independent financial forecaster on friday. now on bbc news, panorama. record numbers are risking their lives in the channel to get to britain. it's kind of a desperate journey. they dream of a new life, better life. i've been on the south coast as asylum seekers arrived... i've counted more than 100 people coming off the boat and still they are arriving. ..to the migrant camps of northern france... you get to the uk and you use this leaflet. these phone numbers will help you. ..and to turkey to investigate the criminals smuggling people to our shores. translation: each i person pays the same.

a trip to britain will . cost $17,000 in total. the government wants to send some asylum seekers to rwanda. it's young men, new mobile phones, and money in their pocket, and people struggle to see that these are genuine refugees. but will its plan to stop the people smugglers work? i'm on board the portia with fisherman matt coker. he's seen how the english channel has changed. each year, his radar picks up more and more boats. this is the shipping lane here. that's another large... that's a border force boat?

that's another border force boat. he's heading out there fast, so there's obviously another migrant boat been spotted out here. it's been a long, hot summer, perfect conditions for migrants to cross the channel... ..and for the people smugglers charging thousands to bring them to the uk. there'll be a0 or 50 on each boat. they're all in the same boats now, they're all these big, long, black dinghies, which are about sort of seven or eight metres long, so they normally have about a0 or 50 on board, so... so it's a couple of hundred already today. 0h, easily. easily a couple of hundred already. and as i say, you've got one, two, another... ..at least three out here, so there's another 150. you know, you're probably up to... you're probably going to be up to 600 or 700 by before midday today. almost 90% of those arriving this year are men. more than 20,000 people have risked their lives crossing the channel to get to britain

in the past six months, and nothing the government does seems to put them off. crossing one of the world's busiest shipping lanes in a dinghy can be terrifying. the near misses happen almost every day. the overcrowded boats quickly take on water. they're often just drifting without a proper motor. last november, 27 people and an unborn baby drowned when their dinghy sank. mustapha was rescued in the channel when his boat

almost went under in march. he's now in britain, but doesn't want us to show his face. translation: everyone - was saying that the boat had a problem, but the smuggler insisted we get in. he threatened us. "if you don't make the crossing, no—one survives, "and your family will have problems." so we got on. we were really drowning. i will never forget that day. the people smugglers don't care less about their cargo. _ the people they're transporting are pure meat with money- in their pocket. but beyond that, i mean, i we have to look a bit more carefully at who is coming over. - i don't think our immigration l and asylum system was meant to be rewarding those that had money in their pocket, - at the expense of those -

who have a real and genuine need to come and seek sanctuary somewhere. | many of the big smuggling gangs are based here in turkey. thousands of people arrange their journeys to the uk from istanbul. it's the centre of a global refugee crisis. no—one really knows how many refugees there are in turkey. official figures put it at around five million, but unofficially, it could be as high as ten million. and that makes turkey the country with the most refugees in the world. istanbul is a gathering point for refugees and economic migrants from africa, asia and the middle east, and the black market trade

in people smuggling is booming. istanbul is a kind of a connection point. it's kind of a bridge. and it's also an important place for the migrants to get in touch with smugglers, and as the security increases from the western parts, the journey becomes more... ..dramatically dangerous for many of them. rahmet fled his home in afghanistan two years ago. he now lives and works in this bakery. translation: we didn't| come here for no reason. we came to turkey to earn a living, to support our families left behind in hunger. rahmet doesn't have permission to stay. he never leaves the bakery because he's afraid of being sent home.

they don't want us refugees here. they take us off the streets and send us back to where we have so many problems. even war. that's why we're here. for many, they have to send money back to their families in their homeland, in their countries of origin. this is how the families are actually surviving on a global level. it is kind of a desperate journey. they dream of a new life, better life, somewhere else. it's this desperation that's exploited by the people smugglers. i'm heading to a safe house to meet a kingpin in the smuggling trade. it's taken months to arrange,

working through a trusted intermediary. the smuggler has agreed to talk on condition that we don't identify him. he's sent hundreds of people to the uk. the british government says that what you're doing is illegal. translation: i know it's illegal, but i choose - to help these people. we treat them well. we respect women. we don't disrespect anyone. but there have been allegations that a migrant died on one of his boats. he denies it. he says he gets customers to sign this disclaimer, acknowledging the risks of death, capture and being lost at sea. it says, "sign if you

accept these terms." it doesn't matter if it's a - whole family or an individual. each person pays the same. a trip to britain will . cost $17,000 in total. smuggling is dangerous. people's lives are put at risk. you're making money from putting people's lives at risk. accidents can happen. but we explain how dangerous l the journey is and we have them sign a consent form. you could die, i tell him, - and warn his mum and dad, too. these are some of the passports the smuggler says he has taken from migrants. it's so officials can't check their details when they arrive in britain. why do people want to come to the uk? there are more job- opportunities in britain, and they have respect for human rights. -

people smuggling is a competitive business, with services openly advertised online. this one's a post offering to take people to the uk, but no children under eight years old. they say they can provide a 70—metre boat which can take up to 60 people. the cost? $11,500. there are also fake british driving licences and passports for sale, and sample questions to prepare migrants for a grilling by home office officials. for many smugglers, it's a business now, and thanks to the social media, like facebook, instagram, etc, they are making their advertisements very easily. the problem is to...to find

somebody that you can trust. you know, like, trust here is the key word, i believe, and this is why some of the smugglers who've got certain experience and who've got certain reputation in the field makes it easier to find new clients. the people smugglers rely on a network of safe houses and apartments here in istanbul. there's one that we know ofjust round the corner here. these pictures were filmed inside one of the smuggler�*s safe houses. people are held here for weeks in cramped conditions. they are nearly all single young men. translation: we put them.

in an apartment while we wait until it's safe to go. the families get their food and supplies together- and when they're ready, we take their phone - so that the cops can't find out about us. - once the smuggler has gathered enough people here in istanbul, they'll begin the most dangerous part of theirjourney so far, to get across the mediterranean sea and into europe. this is footage of his customers heading to the boats. we put them in a van and drive them to the mountains- near where we keep the boats. from there, they walk towards the sea. - then everyone gets in. and the journey begins. we've seen several videos of migrants on the smuggler�*s boats...

..thanking him for getting them to western europe. the videos are filmed to prove the migrants have safely made the crossing. the money for the trip is held by a middleman and not paid to the smuggler until they arrive in italy or greece. the smuggler says he even runs a luxury vip service for wealthy clients. but crossing the med is far from plain sailing. sit down, sit down. down, down. sit down. nearly 2,000 people died making

the journey last year. of these boats arriving — young women with babies, people drowning, bodies being picked up, you know, at sea — from people attempting to find the solution. britain would say that many of these people are not the probability is that about 80% of them are maybe about 20% would not fall within the legal category. many are heading to the uk. the government here says it wants to smash the people smugglers. it's brought in tougher prison sentences and made it illegal for people to arrive by dinghy.

but the most controversial plan is to send some asylum seekers, likely single men, to africa to have their claims processed. the government signed a £120 million deal with rwanda in april, despite warnings from its own advisers about human rights abuses in rwanda and international concern about the deal�*s legality. to achieve the very objective of our role, which is protection of people displaced. it is in breach of international law. so obviously, there are concerns. but our immediate concerns as the un refugee agency concern the lack of safeguards in the asylum system. we have been working with the rwandan government

to strengthen that system, but it's one that does not have the safeguards that will protect the rights of those people, were they to be forcibly transferred from the united kingdom to rwanda. it's not safe for me to go to rwanda to investigate. i was threatened after making a film that challenged the official account of the country's genocide 28 years ago. the government says rwanda has changed. there's nothing wrong with the rwandan human rights record, no matter what these external organisations say. we also have surveys and indices that talk about how safe rwanda is. we have made tremendous progress in the last 28 years. rwandans trust their government. we have people who come to live here of their own. we consider ourselves a country of migration.

so far, not a single asylum seeker has been sent to rwanda. the first flight this summer was grounded by the european court of human rights. i think we should have grasped the nettle and actually let - that plane take off. we feel powerless and - the government, i'm sure, feels pretty powerless, - because whichever way it tries to turn, to actually do things. that the population want done properly, like taking back control, taking control. of your borders, we seem to be thwarted by external forces - that are seemingly- outside of our control. vahid says he fled iran to britain because he was persecuted for being a christian. the home office has told him they intend to reject his asylum application. that means he could

be sent to rwanda. translation: the hopes i have had about living in a safe - country all vanished. if i knew that i would go through so much, i would never have left. vahid says he was forced to work for the people smugglers. they took us to a place like a warehouse. we were around 35 to a0 people. they said, "you must just follow our orders." were they violent? were you abused 7 yes, they did all of that. they harassed us, tortured us. we suffered everything. he is a genuine christian.

he was persecuted because of his religious beliefs. he was persecuted by even the human traffickers. so he needs help. we are putting a vulnerable person as a matter of experiment to a third country like rwanda where we know, you know, the government knows, has a track record where there are a lot of human right breaches. it's bizarre. ok, watch your hands. watch... children first. no. there will be genuine cases where what people tell - you is absolutely true. but because of the seeming ease by which you can just pay- for your passage, it has. devalued the whole thing. it's young men, well dressed, good haircuts, new mobile - phones, and money in theirl pocket, and people struggle to see that these - are genuine refugees. it's here in northern france that refugees and economic migrants face theirfinal hurdle. the channel.

one last dangerous journey to reach the uk. there's no shortage of customers for the people smugglers. where are you aiming to go? will you stay in france? where do you want to go? really, i want to go to england. and do you have family in england? yeah, i have my brother. he's in england. and do you know that the british government is saying that it will send people to rwanda if they're not accepted? i know that, but what can i do? just, i want to stay in england. the opposition to the government's rwanda plan starts here. careacalais is one of a number of groups challenging

the legality of the policy in the british courts. if you get to the uk, then you use this leaflet. these phone numbers will help you, and we will get you a lawyer to stop rwanda. 0k. and you tell your friends, as well, ok? it's very, very important. government would see this as thwarting the will of the government and of public opinion in stopping asylum seekers claiming asylum wrongly. the lawyers couldn't help them if they didn't have the rights there to help them. we have the rights and we help them stand by it. it is brutal and cruel and wrong because the united kingdom is not supposed to abuse people's human rights. we are not...that is not who we are. and if we say yes to this, then that is what we are doing. but some refugees say they are

having second thoughts. the plan to send asylum seekers to rwanda, will it stop you? i'm going to check it out, the news every day. so will you stop trying to go to the uk because of rwanda, or will you still try? there's a network of criminal gangs that get people across the channel. and the smuggler we met in turkey is part of it. we buy a dinghy and installi a motor for about $10,000, $20,000. one of the passengers

goes for free in return| for navigating the boat. theyjust go straight across the channel. i when they reach the uk, - theyjust turn themselves over to the police. for now, the people smugglers are winning. there are scenes like this most days in dover. exhausted asylum seekers setting foot on british soil. well, i've counted more than 100 people coming off

the boat and still they're arriving. and we know there are at least two other border force vessels out there in the channel right now, still picking up migrants. the day we filmed was the busiest for crossings since records began. 1,295 made the trip in one day. many are men from albania, where people smugglers are offering cut—price rates. everyone arriving needs food, clothing and health care. the government says it's now spending around £5 million a dayjust on hotels. my email inbox is full of people with accommodation problems, so when they then hear that there is another big, large number of people, no matter which route they come in, these numbers become

alarming to people cos they know that many of our services that we all want are not exactly working perfectly now, and this will simply add to the pressure. the government told us its "world—leading partnership with rwanda" is a key part of "plans to fix the broken asylum system". it still wants to "break the business model" of people smugglers and "prevent further loss of life". it says rwanda is a "safe and secure country" with a "strong track record of supporting asylum seekers". earlier this month, the government returned to the courts to argue that its rwanda plan is safe and legal. a ruling on whether it can start removing asylum seekers is expected later this autumn.

even if the uk government wins the court case, it's only likely to send a couple of hundred people to rwanda. that's all the government there says it has the capacity to hold. that's unlikely to stop the people smugglers, who are bringing thousands to britain. the numbers are going up. the people who are taking these journeys are well aware that they are at risk of being transferred to rwanda. it's not stopping them. what is being achieved here? almost nothing. it's hugely expensive, and the very high probability is that those that do come to rwanda will leave very, very quickly and we're right back where we started again. this month, the number of arrivals by boat reached a new record.

over 30,000 so far this year. that's already more than the whole of last year. what do local people think about all this? i think they're getting a little bit tired of it now, really, myself included. do you think the numbers will carry on? we're now in early autumn, but is there any sign of the numbers stopping? no, no, not at all. i mean, it gets... itjust seems to get busier. the last time i saw the people smuggler in istanbul, he was buying this new boat. his business is growing. the british government has announced a plan to send asylum seekers to rwanda. will this make a difference? even if they sent a thousand people a day to rwanda, - they won't stop. people won't change their mind. they aren't afraid of dying, and if they're not afraid -

of death, they won't be i afraid of going to rwanda. the government says it's determined to break the people smugglers' business model. but there's no sign of it yet. the numbers arriving in the uk are still rising.

we're going to end the week on the wet and windy note, but the weekend is looking drier and brighter so here's the headline for friday. now that wind and rain will sweep into western parts of the uk very early morning in fact gale force winds affecting parts of northern ireland and western scotland at this stage as this broad area of rain sweeps in. in many parts of england and wales actually clear and calm. with mist and fog and really quite chilly in rural spots, temperatures just the few degrees above freezing. so here is that weather front as it sweeps across the country. during the course of the morning and into the afternoon. accompanied by some very strong winds, in fact gusts of wind across the north—west could approach 70 miles an hour around coasts and inland around a0 miles an hour or so. temperatures may reach 17 celsius. but it won't feel like it. now that wind and rain will be out of the way later in the evening on friday.

this is bbc news: i'm gareth barlow. our top stories: a huge rescue effort is under way in south—west florida in the aftermath of hurricane ian. president biden warns it could be the deadliest storm that's ever hit the state. the danger is real, to state the obvious, please obey warnings and directions from emergency officials. moscow prepares a ceremony to mark the annexation of occupied territories in ukraine, but the us says it will never recognise russia's claims. britain's prime minister stands by her chancellor's widely—criticised economic policy. but global experts continue to express their doubts. public, three weeks on.