this is bbc news with the latest headlines. the uk's fiscal watchdog prepares to deliver its initial forecast for the economy to the chancellor kwasi kwarteng today — its full report will be published next month. the french president emmanuel macron has said he hopes for a new phase in relations with the uk following a meeting with liz truss in prague. social care providers in england warn that a complete overhaul of the system is needed to prevent millions of people from being left without support. the uk defies climate warnings by announcing a new licensing round for oil and gas exploration in the north sea. the king of thailand is to visit survivors of the horrific attack at a nursery which killed at least 38 people including many children.

two further explosions are heard as authorities continue to search the rubble in the city of zaporizhzhia more than 2a hours after a series of russian missiles hit civilian homes. and miracle baby — find out how robbie's life was transformed while she was still in the womb. the uk's independent economic forecaster the office for budget responsibility has submitted its initialjudgment on the prospects for the economy to the chancellor this morning. we won't know what is in the draft report until budget day, which is currently planned for late november, but there's lots of speculation about how this will affect the cost of living.

let's remind ourselves how we got here. two weeks ago kwasi kwarteng unveiled his mini—budget claiming the biggest tax cuts in a generation. the obr wasn't allowed to assess the economic impact of those tax cuts which spooked global markets leading to a drop in the pounds value. it has affected the mortgage market with interest rates on a typical five—yearfixed mortgage now topping 6% for the first time in 12 years. national grid has also warned homes they could face winter power cuts in a worst—case scenario. and due to some of the world's top oil—producing countries agreeing to cut their output, petrol prices could rise across the globe. cabinet minister nadhim zahawi has apologised for the turmoil that followed the mini budget last month. on the bbc�*s question time last night, he was challenged by fellow panellist piers morgan and pointed the finger at russia's president putin.

do you not believe that vladimir putin is using energy, which is where the inflation is coming from, where the inflation is coming from, where countries around the world are having to raise interest rates... with respect, what does this have to do with_ with respect, what does this have to do with a _ with respect, what does this have to do with a simple _ with respect, what does this have to do with a simple apology _ with respect, what does this have to do with a simple apology to - with respect, what does this have to do with a simple apology to the - do with a simple apology to the british— do with a simple apology to the british people. _ do with a simple apology to the british people, for— do with a simple apology to the british people, for the - do with a simple apology to the british people, for the train - do with a simple apology to the . british people, for the train wreck that has— british people, for the train wreck that has happened _ british people, for the train wreck that has happened over— british people, for the train wreck that has happened over the - british people, for the train wreck that has happened over the last . british people, for the train wreck i that has happened over the last ten days shopping — that has happened over the last ten days shopping lives _ that has happened over the last ten days shopping lives in— that has happened over the last ten days shopping lives in her— days shopping lives in her conference _ days shopping lives in her conference speech, - days shopping lives in her conference speech, she . days shopping lives in her- conference speech, she said, i get it. conference speech, she said, i get it are _ conference speech, she said, i get it are you — conference speech, she said, i get it. are you sorry? _ conference speech, she said, i get it. are you sorry? of— conference speech, she said, i get it. are you sorry?— it. are you sorry? of course i'm sor . it. are you sorry? of course i'm sorry- thank — it. are you sorry? of course i'm sorry. thank you! _ it. are you sorry? of course i'm sorry. thank you! by the - sorry. thank you! by the way, there is nothing wrong with saying i get it and i've listened and i have acted, and in 95% of what i want to do a and going to deliver and i will drop the 5%, that is a good thing. prime minister liz truss has been in prague for the first meeting of the new european political community group. yesterday she was asked if she plans to move closer to europe as a way to ease trade and boost growth. this is not about moving closer to europe, this is about working with europe on issues that we both face. and we both face rising energy

costs, that's why i took the decision to put in place the energy price guarantee, so people in britain weren't facing bills of up to £6,000. that's why we're working with our european neighbours on doing more on the north sea, on offshore wind, which i've been talking about today. we're working with our partners on more nuclear energy, so that we're never in the same position again of being dependent on russia, and russia using energy as leverage against free democracies. let's talk to our europe correspondentjessica parker. so, not about moving closer to europe, but working with europe, says liz truss, what is your reading of that summit in prague and what it means exactly for the uk? n of that summit in prague and what it means exactly for the uk?— means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there — means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there was _ means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there was a _ means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there was a lot _ means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there was a lot of— means exactly for the uk? i mean, i think there was a lot of scepticism i think there was a lot of scepticism about this meeting and whether it would really deliver anything but what it does seem to have delivered is an improved relationship, for now, between the uk and france. we

havejust now, between the uk and france. we have just heard liz truss talking, one of the things that she is coming back to the uk with is the potential re—admittance of the uk to the north sea energy co—operation, which means that they work together on things like interconnect is, offshore wind as well. but she also had this bilateral with emmanuel macron, the french president, where they also agreed to step up their efforts to tackle people trafficking, particularly those small boat crossings across the channel, so, they have agreed to come up with what they described as an ambitious package of measures this autumn, we did not really get any details. certainly there does seem to have been, after quite a lot of bitterness following brexit and then some rows between the uk and france over things like migrant crossings and fishing rights as well, and defence contracts, they did seem to actually get on yesterday and move that relationship forward to the extent that there is even going to

be a uk france summit at some point next year. so, liz truss is anxious not to say that she is moving closer to europe, of course she is trying to europe, of course she is trying to strike a eurosceptic know in the conservative leadership campaign, of course she didn't actually vote for brexit back in the 2016 referendum but i think certainly she has come here with an attitude of trying to build some bridges and has left with a slightly closer relationship with emmanuel macron who himself last night was pretty warm about the relationship, i was at a press conference that he was holding for that and he almost seemed a bit sentimental about the united kingdom and he said he hoped that there was and he said he hoped that there was a new phase of that relationship coming down the track. and a new phase of that relationship coming down the track.- a new phase of that relationship coming down the track. and we are 'ust coming down the track. and we are just looking — coming down the track. and we are just looking at _ coming down the track. and we are just looking at some _ coming down the track. and we are just looking at some live _ coming down the track. and we are just looking at some live pictures i just looking at some live pictures now, as we talk to you, jessica, emmanuel macron there, with others, heading into another day of talks, what can we expect today? yes. heading into another day of talks, what can we expect today? yes, so, esterda what can we expect today? yes, so, yesterday was _

what can we expect today? yes, so, yesterday was the _ what can we expect today? yes, so, yesterday was the european - what can we expect today? yes, so, | yesterday was the european political community, which is more than a0 nations from across the european continent, today, we have switched to a more old—fashioned eu meeting of the 27 member states, something they will be haggling over a lot is energy, europe facing very much difficult challenges on energy prices, some countries have been pushing for a gas price cap, other countries much more nervous about that, worrying it could distort the market and worrying that it means that valuable liquefied natural gas might go to other countries rather than europe, and so they will have a debate about that today, but very much an ongoing, massive issue, the central issue really for the eu over the last month also has been trying to build up gas storage and tackle energy crisis and find ways to dampen those prices for businesses and households, and that is they discussed today. find and households, and that is they discussed today.— discussed today. and we will be ho - in: discussed today. and we will be hoinr to discussed today. and we will be hoping to talk— discussed today. and we will be hoping to talk to _ discussed today. and we will be hoping to talk to our _ discussed today. and we will be hoping to talk to our economics j hoping to talk to our economics correspondent andrew verity in a few moments to get his take on all of this. that wasjessica parker in

prague, where that summit continues. let's now bring in the conservative mp and chairman of the treasury committee, mel stride. good morning, do you welcome the outcome so far of this summit in prague and perhaps more importantly the mood music there?— the mood music there? yeah, i think this is very — the mood music there? yeah, i think this is very positive. _ the mood music there? yeah, i think this is very positive. we _ the mood music there? yeah, i think this is very positive. we need - the mood music there? yeah, i think this is very positive. we need to - this is very positive. we need to work closely with our allies and near neighbours, particularly the major economies within the eu, because we are all in the same boat when it comes to pressure on our energy costs. so i think the thawing of the mood between mr macron and liz truss is very much to be welcomed. liz truss is very much to be welcomed-— liz truss is very much to be welcomed. ,, ., u , ., welcomed. do you accept that distinction _ welcomed. do you accept that distinction that _ welcomed. do you accept that distinction that liz _ welcomed. do you accept that distinction that liz truss - welcomed. do you accept that l distinction that liz truss made, welcomed. do you accept that - distinction that liz truss made, she said it wasn't about moving closer to europe but working with it? yes. to europe but working with it? yes, because we've _ to europe but working with it? yes, because we've left _ to europe but working with it? yes, because we've left the _ to europe but working with it? yes because we've left the european union and that was a decision taken by the british people, and that has been honoured, which is right, but that doesn't mean that we are no longer closely connected to europe and that we do not significantly

share common values and common challenges, as we are facing with ukraine and put in and energy costs. so i think this is a very positive step. it so i think this is a very positive ste -. , ' . so i think this is a very positive ste, , ' . ., so i think this is a very positive ste. , , . ., ., step. it is difficult at the moment to say what _ step. it is difficult at the moment to say what exactly _ step. it is difficult at the moment to say what exactly this _ step. it is difficult at the moment to say what exactly this will - step. it is difficult at the moment| to say what exactly this will mean in terms of the energy crisis the uk, the rest of europe, is facing, what it means in terms of the wider economic outlook, but do you think that this can only be seen as a positive move when it comes to tackling the common crisis of the cost—of—living? tackling the common crisis of the cost-of-living?_ tackling the common crisis of the cost-of-living? yes, because we are interconnected _ cost-of-living? yes, because we are interconnected in _ cost-of-living? yes, because we are interconnected in terms _ cost-of-living? yes, because we are interconnected in terms of— cost-of-living? yes, because we are interconnected in terms of the - interconnected in terms of the energy market, we are getting gas through pipelines from the european continent, we are also receiving and supplying electricity back both ways, in fact, through time, so i think it is really important that everybody gets together and worked out the best way through, and that

is about, to a degree, how do you control demand, particularly at peak times, and there has been a debate about that, and also how do we protect a supply to the extent that we can, and also longer term, how do we can, and also longer term, how do we adjust our economy so that we are more resilient? and less vulnerable to these kind of situations in the future. and obviously that is a longer term thing that really important because these things longer term thing that really important bec�* out these things longer term thing that really i important bec- th-ngs longer term thing that really importan as re. th e; longer term thing that really importan as we .th e; longer term thing that really importan as w we lth 7; longer term thing that really importan as w we are i longer term thing that really importar as w we are s best stages the longer term thing that really importar as w we 3"?f¥3§+ siege. the 7 prospects the treasury, this chancellor. to the treasury. this , clearly chancellor. to the treasury. this . clearly we have heard from morning. clearly we have heard from you that you wanted the obr to have made a forecast much earlier, before that many budget couple of weeks ago, would you like to see the contents of this initial forecast, in normal times of course we would

not necessarily get that, but given what has happened over the last couple of weeks, you think it is important that we do actually hear what is in this initial forecast? no, i don't think so, actually. because the process towards putting together a full forecast, which we involves an initial process between the treasury and the office for budget responsibility, in which ideas are exchanged and they look at what the forecast looks like on one basis and then they may change some of the elements, and they work their way towards the full forecast, and i think it is right and proper that thatis think it is right and proper that that is done in private between those two bodies. but the important thing is you have mentioned is that we get this obr forecast as soon as possible, the full forecast. that could be as early as the end of this month although it is currently slated in for the 23rd of november, which is important because providing the forecast is a positive one, and

the forecast is a positive one, and the markets view it as a signalling fiscal responsibility and credibility, then some of the pressures on things like the pound and interest rates can then be eased which will matter to millions of people up and down the country when it comes to their mortgages. providing it is a positive one, you say, but because of what some people perceive as a lack of transparency in the earlier process, that the obr was not asked to make a forecast, thatis was not asked to make a forecast, that is why i am asking you today is it not important in this particular instance that we see the direction of travel from this initial forecast, with all the caveats that of course it is not the full and final version, of course it is not the full and finalversion, it of course it is not the full and final version, it is about trust, it is about building trust and transparency with the public, surely? transparency with the public, surel ? ., transparency with the public, surel? ., , , ~ transparency with the public, surel? ., , , ,, ., transparency with the public, surel? ., , ,, ., , surely? no, because i think what is reruired surely? no, because i think what is required here _ surely? no, because i think what is required here is _ surely? no, because i think what is required here is certainty, - required here is certainty, uncertainty arrives the full forecast has been provided. it is quite possible that in this forecast that the chancellor will be looking at today, that not all of the measures that they have been considering are even included at this point, so it is part of a

processor so i don't think it would be right to make public that particular part of process, i you've got to allow treasury officials and the obr and the chancellor to work their way towards that. —— i think you've got to allow. but as i say, the full forecast could be ready in as little as a few weeks' time. and i believe it should be coming forward at that point instead of waiting another 3—a weeks until the 23rd of november. because we need to settle those markets and provide that reassurance at the earliest possible opportunity. mei that reassurance at the earliest possible opportunity. mel stride mp, chairman of the _ possible opportunity. mel stride mp, chairman of the treasury _ possible opportunity. mel stride mp, chairman of the treasury select - chairman of the treasury select committee, thank you very much for your time today. let's get more from our economics correspondent andrew verity. good morning to you, andy. going back to that summit in prague first of all, how much impact do you think this warming up or thawing out of uk french relations will have on the

wider economy here, particularly on theissue wider economy here, particularly on the issue of energy?— the issue of energy? well, in a way if there is co-operation _ the issue of energy? well, in a way if there is co-operation on - the issue of energy? well, in a way if there is co-operation on energy, | if there is co—operation on energy, which is what they are saying there will be, then that holds out the prospect of greater energy security. i don't think it will have an immediate economic impact, that will be more to do with what is going to happen with brexit and all the issues that there have been for example with the northern ireland protocol. if closer co—operation with france and the leaders of the leading european nations like france and germany means that those things are discussed and all of the wrinkles are a ryan dow, that could help economic growth a bit, but the real thing holding back economic growth as you know is inflation, and that the attempt to quell inflation, higher interest rates, et cetera, and also just the sheer amount we are spending on energy which means we have less money to spend on everything else. so i think it is a good sign and markets will be encouraged that leaders are meeting but we can't really expect any immediate economic effect. lets look at that initial —

immediate economic effect. lets look at that initial forecast _ immediate economic effect. lets look at that initial forecast from _ immediate economic effect. lets look at that initial forecast from the - at that initial forecast from the office for budget responsibility, which i havejust been office for budget responsibility, which i have just been talking about with the chair of the treasury select committee, we know the obr is an independent forecaster, for our audience, what is the purpose of this initial report and what impact will something like this have on people's every day lives?- will something like this have on people's every day lives? well, the --urose is people's every day lives? well, the purpose is to _ people's every day lives? well, the purpose is to have _ people's every day lives? well, the purpose is to have credible - purpose is to have credible estimates of what effect any change in government economic policy or other physical events is going to have on the economy, on inflation and on the public finances. —— fiscal events. we report this every time we report a budget, and it was missing this time. and that is one of the big things which really knocked markets off balance and meant that people sold uk government bonds, and that is what hasrates. so, if there can be a credible forecast, that should help but of course it depends on what the forecast says. we have got inflation

at 9.9%, rishi sunak said in his leadership campaign that liz truss's plans would be inflationary, and if the obr confirms that says that actually it is going to make inflation worse, and they forecast inflation worse, and they forecast inflation getting worse than it otherwise would have done, it is already expected to get back into double digits, if they say the government plans make this worse, then obviously that is a terrible blow for the government and might be one of the reasons possibly, certainly their opponents have speculated, it might be one of the reasons they didn't publish it when kwasi kwarteng gave his fiscal event. so it is partly to do with what it says about inflation, but also growth, because the government has now put all of its political capital on getting growth going. if the obr turns around as some economists have done and says actually i think your plans will make it harder to grow the economy because they have. interest rates and people are spending more on their mortgages and have less money to spend on everything else, we are throwing money at energy bills, throwing money at energy bills, throwing money at mortgages, all

those other things that we would like but we might not otherwise buy because they are not essential, there will be less consumer sentiment to go and make those sorts of purchases. and then of course the other thing is the public finances. everyone expects that the government was going to have to spend a lot of money helping people with energy bills, but if it then sends the public finances were bleak with tax cuts on top making them even more wobbly for the next few years, and the obr does not have good things to say about that, then that also will not reassure markets. so there is a fine line between releasing something which the markets need to reassure it and discombobulating the markets again with the new figures. andrew verity, our economics correspondent. social care providers are warning that millions of people could be left without support, unless there is a complete overhaul of the system. care england, which is the body that represents independent services,

says a proper vision is needed, or the nhs "will be on its knees". jeremy cooke reports. are we ready for our lovely...? wendy hughes is bringing care into the community... your medication, sweetheart. really? whey—aye. ..to mark, an ex—navy diver now living with dementia. that's fabulous. for mark and his family, this is priceless help. i'll do the dishes. next stop the bathroom. but today's poll by ipsos mori for bbc news suggests more than 70% of people aged over 55 are not confident that care is reaching many of those who need it. a shortage of staff like wendy lies at the heart of what many call the care crisis. let's go. better wages would help. often wendy's appointments run over, and it's time she doesn't get paid for. my wage isn't the living wage any more. that's rubbish. on paper, it's a living wage but it's not. notjust me, every other carer out there. everybody doing this kind of work. the government says it doesn't set pay levels for care workers, and that it's a matter for local authorities and other care providers.

but it is planning to invest £15 million to recruit more staff from overseas. the care sector wants radical, urgent change. if we get this wrong, there'll be hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people who will be in crisis. we'll have an nhs that will be absolutely clogged with people and the entire system, both health and social care, will be on its knees. so the stakes here are extremely high. it's been a year since the government announced plans to introduce a national insurance levy in part to help improve adult social care. wonderful. that's now been scrapped, leaving carers and care providers asking where the money will come from. jeremy cooke, bbc news, newcastle. now we can have a cup of coffee. a 1a—year—old boy has been charged with murder over the fatal stabbing of 1a—year—old in gateshead. tomasz oleszak died in the early hours of tuesday after being injured on monday night. ukraine's emergency services say 11 people are now known to have died

in russian missile strikes on the city of zaporizhzhia on thursday. rescue teams pulled 21 people from the rubble of two buildings and continue to search for victims. local authorities say two more attacks took place overnight, injuring one person, and that a drone was heard over the city for the first time. with me is our diplomatic correspondent paul adams. what more can you tell us about that series of attacks overnight and indeed yesterday and fears for more to come? ., ., ., ., ~ ., to come? yeah, good morning, annita. the death toll — to come? yeah, good morning, annita. the death toll now— to come? yeah, good morning, annita. the death toll now from _ to come? yeah, good morning, annita. the death toll now from those - the death toll now from those attacks yesterday has risen to 12. we were at the scene of the large apartment block, five—storey block, that was hit yesterday morning, more than 2a hours ago, we were there late last night and it was clear

that rescue work was going to continue, recovery work, i should say, at that site throughout the night, because there was a clear belief that there are bodies still to be found in this vast tile of rubbish and rubble left by that attack. so, that is a continuing situation. in the last couple of hours, we have had more air raid sirens, and more explosions. in the distance, it is thought that if you kilometres away, there was a missile that landed close to another apartment block. we have seen video of a sizeable craterjust outside that building at a lot of damage to the outside of the building, it appears to have been a lucky escape, but this seems to be part of a kind of emerging pattern here in zaporizhzhia now which is notjust hitting what they call infrastructure targets, whether those are industrial sites or railways or port facilities or that kind of thing, but actually missiles that are landing on people's homes,

in an attempt frankly to terrorise the population of this city. so, that appears to be something that is a new phenomenon for this city, and maybe it's a reflection of the state of mind of the russian forces, as they experience a lot of setbacks on they experience a lot of setbacks on the battlefield. just one indication of the nature of those setbacks, the british ministry of defence now estimates that more than half of ukraine's tanks have been captured from russian forces in the course of this war. that is a staggering number, and it really gives you a bit of an indication as to how the tide of the conflict on the battlefield at least has changed significantly. 50. battlefield at least has changed significantly-— battlefield at least has changed sianificantl . , ., significantly. so, 'ust give me that statistic again, _ significantly. so, just give me that statistic again, so _ significantly. so, just give me that statistic again, so we're _ significantly. so, just give me that statistic again, so we're talking i statistic again, so we're talking about russian tanks being captured by the ukrainians? yes.

about russian tanks being captured by the ukrainians?— by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians have been asking _ by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians have been asking for— by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians have been asking for tanks - by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians have been asking for tanks and - by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians. have been asking for tanks and heavy equipment since war began, but they have also been capturing it, they captured some of it on the outskirts of kyiv early on in the conflict, they captured more around kharkiv in they captured more around kharkiv in the north—east, and particularly in the north—east, and particularly in the last few weeks, in that north—eastern area, which appears to have been the scene of a rout, in which russian forces and russian—backed are separatist forces have simply dropped their equipment and fled, an awful lot of equipment has been picked up in the process. it is a slightly different situation from the situation down in the south by kherson, where the russian withdrawal opinions to a pain rather more orderly, not resulting in vast quantities of equipment being left by the roadside. but a rather more orderly withdrawal. but the end

result of all of this is, as i say, more than half of ukraine's tanks are now captured, rather than tax they had before or anything that has been delivered since the conflict began. paul adams, our diplomatic correspondent, in zaporizhzhia, thank you. the king of thailand will visit survivors of an attack at a nursery school which left 37 people dead including many children. officials say the attacker was a former police officer who later killed his family before turning the gun on himself. dan johnson reports. the number of coffins gives some sense of the scale of loss here. but it is the young age of many victims which has most shocked this country. it's also left a community and so many families in grief. at least 23 children were killed, some just two years old, having a lunchtime nap when the attack began. there is astonishment that this was carried out by a parent

of one of the children, armed with a gun and a knife. translation: it all. went down really fast. he was slashing the knife. he didn't use the gun. he kept slashing in there. it's all by a knife. he was in the middle of reloading the gun. i held my hands up and begged for mercy. i didn't know what to do. the 3a—year—old former police sergeant was sacked injune for using drugs and was awaiting a court verdict. he drove home after the attack and killed his wife and child before taking his own life. more parents have been arriving this morning to see the scene for themselves. and later the king and the prime minister are due to visit. this is a quiet part of rural thailand, where people are struggling to comprehend what can have motivated such violence against the most innocent young lives. dan johnson, bbc news. there will be more oil and gas

exploration in the north sea after the government announced it is offering up to 100 new development licenses to companies. ministers say the projects will boost energy security and support skilled jobs but the decision is at odds with climate scientists. here's our environment correspondentjonah fisher. these new north sea licences will take years to yield results, and they'll have very little impact on the oil and gas prices that we all pay. this licensing round is part of the government's response to a crisis triggered by russia's invasion of ukraine. it's aimed at reducing our dependence on imports of fossil fuels from abroad. about 100 licences are expected to be issued with parts of the north sea off norfolk, lincolnshire and yorkshire set to be fast—tracked because they can start producing faster. so how does exploring for the fossil fuels that heat our planet fit in with the government's promises to fight climate change? jacob rees—mogg, the business

secretary, says fossil fuels are still needed as we transition to renewable energy, and that the uk's production methods are cleaner, meaning new north sea oil and gas will have less of a carbon footprint. that won't reassure climate scientists. they say greenhouse gas emissions are already leading to more extreme weather events like heatwaves and drought. the advice of the united nations and the international energy agency is clear. if we want to keep global temperature rises under 1.5 degrees, then there can be no more fossil fuel projects. the first licences from this new north sea round are expected to be issued early next year. jonah fisher, bbc news. just coming into us, we are hearing

that the national crime agency investigating the smuggle of people across the channel in small boats have arrested a 30—year—old albanian national in london, he was detained in the surbiton area as part of a preplanned operation, says the national crime agency. it is suspected of involvement in an organised crime group coordinating the movement of people from france to the uk. phone's, a tablet and a quantity of cash were also seized during the arrest operation. and the man has been questioned by nca officers on suspicion of facilitating illegal immigration. that is just coming into us from the national crime agency. prince harry and sir eltonjohn are among a group of high profile public figures who have started legal action against the publishers of the daily mail and the mail on sunday. the group says associated newspapers obtained stories about them by invading their privacy. associated newspapers called the accusations defamatory. our home affairs correspondent tom symonds has the story. veterans of the fight against media intrusion.

now, prince harry, eltonjohn and his husband david furnish, liz hurley and sadie frost have combined forces to take on the mail, along with, and this was a surprise, baroness doreen lawrence. she's had a warm relationship with the daily mail. two of her son stephen's killers were jailed in 2012. for more than a decade, the mail helped keep the case in the headlines. but this is what the lawyers for her and the others now say associated newspaperjournalists have been involved with — bugging cars and homes, listening to private telephone calls, paying police officers for sensitive information, obtaining medical and financial records. more serious allegations even than phone hacking, according to a lawyer, who's been involved in legal action against associated newspapers. they are highly intrusive. they are a means of delving

into the private lives of people, and private lives, which are protected by statute under the human rights act and by convention by the european convention on human rights. so it is a gross invasion of privacy. if these things occurred, and it would be absolutely right and proper if they did occur that associated newspapers and hopefully some of their senior figures are held to account. phone hacking was not practised by the mail on sunday or the daily mail. that was the former mail editor in 2012. yesterday's statement from associated newspapers... baroness lawrence had been persuaded to endorse lies, the company said. it's headed for court and it's likely to take years to resolve. if the mail's owners were to lose, the stakes are enormous.

tom symonds, bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather, with matt taylor. good morning. a quick look at northern ireland reveals much of the story. early rain is cleared, the surgeon came out but you can see there are still some showers and that will be the case for quite a few of you today. showers is having a battery across what western scotla nd a battery across what western scotland and northern ireland. but it is this band which will produce the longest spells of heavy rain. some intense downpours, dusty and squally winds. changing direction quite rapidly. clearing the way this afternoon, pushing through the west of wales into the midlands. the south and east should stay largely dry. the channel islands, isolated showers. a warmer day, after 19 or 20. a fairly fresh breeze will make you feel cooler elsewhere. sunshine and showers this afternoon, some staying dry after this morning. as we head towards this evening rush

hour, it is from devon and connell through the south east midlands towards literature in the wash where we will see a brief spell of heavy rain, that will work its way southwards and eastwards and as it clears the south—east through tonight and clearing skies, it will be colder, one or two showers to the north and west, temperatures in rural areas in single figures. more details later. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: the uk's fiscal watchdog prepares to deliver its initial forecast for the economy to the chancellor kwasi kwarteng today — its full report will be published next month. the french president emmanuel macron has said he hopes for a �*new phase' in relations with the uk, following a meeting with liz truss in prague. social care providers in england warn that a complete overhaul of the system is needed to prevent millions of people from being left without support. the uk defies climate warnings by announcing a new licensing round for oil and gas exploration in the north sea.

a statue of jack leslie, the first black footballer to be selected for england, will be unveiled today at plymouth argyle's stadium. sport — and for a full round—up from the bbc sport centre, here's olly foster. good morning. wales and scotland have kept their women's football world cup hopes alive. both needed extra time to come through their play—off semi—finals last night. the scots beat austria 1—0 at hampden and it was the same scoreline for wales against bosnia—herzegovina. jane dougall reports. a record crowd at the cardiff city stadium, filled with fans eager to watch wales women shine. all willing them to take a step closer to the world cup. 1a,500 fans held their breath as wales did everything to score against bosnia—herzegovina.

second chance! hits the post. wales couldn't have been closer. but it didn't seem to be their night. four times they had the ball in the net, every one ruled offside. how many times can this happen to wales! it took extra time for wales star strikerjess fishlock to do this. itjust had to be! brilliant finish from a brilliant, brilliant player! worth the wait. that goal means they now travel to switzerland for an historic play—off final match. we the done. we . the i done. scotland & m done. scotland we . the done. scotland were also - we . the done. scotland - were also watching minutes without a goal against 90 minutes without a goal against

austria but in extra time abbie harrison headed them into the world cup day too. even victories next tuesday wouldn't guarantee a place in next year's world cup finals. it's a bit complicated, go to the bbc sport website and it explains all. the lionesses have already qualified for next year's the lionesses have already qualified for next yea r�*s world the lionesses have already qualified for next year's world cup. the european champions take on the world champions the usa tonight at a sold—out wembley stadium. the first time they played there since they beat germany since the euro finals injuly. both teams wearing teal coloured armbands in solidarity with sexual abuse victims following the publication of a report into abuse in the us domestic league. there's no report that came out here, but i'm sure that there could be one, just as there could be one in likely every single country,

which is a really sad reality. but i feel like there'sjust so much solidarity between the things that we have to fight for. so obviously there will come a time when we would be competing on the pitch, but i feel like everything before that, we're all fighting together for the same things. manchester united's manager erik ten hag admits his team isn't that good, and lacks intensity. it's after they survived a scare in cyprus in the europa league. united were 1—0 down at half—time, to omonia nicosia, but two goals from marcus rashford and one from anthony martial spared their blushes. this filly every performance in cyprus, erik ten haag gave a very honest assessment of where his team is at. we are not that good. we have seen on sunday and we have to do much better. and especially i think the main problem is... and that is what we did in games before, much better intensity. we have to bring, every game,

the intensity on the pitch. while arsenal will head into their weekend match against liverpool full of confidence after beating norwegian side bodo glimt 3—0, at the emirates, also in the europa league. gabrieljesus set up fabio vera for the last goal. while in the next competition down, the europa conference league, west ham beat belgian side anderlecht1—0, but hearts lost to fiorentina. and in the same competition, hearts had defender lewis neilson sent off, as they slipped to third in their group, after losing 3—0 to italian side fiorentina, at tynecastle. it is the japanese grand prix on sunday, we have had second practice in the last hour or so, mercedes mastered the wet conditions. george russell outpacing his team—mate lewis hamilton. max verstappen ended the day in third. it is a written

formula 1 to the second since 2019. that's all the sport for now. you can find more on all those stories on the bbc sport website. that's bbc.co.uk/sport. dan biggar has announced he will leave northampton saints at the end of the season. you can also get all the build—up to the women's rugby union world cup that starts overnight, northe union world cup that starts overnight, nor the home nations are in it. all the details on the bbc sport website. more now on our top story, the uk's independent economic forecaster, the office for budget responsibility, has delivered their initial forecast for the uk economy to the chancellor this morning. there are concerns from local councils about funding, not least since the chancellor's so—called mini budget. let's speak now to councillor and senior vice chair of the local government association board — shaun davies. thank you forjoining us. talk us through your concerns and your fears

about how services might be impacted. it about how services might be impacted-— about how services might be imacted. , . about how services might be imacted. ,., , . , ., ., impacted. it is a perfect storm for councils this _ impacted. it is a perfect storm for councils this year, _ impacted. it is a perfect storm for councils this year, we _ impacted. it is a perfect storm for councils this year, we are - impacted. it is a perfect storm for councils this year, we are seeing l councils this year, we are seeing funding being ripped up now as inflation goes through the roof, the pay goes through the roof and demands are going through the roof. we are seeing £3.5 billion pressure crossed all councils in england this year alone and next year as councils start to set the budget, clearly that will be a huge challenge. councils are predicting a £a billion shortfall next year and hereafter. 0f shortfall next year and hereafter. of course this comes on top of the last ten years were councils wouldn't have been notjust —— i wouldn't have been notjust —— i would have been notjust cut to the bulb are cut through the bone, huge reductions in council grants, circa 15 billion across the council sector. this is at a time when councils are being asked to lead

economic development, lead levelling—up and lead to things like social care. all those things cannot be done when resources are being reduced time and time again. tote be done when resources are being reduced time and time again. we have 'ust been reduced time and time again. we have just been reporting _ reduced time and time again. we have just been reporting on _ reduced time and time again. we have just been reporting on the _ reduced time and time again. we have just been reporting on the crisis - reduced time and time again. we have just been reporting on the crisis in - just been reporting on the crisis in social care as well. on a practical level, talk us through what that will look like in terms of things not being done, services not being provided, some services presumably having to be abandoned potentially, don't know if that is what you're looking at?— don't know if that is what you're lookin: at? ., , ,, ., looking at? your viewers will know that over the _ looking at? your viewers will know that over the last _ looking at? your viewers will know that over the last ten _ looking at? your viewers will know that over the last ten years - looking at? your viewers will know that over the last ten years things| that over the last ten years things have changed dramatically. libraries being closed, sports centres been closed stop less litter being collected, less roads being repaired. equally there are hidden services for a lot of years but if you are reliant on adult social care you are reliant on adult social care you have seen dramatic differences over the last ten years and if you are a family who is dependent on

your local council for safeguarding children that service has changed dramatically too. over the last ten years we have had those significant cuts, far greater than any other vital department. we have delivered those cuts. there is simply nowhere else to go. if these cuts do make themselves into communities, that will see dramatic differences in people will see it, they will see less litter being collected, less roads being repaired and services being cut back to the bare minimum. the frustrating thing for councils is that the government are saying that every government department, every bit of government is a growth agency. you can't power local areas, you can't grow local areas without local councils being resourced and leading that growth. every council in the country once their area to do better than it is currently. it better than it is currently. it sounds from everything you are saying you're far beyond the point

of any efficiencies being able to be made. . , ,., , ~ of any efficiencies being able to be made. , , . ., of any efficiencies being able to be made. absolutely. we have cut throu . h made. absolutely. we have cut through the _ made. absolutely. we have cut through the bone, _ made. absolutely. we have cut through the bone, there - made. absolutely. we have cut through the bone, there is - made. absolutely. we have cut - through the bone, there is nowhere else to go. the government need to own this. if their mini budget, which has crashed the economy, is going to have to be paid for, local government are not going to be in a position to be able to contribute to the savings targets unless the government and the fact that that will mean higher council tax bills, higher rental on council homes and less services. residents are already feeling that they are paying more locally and getting less and that issue will only exaggerate over the next couple of years. we need a long—term funding settlement to take us into considering the rising cost of inflation, the rising cost of living, give you an example, my own foodbank in telford has seen a 110% increase in demand over the last

couple of months. it has already given out more food this year that my last year, than by the time this year and donations are dropping. so what is happening? the demand will increase as people see their mortgages and rents go up and sadly maybe even lose theirjobs as the economy gets worse. maybe even lose their “obs as the economy gets worse._ maybe even lose their “obs as the economy gets worse. thank you very much. rail firm avanti west coast has been warned it needs to "drastically improve services" after its contract to run the london to glasgow line was extended byjust six months. the decision means it will continue to run services until next april, the department for transport said. avanti has come under fire after cutting the number of trains between london and manchester by a third in august. the company has apologised for problems caused by the reduced services. the president of the software giant microsoft has told the bbc that the west needs to be vigilant about the security of undersea cables carrying internet traffic.

it follows last week's attacks on the nordstream pipeline that carries gas from russia to germany. brad smith said cyber—defences had held up well in the days following russia's invasion of ukraine, but he warned that with moscow suffering setbacks on the battlefield, attacks in cyberspace might again escalate. here's our security correspondent gordon corera. as russia invaded ukraine, the expectation was that destructive cyber attacks would accompany the military campaign, aiming to cripple the country. they did not materialise, but that was not for a lack of trying. that's according to the president of microsoft who spoke to the bbc about what the company has been seeing. so far in this war, defensive technology has been winning the battle against offensive technology. microsoft has been involved directly in protecting some ukrainian systems. it is in effect part of what, frankly, has sustained ukraine,

not just with microsoft but with some other tech companies. the russians were able to launch a missile against the ukrainian government data centre. we'd already duplicated and copied and moved that data into other data centres across europe. microsoft's warning, echoed by western intelligence officials, is that the risk has not gone away and could even increase. as russia's military faces setbacks on the battlefield, the theory is it could escalate in cyberspace or by targeting infrastructure. last month the nord stream gas pipeline was apparently sabotaged, many believed by russia. the concern is that other crucial systems could also be hit. at a time when people see what looks like sabotage on a natural gas pipeline, we have to even be even more mindful about potential sabotage of network cables for the internet and the like.

the good news is a company like microsoft, we build it in such redundancy that if one cable or two cables go down, we have a third that can sustain all the necessary network traffic and we can repair the first or second. but it is a time when we have to step back and be very mindful, where are the risks, how do we address them? cyber war may not have broken out yet but the message from those watching closely is now is not the time to stop worrying that it still might. gordon corera, bbc news. the new head of the metropolitan police, sir mark rowley, has vowed to remove anyone who damages the integrity of the force — after a bbc investigation found evidence of racist messages in a whatsapp group with recently—serving police officers. one of the former officers, rob lewis — who was also a home office official — has been arrested. sir mark has called the content �*shameful�* and says the matter is being taken very seriously.

we're tackling this. i'm sort of currently building and launching a massive new team — an anti—corruption and abuse command — that is going to take the proactive tactics we use against crime to take on the people who do these sorts of ghastly things in the organisation. because i recognise, if i'm to rebuild trust from the public, the starting point is our integrity, and i have to take on those who corrupt it. the nobel prize for literature has been awarded to the french author annie ernaux. money—macro and congratulated her, calling her voice that of the freedom of women and of the forgotten. she has dedicated her body of work to examining her own life as well as women's lived experiences. and now

the skill annie ernaux brought to those novels has been rewarded with the nobel prize for literature, making her the first french woman to win the award. ilrtui’ith making her the first french woman to win the award-— win the award. with courage and clinical maturity _ win the award. with courage and clinical maturity and _ win the award. with courage and clinical maturity and colours, - win the award. with courage and| clinical maturity and colours, the contradictions of social experience, describing shame, humiliation, jealousy or inability to see who we are. she has achieved something admirable and enduring. her novels have rewritten _ admirable and enduring. her novels have rewritten the _ admirable and enduring. her novels have rewritten the rules _ admirable and enduring. her novels have rewritten the rules of - admirable and enduring. her novels have rewritten the rules of the - have rewritten the rules of the memoir. and traced on memories of class struggles and gender disparity. her debut was first published in the 1970s. it is a fictionalised account of the illegal abortion she hid from her family. she revisited that account 25 years later in another book which was turned into a film that won the top prize at last year's venice film festival. these books have been able to inspire women of all ages.

translation:— to inspire women of all ages. translation: ,, ., ~ ., translation: she talked about her exerience translation: she talked about her experience of— translation: she talked about her experience of having _ translation: she talked about her experience of having an _ translation: she talked about her experience of having an abortion - translation: she talked about her| experience of having an abortion and i think that is something that is very difficult to understand if you haven't experienced it, and the way she spoke about it was very realistic. ,, she spoke about it was very realistic-— she spoke about it was very realistic. ,, , , ., realistic. she seems a fitting choice. realistic. she seems a fitting choice- in — realistic. she seems a fitting choice. in a _ realistic. she seems a fitting choice. in a year _ realistic. she seems a fitting choice. in a year that - realistic. she seems a fitting choice. in a year that has - realistic. she seems a fitting l choice. in a year that has been marked by attacks on women's rights around the world. she said accepting this prize was also accepting responsibility to defend women. she said she would fight for women's rights to abortion and also praised women in iran for putting their lives on the line. translation: if lives on the line. translation: if the current furnished movement continues and is not repressed, things will change. —— feminist. we will say, how is it possible things like this can happen? she will say, how is it possible things like this can happen?— will say, how is it possible things like this can happen? she has said she uses language _ like this can happen? she has said she uses language as _ like this can happen? she has said she uses language as a _ like this can happen? she has said she uses language as a knife - like this can happen? she has said she uses language as a knife to i like this can happen? she has said i she uses language as a knife to tear apart the veils of imagination. that is a knife she will now wield to defend rights she says she never thought would be under attack.

almost 100 years agojack leslie became the first black player to be picked to play football for england. but his dream of actually playing never became a reality, because he was dropped before the game in a move campaigners say was motivated by racism. jack's legacy in the game has never been forgotten, and later today a statue of him will be unveiled outside his old club — plymouth argyle. jenny kumah reports. an argyle legend's coming home — nearly 100 years after he first played here. the statue was craned in earlier this week, and will soon be unveiled as a permanent memorial to jack leslie's legacy. he's got his arms out again and you just want to cuddle him, don't you? yeah. for his family, it's a special moment to see it in place for the first time. i think that'sjust going to be amazing. yeah. it's beautiful. we have to keep pinching ourselves to make sure it really is happening. and to see — to actually see the statue there, although it is covered at the moment, is... it's...mind—blowing.

and how emotional is it? 0h! we can't put into words the depth of feeling that we have. anyone says something nice and we're both bursting into tears, aren't we? which is ridiculous! they laugh jack leslie was the only black player in the english league at the time, and went on to captain argyle. the son of a jamaican father and english mother, he would have been the first black player to represent england. half a century would pass before viv anderson would make that breakthrough. jack leslie scored more than 130 goals during his time here at argyle — he's the club's fourth—highest goal—scorer — and it was in 1925 that he was called into the manager's office and told that he'd been selected to play for england. but when the papers came out, an aston villa player was in the team, jack was named as a travelling reserve. there was speculation at the time

that members of the fa had objected when they became aware of his ethnicity. because he was playing such brilliant football, he wasn't injured, he hadn't been suspended... the only issue was the colour of his skin. grandad himself was never bitter. he was obviously upset — it would have been the accolade of his career — but he just kind of shrugged it off, didn't he? he was just pleased to be a paid footballer, which... football was his passion, and to be paid for doing what you love — he was just happy to do that. campaigners say jack's story had been forgotten over the years — they raised more than £100,000 for this statue to raise awareness of his achievements. to see jack come home to - plymouth argyle isjust incredible. jack leslie was a true argyle legend, but also the story . of what happened to him with the england call—up| is an important story to be told, i think. .

and, you know, it's great that schoolchildren have been - learning about jack, - and that they're coming to the unveiling. and the storytelling. on the plinth itself that explains what what happened to him. as a young boy, i never heard anything about jack leslie, which is a shame, because i think i would have been inspired by him, by the story. ronnie mauge played for argyle in the 1990s, and scored their only goal at wembley. i received racial abuse up and down the country, so... and i thought it was bad then. but, you know, if you think — go back 60 years, 70 years, it must have been horrendous forjack. how far do you think we've come, and how much more work do you think needs to be done? racism isn't a football problem, it's a social problem. and until we start...we start looking at the social aspects of racism and we, like, coming together and talking about racism — you know, we've still got a lot of work to be done. and what lessons would you like

people to learn from this story? to hold your dream. to go out there and fight for your dream. don't ever give up. always go on there and fight. and it might take 100 years, but we've got here! they laugh jenny kumar, bbc news. in the northern hemisphere, it is now autumn. for millions of animals it will soon be time to hibernate, sleeping through the winter months and waiting for spring. at the katmai national park and preserve in the us state of alaska they take this time of year very seriously — especially when it comes to one type of animal in particular. the bbc�*s tim allman explains. it's been said you can never be too rich or too thin — tell that to the brown bears of southern alaska. they have to pile on the pounds in preparation for their winter hibernation. park rangers decided to encourage them, coming up with what they call fat bear week.

in early summer, the bear was skinny and late summer, it was fat. i thought, "wouldn't be fun if we let people decide "who was the fattest and most successful bear of the year?" this is otto, the reigning four times champion, this is otis, the reigning four times champion, seen at the start of summer in 2021. here he is a little more than six weeks later — a diet of mostly fresh salmon saw him balloon in size. brown bears can reach a weight of nearly 550 kilograms but getting to those sort of proportions is no easy feat. this is an opportunity to reflect on the work that brown bears need to put into surviving winter and to consider the different ways that they survive and the challenges they face in their lives. fat bear week will last until next tuesday when fat bear of the year be unveiled. their prize?

not much, except for a very long sleep. tim allman, bbc news. in a few moments the winner of the 2022 nobel prize in prize is announced at a news conference in oslo. this is the scene there. that announcement expected at the top of the hour. this is the scene there. that announcement expected at the top of the hour. you may know that the list of potential winners isn't revealed by the nobel committee. it is potential winners isn't revealed by the nobel committee.— potential winners isn't revealed by the nobel committee. it is all down to speculation _ the nobel committee. it is all down to speculation and _ the nobel committee. it is all down to speculation and perhaps - the nobel committee. it is all down to speculation and perhaps leaks i to speculation and perhaps leaks from people who have nominated certain individuals or groups. that announcement life for you in the next few minutes. right now let's check out the weather forecast. to premature first, that really sums up to premature first, that really sums up the day. some these guys around but dark clouds on the horizon will bring a few showers, most of us will get wet at some point. some of the heaviest

rain tied to this front which is moving southwards and eastwards. it is there you will see an hour or two of rain but within it a short spell of rain but within it a short spell of very intense rain and squally and gusty winds. it is across northern england and north—west wales, it will push two wells through today into the midlands by mid—afternoon. to the north, the sunshine comes back out but a scattering of showers, some heavy and thundery. to the south, doesn't quite reach east anglia, the southeast channel islands during the day. one or two showers here but overall very pleasant one for money with a bit of warmth in the sunshine, 19 or 20 celsius. no of the ringed band it will feel cooler, especially as we go through the day. these are the afternoon temperatures. this evening, down towards the south midlands, east anglia, the southern counties of england, heavy rain and gusty winds working through. clearing during the evening and for out a quieter night in the store. a

few showers in scotland, most dry but note the temperatures, these are in towns and cities. in rural parts it could go down to lower single figures. a fresh start at the weekend but a very pleasant one. high pressure building on, not fully in, just on the northern edge of that we will see a few showers, not as many as today. north—west scotland, northern ireland and north—west england getting some morning showers. many places still staying dry. the vast majority, a dry and pleasant saturday, a bit of cloud building but long spells of sunshine, temperatures around 1a to 17. noti sunshine, temperatures around 1a to 17. not1 million miles from where we should be at this stage of october. the ridge of high pressure holds on into sunday so a here but weather fronts returning holds on into sunday so a here but weatherfronts returning more rain after what has been a very wet week in the west of scotland. more rain to come on sunday. strong to gale force or severe —— my severe gale force or severe —— my severe gale force winds in scotland later. rain spinning into north—west england later. much of england and wales, a dry sunday. cloud amount is probably

greater than on saturday but temperatures up a little as the breeze picks up. a glimpse into next week, and really we have got bands of rain, strong winds pushing in on an strong jet stream. while we start the week and a relatively quiet note with sunshine mother will be some wet and very windy weather at times.

this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the winner of the nobel peace prize for 2022 is due to be announced in oslo in the next few minutes. let's go straight to that announcement.- let's go straight to that announcement. _, ., ., announcement. good morning, everyone- _ announcement. good morning, everyone- the _ announcement. good morning, everyone. the norwegian - announcement. good morning, | everyone. the norwegian nobel committee has decided to award the nobel peace prize for 2022 to one individual and two organisations. the peace prize laurier represent civil society in their home

countries.