro—western values etc but even viktor 0rban and the polish government is pro—nato just because they are against russia. [30 because they are against russia. do you think this what we are going to see in italy is a country that becomes more like a social

conservative eastern europe of viktor 0rban�*s hungry and moving away from italy's traditional allies of paris and berlin? that away from italy's traditional allies of paris and berlin?— of paris and berlin? that will not be done overnight _ of paris and berlin? that will not be done overnight but _ of paris and berlin? that will not be done overnight but there - of paris and berlin? that will not be done overnight but there will| of paris and berlin? that will not i be done overnight but there will be time to move away. to simper five for the audience, it is light on marine le pen, trying to say ok, we let europe but europe of nations, not europe, united by a europe of single nations, challenging their defeats alone. to single nations, challenging their defeats alone.— single nations, challenging their defeats alone. to what extent can euro -e defeats alone. to what extent can eumpe scunper — defeats alone. to what extent can europe scupper giorgia _ defeats alone. to what extent can europe scupper giorgia meloni's l europe scupper giorgia meloni's plans? we saw in 2011 when silvio berlusconi was brought down in effect by the european commission saying we have run out of road, italy's borrowing costs are exorbitantly high. she is constrained by italy's closeness within the eu mat? that

constrained by italy's closeness within the eu mat?— constrained by italy's closeness within the eu mat? at that time the eu was stronger, _ within the eu mat? at that time the eu was stronger, now— within the eu mat? at that time the eu was stronger, now we _ within the eu mat? at that time the eu was stronger, now we do - within the eu mat? at that time the eu was stronger, now we do not - within the eu mat? at that time the | eu was stronger, now we do not have angela merkel, there is only emmanuel macron leading, the uk left, so there is a problem within the european governance. at that time, the spread was over 500 points. now the italian government has many fronts to manage. that can be a positive tool for any government to use to calm the protest. sofia bettiza is a reporter for the bbc world service and she's been following the trends. a lot of this has played out on social media. you have been looking at the reaction on social media,

what do you see in terms of reaction online? ., ., ., , ., online? you are right, lots of leaders from _ online? you are right, lots of leaders from different - online? you are right, lots of. leaders from different political parties have been active on tiktok, facebook, but nothing from any of them just yet. what we can see from what i have been looking at on social media is if you look at the today and how people have been voting, we have seen quite a low turnout, especially in southern italy. we do not know why that is and votes are being counted. it could be because this campaign, this election campaign was in august, when many italians go to the beach and in terms of the results, we have the first exit polls as predicted, the first exit polls as predicted, the centre, the right wing coalition has, it seems to be doing quite well. a lot of people are asking on

twitter could this coalition get something called a supermajority? that would mean a two thirds majority in the lower house and the senate. which would give a potential right—wing coalition government. a lot of powers to maybe change the italian constitutions without having to go for a referendum. find italian constitutions without having to go for a referendum.— to go for a referendum. and they have talked _ to go for a referendum. and they have talked about _ to go for a referendum. and they have talked about trying - to go for a referendum. and they have talked about trying to - to go for a referendum. and they. have talked about trying to change the constitution here to have the president of italy directly elected, thatis president of italy directly elected, that is something italians feel a bit uneasy about, given this country's very tragic relationship with its leaders. can i ask, a lot of support behind giorgia meloni, people i have spoken to said she needs to give opportunities to young people, there has been a perpetual brain drain of young talented italians. you are young talented italians. you are young talented

italian and went to the uk for many reasons i'm sure, but do you sense that among young italians there is a real sense of despair at what has happened and that's one of the reasons why people are throwing their weight and giving giorgia meloni a chance? that their weight and giving giorgia meloni a chance?— their weight and giving giorgia meloni a chance? that is a really aood meloni a chance? that is a really good question — meloni a chance? that is a really good question and _ meloni a chance? that is a really good question and i _ meloni a chance? that is a really good question and i think - meloni a chance? that is a really good question and i think one i meloni a chance? that is a really good question and i think one of| meloni a chance? that is a really i good question and i think one of the reasons that people are wanting to give giorgia meloni a chance is that she represents something new. somebody put it to me, she has not had a chance to fail yet. berlusconi has led the country three times, matteo salvini has been interior minister a few years ago, meloni represents something fresh, she is relatively young in her early 405, she comes from a working—class neighbourhood in rome, quite a thick roman accent, 5he neighbourhood in rome, quite a thick roman accent, she is relatable, something according to some people

cannot be said for other italian politicians. she is a very capable public speaker. if you look at her campaigning in the past month, the political rallie5, the speeches 5he political rallie5, the speeches she gave, 5quare5 were full, packed with hundreds of people. she knows what she is doing. hundreds of people. she knows what she is doing-— she is doing. certainly desire for something _ she is doing. certainly desire for something new _ she is doing. certainly desire for something new in _ she is doing. certainly desire for something new in this _ she is doing. certainly desire for something new in this country i she is doing. certainly desire for i something new in this country that frankly youth feel is in this player with its political class taking the leap into the unknown. thank you very much indeed forjoining u5. very much indeed forjoining us. there will be ecstatic scenes at the brothers of italy headquarters, the exit polls suggesting giorgia meloni i5 exit polls suggesting giorgia meloni is in pole position to become italy's first female prime minister and to lead a right—wing coalition into power, potentially with a supermajority a5 sophia said. let's checkin

supermajority a5 sophia said. let's check in with our europe editor. katya adler is at georgia meloni's hq. katya, what is the mood like? lot5 lots of anticipation, a lot of excitement, a lot of media but a lot of people are waiting for giorgia meloni. she decided to vote at the last minute tonight, 5he meloni. she decided to vote at the last minute tonight, she has got to make her way over here. she will be very pleased in that car as she draws up to her headquarters, her brother5 draws up to her headquarters, her brothers of italy party appears to have done extremely well. people know it is notjust because of the election promises 5he know it is notjust because of the election promises she has made because italian5 voted with that cost of living cri5i5 very much in their mind she will also have benefited from spending all that time on the opposition den5e ju5t time on the opposition den5e just like every other major italian party

and that means when italian5 went to vote they did not associate her with those unpopular decisions but it's a tho5e unpopular decisions but it's a hugely significant night tonight for italy. but also europe where you see something of a far—right 5urge, look at sweden or the french parliamentary elections early in the summer. ~ . , parliamentary elections early in the summer. ~ ., , , .,~ ., summer. what will they be making of this in paris, — summer. what will they be making of this in paris, berlin, _ summer. what will they be making of this in paris, berlin, brussels. - summer. what will they be making of this in paris, berlin, brussels. you i this in paris, berlin, brussels. you talk about the far—right resurgence through europe, italy, it is one thing to have hungary on the eastern edge of the eu, a small economy go to the far—right with viktor 0rban. it something different to have a founding member of the european union and the third largest economy swing to the far—right. that will cause jitters in western capitals. i think we have to look at this from different points of view outside italy. notjust the eu, nato as

well. italy is a key player. by questions about giorgia meloni's chosen coalition parties if she gets to form her right—wing government, they include silvio berlusconi, former prime minister and anti—immigration populace, both men traditionally extremely close to vladimir putin. what the uk and nato want to know is will italy keep sending weapons to the ukraine or keep to western sanctions against russia? giorgia meloni has always voted in favour of those sanctions and said she will continue that line but that concern in the international community. absolutely brussels is biting its nails, they very much worried a nationalist government under giorgia meloni would side with poland and hungary against brussels and on many issues, particularly immigration or fiscal policy. i would say that fear is tempered because one thing about the

nationalists on the european stage as each one wants to be the leader, whether it is viktor 0rban of hungary or maybe giorgia meloni of italy. they do not work very well together but giorgia meloni government could definitely cause headaches for brussels. we government could definitely cause headaches for brussels.— headaches for brussels. we are caettin a headaches for brussels. we are getting a line — headaches for brussels. we are getting a line from _ headaches for brussels. we are getting a line from matteo - headaches for brussels. we are l getting a line from matteo salvini on twitter, the coalition partner of giorgia meloni. he says it will be a long night but we are in a clear positional advantage in both houses of parliament and already it is time to say thank you to the voters of the right wing. it looks that the right—wing stands are very chance to form a strong majority government in parliament. i suppose the people you have spoken to during the day and the people there at brothers of

italy headquarters, they will have large expectations of giorgia meloni. what will they want to see from her? at some point she will be pulled one way by her base and another way by the european union? mellor that's right. for her base she is young dynamic heroine who put she is young dynamic heroine who mt pride back into italy. as i have travelled around italy and around rome today, those who support her say they want italy's head to be held high in europe. even though giorgia meloni at our along with salvini is a eurosceptic there is no talk about leaving the eu or even leaving the euro but yes about not being bossed around by germany or france or brussels. that's something you hear a lot about. more pride in italian labour, for italian businesses, young italians, italian

families but also that international stage for italy to hold its head up high. ithink stage for italy to hold its head up high. i think again amongst voters even those voting for giorgia meloni, not all of them are holding her up on a pedestal but it was very much why don't we give her a go? voters who say we tried the sstar movement, we try the left, we have not tried giorgia meloni's brothers of italy party. the country is in a terrible state, let's give it a try. not everybody has high expectations but everybody desperately wants change. but everybody desperately wants chan . e. . ~ but everybody desperately wants chance. ., ~ i. but everybody desperately wants chance. ., ~' ,, , but everybody desperately wants chance. . ~ , . with me is gianluca passarelli, professor of political science at sapienza university in rome. to what extent is it a failure of

the left to establish pro—european politics that giorgia meloni now looks set to become italy's prime minister? a leap into the unknown for the far—rightmet minister? a leap into the unknown for the far-rightme_ for the far-rightmet when a olitical for the far-rightmet when a political party _ for the far-rightmet when a political party is _ for the far-rightmet when a political party is due - for the far-rightmet when a political party is due on - for the far-rightmet when a political party is due on its. for the far-rightmet when a - political party is due on its merit but also the failure of the other parties. in this case the centre—left is divided, this is the history of the italian left and centre—left, to be divided because if we consider, the two numbers are not that distant if we sum the two forces. in this case it was very difficult for the centre—left democratic party because in reading down the outgoing prime minister. i wonder whether you feel this is also to do with italy's uncomfortable

relationship with its past. there was no equivalent of denazification in this country. post—fascism could rise, lead to the far—right. to what extent are the ghosts of italy is past to blame for this?- extent are the ghosts of italy is past to blame for this? yes, there was some kind — past to blame for this? yes, there was some kind of _ past to blame for this? yes, there was some kind of founded - past to blame for this? yes, there was some kind of founded in - past to blame for this? yes, there was some kind of founded in the l past to blame for this? yes, there i was some kind of founded in the 90s was some kind of founded in the 905 was some kind of founded in the 905 was the blanket of shame where many folders where heading, saying that there was not this denazification or there was not this denazification or the fascist process as in germany or france. it was seen as, because this was due to international arena in which italy was, since the bare line wall of europe with the biggest party in europe. this was uncomfortable to go deeper in analysing the past. if

uncomfortable to go deeper in analysing the past.— uncomfortable to go deeper in analysing the past. if these poll numbers are — analysing the past. if these poll numbers are borne _ analysing the past. if these poll numbers are borne out - analysing the past. if these poll numbers are borne out in - analysing the past. if these poll| numbers are borne out in reality with the right wing have a super majority to change the constitution here? . ~ , .,, majority to change the constitution here? ., ., . ., here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar, here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar. i _ here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar, i hope _ here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar, i hope not— here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar, i hope not for- here? frankly as a citizen, as a scholar, i hope not for any - here? frankly as a citizen, as a l scholar, i hope not for any party, that would be not good for democracy but this is not point. it would be not only one party but the coalition and we know that within the coalition there is a lot of differences but i think that the big problem is not politics, because italy is one of the founding fathers of the european union, the rome treaty was signed here in 1957. and because of italy's role in economy and nato it and so on, meloni will be more on policy, we will see more restriction on civil rights and lgbt

national, immigrants, more on policy than politics. national, immigrants, more on policy than politics-— than politics. pro-european, pro-western _ than politics. pro-european, pro-western italians - than politics. pro-european, pro-western italians are - than politics. pro-european, l pro-western italians are going than politics. pro-european, - pro-western italians are going to pro—western italians are going to feel pretty devastated, what are the lessons can be learned?— lessons can be learned? political arties lessons can be learned? political parties have _ lessons can be learned? political parties have to _ lessons can be learned? political parties have to listen _ lessons can be learned? political parties have to listen to - lessons can be learned? political parties have to listen to citizens, especially new generations that are far ahead or the politicians on the centre—right and centre—left. en ukraine, are we going to see salvini, berlusconi, trying to move things towards putin or you think that they are going to be weakened by it seems like a relatively poor showing for their party? i

by it seems like a relatively poor showing for their party?- showing for their party? i think meloni is smart _ showing for their party? i think meloni is smart enough - showing for their party? i think meloni is smart enough to - showing for their party? i think. meloni is smart enough to remain showing for their party? i think- meloni is smart enough to remain in power if she wants to keep silent or quiet, these two allies that are within the country, within their parties, i think she will have more pro—europeanjust keep parties, i think she will have more pro—european just keep the power to be in favour of sending against putin. to be in favour of sending against putin. ., ,., , , putin. to some extent it will be up to western — putin. to some extent it will be up to western governments _ putin. to some extent it will be up to western governments to - putin. to some extent it will be up to western governments to say - putin. to some extent it will be up i to western governments to say we're not going to give you the cold shoulder, we to coax you into the fold. it will be a diplomatic dance. i think the diplomatic task here is not put in the conor moloney, just to involve her. not to isolate her but to include her in the negotiations. in order to avoid she keeps the radical right more than she did. . ~

keeps the radical right more than she did. ., ~ i. keeps the radical right more than she did. . ~' ,, , keeps the radical right more than she did. ., ~ i. , . she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge — she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge for _ she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge for europe _ she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge for europe and _ she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge for europe and how - she did. thank you very much indeed. a challenge for europe and how to - a challenge for europe and how to deal with giorgia meloni, if she becomes prime minister as now seems likely, but a challenge also for giorgia meloni about how to keep her base happy that loves her social conservatism but also keep your pgppy conservatism but also keep your pappy because this country depends on 200 billion euros of eu covid recovery funds but in order to get that money it needs to stick to a very tight schedule of reforms. it's going to be a fascinating time and potentially a period of huge change for italy. this country that appears to have elected its first ever female prime minister, probably, in giorgia meloni who will probably be tapped by the president to form a government and there appears to have voted in a right—wing government for the first time in 12 years with a far—right party at its helm. uncharted territory in modern times

for this country and for western europe. we will continue to