welcome to you both, starting with the observer, take us through this latest opinion poll on the front page. latest opinion poll on the front nae. latest opinion poll on the front “ae, t, , latest opinion poll on the front ae. t, , , a, latest opinion poll on the front nae. ,, , , , page. the latest poll replicates the icture we page. the latest poll replicates the picture we have — page. the latest poll replicates the picture we have seen _ page. the latest poll replicates the picture we have seen and - page. the latest poll replicates the picture we have seen and the - page. the latest poll replicates the picture we have seen and the leadl picture we have seen and the lead that the delta paul had two days ago. the conservatives going into the party conference at in deep trouble, the elite had been as large as 33 points but even the small gap in this most recent group have been nearly 20% and that is not the kind of situation you want going into your first party conference as leader, when you add a new prime minister and have potentially difficult times ahead with energy

price rises and a difficult winter with the nhs. that is the situation liz truss finds herself in. if you have been generous you would see last week would be a perfect storm in a good way for labour to conduct an opinion poll immediately after their party conference when all the attention has been on them and at the same time when britain is going through economic difficulties as a result of the situation with the pound but it does not get away from the fact the picture is bleak for conservatives and the underlying data without it is the question of who would be the best prime minister or the crucial question of which party can be trusted on the economy, these all paint a good picture for labour. the question for the conservatives as candidates on this around and if they can there's a turnaround start with liz truss's

leadership speech? the turnaround start with liz truss's leadership speech?— turnaround start with liz truss's leadership speech? the article also hiuuhlihts leadership speech? the article also highlights comments _ leadership speech? the article also highlights comments from - leadership speech? the article also highlights comments from a - leadership speech? the article also highlights comments from a tory . leadership speech? the article also i highlights comments from a tory peer who is a former chief of staff being extremely critical of the new prime minister and what she has done. this is an additional problem for liz truss_ is an additional problem for liz truss because it is notjust the polling — truss because it is notjust the polling which is canvassing the electorate, a poll is only a snapshot but the trend is certainly in one _ snapshot but the trend is certainly in one direction and we are imitative _ in one direction and we are imitative creatures, we tend to see what _ imitative creatures, we tend to see what is _ imitative creatures, we tend to see what is happening and join in because _ what is happening and join in because it makes us feel safer. what liz truss _ because it makes us feel safer. what liz truss also has to cope with is the fact— liz truss also has to cope with is the fact that within her party there is very— the fact that within her party there is very little support either for her as— is very little support either for her as a — is very little support either for her as a person or some of the policies — her as a person or some of the policies announced in the so—called not to— policies announced in the so—called not to many— policies announced in the so—called not to many budget. this is probably going _ not to many budget. this is probably going to _ not to many budget. this is probably going to be — not to many budget. this is probably going to be a feature of the

conference which is there will be various— conference which is there will be various noises off, people who were not liz _ various noises off, people who were not liz truss — various noises off, people who were not liz truss supporters, for example _ not liz truss supporters, for example it has been cited that michael— example it has been cited that michael gove will appear at fringe events— michael gove will appear at fringe events and he will have things to see and — events and he will have things to see and other non—liz truss supporters will also have a take on the events — supporters will also have a take on the events of the last week. you have _ the events of the last week. you have not— the events of the last week. you have notjust the events of the last week. you have not just to cope with what is happening — have not just to cope with what is happening outside your party but inside _ happening outside your party but inside as— happening outside your party but inside as well and that is probably the worst— inside as well and that is probably the worst situation going in to your very first _ the worst situation going in to your very first conference, you want to make _ very first conference, you want to make a _ very first conference, you want to make a good impression but if you know— make a good impression but if you know as _ make a good impression but if you know as soon step on the podium that half the _ know as soon step on the podium that half the people in the whole are not on your— half the people in the whole are not on your side, that will make it a uphill— on your side, that will make it a uphill battle. on your side, that will make it a uphill battle-— uphill battle. interested in the bi . . er uphill battle. interested in the bigger picture. _ uphill battle. interested in the bigger picture, the _ uphill battle. interested in the bigger picture, the polling - uphill battle. interested in the i bigger picture, the polling comes for weeks after she took over as prime minister but probably also two years away until a collection so

what do you make of it in that context? , ., ., , context? the question all posters ask is ethic _ context? the question all posters ask is ethic was _ context? the question all posters ask is ethic was a _ context? the question all posters ask is ethic was a general - context? the question all posters| ask is ethic was a general election tomorrow which party would you vote for and of course there is not so that long—term trends and try to speculate but it can only be speculated about where things may go. going into this week the conservatives have not been a head and a published hole for the entire year sought for 2022 they have not been ahead, you have to go to last december for the last time so this is not a random spike out of nowhere, it is part of a growing trend that has seen the labour leader gropes of the question is, the million—dollar question, how long will this last. is it a repeat of 1992 and the aftermath of black wednesday when the conservatives lost the reputation for economic management and did not regain it and

years later and led to the labour landslide. that may very well not be an election for two years but a the conservatives cannot recover the position they are in trouble. the particular difficulty as even the fear of a repeat of 1992 can be enough to stop the kind of disunity and discontent amongst conservative mps, many of whom did not vote for liz truss so it becomes a self—fulfilling prophecy and the conservatives enter a public opinion nosedive. a death spiral almost and that this would liz truss and her team will desperately want to avoid and some of the other headlines are and some of the other headlines are an attempt to reset and offer this as a new start and they hope to get things moving and a different direction. . things moving and a different direction. , ., , direction. the independent, tories tell trust u-turn _ direction. the independent, tories tell trust u-turn now— direction. the independent, tories tell trust u-turn now or _ direction. the independent, tories tell trust u-turn now or face - tell trust u—turn now or face rebellion. a stark warning as she starts the first body party conference as leader. late

starts the first body party conference as leader. we have to recornise conference as leader. we have to recognise that — conference as leader. we have to recognise that for _ conference as leader. we have to recognise that for some - conference as leader. we have to recognise that for some of - conference as leader. we have to recognise that for some of these | conference as leader. we have to - recognise that for some of these mps they will— recognise that for some of these mps they will be thinking about not necessarily her position or the constituents they represent but the fact they _ constituents they represent but the fact they have a seat which might be vulnerable — fact they have a seat which might be vulnerable. the fight in this headline _ vulnerable. the fight in this headline in the independent you have the phrase _ headline in the independent you have the phrase u—turn, and for probably remind _ the phrase u—turn, and for probably remind viewers that a very famous leader— remind viewers that a very famous leader and — remind viewers that a very famous leader and margaret thatcher said u-turn_ leader and margaret thatcher said u—turn want, this lady is not for turning — u—turn want, this lady is not for turning a — u—turn want, this lady is not for turning a deaf that is one thing many— turning a deaf that is one thing many people know about liz truss she has modelled so self—consciously on unconsciously on margaret thatcher so the _ unconsciously on margaret thatcher so the fact — unconsciously on margaret thatcher so the fact tory mps and suggesting she might _ so the fact tory mps and suggesting she might do a u—turn or quasi—clotting might reconsider that has proposals on his note budget, it could _ has proposals on his note budget, it could make — has proposals on his note budget, it could make an dig in because psychologically when people are in a

corner. _ psychologically when people are in a corner, they either retreat and roll over or— corner, they either retreat and roll over or it— corner, they either retreat and roll over or it makes them dig in further and it— over or it makes them dig in further and it is— over or it makes them dig in further and it is possible because of all the other— and it is possible because of all the other optics around this conference, the fact liz truss will want _ conference, the fact liz truss will want to _ conference, the fact liz truss will want to be — conference, the fact liz truss will want to be seen to be authoritative and not _ want to be seen to be authoritative and not be — want to be seen to be authoritative and not be pushed around by anybody that actually being called upon to do a u—turn as the very last thing she will— do a u—turn as the very last thing she will do — do a u-turn as the very last thing she will de— she will do. what do you make of what we know — she will do. what do you make of what we know of _ she will do. what do you make of what we know of her _ she will do. what do you make of what we know of her character i she will do. what do you make of| what we know of her character and whether she could change tack? brute what we know of her character and whether she could change tack? we do not reall whether she could change tack? we do rrot really know — whether she could change tack? we do not really know that _ whether she could change tack? we do not really know that much _ whether she could change tack? we do not really know that much about i whether she could change tack? , cf not really know that much about her, certainly the general public she domains relatively unknown and even close observers of politics amongst the commentariat would say she is not exactly distinguished herself and her positions until now and she has shown a hesitancy to make big decisions but also a preference for going with the wind so it is a very

difficult position on a u—turn because one person is u—turn is seen as a like of strong leadership but in another way it could be seen as following public opinion. you can be ignoring public opinion or the will of the people and just carry on regardless by refusing to u—turn. i think there is an attempt to channel the lady is not for turning on margaret thatcher but whether we actually see her sticking to her guns in all respects are whether we see what is best described as an adaptation of her position on some specific policies remains to be seen but whether that is enough to quell the fire building within the sceptics inside the conservative party remains to be seen. take us throu~h party remains to be seen. take us through the _ party remains to be seen. take us through the centre _ party remains to be seen. take us through the centre telegraph i party remains to be seen. take us through the centre telegraph take party remains to be seen. take us i through the centre telegraph take on what is happening with their headline. . .

what is happening with their headline. , , ,,�*, headline. this is liz truss's attempt — headline. this is liz truss's attempt to _ headline. this is liz truss's attempt to explain - headline. this is liz truss's attempt to explain what i headline. this is liz truss's| attempt to explain what her headline. this is liz truss's - attempt to explain what her thesis is and _ attempt to explain what her thesis is and you — attempt to explain what her thesis is and you could argue there is some merit _ is and you could argue there is some merit in _ is and you could argue there is some merit in pointing out the fact britain — merit in pointing out the fact britain has had a growth problem for some _ britain has had a growth problem for some time — britain has had a growth problem for some time, something liz truss has wanted _ some time, something liz truss has wanted to— some time, something liz truss has wanted to address, she mentioned it in every— wanted to address, she mentioned it in every hustings speech and the campaign — in every hustings speech and the campaign so that element of it was not a _ campaign so that element of it was not a surprise and in the telegraph on the _ not a surprise and in the telegraph on the eve — not a surprise and in the telegraph on the eve of the conference starting _ on the eve of the conference starting tomorrow she hopes i think to set— starting tomorrow she hopes i think to set out— starting tomorrow she hopes i think to set out her stall to reinforce the message that there was method in the message that there was method in the apparent madness of the note so-called — the apparent madness of the note so—called budget to actually kick—start some growth. obviously critics _ kick—start some growth. obviously critics of— kick—start some growth. obviously critics of hers and of kwasi kwarteng have been quick to point out the _ kwarteng have been quick to point out the actual impact particular in the markets of some of the policies they announced was catastrophic and therefore _ they announced was catastrophic and therefore perhaps that agenda for

growth _ therefore perhaps that agenda for growth will not be realised. nevertheless this is liz truss's attempt — nevertheless this is liz truss's attempt to set out her stall and explain — attempt to set out her stall and explain that it is notjust in the short—term the are looking at it longer— short—term the are looking at it longer term but the problem they have is— longer term but the problem they have is in— longer term but the problem they have is in 20191 longer term but the problem they have is in 2019 i think it is right that— have is in 2019 i think it is right that they— have is in 2019 i think it is right that they had a massive lead over labour— that they had a massive lead over labour amongst mortgage holders and yet if you _ labour amongst mortgage holders and yet if you have got policies that are cutting taxes for much more affluent— are cutting taxes for much more affluent people but working over the head people with a mortgage, fundamentally you will come across as hideously unfair and if liz truss thinks _ as hideously unfair and if liz truss thinks this— as hideously unfair and if liz truss thinks this is her argument what she seems _ thinks this is her argument what she seems to— thinks this is her argument what she seems to be — thinks this is her argument what she seems to be missing out on as any kind of— seems to be missing out on as any kind of compassion she has understood why people might be feeling _ understood why people might be feeling uncomfortable about the policies — feeling uncomfortable about the policies announced in the budget so

she has— policies announced in the budget so she has put— policies announced in the budget so she has put out half hot argument but that— she has put out half hot argument but that doesn't seem to be any understanding of what had critics are arguing. understanding of what had critics are arguing-— understanding of what had critics are arruuin. ~ , ., ., ., are arguing. whites move away from olitics and are arguing. whites move away from politics and it _ are arguing. whites move away from politics and it is _ are arguing. whites move away from politics and it is about _ are arguing. whites move away from politics and it is about ukraine, i politics and it is about ukraine, unleash nuclear weapons on ukraine a chechnya ally tells putin. this unleash nuclear weapons on ukraine a chechnya ally tells putin.— chechnya ally tells putin. this is one of the _ chechnya ally tells putin. this is one of the most _ chechnya ally tells putin. this is one of the most syphilis - chechnya ally tells putin. this is one of the most syphilis allies i chechnya ally tells putin. this is| one of the most syphilis allies of vladimir putin, the leader of chechnya day one of the most of allies. this is simply a strategic medication, a version of propaganda and putin is using him as a mouthpiece to try and sabre rattle to scare the west, a repeat of this is not bluffing and the article talks about the fact this is not an

empty threat to stock that could be construed as saying exactly what you save when it is an empty threat. that is the hope, the downside is that may be a painful misinterpretation and an accurate reflection of russian strategic priority and that nuclear weapons could be used, tactically against ukraine in the war as a reaction to the latest defeat the russian army has suffered and as a consequence of the annexation of certain areas of ukraine over the weekend. we are entering a new phase of the war in ukraine, one i do not imagine russia ever hoped they would have to get to but we are we are and i think the future potentially looks very bleak

as a result of comments such as this even effort they are empty threats and sabre rattling, it is a painful reflection of where the world is. terrifying notjust for reflection of where the world is. terrifying not just for the reflection of where the world is. terrifying notjust for the people of ukraine but around the world and world leaders who might have to deal with this, briefly. essen world leaders who might have to deal with this, briefly.— with this, briefly. even though you think it might _ with this, briefly. even though you think it might be _ with this, briefly. even though you think it might be a _ with this, briefly. even though you think it might be a bluff— with this, briefly. even though you think it might be a bluff you i with this, briefly. even though you think it might be a bluff you have i think it might be a bluff you have to take _ think it might be a bluff you have to take it— think it might be a bluff you have to take it seriously and then lies the potency but the timing of it must _ the potency but the timing of it must be — the potency but the timing of it must be linked to events earlier this evening in terms of the retreat russia _ this evening in terms of the retreat russia has— this evening in terms of the retreat russia has had to carry out which is part of— russia has had to carry out which is part of the — russia has had to carry out which is part of the donetsk region the annexed — part of the donetsk region the annexed 20 photos ago so it is about saving _ annexed 20 photos ago so it is about saying we _ annexed 20 photos ago so it is about saying we are still in power with a lot of— saying we are still in power with a lot of weaponry but for the west at is about— lot of weaponry but for the west at is about making sure nothing really -ets is about making sure nothing really gets used _ is about making sure nothing really gets used because we have these weapons — gets used because we have these

weapons as a deterrent to it as russia — weapons as a deterrent to it as russia tends to stockpile them so they can — russia tends to stockpile them so they can use them.— russia tends to stockpile them so they can use them. thank you for now for takin: they can use them. thank you for now for taking us — they can use them. thank you for now for taking us through _ they can use them. thank you for now for taking us through the _ they can use them. thank you for now for taking us through the first - for taking us through the first edition. we will be back at 11:30pm. goodbye for now. music plays sniffs ooh!

sniffs there was another — there was another whiff of something there. sniffing i don't know — grapefruits? is it the sea? today, i'm having a rather smelly experience while trying to solve a mystery from history. this is one of the most famous shipwrecks in the world. the mary rose was king henry viii's favourite warship, and in 1545, while battling the french, it sunk under mysterious circumstances. for more than 400 years, it lay on its side at the bottom of the river solent. but amazingly, the starboard half was preserved under the silt, which led, in 1982, to one of the most complex maritime salvage operations in history.