would year's time? we had no idea we would be here a year ago.— be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this. _ be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this. by — be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this, by no _ be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this, by no means - be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this, by no means all - be here a year ago. indeed. and so much of this, by no means all of i be here a year ago. indeed. and soi much of this, by no means all of it, is driven by the war in ukraine. some people thought it might be coming but it was not factored in by economists. i think we are going to have a period of weak economic growth, perhaps none, perhaps a period of declining economic activity. inflation will probably come down and that is because of the rising energy and food prices will not continue and what happened is that in terms of inflation that effect drops out 12 months after it happens, but it does mean the level of those prices is still going to be high and people are still going to struggle with paying those bills. it's just they will have less to worry about than of them rising in the future, so there's no question we are in for a pretty difficult i2 we are in for a pretty difficult 12 months. �* ., ., , ., a months. and fiona, your quick anal sis months. and fiona, your quick analysis for —

months. and fiona, your quick analysis for where _ months. and fiona, your quick analysis for where things - months. and fiona, your quick| analysis for where things might months. and fiona, your quick- analysis for where things might be in a year's time. it is analysis for where things might be in a year's time.— in a year's time. it is so difficult to know what — in a year's time. it is so difficult to know what will _ in a year's time. it is so difficult to know what will happen - in a year's time. it is so difficult to know what will happen in - in a year's time. it is so difficult to know what will happen in a l in a year's time. it is so difficult - to know what will happen in a year's tima _ to know what will happen in a year's tima at _ to know what will happen in a year's tima at the — to know what will happen in a year's time. at the start of each year, at the and _ time. at the start of each year, at the end of— time. at the start of each year, at the end of each year and the beginning of a new one we do a report— beginning of a new one we do a report as — beginning of a new one we do a report as to what we think will happen— report as to what we think will happen and we did not manage to predict _ happen and we did not manage to predict coronavirus on the war, so it's very— predict coronavirus on the war, so it's very difficult. a lot was going to depend — it's very difficult. a lot was going to depend on what the bank of england — to depend on what the bank of england were going to do, near term, in november, how large they will move _ in november, how large they will move with — in november, how large they will move with the rate hikes, and when the federai— move with the rate hikes, and when the federal reserve will start cooling. — the federal reserve will start cooling, lowering their rate hikes as welt — cooling, lowering their rate hikes as welt i— cooling, lowering their rate hikes as well. i think that will be very relevant — as well. i think that will be very relevant to the broader financial market. — relevant to the broader financial market, so, overa year's relevant to the broader financial market, so, over a year's time, relevant to the broader financial market, so, overa year's time, then we would _ market, so, overa year's time, then we would have expected this to start and peter— we would have expected this to start and peter out, and things get to a new normal— and peter out, and things get to a new normal level. hopefully in the pound _ new normal level. hopefully in the pound above where it is at the moment _ pound above where it is at the moment. . ~ pound above where it is at the moment. ., ,, , ., pound above where it is at the moment-— pound above where it is at the moment. ., ,, . ., ., moment. thank you so much, fiona, and thank you _ moment. thank you so much, fiona,

and thank you to _ moment. thank you so much, fiona, and thank you to all _ moment. thank you so much, fiona, and thank you to all of _ moment. thank you so much, fiona, and thank you to all of my _ moment. thank you so much, fiona, and thank you to all of my guests - and thank you to all of my guests and thank you to all of my guests and thank you to all of my guests and thank you to you for your company and for sending in your questions. goodbye. in the next few moments, we are expecting to hear from in the next few moments, we are expecting to hearfrom russia's vladimir putin, who will hold a signing ceremony in the cavernous st george hall of the grand kremlin palace to formally announce his annexation for more areas of ukrainian territory into the russian federation, a move denounced by much of the rest of the world. his spokesman says there will be an extensive speech by the president. these are live pictures of the st george hall in the kremlin, followed tjy george hall in the kremlin, followed by the ceremony itself of the

signing of the documents. the four russian and stalled heads of the occupied areas are in moscow taking part in the sony dash installed. some of them are there already, and on the left—hand side is the self appointed leader of the donetsk republic, and the treaties will be signed as well. the kremlin claims that zaporizhzhia, donetsk and luhansk that zaporizhzhia, donetsk and lu ha nsk voted that zaporizhzhia, donetsk and luhansk voted overwhelmingly to join russia in the self styled referendums. the russian parliament is expected to rubber stamp the annexation next week even though russia does not fully control any of the areas. ukraine and the west have dismissed the results as illegal and that the result should not be accepted. in terms of the fighting, let's catch up with what is happening. 25 civilians have been killed today in a zaporizhzhia, one of the region is not underfull

russian control. ukraine says that the russians rocket in the area injuring another 28 people as well. it seems that the strike was on a convoy of civilian vehicles queueing at a checkpoint trying to get into occupied russian territory to remove families from that area. also, ukrainian forces are said to be on the verge of encircling russian troops in the important town that you can see just there, hundred and 60 kilometres south of kharkiv, the second largest city in ukraine and close to the russian border. the russian appointed head of the donetsk region who is in moscow for the ceremony said that the offensive on lyman was designed to draw attention to the historic events and

that the russian must learn from their mistakes. they could use lyman to move into the new russian territory. i'mjoined by to move into the new russian territory. i'm joined by hugo in kyiv, and james waterhouse in zaporizhzhia, which has been hit the missile attack and also by sarah raynsford, former russian correspondent who spent many years there and caroline hawley, diplomatic correspondence as well but let's start with you, sarah. this is obviously a huge escalation in terms of the response from the ukraine and the west. this in terms of the response from the ukraine and the west.— ukraine and the west. this is definitely _ ukraine and the west. this is definitely rushed _ ukraine and the west. this is definitely rushed and - ukraine and the west. this is definitely rushed and this - ukraine and the west. this is definitely rushed and this is l ukraine and the west. this is i definitely rushed and this is not the timescale vladimir putin had in mind and there were certainly going to be referenda and the process would happen at least for the two regions of the donbas but it's much bigger and is happening much faster because russia is on the back foot in ukraine. vladimir putin really needs a win, he needs something from

this. it does not need to be defeated but this is him escalating because he is in a bad spot and it is a massive escalation.— is a massive escalation. quite a different atmosphere _ is a massive escalation. quite a different atmosphere from - is a massive escalation. quite a different atmosphere from the l different atmosphere from the annexation of 2019.— different atmosphere from the annexation of 2019. very different. it was annexation of 2019. very different. it was greeted _ annexation of 2019. very different. it was greeted with _ annexation of 2019. very different. it was greeted with a _ annexation of 2019. very different. it was greeted with a huge - annexation of 2019. very different. it was greeted with a huge amount| annexation of 2019. very different. i it was greeted with a huge amount of patriotically pump and was very popular and i think this is different, for many reasons, but partly and specifically because russian men will be mobilised to fight for this cause.— russian men will be mobilised to fight for this cause. caroline, 'ust lookin: at fight for this cause. caroline, 'ust looking at the fi fight for this cause. caroline, 'ust looking at the international h looking at the international reaction to when the referendums were held and then to events today, pretty scaling. == were held and then to events today, pretty scaling-— pretty scaling. -- scathing. huge international— pretty scaling. -- scathing. huge international alarm. _ pretty scaling. -- scathing. huge international alarm. the - pretty scaling. -- scathing. huge international alarm. the un - international alarm. the un secretary general was very strong and used _ secretary general was very strong and used extremely strong language when he _ and used extremely strong language when he said this was a moment of peril and _ when he said this was a moment of peril and he — when he said this was a moment of peril and he said the annexation was a violation _ peril and he said the annexation was a violation of the principles of the un charterand a violation of the principles of the un charter and international law and it stood _ un charter and international law and it stood against everything in the international community which it is meant _ international community which it is meant to— international community which it is meant to stand for and russia, is one of— meant to stand for and russia, is one of the — meant to stand for and russia, is one of the five permanent members of the security— one of the five permanent members of the security council shared a particular responsibility to respect

that charter, so, alarm, iwould say, _ that charter, so, alarm, iwould say, around _ that charter, so, alarm, iwould say, around the world.— that charter, so, alarm, iwould say, around the world. let's bring in hu:o, say, around the world. let's bring in hugo. who _ say, around the world. let's bring in hugo. who is — say, around the world. let's bring in hugo, who is our _ say, around the world. let's bring l in hugo, who is our correspondence in hugo, who is our correspondence in kyiv. denunciation of this four weeks by president zelensky. what is the ukrainian president doing at this moment? yes, so the president had an emergency meeting of his cabinet early this morning. and had an emergency meeting of his cabinet early this morning. and he said nothing _ cabinet early this morning. and he said nothing will— cabinet early this morning. and he said nothing will change. - cabinet early this morning. and he said nothing will change. that - cabinet early this morning. and he l said nothing will change. that there is no legal implication as a result of this announcement, no legitimacy and the international community will reject anything that is going to be announced and that the ukrainians will continue with the counter offensive to retake territory that is now under russian occupation and the ukrainians have been saying that the ukrainians have been saying that the so—called referendums that were held in these four regions in donetsk and luhansk and zaporizhzhia

in the south were a farce and an excuse by the kremlin to go ahead with the land excuse by the kremlin to go ahead with the [and grab, and they say nothing really matters and that these are regions that belong to ukraine and that the counter offensive continues, and we know in some parts of those areas that are about to be annexed by russia that fighting continues. we are paying attention to what is happening on lyman and donetsk, and that could be significant for the ukrainians if they retake that part of donetsk. you go, stay with us. james waterhouse is live at the scene of the attack today. i will come to the attack on a moment, but talking to people there, you are part of an area that will be annexed by russia. what are people saying there? there is a treat what are people saying there? there is a great deal _ what are people saying there? there is a great deal of _ what are people saying there? there is a great deal of confusion, - what are people saying there? there is a great deal of confusion, as you can appreciate. the city of zaporizhzhia is the region's capital, _ zaporizhzhia is the region's capital, but most of this area is

under— capital, but most of this area is under russian control, the majority of it, _ under russian control, the majority of it. so— under russian control, the majority of it. so for— under russian control, the majority of it, so for those in the city it seems — of it, so for those in the city it seems to— of it, so for those in the city it seems to be functioning as normal. they have _ seems to be functioning as normal. they have grown used to, overnight, mostly. _ they have grown used to, overnight, mostly, missile attacks, long—range strikes— mostly, missile attacks, long—range strikes from — mostly, missile attacks, long—range strikes from russia through their inability— strikes from russia through their inability to penetrate the front line through troops on the ground. people _ line through troops on the ground. people get used to that. then you -et people get used to that. then you get to— people get used to that. then you get to the — people get used to that. then you get to the front line where communities have been emptied, where you are _ communities have been emptied, where you are left _ communities have been emptied, where you are left with mostly older women, _ you are left with mostly older women, where men have gone to fight and children— women, where men have gone to fight and children have been taken to safety — and children have been taken to safety. and these are people whose homes _ safety. and these are people whose homes have been destroyed, and they worry— homes have been destroyed, and they worry about _ homes have been destroyed, and they worry about what an escalation could mean _ worry about what an escalation could mean. russia is trying to betray the area as _ mean. russia is trying to betray the area as the — mean. russia is trying to betray the area as the new border and has threatened an escalation, as you have _ threatened an escalation, as you have heard, and for people they think. _ have heard, and for people they think. yes, _ have heard, and for people they think, yes, things have been unimaginably bad and they are entertaining the idea that things could _ entertaining the idea that things could get worse, which for moscow is the very—

could get worse, which for moscow is the very point, but it doesn't take lon- the very point, but it doesn't take long to _ the very point, but it doesn't take long to people —— when you speak to people _ long to people —— when you speak to people to _ long to people —— when you speak to people to realise they have experience. it bubbles to the surface, _ experience. it bubbles to the surface, and this further adds to the misery, frankly that people have been living _ the misery, frankly that people have been living through. you the misery, frankly that people have been living through.— been living through. you are talking from zaporizhzhia _ been living through. you are talking from zaporizhzhia where _ been living through. you are talking from zaporizhzhia where i _ been living through. you are talking from zaporizhzhia where i think- been living through. you are talking from zaporizhzhia where i think 25 l from zaporizhzhia where i think 25 people have been confirmed to be killed and what happened there as far as you can please events together? it's a devastation that slowly unfolds, to be honest with you. behind me is a clear convoy of vehicles. this is a holding station for people that want to head back into russian occupied territories. we are told that these people wanted to collect relatives. you arrive and you find vehicles smashed up like this. and then you find you're walking through bodies dotted around which illustrate the blast caused by this missile strike. there are

people slowly being collected throughout the day. there